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DOE OSTI2020

Chapter 7: Predictive Analytics in Future Power Systems: A Panorama and State-of-the-Art of Deep Learning Applications

The challenges surrounding the optimal operation of power systems are growing in various dimensions, due in part to increasingly distributed energy resources and a progression towards large-scale transportation electrification. Currently, the increasing uncertainties associated with both renewable energy generation and demand are largely being managed by increasing operational reserves - potentially at the cost of suboptimal economic conditions - in order to maintain the reliability of the system. This chapter looks at the big picture role of forecasting in power systems from generation to consumption and provides a comprehensive review of traditional approaches for forecasting generation and load in various contexts. This chapter then takes a deep dive into the state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning approaches for power systems forecasting. Furthermore, a case study of multi-time-horizon solar irradiance forecasting using deep learning is discussed in detail. Smart grids form the backbone of the future interdependent networks. For addressing the challenges associated with the operations of smart grid, development and wide adoption of machine learning and deep learning algorithms capable of producing better forecasting accuracies is urgently needed. Along with exploring the implementation and benefits of these approaches, this chapter also considers the strengths and limitations of deep learning algorithms for power systems forecasting applications. This chapter, thus, provides a panoramic view of state-of-the-art of predictive analytics in power systems in the context of future smart grid operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

The role of information structures in game-theoretic multi-agent learning

Multi-agent learning (MAL) studies how agents learn to behave optimally and adaptively from their experience when interacting with other agents in dynamic environments. The outcome of a MAL process is jointly determined by all agents’ decision-making. Hence, each agent needs to think strategically about others’ sequential moves, when planning future actions. The strategic interactions among agents makes MAL go beyond the direct extension of single-agent learning to multiple agents. With the strategic thinking, each agent aims to build a subjective model of others decision-making using its observations. Such modeling is directly influenced by agents’ perception during the learning process, which is called the information structure of the agent’s learning. As it determines the input to MAL processes, information structures play a significant role in the learning mechanisms of the agents. This review creates a taxonomy of MAL and establishes a unified and systematic way to understand MAL from the perspective of information structures. Here we define three fundamental components of MAL: the information structure (i.e., what the agent can observe), the belief generation (i.e., how the agent forms a belief about others based on the observations), as well as the policy generation (i.e., how the agent generates its policy based on its belief). In addition, this taxonomy enables the classification of a wide range of state-of-the-art algorithms into four categories based on the belief-generation mechanisms of the opponents, including stationary, conjectured, calibrated, and sophisticated opponents. We introduce Value of Information (VoI) as a metric to quantify the impact of different information structures on MAL. Finally, we discuss the strengths and limitations of algorithms from different categories and point to promising avenues of future research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Leveraging knowledge engineering and machine learning for microbial bio-manufacturing

Genome scale modeling (GSM) predicts the performance of microbial workhorses and helps identify beneficial gene targets. GSM integrated with intracellular flux dynamics, omics, and thermodynamics have shown remarkable progress in both elucidating complex cellular phenomena and computational strain design (CSD). Nonetheless, these models still show high uncertainty due to a poor understanding of innate pathway regulations, metabolic burdens, and other factors (such as stress tolerance and metabolite channeling). Besides, the engineered hosts may have genetic mutations or non-genetic variations in bioreactor conditions and thus CSD rarely foresees fermentation rate and titer. Metabolic models play important role in design-build-test-learn cycles for strain improvement, and machine learning (ML) may provide a viable complementary approach for driving strain design and deciphering cellular processes. In order to develop quality ML models, knowledge engineering leverages and standardizes the wealth of information in literature (e.g., genomic/phenomic data, synthetic biology strategies, and bioprocess variables). Data driven frameworks can offer new constraints for mechanistic models to describe cellular regulations, to design pathways, to search gene targets, and to estimate fermentation titer/rate/yield under specified growth conditions (e.g., mixing, nutrients, and O 2 ). Furthermore this review highlights the scope of information collections, database constructions, and machine learning techniques (such as deep learning and transfer learning), which may facilitate "Learn and Design" for strain development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep reinforcement learning control of hydraulic fracturing

Hydraulic fracturing is a technique to extract oil and gas from shale formations, and obtaining a uniform proppant concentration along the fracture is key to its productivity. Recently, various model predictive control schemes have been proposed to achieve this objective. But such controllers require an accurate and computationally efficient model which is difficult to obtain given the complexity of the process and uncertainties in the rock formation properties. In this article, we design a model-free data-based reinforcement learning controller which learns an optimal control policy through interactions with the process. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) controller is based on the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient algorithm that combines Deep-Q-network with actor-critic framework. In addition, we utilize dimensionality reduction and transfer learning to quicken the learning process. We show that the controller learns an optimal policy to obtain uniform proppant concentration despite the complex nature of the process while satisfying various input constraints.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microgrid energy scheduling under uncertain extreme weather: Adaptation from parallelized reinforcement learning agents

Microgrids are useful solutions for integrating renewable energy resources and providing seamless green electricity to minimize carbon footprint. In recent years, extreme weather events happened often worldwide and caused significant economic and societal losses. Such events bring uncertainties to the microgrid energy scheduling problems and increase the challenges of microgrid operation. Traditional optimization approaches suffer from the inaccuracy of the uncertain microgrid model and the unseen events. Existing reinforcement learning (RL) - based approaches are also hampered by the limited generalization and the increasing computational burden when stochastic formulations are required to accommodate the uncertainties. This paper proposes a new parallelized reinforcement learning (PRL) method based on the probabilistic events to handle the microgrid energy uncertainties. Specifically, several local learning agents are employed to interact with pertinent microgrid environments in a distributed manner and report outcomes to the global agent, which will optimize microgrid energy resources online during extreme events. The stochastic microgrid energy optimization problem is reformulated to include all possible scenarios with probabilities. The advantage estimate functions of learning agents are designed with a backward sweep to transfer the outcomes to the value function updating process. Two simulation studies, stochastic optimization and online testing, are performed to compare with several existing RL approaches. Results substantiate that the proposed PRL method can achieve up to 20% optimization performance improvement with 4 and 28 times less computation cost than Q-learning with experience replay and multi-agent Q-learning approaches, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Guided Continual Learning for Predicting Emerging Aqueous Organic Redox Flow Battery Material Performance

Aqueous organic redox flow batteries (AORFBs) have gained popularity in renewable energy storage due to their low cost, environmental friendliness and scalability. The rapid discovery of aqueous soluble organic (ASO) redox-active materials necessitates efficient machine learning surrogates for predicting battery performance. The physics-guided continual learning (PGCL) method proposed in this study can incrementally learn data from new ASO electrolytes while addressing catastrophic forgetting issues in conventional machine learning. Using a AORFB database with a thousand potential materials generated by a 780 $\text{cm}^2$ interdigitated cell model, PGCL incorporates AORFB physics to optimize the continual learning task formation and training strategies to retain previously learned battery material knowledge. Finally, the trained PGCL demonstrates its capability in assessing emerging ASO materials within the established parameter space when evaluated with the dihydroxyphenazine isomers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

An integrated manifold learning approach for high-dimensional data feature extractions and its applications to online process monitoring of additive manufacturing

As an effective dimension reduction and feature extraction technique, manifold learning has been successfully applied to high-dimensional data analysis. With the rapid development of sensor technology, a large amount of high-dimensional data such as image streams can be easily available. Thus, a promising application of manifold learning is in the field of sensor signal analysis, particular for the applications of online process monitoring and control using high-dimensional data. The objective of this study is to develop a manifold learning-based feature extraction method for process monitoring of Additive Manufacturing (AM) using online sensor data. Due to the non-parametric nature of most existing manifold learning methods, their performance in terms of computational efficiency, as well as noise resistance has yet to be improved. To address this issue, this study proposes an integrated manifold learning approach termed multi-kernel metric learning embedded isometric feature mapping (MKML-ISOMAP) for dimension reduction and feature extraction of online high-dimensional sensor data such as images. Based on the extracted features with the utilization of supervised classification and regression methods, an online process monitoring methodology for AM is implemented to identify the actual process quality status. Finally, in the numerical simulation and real-world case studies, the proposed method demonstrates excellent performance in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Based Resilience Testing of an Address Randomization Cyber Defense

Moving target defenses (MTDs) are widely used as an active defense strategy for thwarting cyberattacks on cyber-physical systems by increasing diversity of software and network paths. Recently, machine Learning (ML) and deep Learning (DL) models have been demonstrated to defeat some of the cyber defenses by learning attack detection patterns and defense strategies. It raises concerns about the susceptibility of MTD to ML and DL methods. Here, in this article, we analyze the effectiveness of ML and DL models when it comes to deciphering MTD methods and ultimately evade MTD-based protections in real-time systems. Specifically, we consider a MTD algorithm that periodically randomizes address assignments within the MIL-STD-1553 protocol—a military standard serial data bus. Two ML and DL-based tasks are performed on MIL-STD-1553 protocol to measure the effectiveness of the learning models in deciphering the MTD algorithm: 1) determining whether there is an address assignments change i.e., whether the given system employs a MTD protocol and if it does 2) predicting the future address assignments. The supervised learning models (random forest and k-nearest neighbors) effectively detected the address assignment changes and classified whether the given system is equipped with a specified MTD protocol. On the other hand, the unsupervised learning model (K-means) was significantly less effective. The DL model (long short-term memory) was able to predict the future addresses with varied effectiveness based on MTD algorithm's settings.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2019

Scalable Deep Learning via I/O Analysis and Optimization

Scalable deep neural network training has been gaining prominence because of the increasing importance of deep learning in a multitude of scientific and commercial domains. Consequently, a number of researchers have investigated techniques to optimize deep learning systems. Much of the prior work has focused on runtime and algorithmic enhancements to optimize the computation and communication. Despite these enhancements, however, deep learning systems still suffer from scalability limitations, particularly with respect to data I/O. This situation is especially true for training models where the computation can be effectively parallelized, leaving I/O as the major bottleneck. In fact, our analysis shows that I/O can take up to 90% of the total training time. Thus, in this article, we first analyze LMDB, the most widely used I/O subsystem of deep learning frameworks, to understand the causes of this I/O inefficiency. Based on our analysis, we propose LMDBIO—an optimized I/O plugin for scalable deep learning. LMDBIO includes six novel optimizations that together address the various shortcomings in existing I/O for deep learning. Lastly, our experimental results show that LMDBIO significantly outperforms LMDB in all cases and improves overall application performance by up to 65-fold on a 9,216-core system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Identifying intragenic functional modules of genomic variations associated with cancer phenotypes by learning representation of association networks

Background Genome-wide Association Studies (GWAS) aims to uncover the link between genomic variation and phenotype. They have been actively applied in cancer biology to investigate associations between variations and cancer phenotypes, such as susceptibility to certain types of cancer and predisposed responsiveness to specific treatments. Since GWAS primarily focuses on finding associations between individual genomic variations and cancer phenotypes, there are limitations in understanding the mechanisms by which cancer phenotypes are cooperatively affected by more than one genomic variation. Results This paper proposes a network representation learning approach to learn associations among genomic variations using a prostate cancer cohort. The learned associations are encoded into representations that can be used to identify functional modules of genomic variations within genes associated with early- and late-onset prostate cancer. The proposed method was applied to a prostate cancer cohort provided by the Veterans Administration’s Million Veteran Program to identify candidates for functional modules associated with early-onset prostate cancer. The cohort included 33,159 prostate cancer patients, 3181 early-onset patients, and 29,978 late-onset patients. The reproducibility of the proposed approach clearly showed that the proposed approach can improve the model performance in terms of robustness. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to use a network representation learning approach to learn associations among genomic variations within genes. Associations learned in this way can lead to an understanding of the underlying mechanisms of how genomic variations cooperatively affect each cancer phenotype. This method can reveal unknown knowledge in the field of cancer biology and can be utilized to design more advanced cancer-targeted therapies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

On Transfer Learning Of Neural Networks Using Bi-Fidelity Data For Uncertainty Propagation

Due to their high degree of expressiveness, neural networks have recently been used as surrogate models for mapping inputs of an engineering system to outputs of interest. Once trained, neural networks are computationally inexpensive to evaluate and remove the need for repeated evaluations of computationally expensive models in uncertainty quantification applications. However, given the highly parameterized construction of neural networks, especially deep neural networks, accurate training often requires large amounts of simulation data that may not be available in the case of computationally expensive systems. In this paper, to alleviate this issue for uncertainty propagation, we explore the application of transfer learning techniques using training data generated from both high- and low-fidelity models. We explore two strategies for coupling these two datasets during the training procedure, namely, the standard transfer learning and the bi-fidelity-weighted learning. In the former approach, a neural network model mapping the inputs to the outputs of interest is trained based on the low-fidelity data. The high-fidelity data are then used to adapt the parameters of the upper layer(s) of the low-fidelity network, or train a simpler neural network to map the output of the low-fidelity network to that of the high-fidelity model. In the latter approach, the entire low-fidelity network parameters are updated using data generated via a Gaussian process model trained with a small high-fidelity dataset. The parameter updates are performed via a variant of stochastic gradient descent with learning rates given by the Gaussian process model. Using three numerical examples, we illustrate the utility of these bi-fidelity transfer learning methods where we focus on accuracy improvement achieved by transfer learning over standard training approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adapting Technology Learning Curves for Prospective Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessments of Emerging Carbon Capture and Utilization Pathways

Comparisons of emerging carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies with equivalent incumbent technologies are necessary to support technology developers and to help policy-makers design appropriate long-term incentives to mitigate climate change through the deployment of CCU. In particular, early-stage CCU technologies must prove their economic viability and environmental reduction potential compared to already-deployed technologies. These comparisons can be misleading, as emerging technologies typically experience a drastic increase in performance and decrease in cost and greenhouse gas emissions as they develop from research to mass-market deployment due to various forms of learning. These changes complicate the interpretation of early techno-economic assessments (TEAs) and life cycle assessments (LCAs) of emerging CCU technologies. The effects of learning over time or cumulative production themselves can be quantitatively described using technology learning curves (TLCs). While learning curve approaches have been developed for various technologies, a harmonized methodology for using TLCs in TEA and LCA for CCU in particular is required. To address this, we describe a methodology that incorporates TLCs into TEA and LCA to forecast the environmental and economic performance of emerging CCU technologies. This methodology is based on both an evaluation of the state of the art of learning curve assessment and a literature review of TLC approaches developed in various manufacturing and energy generation sectors. Additionally, we demonstrate how to implement this methodology using a case study on a CO 2 mineralization pathway. Finally, commentary is provided on how researchers, technology developers, and LCA and TEA practitioners can advance the use of TLCs to allow for consistent, high-resolution modeling of technological learning for CCU going forward and enable holistic assessments and fairer comparisons with other climate technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

ARM-IRL: Adaptive Resilience Metric Quantification Using Inverse Reinforcement Learning

The resilience of safety-critical systems is gaining importance due to the rise in cyber and physical threats, especially within critical infrastructure. Traditional static resilience metrics may not capture dynamic system states, leading to inaccurate assessments and ineffective responses to cyber threats. This work aims to develop a data-driven, adaptive method for resilience metric learning. We propose a data-driven approach using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to learn a single, adaptive resilience metric. The method infers a reward function from expert control actions. Unlike previous approaches using static weights or fuzzy logic, this work applies adversarial inverse reinforcement learning (AIRL), training a generator and discriminator in parallel to learn the reward structure and derive an optimal policy. The proposed approach is evaluated on multiple scenarios: optimal communication network rerouting, power distribution network reconfiguration, and cyber–physical restoration of critical loads using the IEEE 123-bus system. The adaptive, learned resilience metric enables faster critical load restoration in comparison to conventional RL approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Contrastive Machine Learning with Gamma Spectroscopy Data Augmentations for Detecting Shielded Radiological Material Transfers

Data analysis techniques can be powerful tools for rapidly analyzing data and extracting information that can be used in a latent space for categorizing observations between classes of data. Machine learning models that exploit learned data relationships can address a variety of nuclear nonproliferation challenges like the detection and tracking of shielded radiological material transfers. The high resource cost of manually labeling radiation spectra is a hindrance to the rapid analysis of data collected from persistent monitoring and to the adoption of supervised machine learning methods that require large volumes of curated training data. Instead, contrastive self-supervised learning on unlabeled spectra can enhance models that are built on limited labeled radiation datasets. This work demonstrates that contrastive machine learning is an effective technique for leveraging unlabeled data in detecting and characterizing nuclear material transfers demonstrated on radiation measurements collected at an Oak Ridge National Laboratory testbed, where sodium iodide detectors measure gamma radiation emitted by material transfers between the High Flux Isotope Reactor and the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center. Label-invariant data augmentations tailored for gamma radiation detection physics are used on unlabeled spectra to contrastively train an encoder, learning a complex, embedded state space with self-supervision. A linear classifier is then trained on a limited set of labeled data to distinguish transfer spectra between byproducts and tracked nuclear material using representations from the contrastively trained encoder. The optimized hyperparameter model achieves a balanced accuracy score of 80.30%. Any given model—that is, a trained encoder and classifier—shows preferential treatment for specific subclasses of transfer types. Regardless of the classifier complexity, a supervised classifier using contrastively trained representations achieves higher accuracy than using spectra when trained and tested on limited labeled data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2015

Dynamic Modeling of Learning in Emerging Energy Industries: The Example of Advanced Biofuels in the United States; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

This paper (and its supplemental model) presents novel approaches to modeling interactions and related policies among investment, production, and learning in an emerging competitive industry. New biomass-to-biofuels pathways are being developed and commercialized to support goals for U.S. advanced biofuel use, such as those in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. We explore the impact of learning rates and techno-economics in a learning model excerpted from the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), developed by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to explore the impact of biofuel policy on the evolution of the biofuels industry. The BSM integrates investment, production, and learning among competing biofuel conversion options that are at different stages of industrial development. We explain the novel methods used to simulate the impact of differing assumptions about mature industry techno-economics and about learning rates while accounting for the different maturity levels of various conversion pathways. A sensitivity study shows that the parameters studied (fixed capital investment, process yield, progress ratios, and pre-commercial investment) exhibit highly interactive effects, and the system, as modeled, tends toward market dominance of a single pathway due to competition and learning dynamics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Dynamic Modeling of Learning in Emerging Energy Industries: The Example of Advanced Biofuels in the United States: Preprint

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Dynamic Modeling of Learning in Emerging Energy Industries: The Example of Advanced Biofuels in the United States

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

GraMeR: Gra ph Me ta R einforcement learning for multi-objective influence maximization

Influence maximization (IM) is a combinatorial problem of identifying a subset of seed nodes in a network (graph), which when activated, provide a maximal spread of influence in the network for a given diffusion model and a budget for seed set size. IM has numerous applications such as viral marketing, epidemic control, sensor placement and other network-related tasks. However, its practical uses are limited due to the computational complexity of current algorithms. Recently, deep reinforcement learning has been leveraged to solve IM in order to ease the computational burden. However, there are serious limitations in current approaches, including narrow IM formulation that only consider influence via spread and ignore self-activation, low scalability to large graphs, and lack of generalizability across graph families leading to a large running time for every test network. In this work, we address these limitations through a unique approach that involves: (1) Formulating a generic IM problem as a Markov decision process that handles both intrinsic and influence activations; (2)incorporating generalizability via meta-learning across graph families. There are previous works that combine deep reinforcement learning with graph neural network, but this work solves a more realistic IM problem and incorporates generalizability across graphs via meta reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments are carried out in various standard networks to validate performance of the proposed Graph Meta Reinforcement learning (GraMeR) framework. Finally, the results indicate that GraMeR is multiple orders faster and generic than conventional approaches when applied on small to medium scale graphs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗