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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific

Abstract We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model‐analog hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST; 1961–2015) and precipitation (1979–2015) at leads of 0–12 months, generated by 28 different models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model‐analog forecast skill has been demonstrated to match or even exceed traditional assimilation‐initialized forecast skill in a given model. Models with the most realistic mean states and interannual variability for SST, precipitation, and 10‐m zonal winds in the equatorial Pacific also generate the most skillful precipitation forecasts in the central equatorial Pacific and the best SST forecasts at 6‐month or longer leads. These results show direct links between model climatological biases and seasonal forecast errors, demonstrating that model‐analog hindcast skill—that is, how well a model can capture the observed evolution of tropical Pacific anomalies—is an informative El Niño/Southern Oscillation metric for climate simulations.

Ding, Hui↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cloud and Precipitation Properties of MCSs Along the Meiyu Frontal Zone in Central and Southern China and Their Associated Large-Scale Environments

This study focuses on investigating the cloud and precipitation features of Meiyu mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their relation to the large-scale environments in central and southern China using satellite observations and reanalysis data during the period 2014–2018. MCSs from two different locations, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and Southern China (SC), are examined separately. The Meiyu MCSs have a mean precipitation rate of 3.6 mm/hr and contribute 20% to 60% of the total precipitation during the Meiyu period. The diurnal cycle of Meiyu MCSs shows a maximum precipitation amount in the morning, which is associated with the enhanced nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) overnight. Although the synoptic setups in YRB and SC are found to be similar when normalized around the MCS initiation locations, MCSs exhibit some differences in terms of the cloud top height, precipitation rate, and duration, which are likely by the differences in the local forcing. Large interannual variations are found in MCSs' number, cloud size, lifetime, and rainfall intensity, which is found to be associated with the interannual variabilities in the large-scale environments. By comparing the large-scale environments with climatological mean states, we find that the year with the most intense MCS activity during the study period is characterized by an intensified southwesterly LLJ, which increases the moisture transport from the Indian Ocean and an enhancement of the midtropospheric westerly jet, which induces adiabatic ascent along the Meiyu front, creating more favorable conditions for convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting Regional Carbon Cycle Responses to Seasonal Climate Anomalies Across the East-West Divide of Temperate North America

Across temperate North America, interannual variability (IAV) in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and their relationship with environmental drivers are poorly understood. Here, we examine IAV in GPP and NEE and their relationship to environmental drivers using two state-of-the-science flux products: NEE constrained by surface and space-based atmospheric CO 2 measurements over 2010-2015 and satellite up-scaled GPP from FluxSat over 2001-2017. We show that the arid western half of temperate North America provides a larger contribution to IAV in GPP (104% of east) and NEE (127% of east) than the eastern half, in spite of smaller magnitude of annual mean GPP and NEE. This occurs because anomalies in western ecosystems are temporally coherent across the growing season leading to an amplification of GPP and NEE. In contrast, IAV in GPP and NEE in eastern ecosystems is dominated by seasonal compensation effects, associated with opposite responses to temperature anomalies in spring and summer. Terrestrial biosphere models in the MsTMIP ensemble generally capture these differences between eastern and western temperate North America, although there is considerable spread between models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical cyclone activity using the ENSO Longitude Index

Past studies have indicated that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a major role in the interannual variability of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. The primary mechanism being the eastward displacement of the warm pool during an El Nino, which carries warm water into that basin thereby creating favorable oceanic conditions. Despite this, the question of whether an accurate knowledge of ENSO enhances seasonal predictabiity of Eastern Pacific hurricanes has not been addressed specifically. In this study, we show that unlike traditional indices of ENSO, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) is able to predict Eastern Pacific hurricane activity at significant lead times. By capturing changes in the location of deep convection and associated thermocline processes more accurately, ELI explains the most variability in the upper-ocean heat content in the main development region of the Eastern Pacific basin compared to other ENSO indices. These results have substantial implications for operational seasonal forecasts of Eastern Pacific hurricanes.

Balaguru, Karthik↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forest Canopy Density Effects on Snowpack Across the Climate Gradients of the Western United States Mountain Ranges

Limitations inherent to field studies such as limited spatial and temporal coverage has made it very challenging, if not impossible, to explicitly disentangle the effect of canopy density from climate on snowpack dynamics. Hence, our understanding of how variations in canopy density can affect snow processes under diverse climate conditions has been limited. To address this knowledge gap, this study uses a physics-based modeling approach to represent most key processes that drive snow accumulation and melt in the open and forest with varied forest density, across the climate gradients of the Western U.S. mountain ranges, as represented by 228 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) locations. Simulations suggest that, under most winter climate conditions, canopy density exerts a strong influence on under-canopy snowpack dynamics and their controlling processes. Changing canopy density can shift the direction of the modeled differential peak snow accumulation and snow disappearance date (SDD) between the open and forest. For example, while simulated snowpack lasts longer in the open than the high-density forest at most wet/warm and dry/cold locations by up to 55 days, about 90% of all locations show a longer snow duration in the low-density forest by up to 27 days as compared to the open. Interannual variability in climate can also change the magnitude and direction of canopy impact on snow processes. By comparing model simulations to published field observations, and we also identify conditions that require additional field observations to improve process-scale understanding of forest-snow interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Signatures on Lake And Wetland Size Distributions in Arctic Deltas

Abstract Understanding how thermokarst lakes on arctic river deltas will respond to rapid warming is critical for projecting how carbon storage and fluxes will change in those vulnerable environments. Yet, this understanding is currently limited partly due to the complexity of disentangling significant interannual variability from the longer‐term surface water signatures on the landscape, using the short summertime window of optical spaceborne observations. Here, we rigorously separate perennial lakes from ephemeral wetlands on 12 arctic deltas and report distinct size distributions and climate trends for the two waterbodies. Namely, we find a lognormal distribution for lakes and a power‐law distribution for wetlands, consistent with a simple proportionate growth model and inundated topography, respectively. Furthermore, while no trend with temperature is found for wetlands, a statistically significant decreasing trend of mean lake size with warmer temperatures is found, attributed to colder deltas having deeper and thicker permafrost preserving larger lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Phase-Locking of Tropical North Atlantic and the Contribution of ENSO

The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) is characterized by significant interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST), which is phase-locked to the boreal spring. In this study, the phase-locking of TNA is investigated by adopting a linear stochastic-dynamical model (SDM) using seasonally modulated TNA feedbacks together with the seasonal modulation of ENSO forcing. In the observations, the role of local TNA feedbacks and ENSO forcing in TNA phase-locking are equivalently important with both preferring the peak of TNA variability to appear in the boreal spring. Besides, the seasonal modulation of TNA feedbacks and ENSO forcing strength are both mainly controlled by thermodynamic processes. In most climate models, the contribution of ENSO on TNA phase-locking is weaker than that in observations. The strength of ENSO-related TNA phase-locking is highly correlated with the relationship between ENSO and TNA, which is mainly determined by the amplitude of ENSO and its teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Soil Warming and Permafrost Thaw Increase CH 4 Emissions in an Upland Tundra Ecosystem

Rapid Arctic warming is causing permafrost to thaw and exposing large quantities of soil organic carbon (C) to potential decomposition. In dry upland tundra systems, subsidence from thawing permafrost can increase surface soil moisture resulting in higher methane (CH 4 ) emissions from newly waterlogged soils. The proportion of C released as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 remains uncertain as previously dry landscapes transition to a thawed state, resulting in both wetter and drier microsites. To address how thaw and moisture interact to affect total C emissions, here we measured CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from paired chambers across thaw and moisture gradients created by nine years of experimental soil warming in interior Alaska. Cumulative growing season (May–September) CH 4 emissions were elevated at both wetter (216.1–1,099.4 mg CH 4 -C m –2 ) and drier (129.7–392.3 mg CH 4 -C m –2 ) deeply thawed microsites relative to shallow thaw (55.6–215.7 mg CH 4 -C m –2 ) and increased with higher deep soil temperatures and permafrost thaw depth. Interannual variability in CH4 emissions was driven by wet conditions in graminoid-dominated plots that generated >70% of emissions in a wet year. Shoulder season emissions were equivalent to growing season CH 4 emissions rates in the deeply thawed, warmed soils, highlighting the importance of non-growing season CH 4 emissions. Net C sink potential was reduced in deeply thawed wet plots by 4%–42%, and by 3.5%–8% in deeply thawed drier plots due to anaerobic respiration, suggesting that some dry upland tundra landscapes may transition into stronger CH 4 sources in a warming Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Diurnal Dynamics of Gross Primary Productivity Using Observations From the Advanced Baseline Imager on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite‐R Series at an Oak Savanna Ecosystem

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest flux in the global carbon cycle and satellite-based GPP estimates have long been used to study the trends and interannual variability of GPP. With recent updates to geostationary satellites, we can now explore the diurnal variability of GPP at a comparable spatial resolution to polar-orbiting satellites and at temporal frequencies comparable to eddy covariance (EC) tower sites. We used observations from the Advanced Baseline Imager on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) to test the ability of subdaily satellite data to capture the shifts in the diurnal course of GPP at an oak savanna EC site in California, USA that is subject to seasonal soil moisture declines. We compared three methods to estimate GPP: (a) a light-use efficiency model, (b) a linear relationship between the product of near-infrared reflectance of vegetation and photosynthetically active radiation (LIN-NIR v P) and EC tower GPP, and (c) a light response curve (LRC-NIR v P) between NIR v P and EC GPP. The LRC-NIR v P achieved the lowest mean absolute error for winter (2 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), spring (2.51 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), summer (1.43 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), and fall (1.35 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ). The ecosystem experienced the largest shift in daily peak GPP in relation to the peak of incoming solar radiation toward the morning hours during the dry summers. The LRC-NIRvP and the light-use efficiency model were in agreement with these patterns of a shift in peak daily GPP toward the morning hours during summer. Our results can help develop diurnal estimates of GPP from geostationary satellites that are sensitive to fluctuating environmental conditions during the day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1

Abstract The present study examines the characteristics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events represented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), DOE’s new Earth system model. The coupled E3SMv1 realistically simulates the eastward propagation of precipitation and moist static energy (MSE) anomalies associated with the MJO. As in observations, horizontal moisture advection and longwave radiative feedback are found to be the dominant processes in E3SMv1 that lead to the eastward movement and maintenance of the MJO MSE anomalies, respectively. Modulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Maritime Continent region by the MJO is also well represented in the model despite systematic biases in the magnitude and phase of the precipitation diurnal cycle. On the MJO impact over the midlatitude, E3SMv1 reasonably captures the pattern of the MJO teleconnections across the North Pacific and North America, with improvement in the performance in a high‐resolution version, despite the magnitude being a bit weaker than the observed. Regarding the interannual variability of the MJO, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of the zonal extent of MJO’s eastward propagation, as well as associated changes in the mean state moisture gradient in the tropical west Pacific, are well reproduced in the model. However, MJO in E3SMv1 exhibits no sensitivity to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the MJO propagation characteristics being almost identical between easterly QBO and westerly QBO years. Processes that have been suggested as critical to MJO simulation are also examined by utilizing recently developed process‐oriented diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hierarchy of Global Ocean Models Coupled to CESM1

Abstract We develop a hierarchy of simplified ocean models for coupled ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The hierarchy has four members: a slab ocean model, a mixed‐layer model (MLM) with entrainment and detrainment, an Ekman MLM, and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Flux corrections of heat and salt are applied to the simplified models ensuring that all hierarchy members have the same climatology. We diagnose the needed flux corrections from auxiliary simulations in which we restore the temperature and salinity to the daily climatology obtained from a target CESM1 simulation. The resulting three‐dimensional corrections contain the interannual variability fluxes that maintain the correct vertical gradients of temperature and salinity in the tropics. We find that the inclusion of mixed‐layer entrainment and Ekman flow produces sea surface temperature and surface air temperature fields whose means and variances are progressively more similar to those produced by the target CESM1 simulation. We illustrate the application of the hierarchy to the problem of understanding the response of the climate system to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We find that the shifts in the positions of the mid‐latitude westerly jet and of the Inter‐tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to sea‐ice loss depend critically on upper ocean processes. Specifically, heat uptake associated with the mixed‐layer entrainment influences the shift in the westerly jet and ITCZ. Moreover, the shift of ITCZ is sensitive to the form of Ekman flow parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, and El Niño and the negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons may change in the future using the high resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We performed atmosphere‐only simulations forced by sea‐surface temperature patterns characteristic of La Niña and the positive AMM jointly, and El Niño and the negative AMM jointly, in historical and future climates. Projected Atlantic TCs become more frequent in the future by approximately 34% during El Niño and negative AMM and by 66% during La Niña and positive AMM, with a significant increase in the portion of intense TCs. Warmer SSTs increase TC potential intensity, with reduced wind shear and increased mid‐tropospheric humidity further supporting TC activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Clustering of Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western United States

Abstract The serial occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the US West Coast can lead to prolonged and exacerbated hydrologic impacts, threatening flood‐control and water‐supply infrastructure due to soil saturation and diminished recovery time between storms. Here a statistical approach for quantifying subseasonal temporal clustering among extreme events is applied to a 41‐year (1979–2019) wintertime AR catalog across the western United States (US). Observed AR occurrence, compared against a randomly distributed AR timeseries with the same average event density, reveals temporal clustering at a greater‐than‐random rate across the western US with a distinct geographical pattern. Compared to the Pacific Northwest, significant AR clusters over the northern Coastal Range of California and Sierra Nevada are more frequent and occur over longer time periods. Clusters along the California Coastal Range typically persist for 2 weeks, are composed of 4–5 ARs per cluster, and account for over 85% of total AR occurrence. Across the northwest Coast‐Cascade Ranges, clusters account for ∼50% of total AR occurrence, typically last 8–10 days, and contain 3–4 individual AR events. Based on precipitation data from a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling of reanalysis, the fractions of total and extreme hourly precipitation attributable to AR clusters are largest along the northern California coast and in the Sierra Nevada. Interannual variability among clusters highlights their importance for determining whether a particular water year is anomalously wet or dry. The mechanisms behind this unusual clustering are unclear and require further research.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Present‐Day Anthropogenic Total Iron Emissions Using Model and Observations

Abstract Iron emissions from human activities, such as oil combustion and smelting, affect the Earth's climate and marine ecosystems. These emissions are difficult to quantify accurately due to a lack of observations, particularly in remote ocean regions. In this study, we used long‐term, near‐source observations in areas with a dominance of anthropogenic iron emissions in various parts of the world to better estimate the total amount of anthropogenic iron emissions. We also used a statistical source apportionment method to identify the anthropogenic components and their sub‐sources from bulk aerosol observations in the United States. We find that the estimates of anthropogenic iron emissions are within a factor of 3 in most regions compared to previous inventory estimates. Under‐ or overestimation varied by region and depended on the number of sites, interannual variability, and the statistical filter choice. Smelting‐related iron emissions are overestimated by a factor of 1.5 in East Asia compared to previous estimates. More long‐term iron observations and the consideration of the influence of dust and wildfires could help reduce the uncertainty in anthropogenic iron emissions estimates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Topography‐Driven Water Redistribution on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in California Through Ecosystem Responses

Abstract Lateral subsurface flow plays an essential role in sustaining the terrestrial ecosystem, but it is not explicitly represented in most Earth System Models. In this study, we implemented an explicit lateral saturated flow model into the E3SM land model (ELM). The model explicitly describes lateral flow in the saturated zone by representing, for each model grid, an idealized hillslope consisting of five hydrologically connected soil columns. We conducted three model experiments driven by 0.125° atmospheric forcing data during 1980–2015 over California using models of the default ELM, a modified version of ELM to enhance infiltration, and the model with the lateral saturated flow model. The simulated runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the three simulations were evaluated against available observations, and the model explicitly representing lateral flow performs best. The new model produces greater gridcell‐averaged evapotranspiration especially over the mountainous regions with moderate relief and seasonally dry climates. Most importantly, it improves the modeled seasonal variations, interannual variabilities, and the recent decadal decline of TWSA. Many of these improvements can be attributed to the enhanced ecosystem resilience to droughts as demonstrated by transpiration increases caused by lateral flow. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that subsurface runoff is most sensitive to the ratio between horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, followed by hillslope planforms (convergent, divergent, and uniform), number of columns, and lower boundary conditions. Future work should effectively characterize hillslopes in global models and explore the long‐term influences of lateral water movement on modeled biogeochemical cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A New Framework for the Attribution of Air‐Sea CO 2 Exchange

Abstract The air‐sea transfer of carbon dioxide can be viewed as a dynamic system through which atmospheric and oceanic processes push surface waters away from thermodynamic equilibrium, while diffusive gas transfer pulls them back toward local equilibrium. These push/pull processes drive significant sub‐seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variability in air‐sea carbon fluxes, the quantification of which is critical both for diagnosing the ocean response to fossil fuel emissions and for attempts to mitigate anthropogenic climate disruption through intentional modification of surface ocean biogeochemistry. In this study, we present a new approach for attributing air‐sea carbon fluxes to specific mechanisms. The new framework is first applied to a two‐box ocean nutrient and carbon cycle model as an illustrative example. Next, outputs from a regional eddy‐resolving model of the Southern Ocean are analyzed. The roles of multiple physical and biogeochemical processes are identified. The decomposition of the seasonal air‐sea carbon flux shows the dominant role of biological carbon pumps that are partially compensated by the transport convergence. Finally, the framework is used to diagnose the response to mesoscale iron and alkalinity release, explicitly quantifying transport feedback and eventual impacts on net air‐sea carbon flux. Ocean carbon transport has divergent influences between iron and alkalinity release, due to opposing near‐surface gradients of dissolved inorganic carbon. We suggest that our attribution framework may be a useful analytical technique for monitoring natural ocean carbon fluxes and quantifying the impacts of human intervention on the ocean carbon cycle.

Ito, Takamitsu [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sc↗