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At least 487 records · Page 27

Exploration Capabilities Data Analysis: An Integrated Approach

In preparation for humanity’s return to the Moon, it is necessary to advance technologies and capabilities that will allow for human sustainability on the lunar surface, as well as on eventual missions to send humans to Mars. Guided by Space Policy Directive-1 and through the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) Artemis program, the advancement and development of technologies on the lunar surface will be leveraged towards technologies and knowledge needed for humans to successfully and safely go to Mars and return. In order to understand the capability needs for lunar and Mars missions, the Capabilities Integration Team identifies integration approaches and overlaps between missions to develop strategies for advancing key capabilities that support those needs. Since 2013, the Capabilities Integration Team has reached out to subject matter experts, principal technologists, and system capability leadership teams throughout NASA to gather information about the critical technologies and capabilities needed in order to support the lunar and Mars exploration missions. To properly gather this data, the Capabilities Integration Team used a capability-driven approach to identify gaps between the current state of the art and the needs of proposed exploration missions, as well as activities that may close those gaps. These inputs are used to shape technology investment strategies and are incorporated in missions to the lunar and Mars surfaces. Data collected included: gap definitions and identifying information; gap closure information and metrics for success; mapping of gaps to elements of NASA's Artemis program and future exploration architecture. . The data collected, specifically from the technology gap list, has been used to support the NASA Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution processes, as well as the NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate Strategic Technology Plans. This paper discusses the integration approach used by the Capabilities Integration Team to identify current capability gaps for the Moon to Mars architecture and what capabilities exist or must be developed to support those architecture needs. In addition, this paper also details the performance, gap characterization, current capability gap closure opportunities, and risk impacts towards Artemis, and the overall Moon to Mars architecture.

Gregory Benjamin↗

The INTEGRAL view on Black Hole X-ray Binaries

INTEGRAL is an ESA mission in fundamental astrophysics that was launched in October 2002. It has been in orbit for over 18 years, during which it has been observing the high-energy sky with a set of instruments specifically designed to probe the emission from hard X-ray and softγ-ray sources. This paper is devoted to the subject of black hole binaries, which are among the most important sources that populate the high-energy sky. We present a review of the scientific literature based on INTEGRAL data, which has significantly advanced our knowledge in the field of relativistic astrophysics. We briefly summarise the state-of-the-art of the study of black hole binaries, with a particular focus on the topics closer to the INTEGRAL science. We then give an overview of the results obtained by INTEGRAL and by other observatories on a number of sources of importance in the field. Finally, we review the main results obtained over the past 18 years on all the black hole binaries that INTEGRAL has observed. We conclude with a summary of the main contributions of INTEGRAL to the field, and on the future perspectives

S. E. Motta↗

Evaluation of Near Singular Integrals for Computational Electromagnetics by Dimensionality Reduction

With the need for ever faster codes, a limiting factor that must be dealt with is the accurate yet efficient evaluation of interaction integrals between the more problematic near-field elements. Several recent works have together shown that all evaluations of source potential integrals and their derivatives for the most common bases and elements can be reduced to the evaluation of boundary line integrals; these can be evaluated by Gauss-Legendre quadrature, though integrand-smoothing transforms are often needed to accelerate their computation. In this paper, we modify the reported approach to eliminate cancellation errors in the line integral integrand, reinterpret the integral as a vertex function, and study the scalar potential integral form under the sinh transform and static subtraction acceleration methods.

D R Wilton↗

INTEGRAL reloaded: Spacecraft, instruments and ground system

The European Space Agency’s INTErnational Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory (ESA/INTEGRAL) was launched aboard a Proton-DM2 rocket on 17 October 2002 at 06:41 CEST, from Baikonur in Kazakhstan. Since then, INTEGRAL has been providing long, uninterrupted observations (up to about 47 h, or 170 ksec, per satellite orbit of 2.7 days) with a large field-of-view (FOV, fully coded: 100 deg), millisecond time resolution, keV energy resolution, polarization measurements, as well as additional wavelength coverage at optical wavelengths. This is realized by two main instruments in the 15 keV to 10 MeV energy range, the spectrometer SPI (spectral resolution 3 keV at 1.8 MeV) and the imager IBIS (angular resolution: 12 arcmin FWHM), complemented by X-ray (JEM-X; 3–35 keV) and optical (OMC; Johnson V-band) monitor instruments. All instruments are co-aligned to simultaneously observe the target region. A particle radiation monitor (IREM) measures charged particle fluxes near the spacecraft. The Anti-coincidence subsystems of the main instruments, built to reduce the background, are also very efficient all-sky γ-ray detectors, which provide virtually omni-directional monitoring above ~75 keV. Besides the long, scheduled observations, INTEGRAL can rapidly (within a couple of hours) re-point and conduct Target of Opportunity (ToO) observations on a large variety of sources. INTEGRAL observations and their scientific results have been building an impressive legacy: The discovery of currently more than 600 new high-energy sources; the first-ever direct detection of (56)Ni and (56)Co radio-active decay lines from a Type Ia supernova; spectroscopy of isotopes from galactic nucleo-synthesis sources; new insights on enigmatic positron annihilation in the Galactic bulge and disk; and pioneering gamma-ray polarization studies. INTEGRAL is also a successful actor in the new multi-messenger astronomy introduced by non-electromagnetic signals from gravitational waves and from neutrinos: INTEGRAL found the first prompt electromagnetic radiation in coincidence with a binary neutron star merger. Up to now more than 1750 scientific papers based on INTEGRAL data have been published in refereed journals. In this paper, we will give a comprehensive update of the satellite status after more than 18 years of operations in a harsh space environment, and an account of the successful Ground Segment.

Erik Kuulkers↗

The INTEGRAL View on Black Hole X-ray Binaries

INTEGRAL is an ESA mission in fundamental astrophysics that was launched in October 2002. It has been in orbit for over 18 years, during which it has been observing the high-energy sky with a set of instruments specifically designed to probe the emission from hard X-ray and soft -ray sources. This paper is devoted to the subject of black hole binaries, which are among the most important sources that populate the high-energy sky. We present a review of the scientific literature based on INTEGRAL data, which has significantly advanced our knowledge in the field of relativistic astrophysics. We briefly summarise the state-of-the-art of the study of black hole binaries, with a particular focus on the topics closer to the INTEGRAL science. We then give an overview of the results obtained by INTEGRAL and by other observatories on a number of sources of importance in the field. Finally, we review the main results obtained over the past 18 years on all the black hole binaries that INTEGRAL has observed. We conclude with a summary of the main contributions of INTEGRAL to the field, and on the future perspectives.

S E Motta↗

Joint Acceptance Attenuation Factor of Integrated Pressure with Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint Measurements

The Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) is widely used to measure the surface pressure of the scaled model in the wind tunnel tests. Compared to the conventional pressure transducers, uPSP has the advantage of high spatial resolution. With multiple high-speed cameras, the uPSP data collected with the camera pixels are mapped to the surface grid of the scaled model and converted to pressure. The shot noise, which is associated with the quantum processes both in the generation of the photons by the luminescent uPSP and in the conversion of the photons into electrons within the camera, is the dominant component of the noise in the uPSP measurement. The integrated pressure is usually computed as an area-weighted average of the uPSP measured pressures on the grid nodes of a user-defined patch. The effect of the shot noise is reduced in the integrated pressure; however, the measurement of the aerodynamic pressure is also attenuated. This paper discusses the Joint Acceptance Attenuation Factor (JAAF) of the integrated pressure with uPSP measurements. The JAAF is defined as the ratio of the auto or cross Power Spectral Density (PSD) of the integrated aerodynamic pressure on the patch to the average auto PSD of the aerodynamic pressure on the grid nodes of the patch. Under the assumption that the cross spectrum of the aerodynamic pressure can be described with the Corcos model, the closed-form formula of the JAAF is derived for the integrated pressure on rectangular patches via the summation of uPSP measurements on discrete grid nodes. The closed-form formula is verified via the integration of the pressure field of Corcos model over continuous areas. The properties of the JAAF with different parameters are presented and the applications in the comparison of the spectrum of the pressure transducers and uPSP measurements, which were collected in the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) tests with the 11-by-11-foot transonic wind tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center in December 2017 and September 2019 respectively, are also discussed. The work described in this paper is a part of NASA’s development of a new state-of-the-art uPSP capability in production wind tunnels. Funding was provided by the NASA Aerosciences Evaluation and Test Capabilities(AETC) Portfolio Office.

Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint↗

Cracking the Code: An Integrated Approach to Meeting Client Needs at NASA’s Langley Research Center

Organizational development (OD) is an interdisciplinary field that encourages the integration of many different concepts and theories in meeting client requirements. However, OD practitioners often maintain a significant amount of knowledge and lack specific guidance on how to combine concepts into a unified approach to drive change, thus making the selection and integration of disparate approaches challenging. To assist OD practitioners in navigating these challenges, a theory synthesizing approach is used to demonstrate the incremental insights that can be gained through the innovative integration of concepts, rather than being restricted to one perspective. More specifically, a novel Integrated Approach Decision-Making Tool is presented that offers specific steps to take to reach an effective, innovative solution. To further illustrate how this tool can be used in practice, an example is provided that details how this tool was used to achieve project success at NASA’s Langley Research Center through integrating three common OD models. Taken together, this paper will inform change agents operating in a similar capacity at any organization by providing a roadmap for how to meet client requirements and achieve increased project success through creating integrated, novel OD interventions.

Interdisciplinary↗

Investigating the Relationship between the Cell Wall Integrity Pathway and Unfolded Protein Response

Plants have made significant contributions to astronaut health in spaceflight missions. To further spaceflight research in optimizing plant viability, this study aims to understand the factors involved in maintaining cell wall integrity, which is vital to plant morphology and structural stability. Spaceflight can negatively impact the cell wall; thus, it is crucial to investigate how to mitigate spaceflight stressors to maintain the integrity of the cell wall. The structural integrity of plants’ cell walls depends on secondary cell wall biogenesis, which enables the repair and architectural support of plants like A. thaliana. This biogenesis is triggered by a signal transduction cascade: first initiated by cell wall stress, the CWI (cell wall integrity) pathway is activated, followed by the UPR (unfolded protein response), then the cell wall’s integrity is maintained through secondary cell wall biogenesis. Through a re-analysis of GeneLab Dataset 321 (GLDS-321), a study from NASA’s Open Science Data Repository that investigates the effects of spaceflight on the UPR, several genes were found to be associated with the cell wall. This proposal postulates a relationship between the UPR and the CWI pathway and their direct effect on secondary cell wall biogenesis by investigating IRX7, a gene associated with secondary cell wall biogenesis. The predicted outcome of overexpressing IRX7 is increased resilience of the cell wall by upregulating both the UPR and the CWI pathway, while silencing IRX7 is predicted to compromise the cell wall integrity by downregulating the UPR and the CWI pathway. This study will give insight into the needed measures to increase cell wall resilience in stressful environments: As spaceflight durations increase and uncertain climate change events progress on Earth, understanding how to optimize cell wall resilience – a fundamental pillar of plant health – can effectively enhance mass crop production and quality and ensure the physical and psychological health of astronauts in long-term space missions.

GL4HS↗

Enterprise Mission Integration for Artemis Lunar Missions

Mission integration is an iterative process by which a specific mission is formulated, refined, planned, and executed within the established vehicle(s), architecture, and ground systems design. Mission integration includes the people, vehicle(s) and ground hardware/software, products, processes, analyses, schedules, facilities, Certification of Flight Readiness, etc. The Artemis Mission Integration Task Team (MITT) developed a series of products and processes to support the complex mission integration across various Programs within the Artemis Mission Campaign (Orion, Space Launch Systems, Exploration Ground Systems, Gateway, Human Landing System, and Extravehicular Activity and Human Surface Mobility). The Moon to Mars (M2M) Program is referred to as ‘the enterprise’ as it includes both the M2M organization and the Programs supporting the Artemis Mission Campaign. Artemis Mission Integration has five phases: mission capability, mission definition, mission preparation, mission execution, and post-mission assessment. This paper focuses on one of the enterprise-level mission checkpoints as a kick-off to the Mission Preparation phase, the Mission Integration Review (MIR), which occurs 18-24 months prior to launch. The MIR helps to confirm the defined mission technical baseline is within the existing analyzed design envelope. Details are provided on the identification of dependencies, issues, or gaps for mission-specific objectives and requirements, as well as the definition of the analysis, training, mission execution products, facilities, and detailed supporting operations requirements. The MIR was held for both Artemis I and II and this paper aims to share with the aerospace community its value as we prepare for upcoming Artemis Missions.

Mary Anne Plaza↗

FINAL TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF A HEAT INTEGRATED POST-COMBUSTION CO2 CAPTURE SYSTEM WITH HITACHI ADVANCED SOLVENT INTO EXISTING COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT

This report contains the results of a techno-economic assessment (TEA) conducted of a heat integrated post-combustion CO2 capture process with Hitachi advanced solvent for retrofit into an existing coal-fired power plant (but treated as greenfield plant on cost analysis). The process has been developed by the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy (UK CAER). EPRI was chiefly responsible for this analysis, with significant input from WorleyParsons, Hitachi Power Systems America (Hitachi) and UK CAER. The project also involves the design, fabrication, installation, testing, and analyses of a slipstream facility located at L&GE-KU’s E.W. Brown Generating Station to demonstrate the UK CAER carbon capture system that could utilize heat integration with the main power plant. The design, start-up, and baseline of the pilot system was performed with a generic 30 wt% MEA solvent to obtain data for direct comparison with the DOE/NETL Reference Case followed by testing Hitachi’s proprietary solvent H3-1. In this techno-economic analysis, two cases utilizing the UK CAER process are compared, using different approach temperatures and solvent, against the DOE/NETL Reference Case (Case 10). The results are shown comparing the energy demand for post-combustion CO2 capture and the net higher heating value (HHV) efficiency of the power plant integrated with the post-combustion capture (PCC) plant. A levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) assessment was performed showing the costs of the options presented in the study. The key factors contributing to the reduction of LCOE were identified as CO2 partial pressure increase at the flue gas inlet, thermal integration of the process, and performance of the Hitachi H3-1 solvent. Recent UK CAER process pilot-scale testing data and process simualtion data showed that the packing heights of absorber and stripper columns were significantly oversized in the prelimanary TEA (Task 2 of this project) and thus updated in this final TEA for the H3-1 case only. In addition, the solvent make-up cost for H3-1 was updated based on lattest test results. Finally, a heat integration with the main power plant was applied in this final TEA to increase overall energy effciency for both the MEA and H3-1 cases. Additonal reductions in capital and operational costs are expected but not taken into account here. Shorter columns result in reduced pressure drops, smaller blower head and pump hydraulic head requirements. An increase in overall energy efficiency resuls in a decreased size of the power plant, the CCS and a reduced parasitic steam requirement to the CCS. The net efficiency of the UK CAER integrated PC power plant with CO2 capture changes from 26.2% for the Reference Case 10 plant in 2010 revised DOE/NETL baseline report to 27.6% for the MEA options considered, and 29.1% for the options utilizing the Hitachi advanced solvent. The UK CAER Process + Hitachi case also produces an extra 30.9 MW of generation compared to the UK CAER Process + MEA case and total 60.9 MW more than DOE Case 10. LCOE ($/MWh) values are $172.08/MWh for the MEA option and $157.65/MWh for the Hitachi H3-1 solvent cases considered in comparison to $189.59/MWh in January 2012 dollar for the Reference Case 10. The UK CAER CCS process with MEA case lowers energy consumption for CO2 capture to 1340 Btu/lb-CO2 captured as compared to 1540 Btu/lb-CO2 in the Reference Case 10. The UK CAER CCS process with H3-1 case further lowers energy consumption for CO2 capture to 973 Btu/lb-CO2 captured, for an advantage of 36.8% less energy consumption than Case 10. The study also shows 38.1% less heat rejection associated with the carbon capture system from 3398 MBtu/hr (Case 10) to 2104 MBtu/hr for the UK CAER + MEA system. Heat rejection is reduced to 2464 MBtu/hr in the UK CAER + H3-1 case, for a 27.5 % decrease compared to Case 10. Modeling outputs show that in the UK CAER process, the cooling water that is 2-5°C cooler than conventional cooling tower water can be achieved for ambient conditions common to the midwest and other regions. The results from the techno-economic assessment show that the proposed technology can be investigated further as a viable alternative to conventional CO2 capture technology. The evaluation also shows the effect of the critical parameters on the LCOE, with the main variables being the approach temperature and CO2 partial pressure increase at the flue gas inlet. A summary of the key advantages of the UK CAER Process + H3-1 case for LCOE and other economic factors compared to the DOE Case 10 is as follows: • A lower variable operating cost by $1.56/MWh ($1.08MWh less than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 11.7% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower COE by $25.32MWh ($13.94/MWh lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 16.9% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower LCOE by $31.94/MWh ($17.51/MWh lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 16.9% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower cost of CO2 captured by $18.65/tonne CO2 ($9.44/tonne CO2 lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 30.4% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower cost of CO2 avoided by $34.95/tonne CO2 ($18.53 tonne CO2 lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 38.7% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10

Bhown, Abhoyjit S.↗

Long term performance of vacuum insulation panels integrated into building components

Vacuum insulation panels provide much greater resistance to heat transfer than conventional insulation materials, making them ideal for building applications, especially where space is a constraint. Of particular interest is energy retrofits where high insulation values are required with very little or no modifications to existing building envelope elements such as fenestrations and service penetrations. To facilitate the use of vacuum insulation panels (VIPs) in residential and commercial construction, this study investigates the performance of VIPs integrated into polyisocyanurate foam board and vinyl siding after several years of service. Vacuum insulation panels integrated with polyisocyanurate boards were studied in mixed humid and cold climates. The integration of VIPs with vinyl siding was investigated in a mixed humid climate. Periods of service were between two and five years. In all cases, the integrated building components outperformed conventional materials by almost 40 percent during heating and cooling periods. However, the percent reduction in heat gains and losses of the integrated building components decreased with time at a rate between approximately 4% and 10% per year during the service period. In some cases, the rate seems to converge to a steady -state value. Measurements are ongoing to determine if a steady-state value is attained or the panel's insulation value continues to decrease with time. This study is critical in addressing the service life and durability of the building envelope with VIP integrated building components. The effect of these changes will be reviewed in the context of an exterior retrofit.

Aldykiewicz Jr, Antonio↗

How Can Construction Process Simulation Modeling Aid the Integration of Lean Principles in the Factory-Built Housing Industry?

New and existing factories that produce and deliver factory-built housing can benefit from construction process simulation modeling to explore the integration of Lean principles in their operations. Construction process simulation modeling provides digital or virtual recreations of the real-world factory environments to visualize, quantify, analyze, and optimize their underlying behavior, including factory productivity, material flow, labor dynamics, bottlenecks, and work scope. One of the key benefits of process simulation modeling is the ability to create and compare "what-if" scenarios, including integrating Lean principles such as reducing waste (for example, transportation, waiting), line balancing, and just-in-time concepts. In general, three process simulation methods are widely used: discrete event simulation (DES), agentbased modeling (ABM), and system dynamics (SD). Myriad process simulation software also is available, but depending on the industry, complexity of the system, and purposes of the simulation, some software might be more appropriate. Similar to how computer-aided design (CAD) software such as AutoCAD and Rhinoceros enable building design of modular or factory-built housing, process simulation modeling software such as jStrobe, ProModel, and AnyLogic can enable factory design of new and existing factories to deliver modular affordable housing at scale, as opposed to traditional site-built construction. Software with DES capabilities can help generate a process model that is a logical representation of resources and activities in a factory. Software with CAD-DES integration can leverage product-process data integration to help spatially visualize a DES model of the factory in the CAD environment. Software with multimethod simulation capabilities, widely used in the manufacturing industry, brings together DES, ABM, and SD in a single platform that allows visualization, quantification, analyses, and optimization at varying data fidelities. Near-real-time data from an existing factory can be directly plugged into multimethod simulation software so that the construction process simulation model is a near-accurate representation of the real-world factory conditions. This report provides insights into the use of simulation as an aid to integrate Lean concepts in factories, including guidelines for selecting the appropriate process simulation modeling method and software. These insights have been developed as part of ongoing process simulation modeling research, development, and demonstration projects at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory focused on how process simulation models can enable better integration of resilience, energy efficiency, and low-carbon design strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Update on the Status of a Reduced Flow Test of a 10MW 700°C sCO2 Integrally Geared Compander

. In order to maintain viability as a future power-generating technology, concentrating solar power (CSP) must reduce its levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). One component of solving this problem is reducing the cost of the power block while simultaneously increasing the efficiency of the thermodynamic cycle. One disruptive technology that has the promise to accomplish this is supercritical CO2 based power cycles. These cycles are conceptually similar to steam cycles; however, they have substantially smaller turbomachinery at equivalent power while also delivering more efficiency at turbine inlet temperatures of 500-700 degrees Celsius. This paper will summarize the current status of a US Department of Energy project to develop machinery to support a 10 MW sCO2 power cycle. The team of Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) and Hanwha Power Systems America, proposed to develop an integrally-geared (IG) compressor-expander (compander) for use in a nominal 10 MW-scale concentrated solar power (CSP) supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) plant application. This integrally-geared compander (IGC) comprises multiple pinion shafts interconnected on a single bull gear to create a compact package, and utilizes a low-cost, low-speed driver. In addition, the integrally geared architecture allows each pinion to operate at different rotational speeds to optimize performance and easily allow for inter-stage cooling and turbine re-heat to further enhance both stage and cycle efficiency. The close integration of all turbomachinery elements into a single integrally-geared (IG) machine creates a design that lends itself to power block modularization, which makes it suitable for waste heat recovery, fossil fuel power plants, and especially CSP applications. As part of the commercialization of this technology, it is necessary to reduce risk by validation testing of key components. In the current work, the focus is developing a test loop to enable safe testing of the main compressor stage across a wide range of operating conditions, and to validate the mechanical integrity of the turbine at full pressure, temperature, and speed. Developing a test loop for sCO2 requires balancing a number of design alternatives that impact cost, lead time, safety, and performance. The current work discusses the design process for the reduced flow test loop for the compander, and supporting documentation supporting the viability of the test loop

wilkes, jason↗

Applying the index of watershed integrity to the Matanuska–Susitna basin

The Matanuska-Susitna Borough is the fastest growing region in the State of Alaska and is impacted by a number of human activities. We conducted a multiscale assessment of the stressors facing the borough by developing and mapping the Index of Watershed Integrity (IWI) and Index of Catchment Integrity (the latter considers stressors in areas surrounding individual stream segments exclusive of upstream areas). The assessment coincided with the borough’s stormwater management planning. We adapted the list of anthropogenic stressors used in the original conterminous United States IWI application to reflect the borough’s geography, human activity, and data availability. This analysis also represents an early application of the NHDPlus High Resolution geospatial framework and the first use of the framework in an IWI study. We also explored how remediation of one important stressor, culverts, could impact watershed integrity at the catchment and watershed scales. Overall, we found that the integrity scores for the Matanuska– Susitna basin were high compared to the conterminous United States. Low integrity scores did occur in the rapidly developing Wasilla–Palmer core area. We also found that culvert remediation had a larger proportional impact in catchments with fewer stressors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A U.S. Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy, and a companion report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A Canadian Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada, and a companion report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Scoping Study of Integrated Geothermal CO 2 Heat Pump and Water Well System in Cold Climate Region

This study evaluates the feasibility of using ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) integrated with water wells for residential heating demands in cold regions of the United States. Four different heat pump systems were evaluated and compared: a CO 2 air-source heat pump (ASHP), a R-410A ASHP, a CO 2 GSHP integrated with well water, and a R-410A GSHP integrated with well water. Simulations were conducted at both equipment and building integration levels, followed by a nationwide analysis across 10 selected cities. Results indicate that integrating GSHP technology with existing water wells (e.g., artesian, bedrock, drilled, and collector wells) is a feasible heating solution because of their high flow rates, good water quality, stable temperatures, and low environmental impact. Although R-410A systems demonstrate higher efficiency, CO 2 systems are more suitable for heating from contamination-free and energy security perspective. The CO 2 GSHPs maintain better performance in colder climates compared with that of ASHPs, providing higher coefficient of performance and environmental benefits because CO 2 refrigerant leakage would not contaminate well water. A national analysis confirms that CO 2 GSHPs outperform furnaces, especially in cold climates, making them a promising solution for residential heating.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species–season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗