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NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

terrain↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From IMM to IMPACT: Enhanced Functionality for Exploration Missions

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is an evidence-based decision support tool used to assess medical risk and optimize medical systems for manned spaceflight missions. The IMM is baselined to the International Space Station (ISS) in terms of the spaceflight environment of low earth orbit and the ISS medical resource capability. IMPACT is the next generation evidence-based decision support tool currently under development by the Human Research Program to assess medical risk and optimize medical systems for future exploration missions to the moon and Mars. IMPACT is being designed to provide a comprehensive integrated suite of decision support tools for mission planners. This presentation will focus on the lessons learned from IMM and the enhanced functionalities of IMPACT.

E L Kerstman↗

NASA NTRS2023

Spacesuit Fit and Mobility Assessments by Digital Human Modeling

Spacesuit Fit and Mobility Assessments by Digital Human Modeling K. Han Kim (Leidos, Inc.) Elizabeth A. Benson (KBR, Inc.) Sudhakar L. Rajulu (NASA Johnson Space Center) Spacesuits are required to accommodate safe operations for astronauts across gender and a wide variety of body shapes and sizes. This goal has been of particular importance given the increasing diversity of NASA crewmembers for upcoming Missions. While testing with design prototypes is a critical step for spacesuit development, iterative mockup design, fabrication, and human subject tests can be extremely costly and time consuming. Moreover, testing with a limited subject pool has often raised questions for validity, as test subjects need to represent the entire astronaut population, not only of the past or current, but also the future. This study is aimed at demonstrating how digital human modeling (DHM) tools have been built and directly supported NASA spacesuit developments. With DHM, the computer aided design (CAD) model of a spacesuit was integrated with human body models. Two use scenarios are presented in this paper, namely fit and mobility. For fit assessments, the suit-to-body contact and compression patterns were estimated using 3D human body scan models virtually wearing a spacesuit model. A statistical fit classifier was made from the contact patterns and applied against a large database of body scans (N=2,500). With this technique, the NASA reference design spacesuit Exploration EVA Mobility Unit (xEMU)was verified to accommodate 90% of the astronaut-like population, with the critical dimensions covering 1stto 99thpercentiles of the target body measurements. A similar technique assessed XEMU mobility. The maximum reach envelopes were considered, within which the work objects and critical hardware interfaces should be located for safe and ergonomic operations. While the reach envelope geometry varies significantly with the suit wearer’s body size and strength, the existing test data did not include the subjects critically required to define suit mobility requirements, such as very small females or large males. Using the xEMU virtual model kinematically simulated and permuted for a hypothetical wearer, however, the existing data were statistically transformed and scaled. This method enabled for a parametric estimation of the reach envelopes from the 1stpercentile female or 99thpercentile male. The outcome was successfully incorporated for requirement developments. With the new DHM tools, human integration of the spacesuit was structurally simulated and predictively assessed, which would have been otherwise impossible. Also, the needs for iterative mockup and subject tests were significantly reduced, which resulted in time and cost saving. Additional work is in progress to integrate additional vehicles, tools, and hardware with DHM framework.

K Han Kim↗

NASA NTRS1994

Assessment of the SFC database for analysis and modeling

SFC is one of the four clusters that make up the Integrated Work Control System (IWCS), which will integrate the shuttle processing databases at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The IWCS framework will enable communication among the four clusters and add new data collection protocols. The Shop Floor Control (SFC) module has been operational for two and a half years; however, at this stage, automatic links to the other 3 modules have not been implemented yet, except for a partial link to IOS (CASPR). SFC revolves around a DB/2 database with PFORMS acting as the database management system (DBMS). PFORMS is an off-the-shelf DB/2 application that provides a set of data entry screens and query forms. The main dynamic entity in the SFC and IOS database is a task; thus, the physical storage location and update privileges are driven by the status of the WAD. As we explored the SFC values, we realized that there was much to do before actually engaging in continuous analysis of the SFC data. Half way into this effort, it was realized that full scale analysis would have to be a future third phase of this effort. So, we concentrated on getting to know the contents of the database, and in establishing an initial set of tools to start the continuous analysis process. Specifically, we set out to: (1) provide specific procedures for statistical models, so as to enhance the TP-OAO office analysis and modeling capabilities; (2) design a data exchange interface; (3) prototype the interface to provide inputs to SCRAM; and (4) design a modeling database. These objectives were set with the expectation that, if met, they would provide former TP-OAO engineers with tools that would help them demonstrate the importance of process-based analyses. The latter, in return, will help them obtain the cooperation of various organizations in charting out their individual processes.

Centeno, Martha A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

Laurance, William F.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tethys Water Demand Data

U.S. water demand varies sharply by sector and region as land use, population, weather patterns, and economic activity co-evolve. High-resolution water demand data is required to capture these dynamics, support integrated energy-water-land modeling, and local-to-regional water scarcity assessments. This dataset contains gridded (1/8 degree), monthly, multi-sector water demand dataset for the contiguous United States (CONUS) covering 1980-2100 across eight future scenarios of human-Earth system change. The dataset covers irrigation, thermoelectric, municipal (public-supply and domestic), livestock, manufacturing, and mining demands, separately for withdrawals and consumption, and includes per-cell renewable vs. non-renewable water source attributions. The dataset is validated against the latest USGS 2010-2020 water-use data for the three largest water demand sectors (Domestic, Electricity, and Irrigation), with correlations ranging from 0.73-0.95 at the HUC6 scale. The two datasets largely agree on an aggregate basis with per-sector bias falling within +/-7%, but they disagree on the spatial allocation of water with individual HUC6 basins having normalized RMSE from 68-171% and median absolute percent difference from 37-86%. This dataset advances prior global products by combining state-resolved sectoral demands from GCAM-USA, future power-plant siting from the CERF model, and scenario-consistent high-resolution climate and population forcing data across the eight scenarios.

GCAM-USA↗

NASA NTRS2007

Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Foreign body impact event damage formation in composite structures

This report discusses a methodology that can be used to assess the effect of foreign body impacts on composite structural integrity. The described effort focuses on modeling the effect of a central impact on a 5 3/4 inch filament wound test article. The discussion will commence with details of the material modeling that was used to establish the input properties for the analytical model. This discussion is followed by an overview of the impact assessment methodology. The progress on this effort to date is reviewed along with a discussion of tasks that have yet to be completed.

Bucinell, Ronald B.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Selecting Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessments

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team has developed a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. An important goal of the GMI is to test modules for numerical transport, photochemical integration, and model dynamics within a common framework. This work is focussed on the dependence of the overall assessment on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere were available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS-2'). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to evaluate which of these three data sets provided the best representation of trace gases in the stratosphere today. Tracer experiments were devised to test various aspects of model transport. Stratospheric measurements of long-lived trace gases were selected as a test of the CTM transport. This presentation describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields and the resulting choice of wind fields to be used in the GMI assessment. This type of objective model evaluation will lead to a higher level of confidence in these assessments. We suggest that the diagnostic tests shown here be used to augment traditional general circulation model evaluation methods.

Strahan, Susan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unified 0.25-degree gridded infrastructure-critical extreme weather for the United States from 1979 to 2100

Extreme weather events can severely disrupt critical infrastructure, triggering cascading effects on power, transportation, and essential services. However, standard weather and climate datasets often lack specialized variables necessary for hazard assessments. We present a unified dataset of infrastructure-critical weather and climate variables across the United States at 0.25° resolution, covering daily or sub-daily intervals from 1979 to 2100. The dataset includes temperature, dew point, wind gusts, precipitation partitioned by rain, snow, and freezing rain or ice pellets, lightning, and wildfire metrics. Historical conditions (1979-2023) are synthesized from observations and reanalysis products, while future projections are derived from 14 CMIP6 global climate models (historical, SSP245, and SSP585 experiments). Physically based and data-driven methods are used to estimate variables not directly provided by existing models. By integrating these variables into a single unified dataset, we enable consistent, high-resolution assessments of weather-related infrastructure risks across past and future periods, supporting wide-ranging applications in energy, transportation, water resources, emergency management, and beyond.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of Simulations of Double-detonation Type Ia Supernovae to Integration Methodology

Abstract We study the coupling of hydrodynamics and reactions in simulations of the double-detonation model for Type Ia supernovae. When assessing the convergence of simulations, the focus is usually on spatial resolution; however, the method of coupling the physics together as well as the tolerances used in integrating a reaction network also play an important role. In this paper, we explore how the choices made in both coupling and integrating the reaction portion of a simulation (operator/Strang splitting versus the simplified spectral deferred corrections method we introduced previously) influences the accuracy, efficiency, and nucleosynthesis of simulations of double detonations. We find no need to limit reaction rates or reduce the simulation time step to the reaction timescale. The entire simulation methodology used here is GPU-accelerated and made freely available as part of the Castro simulation code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parallel Hybrid Turboprop Performance Modeling and Optimization

NASA’s Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project conducts ground and flight tests of integrated Megawatt (MW) class hybrid-electric powertrain systems on regional turboprop aircraft demonstrators. To meet the increased demand for assessment of potential capabilities and benefits from these novel vehicle configurations, NASA is developing tooling and models to estimate the performance of hybridized regional turboprops. This paper covers the development of a parametrically driven performance model for a De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400 (Q400) regional turboprop integrated with a novel parallel hybrid architecture using the Gascon framework. Gascon is a modern reimplementation of the General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) built using the Condor mathematical modeling framework in Python. Within Gascon, a parametric representation of the parallel hybrid architecture was synthesized, which features the electric motor coupled to the power turbine. This capability allows for in-the-loop optimization of the parametric parallel hybrid architecture to characterize the mission capabilities and fuel savings of the design and determine optimal power scheduling strategies for efficient electric power management for a given mission. The study shows that a fuel savings of up to 20% can be achieved, but that increased fuel savings comes at the expense of payload capacity.

Gascon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parallel Hybrid Turboprop Performance Modeling and Optimization

Gascon↗

NASA NTRS2021

Investigating the potential of a global precipitation forecast to inform landslide prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infrastructure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗

NASA NTRS2021

Investigating the Potential of A Global Precipitation Forecast to Inform Landslide Prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infra-structure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗

DOE OSTI2020

The First Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet from TESS. III. Climate States and Characterization Prospects for TOI-700 d

We present self-consistent three-dimensional climate simulations of possible habitable states for the newly discovered habitable-zone Earth-sized planet TOI-700 d. We explore a variety of atmospheric compositions, pressures, and rotation states for both ocean-covered and completely desiccated planets in order to assess the planet’s potential for habitability. For all 20 of our simulated cases, we use our climate model outputs to synthesize transmission spectra, combined-light spectra, and integrated broadband phase curves. These climatologically informed observables will help the community assess the technological capabilities necessary for future characterization of this planet—as well as similar transiting planets discovered in the future—and will provide a guide for distinguishing possible climate states if one day we do obtain sensitive spectral observations of a habitable planet around an M star. We find that TOI-700 d is a strong candidate for a habitable world and can potentially maintain temperate surface conditions under a wide variety of atmospheric compositions. Unfortunately, the spectral feature depths from the resulting transmission spectra and the peak flux and variations from our synthesized phase curves for TOI-700 d do not exceed 10 ppm. This will likely prohibit the James Webb Space Telescope from characterizing its atmosphere; however, this motivates the community to invest in future instrumentation that perhaps can one day reveal the true nature of TOI-700 d and to continue to search for similar planets around less distant stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Determining the 9 $\mathrm{Be}$($n, γ$) 10 $\mathrm{Be}$ integral cross section at fission neutron energies

The 9 B neutron capture cross section has significant implications for Be materials in the nuclear industry as well as the α process in stellar nucleosynthesis. While the cross section is well constrained at thermal neutron energies, there is a lack of experimental data at higher neutron energies, and the evaluated nuclear data libraries can differ by up to two orders of magnitude. We calculate the 9 Be(n, γ) 10 Be integral cross section at fission neutron energies in an effort to resolve disagreements amongst the nuclear data libraries. Foil irradiation experiments were performed using the Flattop critical assembly at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center with either the highly enriched U or Pu cores, with target foil stacks placed at multiple locations to exploit different neutron energy profiles. Accelerator mass spectrometry was used to measure the 10 Be/ 9 Be ratio in irradiated Be foils, while all other activation products were quantified through gamma spectrometry. The experiments were simulated using the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport code and combined with experimental results to determine the total neutron fluence, while the staysl-pnnl suite and fispact-ii code were used to validate the model and assess the systematic uncertainty. The new 9 Be(n, γ) 10 Be integral cross sections calculated in this work are 26.5 ± 2.2µb at 0.59 ± 0.07 MeV, 24 ± 3 µb at 0.98 ± 0.14 MeV, 21.7 ± 1.3 µb at 1.26 ± 0.11 MeV, 21.8 ± 1.4 µb at 1.32 ± 0.11 MeV, and 18.6 ± 1.1 µb at 1.46 ± 0.13 MeV. These results do not agree with integral cross sections from any of the nuclear data library evaluations. Discrepancies between the new integral cross sections reported here and the nuclear data libraries suggest a more complex cross-section structure in the MeV range which allows for more resonance contributions, and more work is needed to further constrain the evaluated cross sections.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improvements to the Simplified Loads Methodology in IEC 61400-2: November 22, 2021 - November 21, 2022

The "Simplified Loads Model" (SLM) of IEC 61400-2 provides a simple methodology to assess the structural integrity of a small wind turbine (SWT). The SLM is unique to the small wind turbine standard. It was included to allow SWT manufacturers with limited resources to undertake integrity checks at a reasonable cost in time and resources and avoid the expense of detailed aeroelastic simulations. Unfortunately, the SLM has gained the reputation of being overly conservative and this has reduced its value to the SWT community and its use in SWT design and certification. Conservatism in design standards is needed but excessive conservatism is not. The aim of this report is to address the principal areas of excess conservatism and recommend changes to the SLM that preserve its simplicity but reduce the excess. The changes for the ultimate loads are consistent with their treatment in aeroelastic modelling for certification and with related codes for wind loading on structures. The recommendations for a new fatigue design load case are also based on aeroelastic simulations, in this case of five SWTs of varying configurations with rated power from 2.4 to 50 kW. It is also pointed out the design load case for yawed operation omits an important term. The recommended inclusion of this term would make the SLM slightly more conservative for this case.

17 WIND ENERGY↗