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At least 487 records · Page 27

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Coplnger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.

05 NUCLEAR FUELS↗

The three-dimensional structure of the infrared cirrus

This project was carried out over a period of four years, beginning 6/15/89 and continuing through 9/15/93. Intermediate results have been reported as poster papers at several meetings of the American Astronomical Society. A brief summary was presented in April 1993 at a symposium on the infrared cirrus. The final results were published in late 1993. The measurements have been deposited in NASA's Astronomical Data Center. Briefly, the results are as follows: Using the IRAS data base, we surveyed the 1808 06-B9.5 stars in the Bright Star Catalog for extended excess emission at 60 micrometers, indicating the presence of heated dust (cirrus hotspots) at the location of the star. Measurements of the angular size and infrared flux at 12, 25, 60 and 100 micrometers were obtained for 302 objects. From these basic data we calculated the radius, absorption, optical depth, color temperature, and dust density for each object. Arguing that the stars are randomly distributed point probes of the ISM, we showed that the filling factor of the dust-bearing component of the ISM is 14.6 + 2.4 percent within 400 pc of the sun for clouds with an equivalent hydrogen density greater than 0.5 cm(exp -3). Above a density of 1.0 cm(exp -3) the density distribution function appears to follow a power law of index -1.25. Further, we showed that the dust is distributed more sparsely in a region near the sun about 60 pc wide and extending several hundred parsecs in the direction of longitudes 80-260 deg. The distances to the dust clouds were determined from the spectroscopic parallaxes of the embedded stars; when the HIPPARCOS parallaxes become available, we will be able to produce a more accurate three-dimensional view of the local ISM.

Gaustad, John E.↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Applications of Hyporheic Zone Sampling for Assessing VOC Plume Engineered Remediation and Natural Attenuation Effectiveness - 20414

Determining the efficacy of engineered remedial actions and/or natural attenuation as an acceptable EPA Record of Decision (ROD) must address long-term temporal and spatial variability. Since final plume downslope destinations are aquifers and related surface streams and rivers, hyporheic zone sampling is essential. Comprehensive hyporheic sampling documents plume groundwater remediation prior to upwelling into stream benthic strata and natural attenuation within this dynamic zone itself. Our intensive sampling of the Savannah River Site (SRS) Chemical, Metals, and Pesticides (CMP) Pits VOC plume-fringe from 2005 to 2018 documented PCE natural attenuation and effectiveness of In Situ Thermal Treatment (ISTT). Most plume hyporheic upwelling was delimited to a 20 m inflow reach along Pen Branch. Our study utilized corroborative sampling methodologies: ambient hole-water grab samples: passive diffusion bags (PDB); and hole-core sediment samples to confirm station to station spatial and temporal trends. VOC hot spot detections were confirmed from both groundwater and soil core samples. VOC pathways through the Pen Branch hyporheic zone were assessed at hole-installation using sequential soil samples from augered cores and grab-samples of hole-bottom water. Longer term, composite water samples were collected from PDBs deployed for a minimum two-week equilibration period. Soil samples were collected from the 15 and 65 cm core levels in December 2017 and June 2018 at six stations. Additional core depths of 40 and 85 cm were sampled in June 2018 at the highest VOC station (5DB80). All samples were analyzed in an EPA certified lab by purge and trap GC-MS. Effectiveness of previous ISTT and soil vapor extraction (SVE) for this CMP Pits PCE plume, was clearly documented by significant downward trends in VOC at hyporheic zone stations prior to December 2015. Achieving final stage conversions of PCE daughter products to ethene and CO{sub 2} may be limited depending upon suitable interactions between hyporheic zone sediment morphology, hydrology, and redox conditions. Because declines in VOC daughter products at our hyporheic stations may also be caused by physical actions of dilution and dispersion rather than true biochemical dechlorination, full quantification of natural attenuation requires the use of compound-specific isotope ratio analysis (CSIA) and microbial 16S rRNA with qPCR. To assist these next-phase efforts, a natural attenuation index (NAI) was used to help produce quicker, more cost-effective decision making for locating CSIA and microbial sampling efforts. The NAI used natural logarithm transformed GC-MS results for station VOC degradation compounds versus VOC parent compounds. Wide differences were observed between stations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Turbulent flow characteristics in an 84-pin rod bundle for typical and damaged spacer grids

Hexagonal rod bundles arranged in a tightly packed triangular lattice are extensively used for heat transfer and energy generation applications. Staggered spacer grids are used to maintain the structural integrity of gas-cooled fast reactor (GFR) fuel assemblies, while inducing localized turbulence in flow. Damage to these spacer grids results in a disruption of flow fields within these hexagonal fuel bundles. Experimental flow visualizations are critical to identify the differences in local flow properties that the structural damage may cause. This experimental research investigates the flow-field characteristics at a near-wall and center plane in a prototypical 84-pin GFR fuel assembly. Newly installed typical spacers and spacers subject to naturally occurring damage due to material degradation over prolonged experimentation were investigated. Velocity fields were acquired by utilizing the matched-index-of-refraction method to obtain time-resolved particle image velocimetry measurements for a Reynolds number of 12 000. Reynolds decomposition statistical results divulged differences in the time-averaged velocity, velocity fluctuations, flow anisotropy, and Reynolds stress distributions. Galilean decomposition demarcated the influence of spacer grid damage on the velocity fields. To extract turbulent structures and elucidate mechanisms of flow instabilities, proper orthogonal decomposition analysis was employed. Reduced order flow reconstructions enabled the application of vortex identification algorithms to determine the spatial and statistical characteristics of vortices generated. This research work provides unique experimental data on the spacer grid condition-dependent flow. The results offer a deeper understanding of fluid dynamics behavior to support GFR rod bundle design efforts and computational fluid dynamics model validation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigation of North American Vegetation Variability under Recent Climate: A Study Using the SSiB4/TRIFFID Biophysical/Dynamic Vegetation Model

Recent studies have shown that current dynamic vegetation models have serious weaknesses in reproducing the observed vegetation dynamics and contribute to bias in climate simulations. This study intends to identify the major factors that underlie the connections between vegetation dynamics and climate variability and investigates vegetation spatial distribution and temporal variability at seasonal to decadal scales over North America (NA) to assess a 2-D biophysical model/dynamic vegetation model's (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4, coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID)) ability to simulate these characteristics for the past 60 years (1948 through 2008). Satellite data are employed as constraints for the study and to compare the relationships between vegetation and climate from the observational and the simulation data sets. Trends in NA vegetation over this period are examined. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis, leaf drop threshold temperatures, and competition coefficients in the Lotka-Volterra equation, which describes the population dynamics of species competing for some common resource, have been identified as having major impacts on vegetation spatial distribution and obtaining proper initial vegetation conditions in SSiB4/TRIFFID. The finding that vegetation competition coefficients significantly affect vegetation distribution suggests the importance of including biotic effects in dynamical vegetation modeling. The improved SSiB4/TRIFFID can reproduce the main features of the NA distributions of dominant vegetation types, the vegetation fraction, and leaf area index (LAI), including its seasonal, interannual, and decadal variabilities. The simulated NA LAI also shows a general increasing trend after the 1970s in responding to warming. Both simulation and satellite observations reveal that LAI increased substantially in the southeastern U.S. starting from the 1980s. The effects of the severe drought during 1987-1992 and the last decade in the southwestern U.S. on vegetation are also evident from decreases in the simulated and satellite-derived LAIs. Both simulated and satellite-derived LAIs have the strongest correlations with air temperature at northern middle to high latitudes in spring reflecting the effect of these climatic variables on photosynthesis and phenological processes. Meanwhile, in southwestern dry lands, negative correlations appear due to the heat and moisture stress there during the summer. Furthermore, there are also positive correlations between soil wetness and LAI, which increases from spring to summer. The present study shows both the current improvements and remaining weaknesses in dynamical vegetation models. It also highlights large continental-scale variations that have occurred in NA vegetation over the past six decades and their potential relations to climate. With more observational data availability, more studies with differentmodels and focusing on different regions will be possible and are necessary to achieve comprehensive understanding of the vegetation dynamics and climate interactions.

climate variability↗

Correlated Electromagnetic Levitation Actuator: A Reaction Sphere Based Attitude Control System

To address problems experienced by current reaction wheels and control moment gyroscopebased attitude control systems (ACS), researchers at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center have begun developing a reaction sphere actuator based on correlated electromagnetic levitation that will be immune to destructive bearing friction, momentum saturation, and gimbal lock. The Correlated Electromagnetic Levitation Actuator (CELA) advances the state of the art of reaction sphere ACSs by employing the concept of correlated magnetics. It is a frictionless, direct-drive reaction sphere that harnesses a unique technology with an array of applications across multiple disciplines. Correlated electromagnets function in a manner that is analogous to a matched filter; the convolution of two signals is peaked at the index representing the greatest match. For CELA, the signals are the patterns of magnetic flux density as a function of position. The magnitude of the convolution equates to an attractive or repulsive force, and these forces can be azimuthal or radial. The development of CELA is based in four distinct disciplines: Advanced Manufacturing, Prototype Development, Electromagnetic Modeling, and Controls. We are developing novel manufacturing techniques required to build arrays of permanent and electromagnet dipoles on curved surfaces. To print the permanent magnetic array, we have developed a probe with pyramidal magnets that will reside on a robotic arm to induce localized magnetic fields on a surface. The probe also includes the ability to erase dipole patterns from a permanent magnet by heating the surface to its Curie temperature. A number of test articles and prototypes have been developed using additive manufacturing methods. These prototypes have included hemispherical motors to test the drive algorithm, and a levitation test bed that demonstrates a magnetic bearing method based on attractive magnetic forces and ratiometric Hall effect sensors. We developed an array of electromagnetic dipoles on a printed circuit board (PCB) with individual H-bridges controlling each coil. This device created various flux density patterns and we measured their magnetic fields using a custom Hall effect 3-D probe and a LabVIEW virtual instrument. These data will serve as a benchmark for characterizing the accuracy of future models. Current work is focused on modeling the magnetic fields of our prototype arrays using COMSOL Finite Element Analysis and verifying the model against our test data. Accurate modeling will allow us to quickly test new patterns of electromagnets and their macro behavior. Eventually, the magnetic field models will be implemented in our controls simulations to facilitate precise control of the reaction sphere. Initial model results agree with field measurements to within 1 G (5% of measured flux density). Currently, we are testing different material properties of the electromagnets and their magnetic fields and thermal effects. These results will be used to refine the design of the electromagnetic dipoles. Our control efforts have centered on developing commutation, levitation, and field pattern shaping hardware in the form of breadboards and PCBs with software running on a local microcontroller. In addition, our partners developed MATLAB Simulink models to demonstrate a PID controller thatmitigates disturbance forces resulting from the interaction of drive and levitation magnetics. Finally, we have designed a three-axis test stand that will be used in future work to demonstrate CELA’s orientation control capability.

controls↗

Correlated Electromagnetic Levitation Actuator: A Reaction Sphere-Based Attitude Control System

To address problems experienced by current reaction wheels and control moment gyroscopebased attitude control systems (ACS), researchers at National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have begun developing a reaction sphere actuator based on correlated electromagnetic levitation that will be immune to destructive bearing friction, momentum saturation, and gimbal lock. The Correlated Electromagnetic Levitation Actuator (CELA) advances the state of the art of reaction sphere ACSs by employing the concept of correlated magnetics. It is a frictionless, direct-drive reaction sphere that harnesses a unique technology with an array of applications across multiple disciplines. Correlated electromagnets function in a manner that is analogous to a matched filter; the convolution of two signals is peaked at the index representing the greatest match. For CELA, the signals are the patterns of magnetic flux density as a function of position. The magnitude of the convolution equates to an attractive or repulsive force, and these forces can be azimuthal or radial. The development of CELA is based in four distinct disciplines: Advanced Manufacturing, Prototype Development, Electromagnetic Modeling, and Controls. We are developing novel manufacturing techniques required to build arrays of permanent and electromagnet dipoles on curved surfaces. To print the permanent magnetic array, we have developed a probe with pyramidal magnets that will reside on a robotic arm to induce localized magnetic fields on a surface. We have also used high temperature ovens to erase dipole patterns from a permanent magnet by heating the surface to its Curie temperature. A number of test articles and prototypes have been developed using additive manufacturing methods. These prototypes have included hemispherical motors to test the drive algorithm, and a levitation test bed that demonstrates a magnetic bearing method based on attractive magnetic forces and ratiometric Hall effect sensors. We developed an array of electromagnetic dipoles on a printed circuit board (PCB) with individual H-bridges controlling each coil. This device created various flux density patterns and we measured their magnetic fields using a custom Hall effect 3-D probe and a LabVIEW virtual instrument. These data will serve as a benchmark for characterizing the accuracy of future models. Current work is focused on modeling the magnetic fields of our prototype arrays using COMSOL finite element analysis (FEA) and verifying the model against our test data. Accurate modeling will allow us to quickly test new patterns of electromagnets and their macro behavior. Eventually, the magnetic field models will be implemented in our controls simulations to facilitate precise control of the reaction sphere. Initial model results agree with field measurements to within 1 G (5% of measured flux density). Currently, we are testing different material properties of the electromagnets and their magnetic fields and thermal effects. These results will be used to refine the design of the electromagnetic dipoles. Our control efforts have centered on developing commutation, levitation, and field pattern shaping hardware in the form of breadboards and PCBs with software running on a local microcontroller. In addition, our partners developed MATLAB Simulink models to demonstrate a PID controller that mitigates disturbance forces resulting from the interaction of drive and levitation magnetics. Finally, we have designed a three-axis test stand that will be used in future work to demonstrate CELA’s orientation control capability.

reaction sphere↗

Aging of Limestones and Silane–Siloxane-Based Protective Hydrophobics: The Impact of Heating–Cooling and Freeze–Thaw Cycles

Stones are traditionally used in construction and architectural applications as building elements due to their aesthetic and technical/structural performance. Like other environmental factors (rain, humidity, moisture, salt presence, biological activity, etc.), heating–cooling and freeze–thaw cycles significantly threaten the longevity of stone materials. Hence, considering the socio-economic and cultural value of stones, preventive actions such as hydrophobic coatings are applied to prevent or mitigate damage. The scope of this study is the performance assessment of limestones with different characteristics and the efficiency of various commercial silane/siloxane-based hydrophobic coatings when exposed to thermal variation and freeze–thaw. For that purpose, the standards EN 14066:2013 (determination of resistance to aging by thermal shock) and EN 12371:2010 (determination of frost resistance) were followed. Open porosity and static contact angles were estimated to assess the stone durability and water protection capabilities of the hydrophobics. Additionally, sound speed propagation velocity, quality of building material index, elastic modulus and flexural strength were measured to evaluate the variation of mechanical properties. Static contact angle revealed that the coatings maintained an efficient level of hydrophobicity even after thermal-shock and freeze–thaw weathering tests. The study also revealed a critical interaction between freeze–thaw cycles, hydrophobic coatings and structural integrity of the stones, mostly on more porous ones. When they are subjected to harsh environmental conditions, untreated porous limestones keep structural cohesion, allowing for the natural absorption and release of water during freezing and thawing. On the contrary, when limestones are treated, the hydrophobic coatings can moderately obstruct the water release due to the partial saturation of the porous framework by the products. It also probably resulted from the different mechanical behavior between the inner matrix and layer of stone coated, resulting in a premature breakout and mechanical damage of the stone.

Lisci, Carla (ORCID:000000032179130X)↗

Biophysical impacts of Earth greening largely controlled by aerodynamic resistance

Satellite observations show widespread increasing trends of leaf area index (LAI), known as the Earth greening. However, the biophysical impacts of this greening on land surface temperature (LST) remain unclear. Here, we quantify the biophysical impacts of Earth greening on LST from 2000 to 2014 and disentangle the contributions of different factors using a physically based attribution model. We find that 93% of the global vegetated area shows negative sensitivity of LST to LAI increase at the annual scale, especially for semiarid woody vegetation. Further considering the LAI trends (P ≤ 0.1), 30% of the global vegetated area is cooled by these trends and 5% is warmed. Aerodynamic resistance is the dominant factor in controlling Earth greening’s biophysical impacts: The increase in LAI produces a decrease in aerodynamic resistance, thereby favoring increased turbulent heat transfer between the land and the atmosphere, especially latent heat flux.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extinction of a Free Methanol Droplet in Microgravity

The combustion of isolated, unsupported methanol droplets under microgravity conditions has been studied in the NASA-Lewis 2.2-sec drop tower. The substitution of O2/He mixtures for O2/N2 mixtures results in a substantial increase in the oxygen index required for ignition, the rate of gasification, and the diameter at extinction. As a result, droplets with initial size larger than 1 mm can be produced, deployed, ignited, and burned to extinction, all under microgravity conditions in this facility. A comprehensive time dependent numerical model incorporating detailed multicomponent molecular transport mechanisms and complex elementary chemical kinetics was developed and applied to simulate the entire transient droplet combustion processes (ignition/quasi-steady burning/extinction). Model outputs show good agreement with the experimental measurements, without parameter adjustment. Analysis of modeling results shows that the thermal conductivity of the gas phase under combustion environments increased by a factor of two when the 50-percent O2/50 percent He mixture is used instead of air. The increased thermal conductivity accelerates the heat transfer from the flame front to the droplet surface, resulting in a factor of two increase in the burning rate.

Cho, S. Y.↗

Metamaterial-Inspired Vacuum Electron Devices and Accelerators

Metamaterials (MTMs) are structured materials with subwavelength features that can be engineered to have some unique properties not found in nature, such as negative refractive index, reversed Doppler effect, and reversed Cherenkov radiation. Based on these novel MTMs, several important research groups have made great attempts to develop novel MTM-inspired vacuum electron devices (VEDs) and accelerators. Just as solid-state power devices are innovated by incessant emerging of new semiconductor materials, VEDs can also be inspired by MTMs to have very remarkable advantages, such as smaller size, higher power, higher efficiency, and/or larger gain relative to conventional VEDs, such as traveling-wave tubes, backward-wave oscillators, and klystrons. Similarly, relative to conventional accelerators, MTM-inspired accelerators have obvious advantages, such as smaller size and higher accelerating gradient. Furthermore, MTM-inspired devices have promising applications in areas such as radar, communication, electronic warfare, microwave heating, and imaging.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

A Numerical Study of the Urban Heat Island in the Coastal Tropical City of San Juan, Puerto Rico: Model Validation and Impacts of LCLU Changes

Urban sprawls in tropical locations are rapidly accelerating and it is more evident in islands where a large percentage of the population resides along the coasts. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover for urbanization in the tropical coastal city of San Juan, in the tropical island of Puerto Rico. A mesoscale numerical model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is used to study specific characteristics and patterns of the urban heat island in the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), the most noticeable urban core of the Caribbean. The research present in this paper makes use of the observations obtained during the airborne San Juan Atlas Mission in two ways. First, surface and rawinsonde data are used to validate the atmospheric model yielding satisfactory results. Second, airborne remote sensing information is used to update the model's surface characteristics to obtain a detailed configuration of the SJMA in order to perform the LCLU changes impact analysis. This analysis showed that the presence of San Juan has an impact reflected in higher air temperatures over the area occupied by the city, with positive values of up to 2.5 C, for the simulations that have specified urban LCLU indexes in the bottom boundary. One interesting result of the impact analysis was the finding of a precipitation disturbance shown as a difference in total accumulated rainfall between simulation with the city and with a potential natural vegetation induced by the presence of the urban area. Model results indicate that the urban-induced cloud formation and precipitation development occur mainly downwind of the city, including the accumulated precipitation. This spatial pattern can be explained by the presence of a-larger urbanized area in the southwest sector of the city, and of the approaching northeasterly trade winds.

Comarazamy, Daniel E.↗

Invited Talks at Naples and Coimbra

Prior to observations of the solar irradiance from space that began in 1979 there was no hope of obtaining even rough estimates of the solar irradiance variation over a solar cycle, since the space observations made since showed that the magnitude of the variation over a cycle to date is less than 0.1 %, a value too small to measure from the ground. At the same time, it would be useful to know the cycle-dependent variation over more than just the two recent cycles. Lacking a complete theory for the solar dynamo responsible for this variation, the current hope is to determine what proxy might yield the best values. Because there is an excellent database on sunspot umbral and penumbral areas from the Greenwich Observatory for the years 1874-1976 (but not beyond), the possibility exists that these data could be used. This talk will summarize results of a joint study in which satellite measurements of the solar irradiance variation are compared with ground-based measurements from the Coimbra Observatory of sunspot number, umbral area, and total sunspot area to determine which would serve as the best proxy for using the Greenwich observations back to 1874. From the near constancy of sunspot umbral magnetic fields upon which the useful parameter photometric sunspot index is based, we expected that umbral area would yield the beat proxy. To our surprise, after performing a statistical study of the observations over the period 1980-1990, preliminary indications are that sunspot number (a parameter available back into the 18th century) may be just as useful as the umbral area. As expected, both are quite superior as proxies to total sunspot area, which includes the penumbral area. This conclusion is consistent with earlier work of Hop and Schatten, who sought a proxy by studies of the umbral-penumbral area ratio. A second motivation for pursuing this work is the possibility that relatively small variations in the solar irradiance may induce larger responses in Earth's climate than would occur from simply introducing the corresponding heat differential into the terrestrial atmosphere. The talk will conclude with a description of why some climatologists are beginning to explore this possibility, which is suggest by some of the space observations used in the above search for a solar irradiance variation proxy.

Jordan, Stuart↗

Cryogenic Selective Surfaces

There are many challenges involved in deep-space exploration, but several of these can be mitigated, or even solved, by the development of a coating that reflects most of the Sun’s energy, yet still provides far-infrared heat emission. Such a coating would allow non-heat-generating objects in space to reach cryogenic temperatures without using an active cooling system. This would benefit deep-space sensors that require low temperatures, such as the James Webb Telescope focal plane array. It would also allow the use of superconductors in deep space, which could lead to magnetic energy storage rings, lossless power delivery, or perhaps a large-volume magnetic shield against galactic cosmic radiation. However, perhaps the most significant enablement achieved from such a coating would be the long-term, deep space storage of cryogenic liquids, such as liquid oxygen (LOX). In our Phase I NIAC study, we realized that a combination of scattering particles and a silver backing could yield a highly effective, very broadband, reflector that could potentially reflect more than 99.9% of the Sun’s irradiant power. We developed a sophisticated model of this reflector and theoretically showed that cryogenic temperatures could be achieved in deep space at one astronomical unit (1 AU) from the Sun. We showed how this new reflector could minimize heat conduction into the cryogenic tanks by coating the tank support struts. We then modelled a strawman architecture for a mission to Mars, using a coated LOX tank, coated struts, and infrared shields, to show that with our new coating it would be possible to maintain liquid oxygen passively. As a result of this work a patent application was generated and a paper published in Optics Letters. Our Phase II NIAC study had two primary goals, to develop a rigid version of the cryogenic selective surface proposed in Phase I and to test its performance in a simulated deep space environment. During the first year of the project the work concentrated on developing rigid tiles of BaF2, leading to tiles as large as 4 inches in diameter that transmitted very little visible light. In addition, during the first year a simulated deep space environment was created using a vacuum chamber and cryocooler. Using this facility, we showed that our BaF2 tiles absorbed less than ¼% of 375 nm radiation, a significant milestone for the work. During the second year of the project, we continued to develop the BaF2 tiles and we put significant effort into the construction of a deep space environment where we could project simulated solar radiation onto a sample. In the spring of 2018, we conducted our first solar simulator test with BaF2 and saw about 3.6% absorption. This is better than the state-of-the-art, but disappointing since predictions were for much lower absorption. We, erroneously, attributed this absorption to water retention by the BaF2, and decided to change materials. We considered several oxides and settled on yttrium oxide (Y2O3) for further development, because it is broadband, lightweight, has high index, and is hydrophobic. In July 2018 we conducted our first test of a rigid tile of Y2O3 in the simulated deep space environment and saw significant absorption again. We then realized that the issue was not water, but mid-wave radiation passing through the tile and being absorbed by the temperature sensor and the varnish used to hold it in place. We wrapped the sensor in silver foil, re-ran the test, and saw much lower absorption; only 1.1%. We then re-ran the BaF2 tile and saw 1.4% absorption. These values are almost adequate to maintain LOX in deep space, but we suspect that there are still issues in our test apparatus; we suspect thermocouple wires may be absorbing radiation. Further, post-NIAC, testing will better determine the performance of our new solar reflector. In order to restrict the size of this report, we will only briefly describe topics that we have previously published, allowing us to devote more time to new material. So minimal material will be devoted to modeling the material and deep space cryogenic storage, while longer sections will cover our material development, simulated deep space testing, and new applications. The Launch Service Program (LSP) requested that we explore ways to use this new coating to maintain LOX in low Earth Orbit and that work is described. In addition, the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) Program asked us to explore ways to reduce the heat load for liquid hydrogen, resulting in the development of a spray-on version of the coating that should significantly improve in-space multi-layer insulation performance.

Robert C. Youngquist,↗

Urban Surface Radiative Energy Budgets Determined Using Aircraft Scanner Data

It is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. The extent of these urban areas across the world can be seen in an image of city lights from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. In many areas of North America and Europe, it is difficult to separate individual cities because of the dramatic growth and sprawl of urbanized areas. This conversion of the natural landscape vegetation into man-made urban structures such as roads and buildings drastically alter the regional surface energy budgets, hydrology, precipitation patterns, and meteorology. One of the earliest recognized and measured phenomena of urbanization is the urban heat island (UHI) which was reported as early as 1833 for London and 1862 for Paris. The urban heat island results from the energy that is absorbed by man-made materials during the day and is released at night resulting in the heating of the air within the urban area. The magnitude of the air temperature difference between the urban and surrounding countryside is highly dependent on the structure of the urban area, amount of solar immolation received during the day, and atmospheric conditions during the night. These night time air temperature differences can be in the range of 2 to 5 C. or greater. Although day time air temperature differences between urban areas and the countryside exists during the day, atmospheric mixing and stability reduce the magnitude. This phenomena is not limited to large urban areas, but also occurs in smaller metropolitan areas. The UHI has significant impacts on the urban air quality, meteorology, energy use, and human health. The UPI can be mitigated through increasing the amount of vegetation and modification of urban surfaces using high albedo materials for roofs and paved surfaces. To understand why the urban heat island phenomenon exists it is useful to define the surface in terms of the surface energy budget. Surface temperature and albedo is a major component of the surface energy budget. Knowledge of it is important in any attempt to describe the radiative and mass fluxes which occur at the surface. Use of energy terms in modeling surface energy budgets allows the direct comparison of various land surfaces encountered in a urban landscape, from vegetated (forest and herbaceous) to non-vegetated (bare soil, roads, and buildings). These terms are also easily measured using remote sensing from aircraft or satellite platforms allowing one to examine the spacial variability. The partitioning of energy budget terms depends on the surface type. In natural landscapes, the partitioning is dependent on canopy biomass, leaf area index, aerodynamic roughness, and moisture status, all of which are influenced by the development stage of the ecosystem. In urban landscapes, coverage by man-made materials substantially alters the surface face energy budget. The remotely sensed data obtained from aircraft and satellites, when properly calibrated allows the measurement of important terms in the radiative surface energy budget a urban landscape scale.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

Prediction Skill of the MJO Teleconnection Signals in the NASA GEOS Subseasonal Reforecasts

Tropical-extratropical teleconnections are considered key to advancing subseasonal prediction. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), characterized by large scale convective envelopes propagating along the tropical Indo-Pacific sector, is known to modulate midlatitude circulation and associated weather patterns. Although there is a general consensus on the MJO's influence on the midlatitude circulation, which is thought to be due to modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North America (PNA) pattern, relatively less is known about the predictability of these teleconnection signals in dynamical forecast models. The composite evolution of the midlatitude circulation anomalies and associated wave train structure as the delayed response to tropical heating are reported in many studies that have examined reanalyses and long model simulations. However, it is yet to be determined whether they lend any beneficial subseasonal forecast skill, especially to weekly mean surface temperature and precipitation over North America. Investigating useful predictable signals from the MJO teleconnections is also complicated by the fact that the MJO is a moving heat source with an approximate periodicity of 30-60 days, and that the structure and amplitude of the midlatitude response can be sensitive to the longitudinal positioning of the heating anomaly as well as the propagation speed of the MJO. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of MJO teleconnections on forecast accuracy at 2-3 week lead over North America, with an emphasis on the above-mentioned lesser known aspects of these teleconnections. To this end, we utilize a suite of subseasonal reforecasts performed with the latest NASA GEOS-5 seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) system. These reforecasts were performed as part of the NOAA SubX project, wherein the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model was run at degree horizontal resolution, initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2016. The GEOS-5 model shows skillful predictions of the MJO, with the correlation coefficient based on the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index staying at or above 0.5 up to forecast lead 26-36 days. The system is thus a useful tool for investigating MJO teleconnection processes.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

Abstract Changes in ocean heat content (OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum. According to IAP/CAS data, the 0–2000 m OHC in 2022 exceeded that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 10 21 Joules); and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins (the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the “salty gets saltier—fresh gets fresher” pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2022, implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Regional OHC and salinity changes in 2022 were dominated by a strong La Niña event. Global upper-ocean stratification continued its increasing trend and was among the top seven in 2022.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗