Results for “Forecasting techniques” — Page 27

NASA NTRS1988

The role of radiation-dynamics interaction in regional numerical weather prediction

The role of radiation-dynamics interaction in regional numerical weather prediction of severe storm environment and mesoscale convective systems over the United States is researched. Based upon the earlier numerical model simulation experiments, it is believed that such interaction can have a profound impact on the dynamics and thermodynamics of regional weather systems. The research will be carried out using real-data model forecast experiments performed on the Cray-X/MP computer. The forecasting system to be used is a comprehensive mesoscale prediction system which includes analysis and initialization, the dynamic model, and the post-forecast diagnosis codes. The model physics are currently undergoing many improvements in parameterizing radiation processes in the model atmosphere. The forecast experiments in conjunction with in-depth model verification and diagnosis are aimed at a quantitative understanding of the interaction between atmospheric radiation and regional dynamical processes in mesoscale models as well as in nature. Thus, significant advances in regional numerical weather prediction can be made. Results shall also provide valuable information for observational designs in the area of remote sensing techniques to study the characteristics of air-land thermal interaction and moist processes under various atmospheric conditions.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Temporal Interpolation of Geostationary Satellite Imagery with Task Specific Optical Flow

Applications of satellite data in areas such as weather tracking and modeling, ecosystem monitoring, wildfire detection, and land-cover change are heavily dependent on the trade-offs to spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions of observations. In weather tracking, high-frequency temporal observations are critical and used to improve forecasts, study severe events, and extract atmospheric motion, among others. However, while the current generation of geostationary satellites have hemispheric coverage at 10-15 minute intervals, higher temporal frequency observations are ideal for studying mesoscale severe weather events. In this work, we apply a task specific optical flow approach to temporal up-sampling using deep convolutional neural networks. We apply this technique to 16-bands of GOES-R/Advanced Baseline Imager mesoscale dataset to temporally enhance full disk hemispheric snapshots of different spatial resolutions from 15 minutes to 1 minute. Experiments show the effectiveness of task specific optical flow and multi-scale blocks for interpolating high-frequency severe weather events relative to bilinear and global optical flow baselines. Lastly, we demonstrate strong performance in capturing variability during convective precipitation events.

Optical flow, temporal interpolation, geostationar↗

NASA NTRS1980

Estimation of within-stratum variance for sample allocation: Foreign commodity production forecasting

The problem of determining the stratum variances required for an optimum sample allocation for remotely sensed crop surveys is investigated with emphasis on an approach based on the concept of stratum variance as a function of the sampling unit size. A methodology using the existing and easily available information of historical statistics is developed for obtaining initial estimates of stratum variances. The procedure is applied to variance for wheat in the U.S. Great Plains and is evaluated based on the numerical results obtained. It is shown that the proposed technique is viable and performs satisfactorily with the use of a conservative value (smaller than the expected value) for the field size and with the use of crop statistics from the small political division level.

Chhikara, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Layden, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Mesoscale Assimilation of TRMM Data with 4DVAR: Preliminary Results

Surface rainfall data, derived from the TRMM Microwave Image (TMI), are assimilated into the PSU/NCAR MM5 model using a 4DVAR technique. Preliminary experiments are performed to incorporate TRMM rainfall data into a hurricane initialization. It is found that the rainfall data assimilation is sensitive to the error characteristics of the data and the physics in the adjoint model. In addition, assimilating the rainfall data alone produces a more realistic eye and rain bands in the hurricane but cannot ensure improvements of hurricane intensity forecasts. Numerical results indicate that it is necessary to incorporate TRMM rainfall data together with other types of data such as wind data into the model, in which case the inclusion of the rainfall data will further improve the intensity forecast of the hurricane. This fact might imply that some proper constraints will be needed for the rainfall assimilation. Relevant results and issues will be presented.

Pu, Zhoa-Xia↗

NASA NTRS2011

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations

Strong, Keith↗

NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations.

Sun: Corona↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Use of computer graphics for visualization of flow fields

A high-performance graphics workstation has been combined with software developed for flow-field visualization to yield a highly effective tool for analysis of fluid-flow dynamics. After the flow fields are obtained from experimental measurements or computer simulations, the workstation permits one to interactively view the dynamics of the flow fields; e.g., the viewer can zoom into a region or rotate his viewing position about the region to study it in more detail. Several techniques for visualization of flow fields with this workstation are described in this paper and illustrated with a videotape available from the authors. The computer hardware and software required to create effective flow visualization displays are discussed. Additional software and hardware required to create videotapes or 16mm movies are also described. Limitations imposed by current workstation performance is addressed and future workstation performance is forecast.

Watson, Val↗

NASA NTRS2004

Computationally-Efficient Minimum-Time Aircraft Routes in the Presence of Winds

A computationally efficient algorithm for minimizing the flight time of an aircraft in a variable wind field has been invented. The algorithm, referred to as Neighboring Optimal Wind Routing (NOWR), is based upon neighboring-optimal-control (NOC) concepts and achieves minimum-time paths by adjusting aircraft heading according to wind conditions at an arbitrary number of wind measurement points along the flight route. The NOWR algorithm may either be used in a fast-time mode to compute minimum- time routes prior to flight, or may be used in a feedback mode to adjust aircraft heading in real-time. By traveling minimum-time routes instead of direct great-circle (direct) routes, flights across the United States can save an average of about 7 minutes, and as much as one hour of flight time during periods of strong jet-stream winds. The neighboring optimal routes computed via the NOWR technique have been shown to be within 1.5 percent of the absolute minimum-time routes for flights across the continental United States. On a typical 450-MHz Sun Ultra workstation, the NOWR algorithm produces complete minimum-time routes in less than 40 milliseconds. This corresponds to a rate of 25 optimal routes per second. The closest comparable optimization technique runs approximately 10 times slower. Airlines currently use various trial-and-error search techniques to determine which of a set of commonly traveled routes will minimize flight time. These algorithms are too computationally expensive for use in real-time systems, or in systems where many optimal routes need to be computed in a short amount of time. Instead of operating in real-time, airlines will typically plan a trajectory several hours in advance using wind forecasts. If winds change significantly from forecasts, the resulting flights will no longer be minimum-time. The need for a computationally efficient wind-optimal routing algorithm is even greater in the case of new air-traffic-control automation concepts. For air-traffic-control automation, thousands of wind-optimal routes may need to be computed and checked for conflicts in just a few minutes. These factors motivated the need for a more efficient wind-optimal routing algorithm.

Jardin, Matthew R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique

High speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.

Space weather↗

NASA NTRS2021

Temporal Interpolation of Geostationary Satellite Imagery With Optical Flow

Applications of satellite data in areas such as weather tracking and modeling, ecosystem monitoring, wildfire detection, and land-cover change are heavily dependent on the tradeoffs to spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions of observations. In weather tracking, high-frequency temporal observations are critical and used to improve forecasts, study severe events, and extract atmospheric motion, among others. However, while the current generation of geostationary (GEO) satellites has hemispheric coverage at 10-15-min intervals, higher temporal frequency observations are ideal for studying mesoscale severe weather events. In this work, we present a novel application of deep learning-based optical flow to temporal upsampling of GEO satellite imagery. We apply this technique to 16 bands of the GOES-R/Advanced Baseline Imager mesoscale dataset to temporally enhance full-disk hemispheric snapshots of different spatial resolutions from 10 to 1 min. Experiments show the effectiveness of task-specific optical flow and multiscale blocks for interpolating high-frequency severe weather events relative to bilinear and global optical flow baselines. Finally, we demonstrate strong performance in capturing variability during convective precipitation events.

Image processing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancing Radiative Transfer Models for Optimized Assimilation of Microwave and Radar Observations

Radiative transfer models are extensively used for the assimilation of satellite observations into NWP models as well as retrieving geophysical products from satellite measurements. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a community model developed by NOAA JCSDA and widely used for different purposes requiring RT calculations. CRTM requires bulk optical properties of hydrometeors in the form of lookup tables in order to perform all-sky RT calculations. However, the current cloud scattering lookup tables in CRTM assume spherical shapes for all frozen hydrometeors, whereas actual clouds contain frozen particles with diverse shapes. The first part of this talk presents the implementation and validation of a comprehensive Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) cloud scattering database into CRTM, specifically targeting microwave frequencies. The DDA technique proves effective in simulating the optical properties of non-spherical hydrometeors in the microwave region. The original DDA database assumes total random orientation in calculating single scattering properties. To generate the required mass scattering parameters for CRTM, the single scattering properties and water content dependent particle size distributions are used. The evaluation of results involved a collocated dataset comprising short-term forecasts from the Integrated Forecast System of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and satellite microwave data. The findings demonstrate that the DDA lookup tables significantly reduce discrepancies between simulated and observed values when compared to the Mie tables. Passive instruments lack the ability to provide vertically resolved measurements of clouds and precipitation, which can be obtained by active radar instruments. However, incorporating these active measurements into data assimilation systems presents challenges due to the absence of fast forward radiative transfer models and difficulties in error modeling. The second part of the talk focuses on the development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of a forward radar model integrated into CRTM. The forward radar model utilizes scattering properties obtained from hydrometeor lookup tables generated using the discrete dipole approximation. By utilizing CRTM instrument-specific coefficients, the model can calculate both reflectivity and attenuated reflectivity for any given radar instrument and zenith angles. Evaluation using CloudSat measurements demonstrates a strong agreement between simulations and observations when the input profiles of hydrometeors align with the measured reflectivity profiles.

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Optimizing Assimilation of Microwave and Radar Observations in the NWP Models

Radiative transfer models are extensively used for the assimilation of satellite observations into NWP models as well as retrieving geophysical products from satellite measurements. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a community model developed by NOAA JCSDA and widely used for different purposes requiring RT calculations. CRTM requires bulk optical properties of hydrometeors in the form of lookup tables in order to perform all-sky RT calculations. However, the current cloud scattering lookup tables in CRTM assume spherical shapes for all frozen hydrometeors, whereas actual clouds contain frozen particles with diverse shapes. The first part of this talk presents the implementation and validation of a comprehensive Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) cloud scattering database into CRTM, specifically targeting microwave frequencies. The DDA technique proves effective in simulating the optical properties of non-spherical hydrometeors in the microwave region. The original DDA database assumes total random orientation in calculating single scattering properties. To generate the required mass scattering parameters for CRTM, the single scattering properties and water content dependent particle size distributions are used. The evaluation of results involved a collocated dataset comprising short-term forecasts from the Integrated Forecast System of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and satellite microwave data. The findings demonstrate that the DDA lookup tables significantly reduce discrepancies between simulated and observed values when compared to the Mie tables. Passive instruments lack the ability to provide vertically resolved measurements of clouds and precipitation, which can be obtained by active radar instruments. However, incorporating these active measurements into data assimilation systems presents challenges due to the absence of fast forward radiative transfer models and difficulties in error modeling. The second part of the talk focuses on the development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of a forward radar model integrated into CRTM. The forward radar model utilizes scattering properties obtained from hydrometeor lookup tables generated using the discrete dipole approximation. By utilizing CRTM instrument-specific coefficients, the model can calculate both reflectivity and attenuated reflectivity for any given radar instrument and zenith angles. Evaluation using CloudSat measurements demonstrates a strong agreement between simulations and observations when the input profiles of hydrometeors align with the measured reflectivity profiles.

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Spaceborne Microwave and Radar Observations

Radiative transfer models are extensively used for the assimilation of satellite observations into NWP models as well as retrieving geophysical products from satellite measurements. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a community model developed by NOAA JCSDA and widely used for different purposes requiring RT calculations. CRTM requires bulk optical properties of hydrometeors in the form of lookup tables in order to perform all-sky RT calculations. However, the current cloud scattering lookup tables in CRTM assume spherical shapes for all frozen hydrometeors, whereas actual clouds contain frozen particles with diverse shapes. The first part of this talk presents the implementation and validation of a comprehensive Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) cloud scattering database into CRTM, specifically targeting microwave frequencies. The DDA technique proves effective in simulating the optical properties of non-spherical hydrometeors in the microwave region. The original DDA database assumes total random orientation in calculating single scattering properties. To generate the required mass scattering parameters for CRTM, the single scattering properties and water content dependent particle size distributions are used. The evaluation of results involved a collocated dataset comprising short-term forecasts from the Integrated Forecast System of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and satellite microwave data. The findings demonstrate that the DDA lookup tables significantly reduce discrepancies between simulated and observed values when compared to the Mie tables. Passive instruments lack the ability to provide vertically resolved measurements of clouds and precipitation, which can be obtained by active radar instruments. However, incorporating these active measurements into data assimilation systems presents challenges due to the absence of fast forward radiative transfer models and difficulties in error modeling. The second part of the talk focuses on the development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of a forward radar model integrated into CRTM. The forward radar model utilizes scattering properties obtained from hydrometeor lookup tables generated using the discrete dipole approximation. By utilizing CRTM instrument-specific coefficients, the model can calculate both reflectivity and attenuated reflectivity for any given radar instrument and zenith angles. Evaluation using CloudSat measurements demonstrates a strong agreement between simulations and observations when the input profiles of hydrometeors align with the measured reflectivity profiles.

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRS1986

Satellite contributions to convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

Severe weather phenomena which are amenable to remote sensing by satellite instruments and having resolution fine enough to discern mesoscale features are described. GOES satellites acquire imagery with 1 km resolution in the visible band and 8 km at IR wavelengths. Animation of the images allows tracking the evolution and motions of clouds, which are the prime indicators of convective activity. Sample satellite imagery of sea, lake and river breezes which reveal differential heating processes, the effect of early morning cloud cover, thunderstorm outflow processes, and mesoscale convective systems are provided. Techniques for analyzing the satellite data to predict the onset of severe weather are discussed.

Purdom, James F. W.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Evolution of snow sensors and the potential of microwave devices in operational telemetry networks

Both manually collected snow-course data and telemetered information from SNOTEL sites throughout the western United States are used to make forecasts of streamflow. Although these conventional methods have proven highly reliable over the years, they still exhibit some shortcomings. Active and passive microwave remote sensing systems recently developed and tests present the potential to eliminate some negative aspects associated with other types of sensors currently in use. Because of their ability to see through the snowpack they offer a unique opportunity to improve snowpack measurement techniques. As yet neither the active nor passive system is developed sufficiently to supplant existing methods in operational telemetry networks. Active microwave sensors are the most promising for the near future and are being used in research and development programs to study snow pillow performance in the SNOTEL system.

Shafer, B. A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

TPSAS-NF1676L-30290-DND

The Summer 2017 Ozone Water Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS) mission set out to compare the differences in ozone concentrations between inland measurements of air quality, specifically at Langley Research Center (LaRC), and measurements taken over water, specifically on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel (CBBT), as well as the vertical profiles above each location. Current weather models often predict a gradient in ozone concentration between land and ocean and this campaign attempted to capture this difference using hand-held Personal Ozone Monitors (POMs) in correspondence to ozonesondes and LIDAR measurements. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) is the first geostationary satellite that will take hourly measurements to monitor air pollutants across North America using solar backscatter. The small footprint allows for higher spatial resolution readings of many parameters including O3, NO2 , and aerosol. TEMPO’s higher resolution readings would benefit from validation techniques on the ground. Validation methods usually include comparison to air quality monitoring stations, but they could also incorporate other forms of validation such as comparison to small sensors. In cooperation with TEMPO, OWLETS aims to provide the user community high resolution temporal and spatial, both horizontal and vertical, variability of O3 simultaneously over the land and water during various air quality events to improve forecast models and air quality satellite retrievals. Together, these missions will improve spatial resolution and capture temporal variability of air quality over North America.

Emily Gargulinski↗