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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global monthly sectoral water use for 2010–2100 at 0.5° resolution across alternative futures

Water usage is closely linked with societal goals that are both local and global in scale, such as sustainable development and economic growth. It is therefore of value, particularly for long-term planning, to understand how future sectoral water usage could evolve on a global scale at fine resolution. Additionally, future water usage could be strongly shaped by global forces, such as socioeconomic and climate change, and the multi-sector dynamic interactions those forces create. We generate a novel global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawal and consumption dataset at 0.5° resolution for 2010–2100 for a diverse range of 75 scenarios. The scenarios are harmonized with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to support its usage in studies evaluating the implications of uncertain human and earth system change for future global and regional dynamics. To generate the data, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a land use spatial downscaling model (Demeter), a global hydrologic framework (Xanthos), and a water withdrawal downscaling model (Tethys).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation

The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the ‘tipping year’ Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How will future climate change impact prescribed fire across the contiguous United States?

As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system

Abstract Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066–2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Engage the Public in Science and Embrace Future Change with Human-Centric Stories, Art, and Imaginings

Human-centric stories that weave in real scientific data may be able to engage the public in environmental issues that do not yet directly affect them. Science fiction and artistically rendered futuristic scenarios can unleash the imagination and act as a lens to envision technological, social, and cultural aspects of transitioning to clean energy. Cultures with strong oral traditions use stories to record history, develop a shared identity, pass on environmental lessons, and prepare for future change. Through the lenses of our non-physical science disciplines (cultural anthropology and environmental sociology), we discuss challenges to communicating science, the use of narratives to illustrate ecosystem processes, and we report on a collaborative, interdisciplinary workshop and book project that is creating narratives of hope and visions for the future through inspiring art, short stories, and essays. We explore the surprising potential of 'cli-fi,' humor, games, and the research behind emotion and imagination-driven engagement. We describe methods that help people visualize their future well-being and we explore opportunities to spread those methods.

clean energy↗
DOE OSTI2014

Irradiation imposed degradation of the mechanical and electrical properties of electrical insulation for future accelerator magnets

Future accelerators will make extensive use of superconductors made of Nb{sub 3}Sn, which allows higher magnetic fields than NbTi. However, the wind-and-react technology of Nb{sub 3}Sn superconducting magnet production makes polyimide Kapton® non applicable for the coils' electrical insulation. A Nb{sub 3}Sn technology compatible insulation material should be characterized by high radiation resistivity, good thermal conductivity, and excellent mechanical properties. Candidate materials for the electrical insulation of future accelerator's magnet coils have to be radiation certified with respect to potential degradation of their electrical, thermal, and mechanical properties. This contribution presents procedures and results of tests of the electrical and mechanical properties of DGEBA epoxy + D400 hardener, which is one of the candidates for the electrical insulation of future magnets. Two test sample types have been used to determine the material degradation due to irradiation: a untreated one (unirradiated) and irradiated at 77 K with 11 kGy/min intense, 4MeV energy electrons beam to a total dose of 50 MGy.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2013

Predicting future space near-IR grism surveys using the WFC3 infrared spectroscopic parallels survey

We present near-infrared emission line counts and luminosity functions from the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 Infrared Spectroscopic Parallels (WISP) program for 29 fields (0.037 deg{sup 2}) observed using both the G102 and G141 grism. Altogether we identify 1048 emission line galaxies with observed equivalent widths greater than 40 Å, 467 of which have multiple detected emission lines. We use simulations to correct for significant (>20%) incompleteness introduced in part by the non-dithered, non-rotated nature of the grism parallels. The WISP survey is sensitive to fainter flux levels ((3-5) × 10{sup –17} erg s{sup –1} cm{sup –2}) than the future space near-infrared grism missions aimed at baryonic acoustic oscillation cosmology ((1-4) × 10{sup –16} erg s{sup –1} cm{sup –2}), allowing us to probe the fainter emission line galaxies that the shallower future surveys may miss. Cumulative number counts of 0.7 < z < 1.5 galaxies reach 10,000 deg{sup –2} above an Hα flux of 2 × 10{sup –16} erg s{sup –1} cm{sup –2}. Hα-emitting galaxies with comparable [O III] flux are roughly five times less common than galaxies with just Hα emission at those flux levels. Galaxies with low Hα/[O III] ratios are very rare at the brighter fluxes that future near-infrared grism surveys will probe; our survey finds no galaxies with Hα/[O III] < 0.95 that have Hα flux greater than 3 × 10{sup –16} erg s{sup –1} cm{sup –2}. Our Hα luminosity function contains a comparable number density of faint line emitters to that found by the Near IR Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer near-infrared grism surveys, but significantly fewer (factors of 3-4 less) high-luminosity emitters. We also find that our high-redshift (z = 0.9-1.5) counts are in agreement with the high-redshift (z = 1.47) narrowband Hα survey of HiZELS (Sobral et al.), while our lower redshift luminosity function (z = 0.3-0.9) falls slightly below their z = 0.84 result. The evolution in both the Hα luminosity function from z = 0.3-1.5 and the [O III] luminosity function from z = 0.7-2.3 is almost entirely in the L {sub *} parameter, which steadily increases with redshift over those ranges.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Neutrino constraints from future nearly all-sky spectroscopic galaxy surveys

We examine whether future, nearly all-sky galaxy redshift surveys, in combination with CMB priors, will be able to detect the signature of the cosmic neutrino background and determine the absolute neutrino mass scale. We also consider what constraints can be imposed on the effective number of neutrino species. In particular we consider two spectroscopic strategies in the near-IR, the so-called ''slitless'' and ''multi-slit'' approaches, whose examples are given by future space-based galaxy surveys, as EUCLID for the slitless case, or SPACE, JEDI, and possibly WFIRST in the future, for the multi-slit case. We find that, in combination with Planck, these galaxy probes will be able to detect at better than 3-sigma level and measure the mass of cosmic neutrinos: a) in a cosmology-independent way, if the sum of neutrino masses is above 0.1 eV; b) assuming spatial flatness and that dark energy is a cosmological constant, otherwise. We find that the sensitivity of such surveys is well suited to span the entire range of neutrino masses allowed by neutrino oscillation experiments, and to yield a clear detection of non-zero neutrino mass. The detection of the cosmic relic neutrino background with cosmological experiments will be a spectacular confirmation of our model for the early Universe and a window into one of the oldest relic components of our Universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A cosmological exclusion plot: towards model-independent constraints on modified gravity from current and future growth rate data

Most cosmological constraints on modified gravity are obtained assuming that the cosmic evolution was standard ΛCDM in the past and that the present matter density and power spectrum normalization are the same as in a ΛCDM model. Here we examine how the constraints change when these assumptions are lifted. We focus in particular on the parameter Y (also called G{sub eff}) that quantifies the deviation from the Poisson equation. This parameter can be estimated by comparing with the model-independent growth rate quantity fσ{sub 8}(z) obtained through redshift distortions. We reduce the model dependency in evaluating Y by marginalizing over σ{sub 8} and over the initial conditions, and by absorbing the degenerate parameter Ω{sub m,0} into Y. We use all currently available values of fσ{sub 8}(z). We find that the combination Y-circumflex =YΩ{sub m,0}, assumed constant in the observed redshift range, can be constrained only very weakly by current data, Y-circumflex =0.28{sub −0.23}{sup +0.35} at 68% c.l. We also forecast the precision of a future estimation of Y-circumflex in a Euclid-like redshift survey. We find that the future constraints will reduce substantially the uncertainty, Y-circumflex =0.30{sub −0.09}{sup +0.08} , at 68% c.l., but the relative error on Y-circumflex around the fiducial remains quite high, of the order of 30%. The main reason for these weak constraints is that Y-circumflex is strongly degenerate with the initial conditions, so that large or small values of Y-circumflex are compensated by choosing non-standard initial values of the derivative of the matter density contrast. Finally, we produce a forecast of a cosmological exclusion plot on the Yukawa strength and range parameters, which complements similar plots on laboratory scales but explores scales and epochs reachable only with large-scale galaxy surveys. We find that future data can constrain the Yukawa strength to within 3% of the Newtonian one if the range is around a few Megaparsecs. In the particular case of f(R) models, we find that the Yukawa range will be constrained to be larger than 80 Mpc/h or smaller than 2 Mpc/h (95% c.l.), regardless of the specific f(R) model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Effects of self-calibration of intrinsic alignment on cosmological parameter constraints from future cosmic shear surveys

Intrinsic alignments (IA) of galaxies have been recognized as one of the most serious contaminants to weak lensing. These systematics need to be isolated and mitigated in order for ongoing and future lensing surveys to reach their full potential. The IA self-calibration (SC) method was shown in previous studies to be able to reduce the GI contamination by up to a factor of 10 for the 2-point and 3-point correlations. The SC method does not require the assumption of an IA model in its working and can extract the GI signal from the same photo-z survey offering the possibility to test and understand structure formation scenarios and their relationship to IA models. In this paper, we study the effects of the IA SC mitigation method on the precision and accuracy of cosmological parameter constraints from future cosmic shear surveys LSST, WFIRST and Euclid. We perform analytical and numerical calculations to estimate the loss of precision and the residual bias in the best fit cosmological parameters after the self-calibration is performed. We take into account uncertainties from photometric redshifts and the galaxy bias. We find that the confidence contours are slightly inflated from applying the SC method itself while a significant increase is due to the inclusion of the photo-z uncertainties. The bias of cosmological parameters is reduced from several-σ, when IA is not corrected for, to below 1-σ after SC is applied. These numbers are comparable to those resulting from applying the method of marginalizing over IA model parameters despite the fact that the two methods operate very differently. We conclude that implementing the SC for these future cosmic-shear surveys will not only allow one to efficiently mitigate the GI contaminant but also help to understand their modeling and link to structure formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards testing the theory of gravity with DESI: summary statistics, model predictions and future simulation requirements

Shortly after its discovery, General Relativity (GR) was applied to predict the behavior of our Universe on the largest scales, and later became the foundation of modern cosmology. Its validity has been verified on a range of scales and environments from the Solar system to merging black holes. However, experimental confirmations of GR on cosmological scales have so far lacked the accuracy one would hope for — its applications on those scales being largely based on extrapolation and its validity there sometimes questioned in the shadow of the discovery of the unexpected cosmic acceleration. Future astronomical instruments surveying the distribution and evolution of galaxies over substantial portions of the observable Universe, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), will be able to measure the fingerprints of gravity and their statistical power will allow strong constraints on alternatives to GR. In this paper, based on a set of N-body simulations and mock galaxy catalogs, we study the predictions of a number of traditional and novel summary statistics beyond linear redshift distortions in two well-studied modified gravity models — chameleon f(R) gravity and a braneworld model — and the potential of testing these deviations from GR using DESI. These summary statistics employ a wide array of statistical properties of the galaxy and the underlying dark matter field, including two-point and higher-order statistics, environmental dependence, redshift space distortions and weak lensing. We find that they hold promising power for testing GR to unprecedented precision. The major future challenge is to make realistic, simulation-based mock galaxy catalogs for both GR and alternative models to fully exploit the statistic power of the DESI survey (by matching the volumes and galaxy number densities of the mocks to those in the real survey) and to better understand the impact of key systematic effects. Using these, we identify future simulation and analysis needs for gravity tests using DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Exotic decays of the 125 GeV Higgs boson at future e + e – colliders

Discovery of unexpected properties of the Higgs boson offers an intriguing opportunity of shedding light on some of the most profound puzzles in particle physics. The Beyond Standard Model (BSM) decays of the Higgs boson could reveal new physics in a direct manner. Future electron-positron lepton colliders operating as Higgs factories, including CEPC, FCC-ee and ILC, with the advantages of a clean collider environment and large statistics, could greatly enhance the sensitivity in searching for these BSM decays. In this work, we perform a general study of Higgs exotic decays at future $e^+e^-$ lepton colliders, focusing on the Higgs decays with hadronic final states and/or missing energy, which are very challenging for the High-Luminosity program of the Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC). We show that with simple selection cuts, $O(10^{-3}\sim10^{-5})$ limits on the Higgs exotic decay branching fractions can be achieved using the leptonic decaying spectator $Z$ boson in the associated production mode $e^+e^-\rightarrow Z H$. We further discuss the interplay between the detector performance and Higgs exotic decay, and other possibilities of exotic decays. Finally, our work is a first step in a comprehensive study of Higgs exotic decays at future lepton colliders, which is a key ingredient of Higgs physics that deserves further investigation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Social-ecological network analysis for sustainability sciences: a systematic review and innovative research agenda for the future

Social-ecological network (SEN) concepts and tools are increasingly used in human-environment and sustainability sciences. We take stock of this budding research area to further show the strength of SEN analysis for complex human-environment settings, identify future synergies between SEN and wider human-environment research, and provide guidance about when to use different kinds of SEN approaches and models. We characterize SEN research along a spectrum specifying the degree of explicit network representation of system components and dynamics. We then systematically review one end of this spectrum, what we term ‘fully articulated SEN’ studies, which specifically model unique social and ecological units and relationships. Results show a larger number of papers focus on methodological advancement and applied ends. While there has been some development and testing of theories, this remains an area for future work and would help develop SENs as a unique field of research, not just a method. Authors have studied diverse systems, while mainly focusing on the problem of social-ecological fit alongside a scattering of other topics. There is strong potential, however, to engage other issues central to human-environment studies. Analyzing the simultaneous effects of multiple social, environmental, and coupled processes, change over time, and linking network structures to outcomes are also areas for future advancement. This review provides a comprehensive assessment of (fully articulated) SEN research, a necessary step that can help scholars develop comparable cases and fill research gaps.

environmental governance↗
DOE OSTI2021

US wildfire potential: a historical view and future projection using high-resolution climate data

Abstract Recent wildfires in the western United States have led to substantial economic losses and social stresses. There is a great concern that the new climatic state may further increase the intensity, duration, and frequency of wildfires. To examine temporal and spatial features of historical wildfire trends and future changes, a common fire index, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), is calculated over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska. We introduce an efficient initialization method and calculate 36 years (1982–2017) of historical KBDI at 4 km using a high-quality observational dataset. KBDIs are also calculated at 12 km using regional climate models and extended into the mid- and late-21st century. Based on the observational data, annual mean (and 95th percentile) KBDI over forested regions in the southwestern and northwestern CONUS has risen since 1982 at a rate of 5.2 (4.0) and 2.9 (3.3) per year, respectively, indicating a persistent drying trend fostering fire activities; the number of days exceeding the top 5% historical KBDI has increased by 16 and 25 d in the 36 years. Multiple regional climate model simulations project increasing wildfire potential and longer fire seasons over broader areas based on the estimated KBDI for the mid- and late-21st century. By the end of the century, most of the CONUS would experience about 90–189 more days per year exceeding the historical local maximum KBDI; areas with high KBDI (>600), whose occurrence correlates with large burned area, are projected to broaden by nearly 60 times in the southern CONUS. While both temperature and precipitation contribute to future KBDI changes, warming is the main driver of more frequent, intense and wide-spread extreme wildfires indicated by high KBDIs in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The implications of future climate change on the blue water footprint of hydropower in the contiguous US

As the largest renewable energy source, hydropower is essential to the sustainability of the global energy market. However, a considerable amount of water can be lost in the form of evaporation from the associated multipurpose reservoirs, and hence enlarge the blue water footprint (BWF) of hydropower in a warming climate. To facilitate the sustainable management of both water and energy resources under the impact of climate change in the contiguous United States (CONUS), the BWF values of 143 major multipurpose reservoirs were evaluated during the historical period (1985–2014) and two future periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099). The historical reservoir evaporation loss was calculated using the Landsat-based reservoir surface area and a new evaporation rate algorithm that considers the heat storage effect. Future projections of runoff availability, hydropower generation, and reservoir evaporation were estimated based on the downscaled climate model ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It was found that the BWF for the CONUS is highly spatially heterogeneous, with an average value of 26.2 m 3 /MWh in the historical period. In the future, the BWF values are projected to increase under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. This is especially noticeable under RCP 8.5, which has an average BWF value of 30.2 m 3 /MWh for 2070–2099 (increasing by 15.3% from 26.2 m 3 /MWh). The uncertainty ranges increase even more, from 3.4 m 3 /MWh during 2020–2049 to 5.7 m 3 /MWh during 2070–2099. These findings can benefit water and energy resources management in identifying suitable environmental, economic, operational, and investment strategies for multipurpose reservoirs in a changing environment.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the future of global energy-for-water

This study incorporates the energy demands of water abstraction, treatment, distribution, and post-use (wastewater) treatment into the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated human-Earth systems model, and analyzes a range of scenarios that estimate the future evolution of this demand of energy. The study builds on prior research on the historical demands of energy-for-water, fitting these demands of energy into existing nation-level energy balances, where demands for energy-for-water have heretofore been aggregated with other energy use in the commercial and public services, industrial, agricultural, and/or electric power sectors. This development allows for improved projections of future energy demands in general, and in this study, allows for assessment of the energy implications of different scenarios of improvements in water access and water quality that are consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. In our baseline scenario, energy-for-water approximately doubles from 2010 to 2050, and in the scenario with the greatest level of water access, standards for treatment of wastewater, and irrigation expansion, the consequent energy-for-water demands increase three-fold from 2010 to 2050. Note also that these increases do not consider future scarcity-driven increases in energy requirements per unit of water abstraction, treatment, and distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Future evolution of virtual water trading in the United States electricity sector

Abstract Future transformations in the electricity sector could entail major shifts in power sector technology mixes and electricity trade, with consequences for the trading of virtual water. Previous virtual water trade studies largely focus on historical timeframes. We explore, for the first time, future—through 2050—virtual water trade driven by electricity trade under a range of future electricity sector transformation scenarios using the United States as an example. Under a business-as-usual scenario, virtual water trading in 2050 decreases by 3% relative to 2015 levels. By contrast, virtual water trading increases respectively by 3%, 26%, and 32%, in scenarios characterized by higher socioeconomic growth, higher potential for transmission expansion, and low-carbon transitions. These increases are driven by electricity generation expansion in the western U.S., resulting in higher virtual water trade to the east. In addition, we find that as electricity generation shifts west, an increased amount of nonrenewable groundwater will be consumed to generate electricity that is supplied to the east. Independent of scenario, the US electricity grid largely relies on virtual water exports from only a few states. Our study highlights the need for integrated and national strategies to manage the water and electric systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗