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At least 487 records · Page 27

Large‐Scale Statistically Meaningful Patterns (LSMPs) Associated With Precipitation Extremes Over Northern California

Abstract We analyze large‐scale statistically meaningful patterns (LSMPs) that precede extreme precipitation (PEx) events over Northern California (NorCal). We find LSMPs by applying k‐means clustering to the two leading principal components of daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies two days before the onset, from October to March during 1948–2015. Statistical significance testing based on Monte Carlo simulations suggests a minimum of four statistically distinguished LSMP clusters. The four LSMP clusters are characterized as Northwest continental negative height anomaly, Eastward positive “Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA),” Westward negative “PNA,” and Prominent Alaskan ridge. These four clusters, shown in multiple variables, evolve very differently and have differing links to the Arctic and tropical Pacific regions. Using binary forecast skill measures and a new copula‐based framework for predicting PEx events, we find LSMP indices that are useful predictors of NorCal PEx events, with moisture‐based variables being the best predictors of PEx events at least 6 days before the onset, and the lower atmospheric variables being better than their upper atmospheric counterparts any day in advance tested. To ensure statistical rigor, the LSMPs analyzed here (with the modified acronym) include local tests of both significance and consistency, which are not always featured in the literature on large‐scale meteorological patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events

Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. Here, in this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atm and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future.

Atmospheric blocking↗

Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll

Enewetak Atoll underwent 43 historical nuclear tests from 1948 to 1958, including the first hydrogen bomb test, resulting in a substantial nuclear material fallout contaminating the Atoll and the lagoon waters. The radionuclide fallout material deposited in lagoon sediments and land soil will remain for decades to come. With intensifying climate and extreme weather events, the possibility of redistribution of deposited radionuclide material has become a great concern. This study uses a numerical modeling approach to estimate the potential elevated radionuclide concentrations that can be distributed during storm events under current and future climates. We simulated three historical storm scenarios that are most likely to impact Atoll’s environment and remobilize the radionuclide-bound sediments. WRF-ARW was used to reconstruct these storm scenarios under current year (2015) and future year (2090) climates. Storm-induced ocean hydrodynamics conditions were generated using FVCOM. FVCOM-ICM was externally coupled to simulate the fate and transport of radionuclides. Given that the 239 Pu is the largest inventory of the lagoon and Atoll islands, the model results show the highest average 239 Pu concentration that an island may be exposed to is 3.25E-4 Bq/m 3 (becquerel per cubic meters), which is an increase of 84 times the average baseline/existing 239 Pu concentration without the storm conditions. The overall increase in 239 Pu average over all the islands of Atoll is about 20 folds relative to the baseline concentration. Despite the high relative increase ratios, the significantly low activity concentrations may not pose an immediate exposure risk. However, due to the limitations of the study and uncertainties/biases in the historical data used, further research supported by field surveys to better characterize the current contamination level may be needed to make more accurate predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tin removal by an annular surface wave plasma antenna in an extreme ultraviolet lithography source

Tin contamination of the collector mirror surface remains one of the crucial issues of EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) sources, directly impacting the availability of the tool. Hydrogen plasma-based tin removal processes employ hydrogen radicals and ions to interact with tin deposits to form gaseous tin hydride (SnH 4 ), which can be removed through pumping. An annular surface wave plasma (SWP) source developed at the University of Illinois—Urbana Champaign is integrated into the cone and perimeter of the collection mirror for in situ tin removal. The SWP is characterized by high ion and radical densities, low electron temperature, and local generation where etching is needed. This method has the potential to significantly reduce downtime and increase mirror lifetime. Radical probe measurements show hydrogen radical densities in the order of 10 19 m -3 , while Langmuir probe measurements show electron temperatures of up to 6 eV and plasma densities on the order of 10 17–18 m -3 . The generated ions are essential to the tin cleaning and have sufficiently low energy to cause no damage to the collector capping layer. Tin etch rates of up to 270 nm/min were observed in a variety of experimental conditions, including various powers, pressures, flowrates, and temperatures. In conclusion, the high etch rates demonstrated in this study exceed the expected contamination rate of the EUV source.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A beamline for ultrafast extreme ultraviolet magneto-optical spectroscopy in reflection near the shot noise limit

High harmonic generation (HHG) makes it possible to measure spin and charge dynamics in materials on femtosecond to attosecond timescales. However, the extreme nonlinear nature of the high harmonic process means that intensity fluctuations can limit measurement sensitivity. Here we present a noise-canceled, tabletop high harmonic beamline for time-resolved reflection mode spectroscopy of magnetic materials. We use a reference spectrometer to independently normalize the intensity fluctuations of each harmonic order and eliminate long term drift, allowing us to make spectroscopic measurements near the shot noise limit. Here, these improvements allow us to significantly reduce the integration time required for high signal-to-noise (SNR) measurements of element-specific spin dynamics. Looking forward, improvements in the HHG flux, optical coatings, and grating design can further reduce the acquisition time for high SNR measurements by 1–2 orders of magnitude, enabling dramatically improved sensitivity to spin, charge, and phonon dynamics in magnetic materials.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Implementation of extreme ultraviolet spectroscopy on a sheared-flow-stabilized Z pinch

A diagnostic for extreme ultraviolet spectroscopy was fielded on the sheared-flow-stabilized (SFS) fusion Z-pinch experiment (FuZE-Q) for the first time. The spectrometer collected time-gated plasma emission spectra in the 5–40 nm wavelength (30–250 eV) range for impurity identification, radiative power studies, and for plasma temperature and density measurements. The unique implementation of the diagnostic included fast (10 ns risetime) pulsed high voltage electronics and a multi-stage differential pumping system that allowed the vacuum-coupled spectrometer to collect three independently timed spectra per FuZE-Q shot while also protecting sensitive internal components. Analysis of line emission identifies oxygen (N-, C-, B-, Be-, Li-, and He-like O), peaking in intensity shortly after maximum current (>500 kA). This work provides a foundation for future high energy spectroscopy experiments on SFS Z-pinch devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Optical design and efficiency measurement of an extreme ultraviolet high-resolution spectrometer for unresolved transition array research

Understanding the structures of the unresolved transition array (UTA) observed in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectra from many-electron atoms is crucial for various applications, including fusion science and nanolithography. Here, to measure the fine structure of the UTA from tungsten and tin at around 5 and 13.5 nm at the Tokyo electron beam ion trap, we developed a high-resolution EUV spectrometer. The designed spectrometer achieves a resolving power of λ/dλ > 5000 at 5 and 13.5 nm. The fabricated large-area grating was experimentally examined at beamline BL5B of the UVSOR synchrotron facility to evaluate the diffraction efficiencies and their variation across the ruled area. The measured diffraction efficiencies are 0.65% ± 0.07% at 5 nm (second order) and 7.9% ± 0.2% at 13.5 nm (first order). The variation in the diffraction efficiency across the ruled area is 2.2%, 13.6%, and 10.0% in zeroth, first, and second order diffractions, respectively. The discrepancies in diffraction efficiencies between the experiments and the calculations were 5.2%, 29%, and 35% for the zeroth, first, and second diffraction orders, respectively.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The universal thermodynamic properties of extremely compact objects

An extremely compact object (ECO) is defined as a quantum object without horizon, whose radius is just a small distance s outside its Schwarzschild radius. We show that any ECO of mass M in d + 1 dimensions with s << (M/m p ) 2/(d-2)(d+1) lp must have (at leading order) the same thermodynamic properties—temperature, entropy and radiation rates—as the corresponding semiclassical black hole of mass M. An essential aspect of the argument involves showing that the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff equation has no consistent solution in the region just outside the ECO surface, unless this region is filled with radiation at the (appropriately blueshifted) Hawking temperature. In string theory it has been found that black hole microstates are fuzzballs—objects with no horizon—which are expected to have a radius that is only a little larger than the horizon radius. Thus the arguments of this paper provide a nice closure to the fuzzball paradigm: the absence of a horizon removes the information paradox, and the thermodynamic properties of the semiclassical hole are nonetheless recovered to an excellent approximation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Attosecond synchronization of extreme ultraviolet high harmonics from crystals

The interaction of strong near-infrared (NIR) laser pulses with wide-bandgap dielectrics produces high harmonics in the extreme ultraviolet (XUV) wavelength range. These observations have opened up the possibility of attosecond metrology in solids, which would benefit from a precise measurement of the emission times of individual harmonics with respect to the NIR laser field. In this work, we show that, when high-harmonics are detected from the input surface of a magnesium oxide crystal, a bichromatic probing of the XUV emission shows a clear synchronization largely consistent with a semiclassical model of electron–hole recollisions in bulk solids. On the other hand, the bichromatic spectrogram of harmonics originating from the exit surface of the 200 μm-thick crystal is strongly modified, indicating the influence of laser field distortions during propagation. Our tracking of sub-cycle electron and hole re-collisions at XUV energies is relevant to the development of solid-state sources of attosecond pulses.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Economic losses from extreme weather in the U.S. Gulf Coast region: spatially differential contributions of climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability

Worldwide economic losses from extreme weather events (EWE) have increased over recent decades, with significant geographic heterogeneity in damages. The IPCC defines the risk from EWE as a function of the climate hazard, socioeconomic exposure, and vulnerability. Although these three drivers vary at fine spatial scales, spatial variability largely has been overlooked in assessments of the drivers of economic loss from EWE. Using cluster analysis, we developed a novel socio-climate hazard typology (SCT) that integrates locally defined climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and social vulnerability typologies. The results identified 838 unique SCT types impacted by EWE across the Gulf Coastal United States during 1981–2010. We regressed the SCT types and their constituent hazard and socioeconomic components against the cumulative economic loss (1981–2010) from EWE for each SCT type. Across the landscape, economic damages of SCT types were determined by unique, spatially explicit combinations of different risk factors, even in explaining the same level of economic loss. For example, multi-billion-dollar damages in the central Gulf Coast and peninsular Florida were explained by different drivers of risk, with damages in the former explained by additive interaction between climate hazard and multiplicative interaction between climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability, and in the latter explained by socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability. These results highlight the need to diagnose additive and multiplicative interactions among drivers of EWE risk in a spatially explicit context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Theory of anisotropic elastoresistivity of two-dimensional extremely strongly correlated metals

There is considerable recent interest in the phenomenon of anisotropic electroresistivity of correlated metals. Although some interesting work has been done on the iron-based superconducting systems, not much is known for the cuprate materials. Here we study the anisotropy of elastoresistivity for cuprates in the normal state. We introduce theoretical results for the effect of strain on resistivity and additionally on the optical weight and local density of states. We use the recently developed extremely strongly correlated Fermi liquid theory in two dimensions, which accounts quantitatively for the unstrained resistivities for three families of single-layer cuprates. The strained hoppings of a tight-binding model are roughly modeled analogously to strained transition metals. The strained resistivity for a two-dimensional t-t'-J model are then obtained, using the equations developed in recent work. Our quantitative predictions for these quantities have the prospect of experimental tests in the near future, for strongly correlated materials such as the hole-doped and electron-doped high-T c materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Laser heating system at the Extreme Conditions Beamline, P02.2, $\mathrm{PETRA III}$

A laser heating system for samples confined in diamond anvil cells paired with in situ X-ray diffraction measurements at the Extreme Conditions Beamline of PETRA III is presented. The system features two independent laser configurations (on-axis and off-axis of the X-ray path) allowing for a broad range of experiments using different designs of diamond anvil cells. The power of the continuous laser source can be modulated for use in various pulsed laser heating or flash heating applications. An example of such an application is illustrated here on the melting curve of iron at megabar pressures. The optical path of the spectroradiometry measurements is simulated with ray-tracing methods in order to assess the level of present aberrations in the system and the results are compared with other systems, that are using simpler lens optics. Based on the ray-tracing the choice of the first achromatic lens and other aspects for accurate temperature measurements are evaluated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Polymer thin films as universal substrates for extreme ultraviolet absorption spectroscopy of molecular transition metal complexes

Polystyrene and polyvinyl chloride thin films are explored as sample supports for extreme ultraviolet (XUV) spectroscopy of molecular transition metal complexes. Thin polymer films prepared by slip-coating are flat and smooth, and transmit much more XUV light than silicon nitride windows. Analytes can be directly cast onto the polymer surface or co-deposited within it. The M-edge XANES spectra (40–90 eV) of eight archetypal transition metal complexes (M = Mn, Fe, Co, Ni) are presented to demonstrate the versatility of this method. The films are suitable for pump/probe transient absorption spectroscopy, as shown by the excited-state spectra of Fe(bpy) 3 2+ in two different polymer supports.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

RISE: Reducing I/O Contention in Staging-based Extreme-Scale In-situ Workflows

While in-situ workflow formulations have addressed some of the data-related challenges associated with extreme-scale scientific workflows, these workflows involve complex interactions and different modes of data exchange. In the context of increasing system complexity, such workflows present significant resource management challenges, requiring complex cost-performance tradeoffs. This paper presents RISE, an intelligent staging-based data management middleware, which builds on the DataSpaces framework and performs intelligent scheduling of data management operations to reduce I/O contention. In RISE, data are always written immediately to local buffers to reduce the effect of the transfer impact upon application performance. RISE identifies applications’ data access patterns and moves data towards data consumers only when the network is expected to be idle, reducing the impact of asynchronous background data movement upon critical data read/write requests. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that RISE can take advantage of staging nodes to offload data during writes without degrading application data movement performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Trust-Region Approximation of Extreme Trajectories in Power System Dynamics

In this work we present a novel technique, based on a trust-region optimization algorithm and second-order trajectory sensitivities, to compute the extreme trajectories of power system dynamic simulations given a bounded set that represents parametric uncertainty. Furthermore, we show how this method, while remaining computationally efficient compared with sampling-based techniques, overcomes the limitations of previous sensitivity-based techniques to approximate the bounds of the trajectories when the local approximation loses validity because of the nonlinearity. We present several numerical experiments that showcase the accuracy and scalability of the technique, including a demonstration on the IEEE New England test system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) Simulation Algorithms for Evaluation of Large-Scale Extreme Fast Charging Systems (T&D Models)

Simulation of high-fidelity models of extreme fast charging (XFC) systems and large-area power grids with many XFCs can be time consuming in traditional simulators. Traditional simulators use a single method of discretization for all the components that results in imposing a large computational burden of inverting a large matrix as well as increased computations related to single method of discretization (that is typically a trapezoidal method). To overcome the problem of simulating large-area power grids with many XFCs, in this paper, advanced numerical simulation algorithms are applied for the first time together to reduce the dimension of matrix inversion. Here, the algorithms include numerical stiffness-based segregation, time constant-based segregation, clustering and aggregation on differential algebraic equations (DAEs), and multi-order integration approaches. These algorithms apply multiple discretization algorithms rather than a single discretization algorithm that further reduces the computational burden. The approaches mentioned here have resulted in speed-up of up to 18x in the simulation of a single distribution system with 15 XFCs and of up to 271x in the simulation of a transmission-distribution system with 300 XFCs in multiple distribution feeders with respect to conventional simulators (like power systems computer aided design [PSCAD]).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-layered Energy Management Framework for Extreme Fast Charging Stations Considering Demand Charges, Battery Degradation, and Forecast Uncertainties

To achieve a cost-effective and expeditious charging experience for extreme fast charging station (XFCS) owners and electric vehicle (EV) users, the optimal operation of XFCS is crucial. It is however challenging to simultaneously manage the profit from energy arbitrage, the cost of demand charges, and the degradation of a battery energy storage system (BESS) under uncertainties. This paper, therefore, proposes a multi-layered multi-time scale energy flow management framework for an XFCS by considering long- and short-term forecast uncertainties, monthly demand charges reduction, and BESS life degradation. In the proposed approach, an upper scheduling layer (USL) ensures the overall operation economy and yields optimal scheduling of the energy resources on a rolling horizon basis, thereby considering the long-term forecast errors. A lower dispatch layer (LDL) takes the short-term forecast errors into account during the real-time operation of the XFCS. Per the latest research, monthly demand charges can be as high as 90% of the total monthly bills for EV fast charging stations; to this end, this paper takes the first attempt at the reduction of demand charges cost by considering the trade-off between the energy cost and monthly demand charges. Contrasting literature, this work allocates an energy reserve in the BESS stored energy to deal with the impact of short-term forecast errors on the optimized real-time operation of the XFCS. Moreover, degradation modeling considers the trade-off between short-term benefits and long-term BESS life degradation. As a result, case studies and a comparative analysis prove the efficacy of the proposed framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design, Control, and Protection of a 13.2 kV, 1 MVA Solid State Transformer for Electric Vehicle Extreme Fast Charging Station

In this article, a medium-voltage (MV) ac-dc solid state transformer (SST) for electric vehicle (EV) extreme fast charging (XFC) station is proposed. The SST adopts a cascaded H-bridge (CHB)-based structure where the active front end (AFE) power stages are connected in input-series followed by dual active bridge (DAB) converters connected in an output-parallel configuration providing galvanic isolation through a high-frequency transformer (HFT). The SST is rated for 1 MVA and connects directly to a three-phase 13.2 kV MV ac grid through ac switchgear and outputs 750-V dc. At the dc bus, several dc/dc converters are connected, each of which can charge an EV based on its battery capacity. A novel decentralized control architecture of the SST is adopted in this work which simplifies the MV dc link voltage and module-level power balancing. In addition, the local and central protection designs of the SST are presented which identify and respond to the internal fault of the system. Finally, the experimental validations of the SST hardware prototype are presented up to the rated voltage. Furthermore, this article details the design and implementation of the MV SST addressing the challenges of an isolated MV class power converter for connecting directly to the MV ac grid with unique controller architecture, distributed protection framework, and SST constructional features.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗