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At least 487 records · Page 27

Evaluation of CMIP6 Streamflow in the Arctic

Earth system models (ESMs) serve as the primary basis for projecting future streamflow changes, but they are biased in terms of the their ability to reproduce historical observations of streamflow. Rigorous downscaling and bias-correction procedures, which are time-consuming and introduce uncertainties, are commonly used to address these biases in streamflow or runoff. However, the applicable limits of streamflow projections remain largely untested through direct comparisons with observations. In this work, we compare historical streamflow time series observations with a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ESMs to assess the space and time scales at which each ESM represents historic streamflow observations. We focus our analysis on streamflow across the Arctic given the higher degree of warming experienced over this region, underscoring its importance for understanding the future changes. A series of metrics—volume, seasonality, extreme capturing streamflow variability, drought, and flooding is tested to assess ESM simulation skill for total events and overall distributions. Our results indicate that although improvements are necessary in ESM runoff and streamflow projections, the use of temporal averaging and targeting the best-fit model for comparison to observations when a suite of ESMs is considered can provide robust streamflow projections. Moreover, this work provides a basis for contextualizing the limits of ESM applicability for studies aiming to assess streamflow in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cape EGS: Frisco Pad Wells Flow Test Microseismic Data

This dataset contains microseismic data acquired during the Frisco pad flow test project led by Fervo Energy, conducted between July 17th - Aug 12th 2024, near the Utah FORGE geothermal site. The microseismic data was collected from various Utah FORGE wells: via Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) fiber in 16B, and two 3-component geophones located in wells 56-32 and 78B. The dataset is structured in SEGY format, where the first six traces represent data from the geophones, and the remaining traces capture DAS data from well 16B. Each SEGY file in this dataset contains triggered microseismic events, with event initiation based on Short-Time Average over Long-Time Average (STA/LTA) detection criteria during the stimulation process. Files are grouped by time intervals and named following the structure "[WellPad][WellName][Month]_[Year]Divine_Trigger[EventNumber].sgy," indicating well pad, well name, date, and event number. Sampling parameters include a spatial sampling of approximately 2 meters for DAS channels and a temporal sampling rate of 2000 Hz, with each data record spanning 1.2 seconds. The files' coordinates are referenced to the location of the FORGE 16A-32 wellhead, positioned at UTM coordinates: Easting 334641.1891 m and Northing 4263443.693 m. The geographic coordinates for this origin are 38.50402147 latitude and -112.8963897 longitude, with an elevation of 1650.0249 meters above sea level.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Cape EGS: Frisco 2-P Well Stimulation Microseismic Data

This dataset contains microseismic data acquired during the Frisco 2-P well stimulation project led by Fervo Energy, conducted between June 1 and June 11, 2024, near the Utah FORGE geothermal site. The microseismic data was collected from various Utah FORGE wells: via Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) fiber in 16B, and three 3-component geophones located in wells 56-32, 78B, and 32. The dataset is structured in SEGY format, where the first nine traces represent data from the geophones, and the remaining traces capture DAS data from well 16B. Each SEGY file in this dataset contains triggered microseismic events, with event initiation based on Short-Time Average over Long-Time Average (STA/LTA) detection criteria during the stimulation process. Files are grouped by time intervals and named following the structure "[WellPad][WellName][Month]_[Year]Divine_Trigger[EventNumber].sgy," indicating well pad, well name, date, and event number. Sampling parameters include a spatial sampling of approximately 2 meters for DAS channels and a temporal sampling rate of 2000 Hz, with each data record spanning 1.2 seconds. The files' coordinates are referenced to the location of the FORGE 16A-32 wellhead, positioned at UTM coordinates: Easting 334641.1891 m and Northing 4263443.693 m. The geographic coordinates for this origin are 38.50402147 latitude and -112.8963897 longitude, with an elevation of 1650.0249 meters above sea level.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

29 th International Training Course on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials and Nuclear Facilities (Project Summary)

Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) has hosted the International Training Course on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials and Nuclear Facilities since 1978. This course is the flagship training course of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). On behalf of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Sandia manages, develops, and coordinates all course materials, and works closely with the IAEA to arrange all logistical details for the course ITC-29 incorporated some updates to the facility models, based on feedback received in ITC-28 and the ITC-29 dry run. In addition, all the graphics were refreshed after ITC-28 and implemented in the posters, data handbooks, etc. As in ITC-28, the ITC-29 staff worked closely with the IAEA on course materials, including a peer review process to ensure all course materials were aligned with Nuclear Security Series No. 13 and other relevant international guidance documentation from the IAEA. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, ITC-29 was postponed twice and eventually took place in the late summer/early fall of 2022. Due to ongoing COVID-19 restrictions and safety requirements, the number of participants was reduced by about 31 percent from 59 participants in ITC-28 to 41 in ITC-29. As a result, the number of subgroups also decreased from eight in ITC-28 to six for ITC-29. This enabled the Sandia team to implement more opportunities for social distancing, particularly in the large classrooms. Despite the challenges, ITC-29 still passed a significant milestone, with the one-thousandth participant of the international training course attending during this event. Finally, the ITC staff continued the use of its improved method of evaluation to capture participants’ satisfaction with the updated course and to gather feedback concerning future improvements. This document provides a brief description of ITC-29, including a summary of lessons learned and key recommendations for future development efforts.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Neutrino Oscillations at the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment located at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab) in Batavia, IL, USA. Its main goal is to extract neutrino oscillation parameters by examining the disappearance of $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and the appearance of $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ at its far detector. The experiment uses the NuMI beamline at Fermilab, which delivers a high-purity neutrino and antineutrino beam. NOvA consists of two functionally similar, high-resolution liquid scintillator tracking calorimeters, both placed 14.6 milliradians off the beam axis. The near detector, positioned 100 m underground and 1 km from the beam's origin, captures unoscillated $\nu_\mu (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and instrinsic beam $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ events. The far detector, located 810 km away from the beam source in Ash River, Minnesota, measures both unoscillated $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and those that have oscillated into $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu) \to \nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$. This poster will cover the latest results on three-flavor neutrino oscillation parameters, derived from an exposure of neutrino beam of $26.60 \times 10^{20}$ POT and anti-neutrino beam exposure of $12.50\times 10^{20}$ POT including an additional low energy $\nu_e$ sample.

Singh, Ishwar [Delhi U.]↗

Continuing Analysis of Charge Current Interactions in ANNIE

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is a gadolinium-loaded water Cherenkov detector on the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB).Using νμ in the energy range of 500 to 1000 MeV, ANNIE is designed to measure final-state neutrons.In this poster we will cover the ongoing analysis work exploring Charged-Current neutrino interactions. Charged-Current (CC) νμ interactions in this regime have uncertainties in the relative contributions of quasielastic and res- onance production. Together with intranuclear final-state interactions (FSI) and missing hadronic energy, these interactions drive important biases in neutrino energy reconstruction. ANNIE mit- igates these effects by combining muon kinematics from the downstream Muon Range Detector (MRD) with neutron identification via delayed gamma cascades from thermal captures on gadolin- ium. We characterize CC0π and Δ samples by measuring neutron multiplicity versus event topology and reconstructed kinematics, comparing neutron-tagged data to interaction-model predictions to probe resonance production and pion FSI/absorption

Fleming, Dylon [UC, Davis; Fermilab] (ORCID:000000↗

Calculations of the displacement damage and short-circuit current degradation in proton irradiated (AlGa)As-GaAs solar cells

A theoretical model for computing the displacement damage defect density and the short-circuit current (I sub sc) degradation in proton-irradiated (AlGa)As-GaAs p-n junction solar cells is presented. Assumptions were made with justification that the radiation induced displacement defects form an effective recombination center which controls the electron and hole lifetimes in the junction space charge region and in the n-GaAs active layer of the irradiated GaAs p-n junction cells. The degradation of I sub sc in the (AlGa)As layer was found to be negligible compared to the total degradation. In order to determine the I sub sc degradation, the displacement defect density, path length, range, reduced energy after penetrating a distance x, and the average number of displacements formed by one proton scattering event were first calculated. The I sub sc degradation was calculated by using the electron capture cross section in the p-diffused layer and the hole capture cross section in the n-base layer as well as the wavelength dependent absorption coefficients. Excellent agreement was found between the researchers calculated values and the measured I sub sc in the proton irradiated GaAs solar cells for proton energies of 100 KeV to 10 MeV and fluences from 10 to the 10th power p/square cm to 10 to the 12th power p/square cm.

Yeh, C. S.↗

Electrochemistry-based Battery Modeling for Prognostics

Batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. In recent years, they have become popular as a source of power for electric vehicles such as cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and commericial passenger aircraft. In such application domains, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. To implement such technologies, it is crucial to understand how batteries work and to capture that knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis algorithms. In this work, we develop electrochemistry-based models of lithium-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles. This paper reports on the progress of such a model, with results demonstrating the model validity and accurate EOD predictions.

battery↗

CALIPSO Level 3 Stratospheric Aerosol Product: Version 1.00 Algorithm Description and Initial Assessment

In August 2018,the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) project released a new level 3 stratospheric aerosol profile data product derived from nearly 12 years of measurements acquired by the space-borne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP).This monthly averaged, gridded level 3 product is based on version 4.2 of the CALIOP level 1 and level 2 data products, which feature significantly improved calibration that now makes it possible to reliably retrieve profiles of stratospheric aerosol extinction and backscatter coefficients. This paper describes the science algorithm and data handling techniques that were developed to generate the CALIPSO version 1.00 level 3 stratospheric aerosol profile product. Further, we show that the retrieved extinction profiles capture the major stratospheric perturbations over the last decade resulting from volcanic eruptions, extreme smoke events, and signatures of stratospheric dynamics. Initial assessment of the product by inter-comparison with the stratospheric aerosol retrievals from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) on the International Space Station (ISS) indicates good agreement in the tropical stratospheric aerosol layer (30oN-30oS),where the average difference between zonal mean extinction profiles is typically less than 25% between 20km and 30km. However, differences can exceed 100% in the very low aerosol loading regimes found above 25 km at higher latitudes.

Jayanta Kar↗

The Complexity of the Day-Side X-Line During Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field

High-resolution global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations include both meso- and global-scale processes occurring at the magnetopause, which interact to determine the time-dependent orientation of the day-side x-line (DXL). This study demonstrates that the global orientation of the DXL in GAMERA global MHD simulations varies on a time scale of minutes during steady southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions. This behavior manifests in observational data when reconnection outflows indicate that the direction to the x-line is opposite to the prediction from a steady-state model of the reconnection location. Because steady-state models of the DXL do not capture dynamics that are independent of solar wind variations, particularly surface waves and flux transfer events, they represent a time-averaged state of the system.

Brandon Burkholder↗

High-Frequency Signature-Based Fault Detection for Future MV Distribution Grids: Preprint

Increased deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and microgrids are significantly changing the operation of distribution grid. Increasing penetration of power electronics based DERs also raise several operational problems such as protection coordination issues, voltage raise, recloser synchronization, stability, and frequency control. Legacy systems are designed for unidirectional power flow. Bidirectional power flows, and varying short circuit levels are some of the major challenges in implementing these legacy protection schemes for future power grid with high penetration of power electronics based DERs. Inverter based DER’s can contribute to a maximum of 2 p.u. fault current. Interconnection standards might require even lower fault current contribution. If these protection related challenges are not addressed, it will result in limiting the penetration of DERs in distribution feeders. In this paper, the feasibility of high frequency signature generated by transients is evaluated to identify and locate faults in a distribution system. The paper will discuss the need for an accurate line modeling approach to accurately capture the high frequency signatures. These high frequency signatures are naturally occurring electromagnetic transients for events such as switching events in the network, faults events, etc. This is different than that implemented in transmission systems as the proposed approach utilizes advanced signal processing techniques to retrieve valuable information from the high frequency signatures generated during faults and does not just rely on time delay measurements between reflections of the high frequency signals. In the full paper, information of a modified IEEE distribution feeder test system to accurately model the high frequency signatures will be provided. The distribution lines will be modeled using universal line modeling (ULM) technique in an electromagnetic transients program (EMTP) modeling platform. Different test cases will be simulated and these test cases will include different fault types, multiple fault locations, capacitor bank switching, etc. The feeder system modeled for these simulations will also include power electronics based DERs. Additionally, experimental results demonstrating the high frequency signatures generated due to a transient event in a medium voltage (13.8 kV) distribution line will also be presented in the full paper. Furthermore, the analysis combined with simulation and experimental results in the full paper will help demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed protection scheme. The developed protection scheme will not just help solve problems generated by bidirectional current flow, varying short-circuit current capacity, but also help in proliferation of DERs in distribution systems.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Exploiting Isospin Symmetry to Study the Role of Isomers in Stellar Environments

Proton capture on the excited isomeric state of 26 Al strongly influences the abundance of 26 Mg ejected in explosive astronomical events and, as such, plays a critical role in determining the initial content of radiogenic 26 Al in presolar grains. This reaction also affects the temperature range for thermal equilibrium between the ground and isomeric levels. We present a novel technique, that exploits the isospin symmetry of the nuclear force, to address the long-standing challenge of determining proton-capture rates on excited nuclear levels. Such a technique has in-built tests that strongly support its veracity and, for the first time, we have experimentally constrained the strengths of resonances that dominate the astrophysical 26m Al(p, γ) 27 Si reaction. Furthermore, these constraints demonstrate that the rate is at least a factor ~ 8 lower than previously expected, indicating an increase in the stellar production of 26 Mg and a possible need to reinvestigate sensitivity studies involving the thermal equilibration of 26 Al.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina: the Role of Altimetry in ENSO Studies and Prediction

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be a quasi-periodic coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring roughly every 3-7 years. Its largest oceanic manifestations are found in the equatorial Pacific, but it is of global climatic significance. During the flight of the TOPEX]Poseidon altimeter, the equatorial Pacific was in the midst of an unusual period of prolonged ENSO warming in the mid-1990's. In 1997, the tropical Pacific witnessed the development of a major El Nino event, rivaling in strength the 1982-83 El Nino. The intensity of this El Nino, and its rapid intensification early in the calendar year, caught the scientific community by surprise. None of the forecast models, statistical or dynamical, captured these features of the 1997 El Nino, although those models that assimilated in situ ocean observations did better than most in predicting that the event would occur in 1997. The onset of the El Nino coincided with the occurrence of several westerly wind events in the western Pacific rather than to delayed oscillator physics. However, western Pacific sea levels were anomalously elevated a year and a half prior to the onset, which may have helped precondition the system to a particularly strong ENSO episode. The coming of La Nina was foreshadowed by large-scale drops in sea level in the western tropical Pacific and cyclonic wind stress curl anomalies far beyond the +\- 8 degrees latitude bounds of the TAO mooring array. In past El Nino events, the evolution of the coupled system could only be studied from the perspective of in situ observations. The 1997-1998 El Nino event will be the first time a major El Nino event will have been observed from start to finish via remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface topography, sea surface temperature, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. These observations have considerable potential for advancing coupled climate forecasts on time scales from seasons to decades. This presentation will address questions along the lines of: (1) What are the scientific problems in ENSO that can benefit most from altimetry data? (2) Are there any precursors in the global ocean-atmosphere system for the 1997-98 extreme event? (3) Is there a unique role of altimetry in detecting potential precursors?(4) Has Topex/Poseidon data been adequately used to improve ENSO forecasts? Is there any firm evidence? (6) What is the status of the transition of El Nino into a La Nina?

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗

Informing Wildfire Needs: The Expanded User Interface of NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (Firms)

As the global community continues to experience, and respond to, living in a changing environment, access to tools, technologies, and timely data utilized by an increasingly diverse set of stakeholders is increasing. This year, 2023, has thus far seen an unprecedented number of extreme events, increasingly driven by changes in the climate and a strong 2023 ENSO pattern. In Canada, a record number of wildfires, and associated weather events, evacuations, and infrastructure and habitat destruction has taken place, and is ongoing. Large swaths of Greece have experienced similar wildfire destruction. Most recently, Maui has experienced destructive wildfires, and early 2023 saw massive wildfires in Chile. NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System, or FIRMS, has a fifteen-year history of providing timely and comprehensive data and information on wildfires to stakeholders. FIRMS was initially developed in 2007 by the University of Maryland, with funds from NASA's Applied Sciences Program and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UN FAO), to provide near real-time active fire Locations to natural resource managers that faced challenges obtaining timely satellite-derived fire information. FIRMS has consistently evolved to address the needs of stakeholders Living in a changing environment; in 2012 it transitioned to NASA LANCE and in 2021 through a partnership between NASA and the US Forest Service, an updated version of FIRMS was released for the US and Canada. As NASA and other federal agencies continue to accelerate Open Science through integrated efforts such as the Year of Open Science, the provision of readily discoverable, findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable data represents a major focus to facilitate equitable outcomes. FIRMS supports this acceleration in Open Science by continuing to provision data and information for its traditional user base, while addressing the novel user needs of an increasingly diverse set of stakeholders seeking robust, reliable, transparently generated data and information. Increasingly, FIRMS is utilized by citizen scientists and individuals directly affected by wildfires - through evacuations, risks to structures/homes, poor air quality. etc. FIRMS has also been Leveraged to detect and assess the impacts resulting from ongoing conflicts. This further highlights the multi-faceted impacts of wildfires and other events. In the Fall of 2023, FIRMS will release an expanded User Interface (UI). This interface captures and reflects the needs of, and input from, a multitude of users. These users range from federal agency representatives to non-government organizations to the private sector to citizen science entities. To respond to this expansive and diverse user need base, the updated FIRMS UI will capture a range of features to support those beginning to explore the range of data and tools available to inform wildfire awareness and knowledge. These users are supported through a Basic Mode interface, furnishing access to a light set of functionalities that provision straight-forward, readily usable information and data, and ingestible knowledge. The Advanced Mode interface supports those stakeholder groups already proficient in navigating FIRMS. These stakeholders, representing fire managers and others, perform active fire management and tactical wildfire response activities. For these stakeholders, additional datasets have been included which require in-depth knowledge of both the utility as well as the caveats of such datasets. Additional functionalities have also been embedded to aid specific user queries. The expanded UI will introduce a new Experimental Mode. The focus of this UI will be to support the provision of emerging and innovative datasets that are in development for review and comment by the user community Examples include post-fire products generated by NASA's Earth Information System (EIS) Fire. This presentation will provide an overview of the expanded FIRMS UI. We will discuss how this UI is designed to be scalable and support the unique needs of an expanding and diverse user base. We will highlight key features, elements, and datasets, and describe how user needs have informed and guided the design of the UI. We will also share recent use cases to convey, and increase awareness, among conference participants. As the global community faces more extreme wildfires, due to climate variability and change, there is an increased need for reliable data to inform, manage, and mitigate the impacts of these events. Through this work, NASA FIRMS is striving to level the playing field, by making information accessible to all; from policy makers to the private sector to historically marginalized communities. In doing so, NASA is promoting the all-hands-on-deck response needed to minimize the impacts of wildfires and harness the strengths of open science to address the greatest environmental challenge faced.

Jenny Hewson↗

Results of the 2018 Wood Stove Design Challenge

The 2018 Wood Stove Design Challenge was an international design competition which sought to identify top performing residential wood stoves based on automation. To prepare for the event, the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) developed a testing protocol that challenged the stoves by testing them in more field-like conditions—capturing emissions from start-up, reloading a stove, and the use of larger piece sizes. Flue gas emissions were measured using a combination of in-stack and novel dilution sampling methods, as the event occurred on the National Mall in Washington D.C. in a non-laboratory setting. Particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane (CH4) were measured from three stoves in real-time. A combustion efficiency was also calculated for each stove in real-time. Measured PM emission rates ranged between 1.8 and 8.0 g/hr for all stoves and operating conditions, with the highest emissions being measured during cold start in all cases. The test average PM emission rates were 2.4, 4.0, and 2.4 g/hr for stoves A, B, and C, respectively. Results showed emissions measured during transient operations, which are often excluded in current certification methods, can be significantly higher than steady-state periods—echoing other studies and highlighting the importance of testing in various operational modes for more realistic emission estimates. Additionally, the stoves had overall CO emission rates of 48.8, 284.8, and 100.8 g/hr, for stoves A, B and C, respectively. Calculated PM and CO emission factors overall were low considering the testing protocol sought to follow more challenging yet realistic practices in terms of fuel loading and operating procedures. The overall estimated combustion efficiency for stoves A, B, and C was 85%, 78%, 76%, respectively and in all cases was lowest during the cold start period.This report details the successfully proposed and assembled instrumentation that was relatively portable for field-site testing and the results of the emissions measurements for the 2018 Wood Stove Design Challenge competition. Overall, the repeatability of each stove was favorable with coefficients of variation (COV) ranging from 7 to 15% for measured PM concentrations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dawn Safing Approach to Ceres Re-Design

In mid-2014 the Dawn team finalized preparations for the spacecraft’s approach to Ceres. The design was the product of careful planning that began several years in advance, when the spacecraft left Vesta in September 2012. However, a few months prior to the anticipated start of approach, the spacecraft entered a safe mode. While temporary loss of thrust for ion propulsion missions is usually not mission-critical, it still presents many challenges. The safing event occurred at a time when thrusting to match Ceres’ orbital velocity was most effective, which meant the spacecraft must fly past Ceres before capturing into orbit. The new approach geometry changed the team’s strategy for navigating the spacecraft safely into orbit around Ceres with optical data. In this paper we describe the challenges of navigating the Dawn spacecraft into orbit around Ceres, including the safing event and re-design of the approach architecture.

Grebow, Daniel J.↗

Dawn Safing Approach to Ceres Re-Design

In mid-2014 the Dawn team finalized preparations for the spacecraft’s approach to Ceres. The design was the product of careful planning that began several years in advance, when the spacecraft left Vesta in September 2012. However, a few months prior to the anticipated start of approach, the spacecraft entered a safe mode. While temporary loss of thrust for ion propulsion missions is usually not mission-critical, it still presents many challenges. The safing event occurred at a time when thrusting to match Ceres’ orbital velocity was most effective, which meant the spacecraft must fly past Ceres before capturing into orbit. The new approach geometry changed the team’s strategy for navigating the spacecraft safely into orbit around Ceres with optical data. In this paper we describe the challenges of navigating the Dawn spacecraft into orbit around Ceres, including the safing event and re-design of the approach architecture.

Grebow, Dan↗

Global mean frequency increases of daily and sub-daily heavy precipitation in ERA5

Abstract Changes in heavy precipitation frequency can be viewed as a change in the event return period, a common metric of risk. Compared with intensity, frequency changes are less well-studied and past work has largely been constrained to analysis of well-instrumented regions. We exploit the latest ERA5 reanalysis and its global hourly accumulations at 1/4° spatial resolution and apply a metric that captures frequency changes across both wet and dry regions. According to ERA5 and in a global average sense, during 1989–2018, hourly events that occurred once per year in 1979–1988 increased in frequency by 71 (53–93, 95% range) %, while the one day per year heavy event frequency increased by 44 (37–54) %. Thus, hourly events that occurred once per year in the baseline decade are on track to double in frequency by 2021–2030, and the daily events by 2047–2056. Furthermore, our results replicate prior findings that relative frequency increases are larger for increasingly rare events, and for the first time we quantify that mean frequency increases have been greater over ocean than land. Ocean increases are larger by factors of 3.0 and 2.1 for the hourly and daily events that occurred once per year in 1979–1988, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗