Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Economic Model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27

Techno-economic analysis of carbon dioxide capture from low concentration sources using membranes

Rising carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels in the atmosphere lead to global warming, causing climate change. As such, carbon capture has become necessary to slow the increase and reduce CO 2 levels in the atmosphere. Point source emissions have a wide range of CO 2 concentrations, but emissions below 3% CO 2 have mostly been ignored because Carbon capture from these sources has been viewed as costly and economically unsustainable. Membrane technologies are considered the most viable solution by virtue of more energy-efficient operation. Our group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed poly[bis((2-methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP)-based carbon dioxide selective membranes with CO 2 /N 2 selectivity greater than 40 and CO 2 permeability greater than 450 Barrer. To understand the economics of carbon capture, a spreadsheet-based techno-economic analysis (TEA) model was developed to consider multiple parameters, including selectivity and permeability of the membranes, performance conditions such as the number of stages, module material, electricity price, membrane price, and capital financing. The cost of carbon capture in US $\$$/metric ton was calculated at various purities and compared with other membrane processes, cryogenic capture, solvent-based capture, and pressure swing adsorption-based capture. It was determined that a MEEP-based three-stage process had a capture cost of US $\$$ 50.1/metric ton for 99.8% purity CO 2 from a 1% CO 2 feed source in nitrogen (N 2 ). In conclusion, the capture cost using the best performing Pebax-based membrane was 464% higher, cryogenic capture was 60%–140% higher, pressure swing adsorption was 55%–165% higher, and chemical absorption was -10%–110% higher than MEEP-based membrane capture, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The need to consider regional supply chains and water usage in H 2 –steel transition

The iron and steel industry is one of the largest contributors to U.S. and global greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen can act as a promising reducing agent and clean energy carrier to decarbonize this sector, and has received significant attention in terms of process modelling, techno-economic analysis, and life cycle assessment in recent years. Policy incentives, hydrogen storage and transportation, and water stress levels are key factors that require significantly more consideration in order to realize hydrogen’s potential to decarbonize this industry. This review demonstrates the need for a systematic understanding and critical assessment of these areas, and their profound impacts on the decarbonization of the iron and steel sector. Furthermore, hydrogen and water supply face competition from other hard-to-decarbonize sectors, which should be considered on national and regional levels. Lastly, future research should also consider the impact of other environmental factors and hydrogen leak when deploying hydrogen at scale for industrial decarbonization.

Green steel↗

Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems

Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Techno-economic assessment of emerging CO 2 electrolysis technologies

Recycling of waste CO 2 to bulk chemicals has a tremendous potential for the decarbonization of the chemical industry. Quantitative analysis of the prospects of this technology is hindered by the lack of flexible techno-economic assessment (TEA) models that enable evaluation of the processing costs under different deployment scenarios. In this protocol, we explain how to convert literature data into metrics useful for evaluation of the emerging electrolysis technologies, derive TEA models, and illustrate their use with a CO 2 -to-ethylene example. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Barecka et al. (2021a).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Upcycling waste polystyrene to adipic acid through a hybrid chemical and biological process

Oxidative catalytic depolymerization of polystyrene (PS) can produce benzoic acid, but the annual consumption of benzoic acid is ~40 times lower than PS. For this catalytic oxidation method to be a viable means to manage PS waste, benzoic acid should be converted to higher-volume chemicals. We demonstrate a hybrid chemical and biological process that uses PS as feedstock for production of adipic acid, a high-volume co-monomer for nylon 6,6 via benzoic acid. Mn/Br co-catalyzed autoxidation of PS to benzoic acid proceeds with a yield of up to 94% in a solvent mixture of benzoic acid and water. The PS-derived benzoic acid undergoes bioconversion at near-quantitative yield to muconic acid, which is readily converted to adipic acid through catalytic hydrogenation. Process modeling, techno-economic analysis, and life cycle assessment estimate an adipic acid minimum selling price of $3.18/kg, with a 61% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions relative to production from fossil fuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Quantifying the Relationship Between Higher Photovoltaic Module Efficiency and the Adoption of Distributed Solar

The purpose of this study is understanding the relationship between module efficiency, system costs, and the economic and adoption potential of distributed rooftop solar. We use the dGen model to project the economic potential and adoption of high-efficiency photovoltaic (PV) modules across a range of efficiencies and cost scenarios in the continental United States. Our results reveal that high-efficiency modules can modestly increase the projected adoption of distributed solar, but system capital costs may play a larger role in changing the amount of projected adoption.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Salton Sea Geothermal Development: Nontechnical Barriers to Entry – Analysis and Perspectives

Geothermal energy offers an opportunity to generate baseload, renewable energy that can help support the transition to an energy economy with reduced impacts on climate change and replace older, more expensive, nonrenewable, and more resource-impacting energy-generation facilities. The United States has the largest known geothermal resource in the world, with over 31 GW of conventional geothermal potential. However, due to market conditions, an inability to properly quantify both electrical grid benefits and resource stability, and the difficulty of exploring and developing the geothermal resource, few new geothermal projects have come online over the past three decades. The Salton Sea, in Imperial County, California, provides a prime location and opportunity to develop new geothermal resources. The Salton Sea contains a robust, well-mapped, geothermal resource, with opportunities for concurrent development of lithium and other mineral resources. This report describes the history of geothermal development at the Salton Sea and compares geothermal to other renewable energy sources in the area. The report then uses a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model to analyze the relative benefits and costs of various challenges and opportunities and provides recommendations for streamlining geothermal development at the Salton Sea and elsewhere. The challenges and opportunities analyzed in the TEA model were informed by stakeholder interviews and literature reviews. Based upon the identified challenges and opportunities and the results of the TEA model, primary findings are that certain nontechnical barriers such as permitting costs play only a minor role in determining the viability of development of the geothermal resource at the Salton Sea. Other barriers such as permitting timelines, government/agency coordination, and the potential co-location of lithium extraction with a geothermal plant may result in much larger impacts on project viability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Sustainable Ethylene via Chemical Looping – Oxidative Dehydrogenation

This Phase I final report evaluates chemical looping–oxidative dehydrogenation as a lower-energy and cost-competitive alternative to conventional ethane steam cracking for ethylene production. The project combined catalyst development and experimental testing with process modeling, techno-economic analysis, and life-cycle assessment. Results indicate that the proposed process could improve olefin production, reduce energy use, and lower production costs, particularly when integrated with carbon capture and renewable electricity. The report also identifies remaining technical, environmental, and safety considerations and presents a technology maturation plan focused on longer-term catalyst evaluation and advancement toward pilot-scale demonstration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Yield and Survival of 19 Cultivars of Willow (Salix spp.) Biomass Crops over Eight Rotations

This study reveals patterns of yield and survival of short-rotation coppice (SRC) willow cultivars over eight rotations (1993–2019). Cultivars fell into four broad categories: commercial, released, stable, and decline. SV1, the singular cultivar that advanced to commercial deployments, had first-rotation yields of 8.9 Mg ha−1 a−1, peaking at 15.2 Mg ha−1 a−1 by the fourth. Mean yields from rotations 2–8 were still 36% above first-rotation yields, confirming the commercial potential for this cultivar over 26 years. The released group (four cultivars) had stable yields over six rotations (approximately 3 to 7 Mg ha−1 a−1), rising to match commercial yields (10 Mg ha−1 a−1) between the sixth and eighth rotation. Most of the cultivars were in the stable group that had relatively consistent yields over time. First-rotation yields in this group were approximately 5 Mg ha−1 a−1, and average yield increased by 23% for rotations 2–8. The two cultivars in the decline group were impacted by disease and browsing that lowered survival and growth. These findings are crucial for understanding willow systems’ potential over their full lifespan as a bioenergy crop, which is a crucial input into yield, economic, and environmental models.

Santucci, Shane↗

Connective stability of competitive equilibrium

The purpose of this paper is to derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the connective stability of nonlinear matrix systems described by the equation x-dot = A(t, x) x, where the matrix A(t, x) has time-varying nonlinear elements. The results obtained can be used to study the stability of competitive equilibrium in fields as diverse as economics and engineering, model ecosystems, and the arms race.-

Siljak, D. D.↗

Review of design and operational characteristics of the 0.3-meter transonic cryogenic tunnel

The past 6 years of operation with the NASA Langley 0.3 m transonic cryogenic tunnel (TCT) show that there are no insurmountable problems associated with cryogenic testing with gaseous nitrogen at transonic Mach numbers. The fundamentals of the concept were validated both analytically and experimentally and the 0.3 m TCT, with its unique Reynolds number capability, was used for a wide variety of aerodynamic tests. Techniques regarding real-gas effects were developed and cryogenic tunnel conditions can be set and maintained accurately. Cryogenic cooling by injecting liquid nitrogen directly into the tunnel circuit imposes no problems with temperature distribution or dynamic response characteristics. Experience with the 0.3 m TCT, indicates that there is a significant learning process associated with cryogenic, high Reynolds number testing. Many of the questions have already been answered; however, factors such as tunnel control, run logic, economics, instrumentation, and model technology present many new and challenging problems.

Ray, E. J.↗

Maypole (Hoop/Column) concept development program

The program is divided into six tasks: preliminary design and performance; materials development; advanced concepts; economic assessment; demonstration/verification models; and a 15 meter engineering model. All support the main objective of the program which is the technology development necessary to evaluate, design, manufacture, package, transport and deploy the Hoop/Column reflector by means of a ground-based test program. Progress for each task is reported.

Sullivan, M. R.↗

Compromise - An effective approach for conceptual aircraft design

The Decision Support Problem (DSP) technique for aircraft design is presently demonstrated through the development of a compromise DSP template for the conceptual design of subsonic transport aircraft. System variables are wing span and area, fuselage diameter and length, takeoff weight, and installed thrust. Such system constraints as range and wing loading are represented algebraically using standard subsonic aircraft theory, and economic efficiency is modeled in terms of rates-of-return. The DSP template thus obtained has been tested and validated using the known mission requirements and design constants of the B 727-200 airliner.

Mistree, Farrokh↗

Using emergent order to shape a space society

A fast-growing movement in the scientific community is reshaping the way that we view the world around us. The short-hand name for this movement is 'chaos'. Chaos is a science of the global, nonlinear nature of systems. The center of this set of ideas is that simple, deterministic systems can breed complexity. Systems as complex as the human body, ecology, the mind or a human society. While it is true that simple laws can breed complexity, the other side is that complex systems can breed order. It is the latter that I will focus on in this paper. In the past, nonlinear was nearly synonymous with unsolvable because no general analytic solutions exist. Mathematically, an essential difference exists between linear and nonlinear systems. For linear systems, you just break up the complicated system into many simple pieces and patch together the separated solutions for each piece to form a solution to the full problem. In contrast, solutions to a nonlinear system cannot be added to form a new solution. The system must be treated in its full complexity. While it is true that no general analytical approach exists for reducing a complex system such as a society, it can be modeled. The technical involves a mathematical construct called phase space. In this space stable structures can appear which I use as analogies for the stable structures that appear in a complex system such as an ecology, the mind or a society. The common denominator in all of these systems is that they rely on a process called feedback loops. Feedback loops link the microscopic (individual) parts to the macroscopic (global) parts. The key, then, in shaping a space society, is in effectively using feedback loops. This paper will illustrate how one can model a space society by using methods that chaoticists have developed over the last hundred years. And I will show that common threads exist in the modeling of biological, economical, philosophical, and sociological systems.

Graps, Amara L.↗

Improving Simulated Annealing by Replacing Its Variables with Game-Theoretic Utility Maximizers

The game-theory field of Collective INtelligence (COIN) concerns the design of computer-based players engaged in a non-cooperative game so that as those players pursue their self-interests, a pre-specified global goal for the collective computational system is achieved as a side-effect. Previous implementations of COIN algorithms have outperformed conventional techniques by up to several orders of magnitude, on domains ranging from telecommunications control to optimization in congestion problems. Recent mathematical developments have revealed that these previously developed algorithms were based on only two of the three factors determining performance. Consideration of only the third factor would instead lead to conventional optimization techniques like simulated annealing that have little to do with non-cooperative games. In this paper we present an algorithm based on all three terms at once. This algorithm can be viewed as a way to modify simulated annealing by recasting it as a non-cooperative game, with each variable replaced by a player. This recasting allows us to leverage the intelligent behavior of the individual players to substantially improve the exploration step of the simulated annealing. Experiments are presented demonstrating that this recasting significantly improves simulated annealing for a model of an economic process run over an underlying small-worlds topology. Furthermore, these experiments reveal novel small-worlds phenomena, and highlight the shortcomings of conventional mechanism design in bounded rationality domains.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Improving Search Algorithms by Using Intelligent Coordinates

We consider algorithms that maximize a global function G in a distributed manner, using a different adaptive computational agent to set each variable of the underlying space. Each agent eta is self-interested; it sets its variable to maximize its own function g (sub eta). Three factors govern such a distributed algorithm's performance, related to exploration/exploitation, game theory, and machine learning. We demonstrate how to exploit alI three factors by modifying a search algorithm's exploration stage: rather than random exploration, each coordinate of the search space is now controlled by a separate machine-learning-based player engaged in a noncooperative game. Experiments demonstrate that this modification improves simulated annealing (SA) by up to an order of magnitude for bin packing and for a model of an economic process run over an underlying network. These experiments also reveal interesting small-world phenomena.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Economic Analysis on the Space Transportation Architecture Study (STAS) NASA Team

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) performed the Space Transportation Architecture Study (STAS) to provide information to support end-of-the-decade decisions on possible near-term US Government (USG) investments in space transportation. To gain a clearer understanding of the costs and benefits of the broadest range of possible space transportation options, six teams, five from aerospace industry companies and one internal to NASA, were tasked to answer three primary questions: a) If the Space Shuttle system should be replaced; b) If so, when the replacement should take place and how the transition should be implemented; and c) If not, what is the upgrade strategy to continue safe and affordable flight of the Space Shuttle beyond 2010. The overall goal of the Study was "to develop investment options to be considered by the Administration for the President's FY2001 budget to meet NASA's future human space flight requirements with significant reductions in costs." This emphasis on government investment, coupled with the participation by commercial f'trms, required an unprecedented level of economic analysis of costs and benefits from both industry and government viewpoints. This paper will discuss the economic and market models developed by the in-house NASA Team to analyze space transportation architectures, the results of those analyses, and how those results were reflected in the conclusions and recommendations of the STAS NASA Team. Copyright 1999 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. No copyright is asserted in the United States under Title 17, U.$. Code. The U.S. Government has a royalty-free license to exercise all rights under the copyright claimed herein for Governmental purposes. All other rights are reserved by the copyright owner.

Shaw, Eric J.↗

Towards PCC for Concurrent and Distributed Systems (Work in Progress)

We outline some conceptual challenges in extending the PCC paradigm to a concurrent and distributed setting, and sketch a generalized notion of module correctness based on viewing communication contracts as economic games. The model supports compositional reasoning about modular systems and is meant to apply not only to certification of executable code, but also of organizational workflows.

Henriksen, Anders S.↗