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DOE OSTI2024

Integrating NDVI-Based Within-Wetland Vegetation Classification in a Land Surface Model Improves Methane Emission Estimations

Earth system models (ESMs) are a common tool for estimating local and global greenhouse gas emissions under current and projected future conditions. Efforts are underway to expand the representation of wetlands in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) by resolving the simultaneous contributions to greenhouse gas fluxes from multiple, different, sub-grid-scale patch-types, representing different eco-hydrological patches within a wetland. However, for this effort to be effective, it should be coupled with the detection and mapping of within-wetland eco-hydrological patches in real-world wetlands, providing models with corresponding information about vegetation cover. In this short communication, we describe the application of a recently developed NDVI-based method for within-wetland vegetation classification on a coastal wetland in Louisiana and the use of the resulting yearly vegetation cover as input for ELM simulations. Processed Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) datasets were used to drive the sub-grid composition of simulated wetland vegetation each year, thus tracking the spatial heterogeneity of wetlands at sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions and providing necessary input for improving the estimation of methane emissions from wetlands. Our results show that including NDVI-based classification in an ELM reduced the uncertainty in predicted methane flux by decreasing the model’s RMSE when compared to Eddy Covariance measurements, while a minimal bias was introduced due to the resampling technique involved in processing HLS data. Our study shows promising results in integrating the remote sensing-based classification of within-wetland vegetation cover into earth system models, while improving their performances toward more accurate predictions of important greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Foliar functional traits from imaging spectroscopy across biomes in eastern North America

Summary Foliar functional traits are widely used to characterize leaf and canopy properties that drive ecosystem processes and to infer physiological processes in Earth system models. Imaging spectroscopy provides great potential to map foliar traits to characterize continuous functional variation and diversity, but few studies have demonstrated consistent methods for mapping multiple traits across biomes. With airborne imaging spectroscopy data and field data from 19 sites, we developed trait models using partial least squares regression, and mapped 26 foliar traits in seven NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) ecoregions (domains) including temperate and subtropical forests and grasslands of eastern North America. Model validation accuracy varied among traits (normalized root mean squared error, 9.1–19.4%; coefficient of determination, 0.28–0.82), with phenolic concentration, leaf mass per area and equivalent water thickness performing best across domains. Across all trait maps, 90% of vegetated pixels had reasonable values for one trait, and 28–81% provided high confidence for multiple traits concurrently. Maps of 26 traits and their uncertainties for eastern US NEON sites are available for download, and are being expanded to the western United States and tundra/boreal zone. These data enable better understanding of trait variations and relationships over large areas, calibration of ecosystem models, and assessment of continental‐scale functional diversity.

Wang, Zhihui↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global 1 km land surface parameters for kilometer-scale Earth system modeling

Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (“k-scale”). However, the surface parameters for land surface models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse-resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, utilizing the latest and most accurate available datasets. Specifically, the datasets consist of parameters related to land use and land cover, vegetation, soil, and topography. Differences between the newly developed 1 km land surface parameters and conventional parameters emphasize their potential for higher accuracy due to the incorporation of the most advanced and latest data sources. To demonstrate the capability of these new parameters, we conducted 1 km resolution simulations using the E3SM Land Model version 2 (ELM2) over the contiguous United States. Our results demonstrate that land surface parameters contribute to significant spatial heterogeneity in ELM2 simulations of soil moisture, latent heat, emitted longwave radiation, and absorbed shortwave radiation. On average, about 31 % to 54 % of spatial information is lost by upscaling the 1 km ELM2 simulations to a 12 km resolution. Using eXplainable Machine Learning (XML) methods, the influential factors driving the spatial variability and spatial information loss of ELM2 simulations were identified, highlighting the substantial impact of the spatial variability and information loss of various land surface parameters, as well as the mean climate conditions. The comparison against four benchmark datasets indicates that ELM generally performs well in simulating soil moisture and surface energy fluxes. The new land surface parameters are tailored to meet the emerging needs of k-scale LSM and ESM modeling with significant implications for advancing our understanding of water, carbon, and energy cycles under global change. The 1 km land surface parameters are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10815170 (Li et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The E3SM version 1 single-column model

Abstract. The single-column model (SCM) functionality of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is described in this paper. The E3SM SCM was adopted from the SCM used in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) but has evolved significantly since then. We describe changes made to the aerosol specification in the SCM, idealizations, and developments made so that the SCM uses the same dynamical core as the full general circulation model (GCM) component. Based on these changes, we describe and demonstrate the seamless capability to “replay” a GCM column using the SCM. We give an overview of the E3SM case library and briefly describe which cases may serve as useful proxies for replicating and investigate some long-standing biases in the full GCM runs while demonstrating that the E3SM SCM is an efficient tool for both model development and evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spin-orbit exciton in a honeycomb lattice magnet CoTiO 3 : Revealing a link between magnetism in d - and f -electron systems

We carried out inelastic neutron scattering to study the spin-orbital (SO) exciton in a single crystal sample of CoTiO 3 as a function of temperature. CoTiO 3 is a honeycomb magnet with dominant XY-type magnetic interaction and an A-type antiferromagnetic order below T N ≈ 38 K. We found that the SO exciton becomes softer, but acquires a larger bandwidth in the paramagnetic phase, compared to that in the magnetically ordered phase. Moreover, an additional mode is only observed in the intermediate temperature range, as the sample is warmed up above the lowest accessible temperature below T N . Such an unusual temperature dependence observed in this material suggests that its ground states (an S eff = 1 2 doublet) and excited states multiplets are strongly coupled, and therefore cannot be treated independently, as often done in a pseudo-spin model. Furthermore, our observations can be explained by a multi-level theory within random phase approximation that explicitly takes into account both the ground and excited multiplets. The success of our theory, which is originally developed to explain temperature dependence of magnetic excitations in the rare-earth magnets, highlight the similarity between the magnetic excitations in rare-earth systems and those in transition metal systems with strong spin orbit coupling.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Climate Modeling System Using AI-assisted Process Emulators

This white paper addresses Focus Area II. We advocate developing a hybrid modeling system to improve the understanding of decadal- and longer-scale predictability of high impact water cycle components. This hybrid model combines a partial differential equation (PDE)-based dynamic core with AI/ML based emulators to represent many of the computationally expensive processes in Earth’s climate models. The hybrid modeling system has the potential to exploit emerging graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated architectures and allows for the generation of large ensemble (~1000’s) simulations to better characterize the model uncertainty and understand predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decline in Seasonal Snow during a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell

Snowpack loss in midlatitude mountains is ubiquitously projected by Earth system models, though the magnitudes, persistence, and time horizons of decline vary. Using daily downscaled hydroclimate and snow projections, we examine changes in snow seasonality across the U.S. Pacific Southwest region during a simulated severe 20-year dry spell in the 21st century (2051–2070) developed as part of the 4th California Climate Change Assessment to provide a “stress test” for water resources. Across California’s mountains, substantial declines (30–100% loss) in median peak annual snow water equivalent accompany changes in snow seasonality throughout the region compared to the historic period. We find that 80% of historic seasonal snowpacks transition to ephemeral conditions. Subsetting empirical-statistical wildfire projections for California by snow seasonality transition regions indicates a two-to-four-fold increase in the area burned, consistent with recent observations of high elevation wildfires following extended drought conditions. By analyzing six of the major California snow-fed river systems, we demonstrate snowpack reductions and seasonality transitions result in concomitant declines in annual runoff (47–58% of historical values). The negative impacts to statewide water supply reliability by the projected dry spell will likely be magnified by changes in snowpack seasonality and increased wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-enabled model-data integration for predicting subsurface water storage

Subsurface water storage (SWS) is a key variable of the climate system and a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the climate system. It plays a critical role in climate-change projections and can mitigate the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. However, because of the difficult accessibility of the underground, hydrologic properties and dynamics of SWS are poorly known. Direct observations of SWS are limited, and accurate incorporation of SWS dynamics into Earth system land models remains challenging. We propose a machine learning-enabled model-data integration framework to improve the SWS prediction at local to conus scales in a changing climate by leveraging all the available observation and simulation resources, as well as to inform the model development and guide the observation collection. The accurate prediction will enable an optimal decision of water management and land use and improve the ecosystem's resilience to the climate change.

Lu, Dan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Terminus: A Versatile Simulator for Space-based Telescopes

Space-based telescopes offer unparalleled opportunities for characterizing exoplanets, solar system bodies, and stellar objects. However, observatories in low-Earth orbits (e.g., Hubble, CHaracterising ExOPlanets Satellite, Twinkle, and an ever-increasing number of cubesats) cannot always be continuously pointed at a target due to Earth obscuration. For exoplanet observations consisting of transit, or eclipse, spectroscopy, this causes gaps in the light curve, which reduces the information content and can diminish the science return of the observation. Terminus, a time-domain simulator, has been developed to model the occurrence of these gaps to predict the potential impact on future observations. The simulator is capable of radiometrically modeling exoplanet observations as well as producing light curves and spectra. Here, Terminus is baselined on the Twinkle mission, but the model can be adapted for any space-based telescope and is especially applicable to those in a low-Earth orbit. Terminus also has the capability to model observations of other targets such as asteroids or brown dwarfs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards the next generation of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence

Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI), as the integration of geospatial studies and AI, has become one of the fastest-developing research directions in spatial data science and geography. This rapid change in the field calls for a deeper understanding of the recent developments and envision where the field is going in the near future. In this work, we provide a quantitative analysis of the GeoAI literature from the spatial, temporal, and semantic aspects. We briefly discuss the history of AI and GeoAI by highlighting some pioneering work. Then we discuss the current landscape of GeoAI by selecting five representative subdomains including remote sensing, urban computing, Earth system science, cartography, and geospatial semantics. Finally, we highlight several unique future research directions of GeoAI which are classified into two groups: GeoAI method development challenges and GeoAI Ethics challenges. Topics include heterogeneity-aware GeoAI, knowledge-guided GeoAI, spatial representation learning, geo-foundation models, fairness-aware GeoAI, privacy-aware GeoAI, as well as interpretable and explainable GeoAI. We hope our review of GeoAI’s past, present, and future is comprehensive and can enlighten the next generation of GeoAI research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging High-resolution Molecular Composition of Soil Organic Matter to Enhance Carbon Cycling Modeling

Soils store more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined, yet Earth system models still struggle to predict how this vast reservoir will respond to environmental change. A central limitation is that most soil biogeochemical models represent organic matter using bulk conceptual pools or chemically homogeneous fractions, preventing direct use of rapidly expanding molecular-scale datasets. Here we develop and test a new soil decomposition framework that explicitly integrates high-resolution information on organic matter composition. First, we construct a molecularly informed litter decomposition module in which plant inputs are partitioned into five functional compound classes—carbohydrates, proteins, lignin-like aromatics, lipids, and carbonyls—using a molecular mixing model calibrated to solid-state 13 C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra. Class-specific kinetics, lignin-dependent physical protection, and substrate-driven microbial carbon use efficiency allow the module to capture metabolic tradeoffs associated with enzyme production and nutrient limitation. We then embed this litter module within a microbially explicit whole-soil model that tracks the transformation of these compound classes through particulate organic matter, dissolved organic matter, mineral-associated organic matter, and microbial biomass. High-resolution Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data are used to link internal pools to measurable soil organic matter fractions and to constrain key process parameters. Applications at soil-core and ecosystem scales demonstrate that the new model reproduces observed soil respiration dynamics while providing mechanistic attribution of CO 2 fluxes to specific chemical classes and pools. Compared to existing frameworks such as the Community Land Model soil biogeochemistry module and the Millennial model, our approach maintains competitive predictive skill while substantially improving interpretability and opportunities for data–model integration. This work illustrates a viable pathway for leveraging molecular-scale observations to reduce structural uncertainty in soil carbon–climate feedback projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Torque Heavy-Rare-Earth-Free Electric Motor Thermal Management

This project is part of a multi-lab Next-Generation Reliable Electric Drive Systems for Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (NEXT-DRIVE) project led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and including NREL, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Ames Laboratory that leverages research expertise and facilities of these national labs to develop tools and approaches for reducing the design and development time of new electric drive technologies for medium and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) and their associated costs while increasing reliability and asset utilization. The Next-Drive project aligns with the DOE's goals by introducing high-fidelity multi-physics and AI/ML-based modeling to design low-cost, highly reliable, and longer-lifetime drivetrains, aiming to achieve 25 years of progress in 5 years. The efforts of this project will focus on NEXT-DRIVE Task 4 (led by ORNL, NREL, and AMES) - developing high-fidelity modeling framework and identifying technologies enabling heavy-rare-earth-free electric motors for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles to achieve 1 million miles of operation. Contrary to conventional approaches that optimize the motor for power density, the focus will be to identify motor designs that achieve the best trade-off between motor power density and durable operation. NREL tasks include development of high-fidelity motor thermal models incorporating rotor windage losses and identification, evaluation and measurement of motor interface materials in key thermal pathways. The poster summarizes NREL's accomplishments for the first half of FY 2025 and outlines future plans.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Package Data for CERF-Data Centers

This dataset contains sample input 100m resolution raster files for running the CERF-DC python package (see https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/cerf_data_centers) at the state level across the CONUS. Due to data availability constraints, some of the items included in this dataset are proxies or assumptions for siting factors used in the model. These are individually noted in the item descriptions and can be exchanged with more detailed information upon availability. Data Descriptions The following raster files are included in the data download: state_siting_region.tif — State areas identified by state FIPS code composite_siting_suitability.tif — Value of 1 indicates suitable siting location, 0 otherwise. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300m of a federal airport runway Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds Developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from developed lands land_value_dollar_per_sqft.tif — USD per square foot (sqft) derived from USDA $/acre land cost personal_property_tax_rate.tif — Personal property tax rate by state. Uses an assumed 0.0125 personal property tax rate for states with personal property tax, 0 for states without personal property tax. real_property_tax_rate.tif — Real property tax rate. Based on county level residential real estate property tax rates. sales_tax_rate.tif — Sales tax rate by state. mechanical_cooling_fraction.tif — Fraction of year (values between 0 and 1, inclusive) that the data center would be cooled through mechanical processes based on local water stress and humidity levels. water_cooling_fraction.tif — Fraction of year (values between 0 and 1, inclusive) that the data center would be cooled through evaporative (water cooled) processes based on local water stress and humidity levels. distance_to_substation.tif — Distance to nearest substation in hundreds of meters (i.e., value of 1 equals a distance of 100m). Offshore areas have a value of 0. industrial_electricity_rates_dollar_per_kwh.tif — USD/kWh industrial electricity rates. Represents the average industrial rate across all utilities that operate within a given county. Values are derived from the US Utility Rate Database. commercial_electricity_rates_dollar_per_kwh.tif — USD/kWh commercial electricity rates. Represents the average commercial rate across all utilities that operate within a given county. Values are derived from the US Utility Rate Database. data_center_market_locations.tif — Grid cells with positive values represent the centroid of existing data center market clusters. The value of non-zero grid cells represents the number of data centers in the market cluster. All other grid cells have a value of 0. Geospatial Metadata CRS: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) Extent: -2415585.0000000023283064,-1441981.2605773280374706 : 2384414.9999999976716936,1708018.7394226719625294 Dimensions: X: 48000 Y: 31500 Bands: 1 Origin: -2415585.0000000023283064,1708018.7394226719625294 Pixel Size: 100,-100 Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall↗

DOE OSTI2024

MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report

Preface The MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) Community of Practice (CoP) hosted an inaugural workshop on October 3-5, 2023 at the University of California, Davis, to bring together members of the MSD community of practice to advance understanding of the co-evolution of human and natural systems, and to build the next generation of tools that bridge sectors, scales, and systems to realize a more resilient and equitable future. The theme of the workshop was "Advancing Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems Science in a World of Interconnected Risks". This document outlines the motivation for the workshop, its goals and objectives, the application process, the agenda, overviews of the training sessions offered to the workshop participants and a summary of each breakout session. The MSD workshop report further discusses the feedback from workshop participants and presents some reflections and next steps. The MSD Workshop organizers thank the DOE Office of Science, Earth and Environmental System Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics program area for financial support of its activities through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. For more information related to the broader DOE MultiSector Dynamics Program please see https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/program-area/multisector-dynamics. D.L.M. and C.M.B. acknowledge support from the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the US Department of Energy (DOE). Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither theUnited States Government nor any agency thereof, nor Battelle Memorial Institute, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, complete- ness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial products, process, or service by trade name,trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory operated by Battelle for the United States Department of Energy Available from:Office of Scientific and Technical Information http://www.OSTI.gov multisectordynamics.org This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4 Suggested citation: Monier, E., Reed, P.M., Vernon, C.R., Hadjimichael, A., Brelsford, C.M., Burleyson, C.B., Dyreson, A.R., Fletcher, S.M., Giang, A., Gupta, R.S., Jackson, N.D., Jones, A.D., Lamontagne, J.R., McCollum, D.L., Morris, J.F., Moss, R.H., Peng, W., Saari, R.K., Srikrishnan, V., Szinai, J.K., Yoon, J. (2024) MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. doi:10.57931/2371710.

Monier, Erwan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Package Data for CERF-Data Centers

This dataset contains sample input 100m resolution raster files for running the CERF-DC python package (see https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/cerf_data_centers) at the state level across the CONUS. Due to data availability constraints, some of the items included in this dataset are proxies or assumptions for siting factors used in the model. These are individually noted in the item descriptions and can be exchanged with more detailed information upon availability. Data Descriptions The following raster files are included in the data download: state_siting_region.tif — State areas identified by state FIPS code composite_siting_suitability.tif — Value of 1 indicates suitable siting location, 0 otherwise. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands land_value_dollar_per_sqft.tif — USD per square foot (sqft) derived from USDA $/acre land cost personal_property_tax_rate.tif — Personal property tax rate by state. Uses an assumed 0.0125 personal property tax rate for states with personal property tax, 0 for states without personal property tax. real_property_tax_rate.tif — Real property tax rate. Based on county level residential real estate property tax rates. sales_tax_rate.tif — Sales tax rate by state. mechanical_cooling_fraction.tif — Fraction of year (values between 0 and 1, inclusive) that the data center would be cooled through mechanical processes based on local water stress and humidity levels. water_cooling_fraction.tif — Fraction of year (values between 0 and 1, inclusive) that the data center would be cooled through evaporative (water cooled) processes based on local water stress and humidity levels. distance_to_substation.tif — Distance to nearest substation in hundreds of meters (i.e., value of 1 equals a distance of 100m). Offshore areas have a value of 0. industrial_electricity_rates_dollar_per_kwh.tif — USD/kWh industrial electricity rates. Represents the average industrial rate across all utilities that operate within a given county. Values are derived from the US Utility Rate Database. commercial_electricity_rates_dollar_per_kwh.tif — USD/kWh commercial electricity rates. Represents the average commercial rate across all utilities that operate within a given county. Values are derived from the US Utility Rate Database. data_center_market_locations.tif — Grid cells with positive values represent the centroid of existing data center market clusters. The value of non-zero grid cells represents the number of data centers in the market cluster. All other grid cells have a value of 0. Geospatial Metadata CRS: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) Extent: -2415585.0000000023283064,-1441981.2605773280374706 : 2384414.9999999976716936,1708018.7394226719625294 Dimensions: X: 48000 Y: 31500 Bands: 1 Origin: -2415585.0000000023283064,1708018.7394226719625294 Pixel Size: 100,-100 Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fracture Mechanics—Theory, Modeling and Applications

The field of fracture mechanics was developed during the throes of World War II, and since then, it has been a very active area of research. This is a very energetic and vibrant field because fracture processes are relevant for a vast range of engineering applications spanning different temporal and length scales. Depending on the application, material fracture and fragmentation may be either a desirable feature (for example, for the purpose of hydraulic fracturing operations), or something that is to be avoided at all costs (for example, in key components of mechanical systems). In some other instances, fractures are already present and must be accommodated through novel design (for example, in the case of earthquake ruptures occurring in the Earth’s crust). Because of this wide spectra of motivation, there is a continuous need for the fracture mechanics research community to gain more insight on how fractures are created, evolve, and interact with themselves and with material microstructures. In addition, there are still many remaining questions about how fracture propagation, growth, and interaction impact overall material behavior, and how to develop accurate models to predict this behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office: Preprint

analysis↗