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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Review on Bioinspired Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell: Design and Materials

With the climate crisis gathering recognition, there has been significant interest in clean energy. As a reliable and clean energy solution, markets transitioning toward sustainable energy have identified polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) as a critical technology. The increasing interest in PEMFCs is primarily due to their high energy density, high efficiency and zero greenhouse gas emission. However, additional development is required to overcome the current barriers associated with fuel cell component design, high manufacturing cost, and insufficient stability. Bioinspired designs have the potential to provide new and valuable insights using novel techniques for extracting design inspirations from biological structures. Applying these design concepts to develop materials and structures for various fuel cell components can be transformative. The well–adapted structures and functional features of biological systems have been proven to greatly enhance the performance of current designs through novel and optimized pathways. Bioinspired designs have indeed lived up to performance expectations and even exceed them. Herein, the potential and value of using these bioinspired designs are discussed. Recent studies and advancements based on nature–inspired structures for components of PEMFCs and how these design considerations substantiate their claim as an attractive alternative to conventional designs are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating basis functions in massive fields under the spatial mixed effects model

Abstract Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the spatial mixed effects model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an alternating expectation conditional maximization algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature dataset archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.

Pazdernik, Karl↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutron elastic and inelastic cross section measurements on silicon from 0.8--8 MeV

Neutron elastic and inelastic scattering differential cross sections were measured at angles between 30° and 155° with incident neutron energies between 0.8 and 8 MeV. The measured differential scattering cross sections are compared to existing measurements and the ENDF/B-VIII.0, the JEFF-3.3, and the JENDL-4.0 data evaluations, as well as theoretical calculations from the TALYS-1.95 nuclear reaction code. Our results are reasonably well described by values from the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3 compilations. However, below 4 MeV, our backward-angle elastic scattering results tend to be lower than database/calculated values, suggesting that less recoil damage would occur than expected. Above 6 MeV, larger backward-angle cross sections are observed suggesting the opposite. Deexcitation γ rays produced in the inelastic scattering process were also studied for neutron energies between 1.9 and 4.5 MeV. Inelastic neutron scattering cross sections deduced from 28 Si(n,n1γ) γ-ray projection cross sections confirm our 28 Si(n,n1) results. To the extent that data from GELINA and our experimental results can be compared, we have excellent agreement between the inelastic neutron scattering cross sections.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deciphering yield modification of hadron-triggered semi-inclusive recoil jets in heavy-ion collisions

Jet quenching is recognized as critical evidence for the existence of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) and serves as an essential probe to study its transport properties. Measurements of hadron-triggered semi-inclusive recoil jets have gained popularity due to its capability to probe jets over an extended phase space at low transverse momenta (p T ) and large radii. Recent ALICE measurements showed that the I AA , yield ratio of recoil jets between heavy-ion and p+p collisions, rises with jet p T and exceeds unity at high p T , contradicting conventional expectations that jet quenching should result in I AA values less than one. In this contribution, we re-examine the surface bias and study the effects of energy losses for both trigger hadrons and recoil jets on I AA , employing the Linear Boltzmann Transport (LBT) model to simulate jet-medium interactions. Our findings suggest that a large portion of hadrons used for the triggers undergoes substantial energy loss, despite surface bias. In particular, the energy loss of the trigger hadrons elevates the I AA baseline, corresponding to the case of no energy loss for recoil jets, to be greatly larger than unity. This enhancement of the baseline implies that the measured I AA values being larger than unity could still signal jet quenching.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Caution on Using Tetrahydrofuran for Processing Crystalline Silica Samples From Engineered Stone for XRD Analysis

Abstract We conducted laboratory experiments to investigate a suspected effect of tetrahydrofuran (THF) on quantifying crystalline silica in samples collected from working with engineered stone when THF is used to process samples prior to the X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. Two groups of samples from grinding either engineered stone or granite were simultaneously taken from a laboratory testing system, with one group of samples using THF for processing and another group using muffle furnace for ashing. For each stone type, we also tested four levels of respirable dust loading on the samples by varying the grinding time from 1 to 8 min. Statistical analysis of the experimental results on crystalline silica contents of the two groups of samples showed that the difference between the two methods was not significant (P ≥ 0.05) for the granite at all four levels of respirable dust loading and for the engineered stone at the two levels of respirable dust loading greater than 0.5 mg. However, the crystalline silica content from using THF processing was significantly lower (P = 0.001) than that from using muffle furnace ashing for engineered stone when the respirable dust loading levels were less than 0.5 mg. For the engineered stone dust samples with grinding times of 1 and 2 min, the average respirable dust loading was about 0.19 and 0.34 mg, respectively; while the crystalline silica content from using THF processing was 30.9 and 21.5% lower than that from using muffle furnace ashing, respectively. Since most full-shift samples from field assessments in this industry are expected to have respirable dust loading less than 0.5 mg, muffle furnace or radio frequency plasma ashing should be specified as the preferred sample processing method instead of the THF processing method for quantification of crystalline silica when engineered stone is expected to present to avoid artificially reduced silica content values, which are likely caused by the reactions between THF and the resins in engineered stone.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technoeconomic Design of a Geothermal-Enabled Cold Climate Zero Energy Community

Development of a zero energy community is more costly in northern cold climates than in moderate regions. Building energy loads are higher, thanks to the colder weather, and site solar photovoltaics (PV) are less productive due to lower solar incidence and misalignment with the buildings’ energy needs (summer production, winter demands). Geothermal energy production can support a zero energy community through application of energy efficiency (demand design), geothermal production (supply design), and asset dispatch as an integrated techno-economic package. This article presents the process used to explore geothermal system integration, our findings, and technical challenges for community-scale adoption of geothermal as an electric and thermal resource. We show that under a wide range of conditions, community-scale geothermal electric power and direct-use thermal energy is economically competitive with “business-as-usual” design and construction practices for zero energy communities. Furthermore, geothermal-produced energy will be self-consumed to a much greater extent than PV, resulting in significant reductions in site energy import and export. We conclude that under appropriate conditions, community-scale geothermal can be the most economically favorable energy resource for northern-climate zero energy community developments. Ongoing geothermal research and development to improve performance and reduce costs will further enhance the value proposition for community-scale geothermal technologies. We expect that including geothermal power and thermal energy in zero energy community design can improve its cost-effectiveness and therefore enhance the benefits of zero energy in more northern climates.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

False Indications of Dose-Response Nonlinearity in Large Epidemiologic Cancer Radiation Cohort Studies; A Simulation Exercise

This study explores the likely prevalence of false indications of dose-response nonlinearity in large epidemiologic cancer radiation cohort studies (A-bomb survivors, INWORKS, Techa River). Reasons: Increasing numbers of tests of nonlinearity are being made in studies. Hypothesized nonlinear dose-response models have been justified to policy makers by analyses that rely in part on isolated findings that could be statistical fluctuations. After removing dose nonlinearity (linearization) by adjusting person-years of observation at each dose category, indications of nonlinearity, necessarily false, were counted in 5,000 randomized replications of six datasets. The average frequency of any false positive for five indicators of nonlinearity tested against a linear null was roughly 25% in Monte Carlo simulations per study, consistent with binomial calculations, increasing to ~50% within 6 studies assessed. Comparable frequencies were found using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection or multi-model averaging. False above-zero threshold doses were found more than 50% of the time, averaging to 0.05 Gy, consistent with findings in the 6 studies. Such bias, uncorrected, could distort meta-analyses of multiple studies, because meta-analyses can incorporate high P value findings. AIC-based correction for the extra threshold parameter lowered these false occurrences to 8 to 19%. Given the simulation rates, the possibility of false positives might be noted when isolated findings of nonlinearity are discussed in a regulatory context. When reporting a threshold dose with a P value > 0.05, it would be informative to note the expected high false prevalence rate due to bias.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

CO 2 and Renewable Electricity into Chemicals: Formic Acid Production from Coal Flue Gas

Formic acid (FA) is an industrial chemical. It is used as a preservative for silage, as a digestive aid for animals, as a fluid for fracking, as a pharmaceutical intermediate and in leather tanning. The global formic acid market is valued at 777.4 million USD in 2020 and is expected to reach 851.8 million USD by the end of 2026. A new major formic acid application is the use of formic acid as a key feedstock for the bioprocessing industry. It has the potential to grow tremendously if we can lower the cost of formic acid production compared with the current fossil-fuel one. Recently, Dioxide Materials has developed a technology that can directly convert CO 2 to pure formic acid with a three-compartment CO 2 electrolyzer. However, the electrolyzer performance needs further improvement for the technology to be commercially viable. The major objective of this project is to develop the electrolyzer technology to enable formic acid as a feedstock for the bioprocessing industry to be economically manufactured from flue gas from a coal fired pilot plant. In particular, the project is to understand how to run the electrolyzer for the conversion of CO 2 into formic acid using flue gas from a coal fired power plant as a source of CO 2 . The work will include characterizing how the performance of the electrolyzer changes with low CO 2 concentration and impurities, developing new cell designs that can still operate with feedstocks with low CO 2 concentrations, testing simulated flue gas in the electrolyzer system and developing filters to remove any impurities that arise.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Main Bearing Replacement and Damage - A Field Data Study on 15 Gigawatts of Wind Energy Capacity

This study seeks to establish a comprehensive baseline of knowledge for the replacement and damage of main bearings in wind turbines. The purpose of this report is to provide a high-level summary of the data set, methodology, and results of this work. Full technical details and an extended analysis will be made available in a future publication. We collected data on main bearing replacements and reported damage from industrial partners based in Europe and the United States. In total, we obtained data for 167 wind power plants, with a combined capacity of 15.3 gigawatts (GW). Most of the data set was comprised of land-based, three-point mount, spherical roller bearings. Within this data set were 689 instances of main bearing replacement. Analysis was undertaken in two parts: first, a statistical analysis of the main bearing time-to-replacement data using survival analysis techniques; second, quantitative and qualitative analyses of the obtained damage information. Our results showed that 10% of a fixed main bearing population would be expected to have been replaced by 10.5 years. This is close to half of the 20-year design value. Fitted parametric distributions then indicated that by year 20, between 22% and 25% of main bearings are expected to have been replaced. Analysis of the damage reports revealed spalling to be the main type of damage listed. The additional presence of surface damage in the collected data indicates that at least part of the spalling cases are likely due to surface-initiated rolling contact fatigue. At this stage is not clear what proportion of spalling cases result from "wear induced", surface-initiated and subsurface-initiated rolling contact fatigue. While this work provides important insights into the current state of main bearing replacements and damage, many questions remain. An ongoing and expanding data collection and analysis effort focused on wind turbine main bearings is therefore recommended.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of fine features of the nuclear equation of state from future neutron star radius measurements to 0.1 km accuracy

To more precisely constrain the equation of state (EOS) of supradense neutron-rich nuclear matter, future high-precision x-ray and gravitational wave observatories are proposed to measure the radii of neutron stars (NSs) with an accuracy better than about 0.1 km. However, it remains unclear what particular aspects (other than the stiffness generally spoken of in the literature) of the EOS and to what precision they will be better constrained. In this work, within a Bayesian framework using a metamodel EOS for NSs, we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of incompressibility K 0 and skewness J 0 of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) as well as the slope L, curvature K sym , and skewness J sym characterizing the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy E sym ⁡(ρ), respectively, from mean values of NS radii consistent with existing observations and an expected accuracy Δ⁢R ranging from about 1.0 to 0.1 km. Here, we found that (1) the Δ⁢R has little effect on inferring the stiffness of SNM at suprasaturation densities, (2) smaller Δ⁢R reveals more accurately not only the PDFs but also pairwise correlations among parameters characterizing high-density E sym ⁡(ρ), (3) a double-peak feature of the PDF(K sym ) corresponding to the strong K sym – J sym and K sym – L anticorrelations is revealed when Δ⁢R is less than about 0.2 km, and the locations of the two peaks are sensitive to the maximum value of J sym reflecting the stiffness of E sym ⁡(ρ) above about 3 times the saturation density ρ 0 of SNM, and (4) the high-precision radius measurement for canonical NSs is more useful than that for massive ones for constraining the EOS of nucleonic matter around (2–3)⁢ρ 0 .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Diesel/Biofuel Blends Using Artificial Neural Networks and Linear/Nonlinear Equations

Abstract The use of biomass-derived additives in diesel fuel mixtures has the potential to increase the fuel’s efficiency, decrease the formation of particulate matter during its combustion, and retain the fuel’s behavior in cold weather. To this end, identifying compounds that enable these behaviors is paramount. The present work utilizes a series of linear and non-linear equations in series with artificial neural networks to predict the cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, cloud point, and lower heating value of multi-component blends. Property values of pure components are predicted using artificial neural networks trained with existing experimental data, and these predictions and their expected errors are propagated through linear and non-linear equations to obtain property predictions for multi-component blends. Individual component property prediction errors, defined by blind prediction median absolute error, are 4.91 units, 7.84 units, 0.06 cSt, 4.00 °C, and 0.55 MJ/kg for cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, cloud point, and lower heating value respectively. On average, property predictions for blends are shown to be accurate to within 6% of the blends’ experimental values. Further, a multitude of compounds expected to be produced from catalytically upgrading products of fast pyrolysis are evaluated with respect to their behavior in diesel fuel blends.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for Higgs boson pairs decaying to WW*WW*, WW* ττ , and ττττ in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

The results of a search for Higgs boson pair (HH) production in the WW*WW*, WW*$ττ$, and $ττττ$ decay modes are presented. The search uses 138 fb –1 of proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV from 2016 to 2018. Analyzed events contain two, three, or four reconstructed leptons, including electrons, muons, and hadronically decaying tau leptons. No evidence for a signal is found in the data. Upper limits are set on the cross section for nonresonant HH production, as well as resonant production in which a new heavy particle decays to a pair of Higgs bosons. For nonresonant production, the observed (expected) upper limit on the cross section at 95% confidence level (CL) is 21.3 (19.4) times the standard model (SM) prediction. The observed (expected) ratio of the trilinear Higgs boson self-coupling to its value in the SM is constrained to be within the interval –6.9 to 11.1 (–6.9 to 11.7) at 95% CL, and limits are set on a variety of new-physics models using an effective field theory approach. The observed (expected) limits on the cross section for resonant HH production range from 0.18 to 0.90 (0.08 to 1.06) pb at 95% CL for new heavy-particle masses in the range 250–1000 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid power plants: An effective way of decreasing loss-of-load expectation

Diversifying variable renewable resources by combining wind, solar photovoltaic, and battery assets in a hybrid power plant can increase renewable energy usage efficiency and improve system flexibility, particularly in distributed energy systems. However, the resilience impact of these systems, particularly outage mitigation, can be difficult to quantify due to uncertainty in resource, energy demand, and outage occurrence. Here, this study outlines a framework to quantify the incremental benefit of hybrid power plant assets for reducing loss-of-load expectation during random outage events. Hybrid power plant performance during outages (considering varying duration and severity) is simulated using a Monte Carlo methodology to reflect uncertainty associated with renewable resource, load demand, and outage timing. Results demonstrate the additional incremental value from increasingly hybrid designs, in which relative capacities of wind, solar photovoltaic, and storage assets contribute to lower loss-of-load expectation than the constituent technologies would alone. The value of added wind or solar capacity increases as the plant composition approaches an equal split. The value of added battery capacity depends on the outage duration and severity, but the first 50 MWh of added storage capacity is the most valuable for reducing the loss-of-load expectation for all plant designs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling from the combination of single and double Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV

The Higgs boson (H) trilinear self-coupling, λ 3 , is constrained via its measured properties and limits on the HH pair production using the proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV . The combination of event categories enriched in single-H and HH events is used to measure κ λ , defined as the value of λ 3 normalized to its standard model prediction, while simultaneously constraining the Higgs boson couplings to fermions and vector bosons. Values of κ λ outside the interval -1.2 < κ λ < 7.5 are excluded at 2σ confidence level, which is compatible with the expected range of -2.0 < κ λ < 7.7 under the assumption that all other Higgs boson couplings are equal to their standard model predicted values. Relaxing the assumption on the Higgs couplings to fermions and vector bosons the observed (expected) κ λ interval is constrained to be within -1.4 < κ λ < 7.8 (-2.3 < κ λ < 7.8) at 2σ confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected Seismic Activity at the Tiger Stripe Fractures on Enceladus, Saturn, From an Analog Study of Tidally Modulated Icequakes Within the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Abstract Dissipation of tidal energy is expected to generate seismicity on icy‐ocean worlds; however, the distribution and timing of this seismic activity throughout an orbital cycle is not known. We used new observations from an icy‐ocean‐world analog environment on Earth to examine the relationship between tidally driven tensile stress and seismic activity within an ice shell. We investigated a pair of rifts within Antarctica's Ross Ice Shelf which are tidally stressed in a manner analogous to the orbital cycle of tidal stress experienced by Enceladus' Tiger Stripe Fractures. We found that seismic activity at the Antarctic rifts is sensitive to both the amplitude and the rate of tensile stress across the rifts. We combined these findings with calculated stress values along Enceladus' Tiger Stripe Fractures to predict seismic‐activity levels expected along the ice‐shell fractures. We predict a peak in seismicity along the four Tiger Stripe Fractures when Enceladus is 90°–120° past pericenter in its orbit around Saturn, at which point tensile stresses would reach ∼2/3 of their maximum value. We also used the magnitude distribution of icequakes along Antarctic rifts to investigate implications for the likely size of stick‐slip rupture patches along icy faults on Enceladus. Our findings predict that the Tiger Stripe Fractures should produce sustained, low‐magnitude seismic events that involve rupture along discrete portions of each fracture's total length. We predict that seismicity would fall to 50% of peak levels when stresses across the Tiger Stripe Fractures are dominantly compressional.

Olsen, Kira G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Radiative natural supersymmetry emergent from the string landscape

In string theory with flux compactifications, anthropic selection for structure formation from a discretuum of vacuum energy values provides at present our only understanding of the tiny yet positive value of the cosmological constant. We apply similar reasoning to a toy model of the multiverse restricted to vacua with the MSSM as the low energy effective theory. Here, one expects a statistical selection favoring large soft SUSY breaking terms leading to a derived value of the weak scale in each pocket universe (with appropriate electroweak symmetry breaking) which differs from the weak scale as measured in our universe. In contrast, the SUSY preserving μ parameter is selected uniformly on a log scale as is consistent with the distribution of SM fermion masses: this favors smaller values of μ. An anthropic selection of the weak scale to within a factor of a few of our measured value — in order to produce complex nuclei as we know them (atomic principle) — provides statistical predictions for Higgs and sparticle masses in accord with LHC measurements. The statistical selection then more often leads to (radiatively-driven) natural SUSY models over the Standard Model or finely-tuned SUSY models such as mSUGRA/CMSSM, split, mini-split, spread, high scale or PeV SUSY. The predicted Higgs and superparticle spectra might be testable at HL-LHC or ILC via higgsino pair production but is certainly testable at higher energy hadron colliders with $ \sqrt{s}$ ~ 30–100 TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hanford Waste Treatment Plant LAB Facility Stack Effluent Monitoring: Sampling Probe Location Qualification Evaluation

The WTP LAB stack monitor locations were qualified using scale model stacks to mitigate the risk of identifying that sampling locations do not meet the qualification criteria on the full-scale stack. As required by the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard, the scale model and its sampling location were geometrically similar to the actual stack and the Reynolds numbers for both the actual and model stacks were >10,000. An additional criterion is that the DV of the full-scale stack must be between 1/6 DV and 6 DV of the scale model stack tests. Verification tests of the LAB stacks were performed at normal operating conditions. The maximum 6 DV value from the scale model testing determines the maximum conditions for which the full-scale stack may be operated and remain in compliance with the stack verification criterion. The remaining criteria for the stack verification to be considered valid involve the flow angle and velocity uniformity results. First, the flow angle at the full-scale stack must be = 20°. Second, the velocity uniformity at the full-scale stack must be = 20% COV. Finally, the velocity uniformity results for the actual and scale model stacks must agree within 5% COV. In general, these criteria were met through the full-scale stack tests at the LAB facility. Some specific items for each scale model and full-scale stack comparison should be noted in assessing the validity of the verification tests. The LB-C2 scale model stacks were performed with single fan operations at then-minimum flow conditions. These conditions resulted in DV values that were too low to meet the DV range criterion, and therefore are unable to be used in qualifying single fan operations on the full-scale stack. However, the single fan operations demonstrated COV values for velocity uniformity as well as flow angles that were comparable to the dual-fan operations at high flows. Overall, the test conditions and test results were within the range of acceptable values based on current design flow rates. Single fan operations are expected to only occur infrequently for maintenance needs and is therefore not a planned operating condition at this time. The LB-S1 scale model stacks were performed at three fan combinations, and in each combination, at least one test was performed at the then-minimum flow conditions as well as at then-maximum flow conditions. While the then-minimum flow conditions result in a DV range that is lower than the verification test DV value, and therefore does not meet the criterion, these tests are un-necessary for the verification test acceptance. The normal and maximum flow conditions from the scale model stack tests meet the DV range criterion, and the velocity uniformity test results compare favorably with the full-scale stack results. The LB-S2 scale model stacks were performed at nominally the same maximum flow condition; however, the 6 DV value for Fan A operation was slightly lower than the full-scale stack test DV. The COV values from the scale model stacks were comparable between the Fan A and Fan B results, and the overall test conditions are within the range of acceptable values. The stack verification is therefore considered acceptable for both Fan A and Fan B operations. The verification tests were performed at flows that were appreciably higher than the design conditions, and further elevated flow rates would be beyond the range of acceptable DV. Based on these stack verification test results, the three LAB filtered exhaust stacks meet the qualification criteria provided in the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard. Further changes to the system configuration or operating conditions that are outside the bounds described in this and the scale model test reports (Glissmeyer, Flaherty, and Piepel (2001), Glissmeyer and Geeting (2013)) may require additional tests and additional analyses to determine compliance with the standard.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Averse Bi-Level Stochastic Network Interdiction Model for Cyber-Security Risk Management

Security of cyber networks is crucial; recent severe cyber-attacks have had a devastating effect on many large organizations. The attack graph, which maps the potential attack paths of a cyber network, is a popular tool for analyzing cyber system vulnerability. In this study, we propose a bi-level stochastic network interdiction model on an attack graph to enable a risk-averse, resource constrained cyber network defender to optimally deploy security countermeasures that protect against attackers with an uncertain budget. This risk- averse conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) model minimizes a weighted sum of the expected maximum loss over all scenarios and the expected maximum loss from the most damaging attack scenarios. We develop a customized constraint and column generation algorithm to solve our model as well as several acceleration techniques to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the acceleration techniques enable the solution of relatively large problems within a reasonable amount of time: applying all the acceleration techniques also reduces the average computation time of the basic algorithm by 71% for 100-node graphs. Using metrics called mean-risk value of stochastic solution and value of risk-aversion, computational results suggest that our stochastic risk-averse model significantly outperforms deterministic and risk-neutral models when 1) the distribution of attacker budget is heavy-right-tailed and 2) the defender is highly risk-averse.

Bhuiyan, Tanveer H.↗