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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Aspects of the Kelvin wave response to episodic wind forcing

Episodes of westerly wind are an important aspect of surface stress variability in the western Pacific. During ENSO periods, the presence of such wind episodes comprises much of the LF relaxation of the trades over the central and western Pacific. This paper describes the oceanic Kelvin pulse response to a single idealized episode of westerly wind stress, using results from linear theory as well as from a 27-level general circulation model. When stratification typical of the western and eastern Pacific is used, the conservation of energy flux predicts a reduction of surface currents associated with the first baroclinic mode and an enhancement of surface currents associated with the second baroclinic mode. The idealized wind anomaly is also used to drive an ocean general circulation model. When the wind anomaly is weak, the model Kelvin response agrees with predictions of linear theory. For more realistic strong forcing there are three important deviations from linear theory: the amplitude of low baroclinic modes increases; the amplitude of higher baroclinic modes decreases; and the phase speed increases.

Giese, Benjamin S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Thermal forcing on the tropical Pacific from satellite data

Monthly fields of latent heat flux and surface solar irradiance derived from spaceborne sensors were combined to estimate the surface thermal forcing on the tropical Pacific from 1980 to 1983. The annual cycle and the anomalies associated with 1982-1983 ENSO episode were examined. Along the equator and during the early phase of the episode the reduction of solar irradiance into the ocean is found to be compensated to some extent by the decrease in evaporative cooling. The distribution of correlation coefficients demonstrated that outside the equatorial waveguides, surface thermal forcing plays a significant role in the seasonal change of sea surface temperature and surface solar irradiance is main driving force. Significant correlation is also found between anomalous latent heat flux and anomalous change of sea surface temperature over a broad area in the equatorial and southern tropical Pacific, indicating that surface thermal forcing may play a larger role than expected in the anomalous sea surface temperature change, particularly in the reestablishment of the cold tongue at end of the episode.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS1991

Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

Rampino, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Remote sensing of the thermal forcing on the tropical Pacific

Monthly fields of shortwave radiation (SR) and latent heat flux (LE) over the central and eastern tropical Pacific between 1980 and 1983 have been computed using satellite data. They are the dominant variable components of surface thermal forcing on the ocean in this time scale. During the 1982-1983 ENSO episode, surface-wind convergence and cloudiness associated with the displacement of equatorial organized convection caused a reduction in both the SR into the ocean and the LE out of the ocean. The lag-correlation coefficients between the forcing (SR-LE) and the sea surface temperature are found to be significantly high outside the equatorial region, showing that surface thermal forcing is the dominant factor in sea surface temperature change. In the narrow equatorial wave guide, ocean dynamics play a more important role, and surface heat flux is a consequence rather than the cause of sea surface temperature change.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS1990

Climatologically tuned reflectivity-rain rate relations and links to area-time integrals

An effort is made to determine relationships between reflectivity (Z) and rain rate (R) which are tuned to the local climatology. The development of such relations was motivated by the need to understand the role of precipitation in controlling general circulation and in affecting such phenomena as ENSO. Attention is given to methods of deriving such relations and how they are linked to area integral rainfall measurements. In essence, the relation is tuned so that the probability distribution of reflectivity, P(Z), replicates that of R over some predetermined space-time climatic domain. Thus, the accurate measurement of the average R over any smaller domain depends on how closely the sampled P(Z) approximates the climatic P(Z). The probability matching method used is a modification of the approach of Calheiros and Zawadzki (1987) and Rosenfeld (1980). The technique is applied to data from Germany and the eastern tropical Atlantic (GATE).

Atlas, David↗
NASA NTRS1991

Diabatic heating rate estimates from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses

Vertically integrated diabatic heating rate estimates (H) calculated from 32 months of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts daily analyses (May 1985-December 1987) are determined as residuals of the thermodynamic equation in pressure coordinates. Values for global, hemispheric, zonal, and grid point H are given as they vary over the time period examined. The distribution of H is compared with previous results and with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements. The most significant negative correlations between H and OLR occur for (1) tropical and Northern-Hemisphere mid-latitude oceanic areas and (2) zonal and hemispheric mean values for periods less than 90 days. Largest positive correlations are seen in periods greater than 90 days for the Northern Hemispheric mean and continental areas of North Africa, North America, northern Asia, and Antarctica. The physical basis for these relationships is discussed. An interyear comparison between 1986 and 1987 reveals the ENSO signal.

Christy, John R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Comparison of the impact of the 1982/83 and 1986/87 Pacific SST anomalies on time-mean predictions of atmospheric circulation

This study contrasts the impact of the ENSO SST anomalies observed during the Northern Hemisphere winters of 1982/83 and 1986/87 predictions with a GCM. The results of an analysis of the anomalous divergence and effective Rossby wave source in the tropical and subtropical Pacific during these two years indicate that the primary observed and simulated extratropical circulation features may have been forced from the subtropics other than the tropics. Relatively small magnitudes of the SST and precipitation anomalies in the subtropics make it probable that these subtropical divergence and Rossby wave source anomalies themselves were forced from the tropics.

Fennessy, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Precipitation rates in the tropics based on the Q1-budget method - 1 June 1984-31 May 1987

The 'apparent' heat source method (Q1 budget) is used to compute the total derivative of dry static energy from 30 deg N to 30 deg S for the period June 1, 1984-May 31, 1987. The dataset is produced from the ECMWF global analyses and consists of twice-daily values of temperature, geopotential height, horizontal wind components, and vertical velocity at increments of 2.5 x 2.5 deg lat/long at seven pressure levels. Vertically integrated values of ds/dt, which are equal to total diabatic heating, Q1, are combined with estimates of net columnar radiation and surface sensible heat exchange to compute mean monthly precipitation rates, P0, as the residual in the Q1 budget. The accuracy of these P0 values is thoroughly examined, and it is suggested that the technique produces reliable estimates of precipitation over tropical oceanic areas on a monthly basis. Time series of mean monthly P0 for several geographic regions of the Southern Hemisphere tropics and the equatorial western Pacific (TOGA-COARE region) reveal that (1) the South Pacific convergence zone has the highest precipitation rates in the Southern Hemisphere; (2) a clear and distinct seasonal cycle is prominent in all regions; and (3) the 1986-87 ENSO event is easily identified, particularly in the TOGA-COARE region.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Precipitable water and surface humidity over global oceans from special sensor microwave imager and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

Global fields of precipitable water W from the special sensor microwave imager were compared with those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. They agree over most ocean areas; both data sets capture the two annual cycles examined and the interannual anomalies during an ENSO episode. They show significant differences in the dry air masses over the eastern tropical-subtropical oceans, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, comparisons with radiosonde data indicate that overestimation by the ECMWF model accounts for a large part of the differences. As a check on the W differences, surface-level specific humidity Q derived from W, using a statistical relation, was compared with Q from the ECMWF model. The differences in Q were found to be consistent with the differences in W, indirectly validating the Q-W relation. In both W and Q, SSMI was able to discern clearly the equatorial extension of the tongues of dry air in the eastern tropical ocean, while both ECMWF and climatological fields have reduced spatial gradients and weaker intensity.

Liu, W. T.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Global average concentration and trend for hydroxyl radicals deduced from ALE/GAGE trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) data for 1978-1990

An optimal estimation inversion scheme is utilized with atmospheric data and emission estimates to determined the globally averaged CH3CCl3 tropospheric lifetime and OH concentration. The data are taken from atmospheric measurements from surface stations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane and show an annual increase of 4.4 +/- 0.2 percent. Industrial emission estimates and a small oceanic loss rate are included, and the OH concentration for the same period (1978-1990) are incorporated at 1.0 +/- 0.8 percent/yr. The positive OH trend is consistent with theories regarding OH and ozone trends with respect to land use and global warming. Attention is given to the effects of the ENSO on the CH3CCl3 data and the assumption of continuing current industrial anthropogenic emissions. A novel tropical atmospheric tracer-transport mechanism is noted with respect to the CH3CCl3 data.

Prinn, R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Tropical Pacific Ocean response to observed winds in a layered general circulation model

The effect of forcing by monthly wind-stress variability is assessed with respect to the behavior of an isopycnic coordinate general circulation model. The isopycnic model incorporates an embedded mixed layer, and the equations are given for the interior layers, the surface mixed layer, and the atmospheric forcing. The anomalous variability of several variables is examined in a simulation using data from 1970-1985 with specific attention given to the anomalous response related to the 1982-1983 ENSO. The model fields describing sea-surface temperature (SST), sea level, and currents are found to be comparable to those reported from observational campaigns. Anomalous values of SST compare best with observed data when averaged over large spatial regions, and the amplitudes of the mean horizontal currents and anomalous zonal currents are comparable except with respect to amplitude data. The present study permits the simulation of basin-scale tropical Pacific mixed-layer depth and the mean vertical velocity field.

Miller, Arthur J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Annual and interannual variations of earth-emitted radiation based on a 10-year data set

The method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) was applied to a 10-yr data set of outgoing longwave radiation. Spherical harmonic functions are used as a basis set for producing equal area map results. The first EOF accounts for 66 percent of the variance. After that, each EOF accounts for only a small variance, forming a slowly converging series. The first two EOFs describe mainly the annual cycle. The third EOF is primarily the semiannual cycle although many other EOFs also contain significant semiannual parts. These results reaffirm those based on a shorter data set. In addition, a much stronger spring/fall mode was found in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean for the second EOF than was found earlier. The fourth EOF describes much of the 1976 to 1977 and 1982 to 1983 ENSO phenomena. There is typically a gap in the spectrum between a semiannual peak and the annual cycle for all but the first EOF. A semiannual OLR dipole straddles the Asian-Australian monsoon track.

Bess, T. D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗
NASA NTRS1992

An analysis of the relationship between cloud anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies in a global circulation model

The relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalies of the monthly mean cloud cover (including the high-level, low-level, and total cloud cover), the outgoing longwave radiation, and the reflected solar radiation was analyzed using a least absolute deviations regression at each grid point over the open ocean for a 6-yr period. The results indicate that cloud change in association with a local 1-C increase in SSTAs cannot be used to predict clouds in a potential future world where all the oceans are 1-C warmer than at present, because much of the observed cloud changes are due to circulation changes, which in turn are related not only to changes in SSTAs but to changes in SSTA gradients. However, because SSTAs are associated with changes in the local ocean-atmosphere moisture and heat fluxes as well as significant changes in circulation (such as ENSO), SSTAs can serve as a surrogate for many aspects of global climate change.

Peterson, Thomas C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures

We have analyzed spatial correlation patterns of interdecadal global surface temperature variability from an empirical perspective. Using multitaper coherence estimates from 140-yr records, we find that correlations between hemispheres are significant at about 95 percent confidence for nonrandomness for most of the frequency band in the 0.06-0.24 cyc/yr range. Coherence estimates of pairs of 100-yr grid-point temperature data series near 5-yr period reveal teleconnection patterns consistent with known patterns of ENSO variability. Significant correlated variability is observed near 15 year period, with the dominant teleconnection pattern largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Peak-to-peak Delta-T is at about 0.5 deg, with simultaneous warming and cooling of discrete patches on the earth's surface. A global average of this pattern would largely cancel.

Mann, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A case study of the intraseasonal oscillation traversing the TOGA-COARE LSD

The paper presents examination of tree intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISOs) that occurred during the southern summer season (December 1, 1985 - February 28, 1986) traversing the Large-Scale Domain (LSD) TOGA-COARE, the region which also plays an important role in ENSO, Australian monsoon, and extratropical circulations. Data presented include Hovmoeller diagrams of 5-day running means of 250-mb velocity potential anomalies and OLR anomalies; graphs of five-day running means of OLR in precipitable water (W) per sq m, averaged over 10 x 10 deg boxes centered on 5 S and (1) 145 E, (2) 155 E, (3) 165 E, and (4) 165 D, indicating the midpoint of each ISO; and vertical profiles of zonal wind in m/s averaged over the time period that each ISO spends in the 10 x 10 deg box centered at 5 S, and 175 E and 145 E.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observational evidence and dynamical interpretation of the total ozone variations in the equatorial region

The total ozone amount is sensitive to the general circulation changes in the lower stratosphere due to the photochemically inactive nature of ozone there. In the equatorial region, such circulation changes arise from the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the stratospheric zonal wind and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the first half of this study we present observational results of the long-term variations in the equatorial ozone field using the 11 year Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data, by paying special attention to the longitudinal structure. In the latter half we try to understand quantitatively these variations by using a simple mechanistic relationship. We hypothesis that the ozone modulating processes are attributable to two dynamical effects, the advection effect and tropopause effect, owing to the strong vertical stratification of ozone existing just above the tropopause. The advection effect comes from the vertical motion which maintains the temperature structure, compensating for the radiative damping. The tropopause effect is associated with the altitude change of the tropopause. The total ozone variations in the tropics is discussed in terms of these two dynamical processes with the aid of mechanistic equations combined with the wind and sea surface temperature (SST) observations. The interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes are beyond the scope of this study. Photochemical effects are also neglected. Details of this study are given by Shiotani (1992) and Hasebe (1992).

Shiotani, Masato↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere

In this paper, fundamental multiscale circulation modes in the global atmosphere are identified with the objective of providing better understanding of atmospheric low-frequency variabilities over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. With the use of a combination of rotated principal component technique, singular spectrum analysis, and phase space portraits, three categories of basic multiscale modes in the atmosphere are found. The first is the interannual-mode (IAM), which is dominated by time scales longer than a year and can be attributed to heating and circulation anomalies associated with the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere, in particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second is a set of tropical intraseasonal modes consisting of three separate multiscale patterns (ISO-1, -2, -3) related to tropical heating that can be identified with the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), including its teleconnection to the extratropics. The ISO spatial and temporal patterns suggest that the extratropical wave train in the North Pacific and North America is related to heating over the Maritime Continent and that the evolution of the MJO around the equator may require forcing from the extratropics spawning convection over the Indian Ocean. The third category represents extratropical intraseasonal oscillations arising from internal dynamics of the basic-state circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two distinct circulation modes with multiple frequencies in this category: the Pacific/North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic/Eurasia (NAE). In the Southern Hemisphere, two phase-locked modes (PSA-1 and PSA-2) are found depicting an eastward propagating wave train from eastern Australia, via the Pacific South America to the South Atlantic. The extratropical modes exhibit temporal characteristics such as phase locking and harmonic oscillations possibly associated with quadratically nonlinear dynamical systems. Additionally, the observed monthly and seasonal anomalies arise from a complex interplay of the various multiscale low-frequency modes. The relative dominance of the different modes varies widely from month to month and from year to year. On the monthly time scale, while one or two mechanisms may dominate in one year, no single mechanism seems to dominate for all years. There are indications that when the IAM, that is, ENSO heating patterns are strong, the extratropical modes may be suppressed and vice versa. For the seasonal mean, the interannual mode tends to dominate and the contribution from the PNA remains quite significant.

Lau, K.-M.↗