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At least 487 records · Page 27

How Well Do Multisatellite Products Capture the Space–Time Dynamics of Precipitation? Part I: Five Products Assessed via a Wavenumber–Frequency Decomposition

As more global satellite-derived precipitation products become available, it is imperative to evaluate them more carefully for providing guidance as to how well precipitation space–time features are captured for use in hydrologic modeling, climate studies, and other applications. Here we propose a space–time Fourier spectral analysis and define a suite of metrics that evaluate the spatial organization of storm systems, the propagation speed and direction of precipitation features, and the space–time scales at which a satellite product reproduces the variability of a reference “ground-truth” product (“effective resolution”). We demonstrate how the methodology relates to our physical intuition using the case study of a storm system with rich space–time structure. We then evaluate five high-resolution multisatellite products (CMORPH, GSMaP, IMERG-Early, IMERG-Final, and PERSIANN-CCS) over a period of 2 years over the southeastern United States. All five satellite products show generally consistent space–time power spectral density when compared to a reference ground gauge–radar dataset (GV-MRMS), revealing agreement in terms of average morphology and dynamics of precipitation systems. However, a deficit of spectral power at wavelengths shorter than 200 km and periods shorter than 4 h reveals that all satellite products are excessively “smooth.” The products also show low levels of spectral coherence with the gauge–radar reference at these fine scales, revealing discrepancies in capturing the location and timing of precipitation features. From the space–time spectral coherence, the IMERG-Final product shows superior ability in resolving the space–time dynamics of precipitation down to 200-km and 4-h scales compared to the other products.

Clement Guilloteau↗

The Computational Complexity, Parallel Scalability, and Performance of Atmospheric Data Assimilation Algorithms

The computational complexity of algorithms for Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (4DDA) at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is discussed. In 4DDA, observations are assimilated with the output of a dynamical model to generate best-estimates of the states of the system. It is thus a mapping problem, whereby scattered observations are converted into regular accurate maps of wind, temperature, moisture and other variables. The DAO is developing and using 4DDA algorithms that provide these datasets, or analyses, in support of Earth System Science research. Two large-scale algorithms are discussed. The first approach, the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), uses an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) and an observation-space based analysis system, the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). GEOS DAS is very similar to global meteorological weather forecasting data assimilation systems, but is used at NASA for climate research. Systems of this size typically run at between 1 and 20 gigaflop/s. The second approach, the Kalman filter, uses a more consistent algorithm to determine the forecast error covariance matrix than does GEOS DAS. For atmospheric assimilation, the gridded dynamical fields typically have More than 10(exp 6) variables, therefore the full error covariance matrix may be in excess of a teraword. For the Kalman filter this problem can easily scale to petaflop/s proportions. We discuss the computational complexity of GEOS DAS and our implementation of the Kalman filter. We also discuss and quantify some of the technical issues and limitations in developing efficient, in terms of wall clock time, and scalable parallel implementations of the algorithms.

Lyster, Peter M.↗

Stratospheric Assimilation of Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter: Chi-Square Validated Results and Analysis of Variance and Correlation Dynamics - Pt. 2

A Kalman filter system designed for the assimilation of limb-sounding observations of stratospheric chemical tracers, which has four tunable covariance parameters, was developed in Part I (Menard et al. 1998) The assimilation results of CH4 observations from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Sounder instrument (CLAES) and the Halogen Observation Experiment instrument (HALOE) on board of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are described in this paper. A robust (chi)(sup 2) criterion, which provides a statistical validation of the forecast and observational error covariances, was used to estimate the tunable variance parameters of the system. In particular, an estimate of the model error variance was obtained. The effect of model error on the forecast error variance became critical after only three days of assimilation of CLAES observations, although it took 14 days of forecast to double the initial error variance. We further found that the model error due to numerical discretization as arising in the standard Kalman filter algorithm, is comparable in size to the physical model error due to wind and transport modeling errors together. Separate assimilations of CLAES and HALOE observations were compared to validate the state estimate away from the observed locations. A wave-breaking event that took place several thousands of kilometers away from the HALOE observation locations was well captured by the Kalman filter due to highly anisotropic forecast error correlations. The forecast error correlation in the assimilation of the CLAES observations was found to have a structure similar to that in pure forecast mode except for smaller length scales. Finally, we have conducted an analysis of the variance and correlation dynamics to determine their relative importance in chemical tracer assimilation problems. Results show that the optimality of a tracer assimilation system depends, for the most part, on having flow-dependent error correlation rather than on evolving the error variance.

Menard, Richard↗

A Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 km, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-mode1 integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Volcanic Climate Warming through Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks of SO2 Emissions

Volcanic flood basalt eruptions have been linked to or are contemporaneous with major climate disruptions, ocean anoxic events, and mass extinctions throughout at least the last 400M years of Earth’s history. Previous studies and recent history have shown that volcanically-driven climate cooling can occur through reflection of sunlight by H2SO4 aerosols, while longer-term climate warming can occur via CO2 emissions. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model to simulate a four-year duration volcanic SO2 emission of the scale of the Wapshilla Ridge member of the Columbia River Basalt eruption. Brief cooling from H2SO4 aerosols is outweighed by dynamically and radiatively driven warming of the climate through a three orders of magnitude increase in stratospheric H2O vapor.

Scott D Guzewich↗

A Reliable Earth Return System for Safe Recovery of Mars Samples

The objective of a Mars sample return mission is to bring selected Mars surface materials to Earth. Numerous approaches for the Earth-return segment have been analyzed including propulsive or aerocapture return to low-Earth orbit followed by Space Shuttle rendezvous and direct entry. Of these approaches, ballistic entry of a small capsule terminating in a ground landing has been shown to be the lowest risk strategy. Over the past two years, significant work has been performed towards development of a robust direct entry vehicle for Mars sample return. In June 1999, the NASA Planetary Protection Officer provided initial guidance to the former Mars Sample Return Project. The sample return phase of the mission was assigned a restricted Earth return planetary protection classification. The draft mission requirement states that the total mean probability of release of unsterilized Mars material into the Earth;s biosphere must be less than 1.0E-06 (1 in a million). This strict requirement drives the approach and design of the Earth return system. To meet this requirement, selection of the Earth return strategy and development of the Earth return system must be guided by risk, not performance, based decisions. An initial Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) was performed to address the direct entry Earth return system containment assurance reliability and to identify high-risk elements of this system. The results of this PRA identified risk elements that include thermal protection system performance during entry, spin-eject orientation and aerodynamic stability during entry, structural integrity under atmospheric deceleration and impact loads, and tracking/recovery of this system. This initial probabilistic risk quantification demonstrates that, with the proper development program, a prototypical direct entry design can satisfy the containment assurance reliability requirement. Through the current Mars Sample Return Advanced Technology Development effort, an extensive design, analysis, and test program is presently proceeding with the aim of reducing the containment assurance risk of this system. This technology development effort, guided by a continuing PRA, focuses on key risk areas of a direct entry Earth return system including: the thermal protection system, impact dynamics, structural performance, aerodynamic stability, and ground recovery. This development program will culminate in a system validation flight test, 1-2 years prior to launch of the flight system. This flight test would include the launch, entry, and recovery of a full-scale Earth return system, as a scientific validation of the key risk elements to verify nominal design performance. The results of the initial PRA suggested several dominant failure sequences that can be validated in a flight test. These include: demonstrating the thermal protection system reliability and performance during entry, demonstrating the spin-eject orientation and aero-dynamic stability during entry, demonstrating the structural integrity under atmospheric deceleration and impact loads, and demonstrating tracking and recovery of the Earth return system. This single test will directly address over 50% of the total containment assurance risk elements. This presentation will begin by presenting the relative risk of various Earth return strategies. The results of the initial probabilistic risk assessment will be presented followed by a discussion of the development accomplishments and plans for demonstration of a highly reliable direct entry Earth return system.

Braun, R.↗

Global changes in biogeochemical cycles in response to human activities

The main objective of our research was to characterize biogeochemical cycles at continental and global scales in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This characterization applied to both natural ecosystems and those disturbed by human activity. The primary elements of interest were carbon and nitrogen and the analysis sought to quantify standing stocks and dynamic cycling processes. The translocation of major nutrients from the terrestrial landscape to the atmosphere (via trace gases) and to fluvial systems (via leaching, erosional losses, and point source pollution) were of particular importance to this study. Our aim was to develop the first generation of Earth System Models. Our research was organized around the construction and testing of component biogeochemical models which treated terrestrial ecosystem processes, aquatic nutrient transport through drainage basins, and trace gas exchanges at the continental and global scale. A suite of three complementary models were defined within this construct. The models were organized to operate at a 1/2 degree latitude by longitude level of spatial resolution and to execute at a monthly time step. This discretization afforded us the opportunity to understand the dynamics of the biosphere down to subregional scales, while simultaneously placing these dynamics into a global context.

Moore, Berrien, III↗

Space observations for global and regional studies of the biosphere

The capability to make space-based measurements of Earth at high spatial and temporal resolutions, which would not otherwise be economically or practically feasible, became available just in time to contribute to scientific understanding of the interactive processes governing the total Earth system. Such understanding has now become essential in order to take practical steps which would counteract or mitigate the pervasive impact of the growing human population on the future habitability of the Earth. The paper reviews the rationale for using space observations for studies of climate and terrestrial ecosystems at global and regional scales, as well as the requirements for such observations for studies of climate and ecosystem dynamics. The present status of these developments is reported along with initiatives under way to advance the use of satellite observations for Earth system studies. The most important contribution of space observations is the provision of physical or biophysical parameters for models representing various components of the Earth system. Examples of such parameters are given for climatic and ecosystem studies.

Cihlar, J.↗

Electromagnetic Time and Wavelength Domain Predictions for Accreting Binary Black Holes

Accreting massive binary black holes in gaseous environments are keymulti-messenger sources for the LISA mission. We will present some ofthe latest predictions of the observational signatures of accreting binary black holes across the electromagnetic spectrum from the fieldand provide some of our own. In particular, we will provide a briefsummary of the progress made in our group to understand these systemstheoretically using high-performance simulations of generalrelativistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and dynamic spacetimes.Simulating these systems realistically is challenging asradiation-coupled MHD must be considered over large dynamic ranges inspace and time. Constraining our view to the circumbinary disk regionfirst, we will show how the evolution duration, accretion disk size,mass ratio, and thermodynamics model affect the structure andvariability of the accretion flow. We particularly emphasize how theseparameters influence the over-density feature, or "lump", which orbitsthe binary near the edge of the cavity, since it is responsible formost of the electromagnetic emission's variability---a key signatureof a system being a binary. Extending to smaller length scales, wewill report on simulations following accretion all the down to theevent horizons so that we may begin to investigate how black hole spinaffects mini-disk dynamics, accretion rate, and jet power. We willalso report on our radiative transfer predictions for how black holespin alters the spectral energy distribution of these systems.Wrapping up, we will itemize the remaining key theoreticaltechnologies and directions needed to be accomplished to betterunderstand these sources, and assess strategies for searching for themin the coming decade.

Scott C Noble↗

Retrieving the Balanced Winds on the Globe as a Generalized Inverse Problem

A generalized inverse technique is applied to retrieve two types of balanced winds that characterize the large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere: rotational winds based upon the linear balance equation, and divergent winds based upon the vorticity budget equation. Both balance equations are singular at or near the equator. The balance equations are transformed in spherical harmonic function space to an under-determined system, for which the scale-weighed least-squares solution consists of a sum of principal and singular components. The principal components represent the response to the source function for the regular eigenmodes, while the singular components are determined by the projection of an independent measurement on the singular eigenmodes. The method was tested with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in which a quasi-balance condition exists. A realistic balanced wind field is retrievable when the singular components are computed based upon the reanalyzed wind data.

Lu, Huei-Iin↗

Findings from the Supersonic Qualification Program of the Mars Science Laboratory Parachute System

In 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory Mission (MSL) will deploy NASA's largest extra-terrestrial parachute, a technology integral to the safe landing of its advanced robotic explorer on the surface. The supersonic parachute system is a mortar deployed 21.5 m disk-gap-band (DGB) parachute, identical in geometric scaling to the Viking era DGB parachutes of the 1970's. The MSL parachute deployment conditions are Mach 2.3 at a dynamic pressure of 750 Pa. The Viking Balloon Launched Decelerator Test (BLDT) successfully demonstrated a maximum of 700 Pa at Mach 2.2 for a 16.1 m DGB parachute in its AV4 flight. All previous Mars deployments have derived their supersonic qualification from the Viking BLDT test series, preventing the need for full scale high altitude supersonic testing. The qualification programs for Mars Pathfinder, Mars Exploration Rover, and Phoenix Scout Missions were all limited to subsonic structural qualification, with supersonic performance and survivability bounded by the BLDT qualification. The MSL parachute, at the edge of the supersonic heritage deployment space and 33% larger than the Viking parachute, accepts a certain degree of risk without addressing the supersonic environment in which it will deploy. In addition, MSL will spend up to 10 seconds above Mach 1.5, an aerodynamic regime that is associated with a known parachute instability characterized by significant canopy projected area fluctuation and dynamic drag variation. This aerodynamic instability, referred to as "area oscillations" by the parachute community has drag performance, inflation stability, and structural implications, introducing risk to mission success if not quantified for the MSL parachute system. To minimize this risk and as an alternative to a prohibitively expensive high altitude test program, a multi-phase qualification program using computation simulation validated by subscale test was developed and implemented for MSL. The first phase consisted of 2% of fullscale supersonic wind tunnel testing of a rigid DGB parachute with entry-vehicle to validate two high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools. The computer codes utilized Large Eddy Simulation and Detached Eddy Simulation numerical approaches to accurately capture the turbulent wake of the entry vehicle and its coupling to the parachute bow-shock. The second phase was the development of fluid structure interaction (FSI) computational tools to predict parachute response to the supersonic flow field. The FSI development included the integration of the CFD from the first phase with a finite element structural model of the parachute membrane and cable elements. In this phase, a 4% of full-scale supersonic flexible parachute test program was conducted to provide validation data to the FSI code and an empirical dataset of the MSL parachute in a flight-like environment. The final phase is FSI simulations of the full-scale MSL parachute in a Mars type deployment. Findings from this program will be presented in terms of code development and validation, empirical findings from the supersonic testing, and drag performance during supersonic operation.

EDL↗

Group-kinetic scaling as a basis for modeling large scale turbulence

It was found that new concepts and methods were needed to develop a statistical theory of turbulence. The group kinetic method was devised for the transformation of the dynamical system into a kinetic system as the basis for a statistical treatment of turbulence. Spectral structure is used as a basis for turbulence modeling.

Tchen, C. M.↗

Rotorcraft aeroelastic stability

Theoretical and experimental developments in the aeroelastic and aeromechanical stability of helicopters and tilt-rotor aircraft are addressed. Included are the underlying nonlinear structural mechanics of slender rotating beams, necessary for accurate modeling of elastic cantilever rotor blades, and the development of dynamic inflow, an unsteady aerodynamic theory for low-frequency aeroelastic stability applications. Analytical treatment of isolated rotor stability in hover and forward flight, coupled rotor-fuselage stability in hover and forward flight, and analysis of tilt-rotor dynamic stability are considered. Results of parametric investigations of system behavior are presented, and correlation between theoretical results and experimental data from small and large scale wind tunnel and flight testing are discussed.

Ormiston, Robert A.↗

Propagation experiments at Virginia Tech with the Olympus satellite

A major propagation experiment is in progress to measure atmospheric attenuation at 12, 20, and 30 GHz using the beacons of the Olympus satellite. The experiment uses a frequency-locked receiver system which locks to the 12-GHz beacon frequency and measures the signal strength of the coherent 20- and 30-GHz beacons in a 3-Hz bandwidth. The receiving system is augmented with radiometers in each beacon frequency band to set the clear-air attenuation levels of the beacon signals. Olympus propagation experiment objectives and the measurement system are described. Results from the measurement program will include fade statistics at all frequencies, attenuation scaling between frequencies, short baseline site diversity, and fade dynamics.

Pratt, T.↗

Design and Testing of the X-38 Spacecraft Primary Parafoil

In August of 1995 the NASA began testing large ram-air parafoils for potential use in the landing phase of spacecraft recovery. This effort eventually became a part of the X-38 project, a technology demonstrator for the International Space Station Emergency Crew Return Vehicle. This paper traces how the original parafoil, used in the U.S. Army Graded Precision Air Delivery System (GPADS), was modified to improve the initial deployment dynamics. A discussion of how test experience with 750 sq ft parafoils has been used to scale up to the full-scale 5500 sq ft and 7500 sq ft parafoils is presented. In particular, the development of two techniques that have greatly improved the repeatability of the parafoil initial deployment and decreased the first stage deployment dynamics are discussed: a first stage upper surface energy modulator and floor vents. Comparisons of trends and results from the various scale parachutes are presented as well as constraints that at times have driven the direction that the design has taken.

DESIGN OPTIMIZATION↗

Examining the Changing Roles and Responsibilities of Humans in Envisioned Future In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems

Advances in technology are enabling new concepts of operations that will trans-form aviation including increasingly autonomous capabilities to handle evolving complex dynamic ecosystems like those associated with Advanced Aerial Mobility. A major challenge is how to ensure today’s safety levels are maintained as the system scales for rapid detection and timely mitigation of safety issues. NASA has developed a concept of operation for In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS) that represents a system-of-system perspective on interconnected capabilities needed to proactively reduce risk in complex operational environments where unknown hazards may exist. As a result, NASA research priorities include under-standing how the balance between humans and automation changes in such envisioned systems, which may lead to novel human-machine interaction paradigms and human-autonomy teaming for informed contingency management.

Lawrence Prinzel↗

Free-Flight Dynamics of an Aeroshell/Drogue Parachute System

A free-flight test of a subscale aeroshell/drogue parachute model was conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center Vertical Spin Tunnel. Mass properties for the aeroshell model were dynamically scaled. This test simulated the flight of the Dragonfly mission spacecraft at an altitude of 18.4 km above the surface of Titan (Saturn’s largest moon). The aeroshell/drogue parachute model exhibited bimodal oscillatory behavior with sustained small- and large-amplitude modes depending on initial conditions. The effects of drogue parachute size, bridle geometry, and bridle rigidity on the aeroshell/drogue parachute dynamics were investigated. The large-amplitude oscillations seemed to be driven by the aeroshell aerodynamics, with bridle leg collapse being an enabling factor. If the bridle legs were rigid, large-amplitude oscillations were not sustainable.

Parachute↗

The M2 Proton Channel of Influenza Virus: How Does It Work?

The transport of protons across membranes is an essential process for both bioenergetics of modem cells and the origins of cellular life. All living systems make use of proton gradients across cell walls to convert environmental energy into a high-energy chemical compound, adenosine triphosphate (ATR), synthesized from adenosine diphosphate. ATR, in turn, is used as a source of energy to drive many cellular reactions. The ubiquity of this process in biology suggests that even the earliest cellular systems were relying on proton gradient for harvesting environmental energy needed to support their survival and growth. In contemporary cells, proton transfer is assisted by large, complex proteins embedded in membranes. The issue addressed in this study was: how the same process can be accomplished with the aid of similar, but much simpler molecules that could have existed in the protobiological milieu? The model system used in the study contained a bilayer membrane made of phospholipid, dimyristoylphosphatidylcholine (DMPC), which is a good model of the biological membranes focusing cellular boundaries. Both sides of the bilayer were surrounded by water which simulated the environment inside and outside the cell. Embedded in the membrane was a fragment of the Influenza-A M2 protein and enough sodium counterions to maintain system neutrality. This protein has been shown to exhibit remarkably high rates of proton transport and, therefore, is an excellent model to study the formation of proton gradients across membranes. The Influenza M2 protein is 97 amino acids in length, but a fragment 25 amino acids long, which contains a transmembrane domain of 19 amino acids flanked by 3 amino acids on each side, is sufficient to transport protons. Four identical protein fragments, each folded into a helix, aggregate to form small channels spanning the membrane. Protons are conducted through a narrow pore in the middle of the channel in response to applied voltage. This channel is large enough to contain water molecules, and is normally filled with water. In analogy to the mechanism of proton transfer in some other channels, it has been postulated that protons are translocated along the network of water molecules filling the pore of the channel. This mechanism, however, must involve an additional, important step because the channel contains four histidine amino acid residues, one from each of the helices, which are sufficiently large to occlude the pore and interrupt the water network. The histidine residues ensure channel selectivity by blocking transport of small such as sodium or potassium. They have been also implicated in gating protons due to the ability of each histidine to become positively charged by accepting an additional proton. Two mechanisms of gating have been proposed. In one mechanism, all four histidines acquire an additional proton and, due to repulsion between their positive charges, move away from one another, thus opening the channel. The alternative mechanism relies of the ability of protons to move between different atoms in a molecule (tautomerization). Thus, a proton is captured on one side of the gate while another proton is released from the opposite side, and the molecule returns to the initial state through tautomerization. The simulations were designed to test these two mechanisms. Large-scale, atomic-level molecular dynamics simulations of the channel, in which the histidine residues were in different protonation states revealed that all intermediate states of the system involved in the tautomerization mechanism are structurally stable and the arrangement of water molecules in the channel is conducive to the proton transport. In contrast, in the four-protonated state, postulated to exist in the gate-opening mechanism, the electrostatic repulsion between the histidine residues appears to be so large that the channel looses its structural integrity and one helix moves away from the remaining three. This result indicates that such a mechanism of proton transport is unlikely. The simulations revealed that translocation along a network of water molecules in the channel and tautomerization of the histidine residues in the M2 proteins in the most likely mechanism of proton transport. The results not only explain how a remarkably simple protein system can efficiently aid in the formation of proton gradients across cell walls, but also suggest how this system can be genetically re-engineered to become a directional, reversible proton pump. Such a pump can provide energy to laboratory-built models of simple cellular systems. If they were successfully constructed it would greatly advance our understanding of the beginnings of life and find important applications in medicine and pharmacology.

Pohorille, Andrew↗