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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27

Cauchy Drag Estimation For Low Earth Orbiters

Recent work on minimum variances estimators based on Cauchy distributions appear relevant to orbital drag estimation. Samples form Cauchy distributions which are part of a class of heavy-tailed distributions, are characterized by long stretches of fairly small variation, punctuated by large variations that are many times larger than could be expected from a Gaussian. Such behavior can occur when solar storms perturb the atmosphere. In this context, the present work describes an embedding of the scalar Idan-Speyer Cauchy Estimator to estimate density corrections, within an Extended Kalman Filter that estimates the state of a low Earth orbiter. In contrast to the baseline Kalman approach, the larger formal errors of the present approach fully and conservatively bound the predictive error distribution, even in the face of unanticipated density disturbances of hundreds of percent.

Low Earth↗

Bias Characterization, Vertical Interpolation, and Horizontal Interpolation for Distributed Wind Siting Using Mesoscale Wind Resource Estimates

Much like their counterparts in utility-scale wind energy, developers of industrial, small-scale and distributed wind turbine deployments need to understand and accurately characterize the wind resource to properly assess the power generation and financial ramifications during siting and planning. National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s WIND (Wind Integration National Dataset) Toolkit (WTK) provides a best-in-class wind resource dataset generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This dataset includes parameters such as the wind speed, wind direction, and temperature at various heights, plus atmospheric stability near the surface. This data is available at 2-km spatial resolution and five-minute temporal resolution across 7 years, from 2007 to 2013 through a publicly accessible API interface. The Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) project seeks to extend this dataset to allow long term resource estimates and leverage it to better equip distributed wind equipment manufacturers, owner-operators, and installation professionals with better tools for practical siting applications. In this report, we present the results from our investigation within the TAP project focused on characterization of bias in WTK-based wind speed estimates and evaluation of vertical and horizontal interpolation techniques. We discuss the tradeoffs between different techniques and their combinations, as well as describe the lower bounds we determine for the studied validation errors. While the specific estimates we present are specific to WTK and the validation dataset we have chosen for this investigation (NREL's Wind Resource Meteorological Database), the overall analysis and the studied techniques are general enough to be applied to a broader set of wind datasets, both simulation-based and observational.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

High-Resolution Near-Surface Imaging at the Basin Scale Using Dark Fiber and Distributed Acoustic Sensing: Toward Site Effect Estimation in Urban Environments

Near-surface seismic structure, particularly the shear wave velocity (V s ), can strongly affect local site response, and should be accurately estimated for ground motion prediction during seismic hazard assessment. The Imperial Valley (California), occupying the southern end of the Salton Trough, is a seismically active basin with thick surficial lacustrine sedimentary deposits. In this study, we utilize ambient noise records and local earthquake events for high-resolution near-surface characterization and site effect estimation with an unlit fiber-optic telecommunication infrastructure (dark fiber) in Imperial Valley by using the distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technique. We apply ambient noise interferometry to retrieve coherent surface waves from DAS records, and evaluate performances of three different surface wave methods on DAS ambient noise dispersion imaging. We develop a quality control workflow to improve the dispersion measurement of noisy portions of the DAS data set by using a data selection strategy. Using the joint inversion of both the fundamental mode and higher overtones of Rayleigh waves, a high resolution two-dimensional (2D) V s structure down to 70 m depth is obtained. We successfully achieve an improved V s 30 (the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m) model with higher spatial-resolution and reliability compared to the existing community model for the area. We also explore the potential for utilizing DAS earthquake events for site amplification estimation. The preliminary results reveal a clear anti-correlation between the approximated site response and the V s 30 profile. In conclusion, our results indicate the potential utility of DAS deployed on dark fiber for near-surface characterization in appropriate contexts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Distribution System Behind-the-Meter DERs: Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Control

This paper summarizes the three-year technical activities of the IEEE Task Force (TF) on behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DERs): estimation, uncertainty quantification, and control. The potential grid services from BTM DERs are discussed in detail. The paper also reviews the state-of-the-art for BTM DERs visibility, uncertainty quantification, and, optimization and control. Furthermore, different aspects of the market structures associated with BTM DERs are covered, including emerging market and business models. Finally, needs and recommendations are provided for additional areas such as system protection, computing capabilities, algorithm development, market structure design, cyberinfrastructure and security, and hardware and software developments.

behind-the-meter↗

Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution

Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions, 2

The problem of obtaining numerically maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions is addressed. In recent literature, a certain successive approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, is shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, a general iterative procedure is introduced, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. With probability 1 as the sample size grows large, it is shown that this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. The step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the separation of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

Peters, B. C., Jr.↗

How reliable is distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis? A dual regression-classification perspective on DRT estimation, interpretation, and accuracy

The distribution of relaxation times (DRT) has gained increasing attention and adoption in recent years as a versatile method for analyzing electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data obtained from complex devices like fuel cells, electrolyzers, and batteries. The DRT deconvolutes the impedance without a priori specification of a generative model, which is especially useful for interpretation and model selection when the governing principles of the system under study are not fully understood. However, DRT estimation is an ill-posed inversion problem that must be addressed with a subjective choice of regularization and tuning, which leaves substantial risk of misleading interpretations of EIS data. In this work, we suggest a new classification view of the DRT inversion to clarify DRT estimation and interpretation. We introduce a dual regression-classification framework that unifies the classification and regression views of the DRT inversion with wide-reaching implications for DRT analysis. The dual framework is employed to demonstrate a new kind of DRT inversion algorithm and develop novel evaluation metrics that capture previously ignored aspects of DRT accuracy. These approaches are applied to both synthetic data and experimental spectra collected from a protonic ceramic fuel cell and a lithium-ion battery to illustrate their broad utility. The dual inversion algorithm shows promising performance for accurate DRT estimation and autonomous model identification, while the dual evaluation approach produces metrics that meaningfully assess the strengths and risks of DRT algorithms. Here this work provides valuable insight for both practical application of the DRT to experimental data and further development of EIS analysis methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spline-based distributed system identification with application to large space antennas

A parameter and state estimation technique for distributed models is demonstrated through the solution of a problem generic to large space antenna system identification. Assuming the position of the reflective surface of the maypole (hoop/column) antenna to be approximated by the static two-dimensional, stretched-membrane partial differential equation with variable-stiffness coefficient functions, a spline-based approximation procedure is described that estimates the shape and stiffness functions from data set observations. For given stiffness functions, the Galerkin projection with linear spline-based functions is applied to project the distributed problem onto a finite-dimensional subspace wherein algebraic equations exist for determining a static shape (state) prediction. The stiffness functions are then parameterized by cubic splines and the parameters estimated by an output error technique. Numerical results are presented for data descriptive of a 100-m-diameter maypole antenna.

Banks, H. T.↗

Multi-head physics-informed neural networks for learning functional priors and uncertainty quantification

In numerous applications, the integration of prior knowledge and historical information is essential, particularly for tasks requiring the solution of ordinary or partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) in data-sparse or noisy environments. For instance, achieving accurate solutions to time-dependent PDEs with limited initial condition measurements necessitates an effective strategy for embedding prior knowledge. Hard-parameter sharing architectures in neural networks (NNs) have demonstrated success in both traditional and scientific machine learning domains, facilitating the learning of informative representations. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel, yet efficient, method to enhance physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) by incorporating a multi-head structure that enables the learning of functional priors from both empirical data and governing physical laws. This prior information can then be used to address data sparsity and high-level noise in solving ODE/PDE problems with uncertainty quantification (UQ). The approach, termed Multi-Head PINN (MH-PINN), consists of a shared body NN and multiple head NNs, each corresponding to an individual PINN instance. Our framework for functional prior learning is carried out in two stages: (1) training the MH-PINNs to develop a shared body NN alongside multiple head NNs, and (2) employing these trained head NNs to estimate a prior distribution through a normalizing flow-based density estimator. The learned functional prior can then be applied as a regularization mechanism in deterministic contexts or as an informative prior within a Bayesian inference framework, aiding in the resolution of subsequent ODE/PDE tasks. We evaluate the efficacy of MH-PINNs across five benchmark problems, including a high-dimensional parametric PDE, all characterized by data sparsity or substantial noise levels. Our findings reveal that MH-PINNs deliver accurate solutions and robust UQ, demonstrating adaptability across a range of complex and challenging scenarios.

Bayesian inference↗

Uniqueness and global optimality of the maximum likelihood estimator for the generalized extreme value distribution

The three-parameter generalized extreme value distribution arises from classical univariate extreme value theory and is in common use for analysing the far tail of observed phenomena, yet important asymptotic properties of likelihood-based estimation under this standard model have not been established. In this paper, we prove that the maximum likelihood estimator is global and unique. An interesting secondary result entails the uniform consistency of a class of limit relations in a tight neighbourhood of the true shape parameter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PV Hosting Capacity Estimation: Experiences with Scalable Framework; Preprint

Hosting capacity is an indication of the amount of photovoltaics (PV) can be hosted in a distribution system. This paper presents a framework for estimating distributed PV hosting capacity at scale. We first analyze the key challenges of performing relevant large scale simulation including computational and modeling challenges. Then, we develop two python-based software tools in order to conduct repeatable distribution analyses: Distribution Integration Solution Cost Options (DISCO) for configuring and analyzing simulations, and JADE for parallelizing jobs on HPC clusters. A case study of hosting capacity estimation for SMART-DS SFO 2000+ synthetic feeders is used to demonstrate the capability of the developed framework and tools. The framework and tools can help utilities assess the overall hosting capacity of their service territory, through which the overall upgrade cost can be better planned in order to integrate more PV in the future.

distributed energy resources↗

Top-of-Atmosphere Shortwave Broadband Observed Radiance and Estimated Irradiance over Polar Regions from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Instruments on Terra

Empirical angular distribution models for estimating top-of-atmosphere shortwave irradiances from radiance measurements over permanent snow, fresh snow and sea ice are developed using CERES measurements on Terra. Permanent snow angular distribution models depend on cloud fraction, cloud optical thickness, and snow brightness. Fresh snow and sea ice angular distribution models depend on snow and sea ice fraction, cloud fraction, cloud optical thickness, and snow and ice brightness. These classifications lead to 10 scene types for permanent snow and 25 scene types for fresh snow and sea ice. The average radiance over clear-sky permanent snow is more isotropic with satellite viewing geometry than that over overcast permanent snow. On average, the albedo of clear-sky permanent snow varies from 0.65 to 0.68 for solar zenith angles between 60$logical and\circ$ and 80 deg, while the corresponding albedo of overcast scenes varies from 0.70 to 0.73. Clear-sky permanent snow albedos over Antarctica estimated from two independent angular distribution models are consistent to within 0.6%, on average. Despite significant variability in sea ice optical properties with season, the estimated mean relative albedo error is -1 % for very dark sea ice and 0.1% for very bright sea ice when albedos derived from different viewing angles are averaged. The estimated regional root-mean-square (RMS) relative albedo error is 5.6% and 2.6% when the sea ice angular distribution models are applied to a region that contains very dark and very bright sea ice, respectively. Similarly, the estimated relative albedo bias error for fresh snow is -0.1% for very dark snow.

Kato, S.↗

Straight Line Geometric Path Lengths – Examples and Distributions

The straight line geometric path distribution of different shapes is a fundamental parameter of any a detector sensitive and in the presence of high energy charged particles such as galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Knowledge of the straight line path distribution can yield first estimates of the expected energy distribution due to minimum ionizing particles. This predicted shape provides a valuable interpretation tool of spectra of particles that are unlikely to stop in a detector and may present a background or desired signal. These quantities have been calculated many times before including analytically, Coleman (1973), and even in Geant4 software, (Agostinelli, Allison et al. 2003, Santin, Ivanchenko et al. 2005). For this work we utilize the Rapid Adaptable Multi-threaded Particle and Radiation Transport (RAMPART) simulation framework and collect some common shapes all with the same volume to serve as a reference of path lengths and instructions manual for computing other shapes as desired.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Longitudinal curvature and displacement speed effects on incompressible laminar boundary layers.

The title problem is considered for the case of flow past a circular cylinder placed normal to a uniform mainstream with Reynolds numbers from 40 to 200. Implicit finite difference numerical solutions are obtained for a set of boundary-layer equations that account for the second order effects associated with surface curvature and displacement speed. It was found that both of these contributors have a significant influence on the internal structure of the viscous region and that an accurate estimate of the surface pressure distribution is essential for estimating the surface shear stress.

Werle, M. J.↗

Airborne Aerosol Closure Studies During PRIDE

The Puerto Rico Dust Experiment (PRIDE) was conducted during June/July of 2000 to study the properties of Saharan dust aerosols transported across the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean Islands. During PRIDE, the NASA Ames Research Center six-channel (380 - 1020 nm) airborne autotracking sunphotometer (AATS-6) was operated aboard a Piper Navajo airplane alongside a suite of in situ aerosol instruments. The in situ aerosol instrumentation relevant to this paper included a Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP-100) and a Passive Cavity Aerosol Spectrometer Probe (PCASP), covering the radius range of approx. 0.05 to 10 microns. The simultaneous and collocated measurement of multi-spectral aerosol optical depth and in situ particle size distribution data permits a variety of closure studies. For example, vertical profiles of aerosol optical depth obtained during local aircraft ascents and descents can be differentiated with respect to altitude and compared to extinction profiles calculated using the in situ particle size distribution data (and reasonable estimates of the aerosol index of refraction). Additionally, aerosol extinction (optical depth) spectra can be inverted to retrieve estimates of the particle size distributions, which can be compared directly to the in situ size distributions. In this paper we will report on such closure studies using data from a select number of vertical profiles at Cabras Island, Puerto Rico, including measurements in distinct Saharan Dust Layers. Preliminary results show good agreement to within 30% between mid-visible aerosol extinction derived from the AATS-6 optical depth profiles and extinction profiles forward calculated using 60s-average in situ particle size distributions and standard Saharan dust aerosol refractive indices published in the literature. In agreement with tendencies observed in previous studies, our initial results show an underestimate of aerosol extinction calculated based on the in situ size distributions relative to the extinction obtained from the sunphotometer measurements. However, a more extensive analysis of all available AATS-6 and in situ size distribution data is necessary to ascertain whether the preliminary results regarding the degree of extinction closure is representative of the entire range of dust conditions encountered in PRIDE. Finally, we will compare the spectral extinction measurements obtained in PRIDE to similar data obtained in Saharan dust layers encountered above the Canary Islands during ACE-2 (Aerosol Characterization Experiment) in July 1997. Thus, the evolution of Saharan dust spectral properties during its transport across the Atlantic can be investigated, provided the dust origin and microphysical properties are found to be comparable.

Redemann, Jens↗

Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution

Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗