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Environmental Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population Biology of Greater Prairie-Chickens

1. We investigated the impacts of wind power development on the demography, movements, and population genetics of Greater Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) at three sites in northcentral and eastern Kansas for a 7-year period. Only 1 of 3 sites was developed for wind power, the 201MW Meridan Way Wind Power Facility at the Smoky Hills site in northcentral Kansas. Our project report is based on population data for prairie chickens collected during a 2-year preconstruction period (2007-2008), a 3-year postconstruction period (2009-2011) and one final year of lek surveys (2012). Where relevant, we present preconstruction data from our field studies at reference sites in the northern Flint Hills (2007-2009) and southern Flint Hills (2006-2008). 2. We addressed seven potential impacts of wind power development on prairie chickens: lek attendance, mating behavior, use of breeding habitat, fecundity rates, natal dispersal, survival rates, and population numbers. Our analyses of pre- and postconstruction impacts are based on an analysis of covariance design where we modeled population performance as a function of treatment period, distance to eventual or actual site of the nearest wind turbine, and the interaction of these factors. Our demographic and movement data from the 6-year study period at the Smoky Hills site included 23 lek sites, 251 radio-marked females monitored for 287 bird-years, and 264 nesting attempts. Our genetic data were based on genotypes of 1,760 females, males and chicks that were screened with a set of 27 microsatellite markers that were optimized in the lab. 3. In our analyses of lek attendance, the annual probability of lek persistence during the preconstruction period was ~0.9. During the postconstruction period, distance to nearest turbine did not have a significant effect on the probability of lek persistence. However, the probability of lek persistence increased from 0.69 at 0 m to 0.89 at 30 km from turbines, and most abandoned lek sites were located <5 km from turbines. Probability of lek persistence was significantly related to habitat and number of males. Leks had a higher probability of persistence in grasslands than agricultural fields, and increased from ~0.2 for leks of 5 males, to >0.9 for leks of 10 or more males. Large leks in grasslands should be a higher priority for conservation. Overall, wind power development had a weak effect on the annual probability of lek persistence. 3. We used molecular methods to investigate the mating behavior of prairie chickens. The prevailing view for lek-mating grouse is that females mate once to fertilize the clutch and that conspecific nest parasitism is rare. We found evidence that females mate multiple times to fertilize the clutch (8-18% of broods, 4-38% of chicks) and will parasitize nests of other females during egg-laying (~17% of nests). Variable rates of parentage were highest in the fragmented landscapes at the Smoky Hills field site, and were lower at the Flint Hills field site. Comparisons of the pre- and postconstruction periods showed that wind energy development did not affect the mating behaviors of prairie chickens. 4. We examined use of breeding habitats by radio-marked females and conducted separate analyses for nest site selection, and movements of females not attending nests or broods. The landscape was a mix of native prairie and agricultural habitats, and nest site selection was not random because females preferred to nest in grasslands. Nests tended to be closer to turbines during the postconstruction period and there was no evidence of behavioral avoidance of turbines by females during nest site selection. Movements of females not attending nests or broods showed that females crossed the site of the wind power development at higher rates during the preconstruction period (20%) than the postconstruction period (11%), and that movements away from turbines were more frequent during the postconstruction period. Thus, wind power development appears to affect movements in breeding habitats but not nest site selection of female prairie chickens during the breeding season. 5. We tested the effects of wind power development on five components of female fecundity: timing of clutch initiation, clutch size of first nests and renests, nest survival, and hatchability of eggs. Average date of clutch initiation was 26 April, clutch size was 12.7 and 10.6 eggs for first nests and renests, probability of nest survival was low at 0.18, but egg hatchability was high at 0.79. Wind power development had no impact on reproductive effort or nesting success, and all five components of fecundity were not related to treatment period or distance to turbine. Nest survival was the main factor limiting reproductive output of female prairie chickens and most losses were due to predation. Daily nest survival was strongly related to vegetative cover at the nest. Changes to rangeland management practices that would double nesting cover from 2.5 to 5 dm would triple the probability of nest survival from 0.17 to 0.52. Grass and forb cover had weak positive effects on daily nest survival whereas shrub cover, proximity to woodlands, and recent rainfall had negative effects. Reproductive performance of prairie chickens is low in managed rangelands in northcentral Kansas and efforts to improve range conditions and reduce predator activity would aid recovery of prairie chicken populations. 6. We used molecular methods to investigate patterns of natal dispersal in prairie chickens. High rates of nest failure limited the number of young that we could sample. Direct detections of natal dispersal were limited because survival of newly hatched chicks to become adults were low and because we were unable to detect dispersal distances outside of our study area. Direct observations of natal movements were limited and were inadequate to make conclusions about the potential impacts of wind energy development on natal dispersal. Spatial correlograms of genetic distance among males at leks were a more sensitive measure of population structure, and indicated a weak effect of wind energy development on the spatial genetic structure of prairie chickens. 7. We tested the effects of wind power development on female survival with time-to-event models, and on residual body mass of males with analyses of covariance. Distance to turbine and the interaction of distance and treatment period had no effect on female survival. Contrary to predictions of negative impacts of wind power development, the probability of female was lowest during the preconstruction period (0.274) and increased significantly during the postconstruction period (0.543). Inspection of hazard functions indicated that the difference in annual survival could be attributed to a higher risk of mortality during the lekking season in the preconstruction period. We suggest that wind power development may have improved ecological conditions for prairie chickens by disrupting the foraging behavior of diurnal raptors that kill prairie chickens at lek sites. In support of this idea, raptor kills tended to be farther from turbines during the postconstruction period whereas mammalian kills were closer. Analyses of the major causes of mortality did not support our hypothesis because the odds of raptor predation were greater after development was completed. Most mortality losses of radio-marked females were due to predation, and losses to collision mortality or harvest were rare events. Low rates of natural mortality during fall and winter imply that harvest is likely to be additive mortality in prairie chickens. Wind energy development reduced the residual body mass of male Greater Prairie-Chickens at lek sites near turbines. Low values of residual body mass could have a negative impact on individual survival or fecundity rates, or may be related to predation risk and flight performance of males displaying at open lek sites. 8. We tested for impacts of wind power development on population numbers of prairie chickens with monitoring of male numbers at leks, and with genetic measures of population structure. Lek counts indicated that wind power development did not affect the population size of prairie chickens. Peak counts of males at leks were recorded the first year after construction was completed and the highest rates of population change were observed during the interval when the wind power facility was constructed. Population numbers of prairie chickens near and distant from turbines appeared to covary in parallel, probably because bird numbers were linked by dispersal movements. Estimates of population viability based on genetic diversity, effective population size and rates of population exchange did not show annual changes and were unaffected by wind development during our study. Estimates of relatedness among males at the same and different leks suggested that wind power development has either reduced dispersal rates or changed settlement patterns, leading to higher rates of relatedness among males displaying at the same lek site. 9. Greater Prairie-Chickens were not strongly affected by wind power development in Kansas. Negative impacts of wind power development included a trend for reductions in lek persistence near turbines, behavioral avoidance of turbines by females during their breeding season movements, and changes in the genetic structure of males at leks that were consistent with reduced dispersal or recruitment rates. We found no impacts of wind power development on nest site selection, female reproductive effort or nesting success, or population numbers. Positive impacts of wind power development included an increase in female survival rates. We hypothesized that the unexpected increase in female survival was related to changes in trophic interactions and disruption of the foraging behavior of raptors that kill prairie chickens at lek site. 10. Research funding for this project included a grant from the 20% Wind by 2030 Program of the Department of Energy (this final report), and grants from the Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism, the National Fish and Wildlife Federation, and initial funding from the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative. Research products from data collected during the preconstruction period have included five peer-reviewed research articles and two PhD dissertations at Kansas State University. Additional manuscripts are in review for possible publication in 2013-2014.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Development of Thermoacoustic Sensors for Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors

This Final Report refers to the project “Development of Thermoacoustic Sensors for Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor Systems”, which was led by Westinghouse Electric Company (Westinghouse) and carried out in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and University of Pittsburgh. Thermo-acoustic Power Sensors (TAPS) are self-powered, wireless sensors envisioned for measuring key parameters, such as local temperature and neutron flux, in a nuclear reactor core. This project was intended to specifically investigate their applicability to Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFR). TAPS are non-invasive (wireless) and passive (self-powered) devices. The passivity derives from their ability to use conditions that “naturally” exist in a nuclear reactor, such as gamma and neutron flux, as power sources. They generate oscillating pressure waves (i.e., sound waves) which, with a frequency and amplitude dependent upon these conditions, can travel through the core and associated structures, and reach the outside of the reactor vessel where a properly designed network of receivers can detect and interpret them. These receivers require a very small amount of power which, during loss of power events, can be provided for example by harvesting gamma radiation energy, thus resulting in a monitoring system that can function both during normal operation and during loss of power events. The project aimed at TAPS development through a series of tasks which are listed and briefly discussed as follows. TASK 1 – Sensor hardware design Subtask 1a: Assessment of sensor applications to SFRs Subtask 1b: Development of sensor functional requirements Subtask 1c: Definition of sensor hardware design specifications Task description: TAPS design was informed by considerations on their application (Subtask 1a), both the ultimate one in an SFR and the actual one in the ANL testing facilities that was intended to be used in support of the project. Considerations were made to identify optimum sensor design features that optimize the sensor size, materials, and output signal, for installation inside an SFR core. These considerations led to the development of Functional Requirements (Subtask 1b) and Design Requirements (Subtask 1c). TASK 2 – Sensor Hardware Manufacture Subtask 2a: Sensor hardware construction drawing development Subtask 2b: Sensor manufacture and assembly Task description: TAPS technical drawings were developed (Subtask 2a) using the Design Requirements established under Task 1. Subsequently, in spite of some problems which ultimately caused the program to be delayed, TAPS manufacturing was completed based on drawings (Subtask 2b). TASK 3 – Development of TAPS Signal Measurement System and TAPS Testing in Water Subtask 3a: Design, assembly and testing of signal measurement system, and TAPS testing in water Subtask 3b: Signal prediction-correction methodology development Task description: An assessment was performed on the techniques that can potentially be used to detect the signals emitted by the TAPS, e.g. a fiber-optic based acoustic signal measurement system, a laser vibrometer system, or an accelerometer-based system. The most suited technology, i.e. the accelerometer-based system, was developed further, and tested in water (Subtask 3a). Moreover, efforts were made to develop the methodology required to determine the actual system temperature and neutron flux distribution using differences between the measured and predicted TAPS responses (Subtask 3b). TASK 4 – Sensor System Testing in Sodium Subtask 4a: Test plan development Subtask 4b: Design, assembly and testing in small-scale sodium facility Subtask 4c: Design, assembly and testing in large-scale sodium and structures facility Task description: Upon proper test plan development (Subtask 4a), the fabricated TAPS was planned to be tested in sodium, by using two sodium facilities at ANL having different size and different purpose. The Under Sodium Viewing (USV) small-scale facility was intended to be used to investigate the effect of sodium on the sensor and its performance (Subtask 4b). The Mechanism Engineering Test Loop (METL) large-scale facility was instead intended to be used to assess the additional effect of prototypical SFR structures, such as fuel assembly mockup or parts of the core restrain structure, on sensor performance (Subtask 4c). As discussed in Section 3.2.2.7, unexpected issues during the TAPS manufacturing process resulted in some activities being delayed, with the TAPS and USV facility developed to the point to be ready for testing in sodium, however without the possibility to actually perform such testing (including the testing in METL) due to the end of the program’s performance period. Overall, through the development and testing (in water only) of two TAPS devices (a First-Generation TAPS followed by an optimized Second-Generation TAPS), the project confirmed the capability of this technology to generate acoustic signals proportional to temperature, which can be detected through a network of accelerometers identified as the best-suited type of receivers for acoustic signal detection. Moreover, the project also developed a computational model to predict the characteristics of the acoustic signals being generated, which combines thermal analysis of the TAPS with Finite Element Modeling (FEM)-aided acoustic characterization of the system. This model was benchmarked against experimental data collected during the project and, although general agreement was obtained, some limitations of the modeling methods were identified, which require additional development. Additional testing is needed in order to assess the effect, on TAPS operation and performance, of environmental changes resulting from the transition from water to liquid sodium. Such testing, which is suggested to be performed in the future, should look specifically at 1) both the effect resulting from the different thermoacoustic behavior of sodium (relative to water) and the effects of higher temperature on TAPS performance, and 2) the performance of the sensor-receiver system when multiple TAPS are used simultaneously and prototypical reactor structures are positioned in the testing environment. The latter testing is needed to assess the effects that potential signal attenuation/ distortion phenomena, as well as potential interference between signals emitted simultaneously, have on the performance of the technology for ultimate application in a nuclear reactor.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Development of Production-Intent Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Using Advanced Lithium-Ion Battery Packs with Deployment to a Demonstration Fleet

The primary goal of this project was to speed the development of one of the first commercially available, OEM-produced plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV). The performance of the PHEV was expected to double the fuel economy of the conventional hybrid version. This vehicle program incorporated a number of advanced technologies, including advanced lithium-ion battery packs and an E85-capable flex-fuel engine. The project developed, fully integrated, and validated plug-in specific systems and controls by using GM’s Global Vehicle Development Process (GVDP) for production vehicles. Engineering Development related activities included the build of mule vehicles and integration vehicles for Phases I & II of the project. Performance data for these vehicles was shared with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The deployment of many of these vehicles was restricted to internal use at GM sites or restricted to assigned GM drivers. Phase III of the project captured the first half or Alpha phase of the Engineering tasks for the development of a new thermal management design for a second generation battery module. The project spanned five years. It included six on-site technical reviews with representatives from the DOE. One unique aspect of the GM/DOE collaborative project was the involvement of the DOE throughout the OEM vehicle development process. The DOE gained an understanding of how an OEM develops vehicle efficiency and FE performance, while balancing many other vehicle performance attributes to provide customers well balanced and fuel efficient vehicles that are exciting to drive. Many vehicle content and performance trade-offs were encountered throughout the vehicle development process to achieve product cost and performance targets for both the OEM and end customer. The project team completed two sets of PHEV development vehicles with fully integrated PHEV systems. Over 50 development vehicles were built and operated for over 180,000 development miles. The team also completed four GM engineering development Buy-Off rides/milestones. The project included numerous engineering vehicle and systems development trips including extreme hot, cold and altitude exposure. The final fuel economy performance demonstrated met the objectives of the PHEV collaborative GM/DOE project. Charge depletion fuel economy of twice that of the non-PHEV model was demonstrated. The project team also designed, developed and tested a high voltage battery module concept that appears to be feasible from a manufacturability, cost and performance standpoint. The project provided important product development and knowledge as well as technological learnings and advancements that include multiple U.S. patent applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Integrative Curriculum Development in Nuclear Education and Research Vertical Enhancement Program

Using a vertical education enhancement model, a Nuclear Education and Research Vertical Enhancement (NERVE) program was developed. The NERVE program is aimed at developing nuclear engineering education and research to 1) enhance skilled workforce development in disciplines relevant to nuclear power, national security and medical physics, and 2) increase the number of students and faculty from underrepresented groups (women and minorities) in fields related to the nuclear industry. The program uses multi-track training activities that vertically cut across the several education domains: undergraduate degree programs, graduate schools, and post-doctoral training. In this paper, we present the results of an integrative curriculum development in the NERVE program. The curriculum development began with nuclear content infusion into existing science, engineering and technology courses. The second step involved the development of nuclear engineering courses: 1) Introduction to Nuclear Engineering, 2) Nuclear Engineering I, and 2) Nuclear Engineering II. The third step is the establishment of nuclear engineering concentrations in two engineering degree programs: 1) electrical engineering, and 2) mechanical engineering. A major outcome of the NERVE program is a collaborative infrastructure that uses laboratory work, internships at nuclear facilities, on-campus research, and mentoring in collaboration with industry and government partners to provide hands-on training for students. The major activities of the research and education collaborations include: - One-week spring training workshop at Brookhaven National Laboratory: The one-week training and workshop is used to enhance research collaborations and train faculty and students on user facilities/equipment at Brookhaven National Laboratory, and for summer research internships. Participants included students, faculty members at Alabama A and M University and research collaborators at BNL. The activities include 1) tour and introduction to user facilities/equipment at BNL that are used for research in room-temperature semiconductor nuclear detectors, 2) presentations on advances on this project and on wide band-gap semiconductor nuclear detectors in general, and 3) graduate students' research presentations. - Invited speakers and lectures: This brings collaborating research scientist from BNL to give talks and lectures on topics directly related to the project. Attendance includes faculty members, researchers and students throughout the university. - Faculty-students team summer research at BNL: This DOE and National Science Foundation (NSF) program help train students and faculty members in research. Faculty members go on to establish research collaborations with scientists at BNL, develop and submit research proposals to funding agencies, transform research experience at BNL to establish and enhance reach capabilities at home institution, and integrate their research into teaching through class projects and hands-on training for students. The students go on to participate in research work at BNL and at home institution, co-author research papers for conferences and technical journals, and transform their experiences into developing senior and capstone projects. - Grant proposal development: Faculty members in the NERVE program collaborate with BNL scientists to develop proposals, which often help to get external funding needed to expand and sustain the continuity of research activities and supports for student's wages and scholarships (stipends, tuition and fees). - Faculty development and mentoring: The above collaboration activities help faculty professional development. The experiences, grants, joint publications in technical journals, and supervision of student's research, including thesis and dissertation research projects, contribute greatly to faculty development. Senior scientists at BNL and senior faculty members on campus jointly mentor junior faculty members to enhance their professional growth. - Graduate thesis and dissertation research: Brookhaven National Laboratory provides unique opportunities and outstanding research resources for the NERVE program graduate research. Scientists from BNL serve in master's degree thesis and PhD dissertation committees, where they play active roles in the supervision of the research. (authors)

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Dose-finding studies in drug development for rare genetic diseases

The small patient populations inherent to rare genetic diseases present many challenges to the traditional drug development paradigm. One major challenge is generating sufficient data in early phase studies to inform dose selection for later phase studies and dose optimization for clinical use of the drug. However, optimizing the benefit-risk profile of drugs through appropriate dose selection during drug development is critical for all drugs, including those being developed to treat rare diseases. Recognizing the challenges of conducting dose finding studies in rare disease populations and the importance of dose selection and optimization for successful drug development, we assessed the dose-finding studies and analyses conducted for drugs recently approved for rare genetic diseases. Of the 40 marketing applications for new molecular entity (NME) drugs and biologics approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration for rare genetic diseases from 2015 to 2020, 21 (53%) of the development programs conducted at least one dedicated dose-finding study. In addition, the majority of drug development programs conducted clinical studies in healthy subjects and included population pharmacokinetic and exposure–response analyses; some programs also conducted clinical studies in patient populations other than the disease for which the drug was initially approved. The majority of primary endpoints utilized in dedicated dose-finding studies were biomarkers, and the primary endpoint of the safety and efficacy study matched the primary endpoint used in the dose finding study in 9 of 13 (69%) drug development programs where primary study endpoints were assessed. Our study showed that NME drug development programs for rare genetic diseases utilize multiple data sources for dosing information, including studies in healthy subjects, population pharmacokinetic analyses, and exposure–response analyses. In addition, our results indicate that biomarkers play a key role in dose-finding studies for rare genetic disease drug development programs. Our findings highlight the need to develop study designs and methods to allow adequate dose-finding efforts within rare disease drug development programs that help overcome the challenges presented by low patient prevalence and other factors. Furthermore, the frequent reliance on biomarkers as endpoints for dose-finding studies underscores the importance of biomarker development in rare diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Association of Maternal Social Relationships With Cognitive Development in Early Childhood

This study examines how different types of social network structures are associated with early cognitive development in children. Objectives To assess how social relationships and structures are associated with early cognitive development and to elucidate whether variations in the mother’s social networks alter a child’s early cognitive development patterns. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study used data from 1082 mother-child pairs in the University of Tennessee Health Science Center–Conditions Affecting Neurocognitive Development and Learning and Early Childhood project to examine the association between networks of different levels of complexity (triad, family, and neighborhood) and child cognitive performance after adjustment for the mother’s IQ, birth weight, and age, and the father’s educational level. The final model was adjusted for the household poverty level. Data were collected from December 2006 through January 2014 and analyzed from October through November 2018. Exposures The child-mother relationship, child-mother-father triad, family setting, child’s dwelling network, mother’s social support network, and neighborhood networks. Main Outcomes and Measures Measure of cognitive development of the child using Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID) at 2 years of age. Results Of 1082 participants, 544 (50.3%) were males and 703 (65.1%) were African American; the mean (SD) age was 2.08 (0.12) years. Large family size had a negative association with early cognitive development, with a mean 2.21-point decrease in BSID coefficient score (95% CI, 0.40 to 4.02; P = .01). Mother’s social support network size was positively associated early cognitive development, with a mean 0.40-point increase in BSID coefficient score (95% CI, 0.001 to 0.80; P = .05). Knowing many neighbors was not statistically significantly associated with early cognitive development, with a mean 1.39-point increase in BSID coefficient score (95% CI, -0.04 to 2.83; P = .06). Conclusions and Relevance The findings suggest that maternal social relationships are associated with cognitive development in children and that social relationships beyond the mother-child-father triad are significantly associated with children’s cognitive development. This study investigates the environmental influences on child health outcomes and, specifically, how early cognitive development is associated with social networks for the primary caregiver.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development: Preprint

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Under-capacitated and over-powered? Rural austerity and asymmetrical negotiating relationships in US wind energy development

Though rural local governments are central actors in renewable energy development, local governments in the United States (US) remain systematically under-funded. This paper considers what the manifestations of austerity in local governments broadly and rural localities specifically mean for renewable energy development and for energy transitions. Drawing on a survey of 262 elected county officials with experience with wind energy in eight US states, this paper asks how local officials understand the impacts of wind development, how local governments are involved in wind energy negotiations, how the resources and expertise needed to navigate negotiations are distributed among counties, and analyze the relationship between local capacity, access to resources, and involvement in negotiations. We find that local officials express simultaneously affective and material concerns with the impacts of wind development and see negotiations with the developer as central to realizing local benefits. However, the expertise and staffing needed to negotiate with developers is less accessible to poorer or sparsely populated counties, and counties with lower overall revenues have narrower scopes of negotiation, and counties incre. Our results suggest that uneven rural capacity heightens an already asymmetrical relationship between localities and developers. In analyzing how infrastructure developments are shaped by relationships between localities and developers that are conditioned by austerity and (under)capacity, this paper contributes to and bridges scholarly discussions on rural austerity, rescaling, and renewable energy transitions. These results challenge conventional wisdoms around centralizing energy siting processes, contextualize popular and academic debates about opposition to renewable energy development, and highlight the need for rural reinvestment to realize meaningfully participatory energy developments.

Elmallah, Salma↗

Corrigendum to ‘Under-capacitated and over-powered? Rural austerity and asymmetrical negotiating relationships in US wind energy development’ [J. Rural Stud., 119 (2025) 1–14]

The authors regret that there is an incomplete sentence in the abstract of the article, and request that the portion “, and counties incre” be deleted from the abstract (found at the end of the sentence beginning with “However …”). The portion to be deleted is underlined and bolded below. The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused. Current abstract: Though rural local governments are central actors in renewable energy development, local governments in the United States (US) remain systematically under-funded. This paper considers what the manifestations of austerity in local governments broadly and rural localities specifically mean for renewable energy development and for energy transitions. Drawing on a survey of 262 elected county officials with experience with wind energy in eight US states, this paper asks how local officials understand the impacts of wind development, how local governments are involved in wind energy negotiations, how the resources and expertise needed to navigate negotiations are distributed among counties, and analyze the relationship between local capacity, access to resources, and involvement in negotiations. We find that local officials express simultaneously affective and material concerns with the impacts of wind development and see negotiations with the developer as central to realizing local benefits. However, the expertise and staffing needed to negotiate with developers is less accessible to poorer or sparsely populated counties, and counties with lower overall revenues have narrower scopes of negotiation, and counties incre. Our results suggest that uneven rural capacity heightens an already asymmetrical relationship between localities and developers. In analyzing how infrastructure developments are shaped by relationships between localities and developers that are conditioned by austerity and (under)capacity, this paper contributes to and bridges scholarly discussions on rural austerity, rescaling, and renewable energy transitions. These results challenge conventional wisdoms around centralizing energy siting processes, contextualize popular and academic debates about opposition to renewable energy development, and highlight the need for rural reinvestment to realize meaningfully participatory energy developments.

Elmallah, Salma↗

Research and Development of High-Power and High-Energy Electrochemical Storage Devices

The accomplishments and technology progressmade during the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC26- 05NT42403 (duration: July 11, 2005 through April 30, 2014, funded for $\$$125 million in cost- shared research) are summarized in this Final Technical Report for a total of thirty-seven (37) collaborative programs organized by the United States Advanced Battery Consortium, LLC (USABC). The USABC is a partnership, formed in 1991, between the three U.S. domestic automakers Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors, to sponsor development of advanced high-performance batteries for electric and hybrid electric vehicle applications. The USABC provides a unique opportunity for developers to leverage their resources in combination with those of the automotive industry and the Federal government. This type of pre-competitive cooperation minimizes duplication of effort and risk of failure, and maximizes the benefits to the public of the government funds. A major goal of this program is to promote advanced battery development that can lead to commercialization within the domestic, and as appropriate, the foreign battery industry. A further goal of this program is to maintain a consortium that engages the battery manufacturers with the automobile manufacturers and other key stakeholders, universities, the National Laboratories, and manufacturers and developers that supply critical materials and components to the battery industry. Typically, the USABC defines and establishes consensus goals, conducts pre-competitive, vehicle-related research and development (R&D) in advanced battery technology. The R&D carried out by the USABC is an integral part of the DOE’s effort to develop advanced transportation technologies that will significantly improve fuel economy, comply with projected emissions and safety regulations, and use domestically produced fuels. The USABC advanced battery development plan has the following three focus areas: 1. Existing technology validation, implementation, and cost reduction. 2. Identification of the next viable technology with emphasis on the potential to meet USABC cost and operating temperature range goals. 3. Support high-risk, high-reward battery technology R&D. Specific to the Cooperative Agreement DE- FC26-05NT42403, addressing High-Energy and High Power Energy Storage Technologies, the USABC focus was on understanding and addressing the following factors (listed in priority of effort): • Cost: Reducing the current cost of lithium- ion batteries (currently about 2-3 times the FreedomCAR target ($\$$20/kW). • Low Temperature Performance: Improving the discharge power and removing lithium plating during regenerative braking. • Calendar Life: Achieving 15-year life and getting accurate life prediction. • Abuse Tolerance: Developing a system level tolerance to overcharge, crush, and high temperature exposure. This Final Technical Report compilation is submitted in fulfillment of the subject Cooperative Agreement, and is intended to serve as a ready-reference for the outcomes of following eight categories of projects conducted by the USABC under award from the DOE’s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy ) Vehicle Technologies Program: USABC DoE Final Report – DoE Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-95EE50425 8 Protected Information 1. Electric Vehicle (EV) (Section A of this report) 2. Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) (Section B 3. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) (Section C) 4. Low-Energy Energy Storage Systems (LEESS) (Section D) 5. Technology Assessment Program (TAP) (Section E) 6. Ultracapacitors (Section F) 7. 12 Volt Start-Stop (Section G) 8. Separators (Section H) The report summarizes the main areas of activity undertaken in collaboration with the supplier community and the National Laboratories. Copies of the individual supplier final reports are available upon request. Using project gap analysis versus defined USABC goals in each area, the report documents known technology limits and provides direction on future areas of technology and performance needs for vehicle applications. The report was developed using information such as program plans, gap analysis charts, quarterly reports and final project reports submitted by the developers. The public benefit served by this USABC program is that it continues the development of critical advanced battery technology that is needed to make electric, hybrid electric, and fuel cell vehicles attractive to a wide segment of the vehicle market. This will allow for a substantial savings in petroleum fuel use as these vehicles are introduced into the nation’s transportation system. It will also allow a sharp reduction in automotive air pollution emissions in critical areas that are currently classified as non-attainment by the Environmental Protection Agency. This program will also help ensure the long term health and viability of the U.S. Battery and Ultracapacitor Manufacturing Industry. The goals of eight categories of projects follow and summarization of each of the project’s accomplishments are in sequence of the list above.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Long-Term Monitoring of Utility-Scale Solar Energy Development and Application of Remote Sensing Technologies: Summary Report

In anticipation of increased utility-scale solar energy development over the next 20 to 50 years, federal agencies and other organizations have identified a need to develop comprehensive long-term monitoring programs specific to solar energy development. Increasingly, stakeholders are requesting that federal agencies, such as the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management (BLM), develop rigorous and comprehensive long-term monitoring programs. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is assisting the BLM in developing an effective long-term monitoring plan as required by the BLM Solar Energy Program to study the environmental effects of solar energy development. The monitoring data can be used to protect land resources from harmful development practices while at the same time reducing restrictions on utility-scale solar energy development that are determined to be unnecessary. The development of a long-term monitoring plan that incorporates regional datasets, prioritizes requirements in the context of landscape-scale conditions and trends, and integrates cost-effective data collection methods (such as remote sensing technologies) will translate into lower monitoring costs and increased certainty for solar developers regarding requirements for developing projects on public lands. This outcome will support U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Sunshot Program goals. For this reason, the DOE provided funding for the work presented in this report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

FINAL REPORT - Development of High Pressure Hydrogen Storage Tank for Storage and Gaseous Truck Delivery

The “Development of High Pressure Hydrogen Storage Tanks for Storage and Gaseous Truck Delivery” project [DE-FG36-08GO18062] was initiated on 01 July 2008. Hexagon Lincoln (then Lincoln Composites) received grant funding from the U.S. Department of Energy to support the design and development of an improved bulk hauling and storage solution for hydrogen in terms of cost, safety, weight and volumetric efficiency. The development of this capability required parallel development and qualification of large all-composites pressure vessels, a custom ISO container to transport and store said tanks, and performance of trade studies to identify optimal operating pressure for the system. Qualification of the 250 bar TITAN® module was completed in 2009 with supervision from the American Bureau of Shipping [ABS], and the equipment has been used internationally for bulk transportation of fuel gases since 2010. Phase 1 of the project was successfully completed in 2012 with the issuance of USDOT SP 14951, the special permit authorizing the manufacture, marking, sale and use of TITAN® Mobile Pipeline® equipment in the United States. The introduction of tube trailers with light weight composite tankage has meant that 2 to 3 times as much gaseous fuel can be transported with each trip. This increased hauling efficiency offers dramatically reduced operating costs and has enabled a profitable business model for over-the-road compressed natural gas delivery. The economic drivers of this business opportunity vary from country to country and region to region, but in many places gas distribution companies have realized profitable operations. Additional testing was performed in 2015 to characterize hydrogen-specific operating protocols for use of TITAN® systems in CHG service at 250 bar. This program demonstrated that existing compression and decompression methodologies can efficiently and safely fill and unload lightweight bulk hauling systems. Hexagon Lincoln and U.S. DOE agreed to continue into Phase 2 of the project without pursuing the development of higher pressure capabilities as originally planned. At 250 bar, development of equipment for hydrogen transport is supported by strong activity in the adjacent natural gas transportation sector. Trade studies performed since 2011 indicate optimization of hauling efficiency and system cost for hydrogen transport at about 350 bar (5076 psi). However, due to reduced efficiency of compression of natural gas above 250 bar, 350 bar operation is not an attractive option for natural gas transportation. The CHG market is not developed at this time, and it is difficult to forecast the arrival of significant revenues. On the investment side, the cost to fully qualify a large tank module at 350 bar is estimated at $3MM to $5MM. There is insufficient CHG market definition to support a stand-alone business case for this investment without near term revenue in the adjacent CNG transportation market. Therefore development of a 350 bar TITAN® system was deferred and not pursued under this project. Hexagon Lincoln continues to support the development of tankage and equipment for operation at 350 bar and above; with 700 bar vehicle tanks and 950 bar tanks for ground storage applications. Phase 2 activities were focused on reducing system cost, increasing system capacity, increasing system safety and characterization of polymer material performance specific to hydrogen pressure vessel usage. With the successful launch of TITAN® modules and trailers in natural gas transportation, over 600 units have been produced through the end of 2016, resulting in improved purchasing power for raw materials and manufactured components. This has allowed Hexagon Lincoln to approach the current project goals for system cost. At $590/kg of compressed hydrogen delivered, the system cost of the baseline TITAN® module is below the project’s 2015 target of $730/kg H2 delivered, and very close to the project’s 2020 target of $575/kg H2 delivered. [Based on product pricing in 1Q2017.] Emphasis was placed on configuration of larger capacity systems within the vehicle weights and dimensions allowed on federal and state highways in the United States and other countries. These activities resulted in the design and development of integrated tube trailer systems that have increased delivery capacities by 45%. The hydrogen delivery capacity of our largest system is 845 kg, exceeding the project’s 2015 target of 700 kg H2 delivered. Emerging technologies offering improvement of the safety systems used on the equipment were investigated, with particular focus on improving the reliability and cost of the emergency venting system for fire protection. Finally, investment in our materials laboratory improved detection and characterization of hydrogen-induced damage in polymer materials, supporting the development of operational protocols to avoid damage to pressure vessel liners and valve components.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Lab-Scale Development of a Solid Sorbent for CO 2 Capture Process for Coal-Fired Power Plants

It is increasingly clear that CO 2 capture and sequestration (CCS) must play a critical role in curbing worldwide CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. Development of these technologies to cost-effectively remove CO 2 from coal-fired power plants is very important to mitigating the impact these power plants have within the world’s power generation portfolio. Currently, conventional CO 2 capture technologies, such as aqueous-monoethanolamine based solvent systems, are prohibitively expensive and if implemented could result in a 75 to 100% increase in the cost of electricity for consumers worldwide. Solid sorbent CO 2 capture processes – such as RTI’s 3rd Generation Solid Sorbent CO 2 Capture Process – are promising alternatives to conventional, liquid solvents. Supported amine sorbents – of the nature RTI has developed – are particularly attractive due to their potential for high CO 2 loadings, excellent stability over multiple cycles, reduced corrosivity/volatility and a potential to reduce the regeneration energy needed to carry out CO 2 capture. The remaining challenges for these sorbent processes have provided the framework for the project team’s research and development and target for advancing the technology beyond lab-scale testing. Previous work in this area has failed to adequately address various technology challenges such as sorbent stability and regenerability, sorbent scale-up, improved physical strength and attrition-resistance, proper heat management and temperature control, proper solids handling, as well as the proper coupling of process engineering advancements that are tailored for a promising sorbent technology. Under a cooperative agreement with the US Department of Energy, and part of NETL’s CO 2 Capture Program, RTI has led an effort to address and mitigate the challenges associated with solid sorbent CO 2 capture. The overall objective of this project was to mitigate the technical and economic risks associated with the performance and scale-up of solid sorbent-based CO 2 capture processes, enabling subsequent larger pilot demonstrations and ultimately commercial deployment. An integrated development approach has been a key focus of this project in which sorbent development, process development, and economic analyses have informed each of the other development processes. Development efforts have focused on developing novel hybrid solids-based CO 2 capture sorbents and improving their performance stability, refining process engineering and design, and evaluating the viability of the technology through detailed economic analyses. Sorbent advancements have led to a next generation, commercially-viable CO 2 capture sorbent exhibiting performance stability in various gas environments and a physically strong fluidizable form. The team has reduced sorbent production costs and optimized the production and scale-up of novel metal-organic framework (MOF) hybrid solids-based CO 2 capture sorbents, fluidizable sorbents. Refinement of the process engineering and design at the lab-scale research unit has demonstrated promising CO 2 capture performance in simulated coal-fired flue gas conditions. Long-term testing has informed the project team on the process conditions needed to operate a solids-based system for optimal performance. Data collected from all phases of testing has been used to develop a detailed techno-economic assessment of RTI’s technology. These detailed analyses show that RTI’s technology has significant economic advantages over current amine scrubbing and potential to achieve the DOE’s Carbon Capture Program’s goal of >90% CO 2 capture rate at a cost of almost $40/tonne CO 2 captured by 2025. Through this integrated technology development approach, the project team has advanced RTI’s 3rd generation CO 2 capture technology to TRL-3, according to the DOE/FE definitions for Technology Readiness Levels. At a broader level, this project has advanced the whole of the solid sorbent CO 2 capture field, with advancements in process engineering and design, technical risk mitigation, sorbent scale-up optimization, and an understanding of the commercial viability and applicability of solid sorbent CO 2 capture technologies for the U.S. existing fleet of coal-fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacture Nb1Zr Development

Next generation fission and fusion nuclear reactors require materials that can withstand operating temperatures greater than 500 °C, neutron irradiation doses of up to 200 displacements per atom (dpa), and potentially corrosive coolants such as the alkali liquid metals sodium, lithium, and NaK (Na33K eutectic alloy). Refractory alloys, such as Nb1Zr (Nb-1wt%Zr) and Molybdenum alloy TZM (Mo-0.5wt%Ti-0.08wt%Zr) have been traditionally considered viable candidates for advanced fission and fusion reactor concepts. However, it is relatively difficult to generate complex geometries of interest from these alloys using traditional manufacturing methods. In addition, there needs to be a concentrated effort to address refractory metal challenges at elevated temperature operation. In order to generate complex geometries of interest, modern manufacturing techniques are considered to increase the technological readiness level (TRL), cost-effectiveness, and schedule savings. This work focused on the continued development of laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) to improve both design flexibility, evaluate microstructure and properties, and ultimately accelerate the TRL and qualification of these processes and alloys for components to potentially be put into service. Niobium alloy Nb1Zr was identified through a down-selection process outlined in previous reports as a candidate to develop in L-PBF AM. Historically, Nb1Zr had been explored for high temperature fast spectrum fission reactors for both terrestrial and space applications. Molybdenum alloy TZM has also been considered for these reactor concepts due to exceptional high-temperature strength, creep resistance, and stability under irradiation. L-PBF AM of TZM has previously been investigated at LANL under the Microreactor program, NASA, ORNL, and in academia. However, due to the crack prone nature of TZM, L-PBF AM of TZM resulted in significant microcracking and additional development is required to pursue viable maturation. Other AM methods have been found to be more successful in printing TZM, and those alternatives approaches are discussed in this effort. The efforts detailed in this report focused on continued development of Nb1Zr through L-PBF and development of TZM via L-PBF and electron powder bed fusion (E-PBF). The objective of this work was to further the development of these AM techniques for the chosen refractory alloys, elucidating and addressing associated challenges through characterization of several demonstration builds. At LANL, Nb1Zr builds were completed using an EOS M290 and M400 machines, and a refractory alloy-dedicated L-PBF system, the Xact Metal XM200G, was installed. The XM200G primary purpose was to do the Nb1Zr parameter development process; however, due to difficulties associated with the machine installation and qualification process, it was decided to pivot development to the larger M400 and M290 machines. Although the supply of Nb1Zr powder was limited, it was sufficient to generate sub-scale metallographic specimens for the purpose of parameter development. This was first accomplished on the EOS M400 then the M290 due to machine schedule availability. Further development of TZM has been initiated at the University of Texas El Paso (UTEP) under contract with LANL to use both a heated build envelope L-PBF machine and E-PBF machine that have been found in the literature to mitigate microcracking. UTEP was provided with TZM powder and build plates to support parallel TZM parameter development across both machines. As part of the contract, UTEP will also be conducting microstructural characterization once optimized process parameters have been identified. The optimized process parameters for each machine will be used to generate a series of metallographic, mechanical, and surface finish specimens for subsequent characterization and testing. In the next section, we provide a detailed discussion of the methodology used for investigating the feasibility of leveraging these alloys for use in advanced reactor applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of the Licensing Procedure and Regulatory Framework for the Spent Fuel Storage facility in Korea - 16423

The Public Engagement Commission on SNF management (PECOS) published the recommendation report on the spent fuel management of Korea in June, 2015. Based on this report, the future national policy for spent fuel management of Korea has been established, taking into consideration the national/international trends on policy and technology development. Regardless of the recommendation report of PECOS, Spent fuel storage casks are necessary in Korea. Therefore, various types of spent fuel storage casks are now being developed by Korea vendors. For example, Concrete storage casks and dual purpose metal casks are now under development by the KORAD (Korea Radioactive waste agency) for future use in the interim storage facility. Unfortunately, there is no independent licensing procedure for spent fuel storage casks in Nuclear Safety Act (NSA) because is the casks are considered an integral part of the interim storage facility safety equipment. Furthermore, the definition of radioactive waste in the NSA was changed recently. Now, spent fuel is separated from the definition of 'radioactive waste'. Spent fuel can only become radioactive waste by the decision through the meeting of the relative ministers of Korea government. For that reason, the licensing procedure for interim spent fuel storage facilities was separated from the current 'disposal facility, etc.' in accordance with the article 63 of NSA. The aim of this study is to develop the licensing procedure for the storage cask, and also to develop a revised draft of interim storage facility procedure within the NSA. Once this independent licensing procedure on the spent fuel storage cask is introduced to the NSA, it is expected that developers or operators can develop and commercialize the storage cask in Korea. In this study, an independent licensing procedure for the spent fuel storage facility was developed including the storage cask licensing procedure for the NSA. The procedure was composed of the permit for construction and operation of interim storage facility, criteria for permit, inspection criteria, periodic safety review, and decommissioning criteria, etc. The detailed contents of these requirements were also developed to introduce the regulatory framework for the interim storage facility. Particularly, periodic safety review and decommissioning criteria were developed in accordance with the recommendation of IRRS (International Regulatory Review Service) of IAEA. The developed licensing procedure for spent fuel storage facility will be introduced in NSA in response to the revised definition of NSA and the recommendation report of PECOS. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Distribution Development for the RDX Regional Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20385

Representing uncertainty in model inputs often means finding a balance between uncertainty and physical reality. Developing wide distributions may seem conservative in principle, but this approach may lead to unrealistic model results. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of stochastic inputs presents many challenges, especially if the data available are limited or have limited relevance to the site. Relationships among these inputs may also be important to represent but are typically complex or difficult to define. Often special adjustments must be made to account for reduced credibility in particular data. If parameters are strongly related to one another, a correlation structure may be developed for input to the model. Other techniques such as regression models may be used to incorporate relationships between the information available and the desired parameters. The process of developing distributions must consider details of the model in terms of what the distribution is meant to represent. This paper uses the example of a probabilistic fate and transport model for hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) in the regional aquifer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). For many parameters, a single draw is applied to all space and time over which the model is run, for a single iteration. This simplification is often made for many reasons, and can often be beneficial, but also adds additional complexity in the distribution development process. Defining the distributional goals as they relate to the modeling process is an important step, which should take place prior to evaluation of the data. Usually, the distributions developed are meant to characterize the average value of the parameter over the spatial and temporal domain of the model. Distribution development requires consideration of many sources of information on the parameter where available, ideally from multiple references. Examples of different sources include data from different references but also from different conditions, measurement methods, or experimental types. Depending on these conditions and the reliability or relevance of particular references, different sources of data may each contribute valuable information but have varying relevance to the site. In these cases, weighting data unequally is a useful way to incorporate this information. As an example, aqueous dispersivity data are available for a variety of rock types. Only a few values are available for the desired rock type, and this is not enough to develop a distribution. Therefore, dispersivity values from other rock types are included in distribution development but are down-weighted such that the best data have the most influence on the distribution developed. In another case, K{sub d} distributions in the model are meant to represent a known composition of multiple soil types. Data from these materials are weighted accordingly to develop a distribution for the weighted average K{sub d} across soil types. Other cases include varying reliability of different sources, and weighting data according to the confidence in these sources. In some cases, input parameters are correlated with one another. An example is advective porosity, which is positively correlated with total porosity and must be less than total porosity. Paired data with both parameters must exist to discern the relationship between the two parameters and if it is necessary to build a correlation structure into the model. In general, correlated parameters may be represented in the model by a multivariate distribution, or perhaps more desirably, capturing the correlation within the developed distributions which may be treated as independent from one another. In the example of porosity, this can be done by transforming advective porosity into a proportion of total porosity which may be drawn independently from the distribution of total porosity. This paper explores how complex data and correlations can be incorporated to meet the distributional goals of the model, using the RDX regional model as a detailed example. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Systems approaches to integrated solid waste management in developing countries

Highlights: ► Five drivers led developed countries to current solid waste management paradigm. ► Many unique factors challenge developing country solid waste management. ► Limited transferability of developed country approaches to developing countries. ► High uncertainties and decision stakes call for post-normal approaches. ► Systems thinking needed for multi-scale, self-organizing eco-social waste systems. - Abstract: Solid waste management (SWM) has become an issue of increasing global concern as urban populations continue to rise and consumption patterns change. The health and environmental implications associated with SWM are mounting in urgency, particularly in the context of developing countries. While systems analyses largely targeting well-defined, engineered systems have been used to help SWM agencies in industrialized countries since the 1960s, collection and removal dominate the SWM sector in developing countries. This review contrasts the history and current paradigms of SWM practices and policies in industrialized countries with the current challenges and complexities faced in developing country SWM. In industrialized countries, public health, environment, resource scarcity, climate change, and public awareness and participation have acted as SWM drivers towards the current paradigm of integrated SWM. However, urbanization, inequality, and economic growth; cultural and socio-economic aspects; policy, governance, and institutional issues; and international influences have complicated SWM in developing countries. This has limited the applicability of approaches that were successful along the SWM development trajectories of industrialized countries. This review demonstrates the importance of founding new SWM approaches for developing country contexts in post-normal science and complex, adaptive systems thinking.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗