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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Global Net Methane Emissions From Terrestrial Ecosystems Using a Mechanistically Based Biogeochemistry Model

Quantification of methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands and its sinks from uplands is still fraught with large uncertainties. Here, a methane biogeochemistry model was revised, parameterized, and verified for various wetland ecosystems across the globe. The model was then extrapolated to the global scale to quantify the uncertainty induced from four different types of uncertainty sources including parameterization, wetland type distribution, wetland area distribution, and meteorological input. We found that global wetland emissions are 212 ± 62 and 212 ± 32 Tg CH4 year -1 (1Tg = 10 12 g) due to uncertain parameters and wetland type distribution, respectively, during 2000–2012. Using two wetland distribution data sets and three sets of climate data, the model simulations indicated that the global wetland emissions range from 186 to 212 CH 4 year -1 for the same period. The parameters were the most significant uncertainty source. After combining the global methane consumption in the range of -34 to -46 Tg CH 4 year -1 , we estimated that the global net land methane emissions are 149–176 Tg CH 4 year -1 due to uncertain wetland distribution and meteorological input. Spatially, the northeast United States and Amazon were two hotspots of methane emission, while consumption hotspots were in the Eastern United States and eastern China. During 1950–2016, both wetland emissions and upland consumption increased during El Niño events and decreased during La Niña events. This study highlights the need for more in situ methane flux data, more accurate wetland type, and area distribution information to better constrain the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Analysis of Multipactor Dynamics via Dynamic Mode Decomposition

Multipactor effect is a performance-limiting kinetic plasma effect that can occur in high-power microwave and radio frequency (RF) devices. Multipactor effect is of special concern in vacuum or near-vacuum conditions such as those in particle accelerators and spaceborne devices. In this work, we present a data-driven reduced-order model (ROM) based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) for modeling of multipactor effects. We study multipactor effects and the resulting nonlinear harmonic generation by processing high-fidelity data generated from electromagnetic particle-in-cell (EMPIC) simulations using the DMD algorithm. We also investigate time-delay embedding extensions of DMD with improved generalizability and accuracy for modeling the electron plasma current density behavior. Here, the results show that DMD provides valuable insights into multipactor phenomena by extracting relevant modal spatiotemporal patterns and frequencies. In addition, DMD offers the potential to time extrapolate EMPIC simulations at a minimal cost, thereby reducing overall simulation time.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Label Assist: Personalized Travel Models for Longitudinal Data Collection

Understanding travel behavior is crucial to transportation decarbonization. OpenPATH is an open-source mobility platform which collects and analyzes human travel behavior at the individual level. The mobile application passively senses trips and prompts users to label them. However, users find the labeling process burdensome; less than half the trips are typically labeled, making much of the data unusable in aggregate analyses of mobility patterns. Prior work has addressed the response fatigue challenge through automated mode inference using sensor data, but sensors cannot capture all aspects of travel behavior. We explore an alternative approach in which we leverage prior user input to predict travel choices in novel trips. We first explore trip clustering methods and develop a novel two-step pipeline using DBSCAN and SVMs to extract realistic geospatial clusters. We then propose two strategies to predict trip labels: (i) clustering trips and extrapolating labels for similar trips, and (ii) random forest classification. The random forest approach is able to achieve - $70-80% accuracy (purpose: 72%, mode: 79%, replaced mode: 81%). These novel approaches to trip classification allow us to increase the rate of user labeling by suggesting predicted labels to be verified by the user. Unlabeled trips can also contribute to aggregate analyses, using label predictions and their associated confidences as a substitute. While there exist other travel survey apps with the ability to infer travel choices, to our knowledge, this is the first paper to describe such a supervised system and rigorously evaluate it.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of machine learning (ML), specifically neural networks, has grown significantly and has spurred research in its applicability to digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C). While ML models have shown promise in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of using such algorithms has not been adequately assessed. Failures of ML integrated systems are not well understood, and the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness in these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) [1] and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) [2], they indicate that trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier and will play a vital role in the safe, accountable, and secure operation of intelligent systems. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a dynamic model-agnostic method to quantify the relative reliability of AI/ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution (OOD) detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that most ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but experience significant performance degradation at extrapolation. The method, referenced as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets which can used to the relative reliability of AI/ML predictions. LADDR is then demonstrated on a feedforward neural network based digital twin used for the prediction of safety significant factors during a loss-of-flow transient. LADDR is used to demonstrate how training data can be used as evidence to support the relative reliability of ML/AI predictions enhancing the overall trustworthiness of the system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temperature Uncertainty Modeling with Proxy Structural Data as Geostatistical Constraints for Well Siting: An Example Applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aim of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations . The data used to support the modeling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modeling, the latter considered "secondary" data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally likely temperature models (i.e., realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: Vprior and entropy. Vprior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e., linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g., dilation versus distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, Vprior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with highe r probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comp arison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

3D temperature modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Life Models for Li-Ion Batteries Using Penalized Regression and Bilevel Optimization

Reduced-order physics-based life models are extremely useful for rapidly predicting battery state-of-health and for simulating battery lifetime in arbitrary aging conditions. However, identification of well-parameterized models is difficult. This is because, for maximum usefulness in predicting lifetime under a variety of conditions, aging test data exhibits many degradation mechanisms, which all need to be accurately modeled. However, because aging tests are time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-format batteries, a minimum of tests are conducted while probing many stress factors. Building a well-parameterized model is then very challenging: an under-parameterized model will neglect critical degradation modes, and an over-parameterized model will extrapolate poorly to new testing conditions. To complicate this matter, the functional form of the model for any individual degradation rate can be very difficult to identify. In this work, the statistical tools of penalized regression and bilevel optimization are used to help identify both the functional forms of and optimize the parameters of reduced-order life models, accelerating identification of robust models. Model robustness is demonstrated through traditional statistics methods of cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification through bootstrap resampling and Monte-Carlo simulation, and simulation of real-world use cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for predicting steady-state single-phase natural circulation

The validation of system analysis codes for nuclear reactor systems is required for the development and application of these computational tools. Designed as a comprehensive system analysis code for advanced nuclear reactors, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 requires validation of its physics model for capturing single-phase natural circulation behavior. To support the validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1, high-precision experiments are performed capturing steady-state single-phase natural circulation on a scaled facility with comprehensive instrumentation. In this work, dedicated tests are performed quantifying the critical modeling parameters, and a single-phase natural circulation benchmark dataset is obtained with well-documented uncertainty and comprehensive facility description. The validation is then performed against the dataset examining the capability of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in simulating steady-state single-phase natural circulation. The experimental facility is modeled in the candidate code. Solution verification is performed using Richardson-extrapolation-based estimators which quantify and restrict numerical errors from discretization. Input uncertainty provided by the benchmark dataset is forward propagated through the candidate code, quantifying the output uncertainty in a Monte Carlo approach. The composition of the output uncertainty is also quantified through a variance-based sensitivity analysis. With the uncertainty quantified for each individual condition, a detailed comparison between the simulation results and experimental data is performed covering the whole dataset. The results show consistent agreement for all primary parameters. The current validation activity provides a valuable benchmark dataset for the validation of system analysis codes in capturing single-phase natural circulation and demonstrates satisfactory prediction capability of SAS4A/SASSYS1 for steady-state single-phase natural circulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving equations of state calibrations in the toroidal DAC—The case study of molybdenum

We report an updated isothermal equation of state (EoS) of molybdenum (Mo) obtained by compression in beveled and toroidal diamond-anvil cells (DACs). For an improved compression environment, we developed a copper (Cu) pressure-transmitting medium (PTM) for the toroidal diamond-anvil cell samples, as it is a soft metal compared to Mo with a well calibrated EoS. A Ne PTM was used for the conventional beveled DAC samples. The unit-cell volumes of Mo were measured to 336(1) GPa in the Cu PTM and 231.2(6) GPa in the Ne PTM at room temperature. We additionally calculated elastic stiffness and compliance constants and evaluated the uniaxial stress of Mo and Cu with pressure. A new EoS for Mo is presented from data collected in all sample environments and compared to our theoretical predictions as well as previous compression studies of Mo. The (200) lattice plane of Mo produced the lowest volumes across the pressure range of this study for all compression environments, suggesting that it is less affected by nonhydrostatic stresses in the DAC compared to the other observed diffraction planes. The presented Mo EoS is compatible with extrapolations of EoS fits of Mo in helium (He) within ~1% at 330 GPa. Results from this work demonstrate that compressing a sample in a softer metal in the toroidal DAC can improve the compression environment and result in measured sample volumes comparable to those collected in noble-gas media at multi-megabar conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temperature uncertainty modelling with proxy structural data as geostatistical constraints for well siting: an example applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural geology information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aims of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations. The data used to support the modelling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modelling (distance to fault, distance to fault intersections and terminations, Coulomb stress change and dilation tendency), the latter considered ‘secondary’ data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally-likely temperature models (i.e. realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: V prior and entropy. V prior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because of the dipping ellipsoid shape created and that the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e. linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g. dilation v. distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, V prior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with higher probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comparison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robust training of machine learning interatomic potentials with dimensionality reduction and stratified sampling

Abstract Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) enable accurate simulations of materials at scales beyond that accessible by ab initio methods and play an increasingly important role in the study and design of materials. However, MLIPs are only as accurate and robust as the data on which they are trained. Here, we present DImensionality-Reduced Encoded Clusters with sTratified (DIRECT) sampling as an approach to select a robust training set of structures from a large and complex configuration space. By applying DIRECT sampling on the Materials Project relaxation trajectories dataset with over one million structures and 89 elements, we develop an improved materials 3-body graph network (M3GNet) universal potential that extrapolates more reliably to unseen structures. We further show that molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with the M3GNet universal potential can be used instead of expensive ab initio MD to rapidly create a large configuration space for target systems. We combined this scheme with DIRECT sampling to develop a reliable moment tensor potential for titanium hydrides without the need for iterative augmentation of training structures. This work paves the way for robust high-throughput development of MLIPs across any compositional complexity.

Qi, Ji (ORCID:0000000158089931)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of spatiotemporal smoothing on the two-plasmon–decay instability

Higher levels of hot electrons from the two-plasmon–decay instability are observed when smoothing by spectral dispersion (SSD) is turned off in directly driven inertial confinement fusion experiments at the Omega Laser Facility. This finding is explained using a hot-spot model based on speckle statistics and simulation results from the laser–plasma simulation environment. The model accurately reproduces the relative increase in hot-electron activity at two different drive intensities, although it slightly overestimates the absolute number of hot electrons in all cases. Extrapolating from the current ≈ 360-GHz system while adhering to the logic of the hot-spot model suggests that larger SSD bandwidth should significantly mitigate hot-electron generation, and legacy 1-THz OMEGA experiments appear to support this conclusion. These results demonstrate that it is essential to account for laser speckles and spatiotemporal smoothing to obtain quantitative agreement with experiments. A compilation of hot-electron data from the past two decades reveals several other important points: (1) many prior experiments are more easily understood using recent results from multibeam absolute instability theory; and (2) experiments with ignition-scale conditions produce less hot electrons compared to OMEGA spherical experiments for a given vacuum overlapped intensity, which is a promising result for validating performance predictions based on hydrodynamic scaling relations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

GRAPH — an readout ASIC for large MCP based detectors

We present a programmable 16 channel, mixed signal, low power readout ASIC, having the project historically named Gigasample Recorder of Analog waveforms from a PHotodetector (GRAPH). It is designed to read large aperture single photon imaging detectors using micro channel plates for charge multiplication, and measuring the detector's response on crossed strips anodes to extrapolate the incoming photon position. Each channel consists of a fast, low power and low noise charge sensitive amplifier, which provides a myriad of coarse and fine programmable options for gain and shaping settings. Further, the amplified signal is recorded using, to our knowledge novel, the Hybrid Universal sampLing Architecture (HULA) ADC. A kind of mixed signal double buffer memory, that enables concurrent waveform recording, and selected event digitized data extraction. The sampling frequency is freely adjustable between few kHz up to 125 MHz, while the chip's internal digital memory holds a history 2048 samples for each channel, with a digital headroom of 12 bits. An optimized region of interest sample-read algorithm allows to extract the information just around the event pulse peak, while selecting the next event, thus substantially reducing the operational dead time. The chip is designed in 130 nm TSMC CMOS technology, and its power consumption is around 47 mW per channel.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data from: "Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions"

This archive contains data files that were used to draw conclusions in “Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions”, by Moyes et al., 2015. All field research was completed in common garden plots set up as part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.There are two main data file formats in this archive: comma-separated values (.csv), and Microsoft Excel (.xls and .xlsx). .xlsx files can be read using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, and .csv files can be read using any simple text editor program, such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows). This .pdf data user’s guide can be read using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible software. Seedling photographs and their corresponding leaf area-processed images are available in .jpg/.JPG image format, and can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). To provide additional spatial context, two types of geospatial files are also published in this data package: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and .kml files. Shapefiles are compatible with any GIS software able to read the file type (such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcGIS suite), and .kml files can be opened with Google Earth or Google Maps. Figures 3 and 4 in the publication contain data from Moyes et al. 2013. This publication is cited in the References section in this archive, and data files can be accessed via the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment project portal on ESS-DIVE. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.- We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season.- Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15–30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions.- Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic mode decomposition of nonequilibrium electron-phonon dynamics: accelerating the first-principles real-time Boltzmann equation

Abstract Nonequilibrium dynamics governed by electron–phonon ( e -ph) interactions plays a key role in electronic devices and spectroscopies and is central to understanding electronic excitations in materials. The real-time Boltzmann transport equation (rt-BTE) with collision processes computed from first principles can describe the coupled dynamics of electrons and atomic vibrations (phonons). Yet, a bottleneck of these simulations is the calculation of e –ph scattering integrals on dense momentum grids at each time step. Here we show a data-driven approach based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) that can accelerate the time propagation of the rt-BTE and identify dominant electronic processes. We apply this approach to two case studies, high-field charge transport and ultrafast excited electron relaxation. In both cases, simulating only a short time window of ~10% of the dynamics suffices to predict the dynamics from initial excitation to steady state using DMD extrapolation. Analysis of the momentum-space modes extracted from DMD sheds light on the microscopic mechanisms governing electron relaxation to a steady state or equilibrium. The combination of accuracy and efficiency makes our DMD-based method a valuable tool for investigating ultrafast dynamics in a wide range of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Subsurface Biogeochemical Variability in a High Altitude Watershed During Winter Isolation

Shallow subsurface microbial and geochemical processes in watersheds are dynamic and responsive to seasonal and long-term environmental change. At high elevation or latitude, such changes may occur during winter months when normal sampling is impossible, impractical, unsafe, or may actually alter the processes being studied. Yet accurate modeling of biogeochemical parameters in these environments requires sampling that can capture events and persistent cold climate trends. Gaps in current models exist where data have not been collected during extended snow- or ice-covered periods. The goals of our exploratory study were to examine the biogeochemical processes occurring in a well-studied high altitude watershed during winter when the system is largely inaccessible. We tested the hypothesis that during snow cover in the East River (ER) watershed, episodic excursions of microbial community structure and biogeochemical processes and concentrations fluctuated from values extrapolated from pre- and post-snow time periods. Through our research we identified previously unresolved subsurface-surface transport phenomena and a heretofore under-appreciated methane cycle occurring during wintertime months, thus providing valuable insight into watershed processes. Our research showed that autonomous sampling techniques, first used in marine systems, is extremely versatile and can be adapted for use in harsh continental settings to examine temporal changes in freshwater chemistry and microbial community assemblage. Further, we found that by sampling during periods when systems are hard to access, will lend insight and better accountability for global budgets for methane, an important greenhouse gas. By strengthening our knowledge of wintertime biogeochemical relationships in high altitude watersheds our research leads to more complete descriptions of cryptic processes and ultimately will inform and improve the reactive transport models that simulate processes in these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Escape Velocity Profile of the Milky Way from Gaia DR3

Abstract The escape velocity profile of the Milky Way offers a crucial and independent measurement of its underlying mass distribution and dark matter (DM) properties. Using a sample of stars from the third data release of Gaia with 6D kinematics and strict quality cuts, we obtain an escape velocity profile of the Milky Way from 4 to 11 kpc in Galactocentric radius. To infer the escape velocity in radial bins, we model the tail of the stellar speed distribution with both traditional power-law models and a new functional form that we introduce. While power-law models tend to rely on extrapolation to high speeds, we find our new functional form gives the most faithful representation of the observed distribution. Using this for the escape velocity profile, we constrain the properties of the Milky Way’s DM halo modeled as a Navarro–Frenck–White profile. Combined with constraints from the circular velocity at the solar position, we obtain a concentration and mass of c 200 c DM = 13.9 − 4.3 + 6.2 and M 200 c DM = 0.55 − 0.14 + 0.15 × 10 12 M ⊙ . This corresponds to a total Milky Way mass of M 200 c = 0.64 − 0.14 + 0.15 × 10 12 M ⊙ , which is on the low end of the historic range of the galaxy’s mass, but in line with other recent estimates.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗