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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Separation at Crossing Waypoints Under Wind Uncertainty in Urban Air Mobility

To enable high-density operations in major metropolitan areas, urban air mobility networks are anticipated to have air traffic management with higher levels of autonomy. To ensure that this type of autonomy is feasible, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is understanding various factors that affect the spatial separation between airborne flights and ensure that these factors can be managed. In terms of separation assurance and scheduling, an important real-world concern is that future states of aircraft cannot be perfectly predicted. The focus of this research paper is to understand how these prediction errors affect separation and scheduling services and to explore mitigation strategies to handle these errors. In this research, we have simulated these types of uncertainty by adding wind-prediction errors to trajectory predictions for separation. With these wind-prediction errors, we decompose the problem into two separate questions. First, using both simulation and analytical methods, we look at conflict-detection-only scenarios to understand how the wind errors affect required minimum temporal separation between crossing flights to ensure a specific spatial separation. Next, we study how trajectory errors effect conflict resolution, and we explore different combinations of scheduling and separation assurance to mitigate the effects of uncertainty between crossing flights. The conflict resolution algorithm aims to minimize necessary temporal separation between crossing flights under uncertainty, still ensuring safety-critical spatial separation. In summary, this research suggests that the required minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint is dependent on factors such as inbound crossing angle, the relative angle between wind direction and bearing of each route, wind magnitude, wind magnitude uncertainty, nominal cruise airspeed of aircraft, and look-ahead time of the conflict detection algorithm. This research also suggests that different combinations of scheduling and separation have different qualitative results. Using a combination of strategic, flow-based scheduling, tactical scheduling at crossings, speed control near crossing points, and separation management leads to a system that is insensitive to trajectory prediction errors with high throughput and flexibility for aircraft away from shared resources.

urban air mobility↗
NASA NTRS2021

Separation at Crossing Waypoints Under Wind Uncertainty in Urban Air Mobility

To enable high-density operations in major metropolitan areas, urban air mobility networks are anticipated to have air traffic management with higher levels of autonomy. To ensure that this type of autonomy is feasible, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is understanding various factors that affect the spatial separation between airborne flights and ensure that these factors can be managed. In terms of separation assurance and scheduling, an important real-world concern is that future states of aircraft cannot be perfectly predicted. The focus of this research paper is to understand how these prediction errors affect separation and scheduling services and to explore mitigation strategies to handle these errors. In this research, we have simulated these types of uncertainty by adding wind-prediction errors to trajectory predictions for separation. With these wind-prediction errors, we decompose the problem into two separate questions. First, using both simulation and analytical methods, we look at conflict-detection-only scenarios to understand how the wind errors affect required minimum temporal separation between crossing flights to ensure a specific spatial separation. Next, we study how trajectory errors effect conflict resolution, and we explore different combinations of scheduling and separation assurance to mitigate the effects of uncertainty between crossing flights. The conflict resolution algorithm aims to minimize necessary temporal separation between crossing flights under uncertainty, still ensuring safety-critical spatial separation. In summary, this research suggests that the required minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint is dependent on factors such as inbound crossing angle, the relative angle between wind direction and bearing of each route, wind magnitude, wind magnitude uncertainty, nominal cruise airspeed of aircraft, and look-ahead time of the conflict detection algorithm. This research also suggests that different combinations of scheduling and separation have different qualitative results. Using a combination of strategic, flow-based scheduling, tactical scheduling at crossings, speed control near crossing points, and separation management leads to a system that is insensitive to trajectory prediction errors with high throughput and flexibility for aircraft away from shared resources.

urban air mobility↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Identified Risks of Adverse Outcomes Due to Inadequate Human Systems Integration Architecture in Human Spaceflight

The NASA Human System Risk Board (HSRB) has the overall responsibility for tracking the evolution of the top ~30 human system risks that it has identified to be associated with human spaceflight. As part of this process, the Board is charged with maintaining a consistent, integrated process to mitigate those risks, and developing evidence-based risk posture recommendations. One of the identified risks is due to inadequate human systems integration architecture (HSIA) and a driving factor of this risk is that given decreasing real-time ground support for execution of complex operations during future exploration missions, there is a possibility of adverse performance outcomes including that crew are unable to adequately respond to unanticipated critical malfunctions or detect safety critical procedural errors. The HSRB uses Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) as a communication tool for describing how astronaut exposure to spaceflight hazards leads to meaningful mission-level health and performance outcomes and as the basis for understanding intermediate causal relationships between risk contributing factors and countermeasures that link hazards to outcomes. The HSIA risk DAG will be presented and described. Historically, critical malfunctions requiring Crew/MCC management occurred at a rate of 1.7 times per year for ISS averaged over the lifetime and 3-4 times per year in the burn in phase for the vehicle. These averages do not include EVA data, which greatly increases the incident rate. Prior experience from the Apollo program showed 10/11 crewed missions experienced significant anomalies where crew relied heavily on MCC expertise in real-time. These failure patterns are in line with those observed in other complex engineered systems (e.g., oil rigs, launch systems, commercial aviation, etc.) It is likely that general malfunction and error rates are > 10% for short duration missions (<30 days), based on past and current spaceflight operations data. Likelihood of adverse outcomes has the potential to increase as crew conduct work with new, complex systems and with less ground support. For Low Earth Orbit missions and Lunar missions less than 30 days, assuming minimal comm delays, disruptions and bandwidth limitations, malfunctions and errors can affect mission objectives and crew health but may be mitigated by ground support. For Lunar missions greater than 30 days and any potential Mars mission malfunctions and errors can have Loss of Crew and Loss of Mission consequences due to reduced ground support (communication delays, constraints and blackouts) for more complex operations, as well as reduced resupply and evacuation options.

Daniel M Buckland↗
DOE OSTI2025

Verification of the Uniformly-Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm in Correlated-Benchmark Whisper Calculations

Whisper is a nuclear criticality safety code package that aids analysts in validation exercises by computing upper subcritical limits (USL) for applications of interest. To obtain statistically meaningful, significant, and conservative USLs, the analyst must ensure that Whisper selects a sufficient number of benchmarks that are neutronically similar to the application. Many of the available benchmarks are correlated but are currently treated as independent, leading to an artificially small sample size, as their individual information contributions will be overestimated. To aid the analyst in obtaining a sufficient sample size, prior work [2] demonstrated application of the Uniformly-Ordered Binary Decision (UOBD) algorithm in adjusting benchmark weights to account for benchmark correlations. This work provides verification of the Whisper implementation and considers the impact of updated benchmark correlations compared to those available previously. We demonstrate that the UOBD algorithm performs as expected with an analytic example. With HEU-SOL-THERM-001 cases 1 through 10 as the applications, we compare the USLs computed with benchmark correlations available in the Whisper 1.1 release only to those computed with additional benchmark correlations from DICE 2023 and demonstrate substantive differences.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Coefficients Calculated for the Prompt Neutron Decay Constant at or Near Delayed Critical [Abstract]

Experimenters at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) measure the prompt neutron decay constant for many experiments at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) to infer reactivity and the effective neutron multiplication factor. These quantities are very important for nuclear criticality safety and validating nuclear data. Uncertainty in measures of criticality of an experimental configuration can be determined prior to physically performing the experiment by applying first order perturbation theory to Monte Carlo codes, such as MCNP®. The first order perturbation theory produces first derivatives of some nuclear parameter to nuclear data (e.g., cross section data). This first derivative is commonly referred to as a sensitivity coefficient. Currently, the MCNP® software has the capability of computing effective neutron multiplication factor sensitivity coefficients to cross section data. This work builds off of this MCNP® capability and the first order perturbation theory to provide a method of calculating sensitivity coefficients for the prompt neutron decay constant at or near delayed critical to cross section data. The prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficient calculated in this work does not depend on any modification of the MCNP® source code. Prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficient calculations can be used to infer reactivity and effective neutron multiplication factor sensitivity coefficient values as well. By investigating the trends of prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients for nuclide-reaction pairs across energy spectra, experiments can be designed to maximize or minimize the uncertainty in the prompt neutron decay constant in a particular energy region, which can lead to further optimization studies. Prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients will be calculated for the Jezebel benchmark. Subsequently, these sensitivity coefficients will be used in a data assimilation process to determine if there is or are optimal experiments that can be performed to provide insight into adjustments of uncertain/inaccurate cross section data. Specifically, the effect of the prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients on the nuclear data-induced uncertainty in the effective neutron multiplication factor will be examined

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constrained Bayesian optimization of criticality experiments

The design of criticality experiments is typically an iterative process that employs a Monte Carlo transport code. The goal is to find a design that optimizes some variable, like the sensitivity of a response to a cross section, while simultaneously ensuring criticality. The high fidelity of the Monte Carlo code is a great asset, but it makes exploring the design space computationally expensive. Herein, we present how a constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm can be used to efficiently design a criticality experiment. It uses Gaussian processes as a surrogate model to probe the design space and to reduce the number of code executions that are needed to find the optimum. Furthermore, we demonstrate constrained Bayesian optimization with a Pu-239/polyethylene solution system and a TEX experiment that is designed for criticality safety validation of a nuclear waste model at the Hanford Site. For both systems, a global optimum was found within 75 Monte Carlo simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

KRUSTY: Advancing Space Nuclear Power for Future Missions [Slides]

For more than 70 years, LANL has conducted subcritical and critical experiments in support of space reactors, small modular reactors (SMRs), and criticality safety programs. These experiments were performed first at Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility (LACEF) at TA-18 and in more recent years at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) in Nevada.

LACEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization Algorithm for Criticality Experiment Design Using Whisper

Many criticality experiments performed to aid in nuclear data evaluation are designed to maximize the sensitivity of the system’s effective neutron multiplication factor to a certain nuclide reaction pair over an energy region of interest. This is typically done by evaluating possible designs in a transport code such as MCNP and selecting the one with the highest desired sensitivity. A designer has many tools to try to maximize this sensitivity such as different moderators, reflectors, fuels, and geometries. This balancing act of identifying a critical and maximally sensitive system become very computationally expensive as more variables are added and higher precisions are desired. In order to identify these optimal configurations more efficiently a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm coupled with MCNP has been developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). This algorithm has been used to design two upcoming criticality experiments that will be performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC), located at the Nevada National Security Site, and operated by LANL, the only general-purpose critical experiments laboratory in the United States. PSO uses a population (swarm) of candidate solutions (particles) on a search space of dimensions such as moderator and reflector thicknesses or enrichments and concentrations. These particles move around the search space from generation to generation according to simple rules. Eventually, the swarm converges on the configuration that is both critical and maximally sensitive to a piece of nuclear data. PSO is well suited for criticality experiments as the algorithm is agnostic to the underlying physics, meaning it is effective on many different experimental setups. This algorithm has been modified to maximize the nuclear data similarity coefficient between an application case and an experiment aimed at replicating the application case using WHISPER, a nuclear criticality safety analysis tool. This allows for the efficient design of critical experiments informed by nuclear data sensitives.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experiments to Measure the Effect of Tantalum on Critical Systems

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) collaborated to develop a capability to test the epithermal/intermediate cross sections of materials at the SNL critical experiment facility using the Seven Percent Critical Experiment (7uPCX) fuel. As a result, a new set of critical experiments has been designed to target the epithermal cross sections of tantalum (Ta) and is scheduled to be performed at SNL in 2023. These critical experiments will be evaluated for inclusion in the 2024 edition of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. The focus of these critical experiments is to measure the effects of Ta on the critical array size. The critical array size will be determined by an approach-to-critical experiment with the number of fuel rods in the array as a free parameter. The core configurations are designed to optimize the reactivity worth of Ta and the overall percentage of Ta absorption rates in the epithermal/intermediate energy range (0.625 eV – 100 keV). The baseline core configuration includes 7uPCX fuel rods set at a triangular pitch of 1.016 cm and a central dry test region that utilizes a cadmium liner for filtering out thermal neutrons. The central test region has locations for 85 Ta rods set at a triangular pitch of 0.813 cm. The Ta reactivity worth for the case with 85 Ta rods is approximately 2.55%, with the percentage of Ta absorption rates within the intermediate energy range at nearly 90%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Alternative to Solution Experiments for Nuclear Data Validation: Reflection and Interaction of Juxtaposed Uranium (RAIJU) Experiment Design

The need for solution experiments was thoroughly discussed at the recent NCERC (National Criticality Experiments Research Center) Futures Meeting in September 2022 for multiple applications including criticality safety, training, and nuclear data. However, this capability does not exist anywhere in the United States. NCERC, located at the Nevada National Security Site and operated by LANL (Los Alamos National Laboratory) is the only general-purpose critical experiments laboratory in the United States. However, solution experiments are not authorized at NCERC, and obtaining that authorization would be too time consuming and costly to happen in the foreseeable future. An alternative is needed – an experimental configuration with the homogeneity of liquid experiments, but without being a liquid. This project, Reflection and Interaction of Juxtaposed Uranium (RAIJU) will fill the gap in capability within LANL, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the international community and will support current and future nuclear material processing needs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint LLNL, LANL, SNL, and IRSN High Multiplication Subcritical (Multiplicity) Benchmark Integral Experiment Execution (CED-3b Report)

This report documents the experimental configurations and measurements for IER-518: Joint LLNL, LANL, SNL, and IRSN High Multiplication Subcritical (Multiplicity) Benchmark Experiments. These measurements involved a series of subcritical configurations at the Sandia Critical Experiments (SCX) facility at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The purpose of these measurements was to produce time tagged neutron count data of configurations that exceed a subcritical multiplication of 20, which is the high end of the fundamental physics benchmarks currently available in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook (ICSBEP). These measurements leverage experimental configurations 1 and detector systems 2 from previously accepted ICSBEP benchmark evaluations, allowing evaluations of these measurements to be performed at greatly reduced cost.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correlation Calculations for the Russian Pu Metal Fast Experiments

Nuclear criticality experiments are often conducted in campaigns with multiple variations. These experiments reuse the same basic components, like the fuel, moderator, or positioning machines. The components have uncertainties in their geometry and composition that propagate to models of the experiments. Shared components create shared uncertainty between the $k_{eff}$ of benchmarks. The shared uncertainty is commonly quantified with a covariance, or correlation coefficient. These covariances can impact criticality safety and nuclear data validation applications. While benchmark evaluations tabulate an experiment’s uncertainty, they often lack a detailed calculation of correlations between experiments. Even some very commonly used benchmarks, like the Russian Pu Metal Fast (PMF) experiments, have missing correlations. This paper presents our approach to calculate the correlations for five of the Russian PMF experiments. The experiments share hemispherical Pu shells that induce a correlation between modeled $k_{eff}$ values. We estimated the correlations with simplified and detailed models of the experiments through linear-perturbation theory. The correlations between the experiments vary significantly between the detailed vs. simplified models. We also investigate how the correlations affect validation metrics of the experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

American Nuclear Society Standards Committee Subcommittee 8 Meeting [Slides]

The agenda was as follows: Discussion of Agenda, membership, Winter Meeting ANS-8 Subcommittee Minutes, ISO TC85/SC5/WG8 Standards Activity Report - D. Bowen, Nuclear Criticality Safety Consensus Committee (NCSCC) Activity Report - L. Wetzel, Reports from Working Group Chairs, and Old/New Business.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Expanded Validation of Uranium Systems with the KENO Monte Carlo Codes and SCALE 6.2.4

The development of accident-tolerant fuel and advanced reactors fueled with high-assay low-enriched uranium has created an increased focus on systems with uranium enrichments between 5 and 20 wt % 235 U. SCALE criticality safety validation reports generated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory contain very few benchmark experiments in this range. The work presented herein is an initial investigation of expanded validation of the entire range of enrichments for uranium-fueled systems, including consideration of over 300 newly developed KENO models. The vast majority of the new models are between 4.4 wt % and 37.5 wt % enrichment and include a variety of thermal, intermediate, and mixed neutron spectra. This work finds no strong evidence of an enrichment-dependent bias, but there are indications of a spectrum-dependent bias. There are, however, only a limited number of independent experiments included at this time to distinguish intermediate enrichment effects from intermediate spectrum effects. Further work in this area is ongoing for intermediate enrichment systems. In the long run, the addition of these models to the Verified, Archived Library and Inputs and Data is planned, as funding and staff availability allow.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constrained Bayesian Optimization of Criticality Experiments [Slides]

The design of criticality experiments is typically an iterative process that employs a Monte Carlo transport code. The goal is to find a design that optimizes some variable, like the sensitivity of a response to a cross section, while simultaneously ensuring criticality. The high fidelity of the Monte Carlo code is a great asset, but it makes exploring the design space computationally expensive. Herein, we present how a constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm can be used to efficiently design a criticality experiment. It uses Gaussian processes as a surrogate model to probe the design space and to reduce the number of code executions that are needed to find the optimum. We demonstrate constrained Bayesian optimization with a Pu-239/polyethylene solution system and a TEX experiment that is designed for criticality safety validation of a nuclear waste model at the Hanford Site. For both systems, a global optimum was found within 75 Monte Carlo simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity/Uncertainty Comparison Study Involving IRSN, LANL, and ORNL Tools to Support Validation [Abstract]

Under a DOE Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) task involving Analytical Methods, three Laboratories collaborated in a comparison of results obtained from Sensitivity/Uncertainty (S/U) packages relevant to validation of transport codes. The task involves Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) comparing results of MORET 5/MACSENS V3.0, MCNP6.2/Whisper-1.1, and SCALE 6.2.3/TSUNAMI/USLSTATS respectively. All Monte Carlo transport code results utilize nuclear data from ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗