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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

CompLaB v1.0: a scalable pore-scale model for flow, biogeochemistry, microbial metabolism, and biofilm dynamics

Abstract. Microbial activity and chemical reactions in porous media depend on the local conditions at the pore scale and can involve complex feedback with fluid flow and mass transport. We present a modeling framework that quantitatively accounts for the interactions between the bio(geo)chemical and physical processes and that can integrate genome-scale microbial metabolic information into a dynamically changing, spatially explicit representation of environmental conditions. The model couples a lattice Boltzmann implementation of Navier–Stokes (flow) and advection–diffusion-reaction (mass conservation) equations. Reaction formulations can include both kinetic rate expressions and flux balance analysis, thereby integrating reactive transport modeling and systems biology. We also show that the use of surrogate models such as neural network representations of in silico cell models can speed up computations significantly, facilitating applications to complex environmental systems. Parallelization enables simulations that resolve heterogeneity at multiple scales, and a cellular automaton module provides additional capabilities to simulate biofilm dynamics. The code thus constitutes a platform suitable for a range of environmental, engineering and – potentially – medical applications, in particular ones that involve the simulation of microbial dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation

Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi-model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2-45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non-negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Phase Field Modeling of Corrosion for Design of Next-Generation Magnesium-Aluminum Vehicle Joints

In this study, WPI and its partners sought to understand galvanic corrosion in Mg-Al friction stir weld (FSW) joints. Unlike fusion welds, FSW is done in the solid state. This limits (but does not eliminate) the formation of brittle Al-Mg intermetallics, resulting in better joint strength and corrosion resistance. This study aimed to understand corrosion behavior of Mg-Al FSW joints by using a Cahn-Hilliard phase field electrochemistry model based on the work of Pongsaksawad et al. Its context challenge problem was an ultra-light door designed by Magna with 6061-Al sheet outer and ZEK100-Mg sheet inner panels, joined by an adhesive and FSW. Unlike most FSW joints, which weld through the softer material into the harder one, the Al sheet’s hem joint around Mg required the FSW tool to through the harder Al into the softer Mg, which was itself a challenge. Despite this challenge, PNNL succeeded in consistently making very strong FSW lap joints, by using a triflute tool and power control. Characterization showed mostly separate Al and Mg regions in the weld, usually with a hook protruding from Al into Mg, which likely contributed to high joint strength. Nanohardness mapping showed higher hardness in thin Mg swirls into the Al nugget, likely due to the intermetallics. The study used the industry standard SAE J2334 Cyclic Corrosion Test (CCT) to simulate corrosion conditions over the life of a vehicle, as well as linear polarization testing and ASTM G71 pitting corrosion testing. Corrosion reactions were: H 2 O + ½O 2 + 2e - → 2OH - at the Al cathode, and either Mg → Mg 2+ + 2e - or Mg + 2OH - → Mg(OH) 2 + 2e - at the Mg anode, with electron transfer through the joint. Mass loss increased with Al section length, supporting the hypothesis that galvanic corrosion in Al-Mg joints is limited by the cathodic reaction. Both pitting corrosion (first anode reaction) and hydroxide film formation (second reaction) were observed. The J2334 CCT test method was slightly modified, adding a chromium solution cleaning step after each week of corrosion testing, in order to remove Mg oxides and hydroxides and accurately measure mass loss over time. That said, FSW joints treated in this way did not did not exhibit significant reduction in lap shear strength of the joints vs. newly welded samples which had not undergone corrosion. Corrosion appeared to consist mainly of pitting in Mg in a way which did not directly affect the bond between the materials where the joints failed. A Cahn-Hilliard phase field model coupled with electrical potential described the electronically mediated galvanic corrosion electrochemical reactions described above in the four-component Al-Mg-H 2 O-(H 2 O+½O 2 ) system. This 2-D model successfully predicted Mg(OH)₂ formation at the anode in some circumstances, and Mg pitting corrosion in others, and showed the correct electric field directions in both cases. The model predicted Mg pit corrosion depth within a factor of two of measured pits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling

The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used elements of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. Successive phases of CMIP have supported strong results in science and substantially influence international climate policy formulation. This paper responds to both interest in exploiting CMIP data standards in a broader range of climate modelling activities and a need to achieve greater clarity about the significance and intention of variables in the CMIP Data Request. As Earth system modelling archives grow in scale and complexity, there are emerging problems associated with weak standardisation at the variable collection level. That is, there are good standards covering how specific variables should be archived, but this paper fills a gap in the standardisation of which variables should be archived. The ESM-BCV list is intended as a resource for ESM intercomparison projects (MIPs) developing requests to enable greater consistency among MIPs and as a reference for modelling centres to enhance consistency within MIPs. Provisional planning for the CMIP7 Data Request exploits the ESM-BCVs as a core element. The baseline variable list includes 98 variables which have modest or minor data volume footprints and could be generated systematically when simulations are produced and archived for exploitation by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) community. A further 35 variables are classed as “high volume” and are only suitable for production when the resource implications are justified.

Juckes, Martin [University of Oxford (United Kingd↗
DOE OSTI2021

Drying model of a high salt content cementitious waste form: Effect of capillary forces and salt solution

Highlights: • Drying model for a high salt content cementitious waste form is developed. • Water vapor diffusion and capillary liquid flow are distinguished. • Capillary and salt solution effects are considered in vapor-liquid equilibrium. A water transport model coupling capillary liquid flow with vapor diffusion is developed to describe the drying process for a cementitious waste form with high salinity porewater. Vapor-liquid equilibrium is formulated as the driving force for vapor diffusion and the model accounts for pore capillary and high salinity effects on water thermodynamic activity. Pore filling and porewater surface tension as a function of pore size distribution and water saturation have been quantified for the material. Geochemical speciation modeling is used to simulate porewater activity as a function of composition over the range of saturation. The theoretical relationship between relative humidity and water saturation generally agrees with experimental measurement, and the developed model is capable of predicting drying rates under various external relative humidity conditions. The model was developed to be incorporated into reactive transport models considering the effects of drying such as salt redistribution and efflorescence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Late Holocene Cliff Retreat in Del Mar, CA, Revealed From Shore Platform 10 Be Concentrations and Numerical Modeling

Rocky coast cliff retreat presents a hazard to coastal communities and infrastructure that is potentially amplified under rising sea level conditions, among other factors. Unfortunately, constraints on retreat rates are typically limited to those derived from imagery and maps spanning the last ~100 years. Here, we use a newly developed coupled model of shore platform profile evolution and cosmogenic radionuclide production that considers the influence of relative sea level (RSL) rise, weathering, material resistance, and wave height decay to model cliff retreat over millennial timescales and its potential drivers in Del Mar, California. We demonstrate the ability to use topographic and bathymetric measurements from a narrow shore platform along with a limited data set of nine cosmogenic 10Be concentrations extending ~125 m from the cliff base to obtain modeled cliff retreat rates that steadily range from 5.0 to 12.5 cm yr -1 over the last two millennia until 100 years before present. These rates are consistent with modern retreat rates of about 2–19 cm yr -1 here. RSL rise in Southern California remained relatively constant during the late Holocene, potentially explaining the relatively stable modeled cliff retreat rate over this time. We also explore the relative influence of weathering, material resistance, and wave erosion efficacy and find that both weathering and wave-driven erosion are necessary to replicate the measured data at this location, with the latter exerting a stronger control on model acceptance, suggesting that waves may provide a possible mechanism by which RSL rise may influence coastal cliff erosion in southern California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heat and Mass Transfer in Hygroscopic Hydrogels

Hygroscopic hydrogels have emerged as a scalable material capable of high-performance vapor sorption for atmospheric water harvesting, dehumidification, and passive cooling due to their fast kinetics and high water uptake. Despite extensive research interest, there is a lack of understanding of the governing energy and mass transport mechanisms within the hydrogels, which hinders their optimization. Here we present a model that explains sorption and desorption in hygroscopic hydrogels for the first time. Our model couples vapor transport in the hydrogel micropores, liquid transport in the polymer nanopores, and heat transport in the porous hydro-gel to accurately capture experimentally observed sorption and desorption data. The knowledge obtained from this model can therefore guide the design of hygroscopic hydrogels and enable improved performance in multi-ple sorption-based applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics informed deep neural network embedded in a chemical transport model for the Amazon rainforest

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are fine particles in the atmosphere, which interact with clouds, radiation and affect the Earth’s energy budget. SOA formation involves chemistry in gas phase, aqueous aerosols, and clouds. Simulating these chemical processes involve solving a stiff set of differential equations, which are computationally expensive steps for three-dimensional chemical transport models. Deep neural networks (DNNs) are universal function approximators that could be used to represent the complex nonlinear changes in aerosol physical and chemical processes; however, key challenges such as generalizability to extended time periods, preservation of mass balance, simulating sparse model outputs, and maintaining physical constraints have limited their use in atmospheric chemistry. Here, we develop an approach of using a physics-informed DNN that overcomes previous such challenges and demonstrates its applicability for the chemical formation processes of isoprene epoxydiol SOA (IEPOX-SOA) over the Amazon rainforest. The DNN is trained with data generated by simulating IEPOX-SOA over the entire atmospheric column, using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The trained DNN is then embedded within WRF-Chem to replace the computationally expensive default solver of IEPOX-SOA formation. The trained DNN predictions generalizes well with the default model simulation of the IEPOX-SOA mass concentrations and its size distribution (20 size bins) over several days of simulations in both dry and wet seasons. The embedded DNN reduces the computational expense of WRF-Chem by a factor of 2. Our approach shows promise in terms of application to other computationally expensive chemistry solvers in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations

Realistically representing the present-day characteristics of extreme precipitation has been a challenge for global climate models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model resolution and physics, but is also due to a lack of consistency in gridded observations. In this study, we use three observation datasets, including gridded rain gauge and satellite data, to assess historical simulations from sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We separately evaluate summer and winter precipitation over the United States (US) with a comprehensive set of extreme precipitation indices, including an assessment of precipitation frequency, intensity and spatial structure. The observations exhibit significant differences in their estimates of area-average intensity distributions and spatial patterns of the mean and extremes of precipitation over the US. In general, the CMIP6 multi-model mean performs better than most individual models at capturing daily precipitation distributions and extreme precipitation indices, particularly in comparison to gauge-based data. Also, the representation of the extreme precipitation indices by the CMIP6 models is better in the summer than winter. Although the ‘standard’ horizontal-resolution can vary significantly across CMIP6 models, from ~0.7° to ~2.8°, we find that resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Overall, our results highlight common biases in CMIP6 models and demonstrate that no single model is consistently the most reliable across all indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and Optimization of a Novel Hexagonal Waveguide Concentrator for Solar Thermal Applications

This paper analyzes a novel, cost-effective planar waveguide solar concentrator design that is inspired by cellular hexagonal structures in nature with the benefits of facile installation and low operation and maintenance cost. A coupled thermal and optical analysis of solar irradiation through an ideal hexagonal waveguide concentrator integrated with a linear receiver is presented, along with a cost analysis methodology, to establish the upper limit of performance. The techno-economic model, coupled with numerical optimization, is used to determine designs that maximized power density and minimized the cost of heat in the temperature range of 100–250 °C, which constitutes more than half of the industrial process heat demand. Depending on the incident solar irradiation and the application temperature, the cost of heat for the optimal design configuration ranged between 0.1–0.27 $/W and 0.075–0.18 $/W for waveguide made of ZK7 glass and polycarbonate, respectively. A techno-economic analysis showed the potential of the technology to achieve cost as low as 80 $/m2 and 61 $/m2 for waveguide made of ZK7 glass and polycarbonate material, respectively, which is less than half the cost of state-of-the-art parabolic trough concentrators. Overall, the hexagonal waveguide solar concentrator technology shows immense potential for decarbonizing the industrial process heat and thermal desalination sectors.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A transient site balance model for atomic layer etching

We present a transient site balance model of plasma-assisted atomic layer etching of silicon (Si) with alternating exposure to chlorine gas (Cl 2 ) and argon ions (Ar + ). Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation results are used to provide parameters for the model. The model couples the dynamics of a top monolayer surface region ('top layer') and a perfectly mixed subsurface region ('mixed layer'). The differential equations describing the rates of change of the Cl coverage in the two layers are transient mass balances. Model predictions include Cl coverages and rates of etching of various species from the surface as a function of Cl 2 or Ar + fluence. The simplified phenomenological model reproduces the MD simulation results well over a range of conditions. Comparing model predictions directly to experimental optical emission spectroscopy data, as reported in a previous paper, provides further evidence of the accuracy of the model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multifrequency Models of Black Hole Photon Rings from Low-luminosity Accretion Disks

Images of black holes encode both astrophysical and gravitational properties. Detecting highly lensed features in images can differentiate between these two effects. We present an accretion disk emission model coupled to the Adaptive Analytical Ray Tracing (AART) code that allows a fast parameter space exploration of black hole photon ring images produced from synchrotron emission from 10 to 670 GHz. As an application, we systematically study several disk models and compute their total flux density, average radii, and optical depth. The model parameters are chosen around fiducial values calibrated to general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and observations of M87*. For the parameter space studied, we characterize the transition between optically thin and thick regimes and the frequency at which the first photon ring is observable. Our results highlight the need for careful definitions of photon ring radius in the image domain, as in certain models the highly lensed photon ring is dimmer than the direct emission at certain angles. We find that at low frequencies the ring radii are set by the electron temperature, while at higher frequencies the magnetic field strength plays a more significant role, demonstrating how multifrequency analysis can also be used to infer plasma parameters. Lastly, we show how our implementation can qualitatively reproduce multifrequency black hole images from GRMHD simulations when adding time variability to our disk model through Gaussian random fields. This approach provides a new method for simulating observations from the Event Horizon Telescope and the proposed Black Hole Explorer space mission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

gaia: An R package to estimate crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation

gaia is an open-source R package designed to estimate crop yield shocks in response to annual weather variations and CO 2 concentrations at the country scale for 17 major crops. This innovative tool streamlines the workflow from raw climate data processing to projections of annual shocks to crop yields at the country level, using the response surfaces from an empirical econometric model developed and documented in Waldhoff et al. (2020), which leverages historical weather, CO 2 , and crop yield data for robust empirical fitting for 17 crops. gaia uses these response surfaces with monthly temperature and precipitation projections (e.g., from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill et al., 2016) climate data bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled by the ISIMIP3BASD approach (Lange, 2019) in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) (Warszawski et al., 2014)) to project yield shocks that can be applied to agricultural productivity changes at the country level for use in multisectoral economic models. The historical and future projections use gridded, country-and-crop specific monthly growing season precipitation and temperature data, aggregated to the national level, and weighted by cropland area derived from the global Monthly Irrigated and Rainfed Crop Areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset (Portmann et al., 2010). These annual, country, and crop-specific yield shocks can be aggregated to different definitions of regions, crop commodities, and time periods, as needed by specific multisectoral economic models. gaia serves as a lightweight, powerful tool that can aid exploration of crop yield responses under a broad range of future climate projections, enhancing human-Earth system analysis capabilities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological projections over the Upper Indus Basin at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase

We analyse an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) to investigate future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan for the time horizons when the global and/or regional warming levels cross Paris Agreement (PA) targets. The GCMs data is obtained from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the five best performing GCMs, we note that global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming thresholds are projected in 2026 and 2047 under RCP4.5 and 2022 and 3036 under RCP8.5 respectively while these thresholds are reached much earlier over Pakistan i.e. 2016 and 2030 under RCP4.5 and 2012 and 2025 under RCP8.5 respectively. Interestingly, the GCMs with the earliest emergence at the global scale are not necessarily the ones with the earliest emergence over Pakistan, highlighting spatial non-linearity in GCMs response. The emergence of 2.0 °C warming at global scale across 5 GCMs ranges from 2031 (CCSM4) to 2049 (NorESM) under RCP8.5. Precipitation generally exhibits a progressive increasing trend with stronger changes at higher warming or radiative forcing levels. Hydrological simulations representing the historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global and region warming time horizons indicate a robust but seasonally varying increase in the inflows. The highest inflows in the baseline and future are witnessed in July. However, the highest future increase in inflows is projected in October under RCP4.5 (37.99% and 65.11% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) and in April under RCP8.5 (37% and 62.05% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C). These hydrological changes are driven by increases in the snow and glacial melt contribution, which are more pronounced at 2.0 °C warming level. These findings should help for effective water management in Pakistan over the coming decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Misrepresentation of the Southern African Easterly Jet in Models and Its Implications for Aerosol, Clouds, and Precipitation Distributions

The southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S) is an important midtropospheric feature critical to understanding the tropical convective system over central Africa and the aerosol–cloud interactions over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. However, it remains unclear how well models represent the AEJ-S and its influence on aerosol transport, clouds, and precipitation distribution. Here, in this work, we use ground- and satellite-based observations and reanalysis datasets to assess the representation of AEJ-S in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models between September and October during the peak of midtropospheric winds, aerosol transport, clouds, and precipitation. We find that most CMIP6 models have difficulty accurately simulating the strength, position, and spatial distribution of the AEJ-S. Specifically, the AEJ-S is relatively weaker and at a slightly lower altitude in the ensemble of CMIP6 models than represented by observation and reanalysis datasets. To assess the influence of the misrepresented the AEJ-S on CMIP6-simulated aerosol, clouds, and precipitation distributions, we performed composite analyses using models with low and high biases based on the estimates of their midtropospheric easterly wind speed. We find that the misrepresentation of the AEJ-S in CMIP6 models is associated with the overestimation of clouds and precipitation over central Africa, the underestimation of clouds over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, and the limitation of aerosol transport over the continent or the deviation of its spatial distribution from the typical zonal transport over the Atlantic Ocean. Because aerosols, clouds, and precipitation are important components of the regional climate system, we conclude that accurate representation of the AEJ-S is essential over central Africa and the southeast Atlantic Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗