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DOE OSTI2024

Streamlining Ocean Dynamics Modeling with Fourier Neural Operators: A Multiobjective Hyperparameter and Architecture Optimization Approach

Training an effective deep learning model to learn ocean processes involves careful choices of various hyperparameters. We leverage DeepHyper’s advanced search algorithms for multiobjective optimization, streamlining the development of neural networks tailored for ocean modeling. The focus is on optimizing Fourier neural operators (FNOs), a data-driven model capable of simulating complex ocean behaviors. Selecting the correct model and tuning the hyperparameters are challenging tasks, requiring much effort to ensure model accuracy. DeepHyper allows efficient exploration of hyperparameters associated with data preprocessing, FNO architecture-related hyperparameters, and various model training strategies. We aim to obtain an optimal set of hyperparameters leading to the most performant model. Moreover, on top of the commonly used mean squared error for model training, we propose adopting the negative anomaly correlation coefficient as the additional loss term to improve model performance and investigate the potential trade-off between the two terms. The numerical experiments show that the optimal set of hyperparameters enhanced model performance in single timestepping forecasting and greatly exceeded the baseline configuration in the autoregressive rollout for long-horizon forecasting up to 30 days. Utilizing DeepHyper, we demonstrate an approach to enhance the use of FNO in ocean dynamics forecasting, offering a scalable solution with improved precision.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tetrafluoroboric Acid Digestion for Accurate Determination of Rare Earth Elements in Coal and Fly Ash by ICP-MS Analysis

Coal and coal-related fly ash often contain rare earth elements (REEs) that have the potential to be utilized as valuable mineral resources. Accurately determining the REE content in coal and fly ash is crucial for resource evaluation. The conventional approach involves using hydrofluoric acid (HF) to dissolve silicates and release REEs, which, however, prolongs the digestion process due to the additional step of complexing fluoride ions (F−) with boric acid (H3BO3). Determining the correct amount of H3BO3 for neutralization can be challenging, and in some instances, the binding of fluoride ions with certain lanthanides (Lns) hampers the accurate determination of all 14 naturally occurring rare earth elements in a single digestion batch by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). In this study, we present an alternative method that achieves the accurate determination of all 14 naturally occurring REEs using tetrafluoroboric acid (HBF4) followed by ICP-MS analysis. This approach eliminates the need for an F− complexing step. We tested this method on certified REE reference materials, including NIST 1632e (coal) and NIST 1633c (fly ash), as well as the REE geological reference material USGS AGV-1 (andesite). Our results demonstrated excellent recovery rates (relative standard deviation, RSD < ±10%), with a correlation coefficient (r2) exceeding 0.99. Using this method, we investigated the concentrations of all 14 REEs in coal and fly ash samples collected from various locations in the southwestern USA. This improved digestion technique streamlines the analysis process and enhances the accuracy of REE determination, facilitating a more comprehensive evaluation of REE-rich coal and fly ash deposits for resource exploration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization and Multimachine Learning Algorithms to Predict Nanometal Surface Area Transfer Parameters for Gold and Silver Nanoparticles

Interactions between gold metallic nanoparticles and molecular dyes have been well described by the nanometal surface energy transfer (NSET) mechanism. However, the expansion and testing of this model for nanoparticles of different metal composition is needed to develop a greater variety of nanosensors for medical and commercial applications. In this study, the NSET formula was slightly modified in the size-dependent dampening constant and skin depth terms to allow for modeling of different metals as well as testing the quenching effects created by variously sized gold, silver, copper, and platinum nanoparticles. Overall, the metal nanoparticles followed more closely the NSET prediction than for Förster resonance energy transfer, though scattering effects began to occur at 20 nm in the nanoparticle diameter. To further improve the NSET theoretical equation, an attempt was made to set a best-fit line of the NSET theoretical equation curve onto the Au and Ag data points. An exhaustive grid search optimizer was applied in the ranges for two variables, 0.1≤C≤2.0 and 0≤α≤4, representing the metal dampening constant and the orientation of donor to the metal surface, respectively. Three different grid searches, starting from coarse (entire range) to finer (narrower range), resulted in more than one million total calculations with values C=2.0 and α=0.0736. The results improved the calculation, but further analysis needed to be conducted in order to find any additional missing physics. With that motivation, two artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) algorithms, multilayer perception and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, gave a correlation coefficient, R2, greater than 0.97, indicating that the small dataset was not overfitting and was method-independent. This analysis indicates that an investigation is warranted to focus on deeper physics informed machine learning for the NSET equations.

Demers, Steven M. E. (ORCID:0000000192213246)↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Temperature Inversion on the Vertical Distribution of Aerosols

Temperature inversion plays an important role in the accumulation and diffusion of aerosols. In this study, the relationship between temperature inversion and the vertical distribution of aerosols is investigated based on Raman lidar observations taken from January 2010 to September 2015 at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site in the Southern Great Plains, USA. First, the diurnal and seasonal variations of the surface-based inversion (SBI) and elevated temperature inversion (EI) are investigated. The results indicate that the occurrence frequency of SBI and EI have different seasonal trends. SBI has the highest frequency in summer, while EI has the highest frequency in winter. The diurnal variation of SBI is obvious, with a higher frequency in nighttime and a lower frequency in daytime. The inversion intensity (ΔT) and inversion depth (ΔZ) of SBI and EI have consistent diurnal and seasonal trends. The effects of SBI and EI on the vertical distribution of aerosols are then analyzed. The mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) below the SBI height shows a clear seasonal variation, which is consistent with the seasonal trends of ΔT and ΔZ. This phenomenon also occurs on the AOD below EI top height. The sensitivity analysis shows that the mean AOD below SBI height or EI top height increases with an increase of the ΔT and ΔZ of SBI (EI). It indicates that ΔT and ΔZ are the key factors affecting the vertical distribution of aerosols. In addition, the variation of AOD below and above EI top height is opposite to that of AOD below and above EI bottom height under different ΔT and ΔZ conditions. The correlation coefficients between ΔT (ΔZ) of EI with AOD in EI were 0.62 (0.65). These results indicate that the space between EI bottom height and EI top height can store aerosols. The larger the ΔZ of EI, the more aerosols are stored. These findings contribute to our understanding of the effect of temperature inversion on the vertical distribution of aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Statistically Resolved Planetary Boundary Layer Height Diurnal Variability Using Spaceborne Lidar Data

The Planetary Boundary Layer Height (PBLH) significantly impacts weather, climate, and air quality. Understanding the global diurnal variation of the PBLH is particularly challenging due to the necessity of extensive observations and suitable retrieval algorithms that can adapt to diverse thermodynamic and dynamic conditions. This study utilized data from the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) to analyze the diurnal variation of PBLH in both continental and marine regions. By leveraging CATS data and a modified version of the Different Thermo-Dynamics Stability (DTDS) algorithm, along with machine learning denoising, the study determined the diurnal variation of the PBLH in continental mid-latitude and marine regions. The CATS DTDS-PBLH closely matches ground-based lidar and radiosonde measurements at the continental sites, with correlation coefficients above 0.6 and well-aligned diurnal variability, although slightly overestimated at nighttime. In contrast, PBLH at the marine site was consistently overestimated due to the viewing geometry of CATS and complex cloud structures. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating meteorological data with lidar signals for accurate and robust PBLH estimations, which are essential for effective boundary layer assessment from satellite observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing Seasonal Variation of the Atmospheric Mixing Layer Height Using Machine Learning Approaches

As machine learning becomes more integrated into atmospheric science, XGBoost has gained popularity for its ability to assess the relative contributions of influencing factors in the atmospheric boundary layer height. To examine how these factors vary across seasons, a seasonal analysis is necessary. However, dividing data by season reduces the sample size, which can affect result reliability and complicate factor comparisons. To address these challenges, this study replaces default parameters with grid search optimization and incorporates cross-validation to mitigate dataset limitations. Using XGBoost with four years of data from the atmospheric radiation measurement (ARM) (Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, cross-validation stabilizes correlation coefficient fluctuations from 0.3 to within 0.1. With optimized parameters, the R value can reach 0.81. Analysis of the C1 site reveals that the relative importance of different factors changes across seasons. Lower tropospheric stability (LTS, ~0.53) is the dominant factor at C1 throughout the year. However, during DJF, latent heat flux (LHF, 0.44) surpasses LTS (0.22). In SON, LTS (0.58) becomes more influential than LHF (0.18). Further comparisons among the four long-term SGP sites (C1, E32, E37, and E39) show seasonal variations in relative importance. Notably, during JJA, the differences in the relative importance of the three factors across all sites are lower than in other seasons. This suggests that boundary layer development in the summer is not dominated by a single factor, reflecting a more intricate process likely influenced by seasonal conditions such as enhanced convective activity, higher temperatures, and humidity, which collectively contribute to a balanced distribution of parameter impacts. Furthermore, the relative importance of LTS gradually increases from morning to noon, indicating that LTS becomes more significant as the boundary layer approaches its maximum height. Consequently, the LTS in the early morning in autumn exhibits greater relative importance compared to other seasons. This reflects a faster development of the mixing layer height (MLH) in autumn, suggesting that it is easier to retrieve the MLH from the previous day during this period. The findings enhance understanding of boundary layer evolution and contribute to improved boundary layer parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

RedMaPPer: Evolution and Mass Dependence of the Conditional Luminosity Functions of Red Galaxies in Galaxy Clusters

In this work we characterize the luminosity distribution, halo-mass dependence, and redshift evolution of red galaxies in galaxy clusters using the SDSS Data Release 8 redMaPPer cluster sample. We propose a simple prescription for the relationship between the luminosity of both red central and red satellite galaxies and the mass of their host halos, and show that this model is well fit by the data. Using a larger galaxy cluster sample than previously employed in the literature, we find that the luminosities of red central galaxies scale as $\langle \mathrm{log}L\rangle \propto {A}_{L}\mathrm{log}({M}_{200b})$, with A L = 0.39 ± 0.04, and that the scatter of the red central galaxy luminosity at fixed M 200b (${\sigma }_{\mathrm{log}L| M}$) is ${0.23}_{-0.04}^{+0.05}$ dex, with the error bar including systematics due to mis-centering of the cluster finder, photometry, and photometric redshift estimation. Our data prefers a positive correlation between the luminosity of red central galaxies and the observed richness of clusters at a fixed halo mass, with an effective correlation coefficient ${d}_{\mathrm{eff}}={0.36}_{-0.16}^{+0.17}$. The characteristic luminosity of red satellites becomes dimmer from z = 0.3 to z = 0.1 by ~20% after accounting for passive evolution. We estimate the fraction of galaxy clusters where the brightest red galaxy is not the central to be P BNC ~ 20%. We discuss implications of these findings in the context of galaxy evolution and the galaxy–halo connection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The X-Ray Fundamental Plane of the Platinum Sample, the Kilonovae, and the SNe Ib/c Associated with GRBs

A large fraction of gamma-ray burst (GRB) lightcurves (LCs) show X-ray plateaus. We analyze all GRBs with known redshifts presenting plateaus observed by The Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory from its launch until 2019 August. The fundamental plane relation between the rest-frame time and X-ray luminosity at the end of the plateau emission and the peak prompt luminosity holds for all the GRB classes when selection biases and cosmological evolutions are applied. We have discovered two important findings: (1) a new class of long GRBs with good data coverage: the platinum sample; and (2) the platinum, the SNe-LGRB, and the KN-SGRB samples, yield the smallest intrinsic scatter with σ platinum , GRB-SNe = 0.22 ± 0.10 and σ KN-SGRB = 0.24 ± 0.12. The SNe-LGRBs are composed of GRBs associated spectroscopically with the SNe Ib,c, the KN-SGRBs are composed by eight GRBs associated with kilonovae or where there could have been such an association. The highest correlation coefficients are yielded for the SN-LGRB-ABC sample, which includes GRBs spectroscopically associated with SNe Ib/c or with a clear optical bump in the LC resembling the SNe Ib/c, ( ), the SN-LGRBs ( ), and the KN-SGRBs ( ) when the redshift evolution is considered. We find that these category planes are reliable candidates to use as cosmological tools. Furthermore, the distance from the gold fundamental plane is a crucial discriminant among classes. In fact, we find that the distributions of the distances of the SNe-LGRB, SNe-LGRB-ABC, KN-SGRB, and SGRB samples from the gold fundamental plane are statistically different from the distribution of the gold GRBs' distances from the gold fundamental plane with and without considering evolution cases. <

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Blanco DECam Bulge Survey (BDBS). VII. Multiple Populations in Globular Clusters of the Galactic Bulge

We present photometric evidence for multiple stellar populations (MPs) in 14 globular clusters (GCs) toward the southern Galactic bulge. The photometric data come as part of the Blanco DECam Bulge Survey, which is a deep, wide-field near-UV-near-IR (ugrizY) survey of the southern Galactic bulge. Here, we present the first systematic study of bulge GC multiple populations with deep photometry including the u band, which is a crucial indicator of the abundance of CNO-bearing molecules in stellar atmospheres. We identify cluster members using Gaia EDR3 proper motion measurements, and then isolate red giant branch stars using r versus u - r color–magnitude diagrams. We find evidence suggesting all 14 clusters host at least two populations, and NGC 6441, NGC 6626, and NGC 6656 appear to have at least three populations. Many of these clusters are not part of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) surveys nor do they have comprehensive spectroscopic analyses so we are presenting the first evidence of MPs in several clusters. Not only do we find a strong anticorrelation between the fraction of first-generation stars and cluster absolute V magnitude, but the correlation coefficient and cluster-to-cluster scatter are similar to the results obtained from HST. Our ground-based data extend to much larger radial distances than similar HST observations, enabling a reliable estimate of the global fraction of first-generation stars in each cluster. This study demonstrates that ground-based u-band photometry as provided by DECam will prove powerful in the study of multiple populations in resolved GCs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of the Full Shape of the Thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich Power Spectrum from the South Pole Telescope and Herschel–SPIRE Observations

We present a measurement of the full shape of the power spectrum of the thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (tSZ) effect down to arcminute scales using cosmic microwave background (CMB) data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) over a roughly 100 deg 2 field. The analysis incorporates data from the 2019–2020 seasons of the SPT-3G survey in bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz; from the full SPTpol dataset at 150 GHz; and from the Herschel–SPIRE survey in bands centered at 600 and 857 GHz. We combine data from all the above bands using linear combination (LC) techniques to produce a tSZ or Compton-y map. We modify the LC weights to produce multiple versions of the Compton-y map, including minimum-variance (MV) and foreground-minimized (-min) maps. We measure the auto- and cross-power spectra of a subset of these maps in the range ℓ ∈ [500, 5000]. While this power spectrum includes contributions from signals other than tSZ, we present numerous checks to show that the most challenging foreground signal, the cosmic infrared background (CIB), is much lower than the desired tSZ signal in the scales of interest in this work. The final tSZ power spectrum is measured at 9.3σ with both the MV and CIB-min maps. Our results are consistent with those reported in other CMB surveys across the literature. Using the difference in the tSZ power spectrum from the MV and CIB-min maps, we reconstruct the scale-dependent tSZ–CIB cross correlation $ρ^{\textrm{tSZ}}_{ℓ}$ x CIB, finding 3.1σ evidence for a nonzero correlation coefficient that is positive on large scales and approaches zero for ℓ > 2500. This result represents the deepest tSZ maps ever produced and provides new constraints that can help refine astrophysical feedback mechanisms and models of the intracluster medium.

Raghunathan, S. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (U↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design of Broadly Cross-Reactive M Protein–Based Group A Streptococcal Vaccines

Group A streptococcal infections are a significant cause of global morbidity and mortality. A leading vaccine candidate is the surface M protein, a major virulence determinant and protective Ag. An obstacle to the development of M protein–based vaccines is the >200 different M types defined by the N-terminal sequences that contain protective epitopes. Despite sequence variability, M proteins share coiled-coil structural motifs that bind host proteins required for virulence. In this study, we exploit this potential Achilles heel of conserved structure to predict cross-reactive M peptides that could serve as broadly protective vaccine Ags. Combining sequences with structural predictions, six heterologous M peptides in a sequence-related cluster were predicted to elicit cross-reactive Abs with the remaining five nonvaccine M types in the cluster. The six-valent vaccine elicited Abs in rabbits that reacted with all 11 M peptides in the cluster and functional opsonic Abs against vaccine and nonvaccine M types in the cluster. We next immunized mice with four sequence-unrelated M peptides predicted to contain different coiled-coil propensities and tested the antisera for cross-reactivity against 41 heterologous M peptides. Based on these results, we developed an improved algorithm to select cross-reactive peptide pairs using additional parameters of coiled-coil length and propensity. The revised algorithm accurately predicted cross-reactive Ab binding, improving the Matthews correlation coefficient from 0.42 to 0.74. These results form the basis for selecting the minimum number of N-terminal M peptides to include in potentially broadly efficacious multivalent vaccines that could impact the overall global burden of group A streptococcal diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A new method for inferring city emissions and lifetimes of nitrogen oxides from high-resolution nitrogen dioxide observations: a model study

We present a new method to infer emissions and lifetimes of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) based on tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) observations together with reanalysis wind fields for cities located in polluted backgrounds. Since the accuracy of the method is difficult to assess due to lack of “true values” that can be used as a benchmark, we apply the method to synthetic NO 2 observations derived from the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model at a high horizontal spatial resolution of 4 km × 4 km for cities over the continental United States. We compare the inferred emissions and lifetimes with the values given by the NU-WRF model to evaluate the method. The method is applicable to 26 US cities. The derived results are generally in good agreement with the values given by the model, with the relative differences of 2 % ± 17 % (mean ± standard deviation) and 15 % ± 25 % for lifetimes and emissions, respectively. Our investigation suggests that the use of wind data prior to the satellite overpass time improves the performance of the method. The correlation coefficients between inferred and NU-WRF lifetimes increase from 0.56 to 0.79 and for emissions increase from 0.88 to 0.96 when comparing results based on wind fields sampled simultaneously with satellite observations and averaged over 9 h data prior to satellite observations, respectively. We estimate that uncertainties in NO x lifetime and emissions arising from the method are approximately 15 % and 20 %, respectively, for typical (US) cities. The total uncertainties reach up to 43% (lifetimes) and 45% (emissions) by considering the additional uncertainties associated with satellite NO 2 observations and wind data. We expect this new method to be applicable to NO 2 observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and geostationary satellites, such as Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) or the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring Pollution (TEMPO) instrument, to estimate urban NO x emissions and lifetimes globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summertime ozone pollution in China affected by stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

In recent years, the near-surface ozone (O 3 ) level has been rising fast in China, with increasing damage to human health and ecosystems. In this study, the impact of stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on interannual variations in summertime tropospheric O 3 over China is investigated based on GEOS-Chem model simulations and satellite retrievals. QBO has a significant positive correlation with near-surface O 3 concentrations over central China (92.5–112.5° E, 26–38° N) when the sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, with a correlation coefficient of 0.53, but QBO has no significant effect on O 3 under the cold SST anomaly. Compared to the easterly phase of QBO, the near-surface O 3 concentrations have an increase of up to 3 ppb (5% relative to the average) over central China during its westerly phase under the warm SST anomaly. O 3 also increases above the surface and up to the upper troposphere, with a maximum increase of 2–3 ppb (3%–5%) in 850–500 hPa over central China when comparing westerly phase to easterly phase. Process-based analysis and sensitivity simulations suggest that the O 3 increase over central China is mainly attributed to the anomalous downward transport of O 3 during the westerly phase of QBO when a warm SST anomaly occurs in the eastern tropical Pacific, while the local chemical reactions and horizontal transport processes partly offset the O 3 increase. This work suggests a potentially important role of QBO and the related vertical transport process in affecting near-surface O 3 air quality, with an indication for O 3 pollution prediction and prevention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement report: The Fifth International Workshop on Ice Nucleation phase 1 (FIN-01): intercomparison of single-particle mass spectrometers

Knowledge of the chemical composition and mixing state of aerosols at a single-particle level is critical for gaining insights into atmospheric processes. One common tool to make these measurements is single-particle mass spectrometry. There remains a need to compare the performance of different single-particle mass spectrometers (SPMSs). An intercomparison of SPMSs was conducted at the Aerosol Interaction and Dynamics in the Atmosphere (AIDA) chamber at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) in November 2014, as part of the first phase of the Fifth International Workshop on Ice Nucleation (FIN-01). In this paper we compare size distributions and mass spectra of atmospherically relevant particle types measured by five SPMSs. These include different minerals, desert and soil dusts, soot, bioaerosol (Snomax; protein granule), secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and SOA-coated mineral particles. Most SPMSs reported similar vacuum aerodynamic diameter (d va ) within typical instrumental ranges from ~100–200 nm (lower limit) to ~2–3 µm (upper limit). In general, all SPMSs exhibited a wide dynamic range (up to ~10 3 ) and high signal-to-noise ratio (up to ~10 4 ) in mass spectra. Common spectral features with small diversities in mass spectra were found with high average Pearson's correlation coefficients, i.e., for average positive spectra r avg-pos =0.74 ± 0.12 and average negative spectra r avg-neg =0.67 ± 0.22. We found that instrument-specific detection efficiency (DE) was more dependent on particle size than particle type, and particle identification favored the use of bipolar, rather than monopolar, instruments. Particle classification from “blind experiments” showed that all instruments differentiated SOA, soot, and soil dust and detected subtle changes in the particle internal mixing but had difficulties differentiating among specific mineral types and dusts. This study helps to further understand the capabilities and limitations of the single-particle mass spectrometry technique in general and the specific performance of the instrument in characterizing atmospheric aerosol particles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cloud condensation nuclei concentrations derived from the CAMS reanalysis

Determining number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is one of the first steps in the chain in analysis of cloud droplet formation, the direct microphysical link between aerosols and cloud droplets, and a process key for aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI). However, due to sparse coverage of in situ measurements and difficulties associated with retrievals from satellites, a global exploration of their magnitude, source as well as temporal and spatial distribution cannot be easily obtained. Thus, a better representation of CCN numbers is one of the goals for quantifying ACI processes and achieving uncertainty-reduced estimates of their associated radiative forcing. Here, we introduce a new CCN dataset which is derived based on aerosol mass mixing ratios from the latest Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA) in a diagnostic model that uses CAMSRA aerosol properties and a simplified kappa-Köhler framework suitable for global models. The emitted aerosols in CAMSRA are not only based on input from emission inventories using aerosol observations, they also have a strong tie to satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) as this is assimilated as a constraining factor in the reanalysis. Furthermore, the reanalysis interpolates for cases of poor or missing retrievals and thus allows for a full spatiotemporal quantification of CCN numbers. The derived CCN dataset captures the general trend and spatial and temporal distribution of total CCN number concentrations and CCN from different aerosol species. A brief evaluation with ground-based in situ measurements demonstrates the improvement of the modelled CCN over the sole use of AOD as a proxy for CCN as the overall correlation coefficient improved from 0.37 to 0.71. However, we find the modelled CCN from CAMSRA to be generally high biased and find a particular erroneous overestimation at one heavily polluted site which emphasises the need for further validation. The CCN dataset (https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/QUAERERE_CCNCAMS_v1, Block, 2023), which is now freely available to users, features 3-D CCN number concentrations of global coverage for various supersaturations and aerosol species covering the years 2003–2021 with daily frequency. This dataset is one of its kind as it offers lots of opportunities to be used for evaluation in models and in ACI studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of streamflow in a 30 km long reach spanning 5 years using OpenFOAM 5.x

Abstract. Developing accurate and efficient modeling techniques for streamflow at the tens-of-kilometers spatial scale and multi-year temporal scale is critical for evaluating and predicting the impact of climate- and human-induced discharge variations on river hydrodynamics. However, achieving such a goal is challenging because of limited surveys of streambed hydraulic roughness, uncertain boundary condition specifications, and high computational costs. We demonstrate that accurate and efficient three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic modeling of natural rivers at 30 km and 5-year scales is feasible using the following three techniques within OpenFOAM, an open-source computational fluid dynamics platform: (1) generating a distributed hydraulic roughness field for the streambed by integrating water-stage observation data, a rough wall theory, and a local roughness optimization and adjustment strategy; (2) prescribing the boundary condition for the inflow and outflow by integrating precomputed results of a one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model with the 3-D model; and (3) reducing computational time using multiple parallel runs constrained by 1-D inflow and outflow boundary conditions. Streamflow modeling for a 30 km long reach in the Columbia River (CR) over 58 months can be achieved in less than 6 d using 1.1 million CPU hours. The mean error between the modeled and the observed water stages for our simulated CR reach ranges from −16 to 9 cm (equivalent to approximately ±7 % relative to the average water depth) at seven locations during most of the years between 2011 and 2019. We can reproduce the velocity distribution measured by the acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The correlation coefficients of the depth-averaged velocity between the model and ADCP measurements are in the range between 0.71 and 0.83 at 75 % of the survey cross sections. With the validated model, we further show that the relative importance of dynamic pressure versus hydrostatic pressure varies with discharge variations and topography heterogeneity. Given the model's high accuracy and computational efficiency, the model framework provides a generic approach to evaluate and predict the impacts of climate- and human-induced discharge variations on river hydrodynamics at tens-of-kilometers and decadal scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of E3SM land model snow simulations over the western United States

Abstract. Seasonal snow has crucial impacts on climate, ecosystems, and humans, but it is vulnerable to global warming. The land component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) mechanistically simulates snow processes from accumulation, canopy interception, compaction, and snow aging to melt. Although high-quality field measurements, remote sensing snow products, and data assimilation products with high spatio-temporal resolution are available, there has been no systematic evaluation of the snow properties and phenology in ELM. This study comprehensively evaluates ELM snow simulations over the western United States at 0.125∘ resolution during 2001–2019 using the Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) in situ networks, MODIS remote sensing products (i.e., MCD43 surface albedo product), the spatially and temporally complete (STC) snow-covered area and grain size (MODSCAG) and MODIS dust and radiative forcing in snow (MODDRFS) products (STC-MODSCAG/STC-MODDRFS), and the snow property inversion from remote sensing (SPIReS) product and two data assimilation products of snow water equivalent and snow depth – i.e., University of Arizona (UA) and SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). Overall the ELM simulations are consistent with the benchmarking datasets and reproduce the spatio-temporal patterns, interannual variability, and elevation gradients for different snow properties including snow cover fraction (fsno), surface albedo (αsur) over snow cover regions, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow depth (Dsno). However, there are large biases of fsno with dense forest cover and αsur in the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada in winter, compared to the MODIS products. There are large discrepancies of snow albedo, snow grain size, and light-absorbing particle-induced snow albedo reduction between ELM and the MODIS products, attributed to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing data, snow aging processes in ELM, and remote sensing retrievals. Against UA and SNODAS, ELM has a mean bias of −20.7 mm (−35.9 %) and −20.4 mm (−35.5 %), respectively, for spring, and −13.8 mm (−27.8 %) and −10.2 mm (−22.2 %), respectively, for winter. ELM shows a relatively high correlation with SNOTEL SWE, with mean correlation coefficients of 0.69 but negative mean biases of −122.7 mm. Compared to the snow phenology of STC-MODSCAG and SPIReS, ELM shows delayed snow accumulation onset dates by 17.3 and 12.4 d, earlier snow end dates by 35.5 and 26.8 d, and shorter snow durations by 52.9 and 39.5 d, respectively. This study underscores the need for diagnosing model biases and improving ELM representations of snow properties and snow phenology in mountainous areas for more credible simulation and future projection of mountain snowpack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Can reanalysis products outperform mesoscale numerical weather prediction models in modeling the wind resource in simple terrain?

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally considered more accurate than reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy, given their finer spatial resolution and more comprehensive physics. However, advancements in the latest ERA-5 reanalysis product motivate an assessment on whether ERA-5 can model wind speeds as well as a state-of-the-art NWP model – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. We consider this research question for both simple terrain and offshore applications. Specifically, we compare wind profiles from ERA-5 and the preliminary WRF runs of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED) to those observed by lidars at a site in Oklahoma, United States, and in a United States Atlantic offshore wind energy area. We find that ERA-5 shows a significant negative bias (~-1ms-1) at both locations, with a larger bias at the land-based site. WTK-LED-predicted wind speed profiles show a limited negative bias (~-0.5ms-1) offshore and a slight positive bias (~+0.5ms-1) at the land-based site. On the other hand, we find that ERA-5 outperforms WTK-LED in terms of the centered root-mean-square error (cRMSE) and correlation coefficient, for both the land-based and offshore cases, in all atmospheric stability conditions. We find that WTK-LED's higher cRMSE is caused by its tendency to overpredict the amplitude of the wind speed diurnal cycle. At the land-based site, this is partially caused by wind plant wake effects not being accurately captured by WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗