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At least 487 records · Page 27

Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

Coupling the Solar-Wind/IMF to the Ionosphere through the High Latitude Cusps

Magnetic merging is a primary means for coupling energy from the solar wind into the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The location and nature of the process remain as open questions. By correlating measurements form diverse locations and using large-scale MHD models to put the measurements in context, it is possible to constrain out interpretations of the global and meso-scale dynamics of magnetic merging. Recent evidence demonstrates that merging often occurs at high latitudes in the vicinity of the cusps. The location is in part controlled by the clock angle in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Y-Z plane. In fact, B(sub Y) bifurcated the cusp relative to source regions. The newly opened field lines may couple to the ionosphere at MLT locations of as much as 3 hr away from local noon. On the other side of noon the cusp may be connected to merging sites in the opposite hemisphere. In face, the small convection cell is generally driven by opposite hemisphere merging. B(sub X) controls the timing of the interaction and merging sites in each hemisphere, which may respond to planar features in the IMF at different times. Correlation times are variable and are controlled by the dynamics of the tilt of the interplanetary electric field phase plane. The orientation of the phase plane may change significantly on time scales of tens of minutes. Merging is temporally variable and may be occurring at multiple sites simultaneously. Accelerated electrons from the merging process excite optical signatures at the foot of the newly opened field lines. All-sky photometer observations of 557.7 nm emissions in the cusp region provide a "television picture" of the merging process and may be used to infer the temporal and spatial variability of merging, tied to variations in the IMF.

Maynard, Nelson C.↗

The terminal area simulation system. Volume 2: Verification cases

The numerical simulation of five case studies are presented and are compared with available data in order to verify the three-dimensional version of the Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS). A spectrum of convective storm types are selected for the case studies. Included are: a High-Plains supercell hailstorm, a small and relatively short-lived High-Plains cumulonimbus, a convective storm which produced the 2 August 1985 DFW microburst, a South Florida convective complex, and a tornadic Oklahoma thunderstorm. For each of the cases the model results compared reasonably well with observed data. In the simulations of the supercell storms many of their characteristic features were modeled, such as the hook echo, BWER, mesocyclone, gust fronts, giant persistent updraft, wall cloud, flanking-line towers, anvil and radar reflectivity overhang, and rightward veering in the storm propagation. In the simulation of the tornadic storm a horseshoe-shaped updraft configuration and cyclic changes in storm intensity and structure were noted. The simulation of the DFW microburst agreed remarkably well with sparse observed data. The simulated outflow rapidly expanded in a nearly symmetrical pattern and was associated with a ringvortex. A South Florida convective complex was simulated and contained updrafts and downdrafts in the form of discrete bubbles. The numerical simulations, in all cases, always remained stable and bounded with no anomalous trends.

Proctor, F. H.↗

The effect of ablation injection on radiative and convective heating

A viscous shock-layer analysis is for calculating high energy equilibrium flow fields about blunt axisymmetric bodies is applied to the problem of massive ablation injection with radiation transport. A nongray radiation model is used that accounts for both line and continuum radiation. The solution method is direct and provides both stagnation and downstream solutions. Results for shock heated air show that phenolic-nylon injection is substantially more effective in reducing the wall radiant flux than air injection. Also, for large included body angles, the wall radiative flux and the coupled phenolic-nylon injection rate do not continue to decrease with increasing distance downstream.

Moss, J. N.↗

The Spatial Variation of Polar Rain Electrons and its Cause

It is generally accepted that field aligned electrons in the solar wind can follow field lines connected to Earth and precipitate in the polar ionosphere where they are known as polar rain. Few-hundred eV, field-aligned electrons of the solar wind "strahl" carry the interplanetary heat flux moving out from the sun and these electrons precipitate in either the northern or southern hemisphere depending on the magnetic field direction. These electrons produce enhanced polar rain in one hemisphere or the other although weaker polar rain is usually produced in the opposite hemisphere by whatever electrons are moving in the opposite direction. Although much evidence exists for this simple free entry mechanism, it has also long been known that there are spatial variations in the energies and intensities of the precipitating electrons. The present work compares electron distribution functions measured by the ACE spacecraft in the solar wind with those measured by the DMSP spacecraft at 800 km altitude over the polar cap. It is found that shifting the DMSP distribution functions in energy by amounts ranging from 10's to a few hundred eV produces quite good agreement with simultaneous ACE measurements. Over most of the polar cap this DMSP energy shift must be positive to achieve this agreement, suggesting the electrons have been decelerated by a field aligned potential as they move from the solar wind to low altitudes. The largest shifts occur on the nightside and on the dawn or dusk side, with the latter depending on the plasma convection pattern which is controlled by the orientation of the IMF. Nearer the cusp the shift is smaller or even negative. Since more massive tailward flowing magnetosheath ions are unable io follow the field lines into the magnetotail like the electrons, a field aligned potential is expected to develop to exclude low energy electrons and prevent an excessive charge imbalance. Such a potential would also produce the deceleration of those electrons that reach low altitudes. This improved understanding of polar rain should increase the utility of polar rain measurements as a diagnostic of the magnetosphere magnetic field configuration.

Fairfield, D. H.↗

A model for polar cap electric fields

A model is proposed relating polar cap ionospheric electric fields to the parameters of the solar wind near the orbit of the earth. The model ignores the notion of field line merging. An essential feature is the role played by velocity shear instabilities in regions of the outer magnetosphere, in which mapping of the magnetosheath electric field would produce sunward convection. The anomalous resistivity which arises from velocity shear turbulence, suffices to essentially disconnect the magnetosphere from the magnetosheath, at any place where that resistivity is large enough. The magnetosheath-magnetosphere system, as a consequence, acts as a kind of diode or rectifier for the magnetosheath electric fields. Predictions of the model are compared with several observations related to polar cap convection.

Dangelo, N.↗

On the relationship of the plasmapause to the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval and to the inner edge of the plasma sheet

ISEE 1 observations of the plasmapause are compared with simultaneous observations of the electron plasma sheet and also the auroral oval observed in DMSP photographs. Only a limited amount of appropriate data was available for the comparisons: the plasmapause/plasma sheet inner edge comparisons were restricted to the early and late morning sectors, while there were two satisfactory comparisons of the plasmapause and the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval in the evening sector. However, these examples indicate that the plasmapause location often coincides to within a change in L of about 0.1-0.2 with both the plasma sheet inner boundary and the field line threading the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval. This co-location of the plasmapause and the plasma sheet inner edge may be due to shielding of the magnetospheric convection electric field by an Alfven layer located at the inner edge of the plasma sheet as discussed by Jaggi and Wolf (1973) and others.

Horwitz, J. L.↗

Magnetospheric interaction with Triton's ionosphere

The large electron densities measured by the Voyager radio occultation experiment are attributed to the precipitation of magnetospheric electrons with energy above 10 keV. Because the ionospheric electric Pedersen conductivity of Triton is about 10,000-20,000 mho and the Alfven conductance is about 3.5 mho, direct convective flow of plasma into the essentially infinitely conducting ionosphere is negligible. Magnetospheric electrons are transported to Triton's ionopause by curvature drift as a result of weak magnetic field line draping in a sub-Alfvenic plasma interaction with Triton. At the ionopause energetic electrons have a high probability of elastic and inelastic scattering and precipitate into the upper atmosphere. The average power dissipation is estimated to be about (2 - 3) x 10 to the 8th W.

Strobel, Darrell F.↗

Dynamical instability as the cause of the massive outbursts in Eta Carinae and other luminous blue variables

A new type of stellar envelope structure has been computationally discovered at very high stellar masses. The outer part of the envelope resembles a nearly detached, diffusely filled shell overlying an ultrahot surface of small radius. This structural anomaly is caused by a large iron bump occurring in the new opacities of Iglesias et al. (1992). The new stellar models with normal metallicity encounter a strong ionization-induced dynamical instability in the outer envelope as they rapidly transit the H-R diagram after the end of central hydrogen burning. Preliminary evolutionary and hydrodynamical calculations successfully mimic the most basic observed properties of Eta Carinae and other very luminous blue variables. The Humphreys-Davidson sloped line in the H-R diagram, however, seems to be unrelated to these variables, and is instead the observed terminus of the main-sequence phase of evolution if convective core overshooting is insignificant.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

Evaluating and Understanding Parameterized Convective Processes and Their Role in the Development of Mesoscale Precipitation Systems

Research efforts during the first year focused on numerical simulations of two convective systems with the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model. The first of these systems was tropical cyclone Irma, which occurred in 1987 in Australia's Gulf of Carpentaria during the AMEX field program. Comparison simulations of this system were done with two different convective parameterization schemes (CPS's), the Kain-Fritsch (1993 - KF) and the Betts-Miller (Betts 1986- BM) schemes. The second system was the June 10-11 1985 squall line simulation, which occurred over the Kansas-Oklahoma region during the PRE-STORM experiment. Simulations of this system using the KF scheme were examined in detail.

Fritsch, J. Michael↗

A Possible Explanation for the Z-R Parameter Inconsistency when Comparing Stratiform and Convective Rainfall

The well-known Z-R power law Z A R(sup b) uses two parameters, A and b, in order to relate rainfall rate R to measured weather radar reflectivity Z. A common method used by researchers is to compute Z and R from disdrometer data and then extract the A-b parameter pair from a log-linear line fit to a scatter plot of Z-R pairs. Even though it may seem far more truthful to extract the parameter pair from a fit of radar Z(sub R) versus gauge rainfall rate R(sub G), the extreme difference in spatial and temporal sampling volumes between radar and rain gauge creates a slew of problems that can generally only be solved by using rain gauge arrays and long sampling averages. Disdrometer derived A-b parameters are easily obtained and can provide information for the study of stratiform versus convective rainfall. However, an inconsistency appears when comparing averaged A-b pairs from various researchers. Values of b range from 1.26 to 1.51 for both stratiform and convective events. Paradoxically the values of A fall into three groups: 150 to 200 for convective; 200 to 400 for stratiform; and 400 to 500 again for convective. This apparent inconsistency can be explained by computing the A-b pair using the gamma DSD coupled with a modified drop terminal velocity model, v(D) alpha D(sup beta) - w, where w is a somewhat artificial constant vertical velocity of the air above the disdrometer. This model predicts three regions of A, corresponding to w less than 0, w = 0, and w greater than 0, which approximately matches observed data.

gamma DSD↗

On-line mass spectrometric monitoring of the polymerization of a phenolic-resin-based material

Polymerization of phenolic-resin-based materials requires elevated temperatures. The low thermal conductivity of these materials has led to the use of dielectric heating techniques in lieu of standard convection oven heating to obtain a satisfactory cure. The curing rate and therefore the quality of the cured material depends on the heating rate and maximum temperature attained, parameters which are extremely difficult to measure in dielectric heating units. The dielectric curing of these materials was monitored by using a mass spectrometer to measure the partial pressure of phenol in the gas evolved during polymerization. The resulting plots of phenol partial pressure as a function of time have a characteristic shape, and these may be used to indicate the attainment of complete curing. The validity of the mass spectrometric technique was confirmed by chemical analysis of the polymerized samples.

Aikens, D. A.↗

Efficient Space–Time Reduced Order Model for Linear Dynamical Systems in Python Using Less than 120 Lines of Code

A classical reduced order model (ROM) for dynamical problems typically involves only the spatial reduction of a given problem. Recently, a novel space–time ROM for linear dynamical problems has been developed [Choi et al., Space–tume reduced order model for large-scale linear dynamical systems with application to Boltzmann transport problems, Journal of Computational Physics, 2020], which further reduces the problem size by introducing a temporal reduction in addition to a spatial reduction without much loss in accuracy. The authors show an order of a thousand speed-up with a relative error of less than 10−5 for a large-scale Boltzmann transport problem. In this work, we present for the first time the derivation of the space–time least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) projection for linear dynamical systems and its corresponding block structures. Utilizing these block structures, we demonstrate the ease of construction of the space–time ROM method with two model problems: 2D diffusion and 2D convection diffusion, with and without a linear source term. For each problem, we demonstrate the entire process of generating the full order model (FOM) data, constructing the space–time ROM, and predicting the reduced-order solutions, all in less than 120 lines of Python code. We compare our LSPG method with the traditional Galerkin method and show that the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10−3) to O(10−4) relative errors for these problems. Depending on parameter–separability, online speed-ups may or may not be achieved. For the FOMs with parameter–separability, the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10) online speed-ups. Finally, we present an error analysis for the space–time LSPG projection and derive an error bound, which shows an improvement compared to traditional spatial Galerkin ROM methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Skylab barium plasma injection experiments. I - Convection observations

Two barium-plasma injection experiments were carried out during magnetically active periods in conjunction with the Skylab 3 mission. The high-explosive shaped charges were launched near dawn on November 27 and December 4, 1973, UT. In both cases, the AE index was near 400 gammas, and extensive pulsating auroras covered the sky. The first experiment, Skylab Alpha, occurred in the waning phase of a 1000-gamma substorm, and the second, Skylab Beta, occurred in the expansive phase of an 800-gamma substorm. In both, the convection was generally magnetically eastward, with 100-km-level electric fields near 40 mV/m. However, in the Alpha experiment the observed orientation of the barium flux tube fit theoretical field lines having no parallel current, but the Beta flux-tube orientation indicated a substantial upward parallel sheet current.

Wescott, E. M.↗

Aerothermodynamic environment for Jovian entry with silica heat shield

Solutions are presented for the stagnation-region shock-layer equations, including radiative transfer with spectral lines and silica ablation during Jovian entry. Results for variations of entry angle, sphere-cone configuration, and atmospheric model are given. The effect of silica ablation on the radiative and convective surface heating is correlated with the ratio of the wall to free-stream mass flux. Correlations are also given for spectral distributions. The effect of newly obtained SiO radiation properties on the surface heating is examined.

Green, M. J.↗

Electron and ion acceleration by strong electrostatic turbulence

It is noted that, for waves observed on auroral field lines, ion trapping may be important, affecting models of transverse ion acceleration. The strength of the electrostatic ion cyclotron turbulence observed in the auroral zone may be attributed to the large convective growth rate that is associated with this mode. These waves may be destabilized by the enhancement in the field-aligned current that results from the onset of a magnetospheric substorm. The rise in the field-aligned current is associated with the passage of shear mode Alfven waves between the magnetosphere and ionosphere. When these Alfven waves have a perpendicular wavelength comparable to the ion gyroradius, they carry a parallel electric field that can accelerate the plasma in the topside auroral ionosphere, destabilizing the electrostatic ion cyclotron mode.

Lysak, R. L.↗

Magnetic probing of the solar interior

The magnetic field patterns in the region beneath the solar photosphere is determined. An approximate method for downward extrapolation of line of sight magnetic field measurements taken at the solar photosphere was developed. It utilizes the mean field theory of electromagnetism in a form thought to be appropriate for the solar convection zone. A way to test that theory is proposed. The straightforward application of the lowest order theory with the complete model fit to these data does not indicate the existence of any reasonable depth at which flux conservation is achieved.

Benton, E. R.↗

Ion precipitation from the inner plasma sheet due to stochastic diffusion

Plasma sheet ions do not conserve their first adiabatic invariant when the magnetic field is appreciably tail-like. They do conserve a different adiabatic invariant but only to linear, rather than exponential, accuracy in the appropriate small parameter. Thus significant stochastic diffusion can occur for particles crossing the separatrix dividing the segments of orbits on which the particles cross and do not cross the tail midplane. Such ions can escape the plasma sheet and precipitate into the atmosphere. Stochastic scattering is strongest from those field lines where the ion's Larmor period in the normal component of the neutral sheet magnetic field approximately equals its bounce period. By comparing the rates of stochastic ion loss and convection in the tail, it is possible to estimate the location and thickness of the inner edge of the ion plasma sheet created by stochastic ion loss. Ions of different masses precipitate into the atmosphere at slightly different locations. Since wave particle interactions are not needed, this precipitation will always occur and should be particularly evident during quiet geomagnetic conditions, when it is less likely to be masked by other precipitation mechanisms.

Zelenyi, L.↗