Results for “Confidence” — Page 27

DOE OSTI2022

Challenge Problem 1: Preliminary Model Development and Assessment of Flexible Heat Transfer Modeling Approaches

This report presents the modeling progress of a university consortium studying flexible modeling for turbulent heat transfer. In the context of advanced nuclear reactor design, where challenges include non-unity Prandtl fluids, free and mixed convection, and transitional flow, computational fluid dynamics methods are underutilized due to low confidence in modeling approaches and high computational cost. This report evaluates the performance of engineering CFD models in diabatic, buoyant turbulent flow. It finds that all turbulence models including several variants of the k-ε and k-ω models struggle to predict accurate turbulent momentum and heat transfer in such flows. The Nusselt numbers have been compared between the models and the DNS data, where calculations have been performed for each case and trends have shown a good agreement between DNS estimated Nusselt numbers and available correlations as well as experimental data. A novel DNS correlation for high Pr cases as they are transitioning from mixed convection to natural convection has been proposed. While Nusselt number errors relative to DNS range from 20% to 50%, the models capture similar trends to DNS with respect to Nusselt suppression and amplification under varying levels of buoyancy effect. This report also highlights model form error as a significant contributor to CFD predictions and proposes a framework for quantifying model error and improving confidence in CFD calculations. To improve the predictive capability of engineering CFD models, data-driven approaches for turbulence models are investigated. Theoretical frameworks based on the invariant tensor / vector basis neural networks for prediction of Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat fluxes are employed. The models are developed using direct numerical simulations data for forced convection flows of different fluids in vertical planar channel domain. The framework is implemented in spectral element solvers Nek5000 / nekRS and has shown a potential for future development and consideration of mixed convection flows.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering (LAMÉ) 5.10

Accurate and efficient constitutive modeling remains a cornerstone issue for solid mechanics analysis. Over the years, the LAMÉ advanced material model library has grown to address this challenge by implementing models capable of describing material systems spanning soft polymers to stiff ceramics including both isotropic and anisotropic responses. Inelastic behaviors including (visco)plasticity, damage, and fracture have all incorporated for use in various analyses. This multitude of options and flexibility, however, comes at the cost of many capabilities, features, and responses and the ensuing complexity in the resulting implementation. Therefore, to enhance confidence and enable the utilization of the LAMÉ library in application, this effort seeks to document and verify the various models in the LAMÉ library. Specifically, the broader strategy, organization, and interface of the library itself is first presented. The physical theory, numerical implementation, and user guide for a large set of models is then discussed. Importantly, a number of verification tests are performed with each model to not only have confidence in the model itself but also highlight some important response characteristics and features that may be of interest to end-users. Finally, in looking ahead to the future, approaches to add material models to this library and further expand the capabilities are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model 9975 O-Ring Fixture Long-Term Leak Performance (FY2022 Status Report)

Leak testing experiments to monitor the aging performance of Viton® GLT and GLT-S O-rings used in the model 9975 shipping package has been ongoing since 2004 at Savannah River National Laboratory. Seventy tests using mock-up 9975 primary containment vessels (PCVs) with GLT O-rings were assembled and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 450 °F. Due to material substitution, fourteen tests with GLT-S O-rings were initiated in 2008 and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 400 °F. The conditioning temperatures are elevated compared to the calculated maximum O-ring temperature in a 9975 package in storage, 158 °F, to accelerate aging and enable observations of O-ring failures in a reasonable time frame. The fixtures are leak tested periodically and all GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 350 °F or above have failed to maintain a leak-tight seal. Eight GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 300 °F have failed after 2.8 to 5.7 years at temperature while the remaining fixtures at 300 °F were retired from testing following more than five years without failure. There has been one GLT O-ring fixture which failed after 13.4 years aging at 200 °F. However, 20 other GLT O-rings aging at 200 °F have remained leak-tight for over 14 years and remain in test. No failures have yet been observed in GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 270 °F for 10.4 years. All GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 300 °F or above have failed their leak test. No failures have yet been observed in GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 250 °F for 12.5 years. This year, one GLT-S O-ring fixture failed after 12.4 years aging at 200 °F. Data from the O-ring fixtures are generally consistent with results from compression stress-relaxation testing, and provide confidence in the predictive models based on those results. However, uncertainty exists in extrapolating these elevated temperature results to the lower temperatures of interest for normal storage in K-Area Complex (KAC). Oxygen consumption testing, which includes results from temperatures near KAC normal storage temperatures, is ongoing to provide further confidence and corroborate these extrapolations. The collective data from these test efforts suggest the minimum O-ring service life at KAC normal storage conditions should be at least 34 years for GLT and GLT-S O-rings. Measurement of compression set in O-rings removed from failed fixtures, compared to that from KAC surveillance O-rings, indicate significant margin remains for O-rings still in service in 9975 packages in KAC. Aging and periodic leak testing will continue for the remaining 25 mock-up PCV fixtures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary IHLW Formulation Algorithm Description

This report documents the initial algorithm that could be used by the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) in batching high-level waste (HLW) and glass-forming chemicals (GFCs) in the HLW melter feed preparation vessel (MFPV) (HFP-VSL-00001 and -00005). Not all Hanford tank waste can be accommodated by the models developed for this report and significant expansion of the model boundaries could be achievable to reduce the WTP mission life and total canister production count. The immobilized HLW (IHLW) must meet a series of constraints to be acceptable for disposal in the Monitored Geologic Repository, which are contained in the Specification 1 of the Contract (DOE 2000), the Waste Acceptance Product Specifications (WAPS, DOE 1996), and the Waste Acceptance System Requirements Document (WASRD, DOE 2007). The IHLW Waste Form Compliance Plan (WCP, 24590-HLW-PL-RT-07-0001, Rev 3) specifies that the formulation algorithm will be developed and used to comply with the constraints associated with glass composition and properties. This report is not an engineering calculation, does not provide design input, and is not an engineering study. Algorithm inputs include the chemical analyses of the blended HLW in the HLW blend vessel (HBV) (HLP-VSL-00028, the volume and composition of the MFPV heel, the volume and composition of the MFPV after waste addition, the volume and composition of MFPV batch after GFC addition, the compositions of individual GFCs, and the mass of glass in each canister. In addition to these inputs, uncertainties in the HLW composition and processing parameters are included in the algorithm. Using the above inputs, the algorithm calculates the following outputs: 1) the volume of HLW to be transferred from the HBV to the MFPV, 2) the mass of each GFC for addition to the MFPV, 3) the composition of the glass that will be produced along with uncertainties, and 4) the predicted properties, with associated uncertainties, of the resulting IHLW. The algorithm uses the property-composition models to calculate properties with associated uncertainties and compares them with various constraints to ensure that a processable feed is formulated and a compliant IHLW is produced. The GFC additions are determined using an optimization approach to provide high confidence that the HLW glass will meet all product quality requirements and key processing constraints. For most HLW batches there are many possible glass compositions that meet all constraints. In these cases, the glass composition is optimized for a series of target component concentrations and target property values. The algorithm also incorporates process measurement and product quality uncertainties, based on the work of Piepel et al. (2005). Estimates of the various process and measurement uncertainties that affect glass compositions and predicted glass properties have been previously reported (Piepel et al. 2005, 2006) and the impacts of these estimated uncertainties on the IHLW composition envelope that meets product quality and processing-related properties with sufficient confidence were evaluated. The details of work performed to date to develop this initial GFC addition and batching algorithm are summarized in Sections 4 and 5. An example data set is used to illustrate the calculations of the algorithm summarized in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, there is a statement of the required work to achieve a final operational IHLW formulation control algorithm. This report is not an engineering calculation, does not provide design input, and is not an engineering study.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stirred-Reactor Coupon Analysis: An International Round Robin Study

The objective of this task was to determine the precision of the SRCA technique when used to determine the dilute condition corrosion rate. To this end, an interlaboratory round robin study was conducted per the instructions in ASTM Practice E691 to measure the precision with which the SRCA test method can be conducted. Twelve independent labs from eleven different institutions each evaluated four glass compositions in three different conditions. The ASTM procedures recommend at least 6 labs participate in a round robin testing the same 3 materials in the same conditions to determine precision. In this case, 12 labs each performed 12 independent tests. This was only possible thanks to the multi-glass testing capability of the SRCA test. A total of 108 duplicate pairs were used to calculate the repeatability of the tests, with the same glass tested in the same vessel, producing as identical conditions as possible for the replicates. These test results were quite tightly clustered, with a median difference from the average value of the pair of only 2.9%. Based on the calculations outlined in ASTM E177-20 and a measured standard deviation of 4.74%, the intralaboratory repeatability limit (r) was calculated to be within 13.3% of the expected value with 95% confidence level. The reproducibility limit (R) of the test was examined using all 277 data points from the round robin. Because of the differences in dissolution rates due to pH variability and intrinsically for the 12 conditions tested, the reproducibility limits for each condition and overall were calculated from the percent relative residual value for each test. The SRCA test is expected to be reproducible within 64% of the expected value with a 95% confidence level.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Small Angle X-Ray Scattering and Polymers

Polymers are some of the most versatile and useful materials on this planet. Properties of polymers are a result of their processing history, chemical makeup, and physical structure. Therefore, characterization is necessary to develop new polymer formulations and processes. Many established techniques for polymer characterization are destructive, and alternative methods that don’t destroy samples are in high demand. Thermal analysis techniques such as differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) yield important characteristic information for polymer samples while destroying the sample. Non-destructive strategies such as X ray diffraction (XRD) or small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) can also find polymer characteristics while preserving a sample’s attributes. Sample preservation is desirable when investigating novel formulation and processing methods. SAXS analysis will be done on two different polymers: polyethylene, and a triblock copolymer. Using these two polymers allows for confidence between tests as polyethylene is very common, and well understood. Polyethylene analysis will be done first, and when methods have been refined so that the SAXS data matches accepted thermal analysis values for HDPE, there will be confidence to use the same analysis on block copolymers. Block copolymers remain relatively unexplored, so SAXS data will yield valuable information on their characteristics. Understanding the mechanical properties of these polymers is paramount to their application in upcycling, a process by which waste plastic can be converted into a higher value commodity. For this project, the upcycling process will be done via 3-dimensional (3d) printing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bifacial PV Module Energy Modeling Validation Study

The cost delta between monofacial and bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules was decreasing in 2018 when this study was initially proposed, making bifacial modules an attractive offering. However, there were limited field studies available that could be considered utility-scale representative, and PV module manufacturers were stating large ranges for the expected energy yield improvements of bifacial technology. This generated uncertainties regarding bifacial performance gains and the actual LCOE (levelized cost of energy). There was also relatively low confidence in the industry’s energy modeling tools’ ability to accurately predict bifacial energy yield, meaning that early adopters of bifacial modules were not able to fully account for the increased energy yield in their energy and financial models. The intent of this project was to provide the solar industry with greater certainty on the energy yield gains of bifacial modules and provide higher confidence in the ability for different energy modeling software to model bifacial PV site performance. Achieving this would allow for bifacial technology to become bankable (i.e. accepted by Independent Engineers, site financiers and other PV site stakeholders), offering a step change in PV site performance that had not been seen since the widespread adoption of the single-axis tracker. Over the course of this study other economic factors including a significant tariff exemption for bifacial modules resulted in accelerated adoption of bifacial technology throughout the US utility scale solar segment. The number of early adopters increased rapidly, and with many investors accepting this module choice the question of bifacial bankability was seemingly answered faster than expected. However, PVEL’s study has still achieved significant accomplishments in demonstrating the accuracy of bifacial modeling across three different software platforms. The results of this study have shown that the mean biased error (MBE) between the field data and the predicted values from all three software platforms were aligned with a maximum MBE of 1.3% and a minimum MBE of -1.8%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pathways for Agricultural Decarbonization in the United States

In the United States, agricultural production is both a significant source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2022) and uniquely susceptible to climate change impacts (Vermeulen et al., 2012). Decarbonization solutions have been proposed for addressing agricultural GHGs; however, research has been limited in synthesizing qualitative and quantitative analysis of potential GHG mitigation solutions in the United States. In this report, we review U.S. agricultural GHG sources by activity and quantify potential mitigation solutions based on a comprehensive data and literature analysis. We also discuss agricultural carbon sequestration options to offset GHG emissions. In our analysis, we identified two significant and hard-to-abate GHG sources (N 2 O from soil management, and CH 4 from enteric fermentation from livestock) as well as high-impact GHG mitigation solutions (e.g. agroforestry, reforestation, and biochar application) and cross-cutting GHG mitigation solutions (renewable energy production, precision agriculture, no-till, integrated nutrient management, and biochar). This report is meant to provide initial analysis and establish a foundation for future agricultural decarbonization research - it is not an exhaustive analysis of all available studies. However, to our knowledge this report is the most comprehensive assessment of agricultural GHG emissions and associated mitigation opportunities in the United States to date. Future empirical research is recommended to close research gaps in different climates, soils, and agricultural systems. Meta-analyses for all mitigation solutions would increase confidence in the estimated GHG mitigation potentials. To conclude this report, we discuss short-term and long-term pathways for agricultural decarbonization in the United States, the importance of accounting for total GHG fluxes, potential co-benefits of agricultural decarbonization, analysis of study data confidence, and research gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving the Success of Underrepresented Populations in Computer and Computational Science Research with the CRA–WP Grad Cohort Workshops

The CRA–WP Grad Cohort Workshops are focused at the graduate level to maximize the likelihood participants will successfully complete their graduate degrees. Factors such as role models, skills, competence, confidence, mentoring, social support, and development of identity as a researcher help students to persist in graduate school, while factors such as sexism, racism, and dissatisfaction with their graduate program may cause them to leave. We, therefore, help first, second, and third year students build their skills, research strategies, and confidence; meet potential mentors from outside their institutions; develop connections with each other and with their research communities; and inform them about strategies for successful publishing, speaking, and advisor management strategies. By targeting early graduate students, we seek to help them stay in graduate school and in research.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Survey and Gap Prioritization of U.S. Electric Vehicle Charge Management Deployments

The goal of this study was to survey and characterize the scope of current technical and programmatic knowledge pertaining to EV charge management technologies and practices in the US and relevant international jurisdictions. This characterization of existing field demonstrations and knowledge derived were used to determine gaps in the SCM demonstration landscape. Addressing these gaps through research and demonstration could increase confidence in the U.S. that load management and EV charge control could achieve overarching societal benefits. A survey of charge management deployments and input from stakeholders was completed to determine the state-of-the-art of smart charge management (SCM) where SCM is defined as controlling the amount of power exchanged between chargers and EVs to meet customers' charging needs while also responding to external power demand or pricing signals to provide load management, resilience, or other benefits to the customer and electric grid. The survey was the basis of the gap analysis in this report and determines which areas are well understood, with high confidence, and which areas need further investigation. Existing examples of EV charge management are characterized here to determine aspects that are ready for widespread deployment and have been demonstrated in the field. These include demonstration studies, pilots, programs, and EV-specific tariffs. In all, 110 examples of charge management were characterized. The data sources were public literature and utility filings as well as targeted interviews. In addition, 43 interviews with stakeholders were conducted with a consistent set of questions used in each interview. This study prioritized gaps in demonstrated SCM capabilities based on 1) Urgency of the particular use-case to offset traditional grid assets, 2) Impact, extensibility, and scaling of results across the entire spectrum of 3000+ utility service territories including projected technical and market potential for a given grid service, and 3) Value of federal funding in addressing the gap, including potential to leverage and/or add scope to existing field demonstrations funded by other non-federal funding mechanisms.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering (LAMÉ) 5.20

Accurate and efficient constitutive modeling remains a cornerstone issue for solid mechanics analysis. Over the years, the LAMÉ advanced material model library has grown to address this challenge by implementing models capable of describing material systems spanning soft polymers to stiff ceramics including both isotropic and anisotropic responses. Inelastic behaviors including (visco)plasticity, damage, and fracture have all incorporated for use in various analyses. This multitude of options and flexibility, however, comes at the cost of many capabilities, features, and responses and the ensuing complexity in the resulting implementation. Therefore, to enhance confidence and enable the utilization of the LAMÉ library in application, this effort seeks to document and verify the various models in the LAMÉ library. Specifically, the broader strategy, organization, and interface of the library itself is first presented. The physical theory, numerical implementation, and user guide for a large set of models is then discussed. Importantly, a number of verification tests are performed with each model to not only have confidence in the model itself but also highlight some important response characteristics and features that may be of interest to end-users. Finally, in looking ahead to the future, approaches to add material models to this library and further expand the capabilities are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

RECON Label Quality Report

The final quality of any AI/ML system is directly related to the quality of the input data used to train the system. In this case, we are trying to build a reliable image classifier that can correctly identify electrical components in x-ray images. The classification confidence is directly related to the quality of the labels in the training data, which are used in developing the AI/ML classifier. Incorrect or incomplete labels can substantially hinder the performance of the system during the training process, as it tries to compensate for variations that should not exist. Image labels are entered by subject matter experts, and in general can be assumed to be correct. However, this is not a guarantee, so developing ways to measure label quality and help identify or reject bad labels is important, especially as the database continues to grow. Given the current size of the database, a full manual review of each component is not feasible. This report will highlight the current state of the “RECON” x-ray image database and summarize several recent developments to try to help ensure high quality labeling both now and in the future. Questions that we hope to answer with this development include: 1) Are there any components with incorrect labels? 2) Can we suggest labels for components that are marked “Unknown”? 3) What kind of overall confidence do we have in the quality of the existing labels? 4) What systems or procedures can we put in place to maximize label quality?

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering (LAMÉ) 5.18

Accurate and efficient constitutive modeling remains a cornerstone issue for solid mechanics analysis. Over the years, the LAMÉ advanced material model library has grown to address this challenge by implementing models capable of describing material systems spanning soft polymers to stiff ceramics including both isotropic and anisotropic responses. Inelastic behaviors including (visco)plasticity, damage, and fracture have all incorporated for use in various analyses. This multitude of options and flexibility, however, comes at the cost of many capabilities, features, and responses and the ensuing complexity in the resulting implementation. Therefore, to enhance confidence and enable the utilization of the LAMÉ library in application, this effort seeks to document and verify the various models in the LAMÉ library. Specifically, the broader strategy, organization, and interface of the library itself is first presented. The physical theory, numerical implementation, and user guide for a large set of models is then discussed. Importantly, a number of verification tests are performed with each model to not only have confidence in the model itself but also highlight some important response characteristics and features that may be of interest to end-users. Finally, in looking ahead to the future, approaches to add material models to this library and further expand the capabilities are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering (LAMÉ) 5.16

Accurate and efficient constitutive modeling remains a cornerstone issue for solid mechanics analysis. Over the years, the LAMÉ advanced material model library has grown to address this challenge by implementing models capable of describing material systems spanning soft polymers to stiff ceramics including both isotropic and anisotropic responses. Inelastic behaviors including (visco)plasticity, damage, and fracture have all incorporated for use in various analyses. This multitude of options and flexibility, however, comes at the cost of many capabilities, features, and responses and the ensuing complexity in the resulting implementation. Therefore, to enhance confidence and enable the utilization of the LAMÉ library in application, this effort seeks to document and verify the various models in the LAMÉ library. Specifically, the broader strategy, organization, and interface of the library itself is first presented. The physical theory, numerical implementation, and user guide for a large set of models is then discussed. Importantly, a number of verification tests are performed with each model to not only have confidence in the model itself but also highlight some important response characteristics and features that may be of interest to end-users. Finally, in looking ahead to the future, approaches to add material models to this library and further expand the capabilities are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design, Modeling, and Testing of a Novel Inductor for Electric Vehicles: Iron Nitride Soft Magnetic Composites

New technology for electric vehicles (EVs) must meet the requirements of higher energy usage, lower costs, and more sustainable source materials. One promising material for EV power system components is iron nitride (IN) soft magnetic composites (SMCs) because of their competitive magnetic properties and high abundance of the source materials. As part of an ongoing program at Sandia National Laboratories, this project focused on using computer modeling to optimize the prototyping process for an iron nitride SMC toroidal inductor to reach a target inductance of 600 μH. Four inductors with different combinations of wiring (26 AWG and 20 AWG) and vol% loading of iron nitride (65 vol% and 50 vol%) were fabricated at Cal Poly and characterized using an LCR meter. These inductors were also modeled using COMSOL Multiphysics™ with the Magnetic Fields module. The inductance data from the experiment and the model show that the 65 vol% IN prototypes and models agree with about 8% difference, while the 50 vol% IN samples show about a 9% difference between the prototype and the model. These results suggest that the model can predict inductance with both accuracy and precision with low confidence for the given sample size of four. An additional parameter of AC resistance is studied but the AC resistance results from the inductors and from the model generally do not agree closely, suggesting that the current model used in the project does not fully capture the mechanisms behind AC resistance of the inductor. With the focus of the project on inductance, the percent difference results of less than 9% across the four inductors that were tested increases confidence in the model’s predictive capabilities for inductance only. Using the inductance results from both the model and experiment, the final suggested inductor design is a 65 vol% core with 150 windings of 20 AWG wire that is 8 cm across and 1.5 cm tall to reach the inductance goal of 600 μH based on analysis using the optimized COMSOLTM model.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Non-nuclear Component Signatures for Warhead Dismantlement Confirmation

The verification of warhead dismantlement is expected to be an important component in future arms reduction treaties. Historic approaches developed with future arms control treaty verification in mind often involve intrusive measurements, process monitoring, and/or inspector presence to provide confidence that an authentic warhead has been dismantled. This work explores the possibility of reducing the negative impacts of these invasive approaches while also delivering a method that is more likely to provide non-sensitive data that can be shared with not only other nuclear weapons states but also non-nuclear weapons states partners. This work explores a novel approach for verifying dispositioned non-nuclear weapon components, providing confidence post-dismantlement that a treaty accountable item that was dismantled was in fact a treaty-relevant nuclear weapon system as declared. This method provides an alternative to intrusive inspection processes in nuclear weapons production environments, which would require significant changes to the host’s operational behaviors. It achieves this by identifying intrinsic neutron-induced signatures of non-nuclear components to determine their authenticity and estimate the duration they were exposed within a nuclear weapons system using technologies that are already in use for other national security applications. Intrinsic radiation effects studies are already a part of the stockpile aging and surveillance evaluations. However, none of these technologies and approaches have been previously considered for verification applications of non-nuclear component disposition. In this report, we introduce modeling studies that have been used to identify the most promising candidate parts and materials with signatures that are measurable and actionable. These models have been validated with laboratory measurements of signatures induced by the exposure of candidate materials to neutrons over a range of times. Predictive modeling then demonstrates the methodology for estimating exposure times and/or limits. Laboratory measurements of authentic non-nuclear parts from a dismantled warhead demonstrate the feasibility of employing these signature measurements. And finally, a concept of operations (CONOPS) for the potential use of this methodology is presented.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Low-Dimensional Manifold via Co-Kurtosis PCA in Combustion Modeling

For multi-scale multi-physics applications e.g., the turbulent combustion code Pele, robust and accurate dimensionality reduction is crucial to solving problems at exascale and beyond. A recently developed technique, Co-Kurtosis based Principal Component Analysis (CoK-PCA) which leverages principal vectors of co-kurtosis, is a promising alternative to traditional PCA for complex chemical systems. To improve the effectiveness of this approach, we employ Artificial Neural Networks for reconstructing thermo-chemical scalars, species production rates, and overall heat release rates corresponding to the full state space. Our focus is on bolstering confidence in this deep learning based non-linear reconstruction through Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA). UQ involves quantifying uncertainties in inputs and outputs, while SA identifies influential inputs. One of the noteworthy challenges is the computational expense inherent in both endeavors. To address this, we employ the Monte Carlo methods to effectively quantify and propagate uncertainties in our reduced spaces while managing computational demands. Our research carries profound implications not only for the realm of combustion modeling but also for a broader audience in UQ. By showcasing the reliability and robustness of CoK-PCA in dimensionality reduction and deep learning predictions, we empower researchers and decision-makers to navigate complex combustion systems with greater confidence.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗