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At least 487 records · Page 27

Intelligent Life-Extending Controls for Aircraft Engines

Aircraft engine controllers are designed and operated to provide desired performance and stability margins. The purpose of life-extending-control (LEC) is to study the relationship between control action and engine component life usage, and to design an intelligent control algorithm to provide proper trade-offs between performance and engine life usage. The benefit of this approach is that it is expected to maintain safety while minimizing the overall operating costs. With the advances of computer technology, engine operation models, and damage physics, it is necessary to reevaluate the control strategy fro overall operating cost consideration. This paper uses the thermo-mechanical fatigue (TMF) of a critical component to demonstrate how an intelligent engine control algorithm can drastically reduce the engine life usage with minimum sacrifice in performance. A Monte Carlo simulation is also performed to evaluate the likely engine damage accumulation under various operating conditions. The simulation results show that an optimized acceleration schedule can provide a significant life saving in selected engine components.

Guo, Ten-Huei↗

A novel measurement of marginal Alfvén eigenmode stability during high power auxiliary heating in JET

The interaction of Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs) and energetic particles is one of many important factors determining the success of future tokamaks. In JET, eight in-vessel antennas were installed to actively probe stable AEs with frequencies ranging 25–250 kHz and toroidal mode numbers |n| < 20. During the 2019–2020 deuterium campaign, almost 7500 resonances and their frequencies f 0 , net damping rates γ < 0, and toroidal mode numbers were measured in almost 800 plasma discharges. From a statistical analysis of this database, continuum and radiative damping are inferred to increase with edge safety factor, edge magnetic shear, and when including non-ideal effects. Both stable AE observations and their associated damping rates are found to decrease with |n|. Active antenna excitation is also found to be ineffective in H-mode as opposed to L-mode; this is likely due to the increased edge density gradient’s effect on accessibility and ELM-related noise’s impact on mode identification. A novel measurement is reported of a marginally stable, edge-localized ellipticity-induced AE probed by the antennas during high-power auxiliary heating (ion cyclotron resonance heating and neutral beam injection) up to 25 MW. NOVA-K kinetic-MHD simulations show good agreement with experimental measurements of f 0 , γ, and n, indicating the dominance of continuum and electron Landau damping in this case. Similar experimental and computational studies are planned for the recent hydrogen and ongoing tritium campaigns, in preparation for the upcoming DT campaign.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Simplified simulation models for control studies of turbojet engines

The essential dynamical characteristics of a simple single spool turbojet engine were determined through simulation of low order system models on an analog computer. An accurate model was studied and system complexity was reduced through various linearizations and approximations. A derivation of a seventh order simplified simulation model is presented with a derivation of an even simpler third order model, and simulation results from each. The control problem studied is one of getting from zero fuel flow equilibrium to a high thrust equilibrium while taking into account surge margin and turbine inlet temperature constraints.

Brennan, T. C.↗

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗

MS25: Materials Science-Focused Benchmark Data Set for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Here, we present MS25, a benchmark data set for evaluating machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) across diverse materials-relevant systems including MgO surfaces, liquid water, zeolites, a catalytic Pt surface reaction, high-entropy alloys (HEAs), and disordered Zr-oxides. Five MLIP architectures (MACE, NequIP, Allegro, MTP, and Torch-ANI) are trained and tested, focusing not only on traditional metrics (energies, forces, and stresses) but also explicitly validating derived physical observables such as lattice constants, volumes, and reaction barriers. We find that most models reach comparable accuracy on standard error metrics across the simple systems, although equivariant MLIPs offer 1.5–2× improvements over nonequivariant MLIPs in energy and force error for structurally complex or compositionally disordered environments such as HEAs and Zr–O systems. Our analysis highlights that low errors in energy and force predictions do not guarantee reliable observables, emphasizing the necessity of explicit validation. We demonstrate limitations in cross-framework transferability, as models trained on one zeolite framework (CHA) fail to reliably generalize to predictions of structurally distinct frameworks (e.g., MFI). Size-extensive tests show some dependence on system size for MgO, resulting from forced periodicity. The HEA and Zr–O data sets are identified as challenging tests for future benchmarks and MLIP model architecture developments as they show significant differentiation in error between MLIP architectures and are still relatively difficult at 1000 training images. Moving forward, we recommend that benchmarking efforts shift their focus from marginal accuracy improvements in energy and force errors toward identifying and understanding model failure modes, rigorously assessing transferability, and evaluating how their errors affect observable predictions. For researchers looking to choose an MLIP architecture, we suggest selecting equivariant MLIP architectures if the complexity of the system is a challenge. For simple materials problems, auxiliary features such as integration with molecular dynamics engines, trade-offs between computational data set generation cost vs MLIP inference speed, and framework integration may play a more important decision factor than small differences in error metrics that are unlikely to matter for production-level research.

chemical structure↗

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Based Response Surface Approach for FLEX and Accident Tolerant Fuels for Medium Break LOCA Spectrum

After the Fukushima Daiichi Accident, the safety features such as accident tolerant fuel (ATF) and diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) for existing nuclear fleets are being investigated by the US Department of Energy under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. This research is being conducted to quantify the risk-benefit of these safety features. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA)-based response-surface approach has been presented to quantify the FLEX and ATF benefits by estimating the risk associated with each option. ATFs with multilayered silicon carbide (SiC), iron-chromium-aluminum, and chromium-coated zirconium cladding were considered in this study. While these ATF candidates perform better than the current zirconium cladding (Zr), they may introduce additional failure modes in some operating conditions. The fuel failure analysis modules (FAMs) were developed to investigate ATF performance. The dynamic risk assessments were performed using RAVEN, a DPRA tool, coupled with RELAP5 and FAMs. A cumulative distribution function-based index provided a mean of comparing the benefits of safety enhancements. For medium break loss of coolant accidents, FLEX operational timing window for each fuel type was estimated. Among these ATF candidates, SiC-type ATF was the most beneficial candidate for an increased safety margin than Zr-based fuel and was found to complement FLEX strategies in terms of risk and coping time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

JPL Energy Consumption Program (ECP) documentation: A computer model simulating heating, cooling and energy loads in buildings

The engineering manual provides a complete companion documentation about the structure of the main program and subroutines, the preparation of input data, the interpretation of output results, access and use of the program, and the detailed description of all the analytic, logical expressions and flow charts used in computations and program structure. A numerical example is provided and solved completely to show the sequence of computations followed. The program is carefully structured to reduce both user's time and costs without sacrificing accuracy. The user would expect a cost of CPU time of approximately $5.00 per building zone excluding printing costs. The accuracy, on the other hand, measured by deviation of simulated consumption from watt-hour meter readings, was found by many simulation tests not to exceed + or - 10 percent margin.

Lansing, F. L.↗

Computational aspects of helicopter trim analysis and damping levels from Floquet theory

Helicopter trim settings of periodic initial state and control inputs are investigated for convergence of Newton iteration in computing the settings sequentially and in parallel. The trim analysis uses a shooting method and a weak version of two temporal finite element methods with displacement formulation and with mixed formulation of displacements and momenta. These three methods broadly represent two main approaches of trim analysis: adaptation of initial-value and finite element boundary-value codes to periodic boundary conditions, particularly for unstable and marginally stable systems. In each method, both the sequential and in-parallel schemes are used and the resulting nonlinear algebraic equations are solved by damped Newton iteration with an optimally selected damping parameter. The impact of damped Newton iteration, including earlier-observed divergence problems in trim analysis, is demonstrated by the maximum condition number of the Jacobian matrices of the iterative scheme and by virtual elimination of divergence. The advantages of the in-parallel scheme over the conventional sequential scheme are also demonstrated.

Gaonkar, Gopal H.↗

Helicopter trim analysis by shooting and finite element methods with optimally damped Newton iterations

Helicopter trim settings of periodic initial state and control inputs are investigated for convergence of Newton iteration in computing the settings sequentially and in parallel. The trim analysis uses a shooting method and a weak version of two temporal finite element methods with displacement formulation and with mixed formulation of displacements and momenta. These three methods broadly represent two main approaches of trim analysis: adaptation of initial-value and finite element boundary-value codes to periodic boundary conditions, particularly for unstable and marginally stable systems. In each method, both the sequential and in-parallel schemes are used, and the resulting nonlinear algebraic equations are solved by damped Newton iteration with an optimally selected damping parameter. The impact of damped Newton iteration, including earlier-observed divergence problems in trim analysis, is demonstrated by the maximum condition number of the Jacobian matrices of the iterative scheme and by virtual elimination of divergence. The advantages of the in-parallel scheme over the conventional sequential scheme are also demonstrated.

Achar, N. S.↗

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗

PRIMO - The P&A Project Optimizer

In support of the Methane Emissions Reduction Program (MERP) and under the National Methane Emissions Reduction Initiative (NEMRI), the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and NETL site support contractors are developing and releasing an open-source decision-support tool (“PRIMO”) to help organizations determine which marginal conventional wells (MCWs) or other low-producing wells make the best candidates for plugging utilizing MERP funds, while also optimizing subsequent plugging and abandonment (P&A) campaigns for both program impact and efficiency. The framework—which is fully customizable—provides three main capabilities: 1. Ranking candidate wells (based on user preferences) 2. Identifying high-impact, high-efficiency P&A project candidates (with transparently computed scores for relevant metrics) 3. Comparing competing P&A projects quantitatively (through transparently computed project impact and efficiency scores) As such, PRIMO is a versatile, fully customizable tool that is meant to support organizations in making data-based, transparent, and defensible well selection and P&A project design decisions. For questions, comments or feedback, please contact primo@netl.doe.gov.

MERP↗

Potential bill impacts of dynamic electricity pricing on California utility customers

The rapid growth of renewable generation is creating challenges for the California grid in the form of the “duck curve,” with increasingly steep ramping required for conventional generation resources in the morning and evening, and growing curtailment of solar resources in midday periods. Time-varying electricity tariffs have received considerable attention as a tool to address these challenges, with a renewed recent focus on the potential for dynamic tariffs that vary to reflect conditions on the grid in near-real time. Consideration of dynamic tariffs may raise concerns about the financial impact on utility customers, especially for those who have limited flexibility to modify their electricity consumption in response. Specific areas of concern include electricity bills, bill volatility, and equity implications related to cost shifting among customer groups. In this paper we leverage smart meter data for more than 400,000 California utility customers, spanning residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers, to assess potential customer bill impacts arising from a multi-component dynamic tariff . Specifically, we compute impacts on customer bills and bill volatility under the assumption of fully inelastic demand, i.e., where customers do not change their consumption patterns in response to the tariff. We also assess various approaches designing subscription load shapes that customers can pre-purchase as a hedge that may provide a measure of protection against large negative impacts, while still incentivizing the modification of loads on the margin. We compare and contrast the relative impacts on different customer classes and discuss benefits and pitfalls of different dynamic tariff structures and subscription load shapes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Model-based Cross-correlation Search for Gravitational Waves from the Low-mass X-Ray Binary Scorpius X-1 in LIGO O3 Data

We present the results of a model-based search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass X-ray binary Scorpius X-1 using LIGO detector data from the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. This is a semicoherent search that uses details of the signal model to coherently combine data separated by less than a specified coherence time, which can be adjusted to balance sensitivity with computing cost. The search covered a range of gravitational-wave frequencies from 25 to 1600 Hz, as well as ranges in orbital speed, frequency, and phase determined from observational constraints. No significant detection candidates were found, and upper limits were set as a function of frequency. The most stringent limits, between 100 and 200 Hz, correspond to an amplitude h $_{0}$ of about 10$^{−25}$ when marginalized isotropically over the unknown inclination angle of the neutron star’s rotation axis, or less than 4 × 10$^{−26}$ assuming the optimal orientation. The sensitivity of this search is now probing amplitudes predicted by models of torque balance equilibrium. For the usual conservative model assuming accretion at the surface of the neutron star, our isotropically marginalized upper limits are close to the predicted amplitude from about 70 to 100 Hz; the limits assuming that the neutron star spin is aligned with the most likely orbital angular momentum are below the conservative torque balance predictions from 40 to 200 Hz. Assuming a broader range of accretion models, our direct limits on gravitational-wave amplitude delve into the relevant parameter space over a wide range of frequencies, to 500 Hz or more.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO 2 , temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonlinear structure formation in flat cosmological models

This paper describes the formation of nonlinear structure in flat (zero curvature) Friedmann cosmological models. We consider models with two components: the usual nonrelativistic component that evolves under gravity and eventually forms the large-scale structure of the universe, and a uniform dark matter component that does not clump under gravity, and whose energy density varies with the scale factor a(t) like a(t)(sup -n), where n is a free parameter. Each model is characterized by two parameters: the exponent n and the present density parameter Omega(sub 0) of the nonrelativistic component. The linear perturbation equations are derived and solved for these models, for the three different cases n = 3, n is greater than 3, and n is less than 3. The case n = 3 is relevant to model with massive neutrinos. The presence of the uniform component strongly reduces the growth of the perturbation compared with the Einstein-de Sitter model. We show that the Meszaros effect (suppression of growth at high redshift) holds not only for n = 4, radiation-dominated models, but for all models with n is greater than 3. This essentially rules out any such model. For the case n is less than 3, we numerically integrate the perturbation equations from the big bang to the present, for 620 different models with various values of Omega(sub 0) and n. Using these solutions, we show that the function f(Omega(sub 0), n) = (a/delta(sub +))d(delta)(sub +)/da, which enters in the relationship between the present density contrast delta(sub 0) and peculiar velocity field u(sub 0) is essentially independent of n. We derive approximate solutions for the second-order perturbation equations. These second-order solutions are tested against the exact solutions and the Zel'dovich approximation for spherically symmetric perturbations in the marginally nonlinear regime (the absolute value of delta is less than or approximately 1). The second-order and Zel'dovich solutions have comparable accuracy, significantly higher than the accuracy of the linear solutions. We then investigate the dependence of the delta(sub 0) - u(sub 0) relationship upon the value of n in the nonlinear regime using the second-order solutions for marginally nonlinear, general perturbations, and the exact solutions for strongly nonlinear, spherically symmetric perturbations. In both cases, we find that the delta(sub 0) - u(sub 0) relationship remains independent of n. We speculate that this result extends to strongly nonlinear, general perturbations as well. This eliminates any hope to determine the presence of the uniform component or the value of n using dynamical methods. Finally, we compute the nonlinear evolution of the skewness of the distribution of values of delta, assuming Gaussian initial conditions. We find that the skewness is not only independent of n, but also of Omega(sub 0). Thus the skewness cannot be used to discriminate among various models with Gaussian initial conditions. However, it can be used for testing the Gaussianity of the initial conditions themselves. We conclude that the uniform component leaves no observable signature in the present large-scale structure of the universe. To determine its presence and nature, we must investigate the relationship between the past and present universe, using redshift-dependent tests.

Martel, Hugo↗

Simulating Effects of High Angle of Attack on Turbofan Engine Performance

A method of investigating the effects of high angle of attack (AOA) flight on turbofan engine performance is presented. The methodology involves combining a suite of diverse simulation tools. Three-dimensional, steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software is used to model the change in performance of a commercial aircraft-type inlet and fan geometry due to various levels of AOA. Parallel compressor theory is then applied to assimilate the CFD data with a zero-dimensional, nonlinear, dynamic turbofan engine model. The combined model shows that high AOA operation degrades fan performance and, thus, negatively impacts compressor stability margins and engine thrust. In addition, the engine response to high AOA conditions is shown to be highly dependent upon the type of control system employed.

Liu, Yuan↗

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

James A Franke↗

Computational Modeling of Water Infiltration From Ditches Into Roadway Embankments

Ditches are built along roadways to convey the stormwater runoff. They collect the runoff from the pavement and adjacent drainage areas. Water can move freely in a ditch away from the road surface, thus making it safer for the vehicular traffic. South Carolina DOT expressed interest in studying infiltration of water from ditches into roadway embankments. As part of the current design criteria, it is recommended that the road subgrades be 1.0 foot above the design event water surface elevation in the ditch. The distance between the water surface and bottom of the subbase is referred to as “freeboard”. The purpose of this requirement is to lower the risk of pavement damage by moving the flow away from the pavement, containing the captured flow, and conveying flow received from adjacent properties to outfalls. With changes in roadway design standards, larger shoulders and flatter cross-slopes have moved ditches further away from the pavement and the subbase. These changes could allow for a lower freeboard standard without reducing safety margins due to the increased lateral distance from the subbase to the ditch. The objective of this study is to evaluate whether the current SCDOT criterion requiring the roadway subgrade to be 1 ft above the design-event ditch water surface can be relaxed under selected geometric and soil conditions, particularly where larger shoulder widths and flatter side slopes increase horizontal separation between ditch water and pavement structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗