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NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty of Observation Impact Estimation in an Adjoint Model Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoint models are often used to estimate the impact of different observations on short-term forecast skill. A common difficulty with the evaluation of short term forecast quality is the choice of verification fields. The use of self-analysis fields for verification is typical but incestuous, and introduces uncertainty due to biases and errors in the analysis field. In this study, an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is used to explore the uncertainty in adjoint model estimations of observation impact. The availability of the true state for verification in the OSSE framework in the form of the Nature Run allows calculation of the observation impact without the uncertainties present in self-analysis verification. These impact estimates are compared to estimates calculated using self-analysis verification. The Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) forecast model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is used with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) OSSE capability. The adjoint model includes moist processes, with total wet energy selected as the norm for evaluation of observation impacts. The results show that there are measurable but small discrepancies in the adjoint model estimation of observation impact. In general, observations of temperature and winds tend to have overestimated impacts with self-analysis verification, while observations of humidity and moisture-affected observations tend to have underestimated impacts. The small magnitude of the differences in impact estimates supports the robustness of the adjoint method of estimating observation impacts.

N C Prive↗

DOE OSTI2022

A mortar thermomechanical contact computational framework for nuclear fuel performance simulation

Nuclear fuel performance simulations involve the modeling of complex physical phenomena, ranging from fission gas release to fuel swelling and other temperature-induced effects. For light-water reactors (LWRs), swelling of the fuel and the pressure it imposes on the clad when they come into contact causes permanent clad deformation. Accurately characterizing the fuel-cladding interaction, which involves multiple physics, is essential to accurately simulate the fuel/cladding system. Thermomechanical modeling of this problem using a variationally consistent enforcement (e.g., a mortar approach) has been shown to improve the quality of results and facilitate convergence. Here, we present a general multiphysics computational framework for solving nuclear fuel problems using a mortar approach in BISON, a nuclear fuel performance code. In this study analyses show that using the mortar approach, which enables variationally consistent constraint enforcement, improves the quality of results as compared to the more commonly used node-on-face enforcement for representative LWR nuclear fuel simulations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Computational Analyses of Pressurization in Cryogenic Tanks

A comprehensive numerical framework utilizing multi-element unstructured CFD and rigorous real fluid property routines has been developed to carry out analyses of propellant tank and delivery systems at NASA SSC. Traditionally CFD modeling of pressurization and mixing in cryogenic tanks has been difficult primarily because the fluids in the tank co-exist in different sub-critical and supercritical states with largely varying properties that have to be accurately accounted for in order to predict the correct mixing and phase change between the ullage and the propellant. For example, during tank pressurization under some circumstances, rapid mixing of relatively warm pressurant gas with cryogenic propellant can lead to rapid densification of the gas and loss of pressure in the tank. This phenomenon can cause serious problems during testing because of the resulting decrease in propellant flow rate. With proper physical models implemented, CFD can model the coupling between the propellant and pressurant including heat transfer and phase change effects and accurately capture the complex physics in the evolving flowfields. This holds the promise of allowing the specification of operational conditions and procedures that could minimize the undesirable mixing and heat transfer inherent in propellant tank operation. In our modeling framework, we incorporated two different approaches to real fluids modeling: (a) the first approach is based on the HBMS model developed by Hirschfelder, Beuler, McGee and Sutton and (b) the second approach is based on a cubic equation of state developed by Soave, Redlich and Kwong (SRK). Both approaches cover fluid properties and property variation spanning sub-critical gas and liquid states as well as the supercritical states. Both models were rigorously tested and properties for common fluids such as oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen etc were compared against NIST data in both the sub-critical as well as supercritical regimes.

Ahuja, Vineet↗

NASA NTRS2013

Shape and Stress Sensing of Multilayered Composite and Sandwich Structures Using an Inverse Finite Element Method

The marked increase in the use of composite and sandwich material systems in aerospace, civil, and marine structures leads to the need for integrated Structural Health Management systems. A key capability to enable such systems is the real-time reconstruction of structural deformations, stresses, and failure criteria that are inferred from in-situ, discrete-location strain measurements. This technology is commonly referred to as shape- and stress-sensing. Presented herein is a computationally efficient shape- and stress-sensing methodology that is ideally suited for applications to laminated composite and sandwich structures. The new approach employs the inverse Finite Element Method (iFEM) as a general framework and the Refined Zigzag Theory (RZT) as the underlying plate theory. A three-node inverse plate finite element is formulated. The element formulation enables robust and efficient modeling of plate structures instrumented with strain sensors that have arbitrary positions. The methodology leads to a set of linear algebraic equations that are solved efficiently for the unknown nodal displacements. These displacements are then used at the finite element level to compute full-field strains, stresses, and failure criteria that are in turn used to assess structural integrity. Numerical results for multilayered, highly heterogeneous laminates demonstrate the unique capability of this new formulation for shape- and stress-sensing.

Cerracchio, Priscilla↗

NASA NTRS2026

Hybrid Modeling Study on Grain Evolution in the Metal Welding Process and Its Potential Lunar Application

Metal is most commonly used structural material in a wide range of spacecraft, and welding is the principal method for joining metal components into functional systems. However, conducting welding experiments under extreme environments—such as microgravity or vacuum conditions in space—is prohibitively expensive and experimentally challenging. To overcome these limitations, multi-physics computational welding models provide a cost-effective and versatile alternative. In this work, the authors have developed a coupled thermal (fluid) microstructure simulation framework to model metal welding under varying gravity conditions. The framework integrates a mixed-mode heat transfer formulation (conduction, convection, and radiation) with molten pool fluid dynamics, enabling accurate prediction of temperature fields and weld-pool geometry. A grain growth model is further incorporated to capture the spatial and temporal evolution of microstructure, including grain size distribution and morphological transitions during solidification. This approach provides detailed insight into molten pool evolution and grain-level microstructure development throughout the welding process. By explicitly parameterizing environmental conditions, the model supports extrapolation to off-Earth manufacturing scenarios such as welding on the lunar surface. Tantalum—chosen in this study due to its high melting point, oxidation resistance, and mechanical stability at elevated temperatures—serves as the material system for model demonstration. Beyond Tantalum, the integrated multi-physics framework offers broad applicability for predictive welding simulations of various structural and refractory metals or alloys used in extreme terrestrial or extraterrestrial environments.

kinetic Monte Carlo (SPPARKS)↗

DOE OSTI2022

GriddingMachine, a database and software for Earth system modeling at global and regional scales

Land and Earth system modeling is moving towards more explicit biophysical representations, requiring increasing variety of datasets for initialization and benchmarking. However, researchers often have difficulties in identifying and integrating non-standardized datasets from various sources. We aim towards a standardized database and one-stop distribution method of global datasets. Here, we present the GriddingMachine as (1) a database of global-scale datasets commonly used to parameterize or benchmark the models, from plant traits to vegetation indices and geophysical information and (2) a cross-platform open source software to download and request a subset of datasets with only a few lines of code. The GriddingMachine datasets can be accessed either manually through traditional HTTP, or automatically using modern programming languages including Julia, Matlab, Octave, Python, and R. The GriddingMachine collections can be used for any land and Earth modeling framework and ecological research at the regional and global scales, and the number of datasets will continue to grow to meet the increasing needs of research communities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

EUROPA2: Plan Database Services for Planning and Scheduling Applications

NASA missions require solving a wide variety of planning and scheduling problems with temporal constraints; simple resources such as robotic arms, communications antennae and cameras; complex replenishable resources such as memory, power and fuel; and complex constraints on geometry, heat and lighting angles. Planners and schedulers that solve these problems are used in ground tools as well as onboard systems. The diversity of planning problems and applications of planners and schedulers precludes a one-size fits all solution. However, many of the underlying technologies are common across planning domains and applications. We describe CAPR, a formalism for planning that is general enough to cover a wide variety of planning and scheduling domains of interest to NASA. We then describe EUROPA(sub 2), a software framework implementing CAPR. EUROPA(sub 2) provides efficient, customizable Plan Database Services that enable the integration of CAPR into a wide variety of applications. We describe the design of EUROPA(sub 2) from the perspective of both modeling, customization and application integration to different classes of NASA missions.

Bedrax-Weiss, Tania↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probing for Artifacts: Detecting Imagenet Model Evasions

While deep learning models have made incredible progress across a variety of machine learning tasks, they remain vulnerable to adversarial examples crafted to fool otherwise trustworthy models. In this work we approach this problem through the lens of a detection framework. We propose a classification network that uses the hidden layer activations of a trained model as inputs to detect adversarial artifacts in an input. We train this classification network simultaneously against multiple adversarial algorithms to create a more robust detector and show higher detection rates than several alternatives. The novelty of our approach is in the scale and scope of probing Imagenet models for adversarial artifacts. In addition, we propose an improvement to feature squeezing, another common adversarial example detection method.

Rounds, Jeremiah↗

DOE OSTI2023

Risk Analysis of Various Design Architectures for High Safety-significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems of Nuclear Power Plants during Accident Scenarios

This report documents the plus-up activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the high safety-significant safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing advanced risk-informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions and diversity and redundancy applications, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of HSSSR DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the LWRS-developed framework instructs nuclear vendors and utilities on how to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). Adding diversity within system or components is the main means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases plant complexity and errors and may not address all sources of systematic failures. How to optimize the diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the framework provides: ? An integrated best-estimate, risk-informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, accurately, and efficiently in plan modernization progress, such as software CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs ? A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to efficiently predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems ? Technical bases and risk-informed insights to assist U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry to address and fulfill the risk-informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs ? An integrated risk-informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The plus-up research and development efforts of this project in FY 2022 are focused on methodology improvement of software CCF modeling and estimation, prevention analysis, importance analysis and risk analysis of various design architectures of HSSSR DI&C systems. This work greatly enhances the capability of the LWRS-developed framework for the risk assessment and design optimization of safety-critical DI&C systems. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the LWRS-developed framework, not for the evaluation of relevant systems. Results are obtained based on very limited design information and testing data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An attention-based neural ordinary differential equation framework for modeling inelastic processes

To preserve strictly conservative behavior as well as model the variety of dissipative behavior displayed by solid materials, we propose a significant enhancement to the internal state variable-neural ordinary differential equation (ISV-NODE) framework. In this data-driven, physics-constrained modeling framework internal states are inferred rather than prescribed. The ISV-NODE consists of: (a) a stress model dependent on observable deformation and inferred internal state, and (b) a model of the evolution of the internal states. The enhancements to ISV-NODE proposed in this work are multifold: (a) a partially input convex neural network stress potential provides polyconvexity in terms of observed strain while leaving the inferred state unconstrained, and (b) an internal state flow model uses common latent features to inform novel attention-based gating and drives the flow of internal state only in dissipative regimes. We demonstrated that this architecture can accurately model dissipative and conservative behavior across an isotropic, isothermal elastic-viscoelastic-elastoplastic spectrum with three exemplars, while maintaining fundamental principles by design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advancing Solar Innovation for Low and Moderate-Income Households (Final Technical Report)

The overarching goal of this project was to deepen the understanding of the social and economic aspects of solar adoption, with a specific eye towards any pathways or barriers that could be identified that directly impact low and moderate-income households. Specific objectives included (1) identifying and assessing significant non-economic barriers that complicate the ability of LMI households to adopt and benefit from solar, even under scenarios with low economic barriers; (2) assessing the differential ability of groups to benefit from solar adoption based on their ability to invest in different solar innovations; (3) explaining why some LMI communities nonetheless experience significantly higher rates of solar adoption and benefit than others; (4) developing a methodological model for generating data addressing key issues to the project; and (5) designing and developing an interactive web portal that aggregates existing datasets, provides researchers trend analysis capabilities, standardizes project protocols for other states and communities; provides the opportunities for researchers using the same protocol in other communities to upload their results; and engages with the general public by providing them the ability to upload their own perspectives and stories of solar technology adoption. Through a common framework for conducting semi-structured field interviews. In partnership with cooperative extension services, in conjunction with survey research and the aggregation of existing solar adoption datasets, this study has identified that currently ,there is a strong values alignment and knowledge access challenge that continues to affect solar adoption. Participants in this study – many of whom are either low or moderate-income and/or live in underserved rural communities do not believe solar is an option where they live or believe solar is appropriate for their lifestyle. This perception challenge is further exacerbated by the absolute dearth of adopters in most communities and a total lack of local marketing for solar energy. What marketing that does exist is geared towards audiences other than those in the participant's community, reinforcing a perception that 22% of survey respondents (n = 1,551) have: that solar energy is not meant for them and their community. Overcoming these serious human challenges pertaining to knowledge and marketing are critical to reducing the customer acquisition costs incurred amongst LMI communities and especially those in rural America where the opportunities solar provides to increase local energy resilience, security, all while engaging in personal stewardship of the planet could align with local values. Community-Based Social Marketing, built in partnership with community leaders and geared towards meeting local visions of ideal life, is a near term opportunity to bridge the gap between local priorities and national market and policy imperatives for solar while moving towards the administration's goals for renewable energy as part of a just and equitable decarbonization program. The tools and methods developed for this study can serve as a template for identifying other specific local challenges for solar adoption in other state, and provide the opportunity for a common data framework for understanding system-wide trends and barriers to achieving uptake of residential solar in communities that may, ultimately, benefit the most from the technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Communication on the Flight Deck

The importance of good verbal communication by airplane crews is discussed. The common understanding of what it takes to fly a plane serves the communication and coordination. It is shown that accidents and incidents often are a result of failure to communicate. People's conceptions of what they are doing effect performance of a task and communication about performance of that task. It is known that if what they are doing is complex, they must find a simple framework to represent it to avoid being overwhelmed by complexity. A model that reduces the complexity of flying a jet to a representation composed of a few relatively independent dimensions which capture the major features of this task was developed. The model allows assessment of what crew members know, to look at actual performance, and to develop training recommendations.

Siesfeld, A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Improving Fidelity of Launch Vehicle Liftoff Acoustic Simulations

Launch vehicles experience high acoustic loads during ignition and liftoff affected by the interaction of rocket plume generated acoustic waves with launch pad structures. Application of highly parallelized Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis tools optimized for application on the NAS computer systems such as the Loci/CHEM program now enable simulation of time-accurate, turbulent, multi-species plume formation and interaction with launch pad geometry and capture the generation of acoustic noise at the source regions in the plume shear layers and impingement regions. These CFD solvers are robust in capturing the acoustic fluctuations, but they are too dissipative to accurately resolve the propagation of the acoustic waves throughout the launch environment domain along the vehicle. A hybrid Computational Fluid Dynamics and Computational Aero-Acoustics (CFD/CAA) modeling framework has been developed to improve such liftoff acoustic environment predictions. The framework combines the existing highly-scalable NASA production CFD code, Loci/CHEM, with a high-order accurate discontinuous Galerkin (DG) solver, Loci/THRUST, developed in the same computational framework. Loci/THRUST employs a low dissipation, high-order, unstructured DG method to accurately propagate acoustic waves away from the source regions across large distances. The DG solver is currently capable of solving up to 4th order solutions for non-linear, conservative acoustic field propagation. Higher order boundary conditions are implemented to accurately model the reflection and refraction of acoustic waves on launch pad components. The DG solver accepts generalized unstructured meshes, enabling efficient application of common mesh generation tools for CHEM and THRUST simulations. The DG solution is coupled with the CFD solution at interface boundaries placed near the CFD acoustic source regions. Both simulations are executed simultaneously with coordinated boundary condition data exchange.

Liever, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2023

A deep learning model for automatic analysis of cavities in irradiated materials

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is a commonly used technique in materials science for defect investigation. Quantitative analysis of defects is important for understanding the properties of a material, but manual analysis of TEM micrographs can be time-consuming and prone to error, especially when the defects have irregular shapes rather than spherical shapes. Many existing methods or deep learning models do not handle a wide range of sizes for the same object type within a single image. In this work, we present a framework that enables users to train an instance segmentation model called Mask R- CNN on any microstructure dataset, perform multi-detection on the same image at different scales, and obtain properties (e.g., size, area) of the objects based on the desired shape (e.g., circle, ellipse, rectangle). Additionally, we have developed a parallel detection module that uses multiple GPUs to increase the efficiency of the object detection process. We demonstrate the capabilities of our framework using a set of TEM images of cavities with different shapes, size distributions, and background contrasts. Finally, we show that the performance of our model in terms of density, size, and swelling of the cavities is comparable to the human average and that our model achieves the highest recall value compared to existing methods due to the use of image multi-rescaling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Fragility of Bedform‐Induced Hyporheic Zones: Exploring Impacts of Dynamic Groundwater Table Fluctuations

Abstract Hyporheic zones are commonly regarded as resilient and enduring interfaces between groundwater and surface water in river corridors. In particular, bedform‐induced advective pumping hyporheic exchange (bedform‐induced exchange) is often perceived as a relatively persistent mechanism in natural river systems driving water, solutes, and energy exchanges between the channel and its surrounding streambed sediments. Numerous studies have been based on this presumption. To evaluate the persistence of hyporheic zones under varying hydrologic conditions, we use a multi‐physics framework to model advective pumping bedform‐induced hyporheic exchange in response to a series of seasonal‐ and event‐scale groundwater table fluctuation scenarios, which lead to episodic river‐aquifer disconnections and reconnections. Our results suggest that hyporheic exchange is not as ubiquitous as generally assumed. Instead, the bedform‐induced hyporheic exchange is restricted to a narrow range of conditions characterized by minor river‐groundwater head differences, is intermittent, and can be easily obliterated by minor losing groundwater conditions. These findings shed light on the fragility of bedform‐induced hyporheic exchange and have important implications for biogeochemical transformations along river corridors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Versatile stochastic model for predictive KMC simulation of fcc metal nanostructure evolution with realistic kinetics

Stochastic lattice-gas models provide the natural framework for analysis of the surface diffusion-mediated evolution of crystalline metal nanostructures on the appropriate time scale (often 10 1 –10 4 s) and length scale. Model behavior can be precisely assessed by kinetic Monte Carlo simulation, typically incorporating a rejection-free algorithm to efficiently handle the broad range of Arrhenius rates for hopping of surface atoms. The model should realistically prescribe these rates, or the associated barriers, for a diversity of local surface environments. However, commonly used generic choices for barriers fail, even qualitatively, to simultaneously describe diffusion for different low-index facets, for terrace vs step edge diffusion, etc. We introduce an alternative Unconventional Interaction–Conventional Interaction formalism to prescribe these barriers, which, even with few parameters, can realistically capture most aspects of behavior. Here, the model is illustrated for single-component fcc metal systems, mainly for the case of Ag. It is quite versatile and can be applied to describe both the post-deposition evolution of 2D nanostructures in homoepitaxial thin films (e.g., reshaping and coalescence of 2D islands) and the post-synthesis evolution of 3D nanocrystals (e.g., reshaping of nanocrystals synthesized with various faceted non-equilibrium shapes back to 3D equilibrium Wulff shapes).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Retrieval Augmented Generation for Robust Cyber Defense

In cybersecurity, the ability to efficiently analyze and respond to vulnerabilities, weaknesses, attack patterns, and threat tactics is critical for effective defense strategies. With the increasing complexity and volume of cybersecurity data, traditional methods of querying and retrieving information are often inadequate. To address this challenge, we implemented Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems—CyRAG and GraphCyRAG—that integrate large language models (LLMs) with both structured data from relational databases and knowledge graphs such as Neo4j. CyRAG is designed to handle structured data, focusing on CVE (Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures) and CWE (Common Weakness Enumeration) entities to generate accurate and context-rich responses. In contrast, GraphCyRAG leverages Neo4j knowledge graphs to retrieve interconnected information from CVE, CWE, CAPEC (Common Attack Pattern Enumeration and Classification), and ATT&CK (Adversarial Tactics, Techniques, and Common Knowledge) datasets. By utilizing Neo4j’s graph-based framework, GraphCyRAG enables deeper traversal of relationships between vulnerabilities and attack patterns, providing cybersecurity analysts with more comprehensive insights into potential attack vectors and mitigation strategies. Our preliminary results demonstrate that integrating knowledge graphs with RAG significantly enhances both the accuracy and depth of threat analysis, allowing for the retrieval of dynamic, real-time data and the generation of contextually aware responses. This approach helps analysts uncover hidden relationships between cyber entities, predict exploit paths, and prioritize mitigation efforts effectively. The integration of RAG with cybersecurity knowledge graphs represents a significant advancement in cybersecurity threat intelligence, enabling more informed decision-making and stronger defense strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Method for Validating Causal Diagrams of Human Health Risk in Space Flight

The complexity of cause-and-effect relationships between spaceflight hazards and resulting health conditions clouds understanding of the totality of human system risk in space. In response, NASA has introduced Directed Acyclic Graphs (causal diagrams) into the human systems risk management process. These diagrams allow for a common understanding of the mechanisms that lead from unique hazards of spaceflight to the health outcomes important to agencies and astronauts. However, the paucity of available biomedical data from spaceflight creates a need for methods of validating causal models that can accommodate data from spaceflight model analogs. Here we outline one approach utilizing open-access rodent bone datasets from the Ames Life Sciences Data Archive. The properties of directed acyclic graphs themselves can provide an epistemological and statistical framework for validation of a priori causal representations of human system risk in space flight. The assumed causal connections on the graph creates sets of logical implications: variables that – if the causal diagram is correct – should be correlated, as well as sets that should be conditionally independent. By testing these implied correlations and conditional independencies both statistically and heuristically, we can provide evidence for or against specific causal pathways on the causal diagram. In addition to validation of expert-generated causal diagrams, machine learning techniques can learn the most likely structure of a causal diagram from a given dataset. Comparison with and reconciliation between machine-learned causal diagrams and expert-generated diagrams is another technique for challenging assumptions and improving our understanding of causal mechanisms. Accurately representing complex causation is essential to systemic understanding of human health risks in space travel. Having a robust system of validating causal diagrams helps us arrive at more accurate representations of causal systems. This process will be integral to developing the countermeasures necessary for extended exploration of the moon and Mars.

Robert Reynolds↗