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NASA NTRS1992

Martian volatiles determined using the Mars observer gamma ray spectrometer

The relative abundances of H2O and CO2 and their latitude, longitude, and depth profiles on Mars sensitively reflect, as well as help control, past and present Martian climate patterns. Seasonal variations of their distributions at high latitudes also reflect and help control global weather patterns and erosion through surface weathering. A combined analysis of gamma ray line and neutron flux maps constructed from data measured using the Mars Observer Gamma Ray Spectrometer (MOGRS) should allow a determination of seasonal changes in both the horizontal and vertical structure of CO2 ice that covers the north polar cap during winter and the south polar cap throughout the year and both the horizontal and vertical structure of residual H2O ice within the top meter of the surface that was predicted from Viking observations to exist primarily at high latitudes. Particularly important in this regard will be maps of thermal and epithermal neutron fluxes measured using the MOGRS anticoincidence shield, the intensity of the hydrogen, neutron capture gamma ray line at 2.223 MeV, the intensity of a capture gamma ray line as 1.725 MeV from iron, and the intensity of an inelastic scatter gamma ray line as 1.779 MeV from silicon.

Feldman, W. C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Interpretation of Lidar and Satellite Data Sets Using a Global Photochemical Model

A primary goal of the NASA Tropospheric Chemistry Program (TCP) is to "contribute substantially to scientific understanding of human impacts on the global troposphere". In order to analyze global or regional trends and factors of the troposphere chemistry, for example, its oxidation capacity or composition, a continuous global/regional data coverage as well as model simulations are needed. The Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE), a major component of the TCP, provides data vital to these questions via aircraft measurement of key trace chemical species in various remote regions of the world. Another component in NASA's effort are satellite projects for exploration of tropospheric chemistry and dynamics. A unique data product is the Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TOR) utilizing global tropospheric ozone data. Another key research tool are simulation studies of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics for the theoretical understanding of the atmosphere, the extrapolation of observed trends, and for sensitivity studies assessing a changing anthropogenic impact to air chemistry and climate. In the context with model simulations, field data derived from satellites or (airborne) field missions are needed for two purposes: 1. To initialize and validate model simulations, and 2., to interpret field data by comparison to model simulation results in order to analyze global or regional trends and deviations from standard tropospheric chemistry and transport conditions as defined by the simulations. Currently, there is neither a sufficient global data coverage available nor are existing well established global circulation models. The NASA LARC CTM model is currently not yet in a state to accomplish a sufficient tropospheric chemistry simulation, so that the current research under this cooperative agreement focuses on utilizing field data products for direct interpretation. They will be also available for model testing and a later interpretation with a finally utilized model.

Zenker, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2002

Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

Rind, David↗

NASA NTRS2003

SPARC-IGAC Symposium on Climate-Chemistry Interactions. Climate Feedback by Water Vapor in the Tropical Upper Troposphere

The strong greenhouse forcing by atmospheric water vapor is expected to play an important role in shaping the direction of any future changes in climate. We present calculations that provide a new perspective on the sensitivity of upper tropospheric water vapor to changes in surface temperature. Equilibrium states of our atmospheric model show unambiguously that as the surface warms, changes in the vertical distribution and temperature of detraining air parcels from tropical convection lead to higher water vapor mixing ratios in the upper troposphere. However, the increase in mixing ratio is not as large as the increase in saturation mixing ratio due to warmer environmental temperatures, so that the relative humidity decreases. Our analysis suggests that models that maintain a fixed relative humidity are likely overestimating the magnitude of the water vapor feedback.

Dessler, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

In-situ Microwave Brightness Temperature Variability from Ground-based Radiometer Measurements at Dome C in Antarctica Induced by Wind-formed Features

Space-borne microwave radiometers are among the most useful tools to study snow and to collect information on the Antarctic climate. They have several advantages over other remote sensing techniques: high sensitivity to snow properties of interest (temperature, grain size, density), subdaily coverage in the polar regions, and their observations are independent of cloud conditions and solar illumination. Thus, microwave radiometers are widely used to retrieve information over snow-covered regions. For the Antarctic Plateau, many studies presenting retrieval algorithms or numerical simulations have assumed, explicitly or not, that the subpixel-scale heterogeneity is negligible and that the retrieved properties were representative of whole pixels. In this presentation, we investigate the spatial variations of brightness temperature over arange of a few kilometers in the Dome C area (Antarctic Plateau).

Antarctica↗

NASA NTRS2003

Status of Middle Atmosphere-Climate Models: Results SPARC-GRIPS

The middle atmosphere is an important component of the climate system, primarily because of the radiative forcing of ozone. Middle atmospheric ozone can change, over long times, because of changes in the abundance of anthropogenic pollutants which catalytically destroy it, and because of the temperature sensitivity of kinetic reaction rates. There is thus a complex interaction between ozone, involving chemical and climatic mechanisms. One question of interest is how ozone will change over the next decades , as the "greenhouse-gas cooling" of the middle atmosphere increases but the concentrations of chlorine species decreases (because of policy changes). concerns the climate biases in current middle atmosphere-climate models, especially their ability to simulate the correct seasonal cycle at high latitudes, and the existence of temperature biases in the global mean. A major obstacle when addressing this question This paper will present a summary of recent results from the "GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC" (GRIPS) initiative. A set of middle atmosphere-climate models has been compared, identifying common biases. Mechanisms for these biases are being studied in some detail, including off-line assessments of the radiation transfer codes and coordinated studies of the impacts of gravity wave drag due to sub-grid-scale processes. ensemble of models will be presented, along with numerical experiments undertaken with one or more models, designed to investigate the mechanisms at work in the atmosphere. The discussion will focus on dynamical and radiative mechanisms in the current climate, but implications for coupled ozone chemistry and the future climate will be assessed.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2009

Cloud Imagers Offer New Details on Earth's Health

A stunning red sunset or purple sunrise is an aesthetic treat with a scientific explanation: The colors are a direct result of the absorption or reflectance of solar radiation by atmospheric aerosols, minute particles (either solid or liquid) in the Earth s atmosphere that occur both naturally and because of human activity. At the beginning or end of the day, the Sun s rays travel farther through the atmosphere to reach an observer s eyes and more green and yellow light is scattered, making the Sun appear red. Sunset and sunrise are especially colorful when the concentration of atmospheric particles is high. This ability of aerosols to absorb and reflect sunlight is not just pretty; it also determines the amount of radiation and heat that reaches the Earth s surface, and can profoundly affect climate. In the atmosphere, aerosols are also important as nuclei for the condensation of water droplets and ice crystals. Clouds with fewer aerosols cannot form as many water droplets (called cloud particles), and consequently, do not scatter light well. In this case, more sunlight reaches the Earth s surface. When aerosol levels in clouds are high, however, more nucleation points can form small liquid water droplets. These smaller cloud particles can reflect up to 90 percent of visible radiation to space, keeping the heat from ever reaching Earth s surface. The tendency for these particles to absorb or reflect the Sun s energy - called extinction by astronomers - depends on a number of factors, including chemical composition and the humidity and temperature in the surrounding air; because cloud particles are so small, they are affected quickly by minute changes in the atmosphere. Because of this sensitivity, atmospheric scientists study cloud particles to anticipate patterns and shifts in climate. Until recently, NASA s study of atmospheric aerosols and cloud particles has been focused primarily on satellite images, which, while granting large-scale atmospheric analysis, limited scientists ability to acquire detailed information about individual particles. Now, experiments with specialized equipment can be flown on standard jets, making it possible for researchers to monitor and more accurately anticipate changes in Earth s atmosphere and weather patterns.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2011

Preliminary Error Budget for the Reflected Solar Instrument for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) plans to observe climate change trends over decadal time scales to determine the accuracy of climate projections. The project relies on spaceborne earth observations of SI-traceable variables sensitive to key decadal change parameters. The mission includes a reflected solar instrument retrieving at-sensor reflectance over the 320 to 2300 nm spectral range with 500-m spatial resolution and 100-km swath. Reflectance is obtained from the ratio of measurements of the earth s surface to those while viewing the sun relying on a calibration approach that retrieves reflectance with uncertainties less than 0.3%. The calibration is predicated on heritage hardware, reduction of sensor complexity, adherence to detector-based calibration standards, and an ability to simulate in the laboratory on-orbit sources in both size and brightness to provide the basis of a transfer to orbit of the laboratory calibration including a link to absolute solar irradiance measurements. The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission addresses the need to observe high-accuracy, long-term climate change trends and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those in the IPCC Report. A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO Project will implement a spaceborne earth observation mission designed to provide rigorous SI traceable observations (i.e., radiance, reflectance, and refractivity) that are sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables, including: 1) Surface temperature and atmospheric temperature profile 2) Atmospheric water vapor profile 3) Far infrared water vapor greenhouse 4) Aerosol properties and anthropogenic aerosol direct radiative forcing 5) Total and spectral solar irradiance 6) Broadband reflected and emitted radiative fluxes 7) Cloud properties 8) Surface albedo There are two methods the CLARREO mission will rely on to achieve these critical decadal change benchmarks: direct and reference inter-calibration. A quantitative analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods has led to the recommended CLARREO mission approach. The project consists of two satellites launched into 90-degree, precessing orbits separated by 90 degrees. The instrument suite receiver on each spacecraft includes one emitted infrared spectrometer, two reflected solar spectrometers: dividing the spectrum from ultraviolet through near infrared, and one global navigation receiver for radio occultation. The measurements will be acquired for a period of three years minimum, with a five-year lifetime goal, enabling follow-on missions to extend the climate record over the decades needed to understand climate change. The current work concentrates on the reflected solar instrument giving an overview of its design and calibration approach. The calibration description includes the approach to achieving an SI-traceable system on orbit. The calibration overview is followed by a preliminary error budget based on techniques currently in place at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Thome, Kurtis↗

NASA NTRS2004

Polar Processes in a 50-year Simulation of Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport

The unique chemical, dynamical, and microphysical processes that occur in the winter polar lower stratosphere are expected to interact strongly with changing climate and trace gas abundances. Significant changes in ozone have been observed and prediction of future ozone and climate interactions depends on modeling these processes successfully. We have conducted an off-line model simulation of the stratosphere for trace gas conditions representative of 1975-2025 using meteorology from the NASA finite-volume general circulation model. The objective of this simulation is to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone and chemical change to varying meteorology and trace gas inputs. This presentation will examine the dependence of ozone and related processes in polar regions on the climatological and trace gas changes in the model. The model past performance is base-lined against available observations, and a future ozone recovery scenario is forecast. Overall the model ozone simulation is quite realistic, but initial analysis of the detailed evolution of some observable processes suggests systematic shortcomings in our description of the polar chemical rates and/or mechanisms. Model sensitivities, strengths, and weaknesses will be discussed with implications for uncertainty and confidence in coupled climate chemistry predictions.

Kawa, S.R.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Numerical experiments in climate stability.

Two semiempirical climate models are formulated as time-dependent problems in order to study the stability of their asymptotic steady state equilibrium solutions to perturbations in internal (in this case, initial) conditions. For fixed external conditions the time-dependent versions of these models exhibit fully transitive behavior to positive perturbations in initial conditions, slight intransivity to negative perturbations up to -18 K, and an ice-covered earth regime is obtained for extremely large negative perturbations in initial temperatures (below -18 K). The parametrization found to be most critical in these models is the albedo-temperature coupling, especially in tropical regions. The temperature albedo parametrization from an intransitive climate model used in a time-dependent form of one of the preceding models is found to be highly sensitive to negative perturbations in both internal and external conditions. Numerical experimentation with these semiempirical models shows the important role of the tropics in maintaining the equilibrium climate and suggests that the radiation balance in equatorial latitudes might have a controlling influence on the equatorward extent of the polar ice cap.

Schneider, S. H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Description and Validation of a Computationally-Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) Module for 3D Model Applications

We present the Efficient CH4-CO-OH Module (ECCOH) that allows for the simulation of the methane, carbon monoxide and hydroxyl radical (CH4-CO-OH cycle, within a chemistry climate model, carbon cycle model, or earth system model. The computational efficiency of the module allows many multi-decadal, sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH cycle, which primarily determines the global tropospheric oxidizing capacity. This capability is important for capturing the nonlinear feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system and understanding the perturbations to relatively long-lived methane and the concomitant impacts on climate. We implemented the ECCOH module into the NASA GEOS-5 Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (AGCM), performed multiple sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH system over two decades, and evaluated the model output with surface and satellite datasets of methane and CO. The favorable comparison of output from the ECCOH module (as configured in the GEOS-5 AGCM) with observations demonstrates the fidelity of the module for use in scientific research.

Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRS2020

Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks in the NASA GISS ModelE2.1

We present results from the NASA GISS ModelE2.1‐G‐CC Earth System Model with coupled climate‐carbon cycle simulations that were submitted to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle MIP (C4MIP). Atmospheric CO2 concentration and carbon budgets for the land and ocean in the historical simulations were generally consistent with observations. Low simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations during 1850‐1950 were due to excess uptake from prescribed land cover change, which erroneously replaced arid shrublands with higher biomass crops, and assumed high 2004 LAI values in vegetated lands throughout the historical simulation. At the end of the historical period, slightly higher simulated CO2 than observed resulted from the land being an insufficient net carbon sink, despite the net effect of CO2 fertilization and warming‐induced increases to leaf photosynthetic capacity. The global ocean carbon uptake agreed well with the observations with the largest discrepancies in the low latitudes. Future climate projection at 2091‐2100 agreed with CMIP5 models in the northward shift, of temperate deciduous forest climate and expansion across Eurasia along 60 °N latitude, and dramatic regional biome shifts from drying and warming in continental Europe. Carbon feedback parameters were largely similar to the CMIP5 model ensemble. For our model, the variation of land feedback parameters within the uncertainty arises from the fertilization feedback being less sensitive due to lack of increased vegetation growth, and the comparably more negative ocean carbon‐climate feedback is due to the large slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Carbon cycle↗

NASA NTRS2022

Winter Severity Affects Occupancy of Spring- and Summer-Breeding Anurans Across the Eastern United States

Climate change is an increasingly important driver of biodiversity loss. The ectothermic nature of amphibians may make them particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, adding to declines from other threats. While active season environmental conditions can influence growth and survival, effects of variation in winter conditions on population dynamics are less well-studied. Given that extreme winter temperatures can influence amphibian survival and fitness, we expected that increased winter severity—as measured by variability in winter temperatures and snow cover—would be associated with decreased occupancy, and that populations that experience more severe winters would have the largest sensitivities and show the greatest declines.

climate↗

NASA NTRS2013

Projected Climate Impacts to South African Maize and Wheat Production in 2055: A Comparison of Empirical and Mechanistic Modeling Approaches

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EMMM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EMMM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

DSSAT↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Description and Validation of a Computationally-Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOHv1.01) Chemistry Module for 3D Model Applications

We present the Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) chemistry module that allows for the simulation of the methane, carbon monoxide, and hydroxyl radical (CH4-CO- OH) system, within a chemistry climate model, carbon cycle model, or Earth system model. The computational efficiency of the module allows many multi-decadal sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH system, which primarily determines the global atmospheric oxidizing capacity. This capability is important for capturing the nonlinear feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system and understanding the perturbations to methane, CO, and OH, and the concomitant impacts on climate. We implemented the ECCOH chemistry module in the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM), performed multiple sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH system over 2 decades, and evaluated the model output with surface and satellite data sets of methane and CO. The favorable comparison of output from the ECCOH chemistry module (as configured in the GEOS- 5 AGCM) with observations demonstrates the fidelity of the module for use in scientific research.

carbon cycle model↗

NASA NTRS1989

Soil moisture and the persistence of North American drought

Numerical sensitivity experiments on the effects of soil moisture on North American summertime climate are performed using a 12-layer global atmospheric general circulation model. Consideration is given to the hypothesis that reduced soil moisture may induce and amplify warm, dry summers of midlatitude continental interiors. The simulations resemble the conditions of the summer of 1988, including an extensive drought over much of North America. It is found that a reduction in soil moisture leads to an increase in surface temperature, lower surface pressure, increased ridging aloft, and a northward shift of the jet stream. It is shown that low-level moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico is important in the maintenance of persistent soil moisture deficits.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The significance of cloud-radiative forcing to the general circulation on climate time scales - A satellite interpretation

This paper focuses on the role of cloud- and surface-atmosphere forcing on the net radiation balance and their potential impact on the general circulation at climate time scales. The globally averaged cloud-forcing estimates and cloud sensitivity values taken from various recent studies are summarized. It is shown that the net radiative heating over the tropics is principally due to high clouds, while the net cooling in mid- and high latitudes is dominated by low and middle clouds.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗

NASA NTRS1990

Modeling of interactions between biosphere and atmosphere on the global scale

Simulations of weather and climate with general circulation models show that the circulation and rainfall are sensitive to the transfers of radiation, sensible heat, water vapor, and momentum across the atmosphere land surface interface. Because, in nature, these transfers depend in large measure on the morphological and physiological characteristics of the surface vegetation, an interactive biosphere is needed for GCM's. The simple model of the biosphere (SiB) that the authors have constructed is based on the recognized difference between ground cover vegetation (grasses and other herbaceous plants) and canopy vegetation (trees and shrubs), where the latter act like elevated blocks of porous material which efficiently extract momentum from the air that flows through them; by a large number of multiple reflections enhance the absorption of the incident solar radiation; when the canopy is wet, act like well ventilated psychrometers which extract sensible heat from the air and produce a negative Bowen ratio; and, in all of these ways, behave differently from ground cover vegetation. The complete set of governing equations of SiB, whereby the various allowable combinations of trees, ground covers, and bare ground, in interaction with the atmosphere, determine all of the vegetation dependent transfers at the land surface, have been presented and described.

Baer, Ferdinand↗