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At least 487 records · Page 27

Comparison of dynamic height variations in the tropical Atlantic during 1987-1989 as viewed in sections hydrography and Geosat altimetry

During the 1980s the Soviet Union conducted a series of 25 hydrographic cruises in the tropical Atlantic under the Sections (acronym for Energetically Active Zones of the Ocean and Climate Variability) program. As one of its objectives, Sections has produced the most extensive hydrographic data set ever collected in the tropical Atlantic. Here we examine dynamic topography from seven cruises during the years 1987 through 1989 and compare them to corresponding maps of sea level from the Geosat satellite mission. The two independent estimates of sea level variation are well correlated, with the sea level fields explaining approximately half of the variance of dynamic height fields. There is a seasonal variation to the agreement, so that the correlation increases somewhat in summer and fall, as the variability of the height field increases. Wavenumber spectra of both dynamic height and sea level are quite red for wavelengths greater than 400-600 km. Smaller wavelengths cannot be resolved by the hydrographic sampling program. A comparison of the dynamic height and sea level spectra indicates that sea level has somewhat less variability than dynamic height at all wavenumbers.

Carton, James A.↗

Global-Scale Comparison of Passive (SMOS) and Active (ASCAT) Satellite Based Microwave Soil Moisture Retrievals with Soil Moisture Simulations (MERRA-Land)

Global surface soil moisture (SSM) datasets are being produced based on active and passive microwave satellite observations and simulations from land surface models (LSM). This study investigates the consistency of two global satellite-based SSM datasets based on microwave remote sensing observations from the passive Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS;SMOSL3 version 2.5) and the active Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT; version TUWien- WARP 5.5) with respect to LSM SSM from the MERRA-Land data product. The relationship between the global-scale SSM products was studied during the 2010-2012 period using (1) a time series statistics (considering both original SSM data and anomalies), (2) a space-time analysis using Hovmoller diagrams, and (3) a triple collocation error model. The SMOSL3 and ASCAT retrievals are consistent with the temporal dynamics of modeled SSM (correlation R (is) greater than 0.70 for original SSM) in the transition zones between wet and dry climates, including the Sahel, the Indian subcontinent, the Great Plains of North America, eastern Australia, and southeastern Brazil. Over relatively dense vegetation covers, a better consistency with MERRA-Land was obtained with ASCAT than with SMOSL3. However, it was found that ASCAT retrievals exhibit negative correlation versus MERRA-Land in some arid regions (e.g., the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula). In terms of anomalies, SMOSL3 better captures the short term SSM variability of the reference dataset (MERRA-Land) than ASCAT over regions with limited radio frequency interference (RFI) effects (e.g., North America, South America, and Australia). The seasonal and latitudinal variations of SSM are relatively similar for the three products, although the MERRALand SSM values are generally higher and their seasonal amplitude is much lower than for SMOSL3 and ASCAT. Both SMOSL3 and ASCAT have relatively comparable triple collocation errors with similar spatial error patterns: (i) lowest errors in arid regions (e.g., Sahara and Arabian Peninsula), due to the very low natural variability of soil moisture in these areas, and Central America, and (ii) highest errors over most of the vegetated regions (e.g., northern Australia, India, central Asia, and South America). However, the ASCAT SSM product is prone to larger random errors in some regions (e.g., north-western Africa, Iran, and southern South Africa). Vegetation density was found to be a key factor to interpret the consistency with MERRA-Land between the two remotely sensed products (SMOSL3 and ASCAT) which provides complementary information on SSM. This study shows that both SMOS and ASCAT have thus a potential for data fusion into long-term data records.

ASCAT↗

Global Assessment of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product Using Assimilation Diagnostics

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with approx. 2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of approx. 0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under approx. 3 K), the soil moisture increments (under approx. 0.01 cu m/cu m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under approx. 1 K). Typical instantaneous values are approx. 6 K for O-F residuals, approx. 0.01 (approx. 0.003) cu m/cu m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and approx. 0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.

Reichle, Rolf↗

Using Data Assimilation Diagnostics to Assess the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with approx.2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of approx. 0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under approx. 3 K), the soil moisture increments (under approx. 0.01 cu m/cu m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under approx. 1 K). Typical instantaneous values are approx. 6 K for O-F residuals, approx. 0.01 (approx. 0.003) cu m/cu m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and approx. 0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.

SMAP↗

Stratospheric Temperatures and Water Loss From Moist Greenhouse Atmospheres of Earth-Like Planets

A radiative-convective climate model is used to calculate stratospheric temperatures and water vapor concentrations for ozone-free atmospheres warmer than that of modern Earth. Cold, dry stratospheres are predicted at low surface temperatures, in agreement with recent 3D calculations. However, at surface temperatures above 350 K, the stratosphere warms and water vapor becomes a major upper atmospheric constituent, allowing water to be lost by photodissociation and hydrogen escape. Hence, a moist greenhouse explanation for loss of water from Venus, or some exoplanet receiving a comparable amount of stellar radiation, remains a viable hypothesis. Temperatures in the upper parts of such atmospheres are well below those estimated for a gray atmosphere, and this factor should be taken into account when performing inverse climate calculations to determine habitable zone boundaries using 1D models.

Astrobiology↗

Climate-driven deoxygenation elevates fishing vulnerability for the ocean's widest ranging shark

Climate-driven expansions of ocean hypoxic zones are predicted to concentrate pelagic fish in oxygenated surface layers, but how expanding hypoxia and fisheries will interact to affect threatened pelagic sharks remains unknown. Here, analysis of satellite-tracked blue sharks and environmental modelling in the eastern tropical Atlantic oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) shows shark maximum dive depths decreased due to combined effects of decreasing dissolved oxygen (DO) at depth, high sea surface temperatures, and increased surface-layer net primary production. Multiple factors associated with climate-driven deoxygenation contributed to blue shark vertical habitat compression, potentially increasing their vulnerability to surface fisheries. Greater intensity of longline fishing effort occurred above the OMZ compared to adjacent waters. Higher shark catches were associated with strong DO gradients, suggesting potential aggregation along suitable DO gradients contributed to habitat compression and higher fishing-induced mortality. Fisheries controls to counteract deoxygenation effects on shark catches will be needed as oceans continue warming.

Vedor, Marisa↗

Impact of ITCZ width on global climate: ITCZ-MIP

Abstract. The width of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affects tropical rainfall, Earth's albedo, large-scale circulation, and climate sensitivity. To better understand the ITCZ width and its effects on global climate, we present a protocol to force changes in ITCZ width in climate models. Starting from an aquaplanet configuration with a slab ocean, adding surface heat fluxes in the deep tropics forces the ITCZ to narrow, and subtracting them causes it to widen. The protocol successfully generates changes in ITCZ width in all four climate models used in this study. ITCZ width in each model responds linearly to forcing magnitude and sign. Comparing across the four climate models, a response to varying ITCZ width that is remarkably consistent among models is the ITCZ strength, which is greater the narrower the ITCZ. On the other hand, the effect of varying ITCZ width on climate sensitivity is divergent among our four models, varying even in sign. Results from this pilot study highlight the connections between surface fluxes, ITCZ width, and the wider climate. A comprehensive model intercomparison project (MIP) has the potential to advance understanding of both the physical processes shaping ITCZ width and its influence on remote atmospheric circulations and global climate.

Geology↗

Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model

Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO2, under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures (Ts); snowball (Ts ≤ 235 K), waterbelt (235 K ≤ Ts ≤ 250 K), temperate (275 K ≤ Ts ≤ 315 K), and moist greenhouse (Ts ≥ 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having Ts ∼ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ∼1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO2, habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ∼2.2, ∼2.4, and ∼4.7 Gyr around F-, G-, and K-dwarf stars respectively, due to main sequence brightening.

Eric T Wolf↗

Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model

Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO2, under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures (T(sub s)); snowball (T(sub s) ≼ 235 K), waterbelt (235 K ≼ T(sub s) ≼ 250 K), temperate (275 K ≼ T(sub s) ≼ 315 K), and moist greenhouse (T(sub s) ≽ 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having T(sub s) ∼ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ∼1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO2, habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ∼2.2, ∼2.4, and ∼4.7 Gyr around F-, G-, and K-dwarf stars respectively, due to main sequence brightening.

Astrobiology↗

Climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

Predicted growth in world population will put unparalleled stress on the need for sustainable energy and global food production, as well as increase the likelihood of future pandemics. In this work, we identify high-resolution environmental zones in the context of a changing climate and predict longitudinal processes relevant to these challenges. We do this using exhaustive vector comparison methods that measure the climatic similarity between all locations on earth at high geospatial resolution relative to global-scale analyses. The results are captured as networks, in which edges between geolocations are defined if their historical climate similarities exceed a threshold. We apply Markov clustering and our novel Correlation of Correlations method to the resulting climatic networks, which provides unprecedented agglomerative and longitudinal views of climatic relationships across the globe. The methods performed here resulted in the fastest (9.37x10 18 operations/sec) and one of the largest (168.7x10 21 operations) scientific computations ever performed, with more than 100 quadrillion edges considered for a single climatic network. Our climatic analysis reveals areas of the world experiencing rapid environmental changes, which can have important implications for global carbon fluxes and zoonotic spillover events. Correlation and network analyses of this kind are widely applicable across computational and predictive biology domains, including systems biology, ecology, carbon cycles, biogeochemistry, and zoonosis research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of the Large Seasonal Cycle of Upwelling Zone Sea Surface Temperatures on the Atmosphere

Abstract The amplitude of the annual cycle of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the tropics is the largest in the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Upwelling activity in these regions is maximum during late boreal summer and autumn, resulting in cool SSTs, and minimum in spring, leading to warm SSTs. The fundamental question of how this large seasonal cycle affects the atmosphere has received relatively little scientific attention. In this study, we use perturbed-SST experiments in an atmosphere model to identify the effects of the seasonal cycle of upwelling zone SSTs on the atmospheric state. Although annual-mean upwelling zone SSTs are cool, preventing their convective coupling with the free troposphere for much of the year, their boreal spring warmth can activate precipitating convection. We find that in this season, upwelling zone SSTs affect the atmosphere by 1) altering the intensity and position of the local intertropical convergence zone and 2) inducing a thermally forced Matsuno–Gill response, altering subtropical winds. On the seasonal time scale, the Atlantic upwelling zone is more effective than the Pacific in inducing this response. We also find that, consistent with prior work, the Pacific upwelling zone excites extratropical modes of internal atmospheric variability. Upwelling zone SSTs have remained poorly simulated through generations of climate models; our experiments allow us to diagnose the atmospheric biases that arise in response to upwelling zone SST biases. Our experiments show that upwelling zone SST biases are most impactful in boreal spring, particularly over the Atlantic.

Ramesh, Nandini↗

Characterization of Root Zone Soil Moisture and Herpetofaunal Biodiversity in the Southern Great Plains

(1) Goal: The scientific objective to the proposed research is to develop a proto-type downscaled (<1 km) version of the root-zone soil moisture product called SoilMERGE or SMERGE. This objective is linked as root zone soil moisture is a critical climate variable that has a more direct influence on plant growth than precipitation. Therefore, the developed downscaled version of SMERGE can be used as input into biodiversity informatic techniques (i.e., maximum entropy modeling) Development of downscaled SMERGE will be facilitated by Department of Energy (DOE) resources specifically data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility and modeling platforms such as the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Temperature, Humidity and Rainfall on Influenza Transmission in Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama

Worldwide, seasonal influenza causes about 500,000 deaths and 5 million severe illnesses per year. The environmental drivers of influenza transmission are poorly understood especially in the tropics. We aimed to identify meteorological factors for influenza transmission in tropical Central America. We gathered laboratory-confirmed influenza case-counts by week from Guatemala City, San Salvador Department (El Salvador) and Panama Province from 2006 to 2010. The average total cases per year were: 390 (Guatemala), 99 (San Salvador) and 129 (Panama). Meteorological factors including daily air temperature, rainfall, relative and absolute humidity (RH, AH) were obtained from ground stations, NASA satellites and land models. For these factors, we computed weekly averages and their deviation from the 5-yr means. We assessed the relationship between the number of influenza case-counts and the meteorological factors, including effects lagged by 1 to 4 weeks, using Poisson regression for each site. Our results showed influenza in San Salvador would increase by 1 case within a week of every 1 day with RH>75% (Relative Risk (RR)= 1.32, p=.001) and every 1C increase in minimum temperature (RR=1.29, p=.007) but it would decrease by 1 case for every 1mm-above mean weekly rainfall (RR=0.93,p<.001) (model pseudo-R2=0.55). Within 2 weeks, influenza in Panama was increased by 1 case for every 1% increase in RH (RR=1.04, p=.003), and it was increased by 2 cases for every 1C increase of minimum temperature (RR=2.01, p<.001) (model pseudo-R2=0.4). Influenza counts in Guatemala had 1 case increase for every 1C increase in minimum temperature in the previous week (RR=1.21, p<.001), and for every 1mm/day-above normal increase of rainfall rate (RR=1.03, p=.03) (model pseudo-R2=0.54). Our findings that cases increase with temperature and humidity differ from some temperate-zone studies. But they indicate that climate parameters such as humidity and temperature could be predictive of influenza activity and should be incorporated into country-specific influenza transmission models

Soebiyanto, Radina P.↗

FluidCam 1 & 2 - UAV-based Fluid Lensing Instruments for High-Resolution 3D Subaqueous Imaging and Automated Remote Biosphere Assessment of Reef Ecosystems

We present NASA ESTO FluidCam 1 & 2, Visible and NIR Fluid-Lensing-enabled imaging payloads for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Developed as part of a focused 2014 earth science technology grant, FluidCam 1&2 are Fluid-Lensing-based computational optical imagers designed for automated 3D mapping and remote sensing of underwater coastal targets from airborne platforms. Fluid Lensing has been used to map underwater reefs in 3D in American Samoa and Hamelin Pool, Australia from UAV platforms at sub-cm scale, which has proven a valuable tool in modern marine research for marine biosphere assessment and conservation. We share FluidCam 1&2 instrument validation and testing results as well as preliminary processed data from field campaigns. Petabyte-scale aerial survey efforts using Fluid Lensing to image at-risk reefs demonstrate broad applicability to large-scale automated species identification, morphology studies and reef ecosystem characterization for shallow marine environments and terrestrial biospheres, of crucial importance to improving bathymetry data for physical oceanographic models and understanding climate change’s impact on coastal zones, global oxygen production, carbon sequestration.

Chirayath, Ved↗

Sensitivity of Maize Yield in Smallholder Systems to Climate Scenarios in Semi-Arid Regions of West Africa: Accounting for Variability in Farm Management Practices

Climate change is estimated to exacerbate existing challenges faced by smallholder farmers in Sub-Sahara Africa. However, limited studies quantify the extent of variation in climate change impact under these systems at the local scale. The Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT) was used to quantify variation in climate change impacts on maize yield under current agricultural practices in semi-arid regions of Senegal (Nioro du Rip) and Ghana (Navrongo and Tamale). Multi-benchmark climate models (Mid-Century, 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and multiple soil and management information from agronomic surveys were used as input for DSSAT. The average impact of climate scenarios on grain yield among farms ranged between −9% and −39% across sites. Substantial variation in climate response exists across farms in the same farming zone with relative standard deviations from 8% to 117% at Nioro du Rip, 13% to 64% in Navrongo and 9% to 37% in Tamale across climate models. Variations in fertilizer application, planting dates and soil types explained the variation in the impact among farms. This study provides insight into the complexities of the impact of climate scenarios on maize yield and the need for better representation of heterogeneous farming systems for optimized outcomes in adaptation and resilience planning in smallholder systems.

Freduah, Bright S.↗

Sea Ice, Climate and Fram Strait

When sea ice is formed the albedo of the ocean surface increases from its open water value of about 0.1 to a value as high as 0.8. This albedo change effects the radiation balance and thus has the potential to alter climate. Sea ice also partially seals off the ocean from the atmosphere, reducing the exchange of gases such as carbon dioxide. This is another possible mechanism by which climate might be affected. The Marginal Ice Zone Experiment (MIZEX 83 to 84) is an international, multidisciplinary study of processes controlling the edge of the ice pack in that area including the interactions between sea, air and ice.

Hunkins, K.↗

Enhanced Habitability on High Obliquity Bodies near the Outer Edge of the Habitable Zone of Sun-Like Stars

High obliquity planets represent potentially extreme limits of terrestrial climate, as they exhibit large seasonality, a reversed annual-mean pole-to-equator gradient of stellar heating, and novel cryospheres. A suite of 3D global climate model simulations is performed for low and high obliquity planets with various stellar fluxes, CO2 concentrations, and initial conditions to explore the propensity for high obliquity climates to undergo global glaciation. We also simulate planets with thick CO2 or H2 atmospheres, such as those expected to develop near or beyond the outer edge of the habitable zone. We show that high obliquity planets are hotter than their low obliquity counterparts due to ice-albedo feedbacks for cold climates, and water vapor in warm climates. We suggest that the water vapor greenhouse trapping is greater on high obliquity bodies for a given global-mean temperature due to the different dynamical regimes that occur between the two states. While equatorial ice belts are stable at high obliquity in some climate regimes, it is substantially harder to achieve global glaciation than for a low obliquity planet. Temperate polar conditions can be present at high obliquity at forcings for which low obliquity planets would be in a hard snowball state. Furthermore, open ocean can persist even in the winter hemisphere and when global-mean temperatures are well below freezing. However, the influence of obliquity diminishes for dense atmospheres, in agreement with calculations from 1D energy balance models.

Planet and satellite atmospheres↗

Deep in the Sierra Nevada critical zone: saprock represents a large terrestrial organic carbon stock

Large uncertainty remains in the spatial distribution of deep soil organic carbon (OC) storage and how climate controls belowground OC. This research aims to quantify OC stocks, characterize soil OC age and chemical composition, and evaluate climatic impacts on OC storage from the soil surface through the deep critical zone to bedrock. These objectives were carried out at four sites along a bio-climosequence in the Sierra Nevada, California. On average, 74% of OC was stored below the A horizon, and up to 30% of OC was stored in saprock (friable weakly weathered bedrock). Radiocarbon, spectroscopic, and isotopic analyses revealed the coexistence of very old organic matter (OM) (mean radiocarbon age = 20 300 years) with relatively recent OM (mean radiocarbon age = 4800 years) and highly decomposed organic compounds with relatively less decomposed material in deep soil and saprock. This co-mingling of OM suggests OC is prone to both active cycling and long-term protection from degradation. In addition to having direct effects on OC cycling, climate indirectly controls deep OC storage through its impact on the degree of regolith weathering (e.g. thickening). Although deep OC concentrations are low relative to soil, thick saprock represents a large, previously unrealized OC pool.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗