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DOE OSTI2024

Thermal Analysis and Simulations of the Abort Kicker Magnets Systems for the Electron-Ion Collider

The Abort Kicker Magnets system used in the current Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) to steer the circulating beam into the dump will be subjected to higher heat loads in the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). After analyzing the existing abort kicker magnets and running thermal simulations in ANSYS it was concluded that they may not be suitable for use as-is in the future EIC due to heat and impedance concerns in the magnets. Possible solutions include adding a round titanium-coated ceramic beam tube to help solve the heat and impedance concerns, but this will reduce the limiting aperture of the kicker magnet. Another possible solution to meet all the performance requirements for EIC would be to add titanium-coated ceramic plates with water-cooling and tapered transitions that significantly improve the impedance and lower the heat in the magnets with less reduction to the aperture.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI, Part 19

The topics include: 1) The abundances of Iron-60 in Pyroxene Chondrules from Unequilibrated Ordinary Chondrites; 2) LL-Ordinary Chondrite Impact on the Moon: Results from the 3.9 Ga Impact Melt at the Landing Site of Appolo 17; 3) Evaluation of Chemical Methods for Projectile Identification in Terrestrial and Lunar Impactites; 4) Impact Cratering Experiments in Microgravity Environment; 5) New Achondrites with High-Calcium Pyroxene and Its implication for Igneous Differentiation of Asteroids; 6) Climate History of the Polar Regions of Mars Deduced form Geologic Mapping Results; 7) The crater Production Function for Mars: A-2 Cumulative Power-Law Slope for Pristine Craters Greater than 5 km in Diameter Based on Crater Distribution for Northern Plains Materials; 8) High Resolution Al-26 Chronology: Resolved Time Interval Between Rim and Interior of a Highly Fractionated Compact Type a CAI from Efremovka; 9) Assessing Aqueous Alteration on Mars Using Global Distributions of K and Th; 10) FeNi Metal Grains in LaPaz Mare Basalt Meteorites and Appolo 12 Basalts; 11) Unique Properties of Lunar Soil for In Situ Resource Utilization on the Moon; 12) U-Pb Systematics of Phosphates in Nakhlites; 13) Measurements of Sound Speed in Granular Materials Simulated Regolith; 14) The Effects of Oxygen, Sulphur and Silicon on the Dihedral Angles Between Fe-rich Liquid Metal and Olivine, Ringwoodite and Silicate Perovskite: Implications for Planetary Core Formation; 15) Seismic Shaking Removal of Craters 0.2-0.5 km in Diameter on Asteroid 433 Eros; 16) Focused Ion Beam Microscoopy of ALH84001 Carbonate Disks; 17) Simulating Micro-Gravity in the Laboratory; 18) Mars Atmospheric Sample Return Instrument Development; 19) Combined Remote LIBS and Raman Spectroscopy Measurements; 20) Unusual Radar Backscatter Properties Along the Northern Rim of Imbrium Basin; 21) The Mars Express/NASAS Project at JPL; 22) The Geology of the Viking 2 Lander Site Revisited; 23) An Impact Genesis for Loki Patera? 24) Mars Polar Cap Edges Tracked over 3 Full Mars Years; 25) Elemental Abundance in Presolar SiC: Comparing Grains Separated by Acid Residue and Gently Separation Procedures; 26) First Results from the Descent Imager/Spectral Radiometer (DISR) Experiment on the Huygens Entry Probe of Titan; 27) Minor Element Behavior of Pallasite Olivine: Understanding Pallasite Thermal History and Chronology; 28) Canonical Anorthite in a Grosnaja Forsterite-bearing CAI; 29) Experimental Evidence for Condensation of 'Astrophysical' Carbonate; 30) Distribution and Classification of Multiple Coronae on Venus; 31) Recognition of Rayed Craters on Mars in THEMIS Thermal Infrared Imagery: Implications for Martian Meteorite Source Regions; 32) Geochemical Modeling of Evaporites on Mars: Insight from Meridiani Planum; 33) Hadean Crustal Processes Revealed from Oxygen Isotopes and U-Th-Pb Depth Profiling of Pre-4.0 Ga Detrital Zircons from Western Australia; 34) On Modeling the Seepage of Water into the Martian Subsurface; 35) Martial Gullies and Groundwater: A Series of Unfortunate Exceptions; 36) Olivine and Carbonate Globules in ALH84001: A Terrestrial Analog, and Implications for Water on Mars; 37) A Reevaluation of Mass Movements Within the Valles Marineris Region of Mars Using MOLA and MOC Data; 38) Evidence of Hydrated 109P/Swift-Tuttle Meteoroids from Meteor Spectroscopy; 39) Cr-54 Anomalies in the Solar System: Their Extent and Origin; 40) Reevaluation of the Mn-53-Cr-53 Systematic in the Basaltic Achondrites; 41) Effective Liquid Metal-Silicate Mixing Upon Shock by Power-Law Droplet Size Scaling in Richtmyer-Meshkov Like Perturbations; 42) Post-Impact Deformation of Impact Craters: Towards a Better Understanding Through the Study of Mjolnir Crater; 43) Cutting Silica Aerogel for Particle Extraction; 44) Liquid Hydrocarbons on Titan's Surface? How Cassini ISS Observations Fit into the Story (So Far); and 45) Mesoscale Simulations of Polar Circulations: Late Spring to Late Summe

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2003

Environmental Consequences of an Emerging Biosphere

It seems feasible to detect biological signatures ("biosignatures") in other planetary systems using the tools of astronomy. There are at least two types of biosignatures; spectral and/or polarization features created by biological products, and electromagnetic signals created by technology. The latter example of a biosignature requires SETI-like searches. This presentation addresses only spectral signatures of biological products and properties of habitable planets. Spectral biosignatures are indeed promising targets for near-term exploration. They can arise from organic constituents (e.g., vegetation) and/or inorganic products (e.g., atmospheric O2). Features originating from a planet's surface are likely to be localized in specific regions, whereas gaseous biosignatures can become globally distributed by atmospheric circulation. Biosignatures should be most abundant within environments that are, or once were, habitable. We currently believe that habitable environments necessarily provide Liquid water and biochemically useful energy. However, we do not yet fully comprehend the diversity of features that might arise within these environments that are non-biological in origin, yet mimic biosignatures. For example, atmospheres reflect the events leading to their origins as well as a host of ongoing planetary processes that might include biological activity. We are persuaded that abundant atmospheric oxygen in an environment with abundant liquid water constitutes definitive evidence of life. However, our own early biosphere thrived for more than a billion years in the absence of abundant atmospheric oxygen. The production of other, more reduced, gaseous biomarkers of "young" and/or anaerobic biospheres has not been systematically studied. Biological gas production is strongly controlled by the structure and function of microbial ecosystems. Investigations of microbial ecosystems that are close analogs of ancient communities offer multiple benefits. Such studies can interpret the production of the most important biomarker gases, while simultaneously helping us to understand the formidable array of ecological processes that guided early biological evolution. Astrobiologists must recognize those aspects of biosignatures that truly reflect the most fundamental, and therefore universal, properties of life. We must learn how the environment can modify biosignatures, and how technology can enable an array of biosignatures to be detected remotely within realistic budgetary constraints

DesMarais, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Comparison of MERRA-2 and ECCO-V4 Ocean Surface Heat Fluxes: Consequences of Different Forcing Feedbacks on Ocean Circulation and Implications for Climate Data Assimilation

Forcing ocean models with reanalysis data is a common practice in ocean modeling. As part of this practice, prescribed atmospheric state variables and interactive ocean SST (Sea Surface Temperature) are used to calculate fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. When forcing an ocean model with reanalysis fields, errors in the reanalysis data, errors in the ocean model and errors in the forcing formulation will generate a different solution compared to other ocean reanalysis solutions (which also have their own errors). As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere reanalysis, we compare surface heat fluxes from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to heat fluxes from a state-of-the-art oceanic reanalysis, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4, Release 2 (ECCO-v4). Then, we investigate the errors associated with the MITgcm (Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model) ocean model in its ECCO-v4 ocean reanalysis configuration (1992-2011) when it is forced with MERRA- 2 atmospheric reanalysis fields instead of with the ECCO-v4 adjoint optimized ERA-interim state variables. This is done by forcing ECCO-v4 ocean with and without feedbacks from MERRA-2 related to turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture and the outgoing long wave radiation. In addition, we introduce an intermediate forcing method that includes only the feedback from the interactive outgoing long wave radiation. The resulting ocean circulation is compared with ECCO-v4 reanalysis and in-situ observations. We show that, without feedbacks, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2 (which are directly related to the fact it was created without interactive ocean) result in considerable SST drifts and a large reduction in sea level. The bulk formulae and interactive outgoing long wave radiation, although providing air-sea feedbacks and reducing model-data misfit, strongly relax the ocean to observed SST and may result in unwanted features such as large change in the water budget. These features have implications in a desired forcing recipe to be used. The results strongly and unambiguously argue for next generation data assimilation climate studies to involve fully coupled systems.

MERRA-2↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermal and Mechanical Energy Performance Analysis of Closed-loop Systems in Hot-Dry-Rock and Hot-Wet-Rock Reservoirs

To understand the potential and limitations for recovering thermal and mechanical energy from closed-loop geothermal systems a collaborative study is underway that will investigate an array of system configurations, working fluids, geothermal reservoir characteristics, operational periods, and heat transfer enhancements. Closed-loop geothermal systems are distinguished from hydrothermal or enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in that the working fluid only circulates through drilled boreholes. Principal objectives of this study are to determine upper limits for thermal and mechanical energy recovery and optimal operational and configuration parameters for each scenario. Teams of scientists and engineers are applying a suite of numerical simulation and analytical tools to model the heat recovery from closed-loop geothermal systems, and then optimizing operational and configuration parameters to maximize the thermal and mechanical energy recovery. Results from the suite of numerical simulators and analytical tools, such as outlet and inlet states and temperature profiles in the geothermal reservoir over time are intercompared to increase confidence in the analysis. This paper documents the study findings for closed-loop systems in hot-dry-rock and hot-wet-rock reservoirs, where water is the working fluid. The characteristics of the hot-dry-rock reservoir were based on the U.S. Department of Energy's Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) site, near Milford Utah. Two objective functions are defined to optimize the operational and configuration parameters of the system, one each for the recovery of mechanical and thermal energy over the period of operation. For both objective functions, a surface plant thermal to mechanical energy conversion factor and an energy drilling cost is required. In keeping with the study objectives the surface plant conversion factor is determined from a second-law of thermodynamics analysis of a generic binary plant, and drilling costs are based on those from the Utah FORGE site and current national electrical costs.

closed-loop geothermal systems↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermal and Mechanical Energy Performance Analysis of Closed-loop Systems in Hot-Dry-Rock and Hot-Wet-Rock Reservoirs

To understand the potential and limitations for recovering thermal and mechanical energy from closed-loop geothermal systems a collaborative study is underway that will investigate an array of system configurations, working fluids, geothermal reservoir characteristics, operational periods, and heat transfer enhancements. Closed-loop geothermal systems are distinguished from hydrothermal or enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in that the working fluid only circulates through drilled boreholes. Principal objectives of this study are to determine upper limits for thermal and mechanical energy recovery and optimal operational and configuration parameters for each scenario. Teams of scientists and engineers are applying a suite of numerical simulation and analytical tools to model the heat recovery from closed-loop geothermal systems, and then optimizing operational and configuration parameters to maximize the thermal and mechanical energy recovery. Results from the suite of numerical simulators and analytical tools, such as outlet and inlet states and temperature profiles in the geothermal reservoir over time are intercompared to increase confidence in the analysis. This paper documents the study findings for closed-loop systems in hot-dry-rock and hot-wet-rock reservoirs, where water is the working fluid. The characteristics of the hot-dry-rock reservoir were based on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) site, near Milford Utah. Two objective functions are defined to optimize the operational and configuration parameters of the system, one each for the recovery of mechanical and thermal energy over the period of operation. For both objective functions, a surface plant thermal to mechanical energy conversion factor and an energy drilling cost is required. In keeping with the study objectives the surface plant conversion factor is determined from a second-law of thermodynamics analysis of a generic binary plant, and drilling costs are based on those from the Utah FORGE site and current national electrical costs.

Closed-loop geothermal systems, hot-dry-rock, hot-↗

DOE OSTI2022

FY22 Progress on Computational Modeling of the Water-Based NSTF

This report summarizes the system-level modeling effort by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) of the Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) in FY22. As an extension of the effort from FY21, this year’s work focuses primarily on the two-phase modeling of the NSTF using RELAP5-3D, particularly with the inclusion of the cavity model. The results from simulations were used to compare against experimental data for benchmarking purposes of the RELAP5 deck. Additionally, RELAP5 was used as a predictive tool to guide planned test operations and identify expected system behaviors. In the first part of this report, details are provided of the cavity omitted model where heat flux is applied directly as a boundary condition to the risers. The general trend predicted by the RELAP5 model matches that from the experimental data when a single-phase natural circulation flow is first established, followed by an oscillatory two-phase period and finally a stable two-phase flow. However, the onset of oscillations is predicted early by the model due to the smaller thermal mixing region in the tank. However, by expanding the simulated thermal mixing region in the tank, the onset of oscillations predicted by the model is able to match that from the experiment. These oscillations where studied in depth and are deduced to be flashing-induced instability. The model was then modified to simulate an accident scenario case where a representative heat load based on the full-scale Framatome’s 625 MW t SC-HTGR was applied directly to the riser channels. The simulated initial and boundary conditions were identical to those performed experimentally, facilitating direct comparisons between the predicted and experimental results. It was determined that the results showed some discrepancies remain, likely due to the overprediction of vapor generation rate by the computer model. In the second part of this report, the cavity model is re-introduced where it is observed that the RELAP5 prediction is now able to capture the major trends of the observed flow commonly observed during two-phase conditions. However, the onset of oscillations is once again predicted early by the model, possibly caused by the underprediction of heat loss from the heater and cavity. This is likely due to the omission of support structures in the cavity that can act as additional pathways for heat to escape to the environment. To overcome the underprediction of heat loss, part of the insulation surrounding the cavity side panels and the back of the heaters are removed to allow heat to escape directly to the environment, which then improves the RELAP5 prediction. Parametric studies are also performed to investigate the effects of heater power, tank inventory level, and tank gas space pressure on flow behaviors, also in direct comparison to conditions tested experimentally. User option-61 in the RELAP5-3D input deck, which changes the heat transfer coefficient correlations used for calculating the vapor generation, is also investigated where it is found that by enabling the option, the overall duration of oscillations is increased and matches that from the experiment better. The RELAP5 model is further benchmarked with a header inlet- throttling case where it is observed that the prediction from the model fails to capture some major features observed in the experiment. By using a modified loss coefficient curve for the valve, the accuracy of the prediction is improved where most of the major features observed in the experiment are predicted by the model. Lastly, the model is benchmarked with an inventory depletion scenario where it is observed that despite the modeling limitation of RELAP5, the prediction shows good agreement with the experimental data where major trends and features are captured by the model. Future work will see continued development of the current RELAP5-3D input deck of the NSTF to both improve the accuracy of the model’s predictive capability and continuing serving the experimental program. The mutually beneficial relationship between analysis and experimental efforts has become integral to the parent NSTF program, and the greater objective to fully understand and accurately predict the heat removal performance of a full scale RCCS concept.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1986

Effect of water immersion on cardiopulmonary physiology at high gravity (+Gz)

The cardiopulmonary responses of eight male subject between 21-31 years exposed to 1, 2, and 3 Gz during immersion at 35 + or - 0.5 C to heart level and during control dry rides are studied. Ventilation, O2 consumption, the end-tidal pressure of CO2, heart frequency, cardiac output, functional residual capacity, and the arterial pressure of CO2 were measured. It is observed that as Gz increases ventilation, heart frequency, and O2 consumption increase, and the end-tidal and arterial pressures of CO2 decrease during dry rides, but are not altered during immersion. It is detected that the functional residual capacity is lower during immersion and decreases in both the dry and immersed state as Gz increases, and cardiac output decreases as Gz increases in dry rides. It is noted that changes produced by acceleration in a Gz direction are due to the effect on the systemic circulation rather than to the effect on the lungs.

Arieli, R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Ocean transport and variability studies of the South Pacific, Southern, and Indian Oceans

The objectives of this study are to analyze ocean dynamics in the western South Pacific and the adjacent Southern Ocean and the eastern Indian Ocean. Specifically, our objectives for these three regions are, for the South Pacific Ocean: (1) To estimate the volume transport of the east Australian Current (EAC) along the Australian coast and in the Tasman Front, and to estimate the time variability (on seasonal and interannual time scales) of this transport. (2) To contribute to estimating the meridional heat and freshwater fluxes (and their variability) at about 30 deg S. Good estimates of the transport in the western boundary current are essential for accurate estimates of these fluxes. (3) To determine how the EAC transport (and its extension, the Tasman Front and the East Auckland Current) closes the subtropical gyre of the South Pacific and to better determine the structure at the confluence of this current and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. (4) To examine the structure and time variability of the circulation in the western South Pacific and the adjacent Southern Ocean, particularly at the Tasman Front. For the Indian Ocean: (5) To study the seasonal interannual variations in the strength of the Leeuwin Current. (6) To monitor the Pacific-Indian Ocean throughflow and the South Equatorial and the South Java Currents between northwest Australia and Indonesia. (7) To study the processes that form the water of the permanent oceanic thermocline and, in particular, the way in which new thermocline water enters the permanent thermocline in late winter and early spring as the mixed layer restratifies. For the Southern Ocean: (8) To study the mesoscale and meridional structure of the Southern Ocean between 150 deg E and 170 deg E; in particular, to describe the Antarctic frontal system south of Tasmania and determine its interannual variability; to estimate the exchanges of heat, salt, and other properties between the Indian and Pacific Oceans; and to investigate the annual ventilation of the Antarctic Intermediate Water and Subantarctic Mode Water Masses.

Church, John A.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Measurement of SST and SSS Using Frequencies in the Range 0.3 – 2.0 GHz

Wide bandwidth radiometer systems that make measurements at multiple frequencies in the range 300 MHz to 2 GHz have been proposed to address parameters important for understanding issues in the cryosphere associated with climate change such as ice sheet thickness and temperature. It is also possible with such a system to retrieve sea surface salinity (SSS) which is important for understanding the impact of climate change on ocean circulation at high latitude. In contemporary sensors for retrieving SSS, such as SMOS and SMAP, sea surface temperature (SST), another parameter important for understanding ocean circulation and necessary in the retrieval of salinity, is treated as an ancillary parameter obtained from an independent source. However, both SSS and SST have peaks in sensitivity below 1 GHz; and it has been shown that measurements at multiple frequencies in this portion of the spectrum can take advantage of this peak in sensitivity to improve the accuracy of the retrieval of SSS. In this manuscript it will be shown that there is also the potential to retrieve SST and, in cold water, the possibility for improved accuracy over existing retrievals.

SST↗

DOE OSTI2024

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo: Preprint

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. Using GHEDesigner, a lookup table was created to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on agent energy bills. This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of different costing and pricing future scenarios. While the code is still under development and nationwide simulations are ongoing, initial results for two states are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts and considering multiple costing scenarios.

ambient temperature loop↗

DOE OSTI2025

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. A lookup table was created using GHEDesigner to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on energy bills for building owners (agents). This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of future cost and price scenarios. Initial results for statewide analysis (for Vermont) and nationwide (for United States) are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts as well as evaluating multiple cost scenarios.

ambient-temperature loop↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations

Growing evidence indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift in a warming climate. However, the complexity of the climate system, including the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, tends to obfuscate the causal mechanism underlying the circulation shift. Here, using an idealised coupled aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting circulation, by isolating the contributing factors from the direct CO 2 forcing, the indirect ocean surface warming, and the wind-stress feedback from the ocean dynamics. We find that, in contrast to the direct CO 2 forcing, ocean surface warming, in particular an enhanced subtropical ocean warming, plays an important role in driving the circulation shift. This enhanced subtropical ocean warming emerges from the background Ekman convergence of surface anomalous heat in the absence of the ocean dynamical change. Additionally, it expands the tropical warm water zone, causes a poleward shift of the mid-latitude temperature gradient, hence forces a corresponding shift in the atmospheric circulation and the associated wind pattern. The shift in wind, in turn drives a shift in the ocean circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealised, capture the main features of the observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, storm tracks, precipitation and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that increase in greenhouse gas concentrations not only raises the temperature, but can also systematically shift the climate zones poleward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗

DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Confronting Models with Data: The GEWEX Cloud Systems Study

The GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS; GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) was organized to promote development of improved parameterizations of cloud systems for use in climate and numerical weather prediction models, with an emphasis on the climate applications. The strategy of GCSS is to use two distinct kinds of models to analyze and understand observations of the behavior of several different types of clouds systems. Cloud-system-resolving models (CSRMs) have high enough spatial and temporal resolutions to represent individual cloud elements, but cover a wide enough range of space and time scales to permit statistical analysis of simulated cloud systems. Results from CSRMs are compared with detailed observations, representing specific cases based on field experiments, and also with statistical composites obtained from satellite and meteorological analyses. Single-column models (SCMs) are the surgically extracted column physics of atmospheric general circulation models. SCMs are used to test cloud parameterizations in an un-coupled mode, by comparison with field data and statistical composites. In the original GCSS strategy, data is collected in various field programs and provided to the CSRM Community, which uses the data to "certify" the CSRMs as reliable tools for the simulation of particular cloud regimes, and then uses the CSRMs to develop parameterizations, which are provided to the GCM Community. We report here the results of a re-thinking of the scientific strategy of GCSS, which takes into account the practical issues that arise in confronting models with data. The main elements of the proposed new strategy are a more active role for the large-scale modeling community, and an explicit recognition of the importance of data integration.

Randall, David↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report: Improving NOAA's PORTS(R) Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including nautical charting, maritime navigation, hydrography, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings. Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years. NOAA s PORTS (Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System) DST (decision support tool), managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, supports safe and cost-efficient navigation by providing ship masters and pilots with accurate real-time information required to avoid groundings and collisions. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s PORTS. NASA has a long heritage of collecting data for ocean research, including its current Terra and Aqua missions. Numerous other missions provide additional important information for coastal management issues, and data collection will continue in the coming decade with such missions as the OSTM (Ocean Surface Topography Mission). OSTM will provide data on sea-surface heights for determining ocean circulation, climate change, and sea-level rise. We suggest that NASA incorporate OSTM altimeter data (C- and Ku-band) into NOAA s PORTS DST in support of NASA s Coastal Management National Application with secondary support to the Disaster Management and Public Health National Applications.

Guest, DeNeice↗

NASA NTRS1990

Earth observing satellite: Understanding the Earth as a system

There is now a plan for global studies which include two very large efforts. One is the International Geosphere/Biosphere Program (IGBP) sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions. The other initiative is Mission to Planet Earth, an unbrella program for doing three kinds of space missions. The major one is the Earth Observation Satellite (EOS). EOS is large polar orbiting satellites with heavy payloads. Two will be placed in orbit by NASA, one by the Japanese and one or two by ESA. The overall mission measurement objectives of EOS are summarized: (1) the global distribution of energy input to and energy output from the Earth; (2) the structure, state variables, composition, and dynamics of the atmosphere from the ground to the mesopause; (3) the physical and biological structure, state, composition, and dynamics of the land surface, including terrestrial and inland water ecosystems; (4) the rates, important sources and sinks, and key components and processes of the Earth's biogeochemical cycles; (5) the circulation, surface temperature, wind stress, sea state, and the biological activity of the oceans; (6) the extent, type, state, elevation, roughness, and dynamics of glaciers, ice sheets, snow and sea ice, and the liquid equivalent of snow in the global cryosphere; (7) the global rates, amounts, and distribution of precipitation; and (8) the dynamic motions of the Earth (geophysics) as a whole, including both rotational dynamics and the kinematic motions of the tectonic plates.

Soffen, Gerald↗