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At least 487 records · Page 27

An Enhanced Seasonal Transition that Intensified Summer Drought in the Central U.S.

Precipitation in the central U.S. decreases by about 25% during the seasonal transition from June to July, and this precipitation decrease has been observed to have intensified since 1979. Such an intensification could enhance future spring drought occurrences such as was the case in the 2012 "flash drought" in the Midwestern U.S., where conditions evolved quickly from being abnormally dry to exceptionally dry within a mere month from June to July. In this study, various atmospheric and land reanalysis datasets were analyzed to examine the trend calculated from 1979 to 2012 in the June-to-July seasonal transition. It was found that the change in precipitation deficit was accompanied by increased downward shortwave radiation flux and tropospheric subsidence, enhanced evaporative fraction, as well as an elevated planetary boundary layer height. The change in the tropospheric circulation encompassed an anomalous ridge over the western U.S. and a trough on either side; this wave-form circulation pattern is known to induce dry conditions in the central U.S. Possibly, the trends in the June-to-July seasonal shifts in precipitation, drought severity and tropospheric circulation intensified the 2012 "flash drought" in timing and extent. The knowledge of the trends allows one to anticipate the evolution of spring onset of drought into the summer.

Drought↗

Effective Power-Law Dependence of Lyapunov Exponents on the Central Mass in Galaxies

Using both numerical and analytical approaches, we demonstrate the existence of an effective power-law relation L alpha m(sup p) between themean Lyapunov exponent L of stellar orbits chaotically scattered by a supermassive black hole (BH) in the centre of a galaxy and the mass parameter m, i.e. ratio of the mass of the BH over the mass of the galaxy. The exponent p is found numerically to obtain values in the range p approximately equals 0.3-0.5. We propose a theoretical interpretation of these exponents, based on estimates of local 'stretching numbers', i.e. local Lyapunov exponents at successive transits of the orbits through the BH's sphere of influence. We thus predict p = 2/3 − q with q approximately equaling 0.1-0.2. Our basic model refers to elliptical galaxy models with a central core. However, we find numerically that an effective power-law scaling of L with m holds also in models with central cusp, beyond a mass scale up to which chaos is dominated by the influence of the cusp itself. We finally show numerically that an analogous law exists also in disc galaxies with rotating bars. In the latter case, chaotic scattering by the BH affects mainly populations of thick tube-like orbits surrounding some low-order branches of the x(sub 1) family of periodic orbits, as well as its bifurcations at low-order resonances, mainly the inner Lindblad resonance and the 4/1 resonance. Implications of the correlations between L and m to determining the rate of secular evolution of galaxies are discussed.

chaos aEuro" galaxies:↗

Climate-Induced Larch Growth Response Within the Central Siberian Permafrost Zone

Aim: estimation of larch (Larix gmelinii) growth response to current climate changes. Location: permafrost area within the northern part of Central Siberia (approximately 65.8 deg N, 98.5 deg E). Method: analysis of dendrochronological data, climate variables, drought index SPEI, GPP (gross primary production) and EVI vegetation index (both Aqua/MODIS satellite derived), and soil water content anomalies (GRACE satellite measurements of equivalent water thickness anomalies, EWTA). Results: larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with previous year August precipitation (r = 0.63), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), soil water anomalies (r = 0.79), early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), May and June drought index (r = 0.68-0.82). There are significant positive trends of TRW since late 1980s and GPP since the year 2000. Mean TRW increased by about 50%, which is similar to post-Little Ice Age warming. TRW correlated with GPP and EVI of larch stands (r = 0.68-0.69). Main conclusions: within the permafrost zone of central Siberia larch TRW growth is limited by early summer temperatures, available water from snowmelt, water accumulated within soil in the previous year, and permafrost thaw water. Water stress is one of the limiting factors of larch growth. Larch TRW growth and GPP increased during recent decades.

permafrost thaw↗

Comparison of Key Absorption and Optical Properties Between Pure and Transported Anthropogenic Dust over East and Central Asia

Asian dust particulate is one of the primary aerosol constituents in the Earth-atmosphere system that exerts profound influences on environmental quality, human health, the marine biogeochemical cycle, and Earth's climate. To date, the absorptive capacity of dust aerosol generated from the Asian desert region is still an open question. In this article, we compile columnar key absorption and optical properties of mineral dust over East and Central Asian areas by utilizing the multiyear quality-assured datasets observed at 13 sites of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). We identify two types of Asian dust according to threshold criteria from previously published literature. (1) The particles with high aerosol optical depth at 440 nm (AOD(440) > or = 0.4) and a low Angstrom wavelength exponent at 440-870 nm (alpha < 0.2) are defined as Pure Dust (PDU), which decreases disturbance of other non-dust aerosols and keeps high accuracy of pure Asian dust. (2) The particles with AOD(440) > or = 0.4 and 0.2 < alpha < 0.6 are designated as Transported Anthropogenic Dust (TDU), which is mainly dominated by dust aerosol and might mix with other anthropogenic aerosol types. Our results reveal that the primary components of high AOD days are predominantly dust over East and Central Asian regions, even if their variations rely on different sources, distance from the source, emission mechanisms, and meteorological characteristics. The overall mean and standard deviation of single-scattering albedo, asymmetry factor, real part and imaginary part of complex refractive index at 550 nm for Asian PDU are 0.935 +/- 0.014, 0.742 +/- 0.008, 1.526 +/- 0.029, and 0.00226 +/- 0.00056, respectively, while corresponding values are 0.921 +/- 0.021, 0.723 +/- 0.009, 1.521 +/- 0.025, and 0.00364 +/- 0.0014 for Asian TDU. Aerosol shortwave direct radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface (SFC), and in the atmospheric layer (ATM) for Asian PDU (alpha < 0.2) and TDU (0.2 < alpha < 0.6) computed in this study, are a factor of 2 smaller than the results of Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) mineral-accumulated (mineral-acc.) and mineral-transported (mineral-tran.) modes. Therefore, we are convinced that our results hold promise for updating and improving accuracies of Asian dust characteristics in present-day remote sensing applications and regional or global climate models.

Bi, Jianrong↗

The Little Ice Age and Human-Environmental Interactions in the Central Balkans: Insights from a New Serbian Paleorecord

This paper presents a 600-year well-dated, high-resolution Central Balkan paleo-record including the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1450-850 CE). Utilizing pollen-based REVEALS modelling estimates, geochemical indicators, rarefaction analyses and the AMS 14C-based Bacon age model, this first-hand record from the Sava Basin reveals the transformation of the Central Balkan landscape involving linkages between changing climatic and socio-political regimes. The pre-LIA interval (1370-1418 CE) in the Sava Region reveals a wooded steppe and increased cultivation under warmer/stable climatic and socio-political conditions. In contrast, the LIA interval in the region is expressed through continuous transitions between forest and grassland, extensive land erosion and stressed agriculture, potentially as a collective artifact of the climatic variability and human impact associated with socio- political stressors of the time. The post-LIA/Industrial Era interval (1850-2012 CE) in the Sava Region shows an overall increase in woodland as well as agriculture following the exit of the Ottomans. However, increased population pressures and the subsequent onset of the Industrial Revolution as well as increased trade led to intense deforestation throughout the 20th Century, which continued during the Socialist period.

Societal impacts of climate change↗

The Stratigraphy of Central and Western Butte and the Greenheugh Pediment Contact

The Greenheugh pediment at the base of Aeolis Mons (Mt. Sharp), which may truncate units in the Murray formation and is capped by a thin sandstone unit, appears to represent a major shift in climate history within Gale crater. The pediment appears to be an erosional remnant of potentially a much more extensive feature. Curiosity’s traverse through the southern extent of Glen Torridon (south of Vera Rubin ridge) has brought the rover in contact with several new stratigraphic units that lie beneath the pediment. These strata were visited at two outcrop-forming buttes (Central and Western butte- both remnants of the retreating pediment) south of an orbitally defined boundary marking the transition from the Fractured Clay-bearing Unit (fCU) and the fractured Intermediate Unit (fIU). Here we present preliminary interpretations of the stratigraphy within Central and Western buttes and propose the Western butte cap rocks do not match the pediment capping unit.

Bryk, A. B.↗

Space Radiation and Central Nervous System Impacts: NASA Standards and Evidence

It is well understood that large radiation localized doses to the brain cause clinically significant impacts to the central nervous system in human populations. However, the effects in adults exposed to lower doses remain unclear due to lack of data in relevant human cohorts. The impact of exposure to high-energy particles is even less understood. NASA’s Human Research Program relies heavily on model systems to characterize the impacts of the space radiation environment on the human brain and how potential changes may effect mission success and long term health and well-being. Animal, cellular, and molecular experiments implicate multiple – and possibly related – mechanisms that mediate impacts to the central nervous system in model systems including, but not limited to inflammation, immune responses, oxidative stress, metabolism, myelination, molecule transport, electrophysiology, and a variety of “omic” changes. While animal studies demonstrate potential changes across a number of cognitive and behavioral domains the direct applicability to the astronaut population remains unclear. Furthermore data access experiments and model systems can be inconsistent and dependent on multiple experimental variables indicating a clear need for robust validation. To minimize potential impacts to astronauts NASA limits dose to the CNS based on a combination of terrestrial epidemiology informed by experimental evidence in model systems. To date no recommendations have been provided by the National Committee on Radiation Protection and Measurements. This presentation will provide an overview of NASA’s current dose limits for CNS exposure to space radiation as well as highlights of the current state of evidence and ongoing research.

S Robin Elgart↗

The Current State and Future of the Former Central Nervous System Risk Managed by Space Radiation Element Part of NASA’s Human Research Program

Historically, the Space Radiation Element, as part of the NASA Human Research Program, was responsible for the scientific strategy and funding of research focused on characterizing and mitigating the effects of space radiation exposure on the central nervous system (CNS). During the past few years, there have been two major changes that have affected the management of the science associated with the CNS risk. The first major change was the integration of several related risks: CNS (C), behavioral medicine (B), and sensorimotor (S) to be managed as an integrated effort called CBS. CBS was formed to accelerate research on combined spaceflight stressors, specifically space radiation, microgravity, isolation, and confinement. CBS was managed by Human Factors and Behavioral Performance (HFBP) with support and inputs from Space Radiation as well as Human Health Countermeasures. Secondly, and more recently, the CNS risk was absorbed by the behavioral medicine risk currently also held by HFPB. As a result, the gaps associated with CNS were removed and aspects of them are represented in the BMED gaps (link). However, due to recent changes in element leadership, budget, and timeline, extensive restructuring of CBS is in progress. In addition, in an effort to harmonize datasets to be used in modeling efforts, an Animal Standardization TIM was held in June 2021 to standardize the type of behavioral and cognitive tasks as well as experimental set-ups used in animal models of future funded research. This presentation is an effort to communicate with the radiation research community concerning the strategy, management, and future of the former central nervous system risk and the role of the Space Radiation Element.

Janice A Zawaski↗

Minipigs as a Model to Study Separate and Combined Effects of Space Radiation and Altered Gravity on Cardiovascular disease, Spaceflight-Associated Neuro-Ocular Syndrome (SANS), and Central Nervous System (CNS) effects

Minipigs are a well-characterized animal model used to study thecardiovascular system, metabolism, bone, gastrointestinal tract,pancreas, liver, kidney, lung, immune system, central nervous system(white matter) etc. Due to their anatomical, physiological, andbiochemical similarities to humans, minipigs are considered atranslational model in biomedical research and development. Also, their large size and cognitive abilities allow collection of supplementary information regarding the central nervous system(BMed) and Spaceflight-Associated Neuro-Ocular Syndrome (SANS) risk.

Janapriya Saha↗

Estimation of Thermodynamic and Dynamic Contributions to Sea Ice Growth in the Central Arctic Using ICESat-2 and MOSAiC SIMBA Buoy Data

The fine spatial resolution of the ICESat-2 (IS2) satellite altimeter allows monitoring the evolution of sea ice thickness with detailed dynamic information (e.g. ridges and leads). In this study, we first assess the ability of IS2 to estimate thermodynamic ice growth and dynamic thickening during the ice-growing season in the central Arctic Ocean. As an indicator of the thermodynamic ice growth, we use 10 thermistor string-based sea ice mass balance array (SIMBA) buoys deployed at a scale of ~ 50 km from the Icebreaker Polarstern during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. We collect IS2 data within 20 km buffer distance from the individual buoys, and calculate the mode, median, and mean of the IS2-derived ice thickness. The IS2 modal thickness shows the least bias (−0.169 m) with the buoy ice thickness, representing level ice thickness. In addition, the increasing rate of the IS2 modal thickness is close to the thermodynamic ice growth with a small bias of −0.054 cm/day. However, the increasing rates of the IS2 median and mean thickness are greater than the thermodynamic ice growth by about 0.114 cm/day and 0.198 cm/day, respectively, because they also include ice growth caused by thickness redistribution during dynamic deformation. The dynamic contributions may account for 26.1 ± 10.3% and 34.4 ± 10.1% of the total increase of the IS2 median and mean thickness, respectively. Within a ~ 50 km radius area from the MOSAiC Central Observatory, IS2 measurements exhibit that the ridge fraction increased from <2% in November to ~ 4% in March (~0.029%/day of average increasing rate) and ridge height increased about 0.047 cm/day during the same period. However, lead formation does not show significant contributions to the dynamic ice thickening because leads are temporary features lasting only 2–3 days. Although there are considerable uncertainties in IS2 ice thickness estimation and IS2-buoy thickness comparison, this study emphasizes the importance of combining measurements by IS2 and SIMBA buoys to explain the regional sea ice mass balance with separating the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions.

satellite altimeter↗

Chile Wildfires: Utilizing NASA and NOAA Earth Observations to Determine Lightning-ignited Wildfire Risks in Central Chile

In recent years, Central Chile has experienced wildfires of increasing frequency and intensity which threaten natural resources and communities. The Corporación Nacional Forestal (CONAF) responds to wildfires caused by a variety of ignitions, including lightning, but it is difficult to determine the prevalence of lightning-ignited wildfires based solely on ground observations. In collaboration with CONAF and the Embassy of Chile, Agricultural Office, the team used Earth observations to map coincidence of lightning strikes and wildfire ignitions. The Active Fire Product of Suomi NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) identified wildfires as thermal anomalies, which the team compared to the lightning events detected by NOAA’s GOES-16 Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). Next, the team mapped lightning strike frequency and lightning related wildfires across the study area. Finally, the team calculated and mapped a relative estimate of lightning-ignited wildfire vulnerability across the year, fire season (December – March), and off-season (April – November) by summing the following factors: lightning frequency, the Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) and land surface temperature (LST). These risks were then weighted by fuel availability. Preliminary analysis of the lightning fire relationship showed a spatiotemporal coincidence, primarily in the South-central region of study, near Temuco, and isolated areas on the Andean front. The team identified areas at risk of lightning-induced wildfires, predominantly in the northern third of the study area and along the Andean front. Adjusting the relative weight of risk factors and improving the lightning and fire coincidence map by clustering VIIRS thermal anomalies into fire events could reduce discrepancies and improve risk assessments for future work.

Christopher Matechik↗

Insights of Boundary Layer Turbulence Over the Complex Terrain of Central Himalaya from GVAX Field Campaign

Limited observations hinder understanding of turbulent characteristics in mountainous terrain resulting from heating or cooling of slopes, wind, vertical motions, and heat or moisture advection, which disperse aerosols and other pollutants over the region. In this study, the 1290 MHz radar wind profiler data are utilized to compute the boundary layer height (BLH), the refractive index structure constant (C n 2 ), and the energy dissipation rate (ε) over the central Himalayan site for the period of November 2011 to March 2012, from the intense Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) field measurements. The radar wind profiler (RWP) based estimation of BLH and ε is validated against the radiosonde, representing the effectiveness of the datasets for further investigation. The strong seasonal variation of log C n 2 and log ε, with average values of ≈ -12 m -2/3 and -2 m 2 s -3 , respectively, is associated with the mountain-induced local circulations and stability in the atmospheric boundary layer. The weak stratification during weak flow is found to be responsible for deep mixing, particularly in the nocturnal boundary layer in spring. Furthermore, the level of cloud cover significantly impacts the strength of turbulence, with the highest cloud cover resulting in a substantial increase in log C n 2 (approximately -11 m -2/3 ) due to intense updraft and downdraft motions compared to clear skies. Additionally, the distribution of aerosol loading across the site, coupled with the behavior of BLH, atmospheric stability, and orographic-induced circulations, implies distinctive seasonal mechanisms for transporting aerosols toward the mountains. This study offers valuable insights into the diurnal and seasonal patterns of turbulent mixing and the mechanisms behind the transport of pollutants through boundary layer processes over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation on cloud vertical structures based on Ka-band cloud radar observations at Wuhan in Central China

Based on vertically pointing observations of Ka-band frequency-modulated continuous millimeter wave cloud radar (MMCR) in 2020, we investigate cloud vertical structures at Wuhan in central China. Case comparison indicates that the cloud top locations in the MMCR observation are largely consistent with those in satellite data. The precipitation has the occurrence frequency of 9.5% over the year, with the maximum value of 16.3% in July and the submaximal value of 14.7% in January, showing the significant influences of monsoons on precipitation at Wuhan. As the humid, cloudy and rainy climate, the probability of precipitation and non-precipitation clouds increases gradually from 53.9% in January to a large value of 71.5% in July. The non-precipitation clouds have the probability of 44.5% in the year, with two prominent peaks at the reflectivities of -35 to -30 dBZ around 12 km in summer and - 37– -32 dBZ around 10 km in spring. The cloud top can reach the heights of 14.49, 16.62, 13.38 and 11.73 km from spring to winter, respectively. The monthly mean cloud layer thickness is the largest (2.18 km) in May and September, and the smallest (1.36 km) in November. The seasonally averaged base and top heights and thickness of clouds have small diurnal variations. The high cloud is predominant in the warm months from May to September, and in the other cool months, the middle cloud has the most fraction. The quantitative investigation of clouds is helpful in improving the cloud parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cost-optimal evaluation of centralized and distributed microgrid topologies considering voltage constraints

Optimal design of hybrid renewable mini-grids requires both economic and power quality considerations. Existing modeling approaches address these considerations via separate or loosely coupled models. Here, we extend REopt—a techno-economic optimization model developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory—to consider both within a single model. REopt formulates the design problem as a mixed-integer linear program that solves for a site's optimal technology mix, sizing, and operation to minimize life cycle cost. REopt has traditionally assumed a single node system. In the work presented here, we expand the REopt platform to consider multiple connected nodes with associated voltage constraints. In order to do this, we model power flow using a fixed-point linear approximation method. Additionally, we then use the model to explore design considerations of mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, we evaluate under what combinations of transmission line distance and capacity it is technically viable and economically preferable to build multiple isolated mini-grids versus an interconnected, centralized system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework

Flood prediction systems need hierarchical atmospheric, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to predict rainfall, runoff, streamflow, and floodplain inundation. The accuracy of such systems depends on the error propagation through the modeling chain, sensitivity to input data, and choice of models. In this study, we used multiple precipitation forcings (hindcast and forecast) to drive hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to analyze the impacts of various drivers on the estimates of flood inundation depth and extent. We implement this framework to unravel the August 2021 extreme flooding event that occurred in Central Tennessee, USA. We used two radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (STAGE4 and MRMS) as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to drive a series of models in the hierarchical framework, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model, and the AutoRoute and TRITON inundation models. An evaluation with observed high-water marks demonstrates that the framework can reasonably simulate flood inundation. Despite the complex error propagation mechanism of the modeling chain, we show that inundation estimates are most sensitive to rainfall estimates. Most notably, QPF significantly underestimates flood magnitudes and inundations leading to unanticipated severe flooding for all stakeholders involved in the event. Finally, we discuss the implications of the hydrodynamic modeling framework for real-time flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Therapeutic targeting of membrane-associated proteins in central nervous system tumors

The activity of the most complex system, the central nervous system (CNS) is profoundly regulated by a huge number of membrane-associated proteins (MAP). A minor change stimulates immense chemical changes and the elicited response is organized by MAP, which acts as a receptor of that chemical or channel enabling the flow of ions. Slight changes in the activity or expression of these MAPs lead to severe consequences such as cognitive disorders, memory loss, or cancer. CNS tumors are heterogeneous in nature and hard-to-treat due to random mutations in MAPs; like as overexpression of EGFRvIII/TGFβR/VEGFR, change in adhesion molecules α5β3 integrin/SEMA3A, imbalance in ion channel proteins, etc. Extensive research is under process for developing new therapeutic approaches using these proteins such as targeted cytotoxic radiotherapy, drug-delivery, and prodrug activation, blocking of receptors like GluA1, developing viral vector against cell surface receptor. The combinatorial approach of these strategies along with the conventional one might be more potential. Henceforth, our review focuses on in-depth analysis regarding MAPs aiming for a better understanding for developing an efficient therapeutic approach for targeting CNS tumors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Performance Assessment of Pakistani Central Receiver Plant Case Study Using Aimpoint Strategy Optimization Tools

Pakistan has a high potential for both photovoltaic and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) deployment to meet its energy requirements. Previous feasibility studies have shown that a variety of CSP technologies are both technically and economically viable in the Pakistani climate and can significantly mitigate the country's current lack of grid reliability. This work aims to enhance the performance of a previously designed Central Receiver System (CRS) plant for Pakistan using state-of-the-art aimpoint optimization methods. Results from our case study show that optimized aiming strategies have increased practicality due to their adherence to flux limitations on the receiver, and offer ~2.4% more thermal energy delivered to the receiver for the Pakistani case study compared to modern performance characterization software, translating to up to 149 additional hours of nameplate-capacity production to address the shortfall in an electricity-starved market.

central receiver system↗