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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

VAINE: Visualization and AI for Natural Experiments

Natural experiments are observational studies where the assignment of treatment conditions to different populations occur by chance ``in the wild''. Researchers from fields such as economics, healthcare, and the social sciences leverage natural experiments to conduct hypothesis testing and causal effect estimation for treatment and outcome variables that would otherwise be costly, infeasible, or unethical. In this paper, we introduce VAINE (Visualization and AI for Natural Experiments), a visual analytics tool for identifying and understanding natural experiments from observational data. We then demonstrate how VAINE can be used to validate causal relationships, estimate average treatment effects, and identify statistical phenomena such as Simpson’s paradox through two use cases.

Guo, Grace↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sustainable Development Tool Using Meta‐Analysis and DPSIR Framework — Application to Savannah River Basin, U.S.

Abstract The Savannah River Basin (SRB), a highly stressed southeastern river in United States is a conservation priority for State, Federal government, and nongovernment organizations. A four‐stage sustainable development tool was developed in this study using meta‐analysis and the drivers–pressures–state–impacts–responses (DPSIR) framework. Through the synthesis of ~150 references in the SRB this study addressed three research questions: (1) What were the drivers, pressures, state, impacts, and responses (components of DRSIR framework) in SRB (2) Can these components be grouped together from various studies in SRB (3) Can causal chain/loops be developed, and will they be useful for policy and decision making? First in the Stage 1, the state of the SRB was represented (S component of DPSIR), in Stage 2, the drivers–pressures–impacts–responses (DPIR components of DPSIR) were represented, in the third stage (Stage 3) the common units characterizing each DPSIR component were identified. Finally, in Stage 4, the causal chains/loops were developed and organized into scientific research at a level appropriate for building better understanding about SRB and helping stakeholders and policy makers in managing basin sustainability challenges. Although the tool was applied to SRB, the methodology is applicable to other river basins and ecosystems.

Pagan, Janeesa↗
DOE OSTI2023

Salinity–induced limits to mangrove canopy height

Aim: Mangrove canopy height is a key metric to assess tidal forests' resilience in the face of climate change. In terrestrial forests, tree height is primarily determined by water availability, plant hydraulic design, and disturbance regime. However, the role of water stress remains elusive in tidal environments, where saturated soils are prevalent, and salinity can substantially affect the soil water potential. Location: Global. Time Period: The canopy height dataset provides a global snapshot of the maximum mangrove height geographical distribution for the year 2000. Climate and environmental variables extend over the period 1970–2018. Major Taxa Studied: Mangroves. Methods: We use global observations of maximum canopy height, species richness, air temperature, and seawater salinity—a proxy of soil water salt concentration—to explore the causal link between salinity and mangrove stature. Results: Our findings suggest that salt stress limits mangrove height. High salinity favours more salt-tolerant species, narrowing the spectrum of viable traits. Highly salt-tolerant mangroves have evolved to cope with high salt concentrations in the soil, but this adaptation comes at a cost. They typically have lower rates of photosynthesis and growth, resulting in reduced productivity and smaller stature compared to more salt-sensitive mangrove species. This suggests a causal link between salinity, biodiversity, and tree height, where high salinity selects for more salt-tolerant species that tend to be less productive and shorter. Conclusions: We hypothesize that the salinity-induced limit to mangrove canopy height is the direct result of a reduction of primary productivity, an increment in the risk of xylem cavitation, and an indirect consequence of the decrease in biodiversity. As sea-level rise enhances coastal salinisation, failure to account for these effects can lead to incorrect estimates of future carbon stocks in Tropical coastal ecosystems and endanger preservation efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-252: An Investigation of Gamma Knife Frame Definition Error When Using a Pre-Planning Workflow

Purpose: To determine causal factors related to high frame definition error when treating GK patients using a pre-planning workflow. Methods: 160 cases were retrospectively reviewed. All patients received treatment using a pre-planning workflow whereby stereotactic coordinates are determined from a CT scan acquired after framing using a fiducial box. The planning software automatically detects the fiducials and compares their location to expected values based on the rigid design of the fiducial system. Any difference is reported as mean and maximum frame definition error. The manufacturer recommends these values be less than 1.0 mm and 1.5 mm. In this study, frame definition error was analyzed in comparison with a variety of factors including which neurosurgeon/oncologist/physicist was involved with the procedure, number of post used during framing (3 or 4), type of lesion, and which CT scanner was utilized for acquisition. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach was used to statistically evaluate the data and determine causal factors related to instances of high frame definition error. Results: Two factors were identified as significant: number of post (p=0.0003) and CT scanner (p=0.0001). Further analysis showed that one of the four scanners was significantly different than the others. This diagnostic scanner was identified as an older model with localization lasers not tightly calibrated. The average value for maximum frame definition error using this scanner was 1.48 mm (4 posts) and 1.75 mm (3 posts). For the other scanners this value was 1.13 mm (4 posts) and 1.40 mm (3 posts). Conclusion: In utilizing a pre-planning workflow the choice of CT scanner matters. Any scanner utilized for GK should undergo routine QA at a level appropriate for radiation oncology. In terms of 3 vs 4 post, it is hypothesized that three posts provide less stability during CT acquisition. This will be tested in future work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A noncoding single-nucleotide polymorphism at 8q24 drives IDH1 -mutant glioma formation

Establishing causal links between inherited polymorphisms and cancer risk is challenging. Here, we focus on the single-nucleotide polymorphism rs55705857, which confers a sixfold greater risk of isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH)–mutant low-grade glioma (LGG). Here, we reveal that rs55705857 itself is the causal variant and is associated with molecular pathways that drive LGG. Mechanistically, we show that rs55705857 resides within a brain-specific enhancer, where the risk allele disrupts OCT2/4 binding, allowing increased interaction with the Myc promoter and increased Myc expression. Mutating the orthologous mouse rs55705857 locus accelerated tumor development in an Idh1 R132H -driven LGG mouse model from 472 to 172 days and increased penetrance from 30% to 75%. Our work reveals mechanisms of the heritable predisposition to lethal glioma in ~40% of LGG patients.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diversity and scale: Genetic architecture of 2068 traits in the VA Million Veteran Program

One of the justifiable criticisms of human genetic studies is the underrepresentation of participants from diverse populations. Lack of inclusion must be addressed at-scale to identify causal disease factors and understand the genetic causes of health disparities. We present genome-wide associations for 2068 traits from 635,969 participants in the Department of Veterans Affairs Million Veteran Program, a longitudinal study of diverse United States Veterans. Systematic analysis revealed 13,672 genomic risk loci; 1608 were only significant after including non-European populations. Fine-mapping identified causal variants at 6318 signals across 613 traits. One-third (n = 2069) were identified in participants from non-European populations. This reveals a broadly similar genetic architecture across populations, highlights genetic insights gained from underrepresented groups, and presents an extensive atlas of genetic associations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Extracting nuclear symmetry energies at high densities from observations of neutron stars and gravitational waves

By numerically inverting the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkov (TOV) equation using an explicitly isospin-dependent parametric Equation of State (EOS) of dense neutron-rich nucleonic matter, a restricted EOS parameter space is established using observational constraints on the radius, maximum mass, tidal deformability and causality condition of neutron stars (NSs). The constraining band obtained for the pressure as a function of energy (baryon) density is in good agreement with that extracted recently by the LIGO+Virgo Collaborations from their improved analyses of the NS tidal deformability in GW170817. Rather robust upper and lower boundaries on nuclear symmetry energies are extracted from the observational constraints up to about twice the saturation density ρ 0 of nuclear matter. More quantitatively, the symmetry energy at 2ρ 0 is constrained to E sym (2ρ 0 )=46.9±10.1 E sym (2ρ 0 ) = 46.9 ± 10.1 MeV excluding many existing theoretical predictions scattered between E sym (2ρ 0 )=15 and 100 MeV. Moreover, by studying variations of the causality surface where the speed of sound equals that of light at central densities of the most massive neutron stars within the restricted EOS parameter space, the absolutely maximum mass of neutron stars is found to be 2.40 M ⊙ approximately independent of the EOSs used. Finally, this limiting mass is consistent with findings of several recent analyses and numerical general relativity simulations about the maximum mass of the possible super-massive remanent produced in the immediate aftermath of GW170817. deformability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Color Confinement, Hadron Dynamics, and Hadron Spectroscopy from Light-Front Holography and Superconformal Algebra

The QCD light-front Hamiltonian equation H L F Ψ = M 2 Ψ derived from quantization at fixed LF time τ = t + z / c provides a causal, frame-independent method for computing hadron spectroscopy as well as dynamical observables such as structure functions, transverse momentum distributions, and distribution amplitudes. The QCD Lagrangian with zero quark mass has no explicit mass scale. de Alfaro, Fubini, and Furlan (dAFF) have made an important observation that a mass scale can appear in the equations of motion without affecting the conformal invariance of the action if one adds a term to the Hamiltonian proportional to the dilatation operator or the special conformal operator. If one applies the dAFF procedure to the QCD light-front Hamiltonian, it leads to a color-confining potential κ 4 ζ 2 for mesons, where ζ 2 is the LF radial variable conjugate to the q q ¯ invariant mass squared. The same result, including spin terms, is obtained using light-front holography, the duality between light-front dynamics and A d S 5 , if one modifies the A d S 5 action by the dilaton e κ 2 z 2 in the fifth dimension z . When one generalizes this procedure using superconformal algebra, the resulting light-front eigensolutions provide a unified Regge spectroscopy of meson, baryon, and tetraquarks, including remarkable supersymmetric relations between the masses of mesons and baryons and a universal Regge slope. The pion q q ¯ eigenstate has zero mass at m q = 0 . The superconformal relations also can be extended to heavy-light quark mesons and baryons. This approach also leads to insights into the physics underlying hadronization at the amplitude level. I will also discuss the remarkable features of the Poincaré invariant, causal vacuum defined by light-front quantization and its impact on the interpretation of the cosmological constant. AdS/QCD also predicts the analytic form of the nonperturbative running coupling α s ( Q 2 ) ∝ e - Q 2 / 4 κ 2 . The mass scale κ underlying hadron masses can be connected to the parameter Λ M S ¯ in the QCD running coupling by matching the nonperturbative dynamics to the perturbative QCD regime. The result is an effective coupling α s ( Q 2 ) defined at all momenta. One obtains empirically viable predictions for spacelike and timelike hadronic form factors, structure functions, distribution amplitudes, and transverse momentum distributions. Finally, I address the interesting question of whether the momentum sum rule is valid for nuclear structure functions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

GNATFinder

SAND2023-05510O GNATFinder is a software tool for extracting graphical neural activity threads (GNATs) from spiking neural networks. GNATFinder efficiently extracts GNATs from spiking neural network data. A GNAT is a graph that represents the causal relationships between individual spikes in a spiking network using a combination of the network connectivity structure and the timing of individual spikes. The software allows for identifying similar, repeating threads that often reappear in a dataset. Using quadtree data structures to recursively subdivide the time interval over which spikes were produced by the spiking network, GNATFinder allows for efficient pairwise comparisons of spike times to determine the degree of causal relatedness among all pairs of spikes in a dataset. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2025

CRISPR-CARB/nocap

Network Optimization and Causal Analysis of Perturb-seq (NOCAP) is a software package for causal inference of gene regulation networks using data from perturb-seq.

George, August↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simplified Approximations of Direct Cumulus Entrainment and Detrainment

Abstract In recent years, direct calculations of simulated cumulus entrainment and detrainment have facilitated new physical insights into these highly elusive but critically important processes. However, these calculations require substantial computational resources that may limit their widespread usage. To facilitate such calculations, two simplified approximations of direct cumulus entrainment and detrainment are examined herein. The first approximation, termed the “semidirect” method, follows a standard bulk approach but makes more realistic assumptions about the sources of entrained and detrained air near the cloud edges. In contrast, the second approximation (the “projection” method) uses the governing equations of motion to project whether grid points near the cloud edge will entrain or detrain as the mean cloud ascends by one grid point. Verification exercises using large-eddy simulations reveal that both methods generally agree better with corresponding direct entrainment/detrainment estimates than the traditional bulk formulation, with the projection method outperforming the semidirect method. The two methods can be used in a synergistic fashion, with the semidirect method helping to optimize the projection method, to suit a wide range of applications. Because the latter incorporates the essential dynamics of entrainment and detrainment at the local scale, it can be used to gain physical insight into the causal mechanisms regulating these complex processes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models

Studies have recently reported statistically significant relationships between observed year-to-year spring Antarctic ozone variability and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and surface temperatures in spring–summer. This study reported herein investigates whether current chemistry–climate models (CCMs) can capture these relationships, in particular, the connection between November total column ozone (TCO) and Australian summer surface temperatures, where years with anomalously high TCO over the Antarctic polar cap tend to be followed by warmer summers. The interannual ozone–temperature teleconnection is examined over the historical period in the observations and simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and nine other models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). There is a systematic difference between the WACCM experiments forced with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and those with an interactive ocean. Strong correlations between TCO and Australian temperatures are only obtained for the uncoupled experiment, suggesting that the SSTs could be important for driving both variations in Australian temperatures and the ozone hole, with no causal link between the two. Other CCMI models also tend to capture this relationship with more fidelity when driven by observed SSTs, although additional research and targeted modeling experiments are required to determine causality and further explore the role of model biases and observational uncertainty. The results indicate that CCMs can reproduce the relationship between spring ozone and summer Australian climate reported in observational studies, suggesting that incorporating ozone variability could improve seasonal predictions; however, more work is required to understand the difference between the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A systematic decision-making methodology to formalize the selection of degree of realism in screening analysis of probabilistic risk assessment

In the nuclear power domain, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is used to inform decision-making for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Recently, there has been an increase in the utilization of modeling and simulation (M&S) to support the estimation of PRA inputs. Risk analysts should carefully select the PRA items that require M&S and their degree of realism (DoR) with consideration of the required resources. To support this selection, this article formulates a systematic decision-making approach for the DoR selection. The DoR selection is made based on two predictive decision-making attributes: the predicted differences in safety risk estimate (ΔSaRi) and the cost of analysis (ΔCAN). This research also develops and quantifies causal models to estimate ΔSaRi and ΔCAN. The causal model-based prediction of ΔSaRi and ΔCAN helps reduce the trial-and-error nature of the DoR selection in the PRA screening analysis and provides insights for DoR selection and the gradual refinements of PRA realism. This approach is demonstrated for a case study on fire PRA of NPPs, where an adequate DoR is selected from two fire models: an engineering correlation and a zone model.

Alkhatib, Sari [Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗
DOE OSTI2015

Indoor Environmental Exposures and Exacerbation of Asthma: An Update to the 2000 Review by the Institute of Medicine

Background: Previous research has found relationships between specific indoor environmental exposures and exacerbation of asthma. Objectives: In this review we provide an updated summary of knowledge from the scientific literature on indoor exposures and exacerbation of asthma. Methods: Peer-reviewed articles published from 2000 to 2013 on indoor exposures and exacerbation of asthma were identified through PubMed, from reference lists, and from authors’ files. Articles that focused on modifiable indoor exposures in relation to frequency or severity of exacerbation of asthma were selected for review. Research findings were reviewed and summarized with consideration of the strength of the evidence. Results: Sixty-nine eligible articles were included. Major changed conclusions include a causal relationship with exacerbation for indoor dampness or dampness-related agents (in children); associations with exacerbation for dampness or dampness-related agents (in adults), endotoxin, and environmental tobacco smoke (in preschool children); and limited or suggestive evidence for association with exacerbation for indoor culturable Penicillium or total fungi, nitrogen dioxide, rodents (nonoccupational), feather/down pillows (protective relative to synthetic bedding), and (regardless of specific sensitization) dust mite, cockroach, dog, and dampness-related agents. Discussion: This review, incorporating evidence reported since 2000, increases the strength of evidence linking many indoor factors to the exacerbation of asthma. Conclusions should be considered provisional until all available evidence is examined more thoroughly. Conclusion: Multiple indoor exposures, especially dampness-related agents, merit increased attention to prevent exacerbation of asthma, possibly even in nonsensitized individuals. Additional research to establish causality and evaluate interventions is needed for these and other indoor exposures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Training Population Optimization for Genomic Selection in Miscanthus

Miscanthus is a perennial grass with potential for lignocellulosic ethanol production. To ensure its utility for this purpose, breeding efforts should focus on increasing genetic diversity of the nothospecies Miscanthus × giganteus (M×g) beyond the single clone used in many programs. Germplasm from the corresponding parental species M. sinensis (Msi) and M. sacchariflorus (Msa) could theoretically be used as training sets for genomic prediction of M×g clones with optimal genomic estimated breeding values for biofuel traits. To this end, we first showed that subpopulation structure makes a substantial contribution to the genomic selection (GS) prediction accuracies within a 538-member diversity panel of predominately Msi individuals and a 598-member diversity panels of Msa individuals. We then assessed the ability of these two diversity panels to train GS models that predict breeding values in an interspecific diploid 216-member M×g F2 panel. Low and negative prediction accuracies were observed when various subsets of the two diversity panels were used to train these GS models. To overcome the drawback of having only one interspecific M×g F2 panel available, we also evaluated prediction accuracies for traits simulated in 50 simulated interspecific M×g F2 panels derived from different sets of Msi and diploid Msa parents. The results revealed that genetic architectures with common causal mutations across Msi and Msa yielded the highest prediction accuracies. Ultimately, these results suggest that the ideal training set should contain the same causal mutations segregating within interspecific M×g populations, and thus efforts should be undertaken to ensure that individuals in the training and validation sets are as closely related as possible.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining braneworlds with entanglement entropy

We propose swampland criteria for braneworlds viewed as effective field theories of defects coupled to semiclassical gravity. We do this by exploiting their holographic interpretation. We focus on general features of entanglement entropies and their holographic calculations. Entropies have to be positive. Furthermore, causality imposes certain constraints on the surfaces that are used holographically to compute them, most notably a property known as causal wedge inclusion. As a test case, we explicitly constrain the Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati term as a second-order-in-derivatives correction to the Randall-Sundrum action. We conclude by discussing the implications of these criteria for the question on whether entanglement islands in theories with massless gravitons are possible in Karch-Randall braneworlds.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2012

Fish Health Studies Associated with the Kingston Fly Ash Spill, Spring 2009 – Fall 2010

On December 22, 2008, over 4 million cubic meters of fly ash slurry was released into the Emory River when a dike surrounding a solid waste containment area at the Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Kingston Fossil Plant ruptured. One component of TVA's response to the spill is a biological monitoring program to assess short- and long-term ecological responses to the ash and associated chemicals, including studies on fish health and contaminant bioaccumulation. These studies were initiated in early Spring 2009 for the purposes of: (1) documenting the levels of fly ash-associated metals in various tissues of representative sentinel fish species in the area of the fly ash spill, (2) determining if exposure to fly ash-associated metals causes short, intermediate, or long-term health effects on these sentinel fish species, (3) assessing if there are causal relationships between exposure to metals and health effects on fish, (4) evaluating, along with information from other ecological and physicochemical studies, the nature and route of contaminant transfer though food chains into higher level consumers, (5) providing important information for the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) for the Kingston fly ash project, and (6) serving as an important technology information transfer or model study focused on how to best evaluate the environmental effects of fly ash (and related environmental stressors), not only at the Kingston site, but also at sites on other aquatic systems where coal-fired generating stations are located. This report presents the results of the first two years of the fish health study. To date, fish health and bioaccumulation studies have been conducted from Spring 2009 though Fall 2011 and includes 6 seasonal studies: Spring 2009, Fall 2009, Spring 2010, Fall 2010, Spring 2011, and Fall 2011. Both the Spring and Fall studies have focused on 3-4 sentinel fish species that represent different feeding habits, behaviors, and home ranges. In addition to fish health and bioaccumulation, the Spring investigations also included reproductive integrity studies on the same fish used for bioaccumulation and fish health. In this report, results of the fish health studies from Spring 2009 through Fall 2010 are presented while an associated report will present the fish reproductive studies conducted during Spring 2009 and Spring 2010. A report on fish bioaccumulation was submitted to TVA in June 2011. The fish health study conducted in conjunction with the bioaccumulation and reproductive study is critical for assessing and evaluating possible causal relationships between contaminant exposure (bioaccumulation) and the response of fish to exposure as reflected by the various measurements of fish health.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗