Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Achieving Realistic Runoff in the Western United States with a Land Surface Model Forced by Dynamically Downscaled Meteorology

Abstract In this study, we calibrate a regional climate model’s (RCM) underlying land surface model (LSM). In addition to providing a realistic representation of runoff across the hydroclimatically diverse western United States, this is done to take advantage of the RCM’s ability to physically resolve meteorological forcing data in ungauged regions, and to prepare the calibrated hydrologic model for tight coupling, or the ability to represent land surface–atmosphere interactions, with the RCM. Specifically, we use a 9-km resolution meteorological forcing dataset across the western United States, from the fifth generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) downscaled by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, as an offline forcing for Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP). We detail the steps involved in producing an LSM capable of accurately representing runoff, including physical parameterization selection, parameter calibration, and regionalization to ungauged basins. Based on our model evaluation from 1954 to 2021 for 586 basins with daily natural streamflow, the streamflow bias is reduced from 24.2% to 4.4%, and the median daily Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is improved from 0.12 to 0.36. When validating against basins with monthly natural streamflow data, we obtain a similar reduction in bias and a median monthly NSE improvement from 0.18 to 0.56. In this study, we also discover the optimal setup when using a donor-basin method to regionalize parameters to ungauged basins, which can vary by 0.06 NSE for unique designs of this regionalization method. Significance Statement This study provides useful guidance for improving a land surface model to accurately represent runoff across a spatially extensive and hydroclimatically diverse region (the western United States). The land surface model is updated to represent runoff more accurately at gauged basins, and then additionally updated for basins without observational data using a mathematical approach called the donor-basin method. We make use of a regional climate model’s reanalysis-derived meteorological data and its underlying land surface model to achieve realistic runoff. The calibrated land surface model can thus be tightly coupled in subsequent studies in a manner that should more accurately reflect runoff conditions. Findings from this study will serve as a useful reference for the atmospheric (and hydrologic) modeling communities and their ability to represent large-scale hydrology accurately.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2012

Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: Analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)

We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1) to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here) caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO 2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Selecting Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessments

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team has developed a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. An important goal of the GMI is to test modules for numerical transport, photochemical integration, and model dynamics within a common framework. This work is focussed on the dependence of the overall assessment on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere were available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS-2'). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to evaluate which of these three data sets provided the best representation of trace gases in the stratosphere today. Tracer experiments were devised to test various aspects of model transport. Stratospheric measurements of long-lived trace gases were selected as a test of the CTM transport. This presentation describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields and the resulting choice of wind fields to be used in the GMI assessment. This type of objective model evaluation will lead to a higher level of confidence in these assessments. We suggest that the diagnostic tests shown here be used to augment traditional general circulation model evaluation methods.

Strahan, Susan↗
NASA NTRS1998

Choosing Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessment of High Speed Aircraft

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team is developing a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to be used in assessment of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Requirements are that this model be documented, be validated against observations, use a realistic atmospheric circulation, and contain numerical transport and photochemical modules representing atmospheric processes. The model must also retain computational efficiency to be tractable to use for multiple scenarios and sensitivity studies. To meet these requirements, a facility model concept was developed in which the different components of the CTM are evaluated separately. The first use of the GMI model will be to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. The assessment calculations will depend strongly on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere are available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to identify the data set which provides the best representation of the stratosphere. Simulations of gases with simple chemical control were chosen to test various aspects of model transport. The three meteorological data sets were evaluated and graded based on their ability to simulate these aspects of stratospheric measurements. This paper describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields. The meteorological data set which has the highest score and therefore was selected for GMI is CCM2. This type of objective model evaluation establishes a physical basis for interpretation of differences between models and observations. Further, the method provides a quantitative basis for defining model errors, for discriminating between different models, and for ready re-evaluation of improved models. These in turn will lead to a higher level of confidence in assessment calculations.

Douglas, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Choosing Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessment of High Speed Aircraft

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team is developing a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to be used in assessment of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Requirements are that this model be documented be validated against observations, use a realistic atmospheric circulation, and contain numerical transport and photochemical modules representing atmospheric processes. The model must also retain computational efficiency to be tractable to use for multiple scenarios and sensitivity studies. To meet these requirements, a facility model concept was developed in which the different components of the CTM are evaluated separately. The first use of the GMI model will be to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. The assessment calculations will depend strongly on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere are available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to identify the data set which provides the best representation of the stratosphere. Simulations of gases with simple chemical control were chosen to test various aspects of model transport. The three meteorological data sets were evaluated and graded based on their ability to simulate these aspects of stratospheric measurements. This paper describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields. The meteorological data set which has the highest score and therefore was selected for GMI is CCM2. This type of objective model evaluation establishes a physical basis for interpretation of differences between models and observations. Further, the method provides a quantitative basis for defining model errors, for discriminating between different models, and for ready re-evaluation of improved models. These in turn will lead to a higher level of confidence in assessment calculations.

Douglass, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Model test of CCN-cloud albedo climate forcing

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) influence cloud albedo through their effect on the cloud droplet size distribution. A number of studies have evaluated the climatic impact of the CCN-cloud albedo feedback, but all have assumed that cloud distributions, cloud thicknesses, and cloud liquid water contents would remain constant as the climate adjusted. This assumption has been tested using the Livermore version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model. The results indicate that there are no significant compensating changes in cloud properties that would counteract the 1.7 percent global albedo increase resulting from a fourfold increase in marine CCN concentration. Furthermore, when ocean surface temperatures are decreased 4 C in a manner broadly consistent with the enhanced cloud albedos, an increase in cloud fraction of 3.5 percent and a reduction in cloud altitude are predicted, leading to a positive feedback from clouds that would imply a climate impact roughly double that calculated from cloud droplet size distribution change alone.

Ghan, S. J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating Real Atmospheric Boundary Layers at Gray-Zone Resolutions: How Do Currently Available Turbulence Parameterizations Perform?

Recent computational and modeling advances have led a diverse modeling community to experiment with atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) simulations at subkilometer horizontal scales. Accurately parameterizing turbulence at these scales is a complex problem. The modeling solutions proposed to date are still in the development phase and remain largely unvalidated. This work assesses the performance of methods currently available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to represent ABL turbulence at a gray-zone grid spacing of 333 m. We consider three one-dimensional boundary layer parameterizations (MYNN, YSU and Shin-Hong) and coarse large-eddy simulations (LES). The reference dataset consists of five real-case simulations performed with WRF-LES nested down to 25 m. Results reveal that users should refrain from coarse LES and favor the scale-aware, Shin-Hong parameterization over traditional one-dimensional schemes. Overall, the spread in model performance is large for the cellular convection regime corresponding to the majority of our cases, with coarse LES overestimating turbulent energy across scales and YSU underestimating it and failing to reproduce its horizontal structure. Despite yielding the best results, the Shin-Hong scheme overestimates the effect of grid dependence on turbulent transport, highlighting the outstanding need for improved solutions to seamlessly parameterize turbulence across scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving collaborations between empiricists and modelers to advance grassland community dynamics in ecosystem models

Climate change, increasing atmospheric CO 2 , and land use change have altered biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles world-wide, with grassland systems being particularly vulnerable to resulting vegetation shifts (Komatsu et al., 2019). Therefore, incorporating plant community dynamics into ecosystem models is critical for accurate forecasting of ecosystem responses to global change (Levine, 2016). Process-based ecosystem models, which simulate the biogeochemical transfers of mass and energy among biota, the subsurface, and atmosphere, require representation of dynamic composition of organisms within ecosystems. For example, these models simulate leaf and plant-level characteristics, such as electron transport rate and allometry of carbon (C) allocation, to predict how net primary productivity and other ecosystem processes respond to abiotic drivers. These models are particularly useful in scaling from organismal to ecosystem levels but are still underdeveloped in their ability to capture community change, especially in grassland ecosystems. To represent compositional changes, these models must simulate competition, mortality, establishment, and reproduction of plant populations within communities. Yet, current ecosystem modeling approaches to forecast plant community change have derived from studies of forested systems and are either too coarse to capture fine-scale community dynamics (e.g. dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)) or too complex to be used at large spatial scales (e.g. forest gap models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring.

Saltzman, Barry↗
NASA NTRS2000

Sensitivity of Age-of-Air Calculations to the Choice of Advection Scheme

The age of air has recently emerged as a diagnostic of atmospheric transport unaffected by chemical parameterizations, and the features in the age distributions computed in models have been interpreted in terms of the models' large-scale circulation field. This study shows, however, that in addition to the simulated large-scale circulation, three-dimensional age calculations can also be affected by the choice of advection scheme employed in solving the tracer continuity equation, Specifically, using the 3.0deg latitude X 3.6deg longitude and 40 vertical level version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI GCM and six online transport schemes ranging from Eulerian through semi-Lagrangian to fully Lagrangian, it will be demonstrated that the oldest ages are obtained using the nondiffusive centered-difference schemes while the youngest ages are computed with a semi-Lagrangian transport (SLT) scheme. The centered- difference schemes are capable of producing ages older than 10 years in the mesosphere, thus eliminating the "young bias" found in previous age-of-air calculations. At this stage, only limited intuitive explanations can be advanced for this sensitivity of age-of-air calculations to the choice of advection scheme, In particular, age distributions computed online with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (MACCM3) using different varieties of the SLT scheme are substantially older than the SKYHI SLT distribution. The different varieties, including a noninterpolating-in-the-vertical version (which is essentially centered-difference in the vertical), also produce a narrower range of age distributions than the suite of advection schemes employed in the SKYHI model. While additional MACCM3 experiments with a wider range of schemes would be necessary to provide more definitive insights, the older and less variable MACCM3 age distributions can plausibly be interpreted as being due to the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian dynamics employed in the MACCM3. This type of dynamical core (employed with a 60-min time step) is likely to reduce SLT's interpolation errors that are compounded by the short-term variability characteristic of the explicit centered-difference dynamics employed in the SKYHI model (time step of 3 min). In the extreme case of a very slowly varying circulation, the choice of advection scheme has no effect on two-dimensional (latitude-height) age-of-air calculations, owing to the smooth nature of the transport circulation in 2D models. These results suggest that nondiffusive schemes may be the preferred choice for multiyear simulations of tracers not overly sensitive to the requirement of monotonicity (this category includes many greenhouse gases). At the same time, age-of-air calculations offer a simple quantitative diagnostic of a scheme's long-term diffusive properties and may help in the evaluation of dynamical cores in multiyear integrations. On the other hand, the sensitivity of the computed ages to the model numerics calls for caution in using age of air as a diagnostic of a GCM's large-scale circulation field.

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz↗
NASA NTRS1995

A numerical model of nonmigrating diurnal tides between the surface and 65 km

Observations of surface pressure and middle atmosphere temperatures and winds indicate that a substantial nonmigrating component is present in the diurnal tide. The nonmigrating tides, which propagate with a zonal phase speed that is different from the earth's rotation, are attributed to the diurnal heating of geographically fixed sources. In this study we utilize a classical tidal model to examine the propagation characteristics of diurnal tides. The global fields of tropospheric sensible, radiative, and latent heating used to drive the model are supplied from summer and winter diurnal climatologies of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM2). A novel aspect of this study is the focus on the relative importance of the nonmigrating components. The classical model successfully reproduces many observed features of the low-latitude diurnal surface pressure tides. In the middle atmosphere, the simulated migrating (or sun-synchronous) tide shows qualitative agreement with November-March Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) observations. Tropospheric solar heating is clearly the dominant driving force for the migrating tide, with secondary contributions from boundary-layer sensible heating and tropospheric latent heat release. The leading modes of the zonal mean tide are also driven chiefly by tropospheric solar heating. The higher-order modes of the zonal mean and eastward propagating tides may be attributed to the joint effects of tropospheric solar heating, sensible heating, and latent heat release. The LIMS and other data reveal features that cannot be explained or examined within the context of the classical model used in the present study. These include upward phase propagation, vertical attenuation, and temporal variations in the migrating diurnal tide.

Lieberman, Ruth S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Mesoscale to microscale wind farm flow modeling and evaluation

The increasing size of wind turbines, with rotors already spanning more than 150 m diameter and hub heights above 100 m, requires proper modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) from the surface to the free atmosphere. Furthermore, large wind farm arrays create their own boundary layer structure with unique physics. This poses significant challenges to traditional wind engineering models that rely on surface-layer theories and engineering wind farm models to simulate the flow in and around wind farms. However, adopting an ABL approach offers the opportunity to better integrate wind farm design tools and meteorological models. The challenge is how to build the bridge between atmospheric and wind engineering model communities and how to establish a comprehensive evaluation process that identifies relevant physical phenomena for wind energy applications with modeling and experimental requirements. A framework for model verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification is established to guide this process by a systematic evaluation of the modeling system at increasing levels of complexity. In terms of atmospheric physics, ‘building the bridge’ means developing models for the so-called ‘terra incognita,’ a term used to designate the turbulent scales that transition from mesoscale to microscale. This range of scales within atmospheric research deals with the transition from parameterized to resolved turbulence and the improvement of surface boundary-layer parameterizations. The coupling of meteorological and wind engineering flow models and the definition of a formal model evaluation methodology, is a strong area of research for the next generation of wind conditions assessment and wind farm and wind turbine design tools. Some fundamental challenges are identified in order to direct future research in this area.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Estimating future global per capita water availability based on changes in climate and population

Human populations are profoundly affected by water stress, or the lack of sufficient per capita available freshwater. Water stress can result from overuse of available freshwater resources or from a reduction in the amount of available water due to decreases in rainfall and stored water supplies. Analyzing the interrelationship between human populations and water availability is complicated by the uncertainties associated with climate change projections and population projections. We present a simple methodology developed to integrate disparate climate and population data sources and develop first-order per capita water availability projections at the global scale. Simulations from the coupled land-ocean-atmosphere Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) forced with a range of hypothetical greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are used to project grid-based changes in precipitation minus evapotranspiration as proxies for changes in runoff, or fresh water supply. Population growth changes according to several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) storylines are used as proxies for changes in fresh water demand by 2025, 2050 and 2100. These freshwater supply and demand projections are then combined to yield estimates of per capita water availability aggregated by watershed and political unit. Results suggest that important insights might be extracted from the use of the process developed here, notably including the identification of the globe s most vulnerable regions in need of more detailed analysis and the relative importance of population growth versus climate change in in altering future freshwater supplies. However, these are only exemplary insights and, as such, could be considered hypotheses that should be rigorously tested with multiple climate models, multiple observational climate datasets, and more comprehensive population change storylines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Transport of Passive Tracers in Baroclinic Wave Life Cycles

The transport of passive tracers in idealized baroclinic wave life cycles is studied using output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2). Two life cycles, LCn and LCs, are simulated, starting with baroclinically unstable initial conditions similar to those used by Thorncroft et al. in their study of two life cycle paradigms. The two life cycles LCn and LCs have different initial horizontal wind shear structures that result in distinctive nonlinear development. In terms of potential vorticity-potential temperature (PV-theta) diagnostics, the LCn case is characterized by thinning troughs that are advected anti-cyclonically and equatorward, while the LCs case has broadening troughs that wrap up cyclonically and poleward. Four idealized passive tracers are included in the model to be advected by the semi-Lagrangian transport scheme of the CCM2, and their evolutions are investigated throughout the life cycles. Tracer budgets are analyzed in terms of the transformed Eulerian mean constituent transport formalism in pressure coordinates and also in isentropic coordinates. Results for both LCn and LCs show transport that is downgradient with respect to the background structure of the tracer field, but with a characteristic spatial structure that maximizes in the middle to high latitudes. For the idealized tropospheric tracers in this study, this represents a net upward and poleward transport that enhances concentrations at high latitudes. These results vary little with the initial distribution of the constituent field. The time tendency of the tracer is influenced most strongly by the eddy flux term. with the largest transport occurring during the nonlinear growth stage of the life cycle. The authors also study the transport of a lower-stratospheric tracer, to examine stratosphere-troposphere exchange for baroclinic waves.

Stone, Elizabeth M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Towards a Comprehensive Dynamic-chemistry Assimilation for Eos-Chem: Plans and Status in NASA's Data Assimilation Office

In order to support the EOS-Chem project, a comprehensive assimilation package for the coupled chemical-dynamical system is being developed by the Data Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC. This involves development of a coupled chemistry/meteorology model and of data assimilation techniques for trace species and meteorology. The model is being developed using the flux-form semi-Lagrangian dynamical core of Lin and Rood, the physical parameterizations from the NCAR Community Climate Model, and atmospheric chemistry modules from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics branch at NASA GSFC. To date the following results have been obtained: (i) multi-annual simulations with the dynamics-radiation model show the credibility of the package for atmospheric simulations; (ii) initial simulations including a limited number of middle atmospheric trace gases reveal the realistic nature of transport mechanisms, although there is still a need for some improvements. Samples of these results will be shown. A meteorological assimilation system is currently being constructed using the model; this will form the basis for the proposed meteorological/chemical assimilation package. The latter part of the presentation will focus on areas targeted for development in the near and far terms, with the objective of Providing a comprehensive assimilation package for the EOS-Chem science experiment. The first stage will target ozone assimilation. The plans also encompass a reanalysis (ReSTS) for the 1991-1995 period, which includes the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the time when a large number of UARS observations were available. One of the most challenging aspects of future developments will be to couple theoretical advances in tracer assimilation with the practical considerations of a real environment and eventually a near-real-time assimilation system.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2022

Simulations of Firn Processes Over the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: 1980-2021

Conversion of altimetry-derived ice-sheet volume change to mass requires an understanding of the evolution of the combined ice and air content within the firn column. In the absence of suitable techniques to observe the changes to the firn column across the entirety of an ice sheet, the firn column processes are typically modeled. Here, we present new simulations of firn processes over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) using the Community Firn Model and atmospheric reanalysis variables for more than four decades. A data set of more than 250 measured depth–density profiles from both ice sheets provides the basis of the calibration of the dry-snow densification scheme. The resulting scheme results in a reduction in the rate of densification, relative to a commonly used semi-empirical model, through a decreased dependence on the accumulation rate, a proxy for overburden stress. The 1980–2020 modeled firn column runoff, when combined with atmospheric variables from MERRA-2, generates realistic mean integrated surface mass balance values for the Greenland (+390 Gt yr(exp −1)) and Antarctic (+2612 Gt yr(exp −1)) ice sheets when compared to published model-ensemble means. We find that seasonal volume changes associated with firn air content are on average approximately 2.5 times larger than those associated with mass fluxes from surface processes for the AIS and 1.5 times larger for the GrIS; however, when averaged over multiple years, ice and air-volume fluctuations within the firn column are of comparable magnitudes. Between 1996 and 2019, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost nearly 5% of its firn air content, indicating a reduction in the total meltwater retention capability. Nearly all (94 %) of the meltwater produced over the Antarctic Ice Sheet is retained within the firn column through infiltration and refreezing.

Greenland↗
DOE OSTI2012

Projecting Continental U.S. Water Stress Based on Global Datasets

Human populations may be adversely impacted by water stress, a situation which is commonly defined as a per capita water availability of less than 1700 cubic meters of freshwater per person per year. Water stress may result from either overuse of available freshwater resources or a reduction in the amount of available water due to decreases in rainfall and stored water supplies. Analyzing the interrelationship between human populations and water availability is complicated by the uncertainties associated with climate change projections and population projections. We have developed a simple methodology to integrate disparate climate and population data sources and develop first-order per capita water availability projections at the global scale. Simulations from the coupled land-ocean-atmosphere Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) forced with a range of hypothetical greenhouse gas emissions scenarios have been used to project grid-based changes in precipitation minus evapotranspiration as proxies for changes in runoff, or fresh water supply. Population growth changes, according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) storylines, have been used as proxies for changes in fresh water demand by 2025, 2050 and 2100. These freshwater supply and demand projections have then been combined to yield estimates of per capita water availability aggregated by U.S. watershed. Results suggest that important insights might be extracted from the use of the process developed here, including the identification of potentially vulnerable areas in need of more detailed analysis. This high-level analysis also illustrates the relative importance of population growth versus climate change in in altering future freshwater supplies. However, these are only exemplary insights and, as such, could be considered hypotheses that should be rigorously tested with multiple climate models, multiple observational climate datasets, and more comprehensive population growth projections.

climate change impacts↗