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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene

Archaeological records document a significant expansion of populations from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~23–19 ka) to the early Holocene (EH, ~9 ka) in Eurasia, which is often attributed to the influence of orbital-scale climate changes. Yet, information remains limited concerning the climatic factor(s) which were responsible for conditioning demographic patterns. Here, in this work, we present results from an improved Minimalist Terrestrial Resource Model (MTRM), forced by a transient climate simulation from the LGM to the EH. Simulated potential hunter-gatherer population densities and spatial distributions across Eurasia are supported by observed archaeological sites in Europe and China. In the low latitudes, potential population size change was predominantly controlled by precipitation and its strong influence on plant and animal resources. In the middle-high latitudes, temperature was the dominant driver in influencing potential population size change and animal resource availability. Different regional responses of potential populations to climate change across Eurasia - owing to variations in available food resources between the LGM and EH - provide a better understanding of human dispersal during the Late Pleistocene.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geological study of an outburst flood event in the upper Yangtze River and risk of similar extreme events

Here, outburst flood sediments are studied on the upper course of the Yangtze River (known as the Jinsha River) where is a key region for the development of hydroelectric power. As the history and magnitude of outburst flooding in this stretch of the Jinsha River during historic times has remained largely undocumented, we have endeavored as part of this study to conduct field investigations into, and provide numerical dating (using OSL and 14 C dating techniques) of outburst flood evidence found in the First Bend area of the Yangtze River. Carbonized nutshells and charcoal from the ancient settlement yielded 14 C ages that precisely pinpointed an outburst flood event ~1200–1300 cal yr BP, during China's Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE). However, OSL ages using the minimum age model for all outburst flood samples ranged from 9.1 to 1.8 ka, which was ~0.5–7.8 ka older than the 14 C-dated outburst flood. This discrepancy suggests a potential overestimation of quartz age when dating outburst flood sediments from the Holocene period. Furthermore, using 2D hydraulic modeling, we estimated the magnitude of the aforementioned outburst flood, revealing a reconstructed peak flow discharge of 51,000–55,300 m 3 /s. This discharge was three times greater than the 10,000-year flood for the hydroelectric power station nearest to the study area. Our study underscores the significant role of combining archaeological and geological evidence in enhancing paleoflood hydrology research. Through a multidisciplinary approach, our findings emphasize the importance of paleoflood hydrology studies in comprehending both the latent and catastrophic flood risks in alpine mountain areas amid the context of global warming.

14C dating↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rolling Optimization of Transmission Network Recovery and Load Restoration Considering Hybrid Wind-Storage System and Cold Load Pickup

A common solution to deal with the stochasticity introduced by fast-ramping wind power integration is to equip wind farms (WFs) with energy storage systems (ESSs) to formulate hybrid WF-ESSs. In addition to leveling off wind power fluctuations during normal operations, a hybrid WF-ESS can be a flexible power source to accumulate the power system restoration. In this paper, we propose a rolling optimization model for transmission network recovery and load restoration considering the contributions of WF-ESSs. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem that simultaneously optimizes the amount and location of restorable load blocks as well as the restoration lines. The cold load pickup features of interrupted loads considering the outage duration are modeled in detail. A chance-constrained method is employed to deal with the uncertainty of wind power, and a rolling horizon-based framework is adopted to reduce the influence of forecast error. Case studies are conducted on both New England 39-bus system and part of a provincial power system in China. The results show that the load restoration process can be significantly accelerated by employing the proposed method and contributions of hybrid WF-ESSs to power system restoration are validated.

chance-constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations with sales adjustment factors

Larger vehicles, such as sports utility vehicles, consume more energy than cars. Their increasing popularity runs contrary to the goal of fuel economy regulations to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and can be explained by consumer preference and lower regulation stringency, which is due to footprint, truck classification, and the omission of heterogenous lifetime vehicle distance traveled among vehicle classes. This study shows that, for both the US and China, large vehicles travel more, last longer, and are owned by higher income consumers. This means large vehicles and their high-income owners use more fuel and emit more pollutants than represented by current policy and thus raises both policy effectiveness and energy equity concerns. We propose and estimate Sales Adjustment Factors that weigh fuel economy standards based on vehicle lifetime usage and demonstrate the resultant significant improvements in the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of water–energy nexus and trends in support of the sustainable development goals: A study using longitudinal water–energy use data

Water and energy are two critical natural resources necessary for human activities and socioeconomic development. Water and energy systems are highly interdependent, and water efficiency and energy efficiency are two related indicators for the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. It is critical to improve energy–water use efficiency to sustain socioeconomic development while reducing adverse effects on natural resources, society and the environment. By using longitudinal energy–water use data for China over the past 21 years, this paper develops a temporo-spatial study to address key issues and introduce analytical approaches needed to understand the water–energy nexus and support integrated resource planning and management to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Decomposition analysis indicates that the production effect was the dominating factor contributing the increase in the country's energy–water use, while energy–water efficiency is the major factor slowing the growth of the country's energy–water use. Changes and trends analyses show that the country's energy intensity, water intensity, and water/energy ratio significantly decreased from 1999 to 2019, but the rate of decline has slowed. The disparities of the country's provincial energy intensities, water intensities, and water/energy ratios significantly decreased with economic growth. Results suggest that improving energy–water efficiency is critical for the country to curb increasing energy and water use and achieve resource and environmental protection targets with rapid economic development. Furthermore, the disparities between regional energy-water efficiencies can be reduced along with economic growth, while an overheated economy can widen the disparities and result in unsustainable and inefficient utilization of resources. Government coordination, targets and policy as part of the efficiency governance system are critical for continuous energy–water efficiency improvement and directly influence the implementation and effectiveness of energy–water efficiency policy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plastispheres as hotspots of microbially-driven methylmercury production in paddy soils

Microplastics (MPs) as emerging contaminants have accumulated extensively in agricultural ecosystems and are known to exert important effects on biogeochemical processes. However, how MPs in paddy soils influence the conversion of mercury (Hg) to neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg) remains poorly understood. Here, in this study, we evaluated the effects of MPs on Hg methylation and associated microbial communities in microcosms using two typical paddy soils in China (i.e., yellow and red soils). Results showed that the addition of MPs significantly increased MeHg production in both soils, which could be related to higher Hg methylation potential in the plastisphere than in the bulk soil. We found significant divergences in the community composition of Hg methylators between the plastisphere and the bulk soil. In addition, the plastisphere had higher proportions of Geobacterales in the yellow soil and Methanomicrobia in the red soil compared with the bulk soil, respectively; and plastisphere also had more densely connected microbial groups between non-Hg methylators and Hg methylators. These microbiota in the plastisphere are different from those in the bulk soil, which could partially account for their distinct MeHg production ability. Our findings suggest plastisphere as a unique biotope for MeHg production and provide new insights into the environment risks of MP accumulation in agricultural soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological analysis in watersheds with a variable-resolution global climate model (VR-CESM)

Traditionally, watershed-scale hydrology is simulated by distributed hydrological models with offline meteorological forcing data, or by regional regional climate models that link atmospheric and land hydrology interactions. Global climate models (GCMs) are rarely used to study watershed-scale hydrology due to the relatively coarse grid resolution, computationally expensive downscaling, and simplified physical processes. Recently, however, watershed-scale hydrology analysis has become possible in GCMs due to the development of variable-resolution GCMs that dynamically couple the hydrological processes between atmosphere and land systems at fine resolutions in selected regions and coarse resolution elsewhere. In this study, we used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China to evaluate watershed-scale hydrology. Furthermore, we compared the historical VR-CESM outputs with gauge measurements and other hydrological models (e.g., National Water Model in the U.S.) and calibrated the subsurface runoff capacities in four mountainous watersheds. An RCP8.5 projection from 2007 to 2050 is used to estimate the impact of changing precipitation and snow climatology on watershed hydrology. We also analyzed the long-term runoff variability and the possibility of extreme runoff events as simulated by the VR-CESM. Although calibration is not possible in larger-scale watersheds, VR-CESM simulates the long-term annual variability of watersheds and provides insights on climate change impacts on hydrology. We conclude that refined-resolution VR-CESM can be used for watershed-scale hydrology analysis to understand water resources and water balance, in addition to traditional watershed-scale hydrological models. It enables hydrological analysis at multiple watersheds in one simulation and can help understand the two-way dynamics between land surface hydrology and atmospheric processes, and is especially practical for projecting climate change impacts. However, it is challenging to apply VR-CESM for hydrologic analysis in regulated watersheds as human factors (e.g., pumping, irrigation, water diversion) have not been fully addressed in VR-CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracking snowmelt during hydrological surface processes using a distributed hydrological model in a mesoscale basin on the Tibetan Plateau

We report that mountain snowpack is an important water resource for the high altitude and latitude regions where the terrain is complex. However, the snowmelt pathway and its actual contribution to streamflow and soil moisture are rarely reported and remain unclear in such regions. To fill in this knowledge gap, we incorporate a snowmelt pathway tracking algorithm to a high-resolution physics-based distributed-hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM), to track snowmelt movement and quantify snowmelt contributions in the surface hydrologic processes. A simple reservoir operation scheme is also incorporated in the model. The modified model is applied to a dammed meso-scale watershed in the northeast Tibetan Plateau, China to study the snow and reservoir effects. The results show that annual snow contribution to soil moisture (SC-SM) and snow contribution to streamflow (SC-S) significantly decrease over 1965-2019. At a monthly scale, SC-SM has the largest amplitude at the top soil layer and its peak in the deeper layer lags behind the upper layer, and mean monthly SC-S at all stations show bimodal distributions corresponding to snowfall season. Reservoir regulation has subtle impacts (≤2.0%) on SC-S. If the current climate change rate continues, monthly and annual streamflow at the outlet will decrease primarily due to snowpack reduction. To mitigate climate change impacts, better water resource management is needed in this watershed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Editorial for Multiscale & Multifield Coupling in Geomechanics

We are delighted to serve as guest editors for this special issue in the Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering. The purpose of this special issue is dedicated to gathering the latest research work on Multiscale & Multifield Coupling in Geomechanics, where we delve into the intricate interplay of various fields and scales that govern the behavior of geomaterials. In total, 30 manuscripts from USA, China, UK, Germany, Canada, India and United Arab Emirates are selected to be included in this issue.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

First benchmarked electron cooling simulations from first principles

We present the first microscopic electron cooling simulations from first principles with accurate prediction of cooling time. These simulations were performed using our previously developed numerical method, PHAD, which is the first efficient large-scale collisional numerical method in beam physics. The simulation results are benchmarked with the experimental data of the low energy bunched electron cooling of ion beams at the storage ring CSRm at the IMP facility in China. Here, we have accurately considered the nonlinear dynamics in the whole accelerator system in addition to the electron cooling section. As a result, our simulations correctly reproduced cooling times of the experiments from first principles and without any tuning or fitting parameters in the code.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A NEA review on innovative structural materials solutions, including advanced manufacturing processes for nuclear applications based on technology readiness assessment

The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Expert Group on Innovative Structural Materials (EGISM) was established in 2008 under the guidance of the Nuclear Science Committee (NSC). Its objectives are to conduct joint and comparative studies to support the development, selection and characterisation of innovative structural materials that can be implemented in advanced nuclear fuel cycles, under long service lifetime and extreme conditions, such as high temperature, high dose/dose rate and corrosive chemical environments. In this context of growing interest and initiatives, the EGISM initiated at the beginning of 2018 an activity among its members to: Identify, in a non-exhaustive way, the currently existing programs on innovative materials and fabrication processes in NEA member countries and China; Establish a first cartography of the activities that are underway on these topics and identify common subjects and thematic; Propose a Technology Readiness Level scale to estimate the maturity of both innovative materials and fabrication processes; Carry out a reflection on what the enablers are to quickly climb this TRL scale, as well as the obstacles, in order to identify solutions to overcome them. This paper first gives definitions shared between the EGISM members on what are considered as advanced structural materials solutions. Next, some international initiatives for the accelerated development of high performance materials are presented both in non-nuclear and nuclear fields. Then, the methodology adopted for technology readiness assessment is explained. A non-exhaustive synthesis of the projects identified among the EGISM members on innovative structural materials and advanced manufacturing solutions such as additive manufacturing is presented. The TRL level of these projects is evaluated. A focus is also made on some of these projects to illustrate and explain the TRLs chosen as well as highlighting enablers or obstacles identified to climbing up the TRL scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A high accuracy/resolution spectral element/Fourier–Galerkin method for the simulation of shoaling non-linear internal waves and turbulence in long domains with variable bathymetry

A high-order hybrid continuous-Galerkin numerical method, designed for the simulation of non-linear, non -hydrostatic internal waves and turbulence in long computational domains with complex bathymetry, is presented. The spatial discretization in the non-periodic wave-propagating directions, utilizes the nodal spectral element method. Such a high-order element-based discretization allows the highly accurate representation of complex domain geometry along with the flexibility of concentrating resolution in areas of interest. Under the assumption of the normal-to-isobath propagation of non-linear internal waves, a third periodic direction is incorporated via a Fourier-Galerkin discretization. The distinct non-hydrostatic nature of non-linear internal waves and, any instabilities and turbulence therein, necessitates the numerically challenging solution of the pressure Poisson problem. A defining feature of this work is the application of a domain decomposition approach, combined with block-Jacobi/deflation-based preconditioning to the pressure Poisson problem. Such a combined approach is particularly suitable for the long high aspect-ratio complex domains of interest and enables the efficient high-accuracy reproduction of the non-hydrostatic dynamics of non-linear internal waves. Implementation details are also described in the context of the stability of the solver and its parallelization strategy. A series of benchmarks of increasing complexity demonstrate the robustness of the flow solver. The benchmarks culminate with the three-dimensional simulation of a convectively breaking mode-one non-linear internal wave over a realistic South-China-Sea bathymetric transect and background current/stratification profiles.

Deflation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermodynamic and Kinetic Roles of H2 in Structure Evolution of Urchin-like Co: A density functional theory study

Small gas molecules working as good capping agents play important roles in controlling the morphologies and surface structures of the metal nanocrystals. In present work, the thermodynamic and kinetic roles of H2 molecule played on the morphology of Co nanocrystal were systematically studied based on density functional theory (DFT). The Gibbs surface free energies (?) of Co(100), Co(110) and Co(111) under different hydrogen surface coverages were investigated by ab initio thermodynamics, based on which i) the phase diagrams of stable H coverage on each plane were obtained; ii) the morphology evolutions of the Co nanocrystals with various surface hydrogen coverages were further predicted by Wulff construction. It was revealed that addition of H2 could change the facet stability generating diverse morphological Co nucleus. The kinetic role of H2 was further explored by DFT during adatom Co surface diffusions under different H coverages (?H), which suggested that except for Co(100) at ?H of 0.56 ML, the surface H would hinder Co surface diffusions. The projected density of state (PDOS) gave a deeper insight that the electronic structures of the Co adatom could be alerted by addition of the surface H, which thereby affected its surface diffusion ability. X. Wang, N. Liu, Q. Zhang, X. Liang, and B. Chen were financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 21476012, 21571012, and 91534201). D. Mei was supported by the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences & Biosciences. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is a multiprogram national laboratory operated for DOE by Battelle. Computing time was granted by the facility user proposal grand challenge of computational catalysis of the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL). EMSL is a national scientific user facility located at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and sponsored by DOE’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research.

Nanocrystal Co, Surface free energy, Surface diffu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential impacts of Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge on nutrient supply and greenhouse gas emissions of food systems

Seafood plays a critical role in promoting a nutritious and climate-friendly food system but faces challenges from marine contamination that pose food safety risks. Here, to address these challenges, we developed a Marine Pollution-induced Food System Risk Assessment and Response (MP-FSRAR) model to assess the impact of consumer perceptions of marine pollution risk events on nutrient supply and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Applying this model to the proposed Fukushima Nuclear Wastewater Discharge (FNWD) into the Pacific Ocean, we identified the potential variation in nutrient supply and GHG emissions resulting from changes in Chinese consumers' willingness to consume seafood under 12 scenarios. Our analysis revealed nutrient supply gaps in daily protein, minerals, vitamins, and fatty acids, ranging from 1.5 to 2.7 g/person, 2.5–4.5 mg/person, 5.6–10.3 mcg/person, and 0.08–0.14 g/person, respectively. Closing the protein gap in China would require an additional 3.2–15.8 billion kg yr -1 protein-rich foods, including aquatic, livestock, dairy, and pulses. Additional food supply would increase extra GHG emissions by 1–79 billion kg CO 2 e yr -1 , resulting in potential GHG emissions being transmitted to other countries through the trade chain. Furthermore, we found that the livestock-based food substitution pathway had 40 times higher GHG emissions than the plant-based one. Our MP-FSRAR model provides global stakeholders with new perspectives on the potential consequences of consumer perceptions of marine pollution risks and offers valuable insights for developing countermeasures to build a more resilient and low-carbon food system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing supply resilience for critical materials: case study of gallium supply in the United States

Accelerating energy technology development will increase demand for critical raw materials, such as gallium, that enable clean energy technologies. Processing of gallium is concentrated in mainland China (98 % of global production in 2023), resulting in high supply risks for importing countries. To investigate pathways for more resilient supply, we develop a material flow analysis and apply it to the United States, showing the impacts of future domestic primary raw material production and end-of-life (EoL) product recycling on reducing import reliance of raw gallium metal. We complement this analysis with a techno-economic assessment of North American gallium production costs under various demand growth scenarios. Our results indicate that sufficient domestic feedstocks exist to meet U.S. demand under most scenarios by 2035, while EoL recycling can supply up to 50 % under a low-demand growth scenario. Domestic primary production shows significant cost advantages over gallium recycling.

Cost analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

How demand for and trade of construction materials affects greenhouse gas emissions

Construction materials generate nearly one-third of global carbon emissions, yet conventional accounting captures only a fraction of this impact. Using EXIOBASE data spanning 25 years, we tracked emissions across construction supply chains for cement, steel, metals, and plastics. While global construction demand nearly tripled, regional patterns diverged significantly. The EU reduced emissions despite increased demand through renewable energy adoption and emissions trading, while China's construction boom—driving most global growth—significantly increased domestic emissions. Manufacturing contributes most to embodied emissions compared to resource extraction and waste treatment. Increased reliance on offshore production undermines domestic emission control strategies, highlighting the need for expanded carbon border adjustment mechanisms. Without policies addressing full supply chain emissions, even aggressive climate initiatives will be compromised by carbon leakage, creating an emissions trajectory incompatible with global climate targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions analysis of battery-grade lithium production in Finland

Various countries are undertaking initiatives to domestically produce battery-related critical materials. Within Finland, Keliber Technology Oy is developing capabilities for battery-grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LHM) production from spodumene ores. A detailed life-cycle assessment (LCA) of this pathway is conducted to determine its life-cycle GHG impacts using Argonne's R&D GREET (Research and Development Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model. The analysis shows life-cycle GHG emissions of similar to 9.2 kg CO 2-eq /kg LHM, dominated by contributions from three energy sources - diesel, natural gas, and electricity - and two material inputs - lime (CaO) and soda ash (Na 2 CO 3 ). Sensitivity analyses highlight the potential to reduce these impacts using low-carbon electricity, sequestration of process CO 2 emissions generated during CaO and Na 2 CO 3 production, and bio-based energy for LHM production (by similar to 15 % each). A comparative analysis shows lower impacts for Keliber's LHM than for existing LHM production from Australian spodumene ores processed in China (by similar to 40 %).

CCS↗