Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Salmon Productivity Analysis, Brood Years 1975–2016
Updating the Hanford Reach fall Chinook salmon productivity analysis to include seven additional years of data (BY 2010–2016), including three years of record escapements (>150,000 adults), reaffirmed the highly productive nature of this population and the positive effect of flow fluctuation constraints as implemented at Priest Rapids Dam by the VBSA and HRFCPP. The addition of several years of high escapements also revealed that competition among juveniles (and not spawning habitat limitations) is likely the mechanism driving density dependence in the Hanford Reach. The addition of the high escapement brood years also provided evidence for the high recruitment capacity of the population. As such, the WDFW may consider increasing the maximum escapement goal from 42,000 adults to 49,000 adults, which would be more in-line with SMSY as estimated from this update. Given the in-river protections that are in place as part of the HRFCPP, ocean conditions appear to be the primary factor controlling adult production. Therefore, the success of any additional management actions taken in freshwater are likely to be dependent on survival in the ocean. As such, the most effective management actions may be those that limit juvenile competition and density dependent growth effects in the Hanford Reach. Limiting competition would be expected to increase growth, resulting in larger smolts that would be less likely to suffer size-dependent mortality in the marine environment, even during years of poor ocean conditions. Increasing terminal harvest rates when high escapements are anticipated (from downstream dam counts) is one management option that could help to curtail juvenile competition.