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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat Setbacks During Unoccupied Periods

This report assesses the potential for nationwide adoption of thermostat setbacks in appropriate applications. Building on the 3-year End-Use Load Profiles project to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models, this work produces national datasets that enable cities, states, utilities, and other stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses various data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The “baseline” model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology of the baseline model is discussed in the ComStock Reference Documentation. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility measures that cover market-ready technologies and study their mass-adoption impact on the baseline building stock. “Measures” refers to various “what-if” scenarios that can be applied to buildings. The results for the baseline and measure scenario simulations are published in public datasets that provide insights into building stock characteristics, operational behaviors, utility bill impacts, and annual and sub-hourly energy usage by fuel type and end use. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single ComStock measure scenario— Thermostat Setbacks During Unoccupied Periods—and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public dataset enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use cases (e.g., filter to a specific county or building type).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Steady state thermo-mechanics and material property definition framework for analyzing DCLL blanket in the fusion nuclear science facility

In this work, a thermo-mechanics model that relies on creating the material property definition framework (MPDF) and multiphysics coupling of the heat transfer and the solid mechanics modules is developed to determine the structural integrity of the recently designed dual cooled lead lithium (DCLL) inboard blanket (IB) for the Fusion Nuclear Science Facility under steady state loads. The MPDF is called to supply fusion relevant neutron irradiation and temperature induced changes in material properties during multiphysics finite element runs, and PbLi temperature profiles are used to approximate Magnetohydrodynamics effect and the nuclear volumetric heating on the PbLi. Neutron irradiation and temperature induced reduction of the yield and ultimate strengths of F82H steel at the first wall (FW) are quantified for one year. A blanket in an assembly with gaps between blanket sectors and another blanket in an assembly with no gaps between blanket sectors, both exposed to radiation damage that lasted for one year are analyzed. Analysis using the elastic ITER structural design criteria for in-vessel components (ITER SDC-IC) design rules and a linear isotropic-hardening-type elastoplastic material model are used where most appropriate. The IB blanket with gaps between blanket sectors will withstand the steady state combined thermal and coolant loads for one year operational period but will fail if no gaps are allowed between blanket sectors. It is recommended that a gap of about 7.62 mm should be provided between IB blanket sectors during assembly which would close up during service, stop neutron streaming, reduce stresses and reduce bending of the FW into the scrape-off layer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing the mobility and power-electronics figure of merit of AlGaN with atomically thin AlN/GaN digital-alloy superlattices

Alloy scattering in random AlGaN alloys drastically reduces the electron mobility and, therefore, the power-electronics figure of merit. As a result, Al compositions greater than 75% are required to obtain even a twofold increase in the Baliga figure of merit compared to GaN. However, beyond approximately 80% Al composition, donors in AlGaN undergo the DX transition, which makes impurity doping increasingly more difficult. Moreover, the contact resistance increases exponentially with the increase in Al content, and integration with dielectrics becomes difficult due to the upward shift of the conduction band. Atomically thin superlattices of AlN and GaN, also known as digital alloys, are known to grow experimentally under appropriate growth conditions. These chemically ordered nanostructures could offer significantly enhanced figure of merit compared to their random alloy counterparts due to the absence of alloy scattering, as well as better integration with contact metals and dielectrics. In this work, we investigate the electronic structure and phonon-limited electron mobility of atomically thin AlN/GaN digital-alloy superlattices using first-principles calculations based on density-functional and many-body perturbation theory. The bandgap of the atomically thin superlattices reaches 4.8 eV, and the in-plane (out-of-plane) mobility is 369 (452) cm 2 V -1 s -1 . Using the modified Baliga figure of merit that accounts for the dopant ionization energy, here we demonstrate that atomically thin AlN/GaN superlattices with a monolayer sublattice periodicity have the highest modified Baliga figure of merit among several technologically relevant ultra-wide bandgap materials, including random AlGaN, β-Ga 2 O 3 , cBN, and diamond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of negative triangularity shaping on energetic particle driven Alfvén eigenmodes in DIII-D

Shape variations from positive to negative triangularity may lead to improved performance regimes in a tokamak with a reduction in microturbulence as well as improved thermal confinement. The motivation of this investigation is to model and compare the neutral beam driven Alfvén eigenmode (AE) activity in two DIII-D discharges with positive and negative triangularity shaping of plasma. The simulations are performed using the linear version of the FAR3d code, which solves the reduced MHD equations for thermal plasma with addition of moment equations for the energetic ion density and parallel velocity with appropriate Landau closure relations. Overall, our numerical results indicate that for similar physical parameters, the unstable AEs observed in the negative triangularity case have lower growth rates as compared to the positive triangularity regime. Our findings may be useful to analyze the influence of the reverse-D like geometry on the AE instabilities in DIII-D and may lead to better configurations for minimizing fast ion losses in a tokamak device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compatibilization Strategy and Mechanism for Co-stabilizing Commingled Plastics and Pyrolyzed Rubber in Asphalt

Hot mix asphalt mixture is considered the ideal approach to reuse waste plastics in high-value applications because of its very high amount of usage in highway construction. However, the differences in polarity and density between polymers and asphalt lead to polymer coalescence and therefore the poor storage stability of modified asphalt. These challenges are exalted when recycling commingled plastics. This study introduced an innovative compatibilization strategy and mechanism for co-stabilizing commingled plastics and pyrolyzed rubber in asphalt. Commingled plastics were first grafted with maleic anhydride for surface activation, followed by reactive kneading with pyrolyzed rubber and crosslinking agent to form an integrated thermoplastic elastomer (ITPE) for asphalt modification. The mechanical, thermal, and interfacial behaviors of the ITPE were evaluated through tensile testing, thermogravimetric analysis, and scanning electron microscopy. The storage stability and rheological properties of the modified binder blends were evaluated through the cigar tube test and dynamic shear rheometer testing. Results demonstrated a successful formation of imide bonds in the ITPE, which can improve the strength, ductility, and thermal stability of rubber–plastic composites. Appropriate utilization of crosslinking agents can improve both rutting and fatigue resistance of ITPE-modified asphalt with good storage stability because of the co-existence of rigid plastic and soft rubbery regimes and the formation of a crosslink network. Furthermore, excessive content of crosslinker led to severe phase separation and reduced storage stability of modified binder blends. Extra crosslinker tended to float in asphalt because of its low density and caused an excessive formation of the crosslink network in the top section of the asphalt.

asphalt binder modifiers↗
DOE OSTI2022

The 5 Cs of Agrivoltaic Success Factors in the United States: Lessons from the InSPIRE Research Study

The concept of agrivoltaics (combining agriculture and solar photovoltaics technologies on the same land in novel configurations) has emerged as an approach to mitigate conflicts between solar and agricultural activities by providing mutual benefits and added values to each sector. The U.S. Department of Energy has supported agrivoltaics research since 2015 through its Innovative Solar Practices Integrated with Rural Economies and Ecosystems (InSPIRE) research project (National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2022). The InSPIRE project is the most comprehensive coordinated research effort on agrivoltaics in the United States and has examined opportunities and tradeoffs at over 25 sites across the country that span crop production, pollinator habitat, ecosystem services, animal husbandry, and d. Integrating research sites with active commercial agricultural operations can introduce unique challenges for conducting research. This synthesis aims to highlight the technical and non-technical insights from InSPIRE agrivoltaic field research sites from 2015-2021 to support i) appropriate deployment of agrivoltaic projects; ii) more successful research on agrivoltaics; and iii) more effective partnerships on agrivoltaic projects. The synthesized lessons discussed here are focused less on specific case study outcomes (i.e., the percent change in crop yield in an agrivoltaics configuration), and instead more on the elements that enable and facilitate agrivoltaics projects to be installed and operated along with research to be conducted at those sites. We find that there are some insights that are applicable across all types of agrivoltaic projects, while ecosystem service projects and crop production agrivoltaic projects can often have other unique considerations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reaction engineering: a lost (and found) art for a decarbonized future [Slides]

The heart (or, perhaps more appropriately, the stomach) of any chemical manufacturing process is the reactor, where chemical and physical transformations occur under precisely controlled conditions. For traditional industrial processes, the design, optimization and operation of chemical reactors are extremely well developed, drawing upon the principles of chemistry, physics, calculus and economics. However, new-age process concepts proposing to use "exotic" reactors and/or sustainable inputs (e.g., renewable carbon resources, electrons, photons, plasma) face a dearth of well documented reaction engineering principles & design practices that eclipses their rapid adoption. This presentation features two vignettes of (the return of) reaction engineering in sustainable process science, first in the valorization of lignin from biomass, and second in understanding multimodal catalyst deactivation in industrial-scale reactors within the Catofin process for propane dehydrogenation. Overall, this seminar seeks to educate student researchers on practical means of advancing laboratory reactor technologies towards commercial practice.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Alternative Core Designs for Fission Surface Power Capability Demonstration Mission (V.1.0)

NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) intends to demonstrate a 10 kWe fission surface power (FSP) system on the surface of the Moon as part of a Capability Demonstration Mission. STMD tasked a joint NASA-DOE team to ‘outline an FSP reactor concept that can be readied for 2027 launch,’ and serves ‘as a pathfinder for future power modules for Mars.’ Tables 1 and 2 respectively list FSP performance requirements and design guidance provided for the study. DOE is the leading agency for the reactor module, reactor controls and radiation shielding, and shares joint responsibility for the overall FSP system. This report summarizes an analysis of alternative reactor classes and shielding configurations carried out by the DOE national laboratories. Representative reactor and shielding configurations were based on heritage and are in alignment with the industry initiatives. This report presents no recommendations on the appropriate choice of fuel or class of reactor that NASA should pursue. Instead the focus here is to provide a summary and findings of analyses carried out by DOE national laboratory personnel.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning on a Robotic Platform for the Design of Polymer–Protein Hybrids

Polymer–protein hybrids are intriguing materials that can bolster protein stability in non-native environments, thereby enhancing their utility in diverse medicinal, commercial, and industrial applications. One stabilization strategy involves designing synthetic random copolymers with compositions attuned to the protein surface, but rational design is complicated by the vast chemical and composition space. Here, a strategy is reported to design protein-stabilizing copolymers based on active machine learning, facilitated by automated material synthesis and characterization platforms. The versatility and robustness of the approach is demonstrated by the successful identification of copolymers that preserve, or even enhance, the activity of three chemically distinct enzymes following exposure to thermal denaturing conditions. Although systematic screening results in mixed success, active learning appropriately identifies unique and effective copolymer chemistries for the stabilization of each enzyme. Overall, this work broadens the capabilities to design fit-for-purpose synthetic copolymers that promote or otherwise manipulate protein activity, with extensions toward the design of robust polymer–protein hybrid materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

CHGNet as a pretrained universal neural network potential for charge-informed atomistic modelling

Large-scale simulations with complex electron interactions remain one of the greatest challenges for atomistic modelling. Although classical force fields often fail to describe the coupling between electronic states and ionic rearrangements, the more accurate ab initio molecular dynamics suffers from computational complexity that prevents long-time and large-scale simulations, which are essential to study technologically relevant phenomena. Here we present the Crystal Hamiltonian Graph Neural Network (CHGNet), a graph neural network-based machine-learning interatomic potential (MLIP) that models the universal potential energy surface. CHGNet is pretrained on the energies, forces, stresses and magnetic moments from the Materials Project Trajectory Dataset, which consists of over 10 years of density functional theory calculations of more than 1.5 million inorganic structures. The explicit inclusion of magnetic moments enables CHGNet to learn and accurately represent the orbital occupancy of electrons, enhancing its capability to describe both atomic and electronic degrees of freedom. We demonstrate several applications of CHGNet in solid-state materials, including charge-informed molecular dynamics in Li x MnO 2 , the finite temperature phase diagram for Li x FePO 4 and Li diffusion in garnet conductors. We highlight the significance of charge information for capturing appropriate chemistry and provide insights into ionic systems with additional electronic degrees of freedom that cannot be observed by previous MLIPs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Performance Equilibrium Solvers for Integrated Magnetic Fusion Simulations

With the funding provided by this award, we developed numerical codes for the study of magnetically confined plasmas for fusion applications. Accordingly, our work can be divided into two separate categories: 1) the design and analysis of novel numerical methods providing high accuracy and high efficiency; 2) the study of the equilibrium and stability of magnetically confined plasmas with some of these numerical codes, as well as the study of the nature of the turbulent behavior which may arise in the presence of instabilities. We first developed new numerical schemes based on integral equation methods for the computation of steady-state magnetic configurations in fusion experiments, providing high accuracy for the magnetic field and its derivatives, which are required for stability and turbulence calculations. We employed different integral formulations depending on the application of interest: axisymmetric or non-axisymmetric equilibria, force-free or magnetohydrodynamic equilibria, fixed-boundary equilibria or free-boundary equilibria. While efficient, these methods do not yet apply to plasma boundaries which are not smooth, a situation which is fairly common in magnetic confinement experiments. To address this temporary weakness, we also constructed a new steady-state solver based on the Hybridizable Discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) method, which provides full geometric flexibility. In addition to these numerical tools focused on steady-states, we also contributed to the improvement of the speed and accuracy of codes simulating the plasma dynamics of fusion plasmas, by developing a novel velocity space representation for the efficient solution of kinetic equations, which most accurately describe the time evolution of hot plasmas in fusion experiments. Using the tools discussed above, we studied several questions pertaining to the equilibrium and stability of magnetically confined plasmas. In particular, we derived a new simple model for axisymmetric devices called tokamaks, to predict how elongated a fusion plasma can be before it becomes unstable and collapses. We also looked at the effect of the shape of the outer plasma surface on key properties of the steady-state magnetic configurations, and how these properties impact turbulence in fusion plasmas, and the corresponding transport of momentum. Likewise, we studied the role of large localized flows on the steady-state magnetic configurations, and how they may influence plasma stability and turbulence. Non-axisymmetric steady-state magnetic configurations are inherently more complex than axisymmetric steady-state configurations, and the subject of ongoing controversies regarding the regularity of the equations determining such steady-states, and their solutions. Implementing an existing NYU code in a new geometry, we studied the nature of the singularity of the solutions observed in the code, and methods to eliminate them. Our main conclusion is that by appropriately tailoring the plasma boundary, it is possible to eliminate the singularities otherwise appearing in our simulations, and to obtain steady-states which appear to be smooth. To gain further insights on incompletely understood turbulence phenomena, we proposed a new reduced model capturing most of these phenomena, which is simple enough to not require expensive numerical simulations on massive supercomputers to investigate them. We demonstrated the strong similarity between our simulations and published results obtained from computationally expensive simulations, and plan to rely on our reduced model to identify the key mechanisms determining the evolution and strength turbulent driven transport in fusion plasmas. Finally, we proposed a new framework for tokamak reactor design studies, enabling us to consider the relative merits of steady-state versus pulsed fusion reactors. We found that pulsed fusion reactors may benefit most from recent advances in magnet technology, and the availability of very high field magnets. As such, they may become more desirable than steady-state tokamak reactors for cost efficient electricity generation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Maintainable Fusion Pilot Plant

The US fusion community has coalesced around the goal of building an FPP as described by the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM). In addition to demonstrating the viability of the technologies necessary to operate such a plant, including demonstration of net energy and electricity production, NASEM found that a “fusion pilot plant will need to demonstrate the ability to efficiently perform remote maintenance and replacement in support of the design of a power plant, taking into account details of the consequences of the fusion environment, such as material activation and tritium retention in components.” Current designs of fusion demonstration reactors do usually foresee a regular exchange of their first wall modules, including the tritium breeding blankets. In the European Power Plant Conceptual Studies, it is assumed that a fusion reactor will need to change its divertor every 2 years and its first wall blanket module every 5 to 6 years to reach acceptable availability. Underlying this capability are remote-handling technologies to keep the outage for the exchange of these components short. There are many uncertainties in the remote-handling schemes, and most schemes are at a preconceptual level at best. In addition, the exchange of these components would either produce an enormous rad-waste stream or would require an enormous refurbishment activity with huge cost-prohibitive hot-cells. Past Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) preconceptual studies have led to hot cell dimensions of an unbelievable size, likely costing tens of billions of dollars. Already at The Way (previously International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, ITER), hot-cells have become cost-prohibitive, demanding redesigns of the ITER first wall to reduce the toxic rad-waste/inventory. In this in-situ PFC repair project, a concept for a long-life, maintainable first wall module concept is developed and tested. This first wall concept relies on innovative remote handling to repair the first wall modules in-situ, avoiding costly refurbishments outside of the tokamak vessel. This approach was highlighted in the Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee (FESAC) report on Transformative Enabling Capabilities for Efficient Advance Toward Fusion Energy. In general, the damage of the first wall armor is due to particle and radiation exposures. Load conditions vary from one fusion reactor design to another. In tokamaks, first wall Plasma Facing Components (PFCs) are exposed to far-Scrape-Off-Layer plasma fluxes, electromagnetic radiation, energetic CX neutrals, and potentially runaway electron beams. Protecting the first wall to the worst-case load conditions would require the design of a very thick first wall armor. Transient heat and particle fluxes due to disruptions or edge localized modes can lead to excessive heat loads resulting potentially in melting PFCs down to the cooling channel. Catastrophic events like these need to be avoided by appropriate disruption mitigation systems. However, failure of these systems will still put a first wall at an unacceptable risk. Hence, a first wall design needs to accommodate the occasional transient heat loads by introducing sacrificial limiters, which will absorb these transients.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overcoming Metastable CO 2 Adsorption in a Bulky Diamine-Appended Metal-Organic Framework

We report carbon capture at fossil fuel-fired power plants is a critical strategy to mitigate anthropogenic contributions to global warming, but widespread deployment of this technology is hindered by a lack of energy-efficient materials that can be optimized for CO 2 capture from a specific flue gas. As a result of their tunable, step-shaped CO 2 adsorption profiles, diamine-functionalized metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) of the form diamine-Mg 2 (dobpdc) (dobpdc 4- = 4,4'-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3'-dicarboxylate) are among the most promising materials for carbon capture applications. Here, we present a detailed investigation of dmen-Mg 2 (dobpdc) (dmen = 1,2-diamino-2-methylpropane), one of only two MOFs with an adsorption step near the optimal pressure for CO 2 capture from coal flue gas. While prior characterization suggested that this material only adsorbs CO 2 to half capacity (0.5 CO 2 per diamine) at 1 bar, we show that the half-capacity state is actually a metastable intermediate. Under appropriate conditions, the MOF adsorbs CO 2 to full capacity, but conversion from the half-capacity structure happens on a very slow time scale, rendering it inaccessible in traditional adsorption measurements. Data from solid-state magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, coupled with van der Waals-corrected density functional theory, indicate that ammonium carbamate chains formed at half capacity and full capacity adopt opposing configurations, and the need to convert between these states likely dictates the sluggish post-half-capacity uptake. By use of the more symmetric parent framework Mg 2 (pc-dobpdc) (pc-dobpdc 4- = 3,3'-dioxidobiphenyl-4,4'-dicarboxylate), the metastable trap can be avoided and the full CO 2 capacity of dmen-Mg 2 (pc-dobpdc) accessed under conditions relevant for carbon capture from coal-fired power plants.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates

The Indiana Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) led subtask 1.1 to assess the regional distribution and estimate the storage capacity of Ordovician-Cambrian stratigraphic units located within the partnership region. A comprehensive data set of wireline logs and petrophysical information was used to generate these interpretations. These data include core analysis for porosity and permeability, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), and existing well data including location and stratigraphic information. This report includes storage resource estimates (SREs) for three potential storage reservoirs(limestone and dolostone from the Upper Ordovician Trenton Limestone/Black River Group and equivalent units, the Middle Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone, and primary target reservoir rocks of the Lower Ordovician and Upper Cambrian Knox Supergroup and equivalent units) calculated using six methodologies: (1) a fixed value of porosity of 10 percent in all units evaluated; (2) a unique average porosity (per well) from wireline-derived porosity (neutron, sonic, and/or density porosity for each unit); (3) porosity values from core analysis; (4) a depth-dependent porosity model (Knox Supergroup only); (5) porosity based on a model based on petrophysical facies; and (6) SREs using National Energy Technology Laboratory’s CO2 Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO2-SCREEN beta V2). All methods used the same values for thickness for each unit. However, the areal extent of each assessment was limited by the data available for each method. Estimated volumes were calculated in 1-by-1 kilometer grid cells and summarized as county and total stratigraphic unit volumes. The resultant SREs mass are displayed using boxplots, which allow for comparing data statistics (mean values and variability) between methods. Differences observed in SRE results from the six methods are mainly attributable to differences in the data and conceptual models used to interpret or estimate porosity in each method. Based on this systematic variability between methods, it is inferred that methods 1, 4, and 6 are best used for regional-scale reconnaissance estimates of storage capacity while methods 2, 3, and 5 are more appropriate for local scales where more data is required. All estimates are data-density dependent and different methods require different amounts of data for reasonable assessments. ArcMap 10.5.1 software was used to portray SREs to help visualize spatial variance of estimates for each methodology, and more importantly, to highlight those areas having the greatest total storage potential estimates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

High Compression in Palladium Alloy Metal Foil Pumps

Metal foil pumps (MFPs) are key components in the direct internal recycling inner fuel cycle loop for the recovery of hydrogen isotopes from deuterium-tritium fusion exhaust. Operating under vacuum conditions, they utilize superthermal hydrogen as the feed gas in a process called superpermeation. A notable feature of MFPs is their ability to pump against a pressure gradient. This study examines the compression capabilities of PdAg and PdCu MFPs at low temperatures with a constant feed pressure of 10 Pa. At 75°C, compression ratios exceeding 200 were readily achieved, with downstream pressures exceeding 4500 Pa using PdCu. For both alloys, net fluxes decreased by only ~15% at downstream pressures of 1000 Pa, which offers potential simplifications for the downstream pump train. Performance declined markedly when the temperature was elevated to 200°C. Pump curves were constructed and advocated as the most appropriate manner to assess MFP performance. Separate pressure-driven-permeation experiments at relevant conditions were conducted, providing a direct measurement of the hydrogen dissociation constant $k$ d , which was found to be in good agreement with the previous literature. Further, these measurements were used to predict pump curves and maximum compression ratios by balancing superpermeation with pressure-driven permeation, achieving excellent agreement with experiment. Last, experiments using asymmetric MFPs revealed the detrimental impact that surface impurities have on performance in this system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of data-driven neural network-based machine learning (ML) algorithms has grown significantly and spurred research in its applicability to instrumentation and control systems. While they are promising in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of such algorithms is not adequately assessed. Failures of ML-integrated systems are poorly understood; the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness of these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology, trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier to adoption and will play a vital role in intelligent systems' safe and accountable operation. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a real-time model-agnostic method to evaluate the relative reliability of ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but significantly degrade at extrapolation. This occurs when new samples are "far" from training samples. The method, referred to as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets, which is used to calculate a prediction's relative reliability. LADDR is demonstrated on a feedforward neural network-based model used to predict safety significant factors during different loss-of-flow transients. LADDR is intended as a "data supervisor" and determines the appropriateness of well-trained ML models in the context of operational conditions. Ultimately, LADDR illustrates how training data can be used as evidence to support the trustworthiness of ML predictions when utilized for conventional interpolation tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

CRISPR/Cas9 as an antiviral against Orthopoxviruses using an AAV vector

A vaccine for smallpox is no longer administered to the general public, and there is no proven, safe treatment specific to poxvirus infections, leaving people susceptible to infections by smallpox and other zoonotic Orthopoxviruses such as monkeypox. Using vaccinia virus (VACV) as a model organism for other Orthopoxviruses, CRISPR–Cas9 technology was used to target three essential genes that are conserved across the genus, including A17L, E3L, and I2L. Three individual single guide RNAs (sgRNAs) were designed per gene to facilitate redundancy in rendering the genes inactive, thereby reducing the reproduction of the virus. The efficacy of the CRISPR targets was tested by transfecting human embryonic kidney (HEK293) cells with plasmids encoding both SaCas9 and an individual sgRNA. This resulted in a reduction of VACV titer by up to 93.19% per target. Following the verification of CRISPR targets, safe and targeted delivery of the VACV CRISPR antivirals was tested using adeno-associated virus (AAV) as a packaging vector for both SaCas9 and sgRNA. Similarly, AAV delivery of the CRISPR antivirals resulted in a reduction of viral titer by up to 92.97% for an individual target. Overall, we have identified highly specific CRISPR targets that significantly reduce VACV titer as well as an appropriate vector for delivering these CRISPR antiviral components to host cells in vitro.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗