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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

GOES-Microburst Products Performance Analysis In The Cape Canaveral And Kennedy Space Center Areas

In the past few years, the capabilities of NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) have increased dramatically. Hourly vertical sounder data is now generally available, but may be unavailable depending upon cloud conditions, satellite operations, and computer system problems at NOAA's National Environmental Satellite Display and Information Service (NESDIS). Meteorologists at NESDIS have used vertical sounder data to develop experimental products for forecasting the probability of convective downbursts. The two products of interest are the Microburst Day Predictive Index (MDPI), which provides an indication of microburst potential and the WINDEX which is a forecast of maximum winds assuming a microburst does occur. Data analyses were made for the central Florida convective season, that is, the period beginning May I and ending September 30. The MDPI showed significant potential as an aid in forecasting convective downbursts. MDPI calculated from GOES soundings were well correlated with those calculated from Cape Canaveral RAOBs.

Witiw, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

GOES-Microburst Products Performance Analysis in the Cape Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center Areas

In the past few years, the capabilities of NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) have increased dramatically. Hourly vertical sounder data is now generally available, but may be unavailable depending upon cloud conditions, satellite operations, and computer system problems at NOAA#s National Environmental Satellite Display and Information Service (NESDIS). Meteorologists at NESDIS have used vertical sounder data to develop experimental products for forecasting the probability of convective downbursts. The two products of interest are the Microburst Day Predictive Index (MDPI), which provides an indication of microburst potential and the WINDEX which is a forecast of maximum winds assuming a microburst does occur. Data analyses were made for the central Florida convective season, that is, the period beginning May 1 and ending September 30. The MDPI showed significant potential as an aid in forecasting convective downbursts. MDPI calculated from GOES soundings were well correlated with those calculated from Cape Canaveral RAOBs.

Witiw, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Comparative Analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB3GEO Tools for the Forecast of the Fluxes of High-Energy Electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) observations at L1. The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast.

Balikhin, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

On the day-of-launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers to include NASA's Launch Services Program and NASA's Ground Systems Development and Operations Program. They currently do not have the capability to display and overlay profiles of upper-level observations and numerical weather prediction model forecasts. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) that will allow them to plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) 50 MHz tropospheric wind profiling radar, KSC Shuttle Landing Facility 915 MHz boundary layer wind profiling radar and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Processing System (AMPS) radiosondes, and then overlay forecast wind profiles from the model point data including the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, Rapid Refresh (RAP) model and Global Forecast System (GFS) model to assess the performance of these models. The AMU developed an Excel-based tool that provides an objective method for the LWOs to compare the model-forecast upper-level winds to the KSC wind profiling radars and CCAFS AMPS observations to assess the model potential to accurately forecast changes in the upperlevel profile through the launch count. The AMU wrote Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) scripts to automatically retrieve model point data for CCAFS (XMR) from the Iowa State University Archive Data Server (http://mtarchive.qeol.iastate.edu) and the 50 MHz, 915 MHz and AMPS observations from the NASA/KSC Spaceport Weather Data Archive web site (http://trmm.ksc.nasa.gov). The AMU then developed code in Excel VBA to automatically ingest and format the observations and model point data in Excel to ready the data for generating Excel charts for the LWO's. The resulting charts allow the LWOs to independently initialize the three models 0-hour forecasts against the observations to determine which is the best performing model and then overlay the model forecasts on time-matched observations during the launch countdown to further assess the model performance and forecasts. This paper will demonstrate integration of observed and predicted atmospheric conditions into a decision support tool and demonstrate how the GUI is implemented in operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS1983

Forecasting tropical cyclone recurvature with upper tropospheric winds

Data from 17 tropical cyclones during the 1974 through 1979 hurricane seasons are used to investigate whether the high level winds far to the northwest, north and northeast of the hurricane center can be used to predict hurricane track recurvature. When the man 200-mb winds 1500 to 2000 km northwest and north of the storm center equal or exceed 20 m/s, 80 per cent of the storms recurved before traveling as much as 12 degrees of longitude farther west. The high winds were also used to predict change in direction of forward motion during the next 72 hours. The regression equations developed explain up to 41 per cent of the variance in future direction. In addition to the geostrophic winds used, winds were also obtained by tracking clouds with successive satellite imagery. The u-components of the satellite winds are highly correlated with the geostrophic winds at 200-mb and could probably be used instead of them when available. The v-components are less highly correlated.

Gentry, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Short-term forecasting of lightning based on the surface wind field at Kennedy Space Center

Cloud-to-ground lightning is related in time and space to surface convergence for 244 days during the summer over a 790 sqkm network. The method uses surface convergence, particularly the average over the area, to identify the potential for new, local thunderstorm growth, and can be used to specify the likely time and location of lightning during the life cycle of the convection. A threshold of 0.0000075/sec change in divergence is used to define a convergence event, and a separation of 30 min between flashes defines a lightning event. Time intervals are found to be on the order of 1 hr from beginning convergence to first flash, and (CH110) 2 hr from beginning convergence to the end of lightning. Major differences between the convergence-lightning relationships based on low-level mean onshore and offshore flow are noted.

Watson, Andrew I.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Distributed Resource Energy Analysis and Management System (DREAMS) Development for Real-time Grid Operations

This project supports development of the next generation, integrated energy management infrastructure (EMS) able to incorporate advance visualization of behind-the-meter distributed resource information and probabilistic renewable energy generation forecasts to inform real-time operational decisions. The project involves end-users and active feedback from an Utility Advisory Team (UAT) to help inform how information can be used to enhance operational functions (e.g. unit commitment, load forecasting, Automatic Generation Control (AGC) reserve monitoring, ramp alerts) within two major EMS platforms. Objectives include: Engaging utility operations personnel to develop user input on displays, set expectations, test and review; Developing ease of use and timeliness metrics for measuring enhancements; Developing prototype integrated capabilities within two operational EMS environments; Demonstrating an integrated decision analysis platform with real-time wind and solar forecasting information and timely distributed resource information; Seamlessly integrating new 4-dimensional information into operations without increasing workload and complexities; Developing sufficient analytics to inform and confidently transform and adopt new operating practices and procedures; Disseminating project lessons learned through industry sponsored workshops and conferences;Building on collaborative utility-vendor partnership and industry capabilities

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

A preliminary study of the impact of the ERS 1 C band scatterometer wind data on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global data assimilation system

A preliminary assessment of the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer wind data on the current European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis and forecast system has been carried out. Although the scatterometer data results in changes to the analyses and forecasts, there is no consistent improvement or degradation. Our results are based on comparing analyses and forecasts from assimilation cycles. The two sets of analyses are very similar except for the low level wind fields over the ocean. Impacts on the analyzed wind fields are greater over the southern ocean, where other data are scarce. For the most part the mass field increments are too small to balance the wind increments. The effect of the nonlinear normal mode initialization on the analysis differences is quite small, but we observe that the differences tend to wash out in the subsequent 6-hour forecast. In the Northern Hemisphere, analysis differences are very small, except directly at the scatterometer locations. Forecast comparisons reveal large differences in the Southern Hemisphere after 72 hours. Notable differences in the Northern Hemisphere do not appear until late in the forecast. Overall, however, the Southern Hemisphere impacts are neutral. The experiments described are preliminary in several respects. We expect these data to ultimately prove useful for global data assimilation.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Managing Wind Power Uncertainty Through Strategic Reserve Purchasing

With the rapidly increasing penetration of wind power, wind producers are becoming increasingly responsible for the deviation of the wind power output from the forecast. Such uncertainty results in revenue losses to the wind power producers (WPPs) due to penalties in ex-post imbalance settlements. This paper explores the opportunities available for WPPs if they can purchase or schedule some reserves to offset part of their deviation rather than being fully penalized in the real time market. The revenue for WPPs under such mechanism is modeled. The optimal strategy for managing the uncertainty of wind power by purchasing reserves to maximize the WPP's revenue is analytically derived with rigorous optimality conditions. The amount of energy and reserves that should be bid in the market are explicitly quantified by the probabilistic forecast and the prices of the energy and reserves. A case study using the price data from ERCOT and wind power data from NREL is performed to verify the effectiveness of the derived optimal bidding strategy and the benefits of reserve purchasing. Additionally, the proposed bidding strategy can also reduce the risk of variations on WPP's revenue.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Tracer transport for realistic aircraft emission scenarios calculated using a three-dimensional model

A three-dimensional transport model, which uses winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system, is used to study the transport of supersonic aircraft exhaust in the lower stratosphere. A passive tracer is continuously injected into the transport model. The tracer source distribution is based on realistic scenarios for the daily emission rate of reactive nitrogen species for all forecasted flight routes. Winds are from northern hemisphere winter/spring months for 1979 and 1989; there are minimal differences between the tracer integrations for the 2 years. During the integration, peak tracer mixing ratios in the flight corridors are compared with the zonal mean and found to be greater by a factor of 2 or less. This implies that the zonal mean assumption used in two dimensional models is reasonable during winter and spring. There is a preference for pollutant buildup in the heavily traveled North Pacific and North Atlantic flight corridors. Pollutant concentration in the corridors depends on the position of the Aleutian anticyclone and the northern hemisphere polar vortex edge.

Weaver, Clark J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Boundary layer control of nocturnal convection associated with a synoptic scale system

Well defined nocturnal convection, together with distinct maximum precipitation events in Nebraska, were associated with strong diurnal wind oscillations at 850 mb in Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri in the present study of pronounced precipitation and low level circulation variations over the Great Plains on May 5-10, 1979. A numerical prediction model, used to relate boundary layer flow modulations to synoptic scale flow for this case, is driven by a diurnal cycle. Experimental forecasts displayed diurnal wind modulations at 500 m, with rising motions of the order of 4 cm/sec at the 2200 m level, along the leading edge of the nocturnal jet.

Astling, E. G.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Market-Based Indian Grid Integration Study Options: Preprint

The Indian state of Gujarat is forecasting solar and wind generation expansion from 16% to 32% of installed generation capacity by 2015. Some states in India are already experiencing heavy wind power curtailment. Understanding how to integrate variable generation (VG) into the grid is of great interest to local transmission companies and India's Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. This paperdescribes the nature of a market-based integration study and how this approach, while new to Indian grid operation and planning, is necessary to understand how to operate and expand the grid to best accommodate the expansion of VG. Second, it discusses options in defining a study's scope, such as data granularity, generation modeling, and geographic scope. The paper also explores how Gujarat'smethod of grid operation and current system reliability will affect how an integration study can be performed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2000

SSMI Wind Speed Climatology of the Time of Monsoon Wind Offset in the Western Arabian Sea

Forecasting the time of onset of monsoon wind in the western Arabian Sea, which is believed to precede the onset of rainfall along the west coast of India, is an important unsolved problem. Prior to measurements of the surface wind field by satellite, there was an absence of suitable surface wind observations. NASA scatterometer (NSCAT) surface wind vectors revealed that the time of the 1997 onset of 12 m/s southwest monsoon wind speeds in the western Arabian Sea preceded the onset of monsoon rainfall in Goa, India, by 3 - 4 days. Wind speed and direction data were necessary to establish a dynamical mechanism between times of onset of 12 m/s wind speed off Somalia and rainfall in Goa. Except for NSCAT, no satellite scatterometer wind product recorded adequately sampled 2-day 1deg x 1deg averaged wind vectors, which are the required space and time scales, to examine the wind-rain relationship in other years. However, the greater-than-95% steadiness of summer monsoon winds allows an opportunity to use satellite measurements of surface wind speed. The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) recorded surface wind speed with adequate sampling to produce a 1-day, 1deg x 1deg data product during 1988 - 1998. SSMI data had been uniformly processed throughout the period. Times of onset of 12 m/s wind speed off Somalia determined with the SSMI data set were 21 May 1988, 24 May 1989, 17 May 1990, 28 May 1991, 8 June 1992, 28 May 1993, 30 May 1994, 7 June 1995, 29 May 1996, 12 June 1997, and 15 May 1998. Uncertainty of the 1992 and 1996 times of onset were increased because of the absence of SSMI data on 6 and 7 June 1992 and on 30 May 1996. Correlations of timing of monsoon wind onset with El Nino will be described. Variability of the time difference between times of onset of 12 m/s wind speed and Goa rainfall will be discussed. At the time of submission of the abstract, the Goa rainfall data have not arrived from the India Meteorological Department.

Halpern, David↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of wind power scenario creation methods for stochastic power systems operations

Probabilistic scenarios of renewable energy production, such as wind, have been gaining popularity for use in stochastic variants of power systems operations scheduling problems, allowing for optimal decision-making under uncertainty. The quality of the scenarios has a direct impact on the value of the resulting decisions, but until now, methods for creating scenarios have not been compared under realistic operational conditions. Here, we compare the quality of scenario sets created using three different methods, based on a simulated re-enactment of stochastic day-ahead unit commitment and subsequent dispatch for a realistic test system. We create scenarios using a dataset of forecasted and actual wind power values, scaled to evaluate the effects of increasing wind penetration levels. We show that the choice of scenario set can significantly impact system operating cost, renewable energy use, and the ability of the system to meet demand. This result has implications for the ability of system operators to efficiently integrate renewable production into their day-ahead planning, highlighting the need for the use of performance-based assessments for scenario evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2000

A New Eddy Dissipation Rate Formulation for the Terminal Area PBL Prediction System(TAPPS)

The TAPPS employs the MASS model to produce mesoscale atmospheric simulations in support of the Wake Vortex project at Dallas Fort-Worth International Airport (DFW). A post-processing scheme uses the simulated three-dimensional atmospheric characteristics in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to calculate the turbulence quantities most important to the dissipation of vortices: turbulent kinetic energy and eddy dissipation rate. TAPPS will ultimately be employed to enhance terminal area productivity by providing weather forecasts for the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS). The post-processing scheme utilizes experimental data and similarity theory to determine the turbulence quantities from the simulated horizontal wind field and stability characteristics of the atmosphere. Characteristic PBL quantities important to these calculations are determined based on formulations from the Blackadar PBL parameterization, which is regularly employed in the MASS model to account for PBL processes in mesoscale simulations. The TAPPS forecasts are verified against high-resolution observations of the horizontal winds at DFW. Statistical assessments of the error in the wind forecasts suggest that TAPPS captures the essential features of the horizontal winds with considerable skill. Additionally, the turbulence quantities produced by the post-processor are shown to compare favorably with corresponding tower observations.

Charney, Joseph J.↗
DOE OSTI2012

FY12 Report: Meteorological Observations for Renewable Energy Applications at Site 300

Accurate, high-resolution meteorological measurements of wind flow in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and surface-atmosphere energy exchange are required for understanding the properties and quality of available wind power at Site 300. Wind speeds at heights found in a typical wind turbine rotor disk (~ 40- 120 m) are driven by the synergistic impacts of atmospheric stability, orography, and land-surface characteristics on the mean wind flow and related turbulence structures in the PBL. In FY11, two Laser and Detection Ranging (LIDAR) units, a 3 m tall flux tower, and a 3 m tall meteorological tower were installed in the northern section of Site 300 as a first step in development of a renewable energy testbed facility. The LIDAR units were programmed to measure wind speed and direction up to 200 m. The flux tower measured land surface-atmospheric energy exchanges and provided information on the mechanisms for turbulence production in the atmosphere and atmospheric stability. Atmospheric stability largely determines wind speed and turbulence profiles in the lower part of the boundary layer where wind turbines reside. In FY12 the SMS project was further expanded by the earlier addition of solar power to the LIDAR units. This enabled the units to be moved to different areas within Site 300 in order to gather a larger spatial range of measurements. Additional LIDAR locations were chosen based on (1) feasibility and logistics (e.g., away from the blast zone and special habitat zones) and (2) areas forecasted to have high wind speeds and/or high turbulence from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. High turbulence is of interest because very high amounts of turbulent energy can be damaging to turbine components. Between December 2011-April 2012, the two LIDAR units were rotated amongst three locations: the tall (52 m) meteorological tower, the radio tower, and the Matthew area (named after Matthew Simpson) (Figure 1). The radio tower location was in the center of Site 300 and represented the site with highest elevation and potentially highest wind speeds as forecasted by WRF. The Matthew area in the southeast represented a site with high wind speeds and potentially high levels of turbulence. In FY11 we presented a quality control report which illustrated the accuracy of the LIDAR wind speed and direction measurements as compared to the 52 m tall meteorological tower and provided annual statistics for wind speed and direction up to 200 m for the meteorological tower location in the northern section of Site 300. In the FY12 report we present: 1. a second year of LIDAR and flux tower statistics for 2012, 2. an enhanced spatial dataset of LIDAR observations with the addition of two new sites, and 3. a look at off-site LIDAR field campaigns.

17 WIND ENERGY↗