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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

COVID-19 trends at the University of Tennessee: predictive insights from raw sewage SARS-CoV-2 detection and evaluation and PMMoV as an indicator for human waste

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has become a valuable tool for monitoring the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses. However, concerns about effectiveness of raw sewage as a COVID-19 early warning system still exist, and it’s not clear how useful normalization by simultaneous comparison of Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV) is in addressing variations resulting from fecal discharge dilution. This study aims to contribute insights into these aspects by conducting an academic-year field trial at the student residences on the University of Tennessee, Knoxville campus, raw sewage. This was done to investigate the correlations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA load, both with and without PMMoV normalization, and various parameters, including active COVID-19 cases, self-isolations, and their combination among all student residents. Significant positive correlations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA load a week prior, during the monitoring week, and the subsequent week with active cases. Despite these correlations, normalization by PMMoV does not enhance these associations. These findings suggest the potential utility of SARS-CoV-2 RNA load as an early warning indicator and provide valuable insights into the application and limitations of WBE for COVID-19 surveillance specifically within the context of raw sewage on university campuses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combined Pre-supernova Alert System with KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande

Preceding a core-collapse supernova (CCSN), various processes produce an increasing amount of neutrinos of all flavors characterized by mounting energies from the interior of massive stars. Among them, the electron antineutrinos are potentially detectable by terrestrial neutrino experiments such as KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande (SK) via inverse beta decay interactions. Once these pre-supernova (pre-SN) neutrinos are observed, an early warning of the upcoming CCSN can be provided. In light of this, KamLAND and SK, both located in the Kamioka mine in Japan, have been monitoring pre-SN neutrinos since 2015 and 2021, respectively. Recently, we performed a joint study between KamLAND and SK on pre-SN neutrino detection. A pre-SN alert system combining the KamLAND detector and the SK detector was developed and put into operation, which can provide a supernova alert to the astrophysics community. Fully leveraging the complementary properties of these two detectors, the combined alert is expected to resolve a pre-SN neutrino signal from a 15 M ⊙ star within 510 pc of the Earth at a significance level corresponding to a false alarm rate of no more than 1 per century. For a Betelgeuse-like model with optimistic parameters, it can provide early warnings up to 12 hr in advance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Public expectations of and responses to WEA message content

Risk communication is crucial to building resilient communities because it allows multi-directional information exchange about a hazard event and its associated risks among stakeholders, and it seeks to promote protective behavior among at-risk populations. Public response to alerts and warnings and inclination to take protective action, however, are influenced by several factors, including message content and style (accuracy, consistency, and clarity), message source and frequency of delivery, language and technologies used for dissemination, and the socio-psychological characteristics of message recipients. Using the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM), this chapter examines the role of language preference of at-risk individuals on their response to alerts received from authoritative sources (i.e., Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) messages) and via Online Social Networks (OSN) (i.e., social media). An analysis of survey responses of a sample of residents of the Mississippi Gulf Coast was conducted to determine the (1) socioeconomic characteristics influencing public response to warnings – specifically, response to evacuation notice; and (2) role of language preference on public use of specific communication channel. The southeastern United States is home to diverse ethnic and sociocultural communities whose first language is not English. The results of this study provide evidence that will contribute to efforts to make risk communication more inclusive of greater segments of society, ensure integration of local knowledge, and contextualize messages to promote more effective public response.

Kar, Bandana↗
DOE OSTI2018

Epi Archive: Automated Synthesis of Global Notifiable Disease Data

ObjectiveLANL has built software that automatically collects global notifiable disease data, synthesizes the data, and makes it available to humans and computers within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE) as a novel data stream. These data have many applications including improving the prediction and early warning of disease events.IntroductionMost countries do not report national notifiable disease data in a machine-readable format. Data are often in the form of a file that contains text, tables and graphs summarizing weekly or monthly disease counts. This presents a problem when information is needed for more data intensive approaches to epidemiology, biosurveillance and public health.While most nations likely store incident data in a machine-readable format, governments are often hesitant to share data openly for a variety of reasons that include technical, political, economic, and motivational issues1.A survey conducted by LANL of notifiable disease data reporting in over fifty countries identified only a few websites that report data in a machine-readable format. The majority (>70%) produce reports as PDF files on a regular basis. The bulk of the PDF reports present data in a structured tabular format, while some report in natural language.The structure and format of PDF reports change often; this adds to the complexity of identifying and parsing the desired data. Not all websites publish in English, and it is common to find typos and clerical errors.LANL has developed a tool, Epi Archive, to collect global notifiable disease data automatically and continuously and make it uniform and readily accessible.MethodsWe conducted a survey of the national notifiable disease reporting systems notating how the data are reported and in what formats. We determined the minimal metadata that is required to contextualize incident counts properly, as well as optional metadata that is commonly found.The development of software to regularly ingest notifiable disease data and make it available involves three or four main steps: scraping, detecting, parsing and persisting.Scraping: we examine website design and determine reporting mechanisms for each country/website, as well as what varies across the reporting mechanisms. We then designed and wrote code to automate the downloading of the data for each country. We store all artifacts presented as files (PDF, XLSX, etc.) in their original form, along with appropriate metadata for parsing and data provenance.Detecting: This step is required when parsing structured non-machine-readable data such as tabular data in PDF files. We combined the Nurminen methodology of PDF table detection with in-house heuristics to find the desired data within PDF reports2.Parsing: We determined what to extract from each dataset and parsed these data into uniform data structures, correctly accommodating the variations in metadata (e.g., time interval definitions) and the various human languages.Persisting: We store the data in the Epi Archive database and make it available on the internet and through the BSVE. The data is persisted into a structured and normalized SQL database.ResultsThe Epi Archive tool currently contains national and/or subnational notifiable disease data from twenty nations. When a user accesses the Epi Archive site, they are prompted with four fields: country, subregion, disease of interest, and date duration. Upon form submission, a time series is generated from the users’ specifications. The generated graph can then be downloaded into a CSV file if a user is interested in performing personal analysis. Additionally, the data from Epi Archive can be reached through a REST API (Representational State Transfer Application Programming Interface).ConclusionsLANL, as part of a currently funded DTRA effort, is automatically and continually collecting global notifiable disease data. While 20 nations are in production, more are being brought online in the near future. These data are already being utilized and will have many applications including improving the prediction and early warning of disease events.References[1] van Panhuis WG, Paul P, Emerson C, et al. A systematic review of barriers to data sharing in public health. BMC Public Health. 2014. 14:1144. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-1144[2] Nurminen, Anssi. "Algorithmic extraction of data in tables in PDF documents." (2013).

Khalsa, Hari S.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Soda Pop: A Time-Series Clustering, Alarming and Disease Forecasting Application

To introduce Soda Pop, an R/Shiny application designed to be a disease agnostic time-series clustering, alarming, and forecasting tool to assist in disease surveillance “triage, analysis and reporting” workflows within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE). In this poster, we highlight the new capabilities that are brought to the BSVE by Soda Pop with an emphasis on the impact of methodological decisions. The Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE) is a biological and chemical threat surveillance system sponsored by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). BSVE is intended to be user-friendly, multi-agency, cooperative, modular and threat agnostic platform for biosurveillance. In BSVE, a web-based workbench presents the analyst with applications (apps) developed by various DTRA funded researchers, which are deployed on-demand in the cloud(e.g., Amazon Web Services). These apps aim to address emerging needs and refine capabilities to enable early warning of chemical and biological threats for multiple users across local, state, and federal agencies. Soda Pop is an app developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to meet the current needs of the BSVE for early warning and detection of disease outbreaks. Aimed for use bya diverse set of analysts, the application is agnostic to data source and spatial scale enabling it to be generalizable across many diseases and locations. To achieve this, we placed a particular emphasis on clustering and alerting of disease signals within Soda Pop without strong prior assumptions on the nature of observed diseased counts. Although designed to be agnostic to the data source, Soda Pop was initially developed and tested on data summarizing Influenza-Like Illness in military hospitals from collaboration with the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch. Currently, the data incorporated also includes the CDC’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System(NNDSS) tables and the WHO’s Influenza A/B Influenza Data(Flunet). These data sources are now present in BSVE’s Postgres data storage for direct access. Soda Pop is designed to automate time-series tasks of data summarization, exploration, clustering, alarming and forecasting. Built as an R/Shiny application, Soda Pop is founded on the powerful statistical tool R.. Where applicable, Soda Pop facilitates nonparametric seasonal decomposition of time-series; hierarchical agglomerative clustering across reporting areas and between diseases within reporting areas; and a variety of alarming techniques including Exponential Weighted Moving Average alarms and Early Aberration Detection. Soda Pop embeds these techniques within a user-interface designed to enhance an analyst’s understanding of emerging trends in their data and enables the inclusion of its graphical elements into their dossier for further tracking and reporting. The ultimate goal of this software is to facilitate the discovery of unknown disease signals along with increasing the speed of detection of unusual patterns within these signals. Soda Pop organizes common statistical disease surveillance tasks in a manner integrated with BSVE data source inputs and outputs. The app analyzes time-series disease data and supports a robust set of clustering and alarming routines that avoid strong assumptions on the nature of observed disease counts. This attribute allows for flexibility in the data source, spatial scale, and disease types making it useful to a wide range of analysts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Epi Archive: automated data collection of notifiable disease data

LANL has built a software program that automatically collects global notifiable disease data—particularly data stored in files—and makes it available and shareable within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem(BSVE) as a new data source. This will improve the prediction and early warning of disease events and other applications. Most countries do not report national notifiable disease data in a machine-readable format. Data are often in the form of a file that contains text, tables and graphs summarizing weekly or monthly disease counts. This presents a problem when information is needed for more data intensive approaches to epidemiology, biosurveillance and public health as exemplified by the Biosurveillance Ecosystem(BSVE).While most nations do likely store their data in a machine-readable format, the governments are often hesitant to share data openly for a variety of reasons that include technical, political, economic, and motivational issues. For example, an attempt by LANL to obtain a weekly version of openly available monthly data, reported by the Australian government, resulted in an onerous bureaucratic reply. The obstacles to obtaining data included: paperwork to request data from each of the Australian states and territories, a long delay to obtain data (up to 3 months) and extensive limitations on the data’s use that prohibit collaboration and sharing. This type of experience when attempting to contact public health departments or ministries of health for data is not uncommon. A survey conducted by LANL of notifiable disease data reporting in 52 countries identified only 10 as being machine-readable and 42 being reported in pdf files on a regular basis. Within the 42 nations that report in pdf files, 32 report in a structured, tabular format and10 in a non-structured way. As a result, LANL has developed a tool-Epi Archive (formerly known as EPIC)-to automatically and continuously collect global notifiable disease data and make it readily accessible. We conducted a survey of the national notifiable disease reporting systems notating how the data is reported in two important dimensions: date standards and case definitions. The development of software to regularly ingests notifiable disease data frand makes this data available involved four main steps scraping, extracting, parsing and persisting. For scraping: we would examine website designs and determine reporting mechanisms for each country/website as well as what varies across the reporting mechanisms. We then designed and wrote code to automate the downloading of report pdf files, for each country. We stored report pdfs along with appropriate metadata for extracting and parsing. For extracting: we developed software that can extract notifiable disease data presented in tabular form from a pdf file. We combined the methodology of figure placement detection with the in-house developed table extraction and annotation heuristics. For parsing: we determined what to extract from each pdf dataset from the survey conducted. We then parsed the extracted data into uniform data structures correctly accommodating the dimensions surveyed and the various human languages. This task involved ingesting notifiable disease data in many disparate formats extracted from pdf files and coalescing the data into a standardized format. For persisting: We then store the data in the Epi Archive PostgreSQL database and make it available through the BSVE. The EpiArchive tool currently contains subnational notifiable disease data from 10 nations. When a user accesses the EpiArchive site, they are prompted with four fields: country, region, disease, and date duration. These fields allow the user to specify the location(down to the state level), the disease of interest, and the duration of interest. Upon form submission, a time series is generated from the users’ specifications. The generated time series can then be downloaded into a csv file if a user is interested in performing personal analysis. Additionally, the data from EpiArchive can be reached through an API. LANL as part of a currently funded DTRA effort so that it will automatically and continuously collect global notifiable disease data—particularly data stored in pdf files—and make it available and shareable within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE) as a new data source. This will provide data to analytics and users that will improve the prediction and early warning of disease events and other applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Corrosion of Containment Alloys in Molten Salt Reactors and the Prospect of Online Monitoring

The aim of this review is to communicate some essential knowledge of the underlying mechanism of the corrosion of structural containment alloys during molten salt reactor operation in the context of prospective online monitoring in future MSR installations. The formation of metal halide species and the progression of their concentration in the molten salt do reflect containment corrosion, tracing the depletion of alloying metals at the alloy salt interface will assure safe conditions during reactor operation. Even though the progress of alloying metal halides concentrations in the molten salt do strongly understate actual corrosion rates, their prospective 1 st order kinetics followed by near-linearly increase is attributed to homogeneous matrix corrosion. The service life of the structural containment alloy is derived from homogeneous matrix corrosion and near-surface void formation but less so from intergranular cracking (IGC) and pitting corrosion. Online monitoring of corrosion species is of particular interest for molten chloride systems since besides the expected formation of chromium chloride species CrCl 2 and CrCl 3 , other metal chloride species such as FeCl 2 , FeCl 3 , MoCl 2 , MnCl 2 and NiCl 2 will form, depending on the selected structural alloy. The metal chloride concentrations should follow, after an incubation period of about 10,000 hours, a linear projection with a positive slope and a steady increase of <1 ppm per day. During the incubation period metal concentration show 1 st order kinetics and increasing linearly with time. Ideally, a linear increase reflects homogeneous matrix corrosion, while a sharp increase in the metal chloride concentration could set a warning flag for potential material failure within the projected service life, e.g. as result of intergranular cracking or pitting corrosion. Continuous monitoring of metal chloride concentrations can therefore provide direct information about the mechanism of the ongoing corrosion scenario and offer valuable information for a timely warning of prospective material failure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1973

Radar/radiometer facilities for precipitation measurements

The OSU ElectroScience Laboratory Radar/Radiometer Facilities are described. This instrumentation includes a high-resolution radar/radiometer system, a fully automated low-resolution radar system, and a small surveillance radar system. The high-resolution radar/radiometer system operates at 3, 9, and 15 GHz using two 9.1 m and one 4.6 m parabolic antennas, respectively. The low-resolution and surveillance radars operate at 9 and 15 GHz, respectively. Both the high- and low-resolution systems are interfaced to real-time digital processing and recording systems. This capability was developed for the measurement of the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation in conjunction with millimeter wavelength propagation studies utilizing the Advanced Technology Satellites. Precipitation characteristics derived from these measurements could also be of direct benefit in such diverse areas as: the atmospheric sciences, meteorology, water resources, flood control and warning, severe storm warning, agricultural crop studies, and urban and regional planning.

Hodge, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Some economic benefits of a synchronous earth observatory satellite

An analysis was made of the economic benefits which might be derived from reduced forecasting errors made possible by data obtained from a synchronous satellite system which can collect earth observation and meteorological data continuously and on demand. User costs directly associated with achieving benefits are included. In the analysis, benefits were evaluated which might be obtained as a result of improved thunderstorm forecasting, frost warning, and grain harvest forecasting capabilities. The anticipated system capabilities were used to arrive at realistic estimates of system performance on which to base the benefit analysis. Emphasis was placed on the benefits which result from system forecasting accuracies. Benefits from improved thunderstorm forecasts are indicated for the construction, air transportation, and agricultural industries. The effects of improved frost warning capability on the citrus crop are determined. The benefits from improved grain forecasting capability are evaluated in terms of both U.S. benefits resulting from domestic grain distribution and U.S. benefits from international grain distribution.

Battacharyya, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Cost performance satellite design using queueing theory

The Poisson arrival model was used to determine the effects of limiting the number of channels for a disaster warning satellite. State probabilities and delay probabilities were estimated for several values of the number of channels (C) for arrival and service rates obtained from disaster warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The results predicted by the queueing model were compared with the results of a digital computer simulation.

Hein, G. F.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Inexpensive low-voltage solid-state alarm

Monitor/alarm with audio and visual warning output can be used to warn when prescribed limits of temperature, liquid level, pressure, or similar properties are exceeded. Device is more compact, lighter, and less expensive to manufacture than typical alarm circuits.

Hardy, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Compressed air demand-type firefighter's breathing system, volume 1

The commercial availability of lightweight high pressure compressed air vessels has resulted in a lightweight firefighter's breathing apparatus. The improved apparatus, and details of its design and development are described. The apparatus includes a compact harness assembly, a backplate mounted pressure reducer assembly, a lightweight bubble-type facemask with a mask mounted demand breathing regulator. Incorporated in the breathing regulator is exhalation valve, a purge valve and a whistle-type low pressure warning that sounds only during inhalation. The pressure reducer assembly includes two pressure reducers, an automatic transfer valve and a signaling device for the low pressure warning. Twenty systems were fabricated, tested, refined through an alternating development and test sequence, and extensively examined in a field evaluation program. Photographs of the apparatus are included.

Sullivan, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Pilot evaluation of sailplane handling qualities

The evaluation sailplanes were found generally deficient in the area of cockpit layout. The pilots indicated general dissatisfaction with high pitch sensitivity especially when coupled with inertially induced stick forces. While all sailplanes were judged satisfactory for centering thermals and in the ease of speed control in circling flight, pilot opinions diverged on the maneuvering response, pull-out characteristics from a dive, and on phugoid damping. Lateral-directional control problems were noted mainly during takeoff and landing for most sailplanes with the landing wheel ahead of center of gravity. Pilot opinion of in-flight lateral-directional stability and control was generally satisfactory. Five of the evaluation sailplanes exhibited a very narrow airspeed band in which perceptible stall warning buffet occurred. However, this characteristic was considered not objectionable when stall recovery was easy. The pilots objected to the characteristics of a wide airspeed band of stall warning followed by a stall with yawing and rolling tendency and substantial loss of altitude during the stall. Glide path control for the evaluation sailplanes was found to be generally objectionable.

Bennett, A. G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1978

NASA aviation safety reporting system

Reports describing various types of communication problems are presented along with summaries dealing with judgment and decision making. Concerns relating to the ground proximity warning system are summarized and several examples of true terrain proximity warnings are provided. An analytic study of reports relating to profile descents was performed. Problems were found to be associated with charting and graphic presentation of the descents, with lack of uniformity of the descent procedures among facilities using them, and with the flight crew workload engendered by profile descents, particularly when additional requirements are interposed by air traffic control during the execution of the profiles. A selection of alert bulletins and responses to them were reviewed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1978

A cycle timer for testing electric vehicles

The paper presents a cycle timer which enables the accurate following and repetition of SAE driving schedules of stop and go cycles, for electric vehicles, by reducing the human factor. The system which consists of a programmable read-only memory (PROM) stores each of these cycles, which are detailed, on its own plug-in card. The actual vehicle speed, and the PROM indicated desired speed are displayed on a dual scale meter allowing the driver to match them. A speed change is preceded by a half second buzzer warning and a new cycle by a one second warning. The PROM controls the recycle start time as well as the buzzer activation. A 5 volt regulator providing logic power, and a 12 volt dc-dc converter providing analog and memory power are described.

Soltis, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Satellite communications for disaster relief operations

The use of communication satellite systems to provide assistance in disaster relief operations on a global basis is presented. Disaster problem phases such as detection, warning, and relief; requirements for the communication capability including remote data collection, imaging and voice broadcast; and the global disaster network are discussed. Utilization of Intelsat and Marisat systems and the size and type of ground terminals required for satellite access is considered, and estimates of communication requirements for a global system and of costs for satellite services to support relief operations are given. NASA disaster related activities including studies of direct-to-home disaster warning and determination of disaster response times are described, and it is concluded that existing international satellite communication systems offer real potential for the establishment of a reliable and flexible network devoted to disaster related communication services.

Sivo, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Real-time ISEE data system

A real-time ISEE data system directed toward predicting geomagnetic substorms and storms is discussed. Such a system may allow up to 60+ minutes advance warning of magnetospheric substorms and up to 30 minute warnings of geomagnetic storms (and other disturbances) induced by high-speed streams and solar flares. The proposed system utilizes existing capabilities of several agencies (NASA, NOAA, USAF), and thereby minimizes costs. This same concept may be applicable to data from other spacecraft, and other NASA centers; thus, each individual experimenter can receive quick-look data in real time at his or her base institution.

Tsurutani, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A real-time ISEE data system

A real time International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) data system directed toward the prediction of geomagnetic substorms and storms is discussed in detail. Such a system may allow up to 60 minutes or more, advance warning of magnetospheric substorms and up to 30 minute warnings of geomagnetic storms induced by high speed streams and solar flares. The proposed system utilizes existing capabilities of several agencies thereby minimizing costs.

Tsurutani, B. T.↗