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NASA NTRS1971

Combustion of a premixed system in stagnation flow. I - Theoretical.

The theoretical steady-state and transient characteristics of a premixed combustible system in laminar axisymmetric stagnation flow are studied by way of numerical solution of the governing boundary-layer equations. Computations, which are based on the oxidation reaction of carbon monoxide in humid air, invoke a minimum of simplifying assumptions. Steady-state results include prediction of (1) profiles of the state variables, (2) extinction of blow-off conditions, (3) ignition conditions, and (4) the heat flux to the stagnation point. Computer simulations of the unsteady state provide an indication of the stability of a given steady state to perturbations. Comparisons between some of the predictions of the mathematical model and the results of laboratory experiments will be reported in Part II.

Smith, H. W.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Temperature, Pressure, and Infrared Image Survey of an Axisymmetric Heated Exhaust Plume

The focus of this research is to numerically predict an infrared image of a jet engine exhaust plume, given field variables such as temperature, pressure, and exhaust plume constituents as a function of spatial position within the plume, and to compare this predicted image directly with measured data. This work is motivated by the need to validate computational fluid dynamic (CFD) codes through infrared imaging. The technique of reducing the three-dimensional field variable domain to a two-dimensional infrared image invokes the use of an inverse Monte Carlo ray trace algorithm and an infrared band model for exhaust gases. This report describes an experiment in which the above-mentioned field variables were carefully measured. Results from this experiment, namely tables of measured temperature and pressure data, as well as measured infrared images, are given. The inverse Monte Carlo ray trace technique is described. Finally, experimentally obtained infrared images are directly compared to infrared images predicted from the measured field variables.

Nelson, Edward L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Application of Interval Predictor Models to Space Radiation Shielding

This paper develops techniques for predicting the uncertainty range of an output variable given input-output data. These models are called Interval Predictor Models (IPM) because they yield an interval valued function of the input. This paper develops IPMs having a radial basis structure. This structure enables the formal description of (i) the uncertainty in the models parameters, (ii) the predicted output interval, and (iii) the probability that a future observation would fall in such an interval. In contrast to other metamodeling techniques, this probabilistic certi cate of correctness does not require making any assumptions on the structure of the mechanism from which data are drawn. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs having minimal spread while containing all the data are developed. Constraints for bounding the minimum interval spread over the continuum of inputs, regulating the IPMs variation/oscillation, and centering its spread about a target point, are used to prevent data over tting. Furthermore, we develop an approach for using expert opinion during extrapolation. This metamodeling technique is illustrated using a radiation shielding application for space exploration. In this application, we use IPMs to describe the error incurred in predicting the ux of particles resulting from the interaction between a high-energy incident beam and a target.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Landman, Drew↗

NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification in Remaining Useful Life of Aerospace Components using State Space Models and Inverse FORM

This paper investigates the use of the inverse first-order reliability method (inverse- FORM) to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) of aerospace components. The prediction of remaining useful life is an integral part of system health prognosis, and directly helps in online health monitoring and decision-making. However, the prediction of remaining useful life is affected by several sources of uncertainty, and therefore it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. While system parameter uncertainty and physical variability can be easily included in inverse-FORM, this paper extends the methodology to include: (1) future loading uncertainty, (2) process noise; and (3) uncertainty in the state estimate. The inverse-FORM method has been used in this paper to (1) quickly obtain probability bounds on the remaining useful life prediction; and (2) calculate the entire probability distribution of remaining useful life prediction, and the results are verified against Monte Carlo sampling. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a numerical example.

Sankararaman, Shankar↗

NASA NTRS1993

Prediction of engine and near-field plume reacting flows in low-thrust chemical rockets

A computational model is employed to study the reacting flow within the engine and near-field plumes of several small gaseous hydrogen-oxygen thrusters. The model solves the full Navier-Stokes equations coupled with species diffusion equations for a hydrogen-oxygen reaction kinetics system and includes a two-equation q-omega model for turbulence. Predictions of global performance parameters and localized flowfield variables are compared with experimental data in order to assess the accuracy with which these flowfields are modeled and to identify aspects of the model which require improvement. Predicted axial and radial velocities 3 mm downstream of the exit plane show reasonable agreement with the measurements. The predicted peak in axial velocity in the hydrogen film coolant along the nozzle wall shows the best agreement; however, predictions within the core region are roughly 15 percent below measured values, indicating an underprediction of the extent to which the hydrogen diffuses and mixes with the core flow. There is evidence that this is due to three-dimensional mixing processes which are not included in the axisymmetric model.

Weiss, Jonathan M.↗

NASA NTRS1956

Spark ignition of flowing gases

Research conducted at the NACA Lewis Laboratory on ignition of flowing gases by means of long-duration discharges is summarized and analyzed. Data showing the effect of a flowing combustible mixture on the physical and electrical characteristics of spark discharges and data showing the effects of variables on the spark energy required for ignition that has been developed to predict the effect of many of the gas-stream and spark variables is described and applied to a limited amount of experimental data.

Swett, Clyde C , Jr↗

NASA NTRS1998

Predicting lettuce canopy photosynthesis with statistical and neural network models

An artificial neural network (NN) and a statistical regression model were developed to predict canopy photosynthetic rates (Pn) for 'Waldman's Green' leaf lettuce (Latuca sativa L.). All data used to develop and test the models were collected for crop stands grown hydroponically and under controlled-environment conditions. In the NN and regression models, canopy Pn was predicted as a function of three independent variables: shootzone CO2 concentration (600 to 1500 micromoles mol-1), photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) (600 to 1100 micromoles m-2 s-1), and canopy age (10 to 20 days after planting). The models were used to determine the combinations of CO2 and PPF setpoints required each day to maintain maximum canopy Pn. The statistical model (a third-order polynomial) predicted Pn more accurately than the simple NN (a three-layer, fully connected net). Over an 11-day validation period, average percent difference between predicted and actual Pn was 12.3% and 24.6% for the statistical and NN models, respectively. Both models lost considerable accuracy when used to determine relatively long-range Pn predictions (> or = 6 days into the future).

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2003

Lightning and Other Influences On Tropical Tropospheric Ozone: Empirical Studies of Covariation

Tropical and subtropical tropospheric ozone are important radiatively active species, with particularly large effects in the upper third of the troposphere. Temporal variability of O3 has proved difficult to simulate day by day in process models. Thus, individual roles of lightning, biomass burning, and other pollution in providing precursor NO(x), radicals, and chain carriers (CO, hydrocarbons) remain unquantified by simulation, and it is theoretically reasonable that individual roles are magnified by a joint synergy. We use wavelet analysis and Burg-algorithm maximum entropy spectral analyses to describe time-scales and correlation of ozone with proxies for processes controlling its concentration. Our empirical studies link time variations apparent in several datasets: the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) network stations (Nairobi, Fiji), and auxiliary series with power to explain ozone-determining processes, with some interpretation based on the TTO (Tropical Tropospheric Ozone) product derived from TOMS (the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer). The auxiliary series are The OTD/LIS(Optical Transient Detector/Lightning Imaging Sensor) measurements of the lightning NO(x) source, the OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation)measurement of high-topped clouds, and standard meteorological variables from the United States NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and Data Assimilation Office analyses. Concentrating on equatorial ozone, we compare the statistical evidence on the variability of tropospheric ozone. Important variations occur on approximately two-week, two-month (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and annual scales, and relations with OLR suggest controls associated with continental clouds. Hence we are now using the Lightning Imaging Sensor data set to indicate NO(x) sources. We report initial results defining relative roles of the process mentioned affecting O3 using their covariance properties.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Color visualization for fluid flow prediction

High-resolution raster scan color graphics allow variables to be presented as a continuum, in a color-coded picture that is referenced to a geometry such as a flow field grid or a boundary surface. Software is used to map a scalar variable such as pressure or temperature, defined on a two-dimensional slice of a flow field. The geometric shape is preserved in the resulting picture, and the relative magnitude of the variable is color-coded onto the geometric shape. The primary numerical process for color coding is an efficient search along a raster scan line to locate the quadrilteral block in the grid that bounds each pixel on the line. Tension spline interpolation is performed relative to the grid for specific values of the scalar variable, which is then color coded. When all pixels for the field of view are color-defined, a picture is played back from a memory device onto a television screen.

Smith, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Boundary layers in cataclysmic variables: The HEAO-1 X-ray constraints

The predictions of the boundary layer model for the X-ray emission from novae are summarized. A discrepancy between observations and theory in the X-ray observations is found. Constraints on the nature of the boundary layers in novae, based on the lack of detections of novae in the HEAO-1 soft X-ray survey are provided. Temperature and column densities for optically thick boundary layers in novae are estimated.

Jensen, K. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Boundary layers in cataclysmic variables - The HEAO 1 X-ray constraints

Jensen, K. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Aerodynamic heating on AFE due to nonequilibrium flow with variable entropy at boundary layer edge

A method of predicting the aerobrake aerothermodynamic environment on the NASA Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) vehicle is described. Results of a three dimensional inviscid nonequilibrium solution are used as input to an axisymmetric nonequilibrium boundary layer program to predict AFE convective heating rates. Inviscid flow field properties are obtained from the Euler option of the Viscous Reacting Flow (VRFLO) code at the boundary layer edge. Heating rates on the AFE surface are generated with the Boundary Layer Integral Matrix Procedure (BLIMP) code for a partially catalytic surface composed of Reusable Surface Insulation (RSI) times. The 1864 kg AFE will fly an aerobraking trajectory, simulating return from geosynchronous Earth orbit, with a 75 km perigee and a 10 km/sec entry velocity. Results of this analysis will provide principal investigators and thermal analysts with aeroheating environments to perform experiment and thermal protection system design.

Ting, P. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Computation of ephemerides for long-period variable stars for the Hipparcos mission

In order to predict the luminosities of LPVs observed by Hipparcos, many visual light curves, characterized by irregularly spaced data, were analyzed using original and complementary methods. The obtained power spectra, including amplitudes and phases, are utilized in the computation of the ephemerides. The predictions are regularly checked with observations. In this paper we present the methods and suggest some physical implications that are evoked.

Mennessier, M. O.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Zhou, Jiayu↗

NASA NTRS2020

Prediction Skill of the 2012 U.S. Great Plains Flash Drought in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Models

Flash droughts refer to droughts that develop much more rapidly than normal (i.e., on the order of weeks to a few months). Such droughts can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. We investigated the prediction skill of U.S. flash droughts at subseasonal lead times in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project. An additional comprehensive set of hindcasts with NASA?s GEOSv2.1, a model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. Here we focus on results for the 2012 Great Plains flash drought, noting that the findings based on this event are generally applicable to other U.S. flash droughts. The prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While the skill is limited to less than 2 weeks in most models, it is considerably higher (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-North Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary Rossby waves.

DeAngelis, Anthony M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probability of failure and risk assessment of propulsion structural components

The probabilistic structural analysis method (PSAM) was developed to analyze the effects of fluctuating loads, variable material properties, and uncertain analytical models especially for high performance structures such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine turbopump blades. Risk is calculated after expensive service experience. However, probabilistic structural analysis provides a rational alternative method to quantify uncertainties in the structural performance and durability. NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a probabilistic structural analysis computer code which integrates finite element methods and reliability algorithms, capable to predicting the probability distributions of structural response variables such as stress, displacement, natural frequencies, and buckling loads. This computer code is detailed.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Characterization and Prediction of the SPI Background

The INTEGRAL Spectrometer, like most gamma-ray instruments, is background dominated. Signal-to-background ratios of a few percent are typical. The background is primarily due to interactions of cosmic rays in the instrument and spacecraft. It characteristically varies by +/- 5% on time scales of days. This variation is caused mainly by fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field that modulates the cosmic ray intensity. To achieve the maximum performance from SPI it is essential to have a high quality model of this background that can predict its value to a fraction of a percent. In this poster we characterize the background and its variability, explore various models, and evaluate the accuracy of their predictions.

Teegarden, B. J.↗