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At least 469 records · Page 26

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NASA NTRS1989

PRIME: A bottom-up approach to probabilistic rule development

PRIME is a system to be used by an intelligent machine to allow it to operate in an abstract but uncertain (or stochastic) environment. It maintains a model of the effects of the machine's actions in the form of a rule base, which is induced from experience. This bottom-up approach to rule development allows the model to adapt to changes in the environment. Each rule consists of a condition under which the rule is active, an action, the effect of the action on the environment, and an estimate of the probability of this effect occurring. The effect probabilities are used to model the uncertainty in the environment, permitting multiple possible effects for a single action under a particular set of conditions. The objective of the intelligent machine is to satisfy user-specified goals with maximum probability of success. PRIME fulfills this requirement in two ways: it continuously updates the rule base with the most recent information, to ensure the validity of the model; and it generates plans which have the maximum probability of achieving the goals, based on the probability estimates in the rule base. PRIME is composed of three main processes: exploration, generalization, and planning. In exploration, the machine executes various randomly chosen actions, observes the effects on the environment, and updates the rule base accordingly. This process is used to develop the rule base in simulation, as well as to supplement the current knowledge during normal operation. Generalization is the procedure used to induce general rules from experience, which is encoded in the form of specific rules. These general rules extend the machine's knowledge to situations which have not been encountered yet, thereby increasing the capability of the machine to plan effectively. Planning is the process of constructing an optimal sequence of actions to satisfy a goal, using the rule base to predict the effects of these actions and to determine the probability of success of the plan. The rule representation and many other data structures were specifically chosen to maximize the efficiency of these processes. A simulated environment was designed to test the performance of PRIME. The results of experimentation were largely negative. The main problem was that the domain coverage of the rules was inadequate for the number of rules stored in the rule base, due to redundancies in general rules and numerous rules covering ineffective actions. It was determined that a more efficient generalization, and some form of goal-directed exploration, are necessary in order to solve most of the current deficiencies in PRIME.

Miller, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Robustness Analysis and Optimally Robust Control Design via Sum-of-Squares

A control analysis and design framework is proposed for systems subject to parametric uncertainty. The underlying strategies are based on sum-of-squares (SOS) polynomial analysis and nonlinear optimization to design an optimally robust controller. The approach determines a maximum uncertainty range for which the closed-loop system satisfies a set of stability and performance requirements. These requirements, de ned as inequality constraints on several metrics, are restricted to polynomial functions of the uncertainty. To quantify robustness, SOS analysis is used to prove that the closed-loop system complies with the requirements for a given uncertainty range. The maximum uncertainty range, calculated by assessing a sequence of increasingly larger ranges, serves as a robustness metric for the closed-loop system. To optimize the control design, nonlinear optimization is used to enlarge the maximum uncertainty range by tuning the controller gains. Hence, the resulting controller is optimally robust to parametric uncertainty. This approach balances the robustness margins corresponding to each requirement in order to maximize the aggregate system robustness. The proposed framework is applied to a simple linear short-period aircraft model with uncertain aerodynamic coefficients.

Dorobantu, Andrei↗

NASA NTRS2014

Design and Control of Compliant Tensegrity Robots Through Simulation and Hardware Validation

To better understand the role of tensegrity structures in biological systems and their application to robotics, the Dynamic Tensegrity Robotics Lab at NASA Ames Research Center has developed and validated two different software environments for the analysis, simulation, and design of tensegrity robots. These tools, along with new control methodologies and the modular hardware components developed to validate them, are presented as a system for the design of actuated tensegrity structures. As evidenced from their appearance in many biological systems, tensegrity ("tensile-integrity") structures have unique physical properties which make them ideal for interaction with uncertain environments. Yet these characteristics, such as variable structural compliance, and global multi-path load distribution through the tension network, make design and control of bio-inspired tensegrity robots extremely challenging. This work presents the progress in using these two tools in tackling the design and control challenges. The results of this analysis includes multiple novel control approaches for mobility and terrain interaction of spherical tensegrity structures. The current hardware prototype of a six-bar tensegrity, code-named ReCTeR, is presented in the context of this validation.

Robotics↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Symbiotic System SS73 17 seen with Suzaku

We observed with Suzaku the symbiotic star SS73 17, motivated by the discovery by the INTEGRAL satellite and the Swift BAT survey that it emits hard X-rays. Our observations showed a highly-absorbed X-ray spectrum with NH > loz3 emp2, equivalent to Av > 26, although the source has B magnitude 11.3 and is also bright in UV. The source also shows strong, narrow iron lines including fluorescent Fe K as well as Fe xxv and Fe XXVI. The X-ray spectrum can be fit with a thermal model including an absorption component that partially covers the source. Most of the equivalent width of the iron fluorescent line in this model can be explained as a combination of reprocessing in a dense absorber plus reflection off a white dwarf surface, but it is likely that the continuum is partially seen in reflection as well. Unlike other symbiotic systems that show hard X-ray emission (CH Cyg, RT Cru, T CrB, GX1+4), SS73 17 is not known to have shown nova-like optical variability, X-ray flashes, or pulsations, and has always shown faint soft X-ray emission. As a result, although it is likely a white dwarf, the nature of the compact object in SS73 17 is still uncertain. SS73 17 is probably an extreme example of the recently discovered and relatively small class of hard X-ray emitting symbiotic systems.

Smith, Randall K.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Multivariable control of the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator System

Linear controllers are designed to regulate the end effector of the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS) operating in position hold mode. Design techniques used include H2 and H-infinity optimization. The nonlinear SRMS is linearized by modeling the effects of the significant nonlinearities as uncertain parameters. Each regulator design is evaluated for robust stability using both the small gain theorem with an H-infinity norm and the less conservative mu-analysis test. Regulator designs offer significant improvement over the current system for the nominal plant. Unfortunately, the SRMS model suffers from lightly damped poles with real parametric uncertainty. Under such conditions, the mu-analysis test, which allows for complex perturbations, cannot guarantee robust stability.

Adams, Neil J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Data systems - Optical bus will connect distributed system

The fiber optics buses currently under consideration for the NASA space station program will have data rates of at least 20 Mb/sec. The network interconnection scheme that will eventually be used is, however, uncertain. A NASA-Langley effort on graph networks includes adaptive, fault-tolerant and self-correcting operations. A breadboard program at NASA-Johnson includes evaluations of standard devices, called 'bus interface units', in an adaptive and fault-correcting chordal or concentric ring type of network. Fiber optics would allow an evolution to wavelength modulation techniques in such systems.

Swingle, W. L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗

NASA NTRS1989

Stochastic model of the NASA/MSFC ground facility for large space structures with uncertain parameters: The maximum entropy approach, part 2

A validated technology data base is being developed in the areas of control/structures interaction, deployment dynamics, and system performance for Large Space Structures (LSS). A Ground Facility (GF), in which the dynamics and control systems being considered for LSS applications can be verified, was designed and built. One of the important aspects of the GF is to verify the analytical model for the control system design. The procedure is to describe the control system mathematically as well as possible, then to perform tests on the control system, and finally to factor those results into the mathematical model. The reduction of the order of a higher order control plant was addressed. The computer program was improved for the maximum entropy principle adopted in Hyland's MEOP method. The program was tested against the testing problem. It resulted in a very close match. Two methods of model reduction were examined: Wilson's model reduction method and Hyland's optimal projection (OP) method. Design of a computer program for Hyland's OP method was attempted. Due to the difficulty encountered at the stage where a special matrix factorization technique is needed in order to obtain the required projection matrix, the program was successful up to the finding of the Linear Quadratic Gaussian solution but not beyond. Numerical results along with computer programs which employed ORACLS are presented.

Hsia, Wei Shen↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling

bifacial↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling: Preprint

energy modeling↗

NASA NTRS1983

Tradeoff studies in multiobjective insensitive design of airplane control systems

A computer aided design method for multiobjective parameter-insensitive design of airplane control systems is described. Methods are presented for trading off nominal values of design objectives against sensitivities of the design objectives to parameter uncertainties, together with guidelines for designer utilization of the methods. The methods are illustrated by application to the design of a lateral stability augmentation system for two supersonic flight conditions of the Shuttle Orbiter. Objective functions are conventional handling quality measures and peak magnitudes of control deflections and rates. The uncertain parameters are assumed Gaussian, and numerical approximations of the stochastic behavior of the objectives are described. Results of applying the tradeoff methods to this example show that stochastic-insensitive designs are distinctly different from deterministic multiobjective designs. The main penalty for achieving significant decrease in sensitivity is decreased speed of response for the nominal system.

Schy, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Precision X-ray Timing of RX J0806.3+1527 with CHANDRA: Evidence for Gravitational Radiation from an Ultracompact Binary

RX J0806.3+1527 is a candidate double degenerate binary with possibly the shortest known orbital period. The source shows an $\approx 100 \%$ X-ray intensity modulation at the putative orbital frequency of 3.11 mHz (321.5 s). If the system is a detached, ultracompact binary gravitational radiation should drive spin-up with a magnitude of $\dot\nu \sim 10(exp -16)$ Hi s$(exp -l}$. Efforts to constrain the X-ray frequency evolution to date have met with mixed success, principally due to the sparseness of earlier observations. Here we describe the results of the first phase coherent X-ray monitoring campaign on RX J0806.3+1527 with {\it Chandra) . We obtained a total of 70 ksec of exposure in 6 epochs logarithmically spaced over 320 days. With these data we conclusively show that the X-ray frequency is increasing at a rate of $3.77 \pm\ 0.8 \times l0(exp -16)$ Hz s$(exp -l)$. Using the ephemeris derived from the new data we are able to phase up all the earlier {\it Chandra) and ROSAT data and show they are consistent with a constant $\dot\nu = 3.63 \pm 0.06 \times 10(exp -16)$ Hz s$(exp -1)s over the past decade. This value appears consistent with that recently derived by Israel et al. largely from monitoring of the optical modulation, and is in rough agreement with the solutions reported initially by Hakala et al., based on ground-based optical observations. The large and stable $\dot\nu$ over a decade is consistent with gravitational radiation losses driving the evolution. An intermediate polar (IP) scenario where the observed X-ray period is the spin period of an accreting white dwarf appears less tenable because the observed $\dot\nu$ requires an $\dot m \approx 2 \times 10(exp -8)$ $M-{\odot)$ yr$(exp -l)$, that is much larger than that inferred from the observed X-ray luminosity (although this depends on the uncertain distance and bolometric corrections), and it is difficult to drive such a high $\dot m$ in a binary system with parameters consistent with all the multiwavelength data. If the ultracompact scenario is

Strohmayer, Tod↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Solar limb brightening in submillimeter wavelengths

Differential two-beam scans of the sun in submillimeter wavelengths (350 microns to 1 millimeter) indicate limb brightening approaching 1 percent when the cosine of the angle from the normal equals 0.60. The observations also show considerable chromospheric structure, both in active and quiet regions, but with less relative amplitude than at millimeter and centimeter wavelengths. The limited angular resolution of the observing system, together with photometric errors due to fluctuating atmospheric transparency, make the brightness profile of the extreme limb uncertain. The observed degree of limb brightening is considerably less than that consistent with spherically symmetric model atmospheres based on continuum brightness-temperature measurements. The suppression of limb brightening suggests the existence of irregular granular structure with both horizontal and vertical characteristic sizes of the order of 1500 km. High-resolution images in the wings of the K-line show granular structure of about this horizontal scale.

Lindsey, C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Approximate spatial reasoning

Much of human reasoning is approximate in nature. Formal models of reasoning traditionally try to be precise and reject the fuzziness of concepts in natural use and replace them with non-fuzzy scientific explicata by a process of precisiation. As an alternate to this approach, it has been suggested that rather than regard human reasoning processes as themselves approximating to some more refined and exact logical process that can be carried out with mathematical precision, the essence and power of human reasoning is in its capability to grasp and use inexact concepts directly. This view is supported by the widespread fuzziness of simple everyday terms (e.g., near tall) and the complexity of ordinary tasks (e.g., cleaning a room). Spatial reasoning is an area where humans consistently reason approximately with demonstrably good results. Consider the case of crossing a traffic intersection. We have only an approximate idea of the locations and speeds of various obstacles (e.g., persons and vehicles), but we nevertheless manage to cross such traffic intersections without any harm. The details of our mental processes which enable us to carry out such intricate tasks in such apparently simple manner are not well understood. However, it is that we try to incorporate such approximate reasoning techniques in our computer systems. Approximate spatial reasoning is very important for intelligent mobile agents (e.g., robots), specially for those operating in uncertain or unknown or dynamic domains.

Dutta, Soumitra↗

NASA NTRS1989

Software design with fuzzy requirements (A case study)

The author describes the resource allocation and planning helper (RALPH) scheduling system developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. RALPH addresses the concerns of designing software systems to minimize the need to recode for changes and upgrades; this concern is acute when requirements are uncertain or changing. Determining requirements, understanding the problem, designing for change, and tradeoffs are also discussed.

Werntz, David G.↗