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At least 469 records · Page 26

Computational Characterization and Boundary Condition Models of a Jet Interaction Fluidic Oscillator

Fluidically oscillating jet actuators that generate sweeping jets when supplied with a pressurized fluid have been used to mitigate separation and reduce drag in a range of flow control applications. Their implementation in future flight vehicles would require fundamental understanding and accurate predictive techniques of the physics of their internal flow and jet formation. The present investigations focus on high-fidelity, time-accurate simulations to characterize the flow physics of the actuator in quiescent conditions. An important element of the present simulations is to demonstrate the ability of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver to predict the jet characteristics and provide a basis for the development of improved boundary conditions (BC) without entirely resolving the geometrical features of the fluidic device. The CFD-predicted oscillation frequencies of the engendered jets were found to be in excellent agreement with experiments, even on two-dimensional meshes. The study revealed that three-dimensional simulations are required to capture some of the flow features of the sweeping jet such as the double peak in time-averaged velocity distributions downstream of the actuator’s orifice that were measured in experiments. Furthermore, several approaches for modeling the actuator were implemented and assessed in quiescent conditions. The evaluation of a boundary condition at the device throat, based on the phase-averaged flow variables, provides the basis for devising surface-based boundary conditions. The influence and necessity of including turbulent characteristics as part of the boundary conditions have also been identified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adaptive Framework for Maintenance Scheduling Based on Dynamic Preventive Intervals and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Data-based prognostic methods exploit sensor data to forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial settings to optimize the scheduling of maintenance actions. However, implementing sensors may not be cost-effective or practical for all components. Traditional preventive approaches are not based on sensor data; however, they schedule maintenance at equally spaced intervals, which is not a cost-effective approach since the distribution of the time between failures changes with the degradation state of other parts or changes in working conditions. This study introduces a novel framework comprising two maintenance scheduling strategies. In the absence of sensor data, we propose a novel dynamic preventive policy that adjusts intervention intervals based on the most recent failure data. When sensor data are available, a method for RUL prediction, designated k-LSTM-GFT, is enhanced to dynamically account for RUL prediction uncertainty. The results demonstrate that dynamic preventive maintenance can yield cost reductions of up to 51.8% compared to conventional approaches. The predictive approach optimizes the exploitation of RUL, achieving costs that are only 3–5% higher than the minimum cost achievable while ensuring the safety of critical systems since all of the failures are avoided.

Nunes, Pedro (ORCID:0000000180012172)↗

Self-similar Cosmic-Ray Transport in High-resolution Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence

We study the propagation of cosmic rays (CRs) through a simulation of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence at an unprecedented resolution of 10,240 3 . We drive turbulence that is subsonic and super-Alfvénic, characterized by δB rms /B 0 = 2. The high resolution enables an extended inertial range such that the Alfvén scale l A , where δB(l A ) ≈ B 0 , is well resolved. This allows us to properly capture how the cascade transitions from large amplitudes on large scales to small amplitudes on small scales. We find that sharp bends in the magnetic field are key mediators of particle transport even on small scales via resonant curvature scattering. We further find that particle scattering in the turbulence shows strong hints of self-similarity: (1) the diffusion has a weak energy dependence over almost two decades in particle energy, and (2) the particles’ random walk exhibits a broad power-law distribution of collision times such that the diffusion is dominated by the rarest, long-distance excursions. Our results suggest that large-amplitude MHD turbulence can provide efficient scattering over a wide range of CR energies and may help explain many CR observations above a ∼TeV: the flattening of the B/C spectrum, the hardening of CR primary spectra, and the weak dependence of arrival anisotropy on CR energy.

Kempski, Philipp [Princeton Univ., NJ (United Stat↗

Minimizing Cr-Evaporation from Balance of Plant Components by Utilizing Cost-Effective Alumina-Forming Austenitic Steels

A solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is a clean and efficient energy conversion device. The development of intermediate-temperature SOFCs has made it preferable to use metallic interconnects (MICs) to greatly reduce the cost and significantly increase the efficiency compared to ceramic interconnect materials. However, gaseous chromium species will evaporate from the chromium-containing layer formed on the surface of commonly used MICs and balance of plant (BoP) components. Volatile chromium species have been shown to form solid deposits which poison the cathodes of SOFCs, causing drastic cell performance degradation and thereby limiting commercialization. In order to alleviate the Cr poisoning and achieve long-term high performance of SOFC stacks, various Al2O3-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steels applied at different temperatures are evaluated in this project. Based on our Phase I results (500 h operation), it is shown that on the AFAs, an alumina-based protective layer forms under high temperature that is invulnerable to water vapor effects and suppresses the diffusion of chromium and manganese which can prevent the generation of spinels on the alloy surface. Therefore, 310S, OC4 and OC5 at 800 °C and 625, OC11 and OC11LZ at 900 °C are selected to be tested in the Phase II long-term operation. From the results, we find that besides the lower Cr evaporation rates and better oxidation resistance of AFAs than benchmark alloys after short-term (500 h) operation, AFAs also possess the sturdy and compact alumina layer after a long-term operation (5000 h). A protective oxide layer is of great importance for the long-term high-temperature operation of structural materials. The high-temperature oxidation behavior of AFAs and commercial 310S and 625 alloys in Air + 10% H 2 O at 800 °C and 900 °C is systematically investigated. Severe breakaway oxidation and minor spallation are observed for the 310S and 625 after the long-term operation, while the AFAs show high oxidation resistance. It is found that the formation of a continuous alumina layer could greatly prevent the volatilization of chromium vapors. In addition, the corresponding evolving models are discussed. Chromium evaporation from BoP components in high-temperature environment could severely deteriorate the electrochemical performance of SOFC. Several methods were applied to evaluate the Cr evaporation rates of BoP after 500 h exposure at 800 °C to 900 °C in air with 10% H 2 O. An optimal method was designed to exclude the effect of silicon (Si) deposits from quartz tube and sodium (Na) deposits from the sodium carbonate on the oxidation process and the chemical interaction between Cr gaseous species and alumina tube which could provide further quantitative correlation of the evaporated Cr species quantities and degradation rates of SOFC. Based on the great performance of AFAs after long-term operation, AFAs are assembled with Anode-supported cells (ASC) to investigate the the Cr deposition of anode-supported cell under a constant current density of 0.5 A cm -2 at 800 °C with AFA alloys compared with commercial alloys. In addition, the anodic and cathodic processes are deconvoluted by distribution of relaxation times (DRT) method which are comprehensively discussed. It is found out that the voltage exhibited a slight decrease of 5.09 % and 1.54 % in the presence of OC11 and OC11LZA alloy, respectively. However, a considerable decrease of 22.14 % and 12.06 % was determined in the presence of 310S and 625 alloy, respectively. AFAs possessing the low-cost, low Cr evaporation rates and the high oxidation resistance will make it of great potential to replace the existing BoP components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Statistical Approaches for Pebble Bed Reactor Operations and Safeguards

The design of pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and their method of operation align more closely with statistical approaches used in manufacturing and process control than traditional safeguards statistical approaches. The reason is PBRs will employ a nondestructive assay (NDA) measurement (burnup measurement system [BUMS]) that is part of the fuel handling system supporting discharge decisions in addition to the reactor code which monitor performance. The integration of these two approaches provides the opportunity to monitor reactor performance statistically for both operations and safeguards in ways not achievable using other reactor designs. For light water reactors (LWRs), knowledge about reactor code performance in predicting irradiated special nuclear material (SNM) content historically was only achieved from special measurement campaigns or from fuel reprocessing. Conversely, through statistical comparison of the BUMS with the reactor code-predicted values, PBRs can achieve this in real time. The resulting SNM distribution is an indicator of reactor performance because factors such as transit time and path of the pebble fuel through the reactor determine the plutonium production and uranium depletion. By analyzing the predicted and measured values, opportunities exist to adjust operating parameters, fuel design, and other characteristics to optimize performance and fuel utilization. From a safeguards perspective, this approach also provides the information necessary to validate declared values and evaluate whether the reactor is being operated as expected. This paper outlines statistical approaches for PBRs that can be used to support both operations and safeguards.

Ball, Cory↗

Search for the NΔ resonance in the 𝛾𝑑 → 𝑑𝜋 +𝜋 − reaction

A dibaryon which is an object with baryon number B = 2 has been studied for a long time. Dyson and Xuong classified non-strangeness dibaryon states based on SU(6) symmetries in 1960?s. In the framework, the deuteron is classified as one of the sextet states of dibaryons. Although dibaryon have been an interesting subject of research for a long time, most of the experimental studies up to the early 2000?s were unsuccessful. The CELCIUS/WASA collaboration reported this state via the double-pionic fusion reaction (?= ! 3c0c0) in 2009. Thereafter, the WASA-at-COSY collaboration revealed properties of the isoscaler resonance state via the ?= ! 3c0c0 reaction in 2011. The dibaryon resonance state with isospin ? = 0 and spin ( = 3 thought to be a ?03 which was predicted by Dyson and Xuong at 2.35 GeV?22 with a configuration of ??. The reported mass and width of that state were 2?37 GeV?22 and 0?07 GeV?22, espectively. The mass was ?0?08 GeV?22 smaller than that of 2?, the width was narrower than that of single ?. This surprising result made dibaryon study come back into the limelight. ?12 is one of the dibaryon states classified by Dyson and Xuong with isospin ? = 1, spin ( = 2. This state can be regarded as an s-wave #? resonance. ?12 is an interesting state from the point of view of the possibilities of existence as an internal structure of ?03 and contribution to many-body effects in nuclei. Though there were some experimental clues and theoretical studies of this state, it was unclear whether the obtained experimental results represented a real resonance or not due to the difficulty of separation from kinematical effects. Very recently, the FOREST group at Tohoku University reported a photoproduced isovector dibaryon state at mass of 2.14 GeV?22 in the 3c0 invariant mass spectra of the W3 ! 3c0c0 reaction. The most probable ?% configuration was 2¸ although they didn?t exclude the possibility of ?% = 1¸ or 3?. They separated the dibaryon production process from conventional pion production process for the first time using angular distribution of deuteron. We investigated the W3 ! 3c¸c? reaction for study of a possible #? dibaryon state using a deuterium target at the Research Center for Electron Photon Science, Tohoku University, Japan. In the experiment, ?3 ? 1012 tagged photon beam at energies ranging from 0.8 to 1.1 GeV was impinged to the liquid deuterium target (?520 mg?cm2) and the charged particles in the final state: deuteron, c¸, and c?, were detected by a magnetic spectrometer with a large solid angle named NKS2. NKS2 had capabilities of reconstructing momentum of charged particles, multi-track analysis, and ??c separation. We performed two different analyses named 2-track analysis and 3-track analysis. The 2-track (3-track) analysis was for events in which two (three) particles of 3c¸c? in the final state, including deuteron, were detected by NKS2. In the 3-track and 2-track analysis, ?2000? ?15000 events were identified as the W3 ! 3c¸c? reaction events, respectively. The 2-track analysis with higher statistics was mainly used to derive the cross sections, and the 3-track analysis was used to check the consistency of the 2-track analysis. In this thesis, we have shown the total cross section, the differential cross sections of the W3 ! 3c¸c? reaction in the region of jC j ¡ 0?15 GeV2. This is the world?s first measurement of this reaction in this energy region. Dibaryon resonance structures were observed below the #? threshold in the differential cross section of the invariant mass of 3c?. The mass and width of the structure were consistent with these of ?12 measured by the W3 ! 3c0c0 reaction. The mechanism of the production process was discussed based on the angular distribution of emitted deuteron.

Toyama, Yuichi↗

OCTOKV: An Agile Network-Based Key-Value Storage System with Robust Load Orchestration

In this paper, we propose OctoKV, an innovative network-based key-value storage system. OctoKV addresses the repetitive address translation overhead associated with traditional key-value stores running on file systems on the client side. To mitigate this overhead, we implemented the key-value store on the server side using NVMe-oF and a user-level NVMe driver. In particular, we employed fine-grained resource monitoring and load balancing based on heuristics to optimize I/O performance. OctoKV is deployed on a Linux cluster with Intel SPDK. The extensive evaluation shows that OctoKV achieves lower I/O response times in comparison to traditional approaches where key-value stores run on the client side. Also, the proposed load balancing strategies efficiently enhance I/O response times by equally distributing the workload from overloaded cores to other cores.

Khan, Awais↗

Embedding Fiber Optic Sensors in Stainless Steel using Spark Plasma Sintering for Structural Health Monitoring in Harsh Environments

Embedded fiber optic sensors such as fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) offer a unique route for distributed real-time in-situ imaging of various engineering parameters for numerous purposes. This study advanced the current sensor embedding approaches by exploring a spark plasma sintering (SPS)-assisted technology to embed FBGs in high-temperature structural materials and demonstrated the capability of temperature measurement. In this approach, single-mode FBGs were integrated into stainless steel (SS) 316L components using SPS, followed by the evaluation of the bonding quality between the FBGs and matrix, the optical attenuation of the fibers induced by embedding, and the sensing characters of the FBGs under temperature stimuli. The results demonstrated that superior bonding was achieved between the FBGs and highly-densified SS316L. Examination of the behavior of Bragg gratings validated signal fidelity after embedding. Real-time thermal imaging under temperature cycling using the FBGs demonstrated the effectiveness of the technique for smart materials manufacturing.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Risk Informed Timelines (RIT) v.1.0

Risk Informed Timelines (RIT) is a more modern and holistic method for understanding how access delay timelines are developed and utilized in physical security system evaluations. The software utilizes Bayesian methods to combine subject matter expert judgement and small performance test datasets in a consistent and defensible way. It allows a more holistic view of delay performance that provides distributions of task times and task success probabilities to account for tasks that, if failed, would result in failure of the attack. The RIT methodology is meant to enable security risk managers to begin the transition into more comprehensive delay timeline analysis. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-8294 O

Noel, ToddG.↗

SuperLab 2.0 Showcase: Connecting Five Labs to Tackle Grid Complexity and Unlock Unique Grid Asset Potential

SuperLab 2.0 (5-Lab Demo) is a collaborative, national-scale experiment showcasing the coordination of geographically distributed energy assets in real time. The demonstration integrates 25 physical and digital assets, spanning wind, PV, batteries, electrolyzers, DC fast chargers, microgrid controllers, building automation systems, small modular reactor (SMR), control centers, and gas turbines, across five DOE national laboratories-NLR, INL, NETL, LBNL, and SNL. These assets are unified using Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), a low-latency, high-performance U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) network, and controlled via a centralized energy controller hosted at NLR's ARIES facility. The demonstration validates the ability to stress-test hybrid energy systems under dynamic scenarios to de-risk advanced control strategies for greater resilience and flexibility. SuperLab 2.0 (5-Lab Demo) showcased a major advancement in federated national laboratory collaboration, enabling real-time, cross-laboratory experimentation to coordinate geographically dispersed distributed energy resources (DERs) using various communication protocols and networks. SuperLab 2.0 (5-Lab Demo) built on previous demonstrations conducted between NLR-PNNL and NLR-INL connecting diverse assets including distant protection devices, a SMR simulator, and a high temperature electrolyzer (HTE). Previous demos were based on a single connection between two labs with minimal coordination challenges. The 5-Lab demo with a centralized controller, distributed testbeds across different geographical locations, and use of protocols-based communication represents a scenario closer to real-world grid operations that coordinate resources across a region to meet system needs. This experiment studied how local DER controllers interact with a centralized energy controller during normal and abnormal events to maintain reliability. The SuperLab team across the five labs implemented a notional power system model equivalent of transmission and distribution lines, represented by the data networks interconnecting the labs. Each lab continuously exchanged local parameters (such as P and Q) from its Hardware-In-Loop (CHIL) and Power Hardware-In-Loop (PHIL) assets through centralized energy controller at NLR, enabling real-time interaction and coordination across sites. By leveraging ESnet as the communication backbone, the team successfully operated the distributed assets as a unified power system, with each bus represented by a different laboratory. This setup mirrors how assets interact in real-world power systems across dispersed locations with various protocols and latencies. At each lab site, assets were operated using their own local controllers which were coordinated through an overarching operation and control layer of centralized energy controller, equivalent to how an energy management system (EMS) orchestrates assets across a regional or national grid. SuperLab's federated connectivity utilized a Digital Real-Time Simulators (DRTS)-type gateway to connect Controller Hardware-In-Loop (CHIL) and PHIL assets between labs. To enable this federated connection through ESnet, a deterministic network was established where latency variations were consistent. This consistency allowed the development of digital filters for the power system assets across CHIL and PHIL interfaces to avoid unstable and unreliable grid conditions. This report provides an overview of the cross-laboratory configuration and offers insights into interconnecting geographically distributed research assets to test them as if they were co-located. This experiment represents a step toward linking nine DOE national laboratories, enabling nation-wide simulations that can address utility-driven challenges with grid resilience, flexibility, and modernization.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Supporting Cyber Security of Power Distribution Systems by Detecting Differences Between Real-time Micro-Synchrophasor Measurements and Cyber-Reported SCADA (Final Report)

As modern power grids tend towards greater levels of automation and communication, the challenges of identifying and mitigating vulnerabilities to cyber-attacks are ones that are increasingly demanding attention. Today’s power system has evolved to form the foundational bedrock of modern society, and an attack on this infrastructure could prove disastrous. In this project we were tasked to investigate the use of distribution synchrophasors as an independent isolated sensor network with which we can corroborate, or flag potentially spoofed,Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. We adapted an approach to marry the underlying physical properties of power systems with the network communications used by power systems in order to offer insights unattainable by either data stream isolation. While the concept of intrusion detection systems (IDS) is well understood for monitoring network traffic and traditional IT computing systems, the approach discussed in this report is motivated by several key notions: first, current SCADA communications alone presents an incomplete view of the grid. Second, the power grid, and the equipment controlling it, is grounded by laws of physics. Given this, we leverage high-frequency physical grid measurements to understand the physical condition of the grid, and combine this with SCADA. While high-frequency physical grid measurements and SCADA communication over Internet Protocol (IP) networks are fundamentally disparate information sources, when collectively examined through appropriate lenses, they offer a much more nuanced depiction of the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An implicit solution for Asay foil trajectories generated by separable, sustained-production ejecta source models

We present a simple implicit solution for the time-dependent trajectory of a thin Asay foil ejecta diagnostic for the general case where the impinging ejecta cloud is generated by a source function characterized by an arbitrary (sustained) time dependence and a time-independent (stationary) particle velocity distribution. In the limit that the source function time dependence becomes a delta function, this solution—which is amenable to rapid numerical calculations of arbitrary accuracy—exactly recovers a previously published solution for the special case of instantaneous ejecta production. We also derive simple expressions for the free-surface arrival (catch-up) time as well as the true ejecta areal mass accumulation on the accelerating foil and place bounds on the level of error incurred when applying instant-production mass solutions to a sustained-production trajectory. We demonstrate these solutions with example calculations for hypothetical source functions spanning a wide range of ejecta production durations, velocity distributions, and temporal behaviors. These calculations demonstrate how the foil trajectory is often insensitive to the temporal dependence of the source function, instead being dominated by the velocity distribution. We quantify this insensitivity using a “compatibility score” metric. Under certain conditions, one may capitalize upon this insensitivity to obtain a good approximation of the second integral of the velocity distribution from the observed foil trajectory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

White Rabbit Time Synchronization for Radiation Detector Readout Electronics

As radiation detector arrays in nuclear physics applications become larger and physically more separated, the time synchronization and trigger distribution between many channels of detector readout electronics become more challenging. Clocks and triggers are traditionally distributed through dedicated cabling, but newer methods such as the IEEE 1588 Precision Time Protocol and White Rabbit allow clock synchronization through the exchange of timing messages over Ethernet. Consequently, we report here the use of White Rabbit in a new detector readout module, the Pixie-Net XL. Herein, the White Rabbit core, data capture from multiple digitizing channels, and subsequent pulse processing for pulse height and constant fraction timing are implemented in a Kintex 7 FPGA. The detector data records include White Rabbit time stamps and are transmitted to storage through the White Rabbit core's gigabit Ethernet data path or a slower diagnostic/control link using an embedded Zynq processor. The performance is characterized by time-of-flight style measurements and by time correlation of high energy background events from cosmic showers in detectors separated by longer distances. Software for the Zynq processor can implement "software triggering", for example to limit recording of data to events where a minimum number of channels from multiple modules detect radiation at the same time.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Study of Communication Boundaries of Primal-Dual Based Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS): Preprint

As the coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) becomes more necessary to provide grid services through a distributed energy resources management system (DERMS), studying the communication requirements for successful real-world low-cost implementation becomes increasingly important. Specifically, this paper studies the needed communication time resolutions between the different system components for a primal-dual based DERMS which is a highly-developed DERMS framework. We design a metric to evaluate the functionality of a DERMS with respect to providing grid services. Using numerical simulations based on a real-world feeder in Colorado, we show that the upper bound on the time resolutions is on the order of minutes instead of the previously assumed order of seconds.

communication time resolution↗

Study of Communication Boundaries of Primal-Dual-Based Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS)

As the coordination of distributed energy resources becomes more necessary to provide grid services through a distributed energy resource management system (DERMS), studying the communication requirements for successful real-world, low-cost implementation becomes increasingly important. Specifically, this paper studies the necessary communication time resolutions between the different system components for a primal-dual-based DERMS, a highly developed DERMS framework. We design a metric to evaluate the functionality of a DERMS with respect to providing grid services. Using numerical simulations based on a real-world feeder in Colorado, we show that the upper bound on the time resolutions is on the order of minutes instead of the previously assumed order of seconds.

communication time resolution↗

An Improved Energy Deposition Model in MPACT and Explicit Heat Generation Coupling with CTF

The default energy deposition model in the CASL neutronics code MPACT assumes all fission energy is deposited locally in fuel rods. Furthermore, equilibrium delayed energy release is assumed for both steady-state and transient calculations. These approximations limit the accurate representation of the heat generation distribution in space and its variations over time, which are essential for power distribution and thermal-hydraulic coupling calculations. In this paper, an improved energy deposition model is presented in both the spatial and time domains. Spatially, the energy deposition through fission, neutron capture, and slowing-down reactions are explicitly modeled to account for the heat generation from all regions of a reactor core, and a gamma smearing scheme is developed that utilizes the gamma sources from neutron fission and capture. In the time domain, the delayed energy release is modeled by solving an additional equation of delayed heat emitters, similar to the equation of delayed neutron precursors.To allow the explicit heat generation coupling, the interfaces between MPACT and CTF were updated to transfer separate heat sources for different material regions (fuel, clad, moderator and guide tube). The results show that the distributions of the energy deposition between MPACT and MCNP agree very well for various 2-D assembly and quarter-core problems without TH feedback. The MPACT/CTF coupled calculation for the hot full power quarter-core case exhibited a reduced peak pin power by 2.3% and a reduced peak fuel centerline temperature by 17 K when using the explicit energy deposition and heat transfer. The new model also shows a maximum 100 pcm keff effect on assembly depletion problems and an increased overall energy release by 7% in a PWR reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) problem.

Liu, Yuxuan↗

Study of Communication Boundaries of Primal-Dual Based Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS)

As the coordination of distributed energy re-sources becomes more necessary to provide grid services through a distributed energy resource management system (DERMS), studying the communication requirements for suc-cessful real-world, low-cost implementation becomes increasingly important. Specifically, this paper studies the necessary communication time resolutions between the different system components for a primal-dual-based DERMS, a highly de-veloped DERMS framework. We design a metric to evaluate the functionality of a DERMS with respect to providing grid services. Using numerical simulations based on a real-world feeder in Colorado, we show that the upper bound on the time resolutions is on the order of minutes instead of the previously assumed order of seconds.

communication time resolution↗

Assessing uncertainty in the timing of energy use during cost-optimal distributed energy technology selection and sizing

This paper empirically derives uncertainty ranges in cost-optimal solar PV and storage sizing by comparing results from the REopt Lite optimization platform from metered data and a set of simulated Department of Energy Commercial Reference Building (CRB) profiles at 65 sites. We find load profile shape alone does not explain a site’s optimal configurations (i.e., PV, Storage, PV and Storage, No System). Still, load profile shape does introduce uncertainty to optimal PV and storage capacities. Across all cases where PV is part of an optimal configuration, we find the average ratio of power capacities derived from metered loads to capacities derived from CRB profiles to be 0.97 (and as high as 1463), where 1 would be a perfect match in system size. For storage, the ratio is 1.6 (and as high as 42). We also assess how, in the absence of complete metered data, a CRB profile can be selected that would be expected to yield the most similar solar PV and storage capacities. From those metrics that can be available from billing data (i.e., peak demand, monthly load totals), we find that uncertainty is most reduced by selecting the CRB’s with an annual peak occurring at the most similar time, or those with the lowest average root mean square error (RMSE) among monthly peak loads. This research can help improve the implementation and interpretation of results derived from simulated load profiles and is an important next step in advancing smart grid solutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗