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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Morphology and particle size (MaPS) exercise: testing the applications of image analysis and morphology descriptions for nuclear forensics

Image analysis techniques have been applied and shown to be a valuable tool in nuclear forensics analysis. The interlaboratory exercise reported here has tested quantitative and qualitative approaches for characterizing nuclear materials. Particle size, surface features and morphology descriptions were compared by four laboratories on a common image set generated by Scanning Electron Microscopy and Digital Light Microscopy. Quantitative analysis of the image sets through the Morphological Analysis for MAterials software highlighted the strength of image analysis, but also that the application of the software alone can introduce significant bias in the analysis. Qualitative morphology descriptions following the process outlined by Tamasi et al. (J Radioanal Nuclear Chem 307:1611–1619, 2015) were compared with a discussion on the robustness and reproducibility of the results. Finally, future work should continue to focus on proficiency and standardization of image analysis through continued exercises within the extended nuclear forensics community.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks

The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential benefits and optimization of cool-coated office buildings: A case study in Chongqing, China

Increasing envelope facet albedos considerably reduces solar heat gain, thus yielding building cooling energy savings. Few studies have explored the potential benefits of utilizing cool coatings on building envelopes (“cool-coated buildings”) based on life-cycle cost analysis. A holistic approach integrating the field testing, building energy simulation, and a 20-year life-cycle-based optimization was developed to explore cool-coated building performance and the maximum net savings of optimal building envelope retrofit and design. Experimental results showed that applying cool coatings to a west wall of an office building in Chongqing, China reduced its exterior surface temperature by up to 9.3 °C in summer. Additionally, simulation results showed that in Chongqing, making the roof and walls cool could reduce annual HVAC electricity use by up to 11.9% in old buildings (with poorly insulated envelopes) and up to 5.9% in new buildings. Retrofitting old buildings with a cool roof provided the net savings per modified area with present values up to 42.8 CNY/m2; retrofitting a new building with a cool roof or cool walls was not cost-effective. Optimizing both envelope insulation and envelope albedo can achieve 5.6 times the net savings of optimizing the insulation only, and 1.6 times that of optimizing albedo only.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seismic monitoring of CO 2 geosequestration using multi-well 4D DAS VSP: Stage 3 of the CO2CRC Otway project

An important part of any CO 2 geosequestration project is to ensure CO 2 containment and conformance in the subsurface. This is generally done by implementing a comprehensive, risk-based Measurement, Monitoring and Verification plan, a key element of which is active time-lapse seismic monitoring. However, high cost and environmental impact of the standard surface seismic monitoring dictate the need for a cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternative. An opportunity to develop such method emerges with advances in distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technology, which turns an optical fibre into a seismic sensor with dense spatial sampling. DAS can be permanently deployed in multiple wells across the geosequestration site providing a robust and non-intrusive network of seismic receivers. This approach was developed and tested in the CO2CRC Otway project, where injection of 15 kt of CO 2 at 1.5 km depth was monitored with a 4D vertical seismic profiling (VSP) using five borehole DAS arrays and mobile vibroseis sources. The 4D DAS VSP in each of the five wells provides broadly consistent images of the CO 2 plume with some differences due to different illumination of the target horizon, lateral variation of velocities, and seismic anisotropy. When the newly injected CO 2 reaches a CO 2 plume created as a result of an earlier injection into the same formation ~600 m updip, 4D DAS VSP shows a change in reflectivity in that area and beyond. Furthermore, this shows a potential of 4D DAS VSP for monitoring gas injection into gas-saturated reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the implementation of dislocation reactions in continuum dislocation dynamics modeling of mesoscale plasticity

The continuum dislocation dynamics framework for mesoscale plasticity is intended to capture the dislocation density evolution and the deformation of crystals when subjected to mechanical loading. It does so by solving a set of transport equations for dislocations concurrently with crystal mechanics equations, with the latter being cast in the form of an eigenstrain problem. Incorporating dislocation reactions in the dislocation transport equations is essential for making such continuum dislocation dynamics predictive. A formulation is proposed to incorporate dislocation reactions in the transport equations of the vector density-based continuum dislocation dynamics. This formulation aims to rigorously enforce dislocation line continuity using the concept of virtual dislocations that close all dislocation loops involved in cross slip, annihilation, and glissile and sessile junction reactions. The addition of virtual dislocations enables us to accurately enforce the divergence free condition upon the numerical solution of the dislocation transport equations for all slip systems individually. A set of tests were performed to illustrate the accuracy of the formulation and the solution of the transport equations within the vector density-based continuum dislocation dynamics. Comparing the results from these tests with an earlier approach in which the divergence free constraint was enforced on the total dislocation density tensor or the sum of two densities when only cross slip is considered shows that the new approach yields highly accurate results. Bulk simulations were performed for a face centered cubic crystal based on the new formulation and the results were compared with discrete dislocation dynamics predictions of the same. The microstructural features obtained from continuum dislocation dynamics were also analyzed with reference to relevant experimental observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fission product distribution in irradiated safety-tested and as-irradiated AGR-2 TRISO particles

In this work, two tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated nuclear fuel particles were examined by electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) as part of the Advanced Gas Reactor program. The compacts’ average irradiation temperatures ranged from approximately 1260 to 1290 °C. One particle was examined in the as-irradiated condition, while the other was subject to 1600 °C post-irradiation safety testing. This study was undertaken to test a newly-developed EPMA technique to determine fission product masses in TRISO particles on a layer-by-layer basis, and to compare fission product distributions between an as-irradiated and safety-tested particle. Fission product concentration profiles were collected along two radii in each particle, with measured concentrations used to compute the fission product mass in each TRISO particle layer. These measured masses were then compared to those predicted from ORIGEN modeling calculations. Data collected from these measurements show that for these two particles, masses determined via EPMA were within ± 20% of the calculated masses for the rare-earth elements, Mo, Zr, Cs, I, and Pd. Elements that tend to be less homogeneously distributed include Sr, Te, Eu, Ag, and possibly Ba. Measured Ag masses differed by more than 40% from the calculated mass. Lanthanides other than Eu remain primarily within the fuel kernel in the as-irradiated particle but in the safety-tested particle these element masses were divided approximately equally between the kernel and kernel periphery. In both particles, the majority of Sr and Eu accumulated in the carbon-rich kernel periphery, although in the safety-tested particle, Sr and Eu accumulated farther from the fuel kernel than occurred with irradiation alone. A greater mass fraction of mobile elements, such as Cs and I accumulated in the buffer and IPyC in the safety-tested particle as compared to the as-irradiated particle. When fully developed and tested, this mass balance approach to TRISO particle analysis has the potential to provide insight into fuel behavior.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Discerning the effect of various irradiation modes on the corrosion of Zircaloy-4

Using proton irradiation, this study investigates the individual influence of several factors on the corrosion kinetics of Zircaloy-4 in a hydrogenated water environment simulating a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Using both simultaneous irradiation-corrosion and autoclave corrosion, we separately examine: (i) the effect of pre-irradiation on modifying the structure of the material, (ii) the impact of irradiation on creating defects in the growing oxide layer during corrosion, and (iii) the influence of irradiation on increasing the corrosion potential through radiolysis during corrosion. To replicate neutron-irradiated microstructure, two proton pre-irradiation schedules were employed: Schedule 1 (isothermal irradiation at 350 °C to 5 dpa) to simulate high-temperature PWR conditions, and Schedule 2 (two-step process: irradiation to 2.5 dpa at -10 °C followed by 2.5 dpa at 350 °C) to simulate lower temperature PWR and Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) conditions. Long-term autoclave corrosion testing over 360 days at 320 °C revealed no significant difference between unirradiated samples and those pre-irradiated according to either schedule, with all samples exhibiting sub-cubic kinetics within the pre-transition regime. Irradiated samples underwent Simultaneous Irradiation Corrosion (SIC) tests, corroding in 320 °C water while being irradiated with protons. Corrosion was found to accelerate in all SIC-tested samples relative to autoclave conditions, with the greatest increase observed in non-pre-irradiated samples. Pre-irradiation with either schedule resulted in a slower corrosion rate compared to non-pre-irradiated regions under SIC conditions. The degree of radiolysis observed in the SIC tests surpassed typical PWR conditions, approaching levels found in BWRs. Radiolysis products were identified as the primary contributors to accelerated corrosion, corroborated by radiolysis bar tests. Furthermore, these findings underscore the intricate interactions between irradiation, corrosion, and water chemistry in determining Zircaloy-4 corrosion kinetics within nuclear reactor environments.

Pressurized Water Reactor↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping foliar photosynthetic capacity in sub-tropical and tropical forests with UAS-based imaging spectroscopy: Scaling from leaf to canopy

Accurate understanding of the variability in foliar physiological traits across landscapes is critical to improve parameterization and evaluation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that seek to represent the response of terrestrial ecosystems to a changing climate. Numerous studies suggest imaging spectroscopy can characterize foliar biochemical and morphological traits at the canopy scale, but there is only limited evidence for retrieving canopy photosynthetic capacity (e.g., maximum carboxylation rate, V c,max and maximum electron transport rate, J max ). Moreover, the effect of canopy structure within forest communities on scaling up spectra-trait relationships from leaf to canopy level is not well known. To advance the spectra-trait approach and enable the estimation of key traits using remote sensing, we collected imaging spectroscopy data from an Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) platform over two forest sites in China (a subtropical forest in Mt. Dinghu and a tropical rainforest in Xishuangbanna). At these sites, we also collected ground measurements of leaf spectra and traits, including biochemical (leaf nitrogen, phosphorus, chlorophyll, and water content), morphological (leaf mass per area, LMA) and physiological (V c,max25 and J max25 ) traits (n=135 tree-crowns from 42 species across two sites). Using a partial least-squares regression (PLSR) approach, we built and tested spectra-trait models with repeated cross-validation. The spectral models developed with leaf spectra were directly transferred to canopy spectra to evaluate the effect of canopy structure. Here we further applied canopy spectral models to map these traits at individual tree-crown scale. The results demonstrate that (1) UAS-based canopy spectra can be used to estimate V c,max (R 2 =0.55, nRMSE=11.79%), Jmax (R 2 =0.54, nRMSE=12.34%), and five additional foliar traits (R 2 =0.38-0.60, nRMSE=10.11-13.56%) at the tree-crown scale with demonstrated generalizability across two sites; (2) canopy structure strongly affects the spectratrait relationships from leaf to canopy level, but the effects vary considerably across foliar traits and cannot be well captured by the 4SAIL canopy radiative transfer model. UAS-based imaging spectroscopy maps large variability in all foliar traits (including physiological traits) with spatially explicit information, reproducing the field-observed inter- and intra-specific variations. These results demonstrate the capability of using UAS-based imaging spectroscopy for characterizing the variability of foliar physiological traits at individual tree-crown scale over forest landscapes and highlight the similar generalizability but different biophysical mechanisms underlying spectra-trait relationships at leaf and canopy levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A data-driven method for modelling dissipation rates in stratified turbulence

We present a deep probabilistic convolutional neural network (PCNN) model for predicting local values of small-scale mixing properties in stratified turbulent flows, namely the dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and density variance, $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ . Inputs to the PCNN are vertical columns of velocity and density gradients, motivated by data typically available from microstructure profilers in the ocean. The architecture is designed to enable the model to capture several characteristic features of stratified turbulence, in particular the dependence of small-scale isotropy on the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_b:=\varepsilon /(\nu N^2)$ , where $\nu$ is the kinematic viscosity and $N$ is the background buoyancy frequency, the correlation between suitably locally averaged density gradients and turbulence intensity and the importance of capturing the tails of the probability distribution functions of values of dissipation. Empirically modified versions of commonly used isotropic models for $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ that depend only on vertical derivatives of density and velocity are proposed based on the asymptotic regimes $Re_b\ll 1$ and $Re_b\gg 1$ , and serve as an instructive benchmark for comparison with the data-driven approach. When trained and tested on a simulation of stratified decaying turbulence which accesses a range of turbulent regimes (associated with differing values of $Re_b$ ), the PCNN outperforms assumptions of isotropy significantly as $Re_b$ decreases, and additionally demonstrates improvements over the fitted empirical models. A differential sensitivity analysis of the PCNN facilitates a comparison with the theoretical models and provides a physical interpretation of the features enabling it to make improved predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamics of order and randomness in dopant distributions inferred from atomically resolved imaging

Abstract Exploration of structure-property relationships as a function of dopant concentration is commonly based on mean field theories for solid solutions. However, such theories that work well for semiconductors tend to fail in materials with strong correlations, either in electronic behavior or chemical segregation. In these cases, the details of atomic arrangements are generally not explored and analyzed. The knowledge of the generative physics and chemistry of the material can obviate this problem, since defect configuration libraries as stochastic representation of atomic level structures can be generated, or parameters of mesoscopic thermodynamic models can be derived. To obtain such information for improved predictions, we use data from atomically resolved microscopic images that visualize complex structural correlations within the system and translate them into statistical mechanical models of structure formation. Given the significant uncertainties about the microscopic aspects of the material’s processing history along with the limited number of available images, we combine model optimization techniques with the principles of statistical hypothesis testing. We demonstrate the approach on data from a series of atomically-resolved scanning transmission electron microscopy images of Mo x Re 1- x S 2 at varying ratios of Mo/Re stoichiometries, for which we propose an effective interaction model that is then used to generate atomic configurations and make testable predictions at a range of concentrations and formation temperatures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep-learning-enabled Bayesian inference of fuel magnetization in magnetized liner inertial fusion

Fuel magnetization in magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) experiments improves charged burn product confinement, reducing requirements on fuel areal density and pressure to achieve self-heating. By elongating the path length of 1.01 MeV tritons produced in a pure deuterium fusion plasma, magnetization enhances the probability for deuterium–tritium reactions producing 11.8-17.1 MeV neutrons. Nuclear diagnostics thus enable a sensitive probe of magnetization. Characterization of magnetization, including uncertainty quantification, is crucial for understanding the physics governing target performance in MIF platforms, such as magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments conducted at Sandia National Laboratories, Z-facility. We demonstrate a deep-learned surrogate of a physics-based model of nuclear measurements. A single model evaluation is reduced from O ( 10 – 100 ) (10–100) CPU hours on a high-performance computing cluster down to O ( 10 – 100 ) (10) ms on a laptop. This enables a Bayesian inference of magnetization, rigorously accounting for uncertainties from surrogate modeling and noisy nuclear measurements. The approach is validated by testing on synthetic data and comparing with a previous study. We analyze a series of MagLIF experiments systematically varying preheat, resulting in the first ever systematic experimental study of magnetic confinement properties of the fuel plasma as a function of fundamental inputs on any neutron-producing MIF platform. We demonstrate that magnetization decreases from B R ∼ 0.2 ~0.5 to B R ∼ 0.2 ~0.2 MG cm as laser preheat energy deposited increases from E preheat ∼ 460 ~460 J to E preheat ∼ 460 ~1.4 kJ. This trend is consistent with 2D LASNEX simulations showing Nernst advection of the magnetic field out of the hot fuel and diffusion into the target liner.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular dipole moment learning via rotationally equivariant derivative kernels in molecular-orbital-based machine learning

This study extends the accurate and transferable molecular-orbital-based machine learning (MOB-ML) approach to modeling the contribution of electron correlation to dipole moments at the cost of Hartree–Fock computations. A MOB pairwise decomposition of the correlation part of the dipole moment is applied, and these pair dipole moments could be further regressed as a universal function of MOs. The dipole MOB features consist of the energy MOB features and their responses to electric fields. An interpretable and rotationally equivariant derivative kernel for Gaussian process regression (GPR) is introduced to learn the dipole moment more efficiently. The proposed problem setup, feature design, and ML algorithm are shown to provide highly accurate models for both dipole moments and energies on water and 14 small molecules. To demonstrate the ability of MOB-ML to function as generalized density-matrix functionals for molecular dipole moments and energies of organic molecules, we further apply the proposed MOB-ML approach to train and test the molecules from the QM9 dataset. The application of local scalable GPR with Gaussian mixture model unsupervised clustering GPR scales up MOB-ML to a large-data regime while retaining the prediction accuracy. In addition, compared with the literature results, MOB-ML provides the best test mean absolute errors of 4.21 mD and 0.045 kcal/mol for dipole moment and energy models, respectively, when training on 110 000 QM9 molecules. The excellent transferability of the resulting QM9 models is also illustrated by the accurate predictions for four different series of peptides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of tearing mode stability near ideal stability boundaries via asymptotic matching techniques

A number of improvements to the TJ toroidal tearing mode code [Fitzpatrick, Phys. Plasmas 31, 102507 (2024)] are documented. The TJ code is also successfully benchmarked against the STRIDE toroidal tearing mode code [Glasser and Koleman, Phys. Plasmas 25, 082502 (2018)]. Finally, the new capabilities of the TJ code are used to investigate the stability of tearing modes in tokamak plasmas as an ideal stability boundary, associated with either an external-kink or an internal-kink mode, is approached. All elements of the tearing stability matrix are found to tend to infinity as an ideal stability boundary is approached. Furthermore, as the stability boundary is approached, the eigenfunctions of the various tearing modes in the plasma, which are decoupled by sheared plasma rotation, are all found to morph into that of the marginally stable ideal mode. However, the growth-rates and real frequencies of the various “ideal-tearing-modes” are different from one another. Moreover, the growth-rate of the ideal-tearing-mode that reconnects magnetic flux at the rational surface that lies closest to the edge of the plasma is the one that tends to a very large value as the stability boundary is approached. A relatively simple test for ideal stability that is capable of detecting stability boundaries for external-kink and internal-kink modes, even in the presence of a very close-fitting ideal wall, is described and verified.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved deep learning prediction of antigen–antibody interactions

Identifying antibodies that neutralize specific antigens is crucial for developing effective immunotherapies, but this task remains challenging for many target antigens. The rise of deep learning–based computational approaches presents a promising avenue to address this challenge. Here, we assess the performance of a deep learning approach through two benchmark tests aimed at predicting antibodies for the receptor-binding domain of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein. Three different strategies for constructing input sequence alignments are employed for predicting structural models of antigen–antibody complexes. In our initial testing set, which comprises known experimental structures, these strategies collectively yield a significant top-ranked prediction for 61% of cases and a success rate of 47%. Notably, one strategy that utilizes the sequences of known antigen binders outperforms the other two, achieving a precision of 90% in a subsequent test set of ~1,000 antibodies, balanced between true and control antibodies for the antigen, albeit with a lower recall of 25%. Our results underscore the potential of integrating deep learning methods with single B cell sequencing techniques to enhance the prediction accuracy of antigen–antibody interactions.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stellar population models based on the SDSS-IV MaStar library of stellar spectra – I. Intermediate-age/old models

ABSTRACT We use the first release of the SDSS/MaStar stellar library comprising ∼9000, high S/N spectra, to calculate integrated spectra of stellar population models. The models extend over the wavelength range 0.36–1.03 µm and share the same spectral resolution ($R\sim 1800$) and flux calibration as the SDSS-IV/MaNGA galaxy data. The parameter space covered by the stellar spectra collected thus far allows the calculation of models with ages and chemical composition in the range $\rm {\mathit{ t}\gt 200 \,Myr, -2 \lt = [Z/H] \lt = + 0.35}$, which will be extended as MaStar proceeds. Notably, the models include spectra for dwarf main-sequence stars close to the core H-burning limit, as well as spectra for cold, metal-rich giants. Both stellar types are crucial for modelling λ > 0.7 µm absorption spectra. Moreover, a better parameter coverage at low metallicity allows the calculation of models as young as 500 Myr and the full account of the blue horizontal branch phase of old populations. We present models adopting two independent sets of stellar parameters (Teff, log g, [Z/H]). In a novel approach, their reliability is tested ‘on the fly’ using the stellar population models themselves. We perform tests with Milky Way and Magellanic Clouds globular clusters, finding that the new models recover their ages and metallicities remarkably well, with systematics as low as a few per cent for homogeneous calibration sets. We also fit a MaNGA galaxy spectrum, finding residuals of the order of a few per cent comparable to the state-of-art models, but now over a wider wavelength range.

Maraston, C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Online Parameter Estimation Methods for Adaptive Cruise Control Systems

Modeling Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) vehicles enables the understanding of the impact of these vehicles on traffic flow. In this work, two online methods are used to provide real time system identification of ACC enabled vehicles. The first technique is a recursive least squares (RLS) approach, while the second method solves a nonlinear joint state and parameter estimation problem via particle filtering (PF). We provide a parameter identifiability analysis for both methods to analytically show that the model parameters are not identifiable using equilibrium driving. The accuracy and computational runtime of the online methods are compared to a commonly used offline simulation-based optimization (i.e., batch optimization) approach. The methods are tested on synthetic data as well as on empirical data collected directly from a 2019 model year ACC vehicle using data from sensors that are part of the stock ACC system. The online methods are scalable and provide comparable accuracy to the batch method. RLS runs in real time and is two orders of magnitude faster than the batch method for modest sized (e.g., 15 min) datasets. The particle filter also runs in real- time, and is also suitable in streaming applications in which the datasets can grow arbitrarily large.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operating Dynamic Reserve Dimensioning Using Probabilistic Forecasts

The rapid integration of variable energy sources (VRES) into power grids increases variability and uncertainty of the net demand, making the power system operation challenging. Operating reserve is used by system operators to manage and hedge against such variability and uncertainty. Traditionally, reserve requirements are determined by rules-of-thumb (static reserve requirements, e.g., NERC Reliability Standards), and more recently, dynamic reserve requirements from tools and methods which are in the adoption process (e.g., DynADOR, DRD, and RESERVE, among others). While these methods/tools significantly improve the static rule-of-thumb approaches, they rely exclusively on deterministic data (i.e., best guess only). Consequently, these methods disregard the probabilistic uncertainty thresholds associated with specific days and their weather conditions (i.e., best guess plus probabilistic uncertainty). This work presents practical approaches to determine the operating reserve requirements leveraging the wealth information from probabilistic forecasts. Proposed approaches are validated and tested using actual data from the CAISO system. Furthermore, results show the benefits in terms of risk reduction of considering the probabilistic forecast information into the dimensioning process of operating reserve requirements.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the accuracy of time-fraction and ductility exhaustion approaches for creep-fatigue damage prediction through feature-test validation

Determining creep-fatigue damage formation is critical for elevated temperature components integrity. This study evaluates creep-fatigue assessments with emphasis on differences between creep damage models. Evaluated are the time-fraction model and the classical and stress-modified ductility exhaustion creep damage models. This work extends the domain of stress-modified ductility exhaustion models by introducing and validating such formalism to Ni-based alloys. The fidelity of the assessments was benchmarked against uniaxial creep-fatigue and multiaxial feature tests of Alloy 617. For uniaxial specimens, best estimate predictions rank ductility exhaustion as the most accurate and precise and time-fraction as markedly conservative. For feature tests, ductility exhaustion predictions are within < 4.0 times difference, whereas time-fraction underpredicts life by factors of 7–14. The observations suggest ductility exhaustion models as alternative to time-fraction models in design codes for situations requiring characterization of the design margin. Further work in employing such models to assess other relevant phenomena (e.g., stress relaxation cracking) is discussed.

creep-fatigue↗