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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation of Lift plus Cruise Vehicle Models to Define a Full-Scale Crash Test Campaign

A series of dynamic simulations were completed on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA) Lift plus Cruise (LPC) concept electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) vehicle in preparation for an anticipated future full-scale crash-test campaign. The crash test campaign is envisioned as a data gathering exercise with an intent generating full-scale test data to inform eVTOL crashworthiness regulations, evaluate the use of energy absorbing concepts within vehicle design, and validate finite element modeling techniques used in crashworthiness predictions. This report discusses the two main objectives for the simulation efforts: the development of a structural cabin section, and a series of analyses utilized to determine the sensitivities of impact variables. A structural cabin section was created based from previous research efforts involving the LPC vehicle utilized for occupant response. To refine for the structural modifications, the wing and tail sections of the vehicle were removed. The tail was replaced with a representative mass at the aft of the fuselage. The overhead wing was replaced with a beam structure sized to approximate the bending response of the wing under crash loading conditions. The beam structure was fixed to the fuselage similar to the original Wingbox design in order to properly capture effects of this overhead mass on survivable volume within the vehicle. The fidelity of the fuselage frame structure within the FEM was increased to quantify the effect of frame sizing on structural response. From this an eVTOL test article design was developed, which satisfied basic crashworthiness requirements, was reconfigurable to assess the effect of various design avenues on structural response and optimized to improve manufacturability. The impact variable sensitivity results primarily show the orientation of the impact vector played a major role in types of injuries sustained, along with their severity. The vehicle was largely insensitive to small variations in pitch attitude but highly sensitive to both impact surface at certain angles and landing gear location.

eVTOL↗
NASA NTRS1988

The temperature structure, mass, and energy flow in the corona and inner solar wind

Remote-sensing and in situ data are used to constrain a radiative energy balance model in order to study the radial variations of coronal temperatures, densities, and outflow speeds in several types of coronal holes and in an unstructured quiet region of the corona. A one-fluid solar wind model is used which takes into account the effects of radiative and inward conductive losses in the low corona and the chromospheric-coronal transition region. The results show that the total nonradiative energy input in magnetically open coronal regions is 5 + or - 10 to the 5th ergs/sq cm, and that most of the energy heating the coronal plasma is dissipated within 2 solar radii of the solar surface.

Withbroe, George L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pore-Scale Transport Effects in Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction on Gold via Coupled Microkinetic-Transport Modeling

A pore-resolved modeling framework is developed to quantify how pore-scale transport affects the intrinsic microkinetics of CO 2 -to-CO on Au. A DFT-informed microkinetic model is coupled self-consistently to a Generalized-Modified Poisson–Nernst–Planck (GMPNP) transport description in a single, electrolyte-filled cylindrical pore, allowing local concentrations and potential to feed back into site-specific reaction rates. FIB-SEM is used to determine pore sizes within realistic electrode materials. Across pore diameters, d p = 10–6000 nm, the surface-averaged CO 2 reduction rate is systematically reduced relative to the ideal microkinetic baseline where mass transport is not accounted for; the effectiveness factor 𝜂 𝑠,CO 2 , which quantifies this ratio, decreases rapidly at more negative potentials and is about 1% near −1.0 V vs SHE due to reactant depletion. Spatial maps reveal pore-bulk alkalization that emerges at higher cathodic bias, with a small, near-wall pH dip due to electrostatic repulsion of hydroxide at the cathode interface. For a fixed aspect ratio L p /d p , narrower pores exhibit larger 𝜂 𝑠,CO 2 by shortening diffusion paths, whereas variations in the aspect ratio L p /d p play a secondary role. A dimensionless analysis (surface/bulk Damköhler numbers) delineates operating regimes. In conclusion, this work offers a concept for incorporating microkinetic models into homogenized porous-electrode models through effectiveness factors and pore-size distribution.

Au-catalyst↗
NASA NTRS1995

Frequencies and Characteristics of Global Oceanic Precipitation from Shipboard Present-Weather Reports

Ship reports of present weather obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set are analyzed for the period 1958-91 in order to elucidate regional and seasonal variations in the climatological frequency, phase, intensity, and character of oceanic precipitation. Specific findings of note include the following: 1) The frequency of thunderstorm reports, relative to all precipitation reports, is a strong function of location, with thunderstorm activity being favored within 1000-3000 km of major tropical and subtropical land masses, while being quite rare at other locations, even within the intertropical convergence zone. 2) The latitudinal frequency of precipitation over the southern oceans increases steadily toward the Antarctic continent and shows relatively little seasonal variation. The frequency of convective activity, however, shows considerable seasonal variability, with sharp winter maxima occurring near 38 deg. latitude in both hemispheres. 3) Drizzle is the preferred form of precipitation in a number of regions, most of which coincide with known regions of persistent marine stratus and stratocumulus in the subtropical highs. Less well documented is the high relative frequency of drizzle in the vicinity of the equatorial sea surface temperature front in the eastern Pacific. 4) Regional differences in the temporal scale of precipitation events (e.g., transient showers versus steady precipitation) are clearly depicted by way of the ratio of the frequency of precipitation at the observation time to the frequency of all precipitation reports, including precipitation during the previous hour. The results of this study suggest that many current satellite rainfall estimation techniques may substantially underestimate the fractional coverage or frequency of precipitation poleward of 50 deg. latitude and in the subtropical dry zones. They also draw attention to the need to carefully account for regional differences in the physical and spatial properties of rainfall when developing calibration relationships for satellite algorithms.

Petty, Grant W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

High-Temperature Superconductive Cabling Investigated for Space Solar Power Satellites

NASA has been directed by Congress to take a fresh look at the Space Solar Power (SSP) concept that was studied by the Department of Energy and NASA about 20 years ago. To summarize, the concept involves (1) collecting solar energy and converting it to electrical energy via photovoltaic arrays on satellites in Earth orbit, (2) conducting the electricity to the microwave transmitting portion of the satellite, and (3) transmitting the power via microwave transmitters (or possibly via lasers) to ground power station antennas located on the surface of the Earth. One Sun Tower SSP satellite concept is illustrated here. This figure shows many photovoltaic arrays attached to a "backbone" that conducts electricity down to a wireless transmitter, which is pointed toward the Earth. Other variations on this concept use multiple backbones to reduce the overall length of the satellite structure. In addition, non-Sun-Tower concepts are being considered. The objective of the work reported here was to determine the benefits to the SSP concept of using high-temperature superconductors (HTS) to conduct the electricity from the photovoltaic arrays to the wireless power transmitters. Possible benefits are, for example, reduced mass, improved efficiency, and improved reliability. Dr. James Powell of Plus Ultra Technologies, Inc., of Stony Brook, New York, is conducting the study, and it is being managed by the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field via a task-order contract through Scientific Applications International Corp. (SAIC).

Tew, Roy C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Visualizing the interplay of Dirac mass gap and magnetism at nanoscale in intrinsic magnetic topological insulators

In intrinsic magnetic topological insulators, Dirac surface-state gaps are prerequisites for quantum anomalous Hall and axion insulating states. Unambiguous experimental identification of these gaps has proved to be a challenge, however. Here, we use molecular beam epitaxy to grow intrinsic MnBi 2 Te 4 thin films. Using scanning tunneling microscopy/spectroscopy, we directly visualize the Dirac mass gap and its disappearance below and above the magnetic order temperature. We further reveal the interplay of Dirac mass gaps and local magnetic defects. We find that, in high defect regions, the Dirac mass gap collapses. Ab initio and coupled Dirac cone model calculations provide insight into the microscopic origin of the correlation between defect density and spatial gap variations. Finally, this work provides unambiguous identification of the Dirac mass gap in MnBi 2 Te 4 and, by revealing the microscopic origin of its gap variation, establishes a material design principle for realizing exotic states in intrinsic magnetic topological insulators.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1995

Dynamics of Vapour Bubbles in Nucleate Boiling: Basic Equations of Bubble Evolution - 1

We consider the behaviour of a vapour bubble formed at a nucleation site on a heated horizontal wall. There is no forced convection of an ambient liquid, and the bubble is presumably separated from the wall by a thin liquid microlayer. The energy conservation law results in a variational equation for the mechanical energy of the whole system consisting of the bubble and liquid. It leads to a set of two strongly nonlinear equations which govern bubble expansion and motion of its centre of mass. A supplementary equation to find out the vapour temperature follows from consideration of heat transfer to the bubble, both from the bulk of surrounding liquid and through the microlayer. The average thickness of the microlayer is shown to increase monotonously with time as the bubble meniscus spreads along the wall. Bubble expansion is driven by the pressure head between vapour inside and liquid far away from the bubble, with due allowance for surface tension and gravity effects. It is resisted by inertia of liquid being placed into motion as the bubble grows. The inertia originates also a force that presses the bubble to the wall. This force is counteracted by the buoyancy and an effective surface tension force that tends to transform the bubble into a sphere. The analysis brings about quite a new formulation of the familiar problem of bubble growth and detachment under conditions of nucleate pool boiling.

Buyevich, Yu A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Turbulence and Cloudiness in Cumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layers

Turbulence and cloudiness in cumulus-topped marine boundary layers are studied using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site. The analysis includes eight periods of nonprecipitating shallow cumulus clouds, spanning 141 h and encompassing 603 individual clouds. On average, the cumulus had bases at 558 m, were 99 m thick, had a chord length of 500 m, and exhibited an hourly base-layer cloudiness of 12%. Changes in cloud fraction were primarily driven by variations in cloud number not chord length. High-resolution Doppler lidar and cloud radar observations were used to estimate updraft and downdraft mass fluxes in the cumulus base layer under both clear and cloudy regions. Cloudy updrafts contributed only ∼23% of the total updraft mass flux at cloud base, indicating that most upward mass flux originated from clear-air eddies. Updraft strength, rather than updraft fraction, was found to predominantly control both clear and cloudy updraft mass fluxes. Cloud-base cloudiness strongly correlated with cloudy updraft mass flux but showed negligible correlation with clear-air updraft mass flux. Clear-air downdraft mass flux exhibited a strong relationship with the ratio of surface buoyancy to inversion strength. Mesoscale analysis revealed that moist patches had greater cloudiness, updraft mass flux, and vertical velocity variance compared to dry patches. Additionally, mesoscale base-layer cloud fraction was highly and significantly correlated with cloudy updraft mass flux in both dry and moist environments. Results presented herein have implications for cumulus parameterization development along with climatological and model evaluation studies conducted at the ENA site.

cumulus clouds↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of reduced-complexity aerosol thermodynamics on organic aerosol mass concentration and composition over North America

Atmospheric organic aerosol (OA) mass concentrations can be affected by water uptake through its impact on the gas–particle partitioning of semi-volatile compounds. Current chemical transport models (CTMs) neglect this process. We have implemented the Binary Activity Thermodynamics model coupled to a volatility basis set partitioning scheme in the GEOS-Chem CTM, providing an efficient reduced-complexity OA model that predicts relative-humidity-dependent mixing and partitioning thermodynamics, while limiting the impact on computational efficiency. We provide a quantitative assessment of this water-sensitive OA treatment, focusing on a subdomain over North America. The updated OA scheme predicts a spatiotemporal mean enhancement in surface-level OA mass concentration of 145 % for January 2019 and 76 % for July 2019 compared to GEOS-Chem's most advanced OA scheme. The temporal mean surface-level OA organic mass concentration can increase by up to ∼590 % for January 2019 and ∼280 % for July 2019, with the greatest enhancements occurring over the ocean. The updated OA scheme also quantifies the OA-associated water content. The simulations show how different OA precursors and related OA surrogates contribute and respond to water uptake, including that due to changes in temperature and relative humidity over the diurnal cycle in selected winter and summer months. These results are independent of future CTM improvements involving updates to chemical reaction schemes and emission inventories. Our water-sensitive OA scheme allows for a better representation of the seasonal and regional variations in OA mass concentration in CTMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Spatial color variations in the volcanic plume at Loki, on Io

Multicolor Voyager 1 photographs of the Loki volcanic plume, on Io, have been analyzed to determine the nature and quantity of the scattering material within the plume. This work indicates that there are two particle populations. The first population consists of particles with radius of 0.001-0.01 microns, while the second population, which is concentrated near the source, comprises particles with radius greater than 1 micron. The population of smaller particles includes most of the particulate mass in the plume. This work increases the previously estimated particulate mass (Johnson et al., 1979) and suggests that the SO2 gas spectroscopically identified by Pearl et al. (1979) may represent transient flow from the volcano instead of an atmosphere in stable equilibrium with the local surface.

Collins, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Tropical Atlantic wind field variations during Sequal Preliminary results

The Sequal (Seasonal Response of the Equatorial Atlantic) program has the objective to model correctly the dominant physical processes producing the seasonal redistribution of heat, mass, and salt in the upper ocean. The efforts of Sequal are greatly enhanced by the Focal (Francais Ocean et Climat dans l'Atlantique Equatorial) program. A knowledge of fields of wind stress over the tropical Atlantic is needed for the achievement of the Sequal objectives. The Sequal program makes use of the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Central (FNOC) 'Nogaps' wind fields as a first-guess field which will subsequently be modified. Nogaps is a global weather prediction model consisting of independent global wind and mass analysis submodels. The present investigation is concerned with some preliminary comparisons between Nogaps predictions and surface observations, taking into account monthly mean Nogaps fields and monthly means from a century-long ship report-based climatology.

Harrison, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Terrestrial Water Mass Load Changes from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

Recent studies show that data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is promising for basin- to global-scale water cycle research. This study provides varied assessments of errors associated with GRACE water storage estimates. Thirteen monthly GRACE gravity solutions from August 2002 to December 2004 are examined, along with synthesized GRACE gravity fields for the same period that incorporate simulated errors. The synthetic GRACE fields are calculated using numerical climate models and GRACE internal error estimates. We consider the influence of measurement noise, spatial leakage error, and atmospheric and ocean dealiasing (AOD) model error as the major contributors to the error budget. Leakage error arises from the limited range of GRACE spherical harmonics not corrupted by noise. AOD model error is due to imperfect correction for atmosphere and ocean mass redistribution applied during GRACE processing. Four methods of forming water storage estimates from GRACE spherical harmonics (four different basin filters) are applied to both GRACE and synthetic data. Two basin filters use Gaussian smoothing, and the other two are dynamic basin filters which use knowledge of geographical locations where water storage variations are expected. Global maps of measurement noise, leakage error, and AOD model errors are estimated for each basin filter. Dynamic basin filters yield the smallest errors and highest signal-to-noise ratio. Within 12 selected basins, GRACE and synthetic data show similar amplitudes of water storage change. Using 53 river basins, covering most of Earth's land surface excluding Antarctica and Greenland, we document how error changes with basin size, latitude, and shape. Leakage error is most affected by basin size and latitude, and AOD model error is most dependent on basin latitude.

Seo, K.-W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electrochemistry of PUREX: R is for Reduction and Ion Transfer

The PUREX (Plutonium, Uranium, Reduction, EXtraction) process is the foundation of all industrial activities that involve the recycling of plutonium and uranium from used nuclear fuel. With over 70 years of research, engineering, and operations, it can be argued that little opportunity is left for further discovery and new fundamental understandings regarding PUREX, in general, and tri-n-butyl phosphate (TBP), in particular. Through use of an advanced electroanalytical approach, molecular-level insights regarding the back-extraction of Pu(IV) by reductive separation is reported. Studies of model PUREX systems, with lanthanide ions extracted into 20 % TBP in n-dodecane, are used to demonstrate the approach. These studies reveal knowledge pertinent to mass transfer aspects of the biphasic reductive stripping reaction central to the separation of U and Pu in PUREX. Two lanthanide ions—Ce(IV) and Yb(III)—were extracted from their concentrated solutions in aqueous 3 M HNO 3 to expressly provide electrically conducting third phases to facilitate electrochemical data acquisition. To simplify the diabolically-complicated reductive separation aspects of PUREX, the controlled polarization of electrode surfaces was used to reduce Ce(IV) and Yb(III) in place of chemical reductants. Electroanalyses of the biphasic systems with Ce(IV) and Yb(III) using three-phase electrode differential pulse voltammetry demonstrate the effects of mass transfer across water-oil interfaces on the electrode potentials for the reduction to Ce(III) and Yb(II). These reductions trigger nitrate transfer out of the oil phase for Ce and proton transfer into the organic phase for Yb. This is in correlation with the transfer of the charge-neutral ion pairs Ce·3NO 3 and Yb·2NO 3 out of the oil phases. Here, the differences in ion transfer steps reflect significant variations in the equilibrium speciation of multinuclear Ce(IV) and mononuclear Yb(III) solvates of TBP in the oil phases and the loading of the organic phase.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1977

Formation of the lunar helium corona and atmosphere

Helium is one of the dominant gases of the lunar atmosphere. Its presence is easily identified in data from the mass spectrometer at the Apollo 17 landing site. The major part of these data was obtained in lunar nighttime, where helium concentration reaches the maximum of its diurnal cyclic variation. The large night to day concentration ratio agrees with the basic theory of exospheric lateral transport reported by Hodges and Johnson (1968). A reasonable fraction of atmospheric helium atoms has a velocity in excess of the gravitational escape velocity. The result is a short average lifetime and a tenuous helium atmosphere. A description is presented of an investigation which shows that the atmosphere of the moon has two distinct components including low energy atoms, which are gravitationally bound in trajectories that intersect the lunar surface, and higher energy atoms, which are trapped in satellite orbits. The total helium abundance in the lunar corona is shown to be about 1.3 times 10 to the 30th power atoms.

Hodges, R. R., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Response of the thermosphere and ionosphere to geomagnetic storms

Four numerical simulations have been performed, at equinox, using a coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model, to illustrate the response of the upper atmosphere to geomagnetic storms. The storms are characterized by an increase in magnetospheric energy input at high latitude for a 12-hour period; each storm commences at a different universal time (UT). The initial response at high latitude is that Joule heating raises the temperature of the upper thermosphere and ion drag drives high-velocity neutral winds. The heat source drives a global wind surge, from both polar regions, which propagates to low latitudes and into the opposite hemisphere. The surge has the character of a large-scale gravity wave with a phase speed of about 600 m/s. Behind the surge a global circulation of magnitude 100 m/s is established at middle latitudes, indicating that the wave and the onset of global circulation are manifestations of the same phenomena. A dominant feature of the response is the penetration of the surge into the opposite hemisphere where it drives poleward winds for a few hours. The global wind surge has a preference for the night sector and for the longitude of the magnetic pole and therefore depends on the UT start time of the storm. A second phase of the meridional circulation develops after the wave interaction but is also restricted, in this case by the buildup of zonal winds via the Coriolis interaction. Conservation of angular momentum may limit the buildup of zonal wind in extreme cases. The divergent wind field drives upwelling and composition change on both height and pressure surfaces. The composition bulge responds to both the background and the storm-induced horizontal winds; it does not simply rotate with Earth. During the storm the disturbance wind modulates the location of the bulge; during the recovery the background winds induce a diurnal variation in its position. Equatorward winds in sunlight produce positive ionospheric changes during the main driving phase of the storm. Negative ionospheric phases are caused by increases of molecular nitrogen in regions of sunlight, the strength of which depends on longitude and the local time of the sector during the storm input. Regions of positive phase in the ionosphere persist in the recovery period due to decreases in mean molecular mass in regions of previous downwelling. Ion density changes, expressed as a ratio of disturbed to quiet values, exhibit a diurnal variation that is driven by the location of the composition bulge; this variation explains the ac component of the local time variation of the observed negative storm phase.

Fuller-Rowell, T. J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic signatures of electronically nonadiabatic coupling in sodium hydride: a rigorous test for the symmetric quasi-classical model applied to realistic, ab initio electronic states in the adiabatic representation

Sodium hydride (NaH) in the gas phase presents a seemingly simple electronic structure making it a potentially tractable system for the detailed investigation of nonadiabatic molecular dynamics from both computational and experimental standpoints. The single vibrational degree of freedom, as well as the strong nonadiabatic coupling that arises from the excited electronic states taking on considerable ionic character, provides a realistic chemical system to test the accuracy of quasi-classical methods to model population dynamics where the results are directly comparable against quantum mechanical benchmarks. Here, using a simulated pump–probe type experiment, this work presents computational predictions of population transfer through the avoided crossings of NaH via symmetric quasi-classical Meyer–Miller (SQC/MM), Ehrenfest, and exact quantum dynamics on realistic, ab initio potential energy surfaces. The main driving force for population transfer arises from the ground vibrational level of the D 1 Σ + adiabatic state that is embedded in the manifold of near-dissociation C 1 Σ + vibrational states. When coupled through a sharply localized first-order derivative coupling most of the population transfers between t = 15 and t = 30 fs depending on the initially excited vibronic wavepacket. While quantum mechanical effects are expected due to the reduced mass of NaH, predictions of the population dynamics from both the SQC/MM and Ehrenfest models perform remarkably well against the quantum dynamics benchmark. Additionally, an analysis of the vibronic structure in the nonadiabatically coupled regime is presented using a variational eigensolver methodology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2005

Evaluation of Microbolometer-Based Thermography for Gossamer Space Structures

In August 2003, NASA's In-Space Propulsion Program contracted with our team to develop a prototype on-board Optical Diagnostics System (ODS) for solar sail flight tests. The ODS is intended to monitor sail deployment as well as structural and thermal behavior, and to validate computational models for use in designing future solar sail missions. This paper focuses on the thermography aspects of the ODS. A thermal model was developed to predict local sail temperature variations as a function of sail tilt to the sun, billow depth, and spectral optical properties of front and back sail surfaces. Temperature variations as small as 0.5 C can induce significant thermal strains that compare in magnitude to mechanical strains. These thermally induced strains may result in changes in shape and dynamics. The model also gave insight into the range and sensitivity required for in-flight thermal measurements and supported the development of an ABAQUS-coupled thermo-structural model. The paper also discusses three kinds of tests conducted to 1) determine the optical properties of candidate materials; 2) evaluate uncooled microbolometer-type infrared imagers; and 3) operate a prototype imager with the ODS baseline configuration. (Uncooled bolometers are less sensitive than cooled ones, but may be necessary because of restrictive ODS mass and power limits.) The team measured the spectral properties of several coated polymer samples at various angles of incidence. Two commercially available uncooled microbolometer imagers were compared, and it was found that reliable temperature measurements are feasible for both coated and uncoated sides of typical sail membrane materials.

Miles, Jonathan J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗