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At least 469 records · Page 26

A Novel Transactive Energy Control Mechanism for Collaborative Networked Microgrids

Collaboration of networked microgrids (NMGs) with diverse generation sources is a promising solution to smooth volatile generation output and enhance the utilization efficiency of renewable energies. In addition to centralized and decentralized collaboration mechanisms, transactive energy control (TEC) is an emerging and effective market-based control to enable energy transactions among distributed entities such as NMGs. However, existing studies on TEC suffer from several major weaknesses such as unconstrained/simplified model formulations and slow convergence rates. This paper proposes here a novel TEC mechanism to tackle these weaknesses. First, the centralized mechanism, de-centralized mechanism, and subgradient-based TEC mechanism to coordinate the operation of NMGs are briefly reviewed and modeled by a scenario-based stochastic optimization method. A new TEC mechanism is then proposed, consisting of a TEC framework, mathematical model, pricing rule, and algorithm. The optimality of the proposed TEC mathematical model and pricing rule is demonstrated. The effectiveness of the proposed TEC mechanism is verified in case studies where the NMGs operate in grid-connected, islanded, and congested modes. The advantages of the proposed TEC mechanism are also illustrated through comparisons with the centralized mechanism, decentralized mechanism, and subgradient-based TEC mechanism.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Convergence Analysis of Fixed Point Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow Problems

For optimal power flow problems with chance constraints, a particularly effective method is based on a fixed point iteration applied to a sequence of deterministic power flow problems. However, a priori, the convergence of such an approach is not necessarily guaranteed. Here this article analyses the convergence conditions for this fixed point approach, and reports numerical experiments including for large IEEE networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Stochastic Community Assembly: Does It Matter in Microbial Ecology?

Understanding the mechanisms controlling community diversity, functions, succession, and biogeography is a central, but poorly understood, topic in ecology, particularly in microbial ecology. Although stochastic processes are believed to play nonnegligible roles in shaping community structure, their importance relative to deterministic processes is hotly debated. The importance of ecological stochasticity in shaping microbial community structure is far less appreciated. Some of the main reasons for such heavy debates are the difficulty in defining stochasticity and the diverse methods used for delineating stochasticity. Here in this paper, we provide a critical review and synthesis of data from the most recent studies on stochastic community assembly in microbial ecology. We then describe both stochastic and deterministic components embedded in various ecological processes, including selection, dispersal, diversification, and drift. We also describe different approaches for inferring stochasticity from observational diversity patterns and highlight experimental approaches for delineating ecological stochasticity in microbial communities. In addition, we highlight research challenges, gaps, and future directions for microbial community assembly research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Coupled Geomechanical Modeling to Assess Cap Rock Integrity and Mechanical Fault Stability: Application to Farnsworth Field Unit Project

Abstract The SWP project is located in a mature waterflood undergoing conversion to CO2-WAG operations in the Farnsworth, Texas, USA. Anthropogenic CO2 is sourced from a fertilizer and an ethanol plant. This work utilizes Farnsworth’s full-field, history-matched, compositional hydrodynamic coupled geomechanical model for assessing the impact of stress changes observed through the history matched field life. Production and injection induced stress changes, fault stability and caprock integrity investigations are performed to project the potential for fault reactivation and the loss of caprock integrity under shear failure. A static mechanical earth model (MEM) was constructed for use in transient coupled geomechanical model based on the existing Southwest Regional Partnership (SWP) geological model. The static MEM inherits the stratigraphic and structural features of the geologic model and incorporates additional overburden, underburden, and sideburden formations required to impose mechanical boundary conditions. Mechanical properties were distributed in the 3D MEM through integration of geophysical logs and 3-dimensional seismic elastic inversion properties using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic interpolation methods. These data are further enhanced by lab derived strength and failure criteria for the caprock interval. Additionally, interpreted faults and other geological features were included as part of the static structural framework to fully represent subsurface hydraulic and mechanical systems and appropriately integrate heterogeneity. Two-way coupling of hydrodynamic flow and geomechanical simulations incorporates the Kozeny-Carman relationship for updating permeability and is history matched through primary, secondary (waterflooding) and tertiary (CO2 WAG) recovery periods before performing a twenty year forecast. Two-way simulations are performed to understand the effective stress perturbations imposed by field operations: water injection and the more recent implementation of WAG. Evaluation of Mohr circles with liquid production and field pressure charts as well as slip tendency and distance to failure metrics indicate that neither our faults or cap rock are critically stressed. This paper presents the results of the Farnsworth initial attempts to integrate the seismic driven 3D MEM into coupled hydrodynamic geomechanical history match simulation workflow.

02 PETROLEUM↗

An advanced joint inversion system for CO 2 storage modeling with large date sets for characterization and real-time monitoring-enhancing storage performance and reducing failure risks under uncertainties

As large-scale, commercial storage projects become operational, the problem of utilizing information from diverse sources becomes more critically important. In this project, we developed, tested, and applied an advanced joint data inversion system for CO 2 storage modeling with large data sets for use in site characterization and real-time monitoring. Emphasis was on the development of advanced and efficient computational algorithms for joint inversion of hydro-geophysical data, coupled with state-of-the-art forward process simulations. The developed system consists of (1) inversion tools using characterization data, such as 3D seismic survey (amplitude images), borehole log and core data, as well as hydraulic, tracer and thermal tests before CO 2 injection, (2) joint inversion tools for updating the geologic model with the distribution of rock properties, thus reducing uncertainty, using hydro-geophysical monitoring data, and (3) highly efficient algorithms for directly solving the dense or sparse linear algebra systems derived from the joint inversion. The system combines methods from stochastic analysis, fast linear algebra, and high performance computing. The developed joint inversion tools have been tested through synthetic CO 2 storage examples.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Multiscale Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Fuel Performance

In this project, we will address the challenges associated with constructing high fidelity multiscale models of nuclear fuel performance. We (*) propose a novel approach for coupling mesoscale and macroscale models, (*) devise efficient numerical methods for simulating the coupled system, and (*) devise and analyze effective numerical approaches for error and uncertainty quantification for the coupled multiscale system. As an integral part of the project, we will carry out analysis of the effects of upscaling and downscaling, investigate efficient methods for stochastic sensitivity analysis of the individual macroscale and mesoscale models, and carry out a posteriori error analysis for computed results. We will pursue development and implementation of solutions in software used at Idaho National Laboratories on models of interest to the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Posterior Regularized Bayesian Neural Network

Traditional NNs often lack the ability for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian NNs(BNNs) could help measure the confidence level by using distributions in NNs modeling. Besides, knowledge is commonly available and could improve the performance of BNNs if it can be properly incorporated. In this work, we propose a novel Posterior-Regularized BNN(PR-BNN) model by incorporating soft and hard constraints as a posterior regularization term. We also propose an augmented Lagrangian method and stochastic optimization algorithm for efficient updating via Monte Carlo sampling. The simulations and case studies for solar PV plants have shown the performance improvement of the proposed model over traditional BNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A single-column particle-resolved model for simulating the vertical distribution of aerosol mixing state: WRF-PartMC-MOSAIC-SCM v1.0

Abstract. The PartMC-MOSAIC particle-resolved aerosol model was previously developed to predict the aerosol mixing state as it evolves in the atmosphere. However, the modeling framework was limited to a zero-dimensional box model approach without resolving spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations. This paper presents the development of stochastic particle methods to simulate turbulent diffusion and dry deposition of aerosol particles in a vertical column within the planetary boundary layer. The new model, WRF-PartMC-MOSAIC-SCM, resolves the vertical distribution of aerosol mixing state. We verified the new algorithms with analytical solutions for idealized test cases and illustrate the capabilities with results from a 2-day urban scenario that shows the evolution of black carbon mixing state in a vertical column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linear regulator design for stochastic systems by a multiple time scales method

A hierarchically-structured, suboptimal controller for a linear stochastic system composed of fast and slow subsystems is considered. The controller is optimal in the limit as the separation of time scales of the subsystems becomes infinite. The methodology is illustrated by design of a controller to suppress the phugoid and short period modes of the longitudinal dynamics of the F-8 aircraft.

Teneketzis, D.↗

ESR studies of the slow tumbling of vanadyl spin probes in nematic liquid crystals

ESR line shapes that are appropriate for slowly tumbling vanadyl spin probes in viscous nematic liquid crystals were calculated by the stochastic Liouville method. Because of the symmetry possessed by vanadyl, the analysis and interpretation of these line shapes was simplified considerably. Spectral line shapes agreed well with experimental spectra of VOAcAc in the nematic liquid crystal Phase V and BEPC. Deviations from Brownian rotational diffusion were noted. A slowly fluctuating torque analysis yielded good agreement with the experimental spectra.

Eastman, M. P.↗

Electron paramagnetic resonance studies of slowly tumbling vanadyl spin probes in nematic liquid crystals

The purposes of this vanadyl spin probe study are threefold: (1) to establish when the breakdown of motionally narrowed formulas occurs; (2) to analyze the experimental vanadyl EPR line shapes by the stochastic Lioville method as developed by Polnaszek et al. (1973) for slow tumbling in an anisotropic liquid; and (3) to compare the vanadyl probe study results with those of Polnaszek and Freed (1975). Spectral EPR line shapes are simulated for experimental spectra of vanadyl acetylacetonate (VOAA) in nematic liquid crystal butyl p-(p-ethoxyphenoxycarbonyl) phenyl carbonate (BEPC) and Phase V of EM laboratories. It is shown that the use of typical vanadyl complexes as spin probes for nematic liquid crystals simplifies the theoretical analysis and the subsequent interpretation. Guidelines for the breakdown of motionally narrowed formulas are established. Both the slow tumbling aspects and the effects of non-Brownian rotation should be resolved in order to extract quantitative information about molecular ordering and rotational mobility.

Bruno, G. V.↗

Influence of maneuverability on helicopter combat effectiveness

A computational procedure employing a stochastic learning method in conjunction with dynamic simulation of helicopter flight and weapon system operation was used to derive helicopter maneuvering strategies. The derived strategies maximize either survival or kill probability and are in the form of a feedback control based upon threat visual or warning system cues. Maneuverability parameters implicit in the strategy development include maximum longitudinal acceleration and deceleration, maximum sustained and transient load factor turn rate at forward speed, and maximum pedal turn rate and lateral acceleration at hover. Results are presented in terms of probability of skill for all combat initial conditions for two threat categories.

Falco, M.↗

Non-Gaussian approach for parametric random vibration of non-linear structures

The dynamic response of a nonlinear, single degree of freedom structural system subjected to a physically white noise parametric excitation is investigated. The Ito stochastic calculus is employed to derive a general differential equation for the moments of the response coordinates. The differential equations of moments of any order are found to be coupled with higher order moments. A non-Gaussian closure scheme is developed to truncate the moment equations up to fourth order. The statistical of the stationary response are computed numerically and compared with analytical solutions predicted by a Gaussian closure scheme and the stochastic averaging method. It is found that the computed results exhibit the jump phenomenon which is typical of the characteristics of deterministic nonlinear systems. In addition, the numerical algorithm leads to multiple solutions all of which give positive mean squares. However, two of these solutions are found to violate the properties of high order moments. One solution preserves the moments properties and demonstrates that the system achieves a stationary response.

Ibrahim, R. A.↗