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NASA NTRS1989

Global backscatter assessment

The focus of this effort is the development of a global-scale model of aerosol backscatter for laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) design and performance studies. Background parameters are derived from aerosol data sets with global-scale spatial and/or temporal coverage, using objective statistical decomposition and/or a priori stratification based on supplementary data. Backscatter coefficients at the LAWS design wavelength are derived from background aerosol physical, chemical, and optical data, or from direct backscatter measurements at other wavelengths, using background conversion factors. Direct measurements of aerosol backscatter at 10.6 microns from the Royal Signals and Radar Establishment (RSRE) and the Wave Propagation Laboratory (WPL) were selected. The RSRE backscatter data processing code were optimized under low backscatter conditions, performed detailed analyses of collocated intercomparisons between the two lidars, and assisted in the analysis of the long-term backscatter climatologies from the two lidars. Timely presentation of global backscattering experiment (GLOBE) research results to the global geophysical community is required.

Bowdle, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Modeling and Observational Study of the Global Atmospheric Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Anomalies

A combined observational and modeling study considers the linkage between Antarctic sea ice and the climate of non-local latitudes. The observational component is based upon analyses of monthly station observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis (NNR). The modeling component consists of simulations of the NCAR Community Climate Model versions 2 (CCM2) and 3 (CCM3) and the recent Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2). A convenient mechanism for communication between the Antarctic region (particularly the Ross Sea area) and the tropics and Northern Hemisphere is examined. The first evidence of this teleconnection came from CCM2 simulations performed during an earlier NASA supported project. Annual-cycle simulations with and without Antarctic sea ice show statistically- significant responses in monsoon precipitation over central and northern China during the month of September. The changes in monsoon precipitation are physically consistent with an intensified southwest Pacific (Northern Hemisphere) subtropical high in response to all Antarctic sea ice being removed and replaced with open water at -1.9"C. The intensified high is the northernmost component of three primary anomalies. The southernmost anomaly includes the Ross Sea area, where sea ice has been removed. An earlier study by Peng and Domros had also found a link between Antarctic sea ice and the East Asian monsoon circulation. The current project has helped to understand the teleconnection.

Bromwich, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Krisko, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 μm to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraft

Krisko, P. H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Optimization of the 4-Bed CO2 Scrubber Performance Based on Ground Tests

Testing of ground hardware closely matching the flight design for the 4-Bed CO2Scrubber (4BCO2) has provided a wealth of information about the complex and highly coupled batch process. The 4BCO2 process is a Thermal and Vacuum Swing Adsorption (TVSA) cycle with recirculating flows. The ability to measure CO2concentration at intermediate points in this architecture is new to this ground test system and has revealed a better understanding of system performance and its dependence on system design, operational parameters, and boundary conditions. This paper will discuss a statistical analysis performed to identify significant correlations between performance factors and operational parameters. Using these new insights on the highly coupled system physics, means for improvements to system performance are proposed.

CO2 Removal↗

NASA NTRS2019

Seasonal- and Beta-Angle-Dependent Latitude Bias Variations in Natural Decays

Prior work has demonstrated pronounced statistical clustering of natural decays of medium-to-high-inclination orbital objects peaking approximately 30 degrees in Argument of Latitude ahead of nodal crossings. This effect is caused by the physical bulge in the Earth and the overlying atmosphere, that cyclically modifies effective altitude (and therefore density) faster than the trajectory's decay itself. While prior work has averaged seasonal and RAAN effects over all non-uniform atmosphere possibilities to support long-term characterization of the clustering of final entries in generating a pre-mission Expectation of Casualty, the current study characterizes seasonal and beta angle effects as potential influences on the near-term statistical risks of specific tactical decay scenarios, relative to the average. Such effects on the density profile along an orbit may be important considerations in any scenario where small orbital adjustments are used to optimize the timing and location of final entry trajectories. I.E., two identical spacecraft entering in different seasons and/or beta angles may have different minimum-risk scenarios for identical control capabilities and space weather conditions. Further, the early heating history of shallow trajectories is explored, examining the influence of dramatically different density profiles over the final orbit as the spacecraft either skims over or dives into the atmosphere.

Bacon, John B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Influence of Computational Drop Representation in LES of a Droplet-Laden Mixing Layer

Multiphase turbulent flows are encountered in many practical applications including turbine engines or natural phenomena involving particle dispersion. Numerical computations of multiphase turbulent flows are important because they provide a cheaper alternative to performing experiments during an engine design process or because they can provide predictions of pollutant dispersion, etc. Two-phase flows contain millions and sometimes billions of particles. For flows with volumetrically dilute particle loading, the most accurate method of numerically simulating the flow is based on direct numerical simulation (DNS) of the governing equations in which all scales of the flow including the small scales that are responsible for the overwhelming amount of dissipation are resolved. DNS, however, requires high computational cost and cannot be used in engineering design applications where iterations among several design conditions are necessary. Because of high computational cost, numerical simulations of such flows cannot track all these drops. The objective of this work is to quantify the influence of the number of computational drops and grid spacing on the accuracy of predicted flow statistics, and to possibly identify the minimum number, or, if not possible, the optimal number of computational drops that provide minimal error in flow prediction. For this purpose, several Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of a mixing layer with evaporating drops have been performed by using coarse, medium, and fine grid spacings and computational drops, rather than physical drops. To define computational drops, an integer NR is introduced that represents the ratio of the number of existing physical drops to the desired number of computational drops; for example, if NR=8, this means that a computational drop represents 8 physical drops in the flow field. The desired number of computational drops is determined by the available computational resources; the larger NR is, the less computationally intensive is the simulation. A set of first order and second order flow statistics, and of drop statistics are extracted from LES predictions and are compared to results obtained by filtering a DNS database. First order statistics such as Favre averaged stream-wise velocity, Favre averaged vapor mass fraction, and the drop stream-wise velocity, are predicted accurately independent of the number of computational drops and grid spacing. Second order flow statistics depend both on the number of computational drops and on grid spacing. The scalar variance and turbulent vapor flux are predicted accurately by the fine mesh LES only when NR is less than 32, and by the coarse mesh LES reasonably accurately for all NR values. This is attributed to the fact that when the grid spacing is coarsened, the number of drops in a computational cell must not be significantly lower than that in the DNS.

Bellan, Josette↗

NASA NTRS2001

Rotation of EOFs by the Independent Component Analysis: Towards A Solution of the Mixing Problem in the Decomposition of Geophysical Time Series

The Independent Component Analysis is a recently developed technique for component extraction. This new method requires the statistical independence of the extracted components, a stronger constraint that uses higher-order statistics, instead of the classical decorrelation, a weaker constraint that uses only second-order statistics. This technique has been used recently for the analysis of geophysical time series with the goal of investigating the causes of variability in observed data (i.e. exploratory approach). We demonstrate with a data simulation experiment that, if initialized with a Principal Component Analysis, the Independent Component Analysis performs a rotation of the classical PCA (or EOF) solution. This rotation uses no localization criterion like other Rotation Techniques (RT), only the global generalization of decorrelation by statistical independence is used. This rotation of the PCA solution seems to be able to solve the tendency of PCA to mix several physical phenomena, even when the signal is just their linear sum.

Aires, Filipe↗

NASA NTRS2000

Rotation of EOFs by the Independent Component Analysis: Towards a Solution of the Mixing Problem in the Decomposition of Geophysical Time Series

Aires, Filipe↗

NASA NTRS1983

Data processing techniques used with MST radars: A review

The data processing methods used in high power radar probing of the middle atmosphere are examined. The radar acts as a spatial filter on the small scale refractivity fluctuations in the medium. The characteristics of the received signals are related to the statistical properties of these fluctuations. A functional outline of the components of a radar system is given. Most computation intensive tasks are carried out by the processor. The processor computes a statistical function of the received signals, simultaneously for a large number of ranges. The slow fading of atmospheric signals is used to reduce the data input rate to the processor by coherent integration. The inherent range resolution of the radar experiments can be improved significant with the use of pseudonoise phase codes to modulate the transmitted pulses and a corresponding decoding operation on the received signals. Commutability of the decoding and coherent integration operations is used to obtain a significant reduction in computations. The limitations of the processors are outlined. At the next level of data reduction, the measured function is parameterized by a few spectral moments that can be related to physical processes in the medium. The problems encountered in estimating the spectral moments in the presence of strong ground clutter, external interference, and noise are discussed. The graphical and statistical analysis of the inferred parameters are outlined. The requirements for special purpose processors for MST radars are discussed.

Rastogi, P. K.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Ginga Gamma-Ray Burst Line Occurrence

The purpose of this project is the statistical evaluation of the occurrence of spectral lines in the gamma-ray burst spectra detected by the Ginga burst detector, and the comparison of the Ginga results to the BATSE observations. Two significant line features were detected in the Ginga bursts, but thus far none have been detected in the bursts BATSE detected. These line features may indicate the presence of strong magnetic fields in bursts, and therefore are important physical diagnostics of the conditions in the plasma which radiates the observed gamma-rays. The issue is whether there is a discrepancy between the Ginga and BATSE results; the potential discrepancy must be evaluated statistically. Even if BATSE line detections are announced, the statistical methodology we have developed can be used to estimate the rate at which different types of spectral features occur.

Band, David↗

NASA NTRS1918

An Investigation of the Elements which Contribute to Statical and Dynamical Stability, and of the Effects of Variation in Those Elements

Part 1 gives details of models tested and methods of testing of the Eiffel 36 wing alone and the JN2 aircraft. Characteristics and performance curves for standard JN are included. Part 2 presents a statistical analysis of the following: lift and drag contributed by body and chassis tested without wings; lift and drag contributed by tail, tested without wings; the effect on lift and drift of interference between the wings of a biplane combination; lift and drag contributed by the addition of body, chassis, and tail to a biplane combination; total parasite resistance; effect of varying size of tail, keeping angle of setting constant; effect of varying length of body and size of tail at the same time, keeping constant moment of tail surface about the center of gravity; forces on the tail and the effects of downwash; effect of size and setting of tail on statical longitudinal stability effects of length of body on stability; the effects of the various elements of an airplane on longitudinal stability and the placing of the force vectors. Part 3 presents the fundamental principals of dynamical stability; computations of resistance derivatives; solution of the stability equation; dynamical stability of the Curtiss JN2; tabulation of resistance derivatives; discussion of the resistance derivatives; formation and solution of stability equations; physical conceptions of the resistance derivatives; elements contributing to damping and an investigation of low speed conditions. Part 4 includes a summary of the results of the statistical investigation and a summary of the results for dynamic stability.

Klemin, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS1972

Short-duration solar microwave bursts and associated soft X-ray emission

Two hundred and fifty-nine short-duration microwave (15.4 GHz) bursts which occurred during the period of January 1968 to March 1970 were correlated with possible soft X-ray (2-12 A) flares occurring simultaneously. Sixty-six percent of the microwave bursts which were observed during periods of soft X-ray data coverage had associated soft X-ray flares. A study of an index of impulsiveness of the microwave flares failed to show a separation of the events into subclasses which could be attributed to distinctly different physical mechanisms. A weak (0.43) correlation was found between the intensities of the microwave and X-ray flares. A very weak (0.15) and statistically questionable correlation was found between the total energy released in these two energy ranges. Two models for the electron acceleration mechanism are discussed.

Spangler, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Surface Units on Venus Derived from Pioneer-venus Altimetry, Roughness, and Reflectivity Measurements

The nature of the Venusian surface was revealed by Pioneer-Venus (PV) observations to be diverse at scales from tens to hundreds of kilometers. Spatial correlations of elevation, surface roughness, and radar reflectivity were investigated as a means of assessing the degree of homogeneity of surface radar properties within topographic provinces and develop a map of possible geologic boundaries. Correlations were performed in a supervised fashion whereby unit boundaries were selected on the basis of statistical and empirical studies of the individual data sets. Interpretations of these units in terms of geologic characteristics are based on the determination of physical units which are model dependent.

Peterfreund, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Optimizing the use of remotely sensed atmospheric data through four-dimensional data assimilation

Results with the GLA interactive forecast-retrieval-assimilation system, which directly uses satellite radiance data in the assimilation cycle, are presented. Forecasts made from initial conditions derived with this system are shown to be more skillful than those whose initial conditions came from a comparable assimilation using statistically based temperature soundings, or ones using no sounding data at all. Examples are also given of additional parameters which are produced through the physical inversion of the satellite radiance data during the interactive assimilation cycle. These are potentially useful for analysis purposes.

Pfaendtner, J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

FIR statistics of paired galaxies

Much progress has been made in understanding the effects of interaction on galaxies (see reviews in this volume by Heckman and Kennicutt). Evidence for enhanced emission from galaxies in pairs first emerged in the radio (Sulentic 1976) and optical (Larson and Tinsley 1978) domains. Results in the far infrared (FIR) lagged behind until the advent of the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS). The last five years have seen numerous FIR studies of optical and IR selected samples of interacting galaxies (e.g., Cutri and McAlary 1985; Joseph and Wright 1985; Kennicutt et al. 1987; Haynes and Herter 1988). Despite all of this work, there are still contradictory ideas about the level and, even, the reality of an FIR enhancement in interacting galaxies. Much of the confusion originates in differences between the galaxy samples that were studied (i.e., optical morphology and redshift coverage). Here, the authors report on a study of the FIR detection properties for a large sample of interacting galaxies and a matching control sample. They focus on the distance independent detection fraction (DF) statistics of the sample. The results prove useful in interpreting the previously published work. A clarification of the phenomenology provides valuable clues about the physics of the FIR enhancement in galaxies.

Sulentic, Jack W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Procedure for Adapting Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Meshes

A technique is presented for adapting computational meshes used in the G2 version of the direct simulation Monte Carlo method. The physical ideas underlying the technique are discussed, and adaptation formulas are developed for use on solutions generated from an initial mesh. The effect of statistical scatter on adaptation is addressed, and results demonstrate the ability of this technique to achieve more accurate results without increasing necessary computational resources.

Woronowicz, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The North Pacific as a Regulator of Summertime Climate Over North America and the Asian Monsoon

The interannual variability of summertime rainfall over the U.S. may be linked to climate anomalies over Pacific and East Asia through teleconnection patterns that may be components of recurring global climate modes in boreal summer (Lau and Weng 2002). In this study, maintenance of the boreal summer teleconnection patterns is investigated. The particular focus is on the potential effects of North Pacific air-sea interaction on climate anomalies over the U.S. Observational data, reanalysis and outputs of a series of NASA NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to NASA GSFC MLO model experiments are used. Statistical analysis of observations and NSIPP AMIP type simulations indicates that, the interannual variability of observed warm season precipitation over the U.S. is related to SST variation in both tropical and North Pacific, whereas the NSIPP AMIP simulated summertime US. precipitation variation mainly reflects impact of ENS0 in tropical Pacific. This implies the potential importance of air-sea interaction in North Pacific in contributing to the interannual variability of observed summer climate over the U.S. The anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the dominant summertime teleconnection modes in both observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations are further diagnosed, using stationary wave modeling approach. In observations, for the two dominant modes, both anomalous diabatic heating and anomalous transients significantly contribute to the anomalous circulation. The distributions of the anomalous diabatic heating and transient forcing are quadrature configured over North Pacific and North America, so that both forcings act constructively to maintain the teleconnection patterns. The contrast between observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations from stationary wave modeling diagnosis confirms the previous conclusion based on statistical analysis. To better appreciate the role of extra-tropical air-sea interaction in maintaining the summertime teleconnection pattern, various dynamical and physical fields and their inter- linkage in the series of NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to MLO model experiments are examined in-depth. Based on comparison between different model experiments, we will discuss the physical and dynamical mechanisms through which the air-sea interaction in extratropics, and transient mean flow interactions over the North Pacific, affects interannual variation of U.S. climate during boreal summer.

Lau, William K. M.↗