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At least 469 records · Page 26

Statistical Relations among Solid Precipitation, Atmospheric Moisture and Cloud Parameters in the Arctic

Observations collected during cold-season precipitation periods at Utquagvik, Alaska and at the multidisciplinary drifting observatory for the study of Arctic climate (MOSAiC) are used to statistically analyze the relations among the atmospheric water cycle parameters including the columnar supercooled liquid and ice amounts (expressed as liquid-water and ice-water paths, i.e., LWP and IWP), the integrated water vapor (IWV) and the near-surface snowfall rate. Data come from radar and radiometer-based retrievals and from optical precipitation sensors. While the correlation between snowfall rate and LWP is rather weak, correlation coefficients between radar-derived snowfall rate and IWP are high (~0.8), which is explained, in part, by the generally low LWP/IWP ratios during significant precipitation. Correlation coefficients between snowfall rate and IWV are moderate (~0.45). Correlations are generally weaker if snowfall is estimated by optical sensors, which is, in part, due to blowing snow. Correlation coefficients between near-surface temperature and snowfall rates are low (r < 0.3). The results from the Alaska and MOSAiC sites are generally similar. These results are not very sensitive to the amount of time averaging (e.g., 15 min averaging versus daily averages). Observationally based relations among the water cycle parameters are informative about atmospheric moisture conversion processes and can be used for model evaluations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Survival Analysis with Bayesian Statistics to Forecast the Remaining Useful Life of a Centrifugal Pump Conditional to Multiple Fault Types

To improve the viability of nuclear power plants, there is a need to reduce their operational costs. Operational costs account for a significant portion of a plant’s yearly budget, due to their scheduled-based maintenance approach. In order to reduce these costs, proactive methods are required that estimate and forecast the state of a machine in real time to optimize maintenance schedules. In this research, we use Bayesian networks to develop a framework that can forecast the remaining useful life of a centrifugal pump. To do so, we integrate survival analysis with Bayesian statistics to forecast the health of the pump conditional to its current state. We complete our research by successfully using the Bayesian network on a case study. This solution provides an informed probabilistic viewpoint of the pumping system for the purpose of predictive maintenance.

42 ENGINEERING↗