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At least 469 records · Page 26

Heterogeneous local dynamics revealed by classification analysis of spatially disaggregated time series data

Time series data provide a crucial window into infectious disease dynamics, yet their utility is often limited by the spatially aggregated form in which they are presented. When working with time series data, violating the implicit assumption of homogeneous dynamics below the scale of spatial aggregation could bias inferences about underlying processes. We tested this assumption in the context of the 2015–2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia, where time series of weekly case reports were available at national, departmental, and municipal scales. First, we performed a descriptive analysis, which showed that the timing of departmental-level epidemic peaks varied by three months and that departmental-level estimates of the time-varying reproduction number, R(t), showed patterns that were distinct from a national-level estimate. Second, we applied a classification algorithm to six features of proportional cumulative incidence curves, which showed that variability in epidemic duration, the length of the epidemic tail, and consistency with a cumulative normal density curve made the greatest contributions to distinguishing groups. Third, we applied this classification algorithm to data simulated with a stochastic transmission model, which showed that group assignments were consistent with simulated differences in the basic reproduction number, R0. This result, along with associations between spatial drivers of transmission and group assignments based on observed data, suggests that the classification algorithm is capable of detecting differences in temporal patterns that are associated with differences in underlying drivers of incidence patterns. Overall, this diversity of temporal patterns at local scales underscores the value of spatially disaggregated time series data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Stability-driven nonnegative matrix factorization to interpret spatial gene expression and build local gene networks

Spatial gene expression patterns enable the detection of local covariability and are extremely useful for identifying local gene interactions during normal development. The abundance of spatial expression data in recent years has led to the modeling and analysis of regulatory networks. The inherent complexity of such data makes it a challenge to extract biological information. We developed staNMF, a method that combines a scalable implementation of nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) with a new stability-driven model selection criterion. When applied to a set of Drosophila early embryonic spatial gene expression images, one of the largest datasets of its kind, staNMF identified 21 principal patterns (PP). Providing a compact yet biologically interpretable representation of Drosophila expression patterns, PP are comparable to a fate map generated experimentally by laser ablation and show exceptional promise as a data-driven alternative to manual annotations. Our analysis mapped genes to cell-fate programs and assigned putative biological roles to uncharacterized genes. Finally, we used the PP to generate local transcription factor regulatory networks. Spatially local correlation networks were constructed for six PP that span along the embryonic anterior-posterior axis. Using a two-tail 5% cutoff on correlation, we reproduced 10 of the 11 links in the well-studied gap gene network. In conclusion, the performance of PP with the Drosophila data suggests that staNMF provides informative decompositions and constitutes a useful computational lens through which to extract biological insight from complex and often noisy gene expression data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Tetrahedral Trees: A Family of Hierarchical Spatial Indexes for Tetrahedral Meshes

In this work, we address the problem of performing efficient spatial and topological queries on large tetrahedral meshes with arbitrary topology and complex boundaries. Such meshes arise in several application domains, such as 3D Geographic Information Systems (GISs), scientific visualization, and finite element analysis. To this aim, we propose Tetrahedral trees, a family of spatial indexes based on a nested space subdivision (an octree or a kD-tree) and defined by several different subdivision criteria. We provide efficient algorithms for spatial and topological queries on Tetrahedral trees and compare to state-of-the-art approaches. Our results indicate that Tetrahedral trees are an improvement over R*-trees for querying tetrahedral meshes; they are more compact, faster in many queries, and stable at variations of construction thresholds. They also support spatial queries on more general domains than topological data structures, which explicitly encode adjacency information for efficient navigation but have difficulties with domains with a non-trivial geometric or topological shape.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Abiotic proxies for predictive mapping of nearshore benthic assemblages: implications for marine spatial planning

Marine spatial planning (MSP) should assist managers in guiding human activities toward sustainable practices and in minimizing user conflicts in our oceans. A necessary first step is to quantify spatial patterns of marine assemblages in order to understand the ecosystem's structure, function, and services. However, the large spatial scale, high economic value, and density of human activities in nearshore habitats often makes quantifying this component of marine ecosystems especially daunting. To address this challenge, we developed an assessment method that employs abiotic proxies to rapidly characterize marine assemblages in nearshore benthic environments with relatively high resolution. We evaluated this assessment method along 300 km of the State of Maine's coastal shelf (<100 m depth), a zone where high densities of buoyed lobster traps typically preclude extensive surveys by towed sampling gear (i.e., otter trawls). During the summer months of 2010–2013, we implemented a stratified-random survey using a small remotely operated vehicle that allowed us to work around lobster buoys and to quantify all benthic megafauna to species. Stratifying by substrate, depth, and coastal water masses, we found that abiotic variables explained a significant portion of variance (37–59%) in benthic species composition, diversity, biomass, and economic value. Generally, the density, diversity, and biomass of assemblages significantly increased with the substrate complexity (i.e., from sand-mud to ledge). The diversity, biomass, and economic value of assemblages also decreased significantly with increasing depth. Last, demersal fish densities, sessile invertebrate densities, species diversity, and assemblage biomass increased from east to west, while the abundance of mobile invertebrates and economic value decreased, corresponding mainly to the contrasting water mass characteristics of the Maine Coastal Current system (i.e., summertime current direction, speed, and temperature). Integrating modeled predictions with existing GIS layers for abiotic conditions allowed us to scale up important assemblage attributes to define key foundational ecological principles of MSP and to find priority regions where some bottom-disturbing activities would have minimal impact to benthic assemblages. We conclude that abiotic proxies can be strong forcing functions for the assembly of marine communities and therefore useful tools for spatial extrapolations of marine assemblages in congested (heavily used) nearshore habitats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial‐Uniformity–Driven Bayesian Optimization for Rapid Development of Printed Perovskite Solar Cells

Printed metal halide perovskites can enable rapid, roll-to-roll manufacturing of a broad class of optoelectronics—flexible solar cells and imagers among them—while promising cost and speed advantages over incumbent silicon. However, though current methods offer high throughput and patterning capabilities, perovskite films’ spatial heterogeneity remains a challenge for large-area devices. Here, a spatial-uniformity-driven Bayesian optimization (BO) approach is leveraged to accelerate the development of printed perovskite solar cells and improve large-area device performance. Using a BO surrogate model, a 6D design space of ink chemistry and printing physics is explored via extensive iterative experimentation (≈100) informed by an objective function capturing spatial photoluminescence (PL) variance. It is discovered that optimizing for uniformity drives rapid advances in photovoltaic performance, yielding ≈20% power conversion efficiency (PCE) for small area (0.134 cm 2 ) devices and > 16% for large area (1 cm 2 ) devices. This machine-learning approach simultaneously enables rheological comparison of ink formulations that accelerate the leveling of Saffman-Taylor artifacts and improve film uniformity. Here, this showcases uniformity-driven BO as an efficient approach for uncovering the key printing physics and mitigating spatial heterogeneity to enable device scaling beyond small cell areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Spatially-resolved soot evolution and statistics in high-pressure diesel spray flames using two-color pyrometry

Previous studies of diesel spray flames have focused on details of the sooting behavior mainly during the quasi-steady period, but few have considered the spatially-resolved transient evolution in combination with injection-to-injection variations. In this study, a 500-injection data set is utilized to investigate the temporal evolution of a spray flame during auto-ignition, the premixed burn phase, and the quasi-steady period. Spatially-resolved OH* chemiluminescence data provide ignition delay times and reaction zone locations. Two-color pyrom-etry with a vastly improved optical system is used to quantify spatially-resolved soot evolution and its statistical variations. The ambient thermodynamic con-ditions are slightly below those in modern diesel engines, resulting in longer lift-off lengths and lower overall soot production. Spatially, soot formation in the lift-off region is small, but appreciable soot forms in the jet core and jet head regions, while it oxidizes gradually on the jet periphery. Total soot mass profiles indicate that regions with larger local soot mass take longer to form, but are the first to oxidize. Probability distributions of soot mass in localized regions indicate that a few injections with high soot mass bias the average soot mass data towards higher values. Altogether, results show good agreement with previous studies employing different diagnostic techniques while providing statistical details of transient and localized soot behavior in high pressure diesel spray flames in support of the related modeling efforts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Spatial associations between social groups and ozone air pollution exposure in the Beijing urban area

Highlights: • Greater percentages of persons living alone and migrants were associated with higher O{sub 3} exposure. • Social groups divided by Hukou status had distinct spatial distributions in the Beijing urban area. • Migrants bore a double burden of social deprivation and O{sub 3} exposure due to city development planning and the Hukou system. • Areas with greater percentages of seniors had lower O{sub 3} exposure but higher NO{sub 2} exposure. Few studies have linked social factors to air pollution exposure in China. Unlike the race or minority concepts in western countries, the Hukou system (residential registration system) is a fundamental reason for the existence of social deprivation in China. To assess the differences in ozone (O{sub 3}) exposure among social groups, especially groups divided by Hukou status, we assigned estimates of O{sub 3} exposure to the latest census data of the Beijing urban area using a kriging interpolation model. We developed simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models that account for spatial autocorrelation to identify the associations between O{sub 3} exposure and social factors. Principal component regression was used to control the multicollinearity bias as well as explore the spatial structure of the social data. The census tracts (CTs) with higher proportions of persons living alone and migrants with non-local Hukou were characterized by greater exposure to ambient O{sub 3}. The areas with greater proportions of seniors had lower O{sub 3} exposure. The spatial distribution patterns were similar among variables including migrants, agricultural population and household separation (population status with separation between Hukou and actual residences), which fit the demographic characteristics of the majority of migrants. Migrants bore a double burden of social deprivation and O{sub 3} pollution exposure due to city development planning and the Hukou system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic reconstruction of fracture network pattern using spatial point processes

Fracture spatial patterns can strongly affect fluid flow in the subsurface. Proximity and distribution of fractures control reservoir flow behavior over various length scales. In many studies, however, simplified geometrical patterns are generated for fractures which may lead to unrealistic subsurface models. Here we introduce a new method for characterization and modeling of fracture spatial patterns based on outcrop observations. We use Ripley's K-function to characterize the arrangement of fracture barycenters and intersection points over various length scales. In addition, we use semivariograms to quantify spatial correlation in fracture intensity maps. Using this information, we develop a stochastic algorithm that generates two-dimensional fracture network realizations with spatial properties similar to those of a real fracture network measured in the field. Numerical simulation models indicate that the generated fracture realizations exhibit similar flow behaviors as that of the original fracture network. Furthermore, such modeling tools expand and improve our capability in building representative fracture models and in quantification of uncertainty in naturally and hydraulically fractured reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Determining Spatial Resolution of Gamma Cameras Using MATLAB

It is important to monitor the spatial resolution of a gamma camera on a weekly basis to acquire medical images with accurate quantitative information. A simple and fast computer program with a graphical user interface to analyze spatial resolution was successfully developed using MATLAB. The results were compared with those obtained from the standard processing system available in our gamma camera. The spatial resolution calculated using MATLAB was 1.24% lower than using the standard processing system. The developed program is cost effective, faster, and provides an easy platform for the physicists and technologists to analyze the spatial resolution based on the image of the line source.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Imaging of the Li spatial distribution within V 2 O 5 cathode in a coin cell by neutron computed tomography

An understanding of Lithium (Li) spatial distribution within the electrodes of a Li-ion cell, during charge and discharge cycles, is essential to optimize the electrode parameters for increased performance under cycling. In this work, it is demonstrated that the spatial distribution of Li within Vanadium Pentoxide (V 2 O 5 ) electrodes of a small coin cell can be imaged by neutron computed tomography. The neutron attenuation data has been used to construct the three-dimensional Li spatial images. Specifically, it is shown that there is sufficient neutron imaging contrast between lithiated and delithiated regions of V 2 O 5 electrode making it possible to map Li distributions even in small electrodes with thicknesses <1 mm. The images reveal that the Li spatial distribution is inhomogeneous and a relatively higher C-rate leads to more non-uniform Li distribution after Li insertion. The non-uniform distribution suggests the limitation of Li diffusion within the electrode during the lithiation process under the relatively high cycling rates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Evaluation of the spatial self-shielding impact for TRISO-based nuclear fuel depletion

Reactor physics analyses of nuclear cores with nuclear fuel concepts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles, such as pebbles or compact fuel elements, rely on various degrees of simplification to keep these highly heterogeneous problems computationally tractable. One such limitation regards the level of spatial discretization employed during burnup calculations, where traditionally only a limited number of spatial zones are modeled at the full core level and assume that the spectrum is constant within the fuel elements and TRISO particles in this depletion zone. This type of assumption neglects the impact of spatial self-shielding effect within the kernels (microscale level) as well as within the compact or pebbles (mesoscale level). Furthermore, the Monte Carlo code Serpent 2 contains many relevant features for efficiently modeling this type of geometry, including a collision-based domain decomposition intended for very large burnup calculations, which we leveraged for this work to quantify the impact of capturing neutron flux variations occurring at the micro- and mesoscale level on a series of high-temperature gas-cooled reactor fuel element depletion problems. While spatial self-shielding is observed at both scales, with differences from a volume-averaged burnup of ±7% within the kernels and ±2% between TRISO particles within the fuel element, the conjugated effect on nuclide inventories and multiplication factor are negligible, hence confirming that assuming a single average spectrum value may be sufficient for most applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Spatial impacts of technological innovations on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind power plants in the United States

Recent studies predict significant decreases in the future levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of offshore wind energy, much of which is attributed to anticipated cost reductions from technological innovation. This study evaluates the spatial variability of LCOE caused by technology-induced decreases in a range of capital, operational, and financial cost categories. A spatial cost model of fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind plants is used to model the impact across thousands of potential United States sites. A specified change in an individual turbine subsystem cost produces a range of LCOE outcomes due to the varying geospatial characteristics of the considered sites and the nonlinear, interactive dependency on these input parameters; for example, a 10.8% improvement in net capacity factor can reduce LCOE by between 6% and 20% at different sites. This work expands upon the existing offshore wind literature, which typically evaluates cost sensitivities at a single site and does not consider the spatial variance in LCOE. The results suggest that the impact of technological innovations can be considerable and should be considered on a spatial as well as temporal basis when prioritizing technology innovation research or funding decisions to advance offshore wind technologies in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Bayesian model for multivariate discrete data using spatial and expert information with application to inferring building attributes

When modeling sparsely observed multivariate data, strong prior information elicited from experts can be used to bolster predictive accuracy and counteract sampling bias. Similarly, modeling autocorrelation in space can help make use of co-occurrence patterns present in many types of spatial data. To make use of both expert prior information and spatial structure, we propose a novel graphical model for a spatial Bayesian network developed specifically to address challenges in inferring the attributes of buildings from geographically sparse observational data. This model is implemented as the sum of a spatial multivariate Gaussian random field and a tabular conditional probability function in real-valued space prior to projection onto the probability simplex. This modeling form is especially suitable for the usage of prior information in the form of sets of atomic rules obtained from experts. To perform inference with missing data, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme composed of alternating steps of Gibbs sampling of missing entries and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for model parameters. A case study in building attribution is presented to highlight the advantages and limitations of this approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Understanding electric vehicle ownership using data fusion and spatial modeling

The global shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) for climate sustainability lacks comprehensive insights into the impact of the built environment on EV ownership, especially in varying spatial contexts. This study, focusing on New York State, integrates data fusion techniques across diverse datasets to examine the influence of socioeconomic and built environmental factors on EV ownership. The utilization of spatial regression models reveals consistent coefficient values, highlighting the robustness of the results, with the Spatial Lag model better at capturing spatial autocorrelation. Further, results underscore the significance of charging stations within a 10-mile radius, indicative of a preference for convenient charging options influencing EV ownership decisions. Factors like higher education levels, lower rental populations, and concentrations of older population align with increased EV ownership. Utilizing publicly available data offers a more accessible avenue for understanding EV ownership across regions, complementing traditional survey approaches.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The effect of a transducer’s spatial averaging on an elastodynamic guided wave’s wavenumber spectrum

Elastodynamic guided waves propagate in an elastic solid which makes it difficult, if not impractical, to place a receiving transducer in the direct path of the propagating wave (as one would for an acoustic wave in a fluid medium). Thus, to account for this, receiving transducers are often placed on the surface of the solid waveguide such that the transducer surface is parallel to the wave propagation direction. This transducer orientation introduces spatial averaging, which causes the received signal to have an altered signal amplitude and mode bias. We investigate both of these effects and present a simple model from which we derive a scaling-ratio expression that describes the effects of spatial averaging. Furthermore, we then test its performance using finite-element simulations that incorporate “real-world” assumptions (e.g., transient waves, piezoelectric effects, etc.). The results from the simulations demonstrate that the scaling-ratio can characterize the effects resulting from spatial averaging. The scaling-ratio expression will be particularly useful when designing experiments involving high frequency (small wavelength) guided waves. Lastly, the proposed scaling-ratio expression could be applied to other sensing methods, like Laser Doppler Vibrometry (LDV) or piezoelectric waveguides with inter-digitated transducers, because of its generality. However, the authors are careful to note that the scaling-ratio expression is not intended as a replacement of multi-physics analysis or good experimental design, and the effects of spatial averaging should be avoided whenever possible.

2DFFT↗

2D perovskite-based high spatial resolution X-ray detectors

Abstract X-ray radiography is the most widely used imaging technique with applications encompassing medical and industrial imaging, homeland security, and materials research. Although a significant amount of research and development has gone into improving the spatial resolution of the current state-of-the-art indirect X-ray detectors, it is still limited by the detector thickness and microcolumnar structure quality. This paper demonstrates high spatial resolution X-ray imaging with solution-processable two-dimensional hybrid perovskite single-crystal scintillators grown inside microcapillary channels as small as 20 µm. These highly scalable non-hygroscopic detectors demonstrate excellent spatial resolution similar to the direct X-ray detectors. X-ray imaging results of a camera constructed using this scintillator show Modulation Transfer Function values significantly better than the current state-of-the-art X-ray detectors. These structured detectors open up a new era of low-cost large-area ultrahigh spatial resolution high frame rate X-ray imaging with numerous applications.

2D perovskite↗

Influence of excited state spatial distributions on plasma diagnostics: Atmospheric pressure laser-induced He-H{sub 2} plasma

Atmospheric pressure plasmas in helium-hydrogen mixtures with H{sub 2} molar concentrations ranging from 0.13% to 19.7% were investigated at times from 1 to 25 {mu}s after formation by a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser. Spatially integrated electron density values are obtained using time resolved optical emission spectroscopic techniques. Depending on mixture concentration and delay time, electron densities vary from almost 10{sup 17} cm{sup -3} to about 10{sup 14} cm{sup -3}. Helium based results agree reasonably well with each other, as do values extracted from the H{sub {alpha}} and H{sub {beta}} emission lines. However, in particular for delays up to about 7 {mu}s and in mixtures with less than 1% hydrogen, large discrepancies are observed between results obtained from the two species. Differences decrease with increasing hydrogen partial pressure and/or increasing delay time. In mixtures with molecular hydrogen fraction of 7% or more, all methods yield electron densities that are in good agreement. These findings seemingly contradict the well-established idea that addition of small amounts of hydrogen for diagnostic purposes does not perturb the plasma. Using Abel inversion analysis of the experimental data and a semi-empirical numerical model, we demonstrate that the major part of the detected discrepancies can be traced to differences in the spatial distributions of excited helium and hydrogen neutrals. The model yields spatially resolved emission intensities and electron density profiles that are in qualitative agreement with experiment. For the test case of a 1% H{sub 2} mixture at 5 {mu}s delay, our model suggests that high electron temperatures cause an elevated degree of ionization and thus a reduction of excited hydrogen concentration relative to that of helium near the plasma center. As a result, spatially integrated analysis of hydrogen emission lines leads to oversampling of the plasma perimeter and thus to lower electron density values compared to those obtained from helium lines.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗