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NASA NTRS1996

An Independent Evaluation of the FMEA/CIL Hazard Analysis Alternative Study

The present instruments of safety and reliability risk control for a majority of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs/projects consist of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Critical Items List (CIL), and Hazard Report (HR). This extensive analytical approach was introduced in the early 1970's and was implemented for the Space Shuttle Program by NHB 5300.4 (1D-2. Since the Challenger accident in 1986, the process has been expanded considerably and resulted in introduction of similar and/or duplicated activities in the safety/reliability risk analysis. A study initiated in 1995, to search for an alternative to the current FMEA/CIL Hazard Analysis methodology generated a proposed method on April 30, 1996. The objective of this Summer Faculty Study was to participate in and conduct an independent evaluation of the proposed alternative to simplify the present safety and reliability risk control procedure.

Ray, Paul S.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Heliocentric Escape and Lunar Impact from Near Rectilinear Halo Orbits

Spacecraft departing from the Gateway in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) experience gravitational forces from the Moon, the Earth, and the Sun, all of which can be simultaneously significant. These complex dynamics influence the post-separation risk of recontact with the Gateway and the eventual destinations of the departing spacecraft. The current investigation examines the flow of objects leaving NRHOs in the Bicircular Restricted Four-Body Problem, and results are applied to heliocentric escape and lunar impact trajectories in a higher-fidelity ephemeris model. Separation maneuver magnitude, direction, and location are correlated with risk of recontact with the Gateway and successful departure to various destinations.

Davis, Diane C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

NASA Lewis Launch Collision Probability Model Developed and Analyzed

There are nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the earth. These objects encompass manned objects, active and decommissioned satellites, spent rocket bodies, and debris. They range from a few centimeters across to the size of the MIR space station. Anytime a new satellite is launched, the launch vehicle with its payload attached passes through an area of space in which these objects orbit. Although the population density of these objects is low, there always is a small but finite probability of collision between the launch vehicle and one or more of these space objects. Even though the probability of collision is very low, for some payloads even this small risk is unacceptable. To mitigate the small risk of collision associated with launching at an arbitrary time within the daily launch window, NASA performs a prelaunch mission assurance Collision Avoidance Analysis (or COLA). For the COLA of the Cassini spacecraft, the NASA Lewis Research Center conducted an in-house development and analysis of a model for launch collision probability. The model allows a minimum clearance criteria to be used with the COLA analysis to ensure an acceptably low probability of collision. If, for any given liftoff time, the nominal launch vehicle trajectory would pass a space object with less than the minimum required clearance, launch would not be attempted at that time. The model assumes that the nominal positions of the orbiting objects and of the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time, and therefore, that any tracked object that comes within close proximity of the launch vehicle can be identified. For any such pair, these nominal positions can be used to calculate a nominal miss distance. The actual miss distances may differ substantially from the nominal miss distance, due, in part, to the statistical uncertainty of the knowledge of the objects positions. The model further assumes that these position uncertainties can be described with position covariance matrices. With these, and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution for the probability of collision is obtained. This solution provides clear insights into how each of the independent parameters affects the probability of collision. It shows that for a given maximum probability of collision and prior knowledge of the objects position uncertainties and sizes, only knowledge of the nominal closest approach distance is required to make the launch/no launch decision. The model was completed and used for the mission assurance COLA analysis for the Cassini spacecraft, which was launched on a Titan IV/Centaur rocket on October 15, 1997. Although the model was specifically developed for the Cassini mission, it is clearly applicable for other launches as well. The effect of COLA closures on the launch window is shown. The bar represents the entire 140-min launch window on October 15, 1997; the blackened areas represent the loss of launch opportunities due to the potential for a collision with an orbiting object.

Bollenbacher, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1995

The role of small missions in planetary and lunar exploration

The Space Studies Board of the National Research Council charged its Committee on Planetary and Lunar Exploration (COMPLEX) to (1) examine the degree to which small missions, such as those fitting within the constraints of the Discovery program, can achieve priority objectives in the lunar and planetary sciences; (2) determine those characteristics, such as level of risk, flight rate, target mix, university involvement, technology development, management structure and procedures, and so on, that could allow a successful program; (3) assess issues, such as instrument selection, mission operations, data analysis, and data archiving, to ensure the greatest scientific return from a particular mission, given a rapid deployment schedule and a tightly constrained budget; and (4) review past programmatic attempts to establish small planetary science mission lines, including the Planetary Observers and Planetary Explorers, and consider the impact management practices have had on such programs. A series of small missions presents the planetary science community with the opportunity to expand the scope of its activities and to develop the potential and inventiveness of its members in ways not possible within the confines of large, traditional programs. COMPLEX also realized that a program of small planetary missions was, in and of itself, incapable of meeting all of the prime objectives contained in its report 'An Integrated Strategy for the Planetary Sciences: 1995-2010.' Recommendations are provided for the small planetary missions to fulfill their promise.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2017

Programmatic Considerations to Reduce the Risk of Adverse Renal Stone Events in Spaceflight

Introduction: Microgravity exposure may alter the likelihood that astronauts will experience renal stones. The potential risk includes both acute and chronic health issues, with the potential for significant impact on mission objectives. Methods: To understand the role of the NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) research agenda in both preventing and addressing renal stones in spaceflight, current astronaut epidemiologic data and a summary of programmatic considerations are reviewed. Results: Although there has never been a symptomatic renal stone event in a U.S. crewmember during spaceflight, urine chemistry has been altered - likely due to induced changes in renal physiology as a result of exposure to microgravity. This may predispose astronauts to stone formation, leading the HRP to conduct and sponsor research to: 1) understand the risk of stone formation in space; 2) prevent stones from forming; and 3) address stones that may form by providing novel diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. Discussion: The development of a renal stone during spaceflight is a significant medical concern that requires the HRP to minimize this risk by providing the ability to prevent, diagnose, monitor and treat the condition during spaceflight. A discussion of the risk as NASA understands it is followed by an overview of the multiple mitigations currently under study, including novel ultrasound techniques for stone detection and manipulation, and how they may function as part of a larger exploration medical system.

Antonsen, Erik↗

NASA NTRS2017

Near Earth Asteroid Characterization for Threat Assessment

Physical characteristics of NEAs are an essential input to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry and to assess the risk of impact but determining these properties requires a non-trivial investment of time and resources. The characteristics relevant to these models include size, density, strength and ablation coefficient. Some of these characteristics cannot be directly measured, but rather must be inferred from related measurements of asteroids and/or meteorites. Furthermore, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project at NASA Ames Research Center has developed a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model in order to assess the risk of asteroid impact. Our PAIR model and its use to develop probability distributions of impact risk are discussed in other contributions to PDC 2017 (e.g., Mathias et al.). Here we utilize PAIR to investigate which NEA characteristics are important for assessing the impact threat by investigating how changes in these characteristics alter the damage predicted by PAIR. We will also provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge of the NEA characteristics of importance for asteroid threat assessment. The relative importance of different properties as identified using PAIR will be combined with our assessment of the current state of knowledge to identify potential high impact investigations. In addition, we will discuss an ongoing effort to collate the existing measurements of NEA properties of interest to the planetary defense community into a readily accessible database.

Asteroid characterization↗

NASA NTRS1994

Stochastic decision analysis

Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given amount of the best score. Formulas are also derived for the probability that one concept's total score is within a given amount of a second concept's total score. These probabilistic calculations provide more realistic data entry and output information for designers, enabling designers to better determine which concepts to eliminate and which concepts to retain at the decision points of each design phase.

Lacksonen, Thomas A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Advanced Refrigerator/Freezer Technology Development. Technology Assessment

The NASA Lewis Research Center, through contract with Oceaneering Space Systems, is engaged in a project to develop advanced refrigerator/freezer (R/F) technologies for future Life and Biomedical Sciences space flight missions. The first phase of this project, a technology assessment, has been completed to identify the advanced R/F technologies needed and best suited to meet the requirements for the five R/F classifications specified by Life and Biomedical Science researchers. Additional objectives of the technology assessment were to rank those technologies based on benefit and risk, and to recommend technology development activities that can be accomplished within this project. This report presents the basis, the methodology, and results of the R/F technology assessment, along with technology development recommendations.

Gaseor, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2008

RT-MATRIX: Measuring Total Organic Carbon by Photocatalytic Oxidation of Volatile Organic Compounds

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) inevitably accumulate in enclosed habitats such as the International Space Station and the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) as a result of human metabolism, material off-gassing, and leaking equipment. Some VOCs can negatively affect the quality of the crew's life, health, and performance; and consequently, the success of the mission. Air quality must be closely monitored to ensure a safe living and working environment. Currently, there is no reliable air quality monitoring system that meets NASA's stringent requirements for power, mass, volume, or performance. The ultimate objective of the project -- the development of a Real-Time, Miniaturized, Autonomous Total Risk Indicator System (RT.MATRIX).is to provide a portable, dual-function sensing system that simultaneously determines total organic carbon (TOC) and individual contaminants in air streams.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2009

Psychomotor Vigilance Self Test on ISS (Reaction Self Test on Expeditions 21 and 22)

The experiment addresses the following high-priority NASA Risk Gaps in the Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) area: 1) Identify brief, valid objective measures of changes in cognitive functions during spaceflight that astronauts can use with minimal burden. 2) Find a practical objective aid for astronauts to quickly identify and manage the effects of fatigue (from sleep loss, circadian disruptions, workload and other factors) on their performance during space flight.

Dinges, David F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ablative Rocket Deflector Testing and Computational Modeling

A deflector risk mitigation program was recently conducted at the NASA Stennis Space Center. The primary objective was to develop a database that characterizes the behavior of industry-grade refractory materials subjected to rocket plume impingement conditions commonly experienced on static test stands. The program consisted of short and long duration engine tests where the supersonic exhaust flow from the engine impinged on an ablative panel. Quasi time-dependent erosion depths and patterns generated by the plume impingement were recorded for a variety of different ablative materials. The erosion behavior was found to be highly dependent on the material s composition and corresponding thermal properties. For example, in the case of the HP CAST 93Z ablative material, the erosion rate actually decreased under continued thermal heating conditions due to the formation of a low thermal conductivity "crystallization" layer. The "crystallization" layer produced near the surface of the material provided an effective insulation from the hot rocket exhaust plume. To gain further insight into the complex interaction of the plume with the ablative deflector, computational fluid dynamic modeling was performed in parallel to the ablative panel testing. The results from the current study demonstrated that locally high heating occurred due to shock reflections. These localized regions of shock-induced heat flux resulted in non-uniform erosion of the ablative panels. In turn, it was observed that the non-uniform erosion exacerbated the localized shock heating causing eventual plume separation and reversed flow for long duration tests under certain conditions. Overall, the flow simulations compared very well with the available experimental data obtained during this project.

Allgood, Daniel C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Results of Lunar Impact Observations During Geminid Meteor Shower Events

Meteoroids are natural particles with origins from comets, asteroids, and planets from within the solar system. On average, 33 metric tons (73,000 lb) of meteoroids hit Earth everyday with velocities ranging between 20 and 72 km/s. However, the vast majority of these meteoroids disintegrate in the atmosphere and never make it to the ground. The Moon also encounters the same meteoroid flux, but has no atmosphere to stop them from striking the surface. At such speeds even a small meteoroid has incredible energy. A meteoroid with a mass of only 5 kg can excavate a crater over 9 m across, hurling 75 metric tons (165,000 lb) of lunar soil and rock on ballistic trajectories above the lunar surface. Meteoroids with particle sizes as small as 100 micrometer (1 Microgram) can do considerable damage to spacecraft in Earth's orbit and beyond. Impacts can damage thermal protection systems, radiators, windows, and pressurized containers. Secondary effects might include partial penetration or pitting, local deformation, and surface degradation that can cause a failure upon reentry. The speed, mass, density, and flux of meteoroids are important factors for design considerations and mitigation during operations. Lunar operations (unmanned and manned) are also adversely affected by the meteoroid flux. Ejecta from meteoroid impacts is also part of the lunar environment and must be characterized. Understanding meteoroid fluxes and the associated risk of meteoroids impacting spacecraft traveling in and beyond Earth's orbit is the objective of the Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) located at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). One of the MEO's programs is meteoroid impact monitoring of the Moon. The large collecting area of the night side of the lunar disk provides statistically significant counts of meteoroids that can provide useful information about the flux of meteoroids in the hundreds of grams to kilograms size range. This information is not only important for characterizing the lunar environment associated with larger lunar impactors, but also provides statistical data for verification and improving meteoroid prediction models. Current meteoroid models indicate that the Moon is struck by a sporadic meteoroid with a mass greater than 1 kg over 260 times per year. This number is very uncertain since observations for objects in this mass range are few. Factors of several times, higher or lower, are easily possible. Meteor showers are also present to varying degrees at certain times of the year. The Earth experiences meteor showers when encountering the debris left behind by comets, which is also the case with 2 the Moon. During such times, the rate of shower meteoroids can greatly exceed that of the sporadic background rate for larger meteoroids. Looking for meteor shower impacts on the Moon at about the same time as they occur on Earth will yield important data that can be fed into meteor shower forecasting models, which can then be used to predict times of greater meteoroid hazard on the Moon. The Geminids are one such meteor shower of interest. The Geminids are a major meteor shower that occur in December with a peak intensity occurring usually during the 13th and 14th of the month and appearing to come from a radiant in the constellation Gemini. The Geminids are interesting in that the parent body of the debris stream is an asteroid, which along with the Quadrantids, are the only major meteor showers not originating from a comet. The Geminids parent body, 3200 Phaethon, is about 5 km in diameter and has an orbit that has a 22deg inclination which intersects the main asteroid belt and has a perihelion less than half of Mercury's perihelion distance. Thus, its orbit crosses those of Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury. The Geminid debris stream is by far the most massive as compared to the others. When the Earth passes through the stream in mid-December, a peak intensity of approx. equal 120 meteors per hour can be seen. Because of the Geminids' relatively large intensity and unique origin, it is important to monitor and gain information about the Geminids so as to improve their forecasts and understand their contribution to the meteoroid environment in Earth's orbit and at the Moon. It is the purpose of this Technical Memorandum (TM) to document two lunar observing periods coinciding with the Geminid meteor showers that occurred in 2006 and 2010.

Suggs, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Injury Risk Assessment of Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) Phase VI and Series 4000 Gloves During Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Hand Manipulation Tasks

Functional Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs) with high precision gloves are essential for the success of Extravehicular Activity (EVA). Previous research done at NASA has shown that total strength capabilities and performance are reduced when wearing a pressurized EMU. The goal of this project was to characterize the human-space suit glove interaction and assess the risk of injury during common EVA hand manipulation tasks, including pushing, pinching and gripping objects. A custom third generation sensor garment was designed to incorporate a combination of sensors, including force sensitive resistors, strain gauge sensors, and shear force sensors. The combination of sensors was used to measure the forces acting on the finger nails, finger pads, finger tips, as well as the knuckle joints. In addition to measuring the forces, data was collected on the temperature, humidity, skin conductance, and blood perfusion of the hands. Testing compared both the Phase VI and Series 4000 glove against an ungloved condition. The ungloved test was performed wearing the sensor garment only. The project outcomes identified critical landmarks that experienced higher workloads and are more likely to suffer injuries. These critical landmarks varied as a function of space suit glove and task performed. The results showed that less forces were acting on the hands while wearing the Phase VI glove as compared to wearing the Series 4000 glove. Based on our findings, the engineering division can utilize these methods for optimizing the current space suit glove and designing next generation gloves to prevent injuries and optimize hand mobility and comfort.

Kilby, Melissa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA JSC Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Office

- HVIT’s operational objectives for NASA, commercial, and international partners are to 1) help to define MMOD risk requirements 2) provide assessments that identify risk drivers for a specific spacecraft design, and 3) work to design and optimize shielding technologies based on increasing performance and reducing mass. - The use of Bumper-code underpins all risk assessments provided by HVIT – by using a complete FEM model, Bumper can provide a wholistic view of risk for a given design and mission profile. - A full risk assessment, however, requires an iterative approach, where Bumper is first used to identify potential risk drivers. Subsequent analysis can focus on iterating the shield design in highest risk areas. And may include the refinement of BLEs through testing, design modification, or reexamination of the failure criteria. - HVIT utilizes a wide-range of expertise to provide the most accurate risk assessments possible – areas of active research are highlighted below.

hypervelocity impact↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human-Autonomy Teaming Assistant to Support Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems for Wildland Firefighting Operations

An exploratory human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to investigate and characterize a Human-Autonomy Teaming (HAT) Assistant to support a remote operator of multiple small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (sUAS) using a ground control station (GCS) in the context of a wildland fire surveillance mission. Operator performance using the GCS with the HAT Assistant (Assisted Mode) was compared to operator performance using the GCS without the HAT Assistant (Unassisted Mode) during two types of contingency-event scenarios (Low and High Complexity). In the Assisted Mode, the HAT Assistant provided updates to the level of risk to the mission along with recommendations for risk mitigation, which were not provided in the Unassisted Mode. No significant differences in objective performance and subjective ratings of workload, situation awareness, and trust in automation between the Assisted and Unassisted Modes were detected, however there were indications that participants preferred the Assisted GCS over the Unassisted GCS and directions for further development were explored. Additional work is necessary to further refine the HAT Assistant and better characterize its effects on remote operator performance while managing multiple sUAS assets. Future work is recommended to optimize the implementation of an assistant to support operator performance during different missions and across vehicle classes.

Human-Autonomy Teaming↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human-Autonomy Teaming Assistant to Support Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems for Wildland Firefighting Operations

Human-Autonomy Teaming↗

NASA NTRS2018

Towards a Rigorous Basis for Specific Operations Risk Assessment of UAS

The Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) guidance represents the consensus of various national aviation authorities on a common process to identify, qualitatively assess, and manage the safety risk posed by unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), when preparing the safety case required for regulatory approval to conduct certain types of operations. As such, it can be considered a de facto standard, being increasingly adopted by various relevant stakeholders. This paper first gives an overview of the SORA process and associated methods, identifying a number of inconsistencies in risk identification and assessment, also discussing plausible strategies to close the associated gaps. Then, we give a well-founded basis for the applicable concepts, such as barrier integrity, assurance, and robustness, following which we present a preliminary and simple probabilistic formalization of the underpinning barrier-based safety model. We illustrate our overall approach through a worked example, also discussing how a Bayesian framework can facilitate extending and enhancing our initial formalization. We conclude with a discussion of the opportunities afforded by our approach, such as a well-founded basis for barrier selection, whilst addressing the associated challenges. The main objective of this work is to complement the current SORA guidance through a principled, mathematicallybased approach to risk assessment, particularly when it is applied to higher-risk operational concepts that warrant greater rigor in safety assessment and assurance.

Safety Cases↗

NASA NTRS2000

Overcoming Dynamic Disturbances in Imaging Systems

We develop and discuss a methodology with the potential to yield a significant reduction in complexity, cost, and risk of space-borne optical systems in the presence of dynamic disturbances. More robust systems almost certainly will be a result as well. Many future space-based and ground-based optical systems will employ optical control systems to enhance imaging performance. The goal of the optical control subsystem is to determine the wavefront aberrations and remove them. Ideally reducing an aberrated image of the object under investigation to a sufficiently clear (usually diffraction-limited) image. Control will likely be distributed over several elements. These elements may include telescope primary segments, telescope secondary, telescope tertiary, deformable mirror(s), fine steering mirror(s), etc. The last two elements, in particular, may have to provide dynamic control. These control subsystems may become elaborate indeed. But robust system performance will require evaluation of the image quality over a substantial range and in a dynamic environment. Candidate systems for improvement in the Earth Sciences Enterprise could include next generation Landsat systems or atmospheric sensors for dynamic imaging of individual, severe storms. The technology developed here could have a substantial impact on the development of new systems in the Space Science Enterprise; such as the Next Generation Space Telescope(NGST) and its follow-on the Next NGST. Large Interferometric Systems of non-zero field, such as Planet Finder and Submillimeter Probe of the Evolution of Cosmic Structure, could benefit. These systems most likely will contain large, flexible optomechanical structures subject to dynamic disturbance. Furthermore, large systems for high resolution imaging of planets or the sun from space may also benefit. Tactical and Strategic Defense systems will need to image very small targets as well and could benefit from the technology developed here. We discuss a novel speckle imaging technique with the potential to separate dynamic aberrations from static aberrations. Post-processing of a set of image data, using an algorithm based on this technique, should work for all but the lowest light levels and highest frequency dynamic environments. This technique may serve to reduce the complexity of the control system and provide for robust, fault-tolerant, reduced risk operation. For a given object, a short exposure image is "frozen" on the focal plane in the presence of the environmental disturbance (turbulence, jitter, etc.). A key factor is that this imaging data exhibits frame-to-frame linear shift invariance. Therefore, although the Point Spread Function is varying from frame to frame, the source is fixed; and each short exposure contains object spectrum data out to the diffraction limit of the imaging system. This novel speckle imaging technique uses the Knox-Thompson method. The magnitude of the complex object spectrum is straightforward to determine by well-established approaches. The phase of the complex object spectrum is decomposed into two parts. One is a single-valued function determined by the divergence of the optical phase gradient. The other is a multi-valued function determined by the circulation of the optical phase gradient-"hidden phase." Finite difference equations are developed for the phase. The novelty of this approach is captured in the inclusion of this "hidden phase." This technique allows the diffraction-limited reconstruction of the object from the ensemble of short exposure frames while simultaneously estimating the phase as a function of time from a set of exposures.

Young, Eric W.↗