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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of Mars CO2 Capture and Gas Separation Technologies

Recent national policy statements have established that the ultimate destination of NASA's human exploration program is Mars. In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) is a key technology required to ,enable such missions and it is appropriate to review progress in this area and continue to advance the systems required to produce rocket propellant, oxygen, and other consumables on Mars using the carbon dioxide atmosphere and other potential resources. The Mars Atmospheric Capture and Gas separation project is selecting, developing, and demonstrating techniques to capture and purify Martian atmospheric gases for their utilization for the production of hydrocarbons, oxygen, and water in ISRU systems. Trace gases will be required to be separated from Martian atmospheric gases to provide pure CO2 to processing elements. In addition, other Martian gases, such as nitrogen and argon, occur in concentrations high enough to be useful as buffer gas and should be captured as well. To achieve these goals, highly efficient gas separation processes will be required. These gas separation techniques are also required across various areas within the ISRU project to support various consumable production processes. The development of innovative gas separation techniques will evaluate the current state-of-the-art for the gas separation required, with the objective to demonstrate and develop light-weight, low-power methods for gas separation. Gas separation requirements include, but are not limited to the selective separation of: (1) methane and water from unreacted carbon oxides (C02-CO) and hydrogen typical of a Sabatier-type process, (2) carbon oxides and water from unreacted hydrogen from a Reverse Water-Gas Shift process, (3)/carbon oxides from oxygen from a trash/waste processing reaction, and (4) helium from hydrogen or oxygen from a propellant scavenging process. Potential technologies for the separations include' freezers, selective membranes, selective solvents, polymeric sorbents, zeolites, and new technologies. This paper summarizes the results of an extensive literature review of candidate technologies for the capture and separation of CO2 and other relevant gases. This information will be used to prioritize the technologies to be developed further during this and other ISRU projects.

Muscatello, Anthony C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Illuminating the Photophysics of Oxygen Atom Transfer in Rare Earth Metal-Organic Complexes

Industrial separations of rare earth metals are reliant on selectivity based on ionic radii, which are time, energy, and resource consuming.1 The unique and discontinuous manifold of energy states associated with the f-electron configurations of the rare earth ions2 offer an opportunity to overcome some of these limitations by incorporating light into the separation process. Here, we use transient absorption spectroscopy to understand the differences in mechanism of light-initiated oxygen atom transfer (OAT) in yttrium (Y) and dysprosium (Dy) rare earth complexes. These metal-organic complexes are functionalized with hexfluoroacetyl-acetonate (hfac) and 4-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO). After light absorption in the presence of triphenyl phosphine (TPP), the NMMO in the Y-NMMO complex is replaced by the TPPO OAT reaction product. Because the Dy f-electron manifold is accessible to the ligand excited states, while there are no accessible states associated with f-electrons for Y, there are significant differences in reactivity. Transient absorption spectroscopy (TAS) was used to monitor changes after 340 nm photoexcitation of Dy/Y-NMMO or the product complex Dy/Y-TPPO. TAS is a pump-probe technique where a white light probe pulse is delayed relative to a visible pump pulse, which photoexcites a sample. Differences between the ground and excited states are monitored over time. With TAS, we access time scales from 100 fs-400 us to determine the photophysics of the complexes of interest. Photoexcitation of Y-NMMO (Fig. 1A) creates a broad photoinduced absorption (PIA) that evolves into a sharp positive feature over 4.2 ps centered at 450 nm. A secondary feature centered at 550 nm grows in with a 200 ps time constant and remains through the 5 ns time window of our experiment. Control experiments for Y-TPPO reveal that the feature at 450 nm is due to internal dynamics of the hfac ligand, while the 550 nm shoulder is due to the presence of the NMMO. Comparing kinetics at 550 nm for Y-NMMO and Dy-NMMO (Fig. 1B) shows that while Y exhibits a distinct growth in the NMMO feature, the Dy decays almost completely within 5 ns. Control experiments with Dy-TPPO prove that the ligand excited states centered on the hfac ligand are deactivated via energy transfer to the Dy manifold within 200 ps. This deactivation leads to significant differences in OAT reactivity between Y and Dy.

CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Achieving reasonable confidence in the validation of control room designs and modifications: A summary of the 2015 NEA experts' workshop - 124

Defining and achieving reasonable confidence in the validation of nuclear power plant control room designs is a complex challenge for many reasons; not the least of which is that validation is a test of strength rather than a test of truth. In 2015, the Nuclear Energy Agency, Committee for Safety of Nuclear Installations' Working Group on Human and Organizational Factors (WGHOF) hosted an experts' workshop to identify and critically examine potential means to address the challenge of achieving reasonable confidence in control room design validations. The experts' principal task was to answer four challenge questions. (1) What are the critical considerations in defining validation objectives and how do these impact achieving reasonable confidence? (2) What methods, approaches, resources, or rationales might be used for deriving performance requirements, selecting measures, and establishing acceptance criteria so as to support reasonable confidence? (3) What methods might be used to develop scenarios that maximize the amount and relevance of information in support of the validation conclusions and achieving reasonable confidence? (4) How should the validation results be aggregated and analyzed to determine the final validation conclusions? This paper provides an overview of the experts' responses to these challenges and briefly touches upon their implications for future directions. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Examining robustness of model selection with half-normal and LASSO plots for unreplicated factorial designs

When there are constraints on resources, an unreplicated factorial or fractional factorial design can allow efficient exploration of numerous factor and interaction effects. A half-normal plot is a common graphical tool used to compare the relative magnitude of effects and to identify important effects from these experiments when no estimate of error from the experiment is available. An alternative is to use a least absolute shrinkage and selection operation plot to examine the pattern of model selection terms from an experiment. We examine how both the half-normal and least absolute shrinkage and selection operation plots are impacted by the absence of individual observations or an outlier, and the robustness of conclusions obtained from these 2 techniques for identifying important effects from factorial experiments. As a result, the methods are illustrated with 2 examples from the literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Use-Inspired, Process-Oriented GCM Selection: Prioritizing Models for Regional Dynamical Downscaling

Dynamical downscaling is a crucial process for providing regional climate information for broad uses, using coarser-resolution global models to drive higher-resolution regional climate simulations. The pool of global climate models (GCMs) providing the fields needed for dynamical downscaling has increased from the previous generations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). However, with limited computational resources, the need for prioritizing the GCMs for subsequent downscaling studies remains. GCM selection for dynamical downscaling should focus on evaluating processes relevant for providing boundary conditions to the regional models and be inspired by regional uses such as the response of extremes to changes in the boundary conditions. This leads to the need for metrics representing processes of relevance to diverse stakeholders and subregions of a domain. Procedures to account for metric redundancy and the statistical distinguishability of GCM rankings are required. Further, procedures for selecting realizations from ensembles of top-performing GCM simulations can be used to span the range of climate change signals in multiple ways. As a result, distinct weighting of metrics and prioritization of particular realizations may depend on user needs. We provide high-level guidelines for such region-specific evaluations and address how CMIP7 might enable dynamical downscaling of a representative sample of high-quality models across representative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Case Study: Selection of Electrical Equipment to Be Subjected to Environmental Qualification

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway of the DOE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program focuses on advancing the state of the art in safety analysis and risk assessment to support decision-making on nuclear power plant operation well beyond the originally designed lifetime of the plants (i.e., beyond 60 years). Among the issues being addressed in RISMC is the significance of SSC aging and how confident we are about our understanding of its impact on the margin between the loads SSCs are expected to see during normal operation and accident conditions, and the SSC capacities (their ability to resist those loads) as the SSCs age. In this paper, a summary is provided of a case study that examines SSC aging from an environmental qualification (EQ) perspective. The case study illustrates how the state of knowledge regarding SSC margin can be characterized given the overall integrated plant design, and was developed to demonstrate a method for deciding on which cables to focus, which cables are not so important from an environmental qualification margin standpoint, and what plant design features or operating characteristics determine the role that environmental qualification plays in establishing a safety case on which decisions regarding margin can be made. The selection of cables for which demonstration of margin with respect to aging and environmental challenges uses a technique known as Prevention Analysis. Prevention Analysis is a Boolean method for optimal selection of SSCs (that is, those combinations of SSCs both necessary and sufficient to meet a predetermined selection criterion) in a manner that allows demonstration that plant-level safety can be demonstrated by the collection of selected SSCs alone. Choosing the set of SSCs that is necessary and sufficient to satisfy the safety objectives, and demonstrating that the safety objectives can be met effectively, determines where resources are best allocated to assure SSC performance margin. The paper describes the resulting component types that were selected by Prevention Analysis and identifies the accident sequence characteristics that cause these component types to be important from an EQ and aging perspective (and, hence, worthwhile evaluating the extent of safety margin). In addition, component types not selected as needing significant margin from an EQ and aging perspective are discussed and an engineering rationale is developed justifying the lack of need to apply resources to demonstrating margin for these component types. This rationale is in terms of design features of the plant and operating characteristics that make these component types less important from an EQ and aging perspective. While the case study focuses on EQ and aging of equipment and cables located inside the containment of this PWR, the prevention analysis method is demonstrated to be an effective technique for identification of minimal collections of components that would be effective in managing safety for a variety of issues associated with aging and long-term operation of the fleet of plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Library Services Funding Assessment

The Glenn Technical Library is a science and engineering library that primarily supports research activities at the Glenn Research Center, and provides selected services to researchers at all of the NASA research centers. Resources available in the library include books, journals, CD-ROMs, and access to various online sources, as well as live reference and inter-library loan services. The collection contains over 77,000 books, 800,000 research reports, and print or online access to over 1,400 journals. Currently the library operates within the Logistics and Technical Information Division, and is funded as an open-access resource within the GRC. Some of the research units at the GRC have recently requested that the library convert to a "pay-for-services" model, in which individual research units could fund only those journal subscriptions for which they have a specific need. Under this model, the library would always maintain a certain minimum level of pooled-expense services, including the ready reference and book collections, and inter-library loan services. Theoretically the "pay-for-services" model would encourage efficient financial allocation, and minimize the extent to which paid journal subscriptions go unused. However, this model also could potentially negate the benefits of group purchases for journal subscriptions and access. All of the major journal publishers offer package subscriptions that compare favorably in cost with the sum of individual subscription costs for a similar selection of titles. Furthermore, some of these subscription packages are "consortium" purchases that are funded collectively by the libraries at multiple NASA research centers; such consortia1 memberships would be difficult for the library to pay, if enough GRC research units were to withdraw their pooled contributions. cost of collectively-funded journal access with the cost of individual subscriptions. My primary task this summer is to create the cost dataset framework, and collect as much of the relevant data as possible. Hopefully this dataset will permit the research units at the GRC, and library administration as well, to make informed decisions about future library funding. Prior to the creation of the actual dataset, I established a comprehensive list of the library s print and online journal subscriptions. This list will be useful outside the context of the cost analysis project, as an addition to the library website. The cost analysis dataset s primary fields are: journal name, vendor, publisher, ISSN (International Standard Serial Number, to uniquely identify the titles), stand-alone price, and indication as to the presence of the journal in current GRC Technical Library consortium membership subscriptions. The dataset will hopefully facilitate comparisons between the stand-alone journal prices and the cost of shared journal subscriptions for groups of titles.

Lorig, Jonathan A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Damage Control Plan for International Space Station Recharge Tank Assembly Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel

As NASA has retired the Space Shuttle Program, a new method of transporting compressed gaseous nitrogen and oxygen needed to be created for delivery of these crucial life support resources to the International Space Station (ISS). One of the methods selected by NASA includes the use of highly pressurized, unprotected Recharge Tank Assemblies (RTAs) utilizing Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs). A COPV consists of a thin liner wrapped with a fiber composite and resin or epoxy. It is typically lighter weight than an all metal pressure vessel of similar volume and therefore provides a higher-efficiency means for gas storage. However COPVs are known to be susceptible to damage resulting from handling, tool drop impacts, or impacts from other objects. As a result, a comprehensive Damage Control Plan has been established to mitigate damage to the RTA COPV throughout its life cycle. The DCP is intended to evaluate and mitigate defined threats during manufacturing, shipping and handling, test, assembly level integration, shipment while pressurized, launch vehicle integration and mission operations by defining credible threats and methods for preventing potential damage while still maintaining the primary goal of resupplying ISS gas resources. A comprehensive threat assessment is performed to identify all threats posed to the COPV during the different phases of its lifecycle. The threat assessment is then used as the basis for creating a series of general inspection, surveillance and reporting requirements which apply across all phases of the COPV's life, targeted requirements only applicable to specific work phases and a series of training courses for both ground personnel and crew aboard the ISS. A particularly important area of emphasis deals with creating DCP requirements for a highly pressurized, large and unprotected RTA COPV for use during Inter Vehicular Activities (IVA) operations in the micro gravity environment while supplying pressurized gas to the ISS for crew life support.

Cook, Anthony J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Emergence of Life as a First-Order Phase Transition

It is well known that life on Earth alters its environment over evolutionary and geological timescales. An important open question is whether this is a result of evolutionary optimization or a universal feature of life. In the latter case, the origin of life would be coincident with a shift in environmental conditions. Here in this paper we present a model for the emergence of life in which replicators are explicitly coupled to their environment through the recycling of a finite supply of resources. The model exhibits a dynamic, first-order phase transition from nonlife to life, where the life phase is distinguished by selection on replicators. We show that environmental coupling plays an important role in the dynamics of the transition. The transition corresponds to a redistribution of matter in replicators and their environment, driven by selection on replicators, exhibiting an explosive growth in diversity as replicators are selected. The transition is accurately tracked by the mutual information shared between replicators and their environment. In the absence of successfully repartitioning system resources, the transition fails to complete, leading to the possibility of many frustrated trials before life first emerges. Often, the replicators that initiate the transition are not those that are ultimately selected. The results are consistent with the view that life's propensity to shape its environment is indeed a universal feature of replicators, characteristic of the transition from nonlife to life. We discuss the implications of these results for understanding life's emergence and evolutionary transitions more broadly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combining GWAS and population genomic analyses to characterize coevolution in a legume‐rhizobia symbiosis

Abstract The mutualism between legumes and rhizobia is clearly the product of past coevolution. However, the nature of ongoing evolution between these partners is less clear. To characterize the nature of recent coevolution between legumes and rhizobia, we used population genomic analysis to characterize selection on functionally annotated symbiosis genes as well as on symbiosis gene candidates identified through a two‐species association analysis. For the association analysis, we inoculated each of 202 accessions of the legume host Medicago truncatula with a community of 88 Sinorhizobia (Ensifer) meliloti strains. Multistrain inoculation, which better reflects the ecological reality of rhizobial selection in nature than single‐strain inoculation, allows strains to compete for nodulation opportunities and host resources and for hosts to preferentially form nodules and provide resources to some strains. We found extensive host by symbiont, that is, genotype‐by‐genotype, effects on rhizobial fitness and some annotated rhizobial genes bear signatures of recent positive selection. However, neither genes responsible for this variation nor annotated host symbiosis genes are enriched for signatures of either positive or balancing selection. This result suggests that stabilizing selection dominates selection acting on symbiotic traits and that variation in these traits is under mutation‐selection balance. Consistent with the lack of positive selection acting on host genes, we found that among‐host variation in growth was similar whether plants were grown with rhizobia or N‐fertilizer, suggesting that the symbiosis may not be a major driver of variation in plant growth in multistrain contexts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-resolution Hindcasts for U.S. Wave Energy Resource Characterization

The marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry is at an early stage of development and has the potential to play a significant role in diversifying the U.S. energy portfolio and reducing the U.S. carbon footprint. Wave energy is the largest among all the U.S. MHK energy resources, which include wave energy, ocean current, tidal-instream, ocean thermal energy conversion, and river-instream. Wave resource characterization is an essential step for regional wave energy assessments, Wave Energy Converter (WEC) project development, site selection and WEC design. The present paper provides an overview of a joint modelling effort by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories on high-resolution wave hindcasts to support the U.S. Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office’s program of wave resource characterization, assessment and classifications in all US coastal regions. Topics covered include the modelling approach, model input requirements, model validation strategies, high performance computing resource requirements, model outputs and data management strategies. Examples of model setup and validation for different regions are provided along with application to development of classification systems, and analysis of regional wave climates. Lessons learned and technical challenges of the long-term, high-resolution regional wave hindcast are discussed.

Yang, Zhaoqing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methodology to Implement a Microgrid in a University Campus

This paper presents the method we followed to design a microgrid at a university campus based on available resources. Due to introduction of renewable resources to produce energy, a methodology that allows design a microgrid in a university campus is very useful. Hence, we present a series of steps that must be carried out to estimate the resource to be used, the installation, area needed, and the capacity of the systems needed are also described. In addition, the models of the distributed resources that constitutes the microgrid are presented and explained. To validate the proposed methodology, simulations were performed using Opal-RT-LAb. As a test scenario we selected the Mayagüez campus of the University of Puerto Rico where we conducted analysis of the available resource and capacity of the systems is needed to satisfy demand of critical loads, considering a predetermined number of days of austerity. Our study results in determination of dimensions, cost and effectiveness of the microgrid. Simulations results also show that the proposed microgrid satisfy demand with the same reliability, or better, than the traditional electrical network. Additionally, the best options for this purpose are photovoltaic, batteries, and combined heat and power, if the technological advances and availability of resources to the date for Puerto Rico are considered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1975

High efficiency conical scanner for earth resources applications

A description is given of a six-arm conical scanner which was selected to provide a continuous line-of-sight scan. Two versions of the instrument are considered. The two versions differ in their weight. The weight of the heavy version is 600 lbs. A light weight design which employs beryllium and aluminum optical components weighs only 350 lbs. A multiplexer and analog-to-digital converter are to be incorporated into the design. Questions of instrument performance are also discussed.

Bates, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Facile Dehydrogenation of Ethane on the IrO 2 (110) Surface

Realizing the efficient and selective conversion of ethane to ethylene is important for improving the utilization of hydrocarbon resources, yet remains a major challenge in catalysis. Herein, ethane dehydrogenation on the IrO 2 (110) surface is investigated using temperature-programmed reaction spectroscopy (TPRS) and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The results show that ethane forms strongly bound σ-complexes on IrO 2 (110) and that a large fraction of the complexes undergo C–H bond cleavage during TPRS at temperatures below 200 K. Further, continued heating causes as much as 40% of the dissociated ethane to dehydrogenate and desorb as ethylene near 350 K, with the remainder oxidizing to CO x species. Both TPRS and DFT show that ethylene desorption is the rate-controlling step in the conversion of ethane to ethylene on IrO 2 (110) during TPRS. Partial hydrogenation of the IrO 2 (110) surface is found to enhance ethylene production from ethane while suppressing oxidation to CO x species. DFT predicts that hydrogenation of reactive oxygen atoms of the IrO 2 (110) surface effectively deactivates these sites as H atom acceptors, and causes ethylene desorption to become favored over further dehydrogenation and oxidation of ethane-derived species. Finally, the study reveals that IrO 2 (110) exhibits an exceptional ability to promote ethane dehydrogenation to ethylene near room temperature, and provides molecular-level insights for understanding how surface properties influence selectivity toward ethylene production.

bond cleavage oxidation↗
NASA NTRS1975

Remote sensing impact on corridor selection and placement

Computer-aided corridor selection techniques, utilizing digitized data bases of socio-economic, census, and cadastral data, and developed for highway corridor routing are considered. Land resource data generated from various remote sensing data sources were successfully merged with the ancillary data files of a corridor selection model and prototype highway corridors were designed using the combined data set. Remote sensing derived information considered useful for highway corridor location, special considerations in geometric correction of remote sensing data to facilitate merging it with ancillary data files, and special interface requirements are briefly discussed.

Thomson, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Skylab earth resources program

A unique space platform for studying the ocean, the land, and atmospheric phenomena of the planet earth was provided by the successful launch of Skylab on May 14, 1973. The crew members surveyed selected portions of this planet with an array of photographic, infrared, and microwave sensors. These sensors formed the Earth Resources Experiment Package (EREP). Approximately 40,000 photographs and 220,000 feet of high density magnetic tape were acquired with EREP. Details regarding the sensors are discussed along with the results obtained in the investigations.

Wilmarth, V. R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A multi-criteria land suitability assessment of field allocation decisions for switchgrass

With the goal of evaluating biomass resource availability in certain regions in the United States, the Department of Energy, Department of Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency, national laboratories, and Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, performed a resource analysis study, 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic Availability of Feedstocks, using POLYSYS model to estimate biomass potential. The study provided county- and state-level biomass potential projections, with biomass feedstock production estimates and suitability assessment of lands acreage likely to transition to energy crops. For this analysis, we estimate biomass supply by year 2028, more specifically, lands acreage transition to switchgrass in the Midwest of the United States, across 50 counties in 3 states (Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado). We propose a multi-criteria site suitability framework, to determine the potential acreage and production for switchgrass, at the field level. Site selection criteria span agronomic and ecosystem services such as previous land cover, crop rotation, soil water holding capacity, crop productivity, field efficiency, topography, soil organic matter, soil leaching propensity, distance to surface water bodies, and soil erosivity. Efficient agricultural field selection for dedicated energy crops field allocation is critical to evaluate biomass resource availability, and it is our position that estimation at the field level would provide a more accurate and useful estimation to support an emerging bioeconomy. Using field suitability scores and county-level assessments, we model land allocation decision for energy crop in the future, estimating the spatial distribution of dynamics of energy crop adoption with priority to fields scoring the highest. Additionally, compared with POLYSYS results from the report mentioned above, our method shows good performance overall, with about 2% and 1.2% of difference in switchgrass acreage allocation and crop production, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗