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DOE OSTI2024

Capturing Infrastructure Interdependencies for Power Outages Prediction During Extreme Events

As extreme weather events such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods grow in frequency and intensity, the disruption of power grid systems poses significant challenges, including widespread electrical outages, economic losses, and threats to public safety. This paper presents a forward-looking approach that leverages geographical graph-based machine learning models to predict county-level maximum power outages during such events. By capturing the intricate interdependencies within power system networks, our approach aims to provide precise and actionable predictions that can optimize emergency response efforts and enhance grid resilience. Through the integration of real-world data, including hurricane advisories and power outage records, we have trained and benchmarked multiple machine learning models, demonstrating the feasibility and potential of this method. While our initial results are promising, this paper also charts a course for advancing these models, addressing the remaining challenges, and ultimately transforming how we anticipate and respond to the impacts of extreme weather on power systems.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt) [ORNL] (ORCID:000000021317511↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector

Innovation is essential for future power systems to be safe and secure, clean and sustainable, affordable and equitable, and reliable and resilient, according to a recent National Academies report. But state regulatory reforms are needed to encourage adoption of new technologies to support evolution of the nation’s power systems.1 Berkeley Lab's report, The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector, provides consumer, labor, utility, third-party provider, and clean technology consultant perspectives on this theme. To achieve state targets for clean energy and greenhouse gas emissions, some state regulatory utility commissions are exploring new approaches to spur innovation: -For utilities, regulatory and marketing flexibility, increased funding for demonstration projects, and performance-based ratemaking including multi-year rate plans -For third parties, ways to provide utility customers with innovative products and services directly Among the questions the report addresses: 1. How are consumer advocate views evolving with respect to innovative regulatory and ratemaking approaches? 2. How can utility decarbonization and grid modernization initiatives provide opportunities for local communities and workers to receive tangible benefits and facilitate community support for siting electricity infrastructure? 3. How are electric utilities partnering with technology companies to provide innovative energy management services and sustainable energy solutions for utility customers? 4. What regulatory innovations are public utility commissions exploring to enable third-party providers to participate in the transition to a modern electric system? 5. What regulatory changes are needed to enable innovative solutions from utilities and third parties at the necessary speed and scale to meet state decarbonization goals? The report is the 13th in the Future Electric Utility Regulation series, which taps leading thinkers to tackle complex regulatory issues for electricity. 1 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. The National Academies Press.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Resilience Planning in Distribution System Planning

Electric utilities, regulators, and stakeholders face increasing risks of severe storms, freezes, floods, and heat waves damaging grid infrastructure and causing power outages—and increasing risks of utility equipment igniting wildfires. At the same time, customer electricity rates have risen substantially in recent years, due in part to replacing aging infrastructure and improving resilience to natural hazards and physical threats. To address these challenges, utilities are beginning to move beyond traditional, siloed planning processes to balance resilience with other fundamental grid objectives such as affordability, reliability, safety, and serving new loads. This study presents a framework for states and utilities that want to advance integration of resilience and distribution planning processes to improve planning efficiency, better prioritize cost-effective grid expenditures, and balance planning objectives. The framework includes 7 key integration points between these planning processes: -Strategy process -Data -Threat assessments -Solution identification and prioritization -Optimization opportunities -Consideration of other grid needs -Metrics Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reviewed utility distribution system plans and interviewed subject matter experts to identify emerging practices for each of the 7 integration points. This report presents these practices, which can be used as a guide toward more holistic planning and cohesive investment strategies. It also includes 3 case studies to provide practical examples of how utilities apply such integrated planning processes: two pole hardening programs and one microgrid planning effort. The report concludes by identifying opportunities for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy Systems Integration Facility Stewardship Summary: Fiscal Year 2024

A summary of NREL's good stewardship of the nationally unique Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) highlighting performance metrics, infrastructure upgrades, and examples of R&D impact. In fiscal year 2024, we developed advanced energy security and resilience capabilities as we built a new test bed for power electronics and completed a 1-megawatt platform for studying energy systems with grid-forming inverters. Researchers collaborated with utilities, manufacturers, and communities to solve their pressing questions, such as a control architecture that heralds a new direction for distributed energy management systems. With support from the U.S Department of Energy (DOE), the work in the ESIF laboratories continues to advance national goals for resilient and affordable energy.

annual report↗

DOE OSTI2025

Virtual Agents-Based Attack-Resilient Distributed Control for Islanded AC Microgrid

Due to its dependence on a communication network, distributed secondary control of microgrids is susceptible to denial-of-service (DoS) attacks in channel shutdown mode, which may negatively impact the network connectivity and thus deteriorate the coordination and power sharing among distributed generators (DGs). Honeypot is a common method for cyber deception by introducing fake targets. However, in the context of microgrid, the misleading information spread by honeypots will also impact the system performance. This paper proposes an attack-resilient distributed control for AC microgrids utilizing virtual agents (VAs) to counteract both DoS edge and node attacks. The VAs are designed to not impact the system’s steady state during normal operation but to share information among neighboring real agents and serve as dummy targets for DoS attacks. The control with VAs is implemented by a primal-dual gradient based distributed algorithm to efficiently obtain a practical solution for voltage/frequency regulation and power sharing. The simulation results on a 4-DG test system and a modified IEEE 34-bus system show that 1) VAs do not impact the normal functionality of the test system, and 2) deploying VAs can enhance the resilience of the microgrid control against DoS edge and node attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Distributed Wind Turbine Controls Series: Part 1-Flatirons Campus Model Overview – Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL)

Wind turbines are typically deployed to provide energy, reduce diesel-fuel consumption, reduce carbon emissions, and reduce costs for energy and fuel transportation. However, in addition to solely providing energy to the power system, wind turbines contain rotating masses and inverter-based controls that can enable various reliability and resilience services through advance controls. As part of the Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL), it is demonstrated that advanced wind turbine controls can be employed to support higher contributions of wind, and to demonstrate ways that wind can play a role in supporting grid stability in islanded or grid-connected configurations. This paper documents models of various subsystem comprising a portion of NREL's Flatirons campus that will be used in three subsequent reports to demonstrate capabilities of advanced wind turbine controls. The series of reports will detail advanced capabilities of distributed wind turbines to provide support to isolated grids, distribution grids, and microgrids. We developed models to simulate a wind turbine (600 kW), solar PV (430 kW), battery energy storage system (1 MW/1MWh), a diesel generator (2 MW) and various types of loads (critical, dynamic). The model of the subsystems in MATLAB/Simulink are validated with available data from real-world components on NREL's Flatirons Campus. These validated models can be configured for various studies including four MIRACL use cases: 1) isolated grids, 2) microgrids, and 3) behind-the-meter, and 4) front-of-the-meter wind turbine deployments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing the location and configuration of disaster resilience hubs under transportation and electric power network failures

Natural disasters often result in failures of transportation network components and blackouts that imperil the wellbeing of vulnerable populations. In response to these events, resilience hubs have been proposed as a pre-disaster planning strategy to improve access to critical services. This paper introduces an optimization-based approach to locate and configure electric power-generating resilience hubs considering the possibility of failures in transportation and electric power systems. The model's objective is to identify hub locations and configurations that maximize transportation accessibility to the hubs and maximize the satisfaction of basic energy needs through hub-generated electric power. Besides a budget constraint, the model accounts for limits on the levels of hub energy generation vis-à-vis community energy demands, and on the transportation network distance of communities to hubs. Three heuristics are presented for the proposed planning problem. The first heuristic is a genetic algorithm (GA) with problem-specific solution generation procedures. The other two heuristics implement greedy search techniques. Numerical experiments were conducted, using data from rural Puerto Rico, to illustrate the application of the proposed model and heuristics, and examine their performance. In the numerical experiments, the GA heuristic found better solutions than the greedy heuristics. Additionally, design solutions consisting of spatially dispersed hubs with low energy generation capacity were better than solutions with spatially concentrated high-capacity hubs. Lastly, across a wide range of hub demand scenarios, only a small number of candidate hub locations consistently ranked among the best locations for establishing a hub.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-performance windows improve thermal survivability of occupants during cold snaps

Exposure to low indoor air temperature is a major contributor to temperature-related mortality during extreme cold events, especially when power outages disrupt operation of space heating systems. This study explores the impact of high-performance windows on the thermal resilience of residential buildings during extreme cold weather and grid power outages, as well as their long-term benefits through energy efficiency and reduced risk of property damage. Building performance simulations were conducted for reference residential buildings in three construction vintages and two major U.S. cities located in cold climate zones, considering two types of extreme cold events: short and severe, and long and milder. Our research found that even houses compliant with current energy codes struggle to maintain safe indoor temperatures for more than a few hours during power outages, necessitating rapid evacuations. High-performance windows can extend the thermal survivability time by up to 3.8 days within a 7-day cold snap and significantly reduce risk of bursting frozen water pipes, depending on the building’s insulation and infiltration level, cold event severity, and occupant vulnerability. This extended thermal safety time is crucial in scenarios where reduced mobility complicates emergency responses in senior housing. In addition to boosting thermal resilience, upgrading older homes with high-performance windows can reduce heating energy consumption by over 18% and cooling energy by 15%. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate thermal resilience assessments into new designs or major retrofits, including the use of typical and extreme weather scenarios and advanced technologies like high-performance windows.

Krelling, Amanda F↗

DOE OSTI2025

Overcoming Resilience Challenges on the Outer Banks of North Carolina

In 2021, the Town of Nags Head, located in the Outer Banks region of North Carolina, was among the first cohort of coastal and island communities to participate in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP), which offers technical assistance and cash awards to competitively selected coastal, remote, and island communities seeking to transform their energy systems and increase their energy resilience. As a barrier island separated from mainland North Carolina, Nags Head experiences impacts from extreme weather events, including power outages, especially during hurricane season. To address challenges, the Nags Head ETIPP team sought to improve the town's disaster resilience by ensuring that critical facilities can remain powered during and after extreme events. With support from experts at Sandia National Laboratories, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the Coastal Studies Institute, the community team identified the following goals for its participation in ETIPP: 1. Identify and prioritize critical facilities that, when powered during disruptions, support the town's resilience. 2. Analyze the potential for on-site solar photovoltaic (PV) and storage systems at 2-4 prioritized critical facilities owned and/or operated by the town. 3. Analyze the potential for interconnecting solar PV and storage systems at a cluster of public and privately owned facilities into a resilient microgrid. 4. Explore finance options and utility interconnection requirements and compensation mechanisms. 5. Summarize outcomes and next steps for town leadership.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cybersecurity Resiliency of Marine Renewable Energy Systems Part 2: Cybersecurity Best Practices and Risk Management

Marine renewable energy (MRE) is an emerging source of power for marine applications, marine devices, and coastal communities. This energy source relies on industrial control systems and IT to support operations and maintenance activities, which create a pathway for an adversary to gain unauthorized access to systems and data and disrupt operations. Incorporating cybersecurity risk prevention measures and mitigation capabilities from inception, development, operation, to decommissioning of the MRE system and components is paramount to the protection of energy generation and the security of network architecture and infrastructure. To improve the resilience of MRE systems as a predictable, affordable, and reliable source of energy, cybersecurity guidance was developed to enable operators to assess cybersecurity risks and implement security measures commensurate with the risk. This publication is the second of a two-part series, with Part 1 addressing a framework to determine cybersecurity risk by assessing the vulnerability of an MRE system to potential cyber threats and the consequences a cyberattack would have on the end user. This Part 2 publication describes an approach to select appropriate cybersecurity best practices commensurate with the MRE system's cybersecurity risk. The guidance includes 86 cybersecurity best practices, which are associated with 36 cybersecurity domains and grouped into nine categories. The best practices follow the core functions of the National Institute of Science and Technology Cybersecurity Framework (e.g., identify, detect, protect, respond, and and recover) and insights from both maritime and energy industry guidance documents to identify security measures effective in protecting information and operational technology assets prevalent in MRE systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Informed Analysis for Enhanced Resilient Nuclear Power Plant with Initiatives including ATF, FLEX, and Advanced Battery Technology

This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2021 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, the advanced battery technology with extended capacity, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors? safety features and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. The ERP R&D efforts in FY 2021 are focused on three industry initiatives, including accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), and advanced battery technology with extended capacity.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilience in an Age of Increasing Electrification

The purpose of this paper is to outline considerations of global electrification trends that include the resultant system-wide and nation-wide impacts. How we incorporate resilience into the electrification plans that transition a nation from conventional energy sources to secure clean energy sources can impact the success of those transitions. Electrification of energy systems has the potential to impact power system planning, emissions, and security; however, little research has been done on comprehensive solutions for incorporating resilience into the electrification process. Research has been conducted on aspects of the energy system and electrification, but not holistically across disciplines and related to the interdependencies of different components of the grid system. This gap in research provides an opportunity for more analysis and a collection of best practices to incorporate resilience into electrification plans. Although clean energy is the goal of an increasing number of nations worldwide, there are many considerations in designing clean energy transitions and increased electrification. Resilience must be factored into clean energy transitions from planning, market design, and policies to modernized grid structures and new, location-specific dispersed energy and energy storage technologies.

clean energy↗

DOE OSTI2022

AI-Based Protective Relays for Electric Grid Resiliency

The protection systems (circuit breakers, relays, reclosers, and fuses) of the electric grid are the primary component responding to resilience events, ranging from common storms to extreme events. The protective equipment must detect and operate very quickly, generally <0.25 seconds, to remove faults in the system before the system goes unstable or additional equipment is damaged. The burden on protection systems is increasing as the complexity of the grid increases; renewable energy resources, particularly inverter-based resources (IBR) and increasing electrification all contribute to a more complex grid landscape for protection devices. In addition, there are increasing threats from natural disasters, aging infrastructure, and manmade attacks that can cause faults and disturbances in the electric grid. The challenge for the application of AI into power system protection is that events are rare and unpredictable. In order to improve the resiliency of the electric grid, AI has to be able to learn from very little data. During an extreme disaster, it may not be important that the perfect, most optimal action is taken, but AI must be guaranteed to always respond by moving the grid toward a more stable state during unseen events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Steady-State Analysis of Microgrid Distributed Control Under Denial of Service Attacks

Distributed control is an effective method to coordinate multiple components in a microgrid. It usually has mandatory requirements for communication graph topology; changing the topology unexpectedly could disrupt the operation of a distributed controller. A denial of service (DoS) attack blocks communication channels to cause variations in communication graph. Unforeseen topology changes render a controller to receive incomplete system information. Control decisions made based on incorrect information can lead to significantly reduced grid supporting capability. As a result, the vital power balance between generation and load may be challenged. Determining power balance requires steady-state power flow analysis; however, the cyber-induced steady-state analysis is not well studied in the literature. Here, in this article, we show that a cyber–physical microgrid with unknown DoS attacks has augmented uncertain power flow equations, whose special structure creates new computational issue to determining power balance. To deal with the issue, we develop a novel cyber-induced microgrid model: the cyber–physical system is transformed into a pure physical model, where the disruption effects of DoS in the cyber layer are shown to be equivalent to the variations of the physical model parameters. With the transformed system, we develop a sufficient condition to ascertain the system power balance under unknown DoS attacks. In addition, practical insights for resilient distributed control design are shown as well.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Engineering in Cyber Resilience with Cyber-Informed Engineering

Engineers have super powers to provide cybersecurity resilience with deterministic engineering solutions and to protect systems from the most catastrophic consequences that a cyber saboteur could cause. Come to this session to learn how to use engineering risk management skills to harden your engineered systems from cyberattacks. Objective 1 Identify what system functions could be digitally induced to cause undesired high-impact consequences. Objective 2 Analyze how loss or instability of digital controls in a subsystem could lead to high-impact consequences. Objective 3 Analyze how loss or instability in the digital connectivity between systems could lead to high-impact consequences. Objective 4 Identify engineering controls which could build resilience by eliminating digital loss or instability pathways or reduce the impact of digital loss or instability. This presentation will introduce Cyber-Informed Engineering, described below, and walk participants through specific engineering use cases to show how engineers can consider the potential for cyber sabotage in their existing system designs and enact deterministic engineering-based controls which eliminate pathways for attack or mitigate specific consequences. A wide variety of application use cases will be considered so that audience members can align the material with familiar engineering applications. CIE is an engineering approach that integrates cyber resilience into the conception, design, build, and operation of any physical system that has digital connectivity, sensors, monitoring, or control. CIE offers the opportunity to use engineering to eliminate or mitigate avenues for cyber attack—starting from the earliest stage of design and continuing throughout the system’s lifecycle. Today, engineers and industrial control system (ICS) technicians build engineered systems with specific goals for safety, reliability, and functionality. While systems engineering includes considerable safety and failure mode analysis, cybersecurity risks are often not specifically addressed—particularly the risks of intentional cyber compromise, exploitation, and misuse. Cyber-Informed Engineering pairs well with traditional cyber defenses and offers an extra designed-in protection to eliminate the most catastrophic consequences which can be realized by an adversary should traditional cyber defenses fail.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Virgin Islands: Facing Challenges Head-On

The U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) - located in the Caribbean just east of Puerto Rico between the Caribbean Sea and the north Atlantic Ocean - is composed of three main islands: St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas. USVI is confronted with high electricity costs and poor power system reliability, compounded by natural threats like hurricanes, failing infrastructure, and a strained local workforce. Two hurricanes caused widespread damage to power infrastructure in 2017. To combat these challenges, USVI is capitalizing on federal funding opportunities to build a significantly more robust power and water system, paving the way for a brighter and more resilient future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Generator Failures under Extreme Temperature Scenarios in Power Systems

This report summarizes work done under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) Program. The specific task of interest described in this report is focused on sensitivity analysis of scenarios involving failures of both wind turbines and thermal generators under extreme cold-weather temperature conditions as would be observed in a Polar Vortex event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗