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At least 469 records · Page 26

Consequence and Resilience Modeling for Chemical Supply Chains

The U.S. chemical sector produces more than 70,000 chemicals that are essential material inputs to critical infrastructure systems, such as the energy, public health, and food and agriculture sectors. Disruptions to the chemical sector can potentially cascade to other dependent sectors, resulting in serious national consequences. To address this concern, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) tasked Sandia National Laboratories to develop a predictive consequence modeling and simulation capability for global chemical supply chains. This paper describes that capability , which includes a dynamic supply chain simulation platform called N_ABLE(tm). The paper also presents results from a case study that simulates the consequences of a Gulf Coast hurricane on selected segments of the U.S. chemical sector. The case study identified consequences that include impacted chemical facilities, cascading impacts to other parts of the chemical sector. and estimates of the lengths of chemical shortages and recovery . Overall. these simulation results can DHS prepare for and respond to actual disruptions.

Stamber, Kevin L.↗

The Energy Transition: Advanced Nuclear Needed but Address Climate Vulnerabilities Now

The term “Energy Transition” is an attempt to capture an elaborate set of activities related to the modernization and decarbonization of energy grids. Performed concurrently and often in an ad hoc manner across local, state, regional and national boundaries, it is bringing chaos to what should arguably be one of the most conservatively managed of all critical infrastructure sectors. What’s more, with climate change producing an increasing tempo of extreme events, confidence in the intended resilient and redundant structure of the electric grids is likely to ebb. Even without these climate induced stressors, the nation’s electric grid was built for an earlier century. In addition to a drive towards greater efficiency via digitization and a continuing price decline in distributed energy resources (DERs), one could argue that climate change concerns are the primary driver of the energy transition. Non-CO2 emitting generation sources like wind and solar have become an important part of the overall generation fleet, albeit ones that cannot be counted upon to provide dispatchable power. Current projections indicate deployment of even larger percentages of DERs in coming years. Until far better storage capabilities arrive, the variability of wind and solar, inconsistent performance of traditional thermal generation plants, and energy delivery failures associated with natural gas pipelines will reinforce mounting reliability concerns. This pertains to both electric transmission and distribution. The recent shuttering of nuclear power plants in Germany, Japan, the US and elsewhere are also putting more downward pressure on dispatchable generation. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has roiled energy markets worldwide and forced some countries to return to coal as a primary fuel. In view circumstances such as these, it is essential that significant changes be made to policies and planning criteria, and to the standards and code on which they are based. Given the accelerating pace of extreme weather events, this needs to occur as soon as possible.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Request for Proposal: MSI Workforce Program Funding Opportunity

Los Alamos National Laboratory is a multidisciplinary research institution engaged in strategic science on behalf of national security. The Laboratory strives to enhance national security and make the world safer through research and advances in innovative science and technology. The Lab inspires the talent of its workforce and the region to solve problems related to defense, energy, environment, infrastructure, health, and global security concerns. LANL currently employs 11,700 and anticipates hiring 1000 plus people this year. The LANL mission is critical to meeting military requirements to ensure the U.S. nuclear deterrent is modern, responsive, and resilient. LANL is designated by NNSA as the nation’s Plutonium Center of Excellence. LANL has an experienced and skilled workforce, high-hazard nuclear facilities and associated infrastructure, and unique plutonium processing, fabrication, and experimental capabilities.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Accelerating Next-Generation Cybersecurity R&D Using AI Workflows: BADGER Project Development

The Broadband Automation for Distributed Grid Efficiency and Resilience (BADGER) project aligns with national strategic priorities for integrating emerging wireless technologies and advancing AI-driven security. As critical infrastructure modernizes toward increasingly software-defined and interconnected systems, the ability to leverage 5G/NextG networks and AI-enabled control becomes essential. This report outlines work at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) to develop a NextG-native security architecture powered by AI-RAN concepts and evaluate workflows that enable efficient and reliable architectures. Together, these efforts position the laboratory to accelerate innovation while directly supporting national security and resilience objectives.

5G/6G↗

Resilient information and inference networks under mixed-trust sensing

With ubiquitous digitization, sensing, and computational intelligence deployed in increasingly more and broader domains, including critical infrastructure, potentially misleading and destabilizing effects of multimodal anomalies and adversarial behavior are growing in importance. Here, we develop randomized and reinforcement learning-based strategies for strategically recruiting and utilizing deployed (and, thus, vulnerable and potentially faulty and/or compromised) nodes from information and inference networks, while defending against adversaries that attempt to misguide assessments of inferred variables. Recognizing that, besides communication and other costs, sampling from any observable node can either provide true data or dangerously expose our inference to misinformation (without being easily distinguishable what actually happens), the proposed strategies proceed by progressively recruiting nodes and cautiously scaling their information contribution based on assumed, or, in our reinforcement learning approach, intelligently weighed trustworthiness, with the learning approach also considering network-wide, threat-inclusive risk/value tradeoffs. While avoiding the hardware, communication, analytical and computational burden of explicit redundancy, the proposed defensive schemes enable on-the-fly assessments of underlying processes, and system-wide situational awareness with demonstrable resilience against adversarial activities.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Resilient Hierarchical Networked Control Systems: Secure Controls for Critical Locations and at Edge

Integration of information and communication technology (ICT) offers new opportunities in improving the management and operation of critical infrastructures such as power systems as it allows connection of different sensors and control components via a communication network, leading to the so-called networked control systems (NCS). However, the use of open and pervasive ICT such as the Internet or wireless communication technologies comes at a price of making NCS vulnerable to cyber intrusions/attacks which may cause physical damage. Here, this chapter presents control algorithms to ensure resilient and safe operation of NCS under unknown cyberattacks. Specifically, a variant of dynamic watermarking strategies is presented by embedding encoding/decoding components of chaotic signals into the NCS for secure control for critical locations where the measurement/control signals are transmitted to/from the control center via a communication network. In addition, resilient cooperative control algorithms are discussed to ensure safe operation at edge of the NCS which consists of a large number of distributed controllable devices. Several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the proposed control strategies.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Situational Awareness of Grid Anomalies (SAGA) for Visual Analytics—Near-Real-Time Cyber-Physical Resiliency Through Machine Learning

The Situational Awareness of Grid Anomalies (SAGA) project built upon foundational power system tools developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) integrated with an ever-increasing set of Gridmetrics data extracted from the cable television (CATV) broadband network infrastructure while assimilating other time-series geospatial data and information, such as weather and cyber-physical phenomena, to demonstrate a disruptive technology for power system data analytics relying on existing infrastructure. Three research thrusts supported (1) visual analytics, (2) cyber-physical power system simulation, and (3) anomaly detection. SAGA created technology that leverages, couples, and fortifies two vastly different realms - power and broadband - to increase the resiliency of the power grid in the face of increasing cyberattacks and operational challenges related to integrating DERs. The exploration of potential synergies of broadband-enabled grids resulted in identifying a mutually beneficial symbiosis that can increase the resiliency of both power and broadband services. Broadband networks perform better with reliable power and are good at providing real-time measurements that identify where the grid is under attack, is failing, or is weak. Likewise, sensor-starved distribution grids perform better and can be more reliable when their operation is buttressed with observations of broadband-detected anomalies. Future research can explore broadband's contribution to continuing to improve grid resiliency, reliability, and cost-effective operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $\$$/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Hydrogen applications in airport operations: a review using the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey as an illustrative airport system

Airports combine aircraft propulsion, ground operations, stationary power systems, and fuel logistics in ways that make emissions reduction technically and operationally complex. Existing studies often assess hydrogen applications in these areas separately, limiting understanding of the shared infrastructure, safety, and operational constraints that shape airport deployment. This review evaluates hydrogen across three airport-relevant operational domains: aviation propulsion, ground support equipment and vehicles, and stationary power systems. Within aviation propulsion, the review examines sustainable aviation fuel production and hydrogen-powered aircraft as two distinct hydrogen-relevant pathways. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey is used as an illustrative airport system to relate the literature to a real operating context. Drawing on peer-reviewed studies, technical reports, demonstration projects, and public operational information, the review also includes screening-level calculations of hydrogen demand and potential CO 2 e reductions for selected applications. The findings show that hydrogen's role is highly application-specific. Near-term opportunities are strongest where hydrogen serves as a low-carbon process input, supports selected high-utilization ground equipment, or contributes to resilient stationary power-system configurations. Hydrogen-powered aircraft remain a longer-term option because storage, fueling infrastructure, certification, cost, and NO x management continue to constrain deployment. Across all domains, infrastructure readiness, fuel logistics, safety requirements, and leakage management emerge as recurring determinants of viability. Future research should focus on cross-domain infrastructure planning, comparative assessment of hydrogen against alternative pathways, improved treatment of leakage and non-CO 2 effects, and clearer safety and regulatory frameworks for airport deployment.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Hydrogen embrittlement and mechanical response of 304L steel with ZrC additions

While stainless steels are widely used for hydrogen storage infrastructure, they can still be vulnerable to hydrogen embrittlement justifying the need to further improve their hydrogen resiliency. Here, we investigate the potential for transition metal carbide additions to improve the hydrogen compatibility of austenitic stainless steels. ZrC nanoparticles were dispersed in contents of 0.01–10 wt% in 304 L stainless steel powder, mixed via high energy ball milling, and subsequently consolidated using direct current sintering. To assess hydrogen compatibility, the tensile properties of similarly processed 304 L without ZrC nanoparticles were compared to 304 L with the ZrC additions; both materials were evaluated prior to and after hydrogen exposure (non-charged and H-precharged, respectively). Depending upon the ZrC phase fraction, the yield strengths varied from ∼325 to 560 MPa in the non-charged condition and from ∼375 to 550 MPa in the H-precharged condition. Strain at failure varied from ∼5 to 90 % and from ∼5 to 35 % in the non-charged and hydrogen-precharged conditions, respectively. Results from stress-strain profiles demonstrate limited efficacy of ZrC as a method to mitigate hydrogen embrittlement entirely but does demonstrate the potency of ZrC inclusions as strengthening addition to 304 L alloys without a loss of ductility.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Generative adversarial networks for ensemble projections of future urban morphology

As city planners design and adapt cities for future resilience and intelligence, interactions among neighborhood morphological development with respect to changes in population and resultant built infrastructure's impact on the natural environment must be considered. For deep understanding of these interactions, explicit representation of future neighborhoods is necessary for future city modeling. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been shown to produce spatially accurate urban forms at scales representing entire cities to those at neighborhood and single building scale. Here we demonstrate a GAN method for generating an ensemble of possible new neighborhoods given land use characteristics and designated neighborhood type.

Dumas, Melissa↗

Advanced Technology and a Resilient Electric Grid

Making the electric grid cleaner and more resilient will require investing in a variety of new and emerging technologies. Advanced technologies including hydrogen, small modular nuclear reactors, and energy storage will all have a role to play in modernizing the electric grid. A diverse energy supply helps to keep the lights on and protects critical infrastructure, however it will also be important to assess the potential vulnerabilities and risks that come with unfamiliar and new technologies. This webinar will feature experts on resilience planning around advanced technologies from multiple sectors and share resources for states as they seek to modernize and decarbonize their electric grid.

advanced technology↗

Seasonal Cost-Benefit Analysis of Automated Distribution Feeder Upgrades with Advanced Mitigation Technologies

The increasing deployment of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) to meet clean energy goals can trigger adverse grid operation issues, such as voltage excursions and the violation of thermal loading constraints of the power delivery elements (e.g., lines and transformers) on the evolving electricity infrastructure. Such integration issues would require distribution upgrades with associated costs to mitigate them and to maintain reliable and resilient grid operating conditions. Traditional distribution network upgrade approaches use a specific single snapshot analysis that is overly conservative. This study considers a multi-time point analysis to capture both moderate (probable bounds) and extreme grid operating conditions using time points such as minimum load with minimum photovoltaics (PV), maximum load with maximum PV, maximum load with minimum PV, and minimum load with maximum PV. Further, this study investigates seasonal variation impacts and associated distribution upgrade costs for a spring season case (March, representing a low load and high PV scenario) and a summer case (July, representing a high load and high PV scenario). Such seasonal analysis will allow system operators to characterize upgrade requirements and associated costs across various periods. Because the spatial distribution of DPV can impact upgrade and associated costs, this study investigates three common DPV deployment scenarios - randomly deployed, close to the substation, and far from the substation - at different penetration levels. Apart from spatial distribution impacts, this project evaluates the techno-economic impacts of the nodal photovoltaic penetration factor (NPPF) for generating the various DPV deployment scenarios at increasing penetration levels. This project investigates the impact of varying nodal PV-to-load ratios using conservative and extreme NPPF values of 3 and 10, respectively. This study investigates the deployment of traditional infrastructure upgrade strategies, such as installing new voltage regulating equipment, transformers and lines replacements, and the activation of advanced inverter functionality (e.g., autonomous volt/VAR) in expanding PV hosting capacity. Existing DPV systems are assumed to operate with the legacy unity power factor, and we considered the possibility of retrofitting such systems with the activation of volt/VAR control as integration standards and regulations continue to evolve to allow such functions. The cost-benefit analysis metrics used in study include distribution upgrade costs, average cost per watt of the upgrade cost, average marginal cost per watt of the upgrade cost, and power losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Packages of Distributed Energy Technologies Demonstrating Demand Flexibility at Community Scale

The combination of increased electric load growth across all sectors, deferred electrical infrastructure investment, and other factors resulting in variable electric power supply, has created technical challenges to maintaining a resilient and reliable grid. Many federal, regional, and local efforts are in play to modernize the electric grid, including advancing building technologies and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are utilizing smarter controls to become responsive to both occupant and grid needs. This report reviews ten pilot projects demonstrating how groups of buildings combined with behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs such as electric vehicle (EV) charging, battery storage, flexible HVAC and domestic hot water systems, and photovoltaic systems can reliably and cost effectively provide grid services. Each of the ten pilot projects aim to deliver both energy efficiency and demand flexibility (DF) while supporting load growth. The ten demonstration teams are piloting flexible DER packages across diverse communities of residential and commercial buildings to address a variety of regional grid needs. The outcomes of these pilot projects will be used to inform future scaling through utility program development. This paper characterizes the ten teams, showcasing the decision-making process used by each group to develop their packages (Section 2), the grid services they plan to deliver (Section 3), the types of DER packages selected for deployment within building sectors (Section 4) and trends between building sector, DER types, and grid services In order to achieve community scale benefits, the pilot projects must utilize aggregated control mechanisms for coordinating buildings and DERs together. Several types of coordinated control architectures have evolved amongst the teams, influenced by use type, existing market conditions, and integration type. Three coordinated controls architectures have been characterized, highlighting their use cases, benefits, challenges, and tradeoffs in their design. These insights can aid utilities, control vendors, and developers in scaling community-level energy systems (Paul, 2024). Ultimately, the technology packages selected by the ten teams will be coordinated to provide power system services, also known as grid services. Insights from these demonstrations will be useful for grid operators, regulators, aggregators and other stakeholders as they look to deploy demand flexible resources as grid services in the future. The grid services that each team is targeting for demonstration are described in Section 3 and Section 4. Methods for evaluating the grid services have been described in the paper Metrics for Evaluating Grid Service Provision from Communities of Grid-interactive and Efficient Buildings and other DER (MacDonald, 2023). To identify technology packages for demonstration, Section 2 shows that project teams used a range of analysis approaches, including building energy modeling, AMI data analysis, cost-benefit frameworks, and utility pilot data. Some teams emphasized technical modeling to quantify grid impacts and demand reduction potential, while others prioritized economic evaluations, stakeholder input, or exploratory pilots to inform deployment decisions. This diversity reflects the need to tailor selection methods to project goals, available data, and organizational context. Section 5 discusses trends between the DER technologies deployed and the grid service provisions from each team. Residential buildings (multifamily and single family) lean towards technologies that enhance energy efficiency (e.g. weatherization upgrades, smart thermostats) and onsite power generation integration (e.g. solar PV). Commercial building demonstrations prioritize technologies that ensure operational reliability (e.g. battery storage) and centralized energy management systems and optimization solutions. Teams that are deploying controllable storage-based technologies are more likely to provide grid services that require a near real-time response. Teams incorporating load shifting technologies like smart thermostats with HEMs are likely to include energy markets participation and customer bill management offerings. Campus demonstrations are adopting diverse sets of DERs to emphasize renewable generation, paired with centralized control. This section also describes technologies that were considered during project planning but ultimately excluded from final deployment. These demonstrations reveal that effective DER package design should be tailored to building type, customer segment, and construction vintage. Multifamily buildings benefit from centralized HVAC upgrades and supervisory controls, while single-family homes are well-suited for individualized technologies like solar, storage, and smart home energy monitors. Commercial and campus settings prioritize EMIS integration and load optimization. New construction enables cost-effective integration of DER-ready infrastructure, whereas retrofits require deployments aligned with owner and tenant value streams. For utility program planners, early coordination with developers and building owners, paired with segmented and modular program offerings, can improve adoption, scalability, and grid impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Challenges resulting from urban density and climate change for the EU energy transition

Dense urban morphologies further amplify extreme climate events due to the urban heat island phenomenon, rendering cities more vulnerable to extreme climate events. Here we develop a modelling framework using multi-scale climate and energy system models to assess the compound impact of future climate variations and urban densification on renewable energy integration for 18 European cities. We observe a marked change in wind speed and temperature due to the aforementioned compound impact, resulting in a notable increase in both peak and annual energy demand. Therefore, an additional cost of 20–60% will be needed during the energy transition (without technology innovation in building) to guarantee climate resilience. Failure to consider extreme climate events will lower power supply reliability by up to 30%. Here, energy infrastructure in dense urban areas of southern Europe is more vulnerable to the compound impact, necessitating flexibility improvements at the design phase when improving renewable penetration levels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Templates for Risk Informed Assurance with Curvature Embeddings (TRACE)

We investigate recovery of geometric structure from networks embedded in manifolds with spatially varying curvature, extending the constant-curvature framework of Lubold et al. (2023). Our work supports cascade risk assessment in critical infrastructure through the Templates for Risk-informed Assurance with Curvature Embeddings (TRACE) framework. Simulations on a bi-modal Gaussian surface show that constant-curvature methods yield weighted averages shaped by clique patterns, while hierarchical clustering identifies distinct regimes. Localized estimation, however, reveals boundary contamination in transitional regions. To address heterogeneity, we develop distance metrics for graphs with edge and node features, proving their metric validity, and validate them via deterministic graph generation from canonical tilings. We further propose a diffusion-based anomaly detection approach that treats networks as glued manifolds, using curvature discontinuities to detect structural anomalies. Employing the carré-du-champ operator and scalar curvature, we achieve robust anomaly discrimination, demonstrated on the Singapore Water Treatment (SWaT) dataset with joint network-traffic and sensor features. Integration with TRACE reveals how curvature shapes cascade dynamics: positive curvature impedes, while negative curvature accelerates propagation. This geometric perspective provides interpretable risk metrics and visualization tools for critical infrastructure managers. While full validation remains ongoing, our contributions establish a rigorous foundation for geometric analysis of network resilience and cascade vulnerability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

3D Printing of Cement-Based Materials Using Seawater for Simulated Marine Environments

Global demand for adaptable and rapidly deployable construction solutions in offshore, coastal, and fluvial environments continues to rise, driven by pressing needs to develop energy platforms, improve coastal resilience, and support emergency response in the face of natural disasters. Increased investment in human-made coastal infrastructure, such as piers, support structures for power lines, offshore wind farms, and seawall protection systems, further underscores this trend. This study investigates the development of printable concrete mixtures for underwater environments using seawater as a replacement for freshwater, using a 3D printing syringe-based extrusion system. The effect of seawater addition and the printing medium (in air vs. underwater) was assessed via rheological and mechanical performance characterization. The results indicate rheological properties are favorable for seawater adoption by producing mixtures with higher yield stress and viscosity with the same levels of admixtures used for freshwater. Seawater-based mixtures demonstrated superior dimensional stability compared to freshwater counterparts, maintaining cross-sectional geometry, while compressive strength results showed no statistical differences between in-air and underwater samples. However, flexural strength was significantly influenced by geometry and printing medium. These findings establish critical rheological parameters for printable underwater mixtures and highlight the need for optimized curing strategies and layer bonding techniques to improve interfacial strength in underwater 3D printing applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Strategic Pathways for Indigenous Resilient and Innovative Transportation

This presentation details the results of the project, titled Strategic Pathways for Indigenous Resilient and Innovative Transportation. The project culminated in a guidebook for Tribes interested in pursuing public EV charging infrastructure. The guidebook is designed to serve Tribal planners, Tribal departments of transportation, environmental offices, Tribal enterprises, Tribal utility authorities, Tribal leadership, and any other interested parties. The conference presentation will provide details on the engagement conducted during the project to inform the project publications. The presentation will also discuss Tribal sovereignty-related considerations for EV charging infrastructure topics including O&M and working with the electric utility.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗