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NASA NTRS1975

An investigation of the solar zenith angle variation of D-region ionization

Model calculations are carried out with a view to interpreting the solar zenith angle variation of D-region ionization. A model is developed for the neutral chemistry including the transport terms relating to molecular and eddy diffusion. The diurnal behavior is described of the minor neutral constituents formed in an oxygen-hydrogen-nitrogen atmosphere, in the height interval between 30 and 120 km. Computations carried out for two cases of the eddy diffusion coefficients models indicate that the constituents which are important for the D-region positive-ion chemistry do not show a significant variation with zenith angle for values up to 75 deg over the D-region heights. In the ion chemistry model, ion-pair production rates are calculated for solar X-rays between 1 A and 100 A, EUV radiations from 100 A up to the Lyman-alpha line, precipitating electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. The solar zenith angle variation of the positive-ion composition, negative-ion composition, and the electron densities are described up to 75 deg zenith angle, in the height interval between 60 and 100 km.

Ratnasiri, P. A. J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface, particularly within weakly-sheared environments such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in land surface and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather over eastern Africa. KMS currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, making use of the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the KMS-WRF runs on a regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMS for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities through new datasets and tools. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR is providing enhanced, experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMS as part of this collaboration. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMS-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of data interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model soil moisture and temperature fields. Additionally, realtime green vegetation fraction (GVF) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi- NPP) satellite will be incorporated into the KMS-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMS using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) package in conjunction with a dynamic scripting package developed by SPoRT (Zavodsky et al. 2014), to help quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. Furthermore, the transition of these MET tools will enable KMS to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This paper presents preliminary efforts to improve land surface model initialization over eastern Africa in support of operations at KMS. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows: The collaborating organizations involved in the project are described in Section 2; background information on LIS and the configuration for eastern Africa is presented in Section 3; the WRF configuration used in this modeling experiment is described in Section 4; sample experimental WRF output with and without LIS initialization data are given in Section 5; a summary is given in Section 6 followed by acknowledgements and references.

Case, Johnathan L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1985

Utilization of satellite data and regional scale numerical models in short range weather forecasting

Overwhelming evidence was developed in a number of studies of satellite data impact on numerical weather prediction that it is unrealistic to expect satellite temperature soundings to improve detailed regional numerical weather prediction. It is likely that satellite data over the United States would substantially impact mesoscale dynamical predictions if the effort were made to develop a composite moisture analysis system. The horizontal variability of moisture, most clearly depicited in images from satellite water vapor channels, would not be determined from conventional rawinsondes even if that network were increased by a doubling of both the number of sites and the time frequency.

Kreitzberg, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1986

On the magnetic structure of the quiet transition region

Existing models of the quiet chromosphere-corona transition region predict a distribution of emission measure over temperature that agrees with observation for a T greater than about 100,000 K. These 'network' models assume that all magnetic field lines that emerge from the photosphere extend into and are in thermal contact with the corona. It is shown that the observed fine-scale structure of the photospheric magnetic network instead suggests a two-component picture in which magnetic funnels that open into the corona emerge from only a fraction of the network. The gas that makes up the hotter transition region is mostly contained within these funnels, as in standard models, but, because the funnels are more constricted in our picture, the heat flowing into the cooler transition region from the corona is reduced by up to an order of magnitude. The remainder of the network is occupied by a population of low-lying loops with lengths less than about 10,000 km. It is proposed that the cooler transition region is mainly located within such loops, which are magnetically insulated from the corona and must, therefore, be heated internally. The fine-scale structure of ultraviolet spectroheliograms is consistent with this proposal, and theoretical models of internally heated loops can explain the behavior of the emission measure below a T of aobut 100,000 K.

Rabin, D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Modeling fluvial erosion on regional to continental scales

The fluvial system is a major concern in modeling landform evolution in response to tectonic deformation. Three stream bed types (bedrock, coarse-bed alluvial, and fine-bed alluvial) differ in factors controlling their occurrence and evolution and in appropriate modeling approaches. Spatial and temporal transitions among bed types occur in response to changes in sediment characteristics and tectonic deformation. Erosion in bedrock channels depends upon the ability to scour or pluck bed material; this detachment capacity is often a power function of drainage area and gradient. Exposure of bedrock in channel beds, due to rapid downcutting or resistant rock, slows the response of headwater catchments to downstream baselevel changes. Sediment routing through alluvial channels must account for supply from slope erosion, transport rates, abrasion, and sorting. In regional landform modeling, implicit rate laws must be developed for sediment production from erosion of sub-grid-scale slopes and small channels.

Howard, Alan D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Models of transition region and coronal plasma in solar loop structures

The theory of coronal loops was developed and the simple version of the theory and observations are compared. It is shown that the gross properties of the confined corona can be understood by considering simple hydrostatic equilibrium models. By observing the corona it is apparent that hydrostatic models are seriously inadequate. It is suggested that observations of intensity fluctuations, of persistent up and down flows, of relatively cool matter residing at coronal heights, of apparent spatial co-mingling of hot plasmas at quite different temperatures, need a more sophisticated modeling.

Raymond, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A study for systematic errors of the GLA forecast model in tropical regions

From the sensitivity studies performed with the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system, it was revealed that the forecast errors in the tropics affect the ability to forecast midlatitude weather in some cases. Apparently, the forecast errors occurring in the tropics can propagate to midlatitudes. Therefore, the systematic error analysis of the GLA forecast system becomes a necessary step in improving the model's forecast performance. The major effort of this study is to examine the possible impact of the hydrological-cycle forecast error on dynamical fields in the GLA forecast system.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗

NASA NTRS1992

Status of solar wind modeling from the transition region outwards

In recent years, solar wind modeling has to some extent undergone a shift of emphasis, from attempts to produce high-speed streams far from the sun, to investigations of what conditions must exist in the solar corona and transition region in order to produce the observed conditions in both the solar wind and low corona. Thus there has been an increased awareness that the solar wind should really be treated as part of the solar atmosphere, and that the problems associated with heating and accelerating the solar wind should be treated in concert with the coronal (and perhaps chromospheric) heating problems. We will discuss several models which take this point of view but we will place particular emphasis on some outstanding problems, viz. the mass flux problem, some puzzling recent IPS data, our persistent difficulties with electron heat conduction, and observational uncertainties about the coronal and transition region boundary conditions which should be put into the models. We will conclude by suggesting some possible alternatives for future models.

Hollweg, J. V.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Allophane on Mars: Evidence from IR Spectroscopy and TES Spectral Models

Allophane is an alteration product of volcanic glass and a clay mineral precursor that is commonly found in basaltic soils on Earth. It is a poorly-crystalline or amorphous, hydrous aluminosilicate with Si/Al ratios ranging from approx.0.5-1 [Wada, 1989]. Analyses of thermal infrared (TIR) spectra of the Martian surface from TES show high-silica phases at mid-to-high latitudes that have been proposed to be primary volcanic glass [Bandfield et al., 2000; Bandfield, 2002; Rogers and Christensen, 2007] or poorly-crystalline secondary silicates such as allophane or aluminous amorphous silica [Kraft et al., 2003; Michalski et al., 2006; Rogers and Christensen, 2007; Kraft, 2009]. Phase modeling of chemical data from the APXS on the Mars Exploration Rover Spirit suggest the presence of allophane in chemically weathered rocks [Ming et al., 2006]. The presence of allophane on Mars has not been previously tested with IR spectroscopy because allophane spectra have not been available. We synthesized allophanes and allophanic gels with a range of Si/Al ratios to measure TIR emission and VNIR reflectance spectra and to test for the presence of allophane in Martian soils. VNIR reflectance spectra of the synthetic allophane samples have broad absorptions near 1.4 m from OH stretching overtones and 1.9 m from a combination of stretching and bending vibrations in H2O. Samples have a broad absorption centered near 2.25 microns, from AlAlOH combination bending and stretching vibrations, that shifts position with Si/Al ratio. Amorphous silica (opaline silica or primary volcanic glass) has been identified in CRISM spectra of southern highland terrains based on the presence of 1.4, 1.9, and broad 2.25 m absorptions [Mustard et al., 2008]; however, these absorptions are also consistent with the presence of allophane. TIR emission spectra of the synthetic allophanes show two spectrally distinct types: Si-rich and Al-rich. Si-rich allophanes have two broad absorptions centered near 1080 and 430 cm-1 from Si(Al)-O stretching and Si(Al)-O bending vibrations, respectively, and Al-rich allophanes have three broad absorptions centered near 950, 540, and 430 cm-1. We used a spectral library commonly used to deconvolve TES spectra and four allophane spectra to model nine spectrally distinct regions on Mars [from Rogers et al., 2007]. Regions previously modeled with high-silica phases contain significant amounts of allophane (>10 vol.%) in our models. Our models of northern Acidalia, the type locality for surface type 2 materials, contain 40 vol.% Si-rich allophane. The presence of allophane in multiple surface regions of Mars indicates a more widespread occurrence of low-temperature aqueous alteration at moderate pH than has been previously recognized. The regional variations in modeled abundances and the types of allophane (Si- vs. Al-rich) suggest regional differences in Mars weathering processes.

Ming, Douglas W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas

The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of evidence to assess regional climate projections in the latest contribution of the Working Group I (WGI) to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), particularly in the regional chapters and the Atlas. Here, we present the work done in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to assemble a consistent worldwide CORDEX grand ensemble, aligned with the deadlines and activities of IPCC AR6. This work addressed the uneven and heterogeneous availability of CORDEX ESGF data by supporting publication in CORDEX domains with few archived simulations and performing quality control. It also addressed the lack of comprehensive documentation by compiling information from all contributing regional models, allowing for an informed use of data. In addition to presenting the worldwide CORDEX dataset, we assess here its consistency for precipitation and temperature by comparing climate change signals in regions with overlapping CORDEX domains, obtaining overall coincident regional climate change signals. The C3S CORDEX dataset has been used for the assessment of regional climate change in the IPCC AR6 (and for the interactive Atlas) and is available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

A non-spherically symmetric model for absorption regions near quasars

An approximate analytic solution of the radiative-transfer equation is used to estimate upper limits on the fraction of sky covered (Omega/4pi) by absorption regions near broad absorption-line quasars. The resonance scattering of line radiation tends to 'fill in' absorption troughs, and regions with large Omega/4pi produce troughs that are severely 'filled in'. PHL 5200 and several other broad absorption line quasars have absorption troughs that are flat-bottomed and deep. It is noted that these quasars probably have small Omega/4pi. Simple solutions are obtained for the case of large optical depth and a point central source using a two-stream model for the radiation field. It is shown that the scattered radiation can produce flat-bottomed absorption troughs if the logarithmic velocity derivative in the outflow is constant. For a large class of models, Omega/4pi is approximately less than the residual intensity (the fraction left after absorption) in a deep flat-bottomed absorption trough.

Junkkarinen, V. T.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: Version 2019

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model is a capacity expansion and dispatch model that is primarily used for the contiguous U.S. electric power sector. The model relies on system-wide least cost optimization to estimate the type and location of future generation and transmission capacity. This document describes details of how the model is formulated, how it functions, and many of the key inputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation (Version 2020)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modelling climate analogue regions for a central European city

In this study, we describe a methodology to derive climate analogue cities for spatially highly resolved future climate scenarios. For the computation, a reduced and in hindsight bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX EUR-11 dataset is used based on two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A total of 389 European cities are processed by the algorithm, which uses five statistical climate variables (2-m air temperature average and amplitude, precipitation sum and amplitude, correlation between 2-m air temperature average and precipitation sum). Additionally, extreme weather events (hot days, summer days, tropical nights, extreme precipitation events) are calculated for further comparison and validation. Finding an appropriate analogue permits a more accurate derivation and depiction of necessary climate adaptation efforts and therefore assist decision-making in city planning. As an example of our method, we searched for plausible climate twins for the mid-sized city of Aachen (Germany) at the end of the twenty-first century. Our results show that the French city of Dijon is highly likely to become Aachen’s climate twin by the end of the century for RCP4.5. As for the scenario RCP8.5, no clear European analogue city could be determined, indicating that the city might enter a novel climate. The nearest match suggests the cities of Florence and Prato in Tuscany. However, considering climate indices, the encompassing region of the French–Spanish city triangle Bordeaux–Toulouse–Bilbao is a better fit. The developed algorithm can be applied to any of the cities included in the dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An expanded kinetics model describing injector region desorption

During the initial stages of electron beam injection, absorbed or entrained material can be released into the nascent beam pulse by thermal desorption or electron beam impact. These processes, and subsequent ionization and dissociation, are examined assuming a prototypical temporal beam pulse. An expanded set of kinetic equations that includes thermal desorption, electron-stimulated ion emission, electron impact dissociation, electron impact ionization, and thermal decomposition of adsorbed water molecules is developed. Estimates of the three most important ionized species H 2 O + , H + and OH + are provided for typical injector conditions. Electron impact dissociative ionization of neutral H 2 O is the dominant source of H + under these conditions. Since the abundance of thermally desorbed neutral H 2 O has an exponential rate, the production of H+ is likewise controlled by this exponential desorption rate. Thus thermal management of the confining walls could suppress proton production in the injector region. Thermal decomposition of H 2 O will not be a contributing physical process in the injector region on time scales less than a μs. The formalism is sufficiently flexible to include entrained hydrogen.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1972

On the possibility of explaining features of the latitude variations of Sq(H) and Sq(Z) in the equatorial region by electrical modelling

Curves of H (the horizontal component) and Z (the vertical component) of the magnetic field from a strip with an assigned current-density distribution compiled from the results of electrical modelling are calculated. The calculated curves are compared qualitatively with latitude curves obtained from ground magnetic observatory data. It is shown that the forms of the theoretical H and Z and the experimental latitude variations are qualitatively similar.

Pogrebnoy, V. N.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Toward the application of the Kalman filter to regional open ocean modeling

A partial differential equation model is defined for ocean meteorological prediction and synoptic analysis. The Kalman filter used for data assimilation is described and applied to the one-dimensional linear barotropic quasi-geostrophic model with periodic and open boundary conditions. The model accounts for eddy scale dynamics in the ocean. The assumptions made in the forecast model are discussed, along with comparisons of the error variances expected with the filter and from an objective analysis method. The effectiveness of the Kalman filter is demonstrated and subsequent efforts to extend the filter to two dimensions are indicated.

Miller, R. N.↗