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DOE OSTI2026

Direct cross section measurement of 102 Pd ⁢(𝛾,𝑝) and 102 Pd ⁢(𝛾,𝛼) for the astrophysical 𝑝 process

Background: A handful of neutron-deficient stable nuclei, known as the “p nuclei,” cannot be produced through astrophysical neutron capture processes. Instead, some of these nuclei are proposed to be produced by 𝛾-induced reactions on existing r- and s-process seeds. The specific astrophysical site or sites are not yet identified, however, with uncertainties in the cross sections of these 𝛾-induced reactions playing a role. Databases of reaction rates for astrophysical simulations often rely on theoretical statistical model calculations, such as Hauser-Feshbach, for rates where no experimental information is known. However, reasonable variations in the choice of parametrizations of various nuclear properties can create order-of-magnitude variations in the final predicted cross sections and reaction rates, which are then propagated through the models to the predicted final abundances. Purpose: To better constrain these statistical model calculations and ultimately reduce the uncertainties from the nuclear physics on our understanding of the p nuclei, a measurement of the cross sections of 𝛾-induced reactions on the p-nucleus 102 Pd was undertaken. This work represents the first measurement of its kind, using segmented silicon detectors to measure prompt charged particle emission from 𝛾-induced reactions. Methods: Quasimonoenergetic gamma beams from the High Intensity 𝛾 Source facility bombarded an enriched 102 Pd target. A segmented silicon array was arranged to detect the particles emitted from (𝛾,𝑝) and (𝛾,𝛼) reactions. Results: Reaction cross sections were deduced at multiple 𝛾-beam energies between 10 and 19 MeV, and compared to statistical model calculations using talys-1.96. The 102 Pd ⁢(𝛾,𝑝)⁢ 101 Rh reaction cross section was reasonably well reproduced by a subset of photon strength functions and level densities, though the strength to the ground state of 101 Rh was underestimated at higher incident gamma energies. The 102 Pd ⁢(𝛾,𝛼)⁢ 98 Ru was in general overpredicted by the various alpha-nucleus optical model potentials. Conclusions: While the theoretical cross sections used to model the (𝛾,𝑝) reactions for the p process may be reasonable, a more careful approach is needed in the case of (𝛾,𝛼). Further work to probe gamma-induced reaction cross sections at and near the p nuclei is warranted.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Comment on ''Teleportation of two-mode squeezed states''

We investigate the teleportation scheme of two-mode squeezed states proposed by Adhikari et al.[S. Adhikari et al., Phys. Rev. A 77, 012337 (2008)]. It uses four-mode entangled states to teleport two-mode squeezed states. The fidelity between the original two-mode squeezed states and teleported ones is calculated. The maximal fidelity value of Adhikari's protocol is 0.38, which is incompatible with the fidelity definition with the maximal value 1. In our opinion, one reason is that they calculate the fidelity for multimodes Gaussian states using the fidelity formula for single-mode ones. Another reason is that the covariance matrix of output states should be what is obtained after applying the linear unitary Bogoliubov operations (two cascaded Fourier transformations) on the covariance matrix given in Eq. (12) in their paper. These two reasons result in the incomparable results. In addition, Adhikari's protocol can be simplified to be easily implemented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2013

An estimated 5% of new protein structures solved today represent a new Pfam family

This study uses the Pfam database to show that the sequence redundancy of protein structures deposited in the PDB is increasing. The possible reasons behind this trend are discussed. High-resolution structural knowledge is key to understanding how proteins function at the molecular level. The number of entries in the Protein Data Bank (PDB), the repository of all publicly available protein structures, continues to increase, with more than 8000 structures released in 2012 alone. The authors of this article have studied how structural coverage of the protein-sequence space has changed over time by monitoring the number of Pfam families that acquired their first representative structure each year from 1976 to 2012. Twenty years ago, for every 100 new PDB entries released, an estimated 20 Pfam families acquired their first structure. By 2012, this decreased to only about five families per 100 structures. The reasons behind the slower pace at which previously uncharacterized families are being structurally covered were investigated. It was found that although more than 50% of current Pfam families are still without a structural representative, this set is enriched in families that are small, functionally uncharacterized or rich in problem features such as intrinsically disordered and transmembrane regions. While these are important constraints, the reasons why it may not yet be time to give up the pursuit of a targeted but more comprehensive structural coverage of the protein-sequence space are discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Semantic Framework for Spatial Query Reformulation for Disaster Monitoring Applications

In disasters, since time is of the essence, quick decision making based on actionable insights is desired. In our earlier work, we have demonstrated that the spatial relationships-based queries can play a vital role in the disaster response phase. However, we found that the utilization of spatial relationships rules (i.e. encoded spatial knowledge) via rule reasoning process do not scale well with the increased number of image regions. Most of the available Resource Description Framework (RDF) triplestores do not support rule reasoning due to the computational complexity and undecidable nature of the rule reasoning process. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach for utilizing spatial knowledge encoded in the form of spatial relationship rules. The proposed approach reformulates the spatial query by expanding it with the configuration encoded in the corresponding spatial relationship rule. The preliminary results are promising and show the applicability of the proposed approach during the time critical events such as flood disaster.

Kurte, Kuldeep↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Power System Resilience Metrics and Evaluation Approach

Power system resilience is an emerging topic and plays an essential role in helping the power industry understand and respond to the increasing threats of extreme weather events. The first step of power system resilience analysis is to introduce metrics to quantify the resilience reasonably. Existing resilience metrics are typically restrained by the limited data for extreme event modeling and fall short in terms of physical interpretation and comparability. This paper develops novel quantitative metrics to evaluate power system resilience in pre- and post-event contexts. The developed metrics illustrate clear physical meanings and can be effectively used to compare resilience across different systems under different extreme events. Moreover, the developed metrics can be applied to both transmission and distribution systems. Simulation on a distribution system is employed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed resilience metrics and resilience evaluation approach.

power system resilience↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deadband Voltage Control and Power Buffering for Extreme Fast Charging Station

Voltage fluctuation is one of the most common challenges that electric vehicle charging station (EVCS) may introduce to the power grid. Local reactive power compensation (Q-compensation) capability of bi-directional electric vehicle (EV) chargers can mitigate the steady-state voltage violations caused by the EV charging itself or changes in the neighboring loads. Power buffering, using energy storage system (ESS), can be utilized to address the voltage transients (sags and swells) as a result of EV charging at the EVCS. To address PI controller’s ‘hunting’ issue, this paper proposes a Q-sign triggered deadband voltage control (V-control) method at the point of common coupling (PCC). In addition, to ensure the ramp rate of EV charging is within the allowable limits set forth by the grid code, a ramp rate control is proposed that uses the ESS as a ‘power buffer’. Lastly, different from most reported work in the literature where no explicit limit of the power electronic converters (PECs) is considered, this work considers a reasonable apparent power capacity limit of the PECs when achieving the V-control. This limit also affects the amount of active power that can be obtained from the grid, and subsequently may require ESS to function as ‘load sharing’ device to provide supplemental active power to satisfy EV load. A case study simulated in MATLAB (interfaced with PLECS) is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches for EVCS operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Microwave Passive Ground-Based Retrievals of Cloud and Rain Liquid Water Path in Drizzling Clouds: Challenges and Possibilities

Satellite and ground-based microwave radiometers are routinely used for the retrieval of liquid water path (LWP) under all atmospheric conditions. The retrieval of water vapor and LWP from ground-based radiometers during rain has proved to be a difficult challenge for two principal reasons: the inadequacy of the nonscattering approximation in precipitating clouds and the deposition of rain drops on the instrument's radome. In this paper, we combine model computations and real ground-based, zenith-viewing passive microwave radiometer brightness temperature measurements to investigate how total, cloud, and rain LWP retrievals are affected by assumptions on the cloud drop size distribution (DSD) and under which conditions a nonscattering approximation can be considered reasonably accurate. Results show that until the drop effective diameter is larger than similar to 200 mu m, a nonscattering approximation yields results that are still accurate at frequencies less than 90 GHz. For larger drop sizes, it is shown that higher microwave frequencies contain useful information that can be used to separate cloud and rain LWP provided that the vertical distribution of hydrometeors, as well as the DSD, is reasonably known. The choice of the DSD parameters becomes important to ensure retrievals that are consistent with the measurements. A physical retrieval is tested on a synthetic data set and is then used to retrieve total, cloud, and rain LWP from radiometric measurements during two drizzling cases at the atmospheric radiation measurement Eastern North Atlantic site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Fast compressed sensing-based CBCT reconstruction using Barzilai-Borwein formulation for application to on-line IGRT

Purpose: Compressed sensing theory has enabled an accurate, low-dose cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) reconstruction using a minimal number of noisy projections. However, the reconstruction time remains a significant challenge for practical implementation in the clinic. In this work, we propose a novel gradient projection algorithm, based on the Gradient-Projection-Barzilai-Borwein formulation (GP-BB), that handles the total variation (TV)-norm regularization-based least squares problem for the CBCT reconstruction in a highly efficient manner, with speed acceptable for routine use in the clinic. Methods: CBCT is reconstructed by minimizing an energy function consisting of a data fidelity term and a TV-norm regularization term. Both terms are simultaneously minimized by calculating the gradient projection of the energy function with the step size determined using an approximate Hessian calculation at each iteration, based on the Barzilai-Borwein formulation. To speed up the process, a multiresolution optimization is used. In addition, the entire algorithm was designed to run with a single graphics processing unit (GPU) card. To evaluate the performance, the Shepp-Logan numerical phantom, the CatPhan 600 physical phantom, and a clinically-treated head-and-neck patient were acquired from the TrueBeam system (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA). For each scan, in total, 364 projections were acquired in a 200 deg. rotation. The imager has 1024 x 768 pixels with 0.388 x 0.388-mm resolution. This was down-sampled to 512 x 384 pixels with 0.776 x 0.776-mm resolution for reconstruction. Evenly spaced angles were subsampled and used for varying the number of projections for the image reconstruction. To assess the performance of our GP-BB algorithm, we have implemented and compared with three compressed sensing-type algorithms, the two of which are popular and published (forward-backward splitting techniques), and the other one with a basic line-search technique. In addition, the conventional Feldkamp-Davis-Kress (FDK) reconstruction of the clinical patient data is compared as well. Results: In comparison with the other compressed sensing-type algorithms, our algorithm showed convergence in {<=}30 iterations whereas other published algorithms need at least 50 iterations in order to reconstruct the Shepp-Logan phantom image. With the CatPhan phantom, the GP-BB algorithm achieved a clinically-reasonable image with 40 projections in 12 iterations, in less than 12.6 s. This is at least an order of magnitude faster in reconstruction time compared with the most recent reports utilizing GPU technology given the same input projections. For the head-and-neck clinical scan, clinically-reasonable images were obtained from 120 projections in 34-78 s converging in 12-30 iterations. In this reconstruction range (i.e., 120 projections) the image quality is visually similar to or better than the conventional FDK reconstructed images using 364 projections. This represents a dose reduction of nearly 67% (120/364 projections) while maintaining a reasonable speed in clinical implementation. Conclusions: In this paper, we proposed a novel, fast, low-dose CBCT reconstruction algorithm using the Barzilai-Borwein step-size calculation. A clinically viable head-and-neck image can be obtained within {approx}34-78 s while simultaneously cutting the dose by approximately 67%. This makes our GP-BB algorithm potentially useful in an on-line image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT).

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Interobserver variability in identification of breast tumors in MRI and its implications for prognostic biomarkers and radiogenomics

Purpose: To assess the interobserver variability of readers when outlining breast tumors in MRI, study the reasons behind the variability, and quantify the effect of the variability on algorithmic imaging features extracted from breast MRI. Methods: Four readers annotated breast tumors from the MRI examinations of 50 patients from one institution using a bounding box to indicate a tumor. All of the annotated tumors were biopsy proven cancers. The similarity of bounding boxes was analyzed using Dice coefficients. An automatic tumor segmentation algorithm was used to segment tumors from the readers’ annotations. The segmented tumors were then compared between readers using Dice coefficients as the similarity metric. Cases showing high interobserver variability (average Dice coefficient <0.8) after segmentation were analyzed by a panel of radiologists to identify the reasons causing the low level of agreement. Furthermore, an imaging feature, quantifying tumor and breast tissue enhancement dynamics, was extracted from each segmented tumor for a patient. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were computed between the features for each pair of readers to assess the effect of the annotation on the feature values. Finally, the authors quantified the extent of variation in feature values caused by each of the individual reasons for low agreement. Results: The average agreement between readers in terms of the overlap (Dice coefficient) of the bounding box was 0.60. Automatic segmentation of tumor improved the average Dice coefficient for 92% of the cases to the average value of 0.77. The mean agreement between readers expressed by the correlation coefficient for the imaging feature was 0.96. Conclusions: There is a moderate variability between readers when identifying the rectangular outline of breast tumors on MRI. This variability is alleviated by the automatic segmentation of the tumors. Furthermore, the moderate interobserver variability in terms of the bounding box does not translate into a considerable variability in terms of assessment of enhancement dynamics. The authors propose some additional ways to further reduce the interobserver variability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-405: Development of a Rapid Cardiac Contouring Tool Using Landmark-Driven Modeling

Purpose: This study aims to develop a tool to rapidly delineate cardiac substructures for use in dosimetry for large-scale clinical trial or epidemiological investigations. The goal is to produce a system that can semi-automatically delineate nine cardiac structures to a reasonable accuracy within a couple of minutes. Methods: The cardiac contouring tool employs a Most Similar Atlas method, where a selection criterion is used to pre-select the most similar model to the patient from a library of pre-defined atlases. Sixty contrast-enhanced cardiac computed tomography angiography (CTA) scans (30 male and 30 female) were manually contoured to serve as the atlas library. For each CTA 12 structures were delineated. Kabsch algorithm was used to compute the optimum rotation and translation matrices between the patient and atlas. Minimum root mean squared distance between the patient and atlas after transformation was used to select the most-similar atlas. An initial study using 10 CTA sets was performed to assess system feasibility. Leave-one patient out method was performed, and fit criteria were calculated to evaluate the fit accuracy compared to manual contours. Results: For the pilot study, mean dice indices of .895 were achieved for the whole heart, .867 for the ventricles, and .802 for the atria. In addition, mean distance was measured via the chord length distribution (CLD) between ground truth and the atlas structures for the four coronary arteries. The mean CLD for all coronary arteries was below 14mm, with the left circumflex artery showing the best agreement (7.08mm). Conclusion: The cardiac contouring tool is able to delineate cardiac structures with reasonable accuracy in less than 90 seconds. Pilot data indicates that the system is able to delineate the whole heart and ventricles within a reasonable accuracy using even a limited library. We are extending the atlas sets to 60 adult males and females in total.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2010

Scalar contribution to the BFKL kernel

The contribution of scalar particles to the kernel of the Balitsky-Fadin-Kuraev-Lipatov (BFKL) equation is calculated. A great cancellation between the virtual and real parts of this contribution, analogous to the cancellation in the quark contribution in QCD, is observed. The reason of this cancellation is discovered. This reason has a common nature for particles with any spin. Understanding of this reason permits to obtain the total contribution without the complicated calculations, which are necessary for finding separate pieces.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2012

Hadron spectrum and infrared-finite behavior of QCD running coupling

We study the behavior of the QCD effective coupling α{sub s} in the low-energy region by exploiting the conventional meson spectrum within a relativistic quantum-field model based on analytical confinement of quarks and gluons. The spectra of quark-antiquark and two-gluon bound states are defined by using a master equation similar to the ladder Bethe-Salpeter equation. A new, independent and specific infrared-finite behavior of QCD coupling is found below energy scale ∼1 GeV. Particularly, an infrared-fixed point is extracted at α{sub s}(0) ≅ 0.757 for confinement scale Λ = 345 MeV. We provide a new analytic estimate of the lowest-state glueball mass. As applications, we also estimate masses of some intermediate and heavy mesons as well as the weak-decay constants of light mesons. By introducing only a minimal set of parameters (the quark masses m{sub f} and Λ) we obtain results in reasonable agreement with recent experimental data in a wide range of energy scale ∼0.1–10 GeV. We demonstrate that global properties of some low-energy phenomena may be explained reasonably in the framework of a simple relativistic quantum-field model if one guesses correct symmetry structure of the quark-gluon interaction in the confinement region and uses simple forms of propagators in the hadronisation regime. The model may serve a reasonable framework to describe simultaneously different sectors in low-energy particle physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

MemFriend: Understanding Memory Performance with Spatial-Temporal Affinity

In HPC applications, memory access behavior is one of the main factors affecting performance. Improving an application’s memory access behavior involves optimizing data layout and/or restructuring code, and requires studying spatial-temporal data locality. Existing data locality analyses focus on single-location metrics and are restricted to evaluating temporal locality. We introduce spatial-temporal affinity metrics that quantify temporal access proximity, forward access correlation, and nearby access correlation between pairs of memory locations. We describe methods for distinguishing between potential vs. realized affinity and for reasoning about affinity at multiple resolutions (3D, 2D, 1D). Finally, we construct spatial-temporal affinity signatures that classify memory behavior and that be used to reason about changes in software (data relayout, code refactoring) or hardware (caching, prefetching). We describe methods for signature visualization, interpretation, and quantitative comparison of signatures. We evaluate our methodology using applications with variants that contrast data structures, data layouts and algorithms. We show that spatial-temporal affinity analysis provides novel insights and enables predictive reasoning about application performance when contrasted with reuse distance analysis.

Suriyakumar, Yasodhadevi↗

DOE OSTI2014

Evaluation of Global Monsoon Precipitation Changes based on Five Reanalysis Datasets

With the motivation to identify whether or not a reasonably simulated atmospheric circulation would necessarily lead to a successful reproduction of monsoon precipitation, the performances of five sets of reanalysis data (NCEP2, ERA40, JRA25, ERA-Interim and MERRA) in reproducing the climatology, interannual variation and long-term trend of global monsoon (GM) precipitation are comprehensively evaluated. In order to better understand the variability and long-term trend of GM precipitation, we also examined the major components of water budget, including evaporation, water vapor convergence and the change in local water vapor storage, based on five reanalysis datasets. The results show that all five reanalysis data reasonably reproduce the climatology of GM precipitation. The ERA-Interim (NCEP2) shows the highest (lowest) skill among the five datasets. The observed GM precipitation shows an increasing tendency during 1979-2001 along with a strong interannual variability, which is reasonably reproduced by the five sets of reanalysis data. The observed increasing trend of GM precipitation is dominated by the contribution from the North African, North American and Australian monsoons. All five data fail in reproducing the increasing tendency of North African monsoon precipitation. The wind convergence term in water budget equation dominate the GM precipitation variation, indicating a consistency between the GM precipitation and the seasonal change of prevailing wind.

Climate↗

DOE OSTI2011

Logical Development of the Cell Ontology

Background: The Cell Ontology (CL) is an ontology for the representation of in vivo cell types. As biological ontologies such as the CL grow in complexity, they become increasingly difficult to use and maintain. By making the information in the ontology computable, we can use automated reasoners to detect errors and assist with classification. Here we report on the generation of computable definitions for the hematopoietic cell types in the CL. Results: Computable definitions for over 340 CL classes have been created using a genus-differentia approach. These define cell types according to multiple axes of classification such as the protein complexes found on the surface of a cell type, the biological processes participated in by a cell type, or the phenotypic characteristics associated with a cell type. We employed automated reasoners to verify the ontology and to reveal mistakes in manual curation. The implementation of this process exposed areas in the ontology where new cell type classes were needed to accommodate species-specific expression of cellular markers. Our use of reasoners also inferred new relationships within the CL, and between the CL and the contributing ontologies. This restructured ontology can be used to identify immune cells by flow cytometry, supports sophisticated biological queries involving cells, and helps generate new hypotheses about cell function based on similarities to other cell types. Conclusion: Use of computable definitions enhances the development of the CL and supports the interoperability of OBO ontologies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Watermarks in stream processing systems: semantics and comparative analysis of Apache Flink and Google cloud dataflow

Streaming data processing is an exercise in taming disorder: from oftentimes huge torrents of information, we hope to extract powerful and timely analyses. But when dealing with streaming data, the unbounded and temporally disordered nature of real-world streams introduces a critical challenge: how does one reason about the completeness of a stream that never ends? In this paper, we present a comprehensive definition and analysis of watermarks, a key tool for reasoning about temporal completeness in infinite streams.First, we describe what watermarks are and why they are important, highlighting how they address a suite of stream processing needs that are poorly served by eventually-consistent approaches:• Computing a single correct answer, as in notifications.• Reasoning about a lack of data, as in dip detection.• Performing non-incremental processing over temporal subsets of an infinite stream, as in statistical anomaly detection with cubic spline models.• Safely and punctually garbage collecting obsolete inputs and intermediate state.• Surfacing a reliable signal of overall pipeline health.Second, we describe, evaluate, and compare the semantically equivalent, but starkly different, watermark implementations in two modern stream processing engines: Apache Flink and Google Cloud Dataflow.

Akidau, Tyler↗

DOE OSTI2011

National Energy Efficiency Evaluation, Measurement and Verification (EM&V) Standard: Scoping Study of Issues and Implementation Requirements

This report is a scoping study that identifies issues associated with developing a national evaluation, measurement and verification (EM&V) standard for end-use, non-transportation, energy efficiency activities. The objectives of this study are to identify the scope of such a standard and define EM&V requirements and issues that will need to be addressed in a standard. To explore these issues, we provide and discuss: (1) a set of definitions applicable to an EM&V standard; (2) a literature review of existing guidelines, standards, and 'initiatives' relating to EM&V standards as well as a review of 'bottom-up' versus 'top-down' evaluation approaches; (3) a summary of EM&V related provisions of two recent federal legislative proposals (Congressman Waxman's and Markey's American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 and Senator Bingaman's American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009) that include national efficiency resource requirements; (4) an annotated list of issues that that are likely to be central to, and need to be considered when, developing a national EM&V standard; and (5) a discussion of the implications of such issues. There are three primary reasons for developing a national efficiency EM&V standard. First, some policy makers, regulators and practitioners believe that a national standard would streamline EM&V implementation, reduce costs and complexity, and improve comparability of results across jurisdictions; although there are benefits associated with each jurisdiction setting its own EM&V requirements based on their specific portfolio and evaluation budgets and objectives. Secondly, if energy efficiency is determined by the US Environmental Protection Agency to be a Best Available Control Technology (BACT) for avoiding criteria pollutant and/or greenhouse gas emissions, then a standard can be required for documenting the emission reductions resulting from efficiency actions. The third reason for a national EM&V standard is that such a standard is likely to be required as a result of future federal energy legislation that includes end-use energy efficiency, either as a stand-alone energy-efficiency resource standard (EERS) or as part of a clean energy or renewable energy standard. This study is focused primarily on this third reason and thus explores issues associated with a national EM&V standard if energy efficiency is a qualifying resource in federal clean energy legislation. Developing a national EM&V standard is likely to be a lengthy process; this study focuses on the critical first step of identifying the issues that must be addressed in a future standard. Perhaps the most fundamental of these issues is 'how good is good enough?' This has always been the fundamental issue of EM&V for energy efficiency and is a result of the counter-factual nature of efficiency. Counter-factual in that savings are not measured, but estimated to varying degrees of accuracy by comparing energy consumption after a project (program) is implemented with what is assumed to have been the consumption of energy in the absence of the project (program). Therefore, the how good is good enough question is a short version of asking how certain does one have to be of the energy savings estimate that results from EM&V activities and is that level of certainty properly balanced against the amount of effort (resources, time, money) that is utilized to obtain that level of certainty. The implication is that not only should energy efficiency investments be cost-effective, but EM&V investments should consider risk management principles and thus also balance the costs and value of information derived from EM&V (EM&V should also be cost-effective).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2011

Redundancy of Supply in the International Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Market: Are Fabrication Services Assured?

For several years, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been assessing the reliability of nuclear fuel supply in support of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration. Three international low enriched uranium reserves, which are intended back up the existing and well-functioning nuclear fuel market, are currently moving toward implementation. These backup reserves are intended to provide countries credible assurance that of the uninterrupted supply of nuclear fuel to operate their nuclear power reactors in the event that their primary fuel supply is disrupted, whether for political or other reasons. The efficacy of these backup reserves, however, may be constrained without redundant fabrication services. This report presents the findings of a recent PNNL study that simulated outages of varying durations at specific nuclear fuel fabrication plants. The modeling specifically enabled prediction and visualization of the reactors affected and the degree of fuel delivery delay. The results thus provide insight on the extent of vulnerability to nuclear fuel supply disruption at the level of individual fabrication plants, reactors, and countries. The simulation studies demonstrate that, when a reasonable set of qualification criteria are applied, existing fabrication plants are technically qualified to provide backup fabrication services to the majority of the world's power reactors. The report concludes with an assessment of the redundancy of fuel supply in the nuclear fuel market, and a description of potential extra-market mechanisms to enhance the security of fuel supply in cases where it may be warranted. This report is an assessment of the ability of the existing market to respond to supply disruptions that occur for technical reasons. A forthcoming report will address political disruption scenarios.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗